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	<title>Comments on: Evaluating Defense</title>
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	<link>http://ussmariner.com/2006/01/24/evaluating-defense/</link>
	<description>Seattle Mariners and general baseball discussion with David Cameron and Derek Zumsteg</description>
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		<title>By: JolietJake</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2006/01/24/evaluating-defense/comment-page-1/#comment-87092</link>
		<dc:creator>JolietJake</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 29 Jan 2006 03:51:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=3283#comment-87092</guid>
		<description>I have to wonder how much scouting has changed defense metrics over the last 3 years of play since some teams have dropped advance scouting?

In 2005, using the NLCD for instance, I know the Pirates didn&#039;t have any, the Brewers used interns at home charting pitchers, and the Astros started off the year without it then resumed in June or so.

The end result, in the Pirates case, was an OF often playing out of position, playing too deep (almost no-double depth), and a hord of runners advancing on limited arm strength.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have to wonder how much scouting has changed defense metrics over the last 3 years of play since some teams have dropped advance scouting?</p>
<p>In 2005, using the NLCD for instance, I know the Pirates didn&#8217;t have any, the Brewers used interns at home charting pitchers, and the Astros started off the year without it then resumed in June or so.</p>
<p>The end result, in the Pirates case, was an OF often playing out of position, playing too deep (almost no-double depth), and a hord of runners advancing on limited arm strength.</p>
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		<title>By: David Gassko</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2006/01/24/evaluating-defense/comment-page-1/#comment-86864</link>
		<dc:creator>David Gassko</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Jan 2006 21:48:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=3283#comment-86864</guid>
		<description>The only metric where bad fielders in the OF might effect the team&#039;s other OFers is ZR, where players are effectively penalized for not playing in their zones. That&#039;s going to cause a myriad of problems for ZR which is why it&#039;s dangerous to base anything on ZR only, especially if you know that one of a team&#039;s OFers sucks.

In all other well-constructed metrics, players aren&#039;t going to impact each other&#039;s ratings too much, except with discretionary plays (i.e. Andruw Jones taking all short pop-ups for the Braves instead of second basemen).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The only metric where bad fielders in the OF might effect the team&#8217;s other OFers is ZR, where players are effectively penalized for not playing in their zones. That&#8217;s going to cause a myriad of problems for ZR which is why it&#8217;s dangerous to base anything on ZR only, especially if you know that one of a team&#8217;s OFers sucks.</p>
<p>In all other well-constructed metrics, players aren&#8217;t going to impact each other&#8217;s ratings too much, except with discretionary plays (i.e. Andruw Jones taking all short pop-ups for the Braves instead of second basemen).</p>
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		<title>By: scraps</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2006/01/24/evaluating-defense/comment-page-1/#comment-86862</link>
		<dc:creator>scraps</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Jan 2006 21:31:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=3283#comment-86862</guid>
		<description>I didn&#039;t know the Mariner infield was below average overall defensively.  Since there&#039;s good reason to believe that Seattle&#039;s near the best in the league at third and short, how bad does that mean we were at second and first?  Or is it that Morse and Boone drag the numbers down that far all by themselves?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I didn&#8217;t know the Mariner infield was below average overall defensively.  Since there&#8217;s good reason to believe that Seattle&#8217;s near the best in the league at third and short, how bad does that mean we were at second and first?  Or is it that Morse and Boone drag the numbers down that far all by themselves?</p>
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		<title>By: Evan</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2006/01/24/evaluating-defense/comment-page-1/#comment-86844</link>
		<dc:creator>Evan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Jan 2006 18:29:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=3283#comment-86844</guid>
		<description>When I first saw Win Shares, I didn&#039;t like it.  I didn&#039;t like it because it seemed like you could affect one player&#039;s Win Shares by changing the performance of his teammates.  Essentially, how many Win Shares my specific performance earns differs based on what my team does around me.  And that struck me as absurd, but I could find a sufficiently detailed description of the math to prove it.

Such evidence appears in part 3 of US Patriot&#039;s Win Shares analysis.  So, thanks for the link, Dave.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When I first saw Win Shares, I didn&#8217;t like it.  I didn&#8217;t like it because it seemed like you could affect one player&#8217;s Win Shares by changing the performance of his teammates.  Essentially, how many Win Shares my specific performance earns differs based on what my team does around me.  And that struck me as absurd, but I could find a sufficiently detailed description of the math to prove it.</p>
<p>Such evidence appears in part 3 of US Patriot&#8217;s Win Shares analysis.  So, thanks for the link, Dave.</p>
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		<title>By: Dave</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2006/01/24/evaluating-defense/comment-page-1/#comment-86838</link>
		<dc:creator>Dave</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Jan 2006 17:58:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=3283#comment-86838</guid>
		<description>&lt;em&gt;So really, if I understand these metrics, the fact that Pena and Dunn are horrible has to influence Griffey negativelyâ€¦in essence those guys make centerfield play twice as big as it should. Please show me the light if im in the dark or overstating the weakness of these metrics.&lt;/em&gt;

This is incorrect.  As Matthew notes, the field is cut up into zones of responsibility.  For instance, if historically, CFs have caught 98 percent of balls hit to a specific spot in the field, than it can easily be assumed that ball is well within a normal CFs ability to convert it into an out.  If Griffey, or whoever, can&#039;t get to that ball and it falls for a hit, they&#039;re penalized, and they should be.  

The fact that Adam Dunn is an immobile oaf doesn&#039;t have any bearing on Griffey&#039;s zone of responsibility.  UZR and PMR have done a great job of stripping out the effects of other fielders and the park on a player&#039;s defensive numbers.  The biggest hurdle, at this point, is ball in play distribution.  But BIP distribution errors will generally pop up in the prism perspective looking at a player through many differenent lenses.  Good luck finding numbers that don&#039;t say that Griffey is abysmal defensively.  

I know people are skeptical of defensive metrics, Terry, but they&#039;re far more advanced than you appear to believe.  And there&#039;s significant reason to believe that Jr has lost enough range to be useful in the outfield, even in a corner.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>So really, if I understand these metrics, the fact that Pena and Dunn are horrible has to influence Griffey negativelyâ€¦in essence those guys make centerfield play twice as big as it should. Please show me the light if im in the dark or overstating the weakness of these metrics.</em></p>
<p>This is incorrect.  As Matthew notes, the field is cut up into zones of responsibility.  For instance, if historically, CFs have caught 98 percent of balls hit to a specific spot in the field, than it can easily be assumed that ball is well within a normal CFs ability to convert it into an out.  If Griffey, or whoever, can&#8217;t get to that ball and it falls for a hit, they&#8217;re penalized, and they should be.  </p>
<p>The fact that Adam Dunn is an immobile oaf doesn&#8217;t have any bearing on Griffey&#8217;s zone of responsibility.  UZR and PMR have done a great job of stripping out the effects of other fielders and the park on a player&#8217;s defensive numbers.  The biggest hurdle, at this point, is ball in play distribution.  But BIP distribution errors will generally pop up in the prism perspective looking at a player through many differenent lenses.  Good luck finding numbers that don&#8217;t say that Griffey is abysmal defensively.  </p>
<p>I know people are skeptical of defensive metrics, Terry, but they&#8217;re far more advanced than you appear to believe.  And there&#8217;s significant reason to believe that Jr has lost enough range to be useful in the outfield, even in a corner.</p>
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		<title>By: Matthew Carruth</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2006/01/24/evaluating-defense/comment-page-1/#comment-86835</link>
		<dc:creator>Matthew Carruth</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Jan 2006 17:17:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=3283#comment-86835</guid>
		<description>They certainly can isolate the individual player&#039;s &quot;contribution&quot; by using the zones method. The entire field is cut up into zones and BIP data is used to figure out where the balls end up. It really wouldn&#039;t matter who plays LF or RF because you&#039;d be comparing the CF on the balls a normal CFer should get to based on the accumulation of BIP data.

Or something like that.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>They certainly can isolate the individual player&#8217;s &#8220;contribution&#8221; by using the zones method. The entire field is cut up into zones and BIP data is used to figure out where the balls end up. It really wouldn&#8217;t matter who plays LF or RF because you&#8217;d be comparing the CF on the balls a normal CFer should get to based on the accumulation of BIP data.</p>
<p>Or something like that.</p>
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		<title>By: terry</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2006/01/24/evaluating-defense/comment-page-1/#comment-86834</link>
		<dc:creator>terry</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Jan 2006 16:58:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=3283#comment-86834</guid>
		<description>Im not trying to argue and certainly I dont come from a Griffey fan-club point of view(and clearly Griffey &#039;06 is not the Griffey of &#039;95).  My point is, that if I understand the defensive metrics as they are currently formulated, they are blunt because they cant eliminate/tease out the influence of the *team* contribution to the raw data (unlike FIP for evaluating a pitcher versus ERA). 

So really, if I understand these metrics, the fact that Pena and Dunn are horrible has to influence Griffey negatively...in essence those guys make centerfield play twice as big as it should.  Please show me the light if im in the dark or overstating the weakness of these metrics. 

I would argue with the assertion that Griffey really has no business putting on a glove any longer.  He&#039;d make a fine left fielder.  Also, even if we&#039;d have to agree to disagree on this point, he certainly could try his hand at first base. 

Personally, if I was his agent, Id tell him to lobby for a trade to Baltimore, insist that he DH and probably guarantee at least another 4 years of that special shine on his bat.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Im not trying to argue and certainly I dont come from a Griffey fan-club point of view(and clearly Griffey &#8216;06 is not the Griffey of &#8216;95).  My point is, that if I understand the defensive metrics as they are currently formulated, they are blunt because they cant eliminate/tease out the influence of the *team* contribution to the raw data (unlike FIP for evaluating a pitcher versus ERA). </p>
<p>So really, if I understand these metrics, the fact that Pena and Dunn are horrible has to influence Griffey negatively&#8230;in essence those guys make centerfield play twice as big as it should.  Please show me the light if im in the dark or overstating the weakness of these metrics. </p>
<p>I would argue with the assertion that Griffey really has no business putting on a glove any longer.  He&#8217;d make a fine left fielder.  Also, even if we&#8217;d have to agree to disagree on this point, he certainly could try his hand at first base. </p>
<p>Personally, if I was his agent, Id tell him to lobby for a trade to Baltimore, insist that he DH and probably guarantee at least another 4 years of that special shine on his bat.</p>
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		<title>By: Dave</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2006/01/24/evaluating-defense/comment-page-1/#comment-86833</link>
		<dc:creator>Dave</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Jan 2006 14:32:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=3283#comment-86833</guid>
		<description>Dunn and Pena get abysmal ratings too, and if you look at the rate at which flyballs went for hits against the Reds, they deserve it.  They all suck at defense.

Seriously, there&#039;s no way Griffey&#039;s not a terrible, awful center fielder anymore.  His legs are gone.  At this point, he should really DH.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dunn and Pena get abysmal ratings too, and if you look at the rate at which flyballs went for hits against the Reds, they deserve it.  They all suck at defense.</p>
<p>Seriously, there&#8217;s no way Griffey&#8217;s not a terrible, awful center fielder anymore.  His legs are gone.  At this point, he should really DH.</p>
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		<title>By: terry</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2006/01/24/evaluating-defense/comment-page-1/#comment-86832</link>
		<dc:creator>terry</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Jan 2006 12:24:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=3283#comment-86832</guid>
		<description>#12:  hmmmm....flanked by Adam Dunn and Wily Mo Pena while standing in front of Lopez at short and Aurilia at second while eric Milton pitches....can we please at least entertain the idea that given the blunt nature of defensive metrics, any conclusion about Griffey in center has to carry with it a caveat so large that an all-star cast of the biggest loser could easily find it spacious?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#12:  hmmmm&#8230;.flanked by Adam Dunn and Wily Mo Pena while standing in front of Lopez at short and Aurilia at second while eric Milton pitches&#8230;.can we please at least entertain the idea that given the blunt nature of defensive metrics, any conclusion about Griffey in center has to carry with it a caveat so large that an all-star cast of the biggest loser could easily find it spacious?</p>
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		<title>By: Mike Lien</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2006/01/24/evaluating-defense/comment-page-1/#comment-86831</link>
		<dc:creator>Mike Lien</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Jan 2006 07:51:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=3283#comment-86831</guid>
		<description>Does the relative strength of the M&#039;s outfielders over the life of safeco field affect its park rating or is it merely the difference between OF&#039;ers performance at safeco vs. performance on the road?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Does the relative strength of the M&#8217;s outfielders over the life of safeco field affect its park rating or is it merely the difference between OF&#8217;ers performance at safeco vs. performance on the road?</p>
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