Sports Illustrated AL West Preview
Ever wish you could engage your inner contrarian and find that the engine just won’t fire up? That’s how I feel after reading SI’s AL West preview. Nits are absolutely available for picking, but for the most part, there’s little in the larger narrative to disagree with.
Upshot here:
The only team left out of the divisional mix is the Mariners. Seattle tried to get Millwood but had to settle for Washburn. The M’s were looking for a big slugger but only got free-agent DH Carl Everett. They did score a coup of sorts in signing Japanese catcher Kenji Johjima to a three-year, $16.5 million deal. For a team that lost 93 games in ’05, though, that won’t be nearly enough.
The author, John Donovan, lauds Johjima and Felix — though not enough in the case of the latter, I’d argue — and concludes that Oakland’s the division favorite, Texas is the most improved team, and Anaheim’s not out of the picture. It’s quite early yet to be drawing firm conclusions, but I’d have to say that this broad sketch seems accurate to me.
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The link doesn’t work correctly.
I fixed it.
Anaheim’s not out of the picture. …
…but we are.
Sad but true, barring the unpredictable. So, does 81-81 but still in last place (like the Nationals last year in the NL East) still save Bavasi’s job
Hard to disagree with this. If the M’s shouldn’t be picked to finish last, then who should? Man, is it hard to look at all the pitching Billy Beane has assembled compared to the M’s. How does he do it?
Well, for starters, Beane did not give away all of his ealry round draft choices from 2000 to 2004.
And Beane also had some nice pieces to trade prior to last season.
And Beane also offered arbitration to departing free aents so he was able to collect even more high draft picks.
I predict a massive housecleaning if we finish fourth again this year. BAvase, Hargrove et al will probably be goats in the worst way.
I still think 81-81 is a pipedream…..
I’m thinking 80 wins is a stretch also but at Baseball Prospectus, they came out with team depth charts in their fantasy section (subscribers only)and have each team’s record pegged based on runs scored and runs allowed. They have the M’s with 83 wins. That’s still last place in the AL West, behind Oakland (95 wins), and Texas and Anaheim (both with 84 wins). It’s surprising.
BP doesn’t do a great job of projecting defense, so I’d put them in 2nd place using just BP’s offense projections and expected defense.
It’s hard to imagine that a team with a lineup that features Vlad, Anderson, Figgins & Kotchman and a rotation of Colon, Escobar, Lackey, Santana & Weaver would be out of the picture.
re 13, It seems sensible to me, I kinda figure that last year we were basically a 70 win team. Add 2 wins a piece, give or take, for betancourt, lopez, johjima & washburn and 3-4 for felix beltre and ichiro get a little better and richie and raul get a little worse. That puts us around a .500 team.
re 10, I mean.
somehow, I’m just not convinced Texas is that much better. M’s are adding Soriano this year, too. I think the national writers perhaps forget to overvalue him like I do. (As a Sox fan, the way he struck out Nomar that time was brutal. No chance.) I think the M’s have a good shot at 3rd, maybe second if the Angel’s have any key injuries.
Of course I thought the White Sox and Astros wouldn’t even make the playoffs last year, so what do I know.
“Vlad, Anderson, Figgins & Kotchman”
Anderson and Kotchman are pretty below average for their position and Figgins is not that much of a force either.
Besides Vlad, the Angels just have no hitting. None.
The only team left out of the divisional mix is the Mariners. Seattle tried to get Millwood but had to settle for Washburn. The M’s were looking for a big slugger but only got free-agent DH Carl Everett. They did score a coup of sorts in signing Japanese catcher Kenji Johjima to a three-year, $16.5 million deal. For a team that lost 93 games in ‘05, though, that won’t be nearly enough.
Why do I have the feeling that this will be the Mariners’ “Sports Illustrated AL West Preview” for the next oh … 10 years.
We don’t know what they’ll get out of Kotchman. His trials at the major league level haven’t worked out, but he’s put up some stellar minor league numbers. Maybe he washes, maybe not, but it’s too early to bury him.
Still, I can’t get excited about the Angels’ hitting (except from the point of view of a Mariners fan). If the M’s manage third, I think it will be at the expense of the Angels.
That said, I don’t think Texas is particularly deep. They seem vulnerable to a few weel-placed injuries (as are the M’s). The Rangers have a lot of downside risk.
I think we can all agree that the A’s are a lock.
Hey guys, I know a great way for the M’s to propel themselves into instant contenders in the West. It would appear that Scott Rolen is available now that St Louis has inked Scott Spezio. He’s probably good for about 5 wins if his shoulder holds up. The M’s should make a play for him…. 😛
Isn’t this right about the time when someone says we should trade for Ryan Howard?
“We don’t know what they’ll get out of Kotchman. His trials at the major league level haven’t worked out, but he’s put up some stellar minor league numbers. Maybe he washes, maybe not, but it’s too early to bury him.”
Long term? Sure, I’ll agree it’s too early. But not even in his minor league numbers has he shown the power of an average 1B and I seriously doubt he gets there in 2006.
That’s not true.
Kotchman’s minor league SLG line is ~45 points above a major league average 1B’s lines, and he’s been young for his levels. Even the translated minor league park-adjusted numbers put his power over the last couple of years at about 1B average.
SLG yes, but his ISO has been below avg even at his peak. His SLG has been driven by a high BA.
Larry Stone has an early look at the AL West this morning…
FWIW, Larue talks to Bobby Livingston and Elaine Thompson, one of the best photographers in the AP pool, is on her annual spring visit to the Mariner/Padre complex; there are some good shots out of Peoria. Man, those jerseys are still ugly.
Years ago these pre-season division analyses were round-file fodder, because they were written in November before most of the offseason deals were made. At least that was the case back when all we could rely on was the printed, hard copy word.
Now that they can be filed online with a lot more immediacy, the analyses depend more on who’s doing them, than when…
A successful Mariner’s team (vs the division or otherwise) depends on too many unlikely variables to be probable.
It’s to the point that it’s improbable (who doesn’t place the M’s last?).
This could be the set up for that unlikely season that gets us all a flutter.
The biggest X-factor in all this is the staff. One or more pitchers has to surprise us. Who will it be? (rhetorical question)
I still think 81-81 is a pipedream…..
Why? A full season of Felix, even as the 5 and missing some starts means this team is better. There’s no freaking WAY C is going to be a .550 OPS black hole again, even if Johjima’s a disappointment. As a group, you can reasonably project Beltre/Betancourt/Lopez/Reed to collectively improve- that’s almost half of the lineup. And as bad as Washburn’s been made out to be, he’s not Aaron Sele or Ryan Franklin.
The team has issues (like thinking Carl Everett deserves to be a full time DH making 4 million, and being unduly attached to Meche’s and Thornton’s fastball velocity without noticing their lack of strike zone command)…but I can’t see this team being worse on paper than last year’s team, which had a Pythag projection of 76-86… and generally, teams that underperform Pythag bounce back the next year.
but I can’t see this team being worse on paper than last year’s team
Right! As much as we’ve been unhappy with the off-season moves — basically because the M’s overpaid for what they got — they did add talent without losing anything from last year’s team. The only place where this team is significantly worse than 2005 is Winn -> Everett and even there it was only 2/3 season of Winn followed by 1/3 of Dobbs, Snelling, Morse, Bloomquist and Everett is actually an improvement on the latter.
Johjima, Felix, and Washburn are a huge improvement over 2005 C’s, Sele, Franklin and 10 Felix starts.
That said I can’t project the Mariners as being better than the 4th place team, but it’s a near 500 4th place. There’s great upside potential — if Felix is a Cy Young contender, Reed, Beltre, and Ichiro have offensive jumps, Meche and Pineiro both pitch like 4th starters, Lopez breaks out and his defense is a above average, and Johjima’s offense comes over and he’s an all-star, Moyer is optimized to get 22 home starts and repeats his 2005 home numbers, this becomes a 100+ win team. Obviously it’s unlikely ALL of those happen, but they also don’t need 100 wins to win the division. And certainly mid 80s will get them out of last place and they only need a few of the above to happen for that.