Comments on: Position Roundtables: Right Field

By: Brian Rust

Brian Rust — Tue, 07 Mar 2006 22:36:57 +0000

Correction: Ichiro is 16 months younger than IbaÃ±ez.

One other thing to keep in mind, the M’s hit .256/.315/.369 in the 2-hole last year. A decent hitter in that slot will shave 20 points off Ichiro’s OBP by taking away most of his 23 IBBs.

By: The Ancient Mariner

The Ancient Mariner — Sun, 05 Mar 2006 15:35:46 +0000

I’m not at all conviced that we’ll see a sharp decline out of Ichiro. He’s smart enough and works hard enough — and has good enough vision — that I think he’ll do just fine reinventing himself as a hitter when the time comes. To be sure, I can’t think of another player of whom I’d say that, but I firmly believe it’s true of Ichiro.

By: BelaXadux

BelaXadux — Sun, 05 Mar 2006 03:59:37 +0000

And Brian, re: Ichiro’s potential decline trajectory, yes a) Ichii depends inordinately on the infield single, b) the crucial asset in his hitting approach is speed which declines quickly from the early 30s on, and c) Ichiro does not presently exhibit the ‘old player’ skill set which would allow him to retain value. This is much if not most of why his comparables show rapid decline in their early 30s, and accordingly why the comp-models this year are flashing yellow. Now, Ichiro is nearly or clearly the best-conditioned athlete in the game. His games per year in Nippon were sharply lower than for the US season, too. He may be able to hold his speed a few years longer than most. And Ichi hits the way he does by design; his tinkering last year clearly shows that he could shift to a different hitting pattern if he wanted to. Thus far, he hasn’t wanted to. And when and if he does, his value as a player is likely to be sharply lower than it is now, so that being a proud man he many not choose to reshape his offense at a different, lower level when it becomes a necessity not a choice. I think Ichiro will stave off decline longer than his comps, and that he’s not going to hit that wall this year, or probably next. When it does come, though, it will be fairly sharp, and he may retire in the 36-37 range rather than limp on as a shadow of himself. He came up young, too, so he’s already had a full career.

By: F-Rod

F-Rod — Sun, 05 Mar 2006 02:24:01 +0000

Are these career or season numbers?

By: Steve Nelson

Steve Nelson — Sat, 04 Mar 2006 23:21:10 +0000

#42: I think you have valid points. I was trying to stay on the low side on my estimates; even so I think it’s clear the Ichiro’s contract is one of the best bargains in the game in terms of revenue (and profit) generated per salary dollar. Ichiro would be reasonably compensated even if he weren’t bringing in the extra Japanese revenues. ad in the Japanaese revenues and it turns into a great bargain for the team.

I do recall reading from a previous article that the concessions and team store contributions by Ichiro were pretty close. As you point out, both of my numbers may be low.

By: DamienRoc

DamienRoc — Sat, 04 Mar 2006 21:17:58 +0000

#33 – I think you’re underestimating the store revenue. I can’t logically see someone visiting from Japan specifically to see Ichiro… and then buying a single souvenir from the team store. You spend ~$60 or so per game and concessions, $100 or so per night for the hotel, and $600 or so to fly here, and you’re going to spend $20 on a souvenir? Not likely. I expect a good amount will plop down hundreds if not thousands on merchandise during a trip.

Of course, you also might be underestimating the amount of concessions. I’ve known some Japanese people who can drink a LOT of beer. (And at $7 a cup or so, you have to spend a good amount to get a lot at Safeco.)

By: Brian Rust

Brian Rust — Sat, 04 Mar 2006 19:40:32 +0000

Looking more closely at Ichiro’s first pitch results . . .

Year: PA, in play/%(BA), strike/%, ball/%
2005: 731, 65/.089 (.200), 342/.468, 324/.443
2004: 757, 114/.151 (.456), 336/.406, 336/.444
2003: 721, 102/.141 (.382), 304/.422, 315/.437

Look how closely the â€œball 1â€ percentage tracks over the three years. Whatever changes he may have been asked to make in 2005, he did not let any higher percentage of balls pass by out of the strike zone. Even if he was being less aggressive, it appears he was no more selective. If, as Bela suggests (and I agree), smart pitchers are throwing him more crap early, he was not letting any more go by.

A key figure missing here is called vs. swinging first strikes. Does anyone know where to find this information summarized? I donâ€™t really have time to go through the pitch-by-pitch to collate 2,200 at-bats.

Is his .200 BA on the first pitch merely a random effect of small sample size? The binomial probability of 13 or fewer successes in 65 trials with a probability of .303 = .043. A scientist using a 95% confidence interval would consider that statistically significant.

Another informative split on Ichiro is force-out situations, defined as a runner on first or first and second, but not on third. This illustrates, IMO, the extent to which he relies on the infield single. We discussed this early in â€™05, but the larger sample size of the entire season bears out a statistically significant situational dropoff. In the following comparison, binomP(BA) is the probability that a random binomial sample of AB trials with a probability of BA yields H successes.

Year: AB, H, BA, binomP(season BA)/binomP(career BA)
2005: 140, 31, .221, .019/.003
2004: 147, 48, .326, .145/.480

It is important to note that this analysis takes sample size into account. For instance, where a 30-for-140 split in a .300 BA yields P=.015, 15-for-70 yields P=.073 and 6-for-28 yields P=.220. The first is considered statistically significant while the others are not.

So what are the skills that age well? Controlling the strike zone, hitting for power, making adjustments to compensate for ability. The evidence suggests Ichiro has some difficulty in these areas. Of course, he is Ichiro!, so he certainly could surprise me. But just because heâ€™s one of a kind doesnâ€™t automatically mean that heâ€™s immune to the effects of age. And heâ€™s only 8 months younger than IbaÃ±ez.

By: Mat

Mat — Sat, 04 Mar 2006 19:27:36 +0000

“1-2 and 0-2 make sense – heâ€™s behind in the count, and he got there quickly. 2-0, though. That might demonstrate Ichiroâ€™s expectation that any 2-0 pitch will be a strike, so he swings at everything.”

To be sure about that, it would be instructive to see how often he went from 2-0 to 3-0 and how often he went from 2-0 to 2-1. It could be that pitchers get a bit defensive in that situation, don’t give him anything to swing at, and he goes to 3-0 a lot. The table the way it’s constructed is interesting, but I think it would be equally interesting to see a table that described the eventual outcome of an at-bat after Ichiro got to a certain count.

By: Evan

Evan — Sat, 04 Mar 2006 18:26:16 +0000

Ichiro’s worst numbers come at 1-2, 0-2, and then 2-0.

1-2 and 0-2 make sense – he’s behind in the count, and he got there quickly. 2-0, though. That might demonstrate Ichiro’s expectation that any 2-0 pitch will be a strike, so he swings at everything.

By: BelaXadux

BelaXadux — Sat, 04 Mar 2006 04:44:09 +0000

And Derek, I love the pitch chart. Taking previous years into account per comments in thread, then, it’s clear that Ichiro deliberately swings at one or the other of the first two pitches unless they’re way out of reach, and consistently has good success with both contact and result. That also lines up well with the observation over time that pitchers who have the most success against him keep the ball away and make him expand the strikezone to reach low-quality pitches. The best wisdom against him would be: don’t challenge him early. This may also figure into his best overall results being his first two years in the league when pitchers seemed more willing to ‘try to bury the little guy;’ he won much of the time, and smart teams have adapted their tactics.