Dave’s Crazy ‘06 Predictions
Yea, I know, the season has already started, but I was a wee bit busy this weekend, so take em when you can get em.
Dave’s Wild Predictions For 2006
Mariner Specific Predictions
Wins: 85
Runs Scored/Allowed: 770-749
Team MVP: Felix Hernandez
Most Improved: Adrian Beltre
Comeback Player: Rafael Soriano
BA leader: Ichiro, who else, .339
HR leader: Beltre, 34
OPS leader: Sexson, .880
Innings Pitched Leader: Felix, 198
ERA Leader: King Felix, 2.47
K leader: El Cartuela, 213
Random Predictions
Number of times I yell at JJ Putz for throwing nothing but four seam fastballs: 58
Reliever fans have most confidence in by April 15th: Soriano
Times Mike Hargrove saves Guardado for a save situation at home in extra innings, thus driving me completely insane: 6
Derek’s most commonly uttered phrase during game threads: AAAARRRRGH
Failed attempts to read a Joe Sheehan column without hitting myself with a bat: 4
Number of no-hitters Felix throws this season: 1
Odds I fly to some AL city just to watch Felix in person this year: 2-1
Date of Mike Hargrove’s firing: May 19th, 2006
Players traded by July 31st deadline: Shin-Soo Choo, Rene Rivera, Julio Mateo
M’s selection with #5 pick in June Draft: Brandon Morrow
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Date Carl Everett is DFA’D June 17th, plenty of time to look at Doyle and way before the trade deadline….
How about a prediction of number of times Petagine goes yard?
Or maybe, more applicably, number of times I slam my head in the sliding glass door after Petagine is sent down to Tacoma after Lawton comes back and they decide to keep Borchard? Answer – 37
All star game reps: Johjima, Ichiro.
(Felix gets selected but the team succeeds in him not going there to limit his innings pitched)
Gold gloves: Ichiro, Betancourt.
PS: Please add the new catcher’s name to the spelling helper.
Place King Felix places in Cy Young Award voting: 4th
Highest finishing Mariner in MVP voting: Ichiro
His place: 11th
Times Dave plugs Andrew Miller as someone the M’s should draft if available: 14
And Dave, you’re on the high end of my winning range (I have 75-85), but it’s reasonable.
There’s no way Betancourt wins a gold glove. The voting is too biased on name recognition and offense.
The voting is too biased on name recognition and offense.
That means Jeter wins it then, right?
Times Mike Hargrove saves Guardado for a save situation at home in extra innings, thus driving me completely insane: 6
You think Hargrove’s going to last that long?
(Well, okay, there are six games in the opening homestand, so it’s technically possible….)
Re. the other stuff: I’ll say 77-85, HR leader Sexson 36, Felix ERA 3.39, Felix least hits allowed in start 2. (Definitely agree on the Soriano/confidence thing, though. Also, after Sunday’s discussion, am optimistic about Andrew Miller at pick #5, unless the Rockies think they’ve got the checkbook to pull it off.)
Times Mike Hargrove saves Guardado for a save situation at home in extra innings, thus driving me completely insane: 6
I’ll take the over.
I’ll take the over on Sexson beating 34 HRs.
I’ll also a glimmer of hope and predict that after Lawton comes back, the Ms actually demote……………………… a pitcher.
Odds that Pinella replaces Grover?
Question is which pitcher gets the demotion?
Woods is unlikely, leaving just Sherril as your only Lefty in the pen (other than the closer).
My vote would be for Harris, giving him a couple starts in AAA to prepare for the inevitable midseason demotion/injury of Meche.
Not always. And in fact there’s precedent right here in Seattle: Omar Vizquel first won the gold glove while still a Mariner, in 1993. He was still a bad hitter back then, with a .319 onbase and a .298 slugging. And the Mariners were only a .500 team. The big difference is that Vizquel had been in the league for five years already. But he was still hardly widely known to the baseball public. I think that especially at shortstop, a flashy fielder like Betancourt can jump up and grab a Gold Glove, especially when the incumbent is probably a realtively soft champion; I doubt Jeter is considered an overwhelming Gold Glove winner by many of the people voting for him.
And speaking of Vizquel, he goes in to this season with exactly 3000 career total bases.
Who could we get to replace Grover?
Wow, that’s practically tomorrow. We would have to lose 80% of our games between now and May 18th for the Front Office to ax Grover; or Ichiro has to say that it is either him or Grover.
Even though the game ended poorly yesterday I wasn’t discouraged. Last year our 7-9 hitters were a black hole. This year we’ll be markedly improved: Reid/Lopez, Johjima, and Betancourt are all solid. I think we’ll be right at .500 (78 ~ 80 wins), but we’ll play some competitive, competent baseball.
My prediction is that Eddie better not get too comfortable in Seattle. He’ll be pitching somewhere else in August, and we’ll have some shiny new prospects.
WRT gold gloves, these days it may matter as much how many “web gems” and other sports center highlights you get…
You really think they’re going to give Felix that many innings? I don’t doubt he ends up being the leader because Pinero and Meche will likely have a rehab assignment or worse in the minors at some point, and if they let Moyer pitch on the road he won’t get many innings before the bullpen comes in (and if they’re smart enough to not give him the ball on the road he gets still fewer), and I guess those innings have to come from somewhere but…. sheesh.
Infinitely long. (Oh yeah, and he’ll bring Griffey with him, along with a new knee for Edgar). Pinella can do broadcasting on the east coast if he wants, he doesn’t appear to want to have anything to do with the M’s ownership, and based on the comments from Bavasi at the feed it sounds like Rohn is already quietly taking swings in the on-deck circle.
Dave, did you not include Guardado in your Traded list by oversight or by intention?
Date of Mike Hargrove’s firing: May 19th, 2006
Date of Felix’s first pitch count over 120: May 18, 2006 (2-1 loss at Oakland)
#15 Bobby Valentine. If Howard thought Sweet Lou was a pill. Booby V is just what we need.
Bobby V. Sheesh!
BOOBY V
…qualifies as slander (appologies for my posting mistake)
An 85 win team isn’t likely to trade their closer for a passel o’ B-level prospects, unless it’s a case of being really horrible before the deadline and then coming back from the dead the last two months.
The players Dave postulates as being traded would be the kinds you’d trade for the Established Veteran Deadline Pickup…
The point is, no one is going to win a division with this team, the pitching staff will be in shambles by May15th. We have had enough of the dugout statues who consult lord knows what book to make changes or lack thereof. At least we can be entertained! Enter Bobby V.
May 19th? I was hoping it’d be sooner than that. Like sometimes after he mismanage another game tonight, maybe.
Feh. Who cares about dugout statutes….Just be an effective manager, both in handling players and in managing game situations.
Not sure that Hargrove’s been anywhere close to even Melvin, let alone Pinella….
Sorry to get off track, always been a Valentine fan, lot’s of fire, maybe not always well directed. My prediction is two starters injured by May 15th, and at least one totally ineffective. Nothing in Tacoma to fill the gaps. Offense is good enough to win behind decent pitching, doesn’t have to be great. Finally, Soriano is tossed in as a starter by June, hope he is well enough to handle the work load.
I know Pinella replacing Grover (if Dave’s prediction holds true) would be a longshot, but I do feel that Pinella’s managerial skills would be well-suited to this particular team. He would find at-bats for Petagine and bench Everett much sooner than Grover.
But I must say that I would rather have Grover than Melvin. Melvin is one of the few managers would could simulataneously overwork his bullpen and starting pitchers.
Dave (or any USS Mariner author), what’s your perception about how the organization views Choo at this point? Has he completely fallen out of favor? If so, is that a justified view?
Regarding the May 19 prediction, the schedule until then looks brutal with only two series against teams that would be long shots to contend (Detroit, Tampa) until then. So, if at that date, the Ms hover around .400, I’d say that’s still on route to a .500 finish.
Pinella’s not coming back. Neither is Griffey.
They already have Grover’s replacement with the big club. Dan Rohn.
#17– FWIW, it wasn’t Bavasi, it was Dave who commented on Dan Rohn. I know folks are always confusing the two of them, but….
Dave: For those of us who are casual fans, what can you tell us about Morrow and why you think they’ll pick him?
I think Johjima will do well. I like his approach at the plate. That opposite field homerun was nice. So was his ability to work the count and draw a hit-by-pitch off of Colon later.
And I hope Petaigne gets more playing time. Using him primarily as a pinch hitter would be a waste.
Johjima has a very Japanese swing. The acceleration of his bat through the hitting zone is almost zero. It reaches top speed early, stays there long enough to hit the ball to all fields, and then leaves the hitting zone.
I like it.
Grover’s not going anywhere. The kind of “mistakes” he makes, which drive USSM crazy, are the kind of book moves that clubs LOVE in their manager. If he started using his closer non-traditionally he’d be gone before you know it.
How are we going to score 770 runs with .880 leading the team in OPS? How is jeopardizing Felix’s career for the sake of a few extra innings on an 85-win team (or 75-win, more like) going to be a good thing?
This still looks like the magic confluence of everything going right at once outcome. I think it’s just as likely that Ichiro hits .299/.340/.407 and leads the league in ESPN Stiff Points, Felix goes down hurt in June, Beltre regresses even further, Lopez fails, Moyer retires on July 4, Sexson stops at 31 HR, and Willie Bloomquist gets 600 AB. Not that I expect those things to all happen either, but there’s just no way that EVERYTHING goes right.
74 wins, I say. But it’ll be an entertaining year. I’m much more excited about this crowd than last year’s, for some reason.
Out of curiosity, what about Sheehan’s columns makes you violently angry? I find him–especially lately–highly repetitive and mediocre, but I don’t think he’s as bad as some of the regular targets of firejoemorgan.com, for example. He seems more forgettable than maddening. I’m not trying to incite anything here; just looking for an honest critique.
Sheehan constantly rips on Ichiro, for one thing. Lately his swipes have been more subtle and backhanded, which in a way is even more maddening.
Yeah, but you can see Sheehans point, 200 hits per year, League MVP, 20-30 SB’s a year, All Time Hits leader, an arm no one will run on, 10-15 hr’s a year, plays everyday, rarely complains but when he does he bulls eyes it, guys a stiff. Should do more for his team…
Ichiro’s inscrutable zen master style rubs a lot of people the wrong way. So what?
Did I mention drug free, family man, represents his Country and Team (s) well?
In Steve’s world, the skies are always gray and the glass is always half empty. Last year’s team, without Felix for most of the year, was a 75 win team that got some bad breaks and won 69. There’s no way they’re worse than they were last year. No way.
Sheehan drives me nuts because he’s supposed to be something like the voice of “our cause”. If you quote OBP or VORP, Sheehan is instantly on your side. At least with Joe Morgan, I can claim some distance from his opinions, but Sheehan says all kinds of stupid things and discredits an entire group of people that I’m often associated with.
Brandan Morrow – pitches for Cal, 6′3 RHP, has mid 90s velocity on his four seam fastball, tosses a mean split finger for his outpitch, lit up the Cape Cod League last summer.
He was abysmal his first two years at Cal (career ERA entering the year at 7.57) due to serious control problems, but he’s turned a corner this year. 57 innings, 23 walks, 63 strikeouts, 1.74 ERA. Not as polished as some other college products, but draws comparisons to Justin Verlander.
Ichiro will get his opportunity to step up this year if the 7-8-9 hitters keep getting on base.
Who does Dave predict will arrive in Seattle for Choo, Rivera, and Mateo? I assume that the M’s will not trade those types of players for prospects. A starting pitcher of some sort I presume?
Dave says “In Steve’s world, the skies are always gray and the glass is always half empty.”
Yup. It’s called the Pacific Northwest!
I can think of all sorts of ways they could be worse than last year….
As for Sheehan, I’m in the “boring” camp. I might actually agree with him more often than I do with Dave, for instance, but I’d rather read Dave because he’s actually saying something. That’s actually the dirty little secret of BP — terrible writing. Or maybe not; the editing’s so bad it’s sometimes difficult to tell what the writing’s actually about. I look at their website every day, and I’ve read every edition of the book cover to cover, but I still can’t believe the bushels of typos in it. Makes you wonder about the numbers, which are much harder to proofread.
83 wins. Ichiro as team MVP per voting/perception (though Felix and Beltre will have more value). Moyer leading in innings pitched, Felix only at 180.
Hargrove will last until the all-star break, but not past that. Odds of Pinella replacing him: ZERO.
BTW, when Putz came in I knew you’d be posting about saving the closer. I thought it was a reasonable move to use Putz against the guys coming up and save Guadardo for the heart of the order in the 10th if it got that far. If Putz gets out Figgins or Cabrera, which he should have done, this is a non issue.
Moyer’s going to top out at about 160 this year. I pick Washburn for IP leader.
Who does Dave predict will arrive in Seattle for Choo, Rivera, and Mateo
An Andy Benes style rent-a-pitcher. John Thomsen, if he proves healthy, perhaps? Someone like that.
And yes, the organization has soured a bit on Choo, and rightfully so. He’s probably a fourth outfielder in the majors.
I wonder why Putz can’t throw a two seamer.
He probably can, but there’s a difference between being able to throw one and having confidence enough to throw it with the winning run in scoring position. Putz’s repertoire is basically a four seam fastball and a mediocre splitter. When he’s in a jam, that’s what he’s going to.
The lack of a punchout pitch has always been his achilles heel, and that hasn’t changed.
Number of web gems made by Betancourt this year: 54
Betancourt could win the gold glove based on Baseball Tonight web gems alone.
Please, oh please -
May 19th is my birthday. I couldn’t think of a better present than saying goodbye to “grover.”
John Thompsen or Dave, do you think that they will trade to bolster the Majors club or look for prospects? It seems to me that unless you are going to get an ace, any trade gets you only a few more wins if it works. So unless you are really contending, would it not make more sense to work on the minors (and I am not talking about a fire sale at the majors level but moves made with AAA or AA type guys).
It’s John Thomson, not Thomsen. It wouldn’t do for anyone to think we were related.
Dave, I understand, but he seriously can’t think he can put six 95 MPH straight fastballs by MLB calibur hitters, can he? It’s like watching a pitching machine up there, the guy throws every pitch the exact same speed every time.
Well, I didn’t get either name right! Sorry!!
I share your concern about Putz. What the heck is this guy still doing here? Maybe it’s just me, but I seem to remember from last season Putz being a choke artist. I got that lousy feeling in the pit of my stomach last night when he came in from the pen. Why do we keep putting this guy on the mound?
because he threw 60IP with a 3.6 ERA.
Putz may well get a midseason contract extension, given his performance. Two years, $2.6 million, I’m guessing. I’m not even sure if I’m joking.
Isn’t there a way to find out how many runs he allowed that were not charged to him, though? Case in point, last night.
In Steve’s world, the skies are always gray and the glass is always half empty. Last year’s team, without Felix for most of the year, was a 75 win team that got some bad breaks and won 69. There’s no way they’re worse than they were last year. No way.
An 81 win team that gets those same bad breaks can be a 75 win team, though. Just because you rolled snake eyes at the crap table 3 consecutive times doesn’t mean you won’t roll them again on the next one.
Dave, you mentioned that if Felix is lights-out, maybe it’s a repeat of 1997. My take is that RJ being superhuman in 1995 and 1997, and the offense being superhuman in 1996, only made the M’s an 85-90 win team (they averaged about 88 wins, if you project 1995 to a 162 game season), and that was with contributions from THREE mortal lock HOF players (Griffey, RJ, A-Rod), one less than mortal lock one at his peak performance (Edgar), and several All Star caliber players chipping in (Buhner, Moyer, Tino). That’s an awful lot of talent base- and the only way three 2006 Mariners are going to the Hall of Fame is if Felix and Ichiro buy a ticket for someone.
Felix ain’t pitching 230 innings, either.
I think they are a year or two away. I think we need some candidates to step forward from the farm system OTHER than Felix to start, so instead of spending 15 million on 3 starters who won’t cut it as a group, we can spend 330K on one of those starters and be more aggressive in chasing the Esteban Loaizas of the world, for one thing.
And it would help if we didn’t sign washed-up DHs for 3.4 million, either.
#61
He allowed 14 of 44 inherited runners to score last year. Of course, I have no idea what an average or a good rate would be, but that sounds decent to me.
I have to admit that doesn’t sound too bad; I’m willing to admit it may be just a bad perception on my part. But then, and I may be opening myself up to criticism here, I’m more of a gut-check guy than a numbers guy. Thanks for the quick response on those RA/RI numbers.
JJ Putz is disturbingly like a right-handed Matt Thornton. Throws a hard but straight 4-seam fastball. Has sporadic command, and an inconsistent secondary pitch.
Putz’s numbers from 05 are all good, which leads to the response seen in #64 “well, I guess it was just those few bad HR that stand out.”, well, it’s true and measureable. Despite his good runs allowed numbers, Putz’s WX (win expectancy) was -0.4. IOW, he was good over the aggregate, but he picked terrible times to give up what runs he did. It’s about the opposite of what Sherill did.
there’s a big difference between Matt Thornton’s (lack of) command and Putz’s.
BP’s career translated ratios list BB/9:
Putz: 3.5
Thornton: 7.0
Putz isn’t horrible, just infinitely replaceable.
infinitely replaceable…how do you measure that?
By putting Aaron Looper, Scott Atchison or Jeff Heaverlo in his uniform and seeing no discernible change in results.
If Putz was so replaceable, wouldn’t we have, you know, replaced him?
If Putz was so replaceable, wouldn’t we have, you know, replaced him?
No. If all these parts are truly interchangeable, then it doesn’t hurt to have a little depth.
You guys drastically overestimate the effect of Hargrove’s choice to send in Putz. If Eddie would have gotten hurt during the summer I’d say that there is at least a 50% chance that Putz would have been our “closer”. Putz looks great sometimes and gets hit other times. Its opening day and he had some control problems with his first batter. It happens. I don’t like it, but it happens. Its not like the Angels were tearing Putz apart. He walked a guy and then got a hit up the middle. It happens. Its part of the game. Next time Putz goes out there I’m sure he’ll pitch fine. If he does this every time he goes out there we have a problem. Do you really think Eddie would have done so much better? I know Putz’s 97 mph 4 seamer is as straight as a ruler but Eddie’s 87 mph fastball…well does it really matter how much an 87 mph fastball is moving side to side its going 87 mph. Putz is a decent reliever. Most teams would be happy to take him and he is much better than the reliever trash that didn’t make our team. The real reason we lost that game was the HR that Moyer gave up which should have never happened. I’m pretty sure that Vlad should be intentially walked every time he comes to the plate. Straight up, Vlad scares the crap out of me when we face him. Also, we should have gotten some runs with the bases loaded. 9 out of 10 times I bet we get at least one or two runs that inning. Oh well, this is the reason we play 162 games.
The problem wasn’t that he got torched, the problem was that he blew two straight 0-2 counts.
Thank you for that dose of common sense, Edgar for Pres.
The question of whether to put in the closer in the top of the 9th in a tie game is an interesting abstract one that might mean a lot if we had a “lights out” closer. We don’t.
#74’s right. Putz doesn’t have a true out pitch. That makes him unsuited to the responsibilities he’s been given.
So you guys want us to put in Eddie. I’d say Eddie has just as good of a chance of allowing a run as Putz does. There were points near the end of last year where I thought Putz might be a better closer than Eddie but thats beside the point. Lets say he goes one inning without allowing a run and our offense doesn’t score either. Do you send Eddie back out there? What if you go another inning without anybody scoring, then what? If you guys think Putz is garbage/replacable then you have the option of Woods/Harris/Mateo which isn’t pretty. I was surprised he used Soriano so early. That is what we should be talking about I think. I think you’ve gotta use Putz in that situation and have Soriano do the work later in the game during crunch time. Then bring in Eddie after Soriano. I think the combo of Putz/Soriano/Guardado with Sherril on standby is a potent staff that is one of the best in baseball.
Oh yeah, Putz doesn’t have an out pitch, big deal. He throws fast and gets people out. He usually is pretty good about throwing strikes too. Most of the time those two 0-2 counts lead to outs even if you know he is throwing his fastball.
I just had a weird moment where I felt my left side of my brain twitch.
I don’t necessarily want Eddie in there but I think that basically any pitcher on a MLB staff, especailly one who is a ‘lights out’ guy or a ’setup/closer’ type guy, should be able to get an out after going 0-2. Fucking that up once is not the end of the world, but going 0-2 then walking a guy TWICE??? That’s bad.
Of course it’s just one game, but it’s all I’ve got so far!
“I think I just threw up a little bit in my mouth.”
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that I think the rest of the season will provide lots of regression to the mean with respect to 0-2 counts, as well as for bases-loaded-nobody-scores situations. No need to panic just yet.
Soriano was brought in with two men on in a tie game and faced the 2-5 hitters in the Angels’ lineup. Putz was brought in with one man on to face a pinch-hitter for the 9 hole, in a situation where it was clear that if he reached the heart of the lineup at all, either it would be in extra innings or it would mean he had already failed anyway. The latter turned out to be the case.
I think I prefer Soriano in the spot he was used, given the scenario. I don’t have that much confidence in Putz generally, but if the circumstances require using him then I think the two were deployed appropriate to the leverage of the situation.
Ok guys we are being pissed that Putz got to a 0-2 count and then blew it. I could understand if he was 3-0 but not 0-2. You guys are pissed because he toyed with our emotions more than he pitched horrible. And agreed with #81. Actually I think we looked pretty good except early when our lineup was getting mowed down one after the other.
Times Dave plugs Andrew Miller as someone the M’s should draft if available: 14
He exceeded that already. Just counting Sunday. Seriously.
I could be safe and predict a range of 70-80 wins, but that’s too broad to be a legit prediction, IMHO. I’ll go with 75 wins.
The issue isn’t whether Eddie is a “lights out” closer, because Hargrove would do the same thing if he was. The issue is that Hargrove has identified a man as his closer, and is then doing something stupid with him. He would if it was Mariano Rivera, too.
The issue is that Hargrove can’t be trusted to think about the game he’s managing. He has presets, that’s all.
Somebody should tell Dave it’s “el cartelua”, not “el cartuela”. Don’t insult the King by getting his self-dubbed nickname wrong.
Google cartuela — how obscure is this word? (And no, it doesn’t matter if you search en español).
Ah, thanks Sane, I see. Still, USSM is well on its way to making that a word in its own right, at least on the web. Heh.
if hargrove keeps using guardado like that, he really is going to be out of the job
[...] Rosenthal lists Hargrove’s status is “simmering,” perhaps like a nice potato leek soup. This seems to mix the “hot seat” metaphor, since most heated recliners don’t have a simmer setting. Dave’s take on the manager’s fate, as you may recall, was more aggressive — he’s forecasting a Hargrove ouster by mid-May. [...]