Position Roundtable: Starting Third Base
Jeff
I’m convinced most Mariner fans suffer from 3TSD: third-base traumatic stress disorder. Scads of at-bats by Jeff Cirillo and Scott Spiezio sent observers into such a funk that we’re convinced the team will never have a hot bat at the hot corner.
How else to explain the widespread pessimism about Adrian Beltre? It’s true that the monster patrolling Chavez Ravine in 2004 didn’t show up in Safeco Field last year, and it’s further true that a $64 million contract brings the weight of expectation.
But we’re talking about a player that will turn 27 just as the season starts, is durable barring freakish medical problems and plays terrific defense. Beltre is entering his prime, and there are serious grounds for anticipating a rebound.
Theories abound about the disparity between his 2004 and 2005. Was 2004 a contract-year fluke? Did those bone spurs in his ankle force him to keep his weight back? Did last year’s hamstring problems hinder him more than anyone let on?
Time will tell whether any of these hold water. In the meantime, if Beltre can bounce back to his career averages (a .327 OBP and .455 SLG, for a .782 OPS), he’ll be a help. If he can split the difference between those and his MVP year (.388/.629/1.017), he’ll be an All-Star.
And if he can be the monster again, he’ll cure us all of 3TSD.
Derek
Beltre, for whatever reason, would not stop swinging at the low-and-out pitch for any reasonable length of time. That’s the bad part, and if he can’t fix that, it’s going to be real hard for him to be a solid contributor. I hope the new hitting coach can work with him, but if we could know for sure that it was the bone spur that caused him to lay off that pitch, wouldn’t you seriously consider having an artificial one implanted? Sure, it’s painful. But isn’t the difference between 04 and 05 Beltre worth some discomfort?
Sorry, I got a little silly there. Here’s the good thing: for all the complaints about that huge problem in his approach, that’s really the only complaint. He spread the ball around well (look at his hit chart, for instance, it’s a great distribution). The fly outs, if anything, were a little more to right. Except for frequency of hits, it’s only slightly less pull-hitting compared to his 2004 chart — whereas if you look at his 2002/2003 years, they’re much more pull-centric.
So when he’s making good swings, he’s putting the ball all over.
The approach is the start and the end of Beltre. If he lays off that pitch, he’ll be great. But can he? He’s done it before in his career.
Whether he has to be injured to do it will likely determine whether or not Pentland finds a nice, heavy ball peen hammer made of high-quality steal with a non-slip grip and Beltre has an accident in the clubhouse.
Dave
Watching him wave at that slider was painful. But, for me, the more enduring memory is him fouling off the hit-me fastball. He missed a ton of hittable pitches during the season. His batting average plus slugging on fastballs dropped 300 points from 2004 to last year. Whatever caused him to not be to get around on a fastball was, in my opinion, the same thing that caused him to chase that crazy slider; pitch recognition. His timing was off the whole year. He’d wave at pitches as they were bouncing in the dirt and stare at 88 MPH meatballs that floated across the plate.
I can only hope that his pitch recognition improves with experience, because Derek’s right, if his approach doesn’t change, he’s screwed.
So, what do I expect from Beltre? Well, honestly, I don’t really know what to expect. The guy has a great package of physical skills; bat speed, quick wrists, huge power, and a swing without many holes. His problems are basically all mental, and our ability to project performance based on a player’s mindset is nil. All we can really do is acknowledge a wide range of potential outcomes; he could hit .300 with power and be an all-star, or, just as easily, he could hit .240 and be a drag on the line-up.
Beltre typifies the Mariner roster. There’s potential for greatness, but there’s very little performance certainty. On upside alone, Beltre’s probably the best third baseman in the game. When you factor in the risks, he falls quite a bit. The M’s roster is full of Adrian Beltre types. If everything clicks, look out world. But rarely does everything click.
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“On upside alone, Beltre’s probably the best third baseman in the game.”
To be nitpicky, what do you mean by this, exactly? It’s tough for me to imagine, say Beltre’s 90th percentile projection being better than any other 3B in the game, so I’m guessing that’s not what you mean. It’s also tough for me to envision a season that Beltre could have that, say, Alex Rodriguez couldn’t have.
I guess I see where his upside is an All-Star third baseman, I just don’t see what he has that sets him apart as having the best upside.
The nice thing is, that either way, at least we know he’ll be solid defensively…although then again, Cirillo was solid defensively. And he really wasn’t good.
I think they need to hit Beltre down further in the order to take some pressure off of him. He just simply tried too hard last year, thus the repeated flailing at the low and away sliders. If, as reported, Hargrove wants to alternate left and right handed batters then the middle of the order should be:
3.Ibanez
4.Sexson
5.Everett
6.Beltre
If not, he should hit fifth. If he just relaxes and plays his game, in 2006 he will hit .280/.330/480 with 25 bombs and play great defense. I think he will also become a team leader. I’m really looking forward to watching him play this year.
re Beltre and the slider low-and-away:
See this piece by Jeff Sulivann at Lookout Landing.
Dave’s comment above echo Jeff’s thoughts. The big problem wasn’t Beltre chasing the low-and-away slider; it was Beltre not connecting on other pitches he should have been driving.
In Dale Murphy’s final years, he couldn’t hit the low and away pitch to save his life. What’s worse, he couldn’t keep from swinging at it, even if wasn’t near the strike zone. Until last year, I hadn’t seen that again from a high profile player. Then along came Beltre. I still have high hopes for Adrian. Base on the Murphy experience, however, I have low expectations about him ever producing to the level of his contract, which could lead to more pressure and even worse numbers. True, Murphy and Beltre aren’t the same player and Dale was older at the time of his woes (or whiffs), but I can’t get past the similarity of their problem.
The beliefs that hitters are pressured more/relaxed more in different parts of the lineup and that major league hitters respond to the different amounts of pressure differently are wholly unsupported by any evidence. It’s nice and easy to think, but there’s really no reason to think that it caused any of Beltre’s problems, or that moving him in the order would fix it.
That’s a really nice post by Jeff Sullivan @ LL, btw. I don’t agree with, him on some of it (if 20% of pitches to him were of a kind that he can’t deal with at all, that’s a big deal, and might be bigger than hitting fastballs worse than before, for instance), but it’s definately both interesting and well-thought-out.
“His batting average plus slugging on fastballs dropped 300 points from 2004 to last year. Whatever caused him to not be to get around on a fastball was, in my opinion, the same thing that caused him to chase that crazy slider; pitch recognition.”
Any chance the ghost of Mike Cameron is still at play here? That is, does any one put any stock in the possibility that Safeco field makes it more difficult to pick up the ball out of the pitchers’ hands?
Oh wait. I looked at his home/away splits, and while he slugged a little better away (Safeco being a pitcher’s park) his numbers actually seem a little better at home. The mystery continues…
Home: .263/.312/.382
Away: .248/.295/.440
There is evidence that used to be true. When the hitters were complaining about the batters’ eye, it may well have been harder to see the ball out of the pitcher’s hand.
That problem seems to have been solved.
The hitting background is better but I’m not convinced it’s SOLVED.
Mariners games averaged 10.7 K/G on the road (both teams combined) and 12.4 K/G at home, at 15% increase. I think that suggests hitters don’t see as well at Safeco. BB are almost exactly the same, for what it’s worth. The 15% increase was true in 2004 as well.
I think the problem with chasing the low and away breaking ball and not hitting the fastball are the same problem. Call it confidence or whatever but he was second guessing himself. A power hitter doesn’t second guess, he crushes the fastball (even if he’s totally fooled he swings like he was crushing the fastball). A dose of success or confidence or maybe just knowing he’s comming back to somehting familiar instead of something completely new could be just what Beltre needs.
I say the odds are in favor of him bouncing back. Wouldn’t it be glorious if he and Sexson both hit more than 40 dingers next year? I know wanting doesn’t make it so, but there’s too many things that indicate Beltre has the tools to recover and get back to being a monster.
I don’t think it was all Safeco. He posted a .295 OBP on the road in ~340 PA. Small sample size, but …
Also he K’d more and Walked less on the road, but hit more home-runs and doubles.
I expect a slight bounce back, but a monster??? I won’t hold my breath. However, I really don’t think adding a 5-10 dingers is out of line considering his tools and other aspects of his game, and his age. I’ll take a .750-.800 OPS 3B w/ some pop in his bat and a slick glove over total bust at this point. Here’s to hoping!
SPLIT AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
Home 285 35 75 13 0 7 43 18 3 52 .263 .312 .382 .694
Away 318 34 79 23 1 12 44 20 2 56 .248 .295 .440 .736
I think Dave (and in a different way, Jeff at LL) nailed this when making the observation that not hitting the fastball and chasing the slider out of the zone is part and parcel the same problem — even if they have to guess at the “why” part (though I share the guess that it is pitch recognition), and this is really a really discouraging thought. Jeff, at LL, surmised that this could be due to unfamiliarity with AL pitchers, and therefore that it will get better with AL experience, but other than that, what is to account for pitch recognition problems that we might reasonably expect will change? I really can’t think of any . . ..
To bring up Mike Cameron again: it could be his eyes. They should already have had an eye doctor give him a work-over, but if they haven’t, they certainly should. Plus, that’s a pretty low-cost fix.
I have a question….
Not counting age-related declines, how many examples are there of a player having such a single huge season in their contract year, then not coming close to repeating that performance?
On the other hand, how common is it for very good players to have really bad seasons? For instance, suppose 2004 was Beltre’s breakout year, but was pretty indicative of what he can do during his prime. How often do players that play at that level just totally bomb for a year, then go on like nothing happened?
Scads of at-bats by Jeff Cirillo and Scott Spiezio sent observers into such a funk that we’re convinced the team will never have a hot bat at the hot corner.
Don’t forget Jimmy Presley, Darnell Coles, Todd Cruz, Larry Milbourne, Russ Davis…
Out of almost 30 years for the franchise, we’ve had a grand total of maybe 5-7 years where somebody good was at the positions (the first couple of years of Presley before HE swung at everything on the same continent and Edgar’s years there- you can maybe argue Blowers for a year or two). Everything else runs from below-average but not awful (David Bell) to horrific (Davis, Cirillo).
They aren’t the only franchise who’s had something like this happen (the White Sox had a run like that)…but it is pretty amazing.
For what its worth
AL (2005): PA= 588 (.248, .289, .404)
NL (2005): PA= 57 (.333, .386, .509)
I normally trust what I read, and don’t do the math myself. So, somebody should check my math. Additionally, the NL at bats are terribly limited and sample size issues, plus bias brought on by a limited number of opponents, further blurs the picture. Still, those are, statistical significance aside, very different looking players.
Perhaps beltre’s troubles are an AL/NL thing combined with pitch recognition. That seems like something that time can fix.
RE:#16
Forgot hot corner legend Doug Strange…
I wrote:
And Derek replied:
That’s a good point. God, I hope that’s it. If it is, it’s hard to imagine (given how much we read about Boone’s laser eye-surgery a year ago) that we wouldn’t have heard about it yet, though.
#18
Doug Strange gets a pass. He walked against David Cone.
I believe in 2004 that Beltre started the year down in the order for the Dodgers and then towards the middle of the season they moved him up. Maybe for some players the stress of hitting at the top of the order is too much for them and they put pressure on themselves. Hitting problems for Adrian seem to be psychological so why not try different a place in the order to see if it helps.
Do you have any evidence, like splits based on where he hits in the order, that support that argument?
“On upside alone, Beltre’s probably the best third baseman in the game.â€Â
Hmmm, David Wright is already better, and being 4 years younger, has more upside…
Don’t forget Jimmy Presley, Darnell Coles, Todd Cruz, Larry Milbourne, Russ Davis…
At least Presley and Davis got their OPS above .800 one time each. Other times they were mid to high .700s. No, they weren’t dominating and great, not like what Beltre’s upside is, but at least they gave us a glimmer of hope at times.
I saw Presley’s last couple of years (when he made Beltre look like Joe Sewell), and Davis was a butcher at 3B.
Wright’s year last year was not, according to my somewhat inconsistant memory, as good as Beltre’s from ’04. Yeah, Wright’s younger, and an incredible player, but I don’t know if he’ll have Beltre’s potential power. And while I don’t know much about Wright’s defense, it couldn’t be too much better than Beltre.,,,
I went looking for Beltre’s batting order splits, but ESPN’s website is suffering from winter neglect. However, the site did show that Beltre was far better (800+ OPS) vs lefties than righties (688 OPS). As I recall, Beltre’s calling card was hitting righties better than lefties. Didn’t happen last year.
chris d wrote:
And Derek replied:
I share Derek’s skepticism about this theory.
I went looking, too, and had similar issues with ESPN’s site. Other sites, however, show that on his career, Beltre has hit best hitting fourth (minimum 250 AB), where he has hit .318/.381/.601 in 449 AB. Next best (barely) is hitting seventh, at .275/.336/.446 in 1150 AB. He has hit .267/.321/.471 in 660 AB from the fifth slot, which depending on what you value might be considered slightly better that his 7th slot numbers. Realistically, though, his career numbers anywhere other than the 4th slot aren’t a lot different: in the #3 hole, he’s hit .275/.315/.436 in 374 AB, and in the #6 slot, he’s hit .261/.314/.430 in 970 AB. Historically, there isn’t much evidence that hitting lower in the order has helped Beltre’s production.
OK, you say, but 2004 stood out from his career, and it is *that* season chris was referring to and hopes Beltre can replicate. Well, in 2004, he hit better in the #3 (.400/.400/.800 in only 15 AB) and #4 (.340/.411/.657 in 353 ABs) than he did in the MOTO spots (#5 – .313/.340/.542 in 96 ABs; #6 – .297/.352/.500 in 64 ABs) except #7, where he hit .338/.347/.662 in 68 ABs — not really a lot better (and a much smaller sample) than his #4 numbers.
Surely it is worth trying to figure out what, psychologically, may be hindering Beltre. But to just start moving him around in the line-up willy-nilly, when there really isn’t any evidence to suggest that it will help, might actually do more harm than good. Rather than help Beltre relax, it could end up just signalling the team’s continuing lack of confidence in him . . ..
I can’t believe nobody’s noticed this yet, but, Jeff, you’ve got his career averages waaaaaaaay wrong.
They’re right. He used OBP/SLG/OPS for his splits. That’s not AVG/OBP/SLG (if that’s what you were thinking). He’d have been Barry Bonds for his career if they were.
Perhaps it’s just me, but is there much value in providing OBP, SLG, and then OBP + SLG (particularly without explanation)?
Jeff had mono, he’s been so wiped out I’m impressed he can hit more than one key in a day. Cut him some slack, please.
Chris and Derek are both right. I intentionally used OBP/SLG/OPS as part of my silent protest against the tyranny of batting average, and I’m also so mononucleotized that purple monkey dishwasher.
And I’ll make a note in the post.
Well, I certainly expect better, Jeff, given the vast sum I pay for your work on the site. In all seriousness, thanks and no worries. Slack given.
I’ve been calling it the Curse of David Bell since Cirillo looked like a hack and it continues…
…we’re talking about a player that will turn 27 just as the season starts, is durable barring freakish medical problems and plays terrific defense. Beltre is entering his prime, and there are serious grounds for anticipating a rebound.
Dear Mariners Fans,
Speaking as a Dodger fan, well… welcome to what we told ourselves in 2002 and 2003. Every. Single. At. Bat. Except maybe toward the end of the season, when Beltre usually managed to pick up, but the guy had a fluke 2004, maybe the biggest by any third baseman in history. And the M’s paid him as though he was going to do that every year. The Dodgers made him a good offer, but in the end — like all Boras clients eventually do — he went for the money, and, well, here we (you, actually) are.
– Love,
R.
Oh, and by the way —
Beltre, for whatever reason, would not stop swinging at the low-and-out pitch for any reasonable length of time. That’s the bad part, and if he can’t fix that, it’s going to be real hard for him to be a solid contributor.
Yeah. I remember that, too.
I debunked the “late-season” myth here. I don’t have the pitch type data Dave looked at, so I can’t speak to your other point.
And as to whether it was the biggest fluke year ever by a third baseman… no.
A V G / O B P / S L G
Season Total CPM Month
==============================================
2003 .240/.290/.424 Sep. .305/.342/.543
2002 .257/.303/.426 Aug. .320/.366/.524
where CPM=cherry-picked month. I understand your point about his 2003 end of season being a leadup to the 2004 year, but I’m not sure there’s anything more to that than wishcasting.
As to the other comment — well, I don’t have anything to back this up other than watching him swing and miss at a thousand low-and-away sliders. I do remember one specific game in interleague play against the Angels in 2003 when Kevin Appier was on the mound. It was a long, awful offensive year for the Dodgers, one in which Shawn Green inspired Jon Weisman to write about Green’s impending career collapse, and the Dodgers to take desperate chances on placeholders like Daryle Ward, nobodies like Jeromy Burnitz, and the washed-up corpse of Rickey Henderson. The pressure was really killing Beltre, whose “potential” tag had really started to wear thin, especially because he still couldn’t lay off that low outside slider. With a two-strike count on Beltre, I was just looking at Appier and thinking, he’s gonna get that slider.
It came.
He swung at it.
Inning over.
Picking one month out of candidate months to support your thesis doesn’t work. I could as easily pick out bad late-season months and argue that he always runs out of gas late in the season. His 2004 September was way below July and August and right at season average! His 2002 September was horrible!
Month to month splits aren’t useful, and they support no argument.