PI: Bavasi’s job security
Another article on the axe sitting next to the sharpening wheel in Armstrong’s office.
Bavasi denies there’s anything additionally stressful about having to win this season:
“I don’t think there’s extra pressure,” Bavasi said. “I know that it’s natural for people who haven’t been in this game and who haven’t worked in this game to think about it and ask the question.
“I get it. But there’s a way to build a sound organization from one that was not. There are not a lot of shortcuts. There are no magic bullets.”
While this is a spring training storyline, it’s not going to be resolved for a long time yet — they’re not going to fire anyone until at least a couple months into the year, if it happens.
More good stuff from Kirby Arnold at the Everett Herald: only Mike Hargrove has lost weight. Everyone else is bigger and buffer. Morse, suspended for failing a steroid test last year?
“Mike Morse is huge,” [Hargrove] said of the team’s 6-foot-5, 225-pound infielder/outfielder. “He was a big kid before and he’s a bigger kid now.”
Pitchers and catcher! Pitchers and catchers!
Plus, of course, Willie Bloomquist, the Shane Monahan of these Mariners, who’s been hanging around camp for the convenience of baseball writers who need quotes about the Mariners building a winning team. And, obviously, the coaching staff sees him working out and being intense, which helps his campaign to start at second this year. How dedicated is Bloomquist? He lives in Arizona. Those are the little things that don’t show up in boxscores.
So big questions with the pitching staff that’ll be settled in spring training:
Can anyone wrangle a starting job away from Pineiro/Meche?
Be it Foppert, Nageotte, or even (still hoping) Soriano, there’s hope for further improvement on the pitching side.
Who makes up the bullpen?
If Hargrove (ugh) chooses to go with a 13-man pitching staff, he’ll be working through some candidates. L-Guardado, R-Soriano, R-Mateo, R-Putz are obvious locks, L-Sherrill should be, and then there’s two slots between L-Thornton and a whole bunch of possibilities. Will Thornton’s service time status again lock the team into keeping him on the team if there are better options?
Welcome, everyone, to Small Sample Size Theater. It’s a lot better than No Sample Size Theatre.
Mailbag: Hargrove says Foppert’s ‘in the mix’
Like Forrest Gump’s box of chocolates, you never know what you’re going to get with MLB.com’s Mariners Mailbag.
Mixed in with an assortment of questions best described as “random,” this one contains a brief remark from Mike Hargrove about how Jesse Foppert will get a shot to crack the rotation.
While the Mariners starting rotation appears to be set with Jamie Moyer, Joel Pineiro, Jarrod Washburn, Gil Meche and Felix Hernandez, manager Mike Hargrove said recently that Foppert has a chance to impress the team in March.
“He’s coming to Spring Training,” Hargrove said. “We will see. I think that given the state of our starting rotation at the end of the year last year, going into Spring Training, everybody is in the mix.”
Sure, this is manager-speak, and it’s important not to put too much stock in it. If Foppert’s healthy and gets a chance, though, I’m really excited to see what the prize acquisition of the Randy Winn trade can do.
[An important sidenote: can we agree that Jesse Foppert’s nickname should be “Fopp?” It’s unique, it fits, and it even has a local connection due to Soundgarden’s cover of the Ohio Players nugget.
Of course, we all know he will end up being called “Foppie,” but let’s beat on, boats against the current, anyhow.]
Position Roundtable: Starting Third Base
Jeff
I’m convinced most Mariner fans suffer from 3TSD: third-base traumatic stress disorder. Scads of at-bats by Jeff Cirillo and Scott Spiezio sent observers into such a funk that we’re convinced the team will never have a hot bat at the hot corner.
How else to explain the widespread pessimism about Adrian Beltre? It’s true that the monster patrolling Chavez Ravine in 2004 didn’t show up in Safeco Field last year, and it’s further true that a $64 million contract brings the weight of expectation.
But we’re talking about a player that will turn 27 just as the season starts, is durable barring freakish medical problems and plays terrific defense. Beltre is entering his prime, and there are serious grounds for anticipating a rebound.
Theories abound about the disparity between his 2004 and 2005. Was 2004 a contract-year fluke? Did those bone spurs in his ankle force him to keep his weight back? Did last year’s hamstring problems hinder him more than anyone let on?
Time will tell whether any of these hold water. In the meantime, if Beltre can bounce back to his career averages (a .327 OBP and .455 SLG, for a .782 OPS), he’ll be a help. If he can split the difference between those and his MVP year (.388/.629/1.017), he’ll be an All-Star.
And if he can be the monster again, he’ll cure us all of 3TSD.
Derek
Beltre, for whatever reason, would not stop swinging at the low-and-out pitch for any reasonable length of time. That’s the bad part, and if he can’t fix that, it’s going to be real hard for him to be a solid contributor. I hope the new hitting coach can work with him, but if we could know for sure that it was the bone spur that caused him to lay off that pitch, wouldn’t you seriously consider having an artificial one implanted? Sure, it’s painful. But isn’t the difference between 04 and 05 Beltre worth some discomfort?
Sorry, I got a little silly there. Here’s the good thing: for all the complaints about that huge problem in his approach, that’s really the only complaint. He spread the ball around well (look at his hit chart, for instance, it’s a great distribution). The fly outs, if anything, were a little more to right. Except for frequency of hits, it’s only slightly less pull-hitting compared to his 2004 chart — whereas if you look at his 2002/2003 years, they’re much more pull-centric.
So when he’s making good swings, he’s putting the ball all over.
The approach is the start and the end of Beltre. If he lays off that pitch, he’ll be great. But can he? He’s done it before in his career.
Whether he has to be injured to do it will likely determine whether or not Pentland finds a nice, heavy ball peen hammer made of high-quality steal with a non-slip grip and Beltre has an accident in the clubhouse.
Dave
Watching him wave at that slider was painful. But, for me, the more enduring memory is him fouling off the hit-me fastball. He missed a ton of hittable pitches during the season. His batting average plus slugging on fastballs dropped 300 points from 2004 to last year. Whatever caused him to not be to get around on a fastball was, in my opinion, the same thing that caused him to chase that crazy slider; pitch recognition. His timing was off the whole year. He’d wave at pitches as they were bouncing in the dirt and stare at 88 MPH meatballs that floated across the plate.
I can only hope that his pitch recognition improves with experience, because Derek’s right, if his approach doesn’t change, he’s screwed.
So, what do I expect from Beltre? Well, honestly, I don’t really know what to expect. The guy has a great package of physical skills; bat speed, quick wrists, huge power, and a swing without many holes. His problems are basically all mental, and our ability to project performance based on a player’s mindset is nil. All we can really do is acknowledge a wide range of potential outcomes; he could hit .300 with power and be an all-star, or, just as easily, he could hit .240 and be a drag on the line-up.
Beltre typifies the Mariner roster. There’s potential for greatness, but there’s very little performance certainty. On upside alone, Beltre’s probably the best third baseman in the game. When you factor in the risks, he falls quite a bit. The M’s roster is full of Adrian Beltre types. If everything clicks, look out world. But rarely does everything click.
Willie Bloomquist, starting second baseman
I’d like to apologize for our recent position roundtable where we discussed the second base position as if it was Jose Lopez’s. This was so obvious that we didn’t even take time to dismiss the position battle. After all, given every opportunity to start regularly, Bloomquist has been an abject failure, and Lopez, even if he didn’t improve at all from last year, would help the team much more.
Nope! From Larry LaRue’s column:
Now appearing in a starting lineup near you, Willie Bloomquist.
He’s done everything anyone has ever asked, playing seven positions over the past four years, and three managers have loved having him on their bench. What the 28-year-old Bloomquist brings to the Mariners is more than a dial-a-glove reserve.
Hargrove says Bloomquist is the best base runner on the team, and Bob Melvin said he was a player who made things happen when he did play.
The rap on Bloomquist has always been that he’s impatient at the plate, better when used in short spurts than as a regular player. That theory has never fully been tested, and last year he started 64 games – no more than 29 at any position.
Second base is wide open this spring. For the first time in his career, Bloomquist goes to camp as the frontrunner to win a regular job.
I’m not going to get into the specific things that are wrong here — I’ve debunked all the Bloomquist myths at length here and in other spaces (Bloomquist is a good baserunner, when he gets on base, which is rarely), and the myth that he’s “never been tested” as a starter is clearly hokum.
What’s important, though, is that Blooquist starting is even open for speculation. I understand that the team doesn’t want to slag on their popular, newly-signed local boy by saying he’s much better suited as a 25th man on the roster – or even subbing in frequently – then starting anywhere on the field. That they aren’t hinting around to the local newshounds that Lopez is the favorite worries me.
Bloomquist’s weighted PECOTA forecast: .237/.280/.317
Lopez: .263/.298/.409
Bloomquist’s 90% forecast (he goes crazy! he is teh best case evah!!): .287/.336/.387
Lopez: .302/.339/.516
Yeahhhh… so the prediction for a Super Bloomquist is moderately better than the prediction for a normal Lopez growth year.
Also in this article: Carl Everett got runners in from third with less than two outs as often as anyone on the White Sox, says Ozzie Guillen (btw, not true). The new pitching coach needs to make Meche and Pineiro believe they’re the aces they were supposed to become. And other stuff.
Over at the Times, Finnigan also thinks the season rides on Meche and Pineiro are key. His piece contains this gem from Hargrove, on moving on from Bryan Price:
“No knock on Bryan [former pitching coach Bryan Price], but guys get tired of hearing the same message from a coach,” Hargrove said, “and the coach might get tired of the player not getting it. Sooner or later, the instruction is lost. So, changing to Chaves here might do the trick.
Hee hee hee. Also lots of “character” stuff and normal spring speculation content. Notable omission– in talking about the young players who’ll be contributing next year, Betancourt’s mentioned, but Lopez is entirely left out. Maybe I’m just jumpy, but… yeagh.
Larry Stone finishes off the day’s news with a random “best and worst of the off-season” column which includes this succinct little gem:
While the Seahawks were dazzling the city with a run to the Super Bowl, the Mariners seemingly did little to recapture their waning hold on Seattle. The team’s solution to its dire need for “left-handed sock” was signing declining Carl Everett and Matt Lawton. The M’s solution to their dire need for a starting pitching boost was paying $37.5 million over four years for Jarrod Washburn, who is 29-31 over the last three years. The brightest new hope is a complete unknown  catcher Kenji Johjima.
Bam.
New T-shirt available
Hey, for those of you who were waiting for the popular Ambivalent Maybe shirts to be available in the USSM Swag Emporium, it’s up. If you’ve forgotten what it looks like, check it out:
Pretty cool.
If you haven’t already ordered a sweet USSM garmet, go on and get down with your bad self.
Those of you who ordered cool shirts — first, thanks, and second, when you get them, we’d love to hear how they look. Drop us a line or comment.
Also, we’re looking into ways to do logos on navy colors and stuff. This may involve using an alternate vendor, which might make this pretty complicated soon.
And remember — the part of your purchase that doesn’t fund CafePress’s continuing inability to offer different-colored T-shirts goes to our efforts to find better hosting, censor debate, and fund a buyout of the team’s current owners. We’re only $500m away from our goal.
BA on M’s Top Ten Prospects
Baseball America finished up their Top 10 prospects series on the website with a look at the Mariners. The introductory column, which includes the list and some miscellaneous rankings, is free to all. The analysis of each player, which can also be found in their Prospect Handbook (which includes a Top 30 for each organization), is subscriber only. But you should subscribe. BA rocks.
Anyways, here’s the list for those too lazy to follow a hyperlink.
1. Jeff Clement, c
2. Adam Jones, of/ss
3. Kenji Johjima, c
4. Chris Snelling, of
5. Matt Tuiasosopo, ss
6. Asdrubal Cabrera, ss/2b
7. Shin-Soo Choo, of
8. Emiliano Fruto, rhp
9. Clint Nageotte, rhp
10. Rob Johnson, c
Nothing significantly different from the Future Forty besides the Emiliano Fruto ranking. I know his stuff took a step up this year, and he’ll be included in the presason FF update, but I wouldn’t put him in the top ten. Even in his “breakthrough” season, he wasn’t missing enough bats and his control was abysmal when they promoted him to Tacoma. He’s almost certainly older than listed (old rumors had him as 5+ years older), his stuff is consistent, he doesn’t have good command, and there are questions about his work ethic and maturity. There’s a chance he turns into something, but its a longshot.
But, other than that, Jim Callis basically nails the system. It’s a good read, and Callis is about as good as it gets when it comes to prospect analysis, so value what he has to say.
Position Roundtables: Starting Shortstop
Starting Shortstop: Yuniesky Betancourt
Dave
I think there’s pretty much a group consensus that Yuniesky Betancourt is a terrific defensive shortstop, yes? The kid makes some remarkable plays and has every tool you could possibly want in the field.
However, Wilson Valdez can play a pretty good shortstop as well, and we tossed him aside after two months of out-making last year. We love his defense, but the bottom line in major league baseball is still “can you hit?” There’s a clear line for minimal accepted offensive performance, no matter how good your defense is, that a player has to clear. Wilson Valdez was below that line. We’re counting on Betancourt being above that line. But how far above? How good a hitter can he be?
For the optimistic, look no further than his top PECOTA comparison – Barry Larkin. I mean, that’s a dream scenario right there. Larkin was one of the best shortstops of his generation and should probably end up in the Hall of Fame. And, for the first 600 at-bats of his major league career, he didn’t hit a whole lot.
For the pessimistic, look no further than the rest of his PECOTA comparisons – Tim Foli, Orlando Cabrera, Bucky Dent, and Juan Uribe are the next four.
The difference between Larkin and the guys who never developed into hitters? He commanded the strike zone, even from a young age. He didn’t walk a ton, but he always had more walks than strikeouts, and he wasn’t making easy outs on pitches well out of the strike zone. Right now, Betancourt doesn’t have that kind of plate discipline. He’s a hack, a free swinger who would rather chase a pitch outside and foul it off than stand there with the bat on his shoulder. And that puts massive limits on how good of a hitter he can be.
Betancourt doesn’t have the strength or the swing to be a home run hitter. At most, he’ll whack 10 a year, and that’s probably too high a number. His game is going to be completely based on getting on base and running around them. He’s got great raw speed that can allow him to turn almost any ball in the gap into a triple. That’s valuable. But his speed doesn’t help him when he’s walking back to the dugout after chasing another pitch in the dirt.
It’s odd to say, because he’s only 24 years old, but without a pretty significant change in his approach at the plate, Betancourt’s fairly close to his offensive ceiling. With his current hitting style, he’s a .300/.330/.420 guy when he’s going well. Make no mistake, that makes him a valuable player when combined with his defense, but it’s a far cry from Barry Larkin.
There are guys who have had a similar skillset as young players and improved drastically as their careers have gone on. Omar Vizquel is the obvious example, since we still can’t get over the fact that the M’s traded him for Felix Fermin. But those guys are not the norm. If you look at Betancourt’s PECOTA projection, it essentially paints a picture of a guy who is already fairly close to his offensive ceiling. Guys with his skillset have a much lower career improvement arc than someone like Jose Lopez. Just because he’s young doesn’t mean he’s going to get significantly better.
Here’s hoping he takes the Barry Larkin career path. But I’m not going to hold my breath.
Jeff
I’ll take the Bucky Dent career path if it means he hits a monumental game-winning homer to beat our arch-rivals in a one-game playoff.
Or, to use a bit of debate jargon that Derek will appreciate, how about a permutation? Betancourt can hit like Larkin and have postseason heroics, too.
In all seriousness, though, isn’t it a bit more slippery to quantify Betancourt’s performance than it would be to assess the record of a player whose formative years were spent in the American minor leagues, or even Japan? Because the bulk of his experience took place in Cuba, we just don’t have the type of extensive statistical record we’d like to project Betancourt’s future value with full confidence.
Small sample size is more of an issue for him, it seems to me. Particularly in the case of fielding numbers, it’s important to look at as much data as you can.
To tease this idea out a bit, consider Pokey Reese. Though his signing didn’t work out, we were all for it because of his spectacular defensive play — something scouts and advanced defensive metrics agreed upon. Dave has made the case repeatedly that Reese, when healthy, saves so many runs with his glove that teams can afford to carry his bat. Which is, to be charitable,
Betancourt turned 23 in January of 2005, then spent part of the ensuing season in the minors and part in the majors. Reese turned 24 in June of 1997, and split time between AAA Indianapolis and Cincinnati.
Reese, that year in the minors, registered a.326 OBP and a .431 SLG, awfully close to Betancourt’s .311/.424 line in San Antonio and Tacoma. In the majors, Betancourt (.296,.370) was much better in his 211 at-bats than Reese was (.284.287) in his 397.
We can be fairly certain Betancourt is going to swing a bigger stick than Pokey. This can be said even though the M’s shortstop has a paltry amount of plate appearances in the states. Simply put, we know Reese is a banjo hitter because he’s demonstrated that over several years.
In conjunction with that, though, Reese has also demonstrated his superlative fielding over that same period. Scouts and stats alike say that he’s been a special player, plus — and this is key — they’re able to quantify just how special. That’s a result of having a wealth of information at they’re disposal.
When you look at Betancourt, you see a fantastic defensive player. Scouts adore him, and that’s great information to have.
But is he the kind of over-the-top grounder vacuum that means he can hit like an arthritic Scrabble player and still net you tons of runs each year? Very possibly, and I would tend to say yes — but I can’t tell you that for certain, and I don’t know if anyone else can, either. While he’s valuable, the question of just how valuable he’s going to be applies whether he’s at the plate or turning the double play.
Of course, if he hits, the whole “he’s great, but how great is he?” question is moot. And regardless of the answer, we’ll take the Yuniesky we’ve got. He’s a solid addition even if he doesn’t turn into Barry Larkin.
Derek
It is worth noting that projections of Betancourt, like PECOTA, require data that isn’t there. Given that the system really only had two years
of data (some crazy 2003 stats and then this year) I’m not surprised. Cuban stats are suspect, and I’m not sure how much I would trust them if
they were available.
So I agree, this is a case where we should lean a lot more towards the scouting side. This time next year we’ll have a whole new season of
Betancourt stats we can use to start forming more solid opinions, but for now, I agree that to be successful (without becoming another hitter)
Betancourt needs to keep making good contact, and his speed will get him hits from singles and doubles from gap singles.
I look forward to seeing Betancourt play next year. Hit or no hit, he’s an interesting and exciting player to watch, and we’ve had so much
boredom and uselessness these last few years.
Dave
Betancourt’s skill set lines up perfectly with his numbers, though. I know its only one year of data, but he was the same player at all three levels, and the conclusion drawn from the numbers and from watching him play are basically the same;
Gap hitter, line drive swing, terrific speed, awful plate discipline, lacks upper body strength to drive the ball. Yes, we only have one year of data, but his skillset doesn’t contradict anything we saw last year. He’s simply not going to hit 30 home runs in a season. He doesn’t have that kind of frame or swing. He’s a slash-and-dash hitter who will rely on his wheels, not his swings, to get himself around the bases.
Player types develop differently. Betancourt’s pretty far developed for his skillset. There’s not a lot of additional growth that he can make without totally reinventing his offensive approach. I like YuBet, too-heck, I argued that I wouldn’t trade him straight up for Miguel Tejada-but I don’t think he’s going to get a lot better than he already is.
Derek
That’s absolutely true, and I wouldn’t argue that Betancourt’s stats don’t match his skills. What I’d say is that when we look at something like a list of comps pulled by PECOTA, those comps don’t have the same value as a player we’ve seen for the full set of years.
For instance, do players like Betancourt develop some power? As they age, generally players become more patient and less contact-y… if Betancourt can’t get a little better in pitch selection, will that be the crucial factor in determining whether he can hit or not, and if so, how often does it break one way or the other?
From what we know, it’s unlikely that he’ll develop a significantly batting eye. Whether that can be exploited by major league pitchers and render him entirelly impotent is the interesting question.
Does that make sense?
Jason
If Betancourt develops into anything even close to Larkin, we should all jump for joy, as Larkin is one of the better shortstops ever to play the game. In any event, I’m not all that optimistic.
As for your pessimistic comps, call me crazy, but I’d take Juan Uribe. Terrific defender and some pop in his bat… 16 homers last year and 23 the year before that. This isn’t Rey Ordonez or Pokey Reese we’re talking about here. Even Orlando Cabrera, while now vastly overpaid, had a nice peak (2001, 2003-04) for a shortstop. Toss in Betancourt’s glove and that’s a very good player. Of course, both players have shown more power than you suggest Betancourt ever will. In the end, I don’t see Larkin or Uribe as very good comps, though Cabrera (career high HR: 17) is probably the best of the bunch.
I’m surprised we don’t hear more Omar Vizquel comparisons… they’re about the same size, play good defense, and don’t hit a lick. Omar hit .220/.273/.261 (no, not a typo) as a rookie, showing even less power than Betancourt has, before finally developing into an acceptable hitter later in his career.
Dave
I think thats why we don’t hear the Omar comparison all that often. At the same age, Betancourt is significantly better. Omar could barely get the ball out of the infild. Betancourt has legit gap power. He can smoke a fastball into the alley. He just won’t get any real lift on it, and that should keep his HR total down.
My favorite comparisons are Cristian Guzman, Pokey Reese, and Cesar Izturis. That’s what I think Betancourt can be. A terrific glove who, in his prime, hits .300, gets a bunch of triples, steals bases, is one of the better shortstops in baseball.
But, yea, the odds of him becoming Larkin are very, very long.
More random off-season articles
This is how low the standard for news is.
MLB.com on the “outfield corps” in their series of articles on different positions. It’s going to be one of the club’s strengths, they say. Also, Michael Morse is working on playing the outfield.
No other good local Mariner news. I guess we’re waiting on pitchers and catchers to report, and then we can go crazy for news on Johjima and Felix.
ESPN has a couple of articles on breakout pitchers/hitters and pre-season prediction-type stuff. They’re ridiculously fluffy and bereft of value, so no links.
King Felix, unique
I’ve been kicking around what to say about this, but… the new PECOTA cards are out, and if you look at Felix Hernandez… well, let me take a step back.
To over-simplify, PECOTA takes a player and uses a bunch of criteria to find similar players in baseball history to compare them to, and then looks at what those guys did the next year. So in doing this, it comes up with a score on how well it did finding similar players.
From the glossary:
Similarity index is a gauge of the player’s historical uniqueness; a player with a score of 50 or higher has a very common typology, while a player with a score of 20 or lower is historically unusual. For players with a very low similarity index, PECOTA expands its tolerance for dissimilar comparables until a meaningful sample size is established (see Comparable Players).
Historical anamoly Ichiro (who the system predicts will be out of baseball in 2010) gets a 19.
Felix gets a 1. 1.