Random Thoughts, Week One
Dave · April 10, 2006 at 7:59 am · Filed Under Mariners
[Watch as Dave usurpus the top spot from both JMB and DMZ. Hooray for eastern time.]
So, a week is in the books, and we stand at 3-4, built basically on a three game winning streak and the current three game losing streak. The team has looked both fantastic and terrible. What have I seen so far?
- The team scored 30 runs in seven games at Safeco Field against the toughest group of starting pitchers any team has faced so far this year. Colon, Harden, Lackey, and Zito are all borderline all-stars, Weaver and Loiaza are upper-tier mid rotation guys, and Blanton is a second year arm with some promise. Those pitchers are going to pose a challenge to any team. Scoring 30 runs in seven games against those arms is an accomplishment.
- Take away Felix’s velocity and command, and what do you have left? A guy with so much movement that teams still can’t get the ball out of the infield against him. That was as bad as Felix has looked since he got to the majors, stuff-wise, and he still dominated the A’s. This kid’s ridiculous.
- This team can’t win consistently without Adrian Beltre hitting like a major league third baseman. Right now, he’s the same guy he was last year. His pitch recognition is terrible, and he’s missing easily hittable balls. If ever there was a candidate for someone to watch hours and hours of video to learn how to read a ball coming out of the pitcher’s hand, it’s Beltre.
- Willie Bloomquist shouldn’t be an option in center field. That dive on the line drive on Saturday was one of the worst defensive plays you’ll ever see.
- Richie Sexson has one walk and nine strikeouts in 26 at-bats. And he’s the patient hitter in the line-up.
- For everyone concerned about the bullpen, don’t be. The M’s have options. Nageotte and Sean Green are showing off some nasty sinkers down in Tacoma. Green is a groundball machine, and even when he’s not missing bats, he’s tough.
- Three against Cleveland and three against Boston, all on the road? I’ll be thrilled if they can pull of a .500 road trip.
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Thanks for the post Dave. You mention that help is available for the pen down in Tacoma in the form of Green and Nageotte. Do you still see Nageotte as bullpen only with his new found groundballedness, or do you see him as possibly being Gill Meche’s replacement if Gill stinks it up for half a season.
Nageotte’s still a rotation candidate. However, if Mateo continues to look that awful in his next few appearances, he may get optioned out to get more work in since he missed most of ST. In that scenario, I think Nageotte’s probably the guy who gets the call to give the pen another RH multi-inning guy.
Great post, my non-asterisked namesake!
What is the prevailing view on why Beltre cannot hit, and what did he do differently in 2004. Is it a case of pitchers figuring out how to pitch to him, and him being unable to adjust. Is it nervousness? Or was 2004 a fluke.
How about the starting rotation’s performance in week one? Sure, neither LAA or the A’s have thunderous lineups, but the rotation pitched about as well as can be expected. If Piniero had been lifted for a lefty prior to facing Chavez, that would have been 3 ER in 6 and 2/3. Yes, Felix was not on his game and Meche through a lot of piches (and he to should have been lifted one batter before he was), but the M’s rotation was a pleasant surprise through seven games. Nothing great, but not a hinderance.
I’m afraid the M’s have yet another very expensive head case playing 3rd base for them. If Beltre doesn’t snap out of it, and soon, he is going to cost his manager and GM their jobs. This team has no shot at even a .500 season without Beltre hitting well.
Well, I thought when we started 3-1 that 7-7 would be wonderful after the first road trip’s completion. That is extremely unlikely now, but man, what a schedule for the first two weeks.
I guess my disappointment is largely around approach at the plate. The final at bat by Lopez yesterday–when the M’s had all the momentum in the world and looked like they might pull a miracle–with Jose hacking at the second outside pitch from Street and pulling it to short, pretty much sums up the (wrong-headed) aggressive approach at the plate that has led to far too many easy innings for opposing pitchers.
Let us not forget Bloomquist’s attempt to break Beltre’s ankle yesterday.
As mcfly mentioned, I thought that two fielders crashing together late in a 6-1 game in April was silly. However, I wasn’t sure who was at fault.
A minor thing, but when Petagine reached base, why didn’t Hargrove put Willie in to PR? At least when Roberto got to second with two out? Willie had to be going into the game at SS anyway, and Hargrove ended up inserting him in Petagine’s #9 slot. He’d have had a better chance to score from second on a single.
Lawton’s back for the Boston series… any thoughts as to who goes bye-bye? I’d love for it to be a bullpen extra, but my guess is that Petagine goes.
There will probably be a roster move announced before tomorrow. In the short term, it sounds like a pitcher may be optioned out. In the long term, Petagine and Borchard are probably fighting for one spot.
I am starting the Dobbs for Beltre at 3rd Base campaign, starting today.
dont have a problem with Lopez swinging at the 2nd pitch. It was a good pitch to hit and youre going against a good closer. Prevailing wisdom there is not to try and work the count because if you get to 2 strikes you’re screwed. Take the first fastball strike you see and put it in play.
As for Beltre, his physical swing mechanics look better to me than in 05. Less dipping, laying off the low and away better, more hip rotation, but he still seems like he has zero idea how to hit. Where the hell is Edgar when we need him?
Another point Ray Fosse made in the A’s feed (besides igniting the Jojima catches the ball wrong fire) is that the Mariners did very little to disrupt the rhythm of the A’s pitchers, who were obviously locked in, by stepping out, taking pitches, etc. Seemed right to me.
Carl Everett did catch a pitch, but was otherwise dismal at the plate. He was totally lost against Blanton, looking like he couldn’t wait to get back to the bench to work his clubhouse magic. I hope that Hargrove doesn’t waste half a season before letting others bat the DH slot. Macha sat Frank Thomas the first week of the season.
With the pitching staffs at the upper level relatively restocked, the Tacoma shuttle should be a viable alternative to the M’s carrying a 12th pitcher. Two-thirds of Tacoma’s staff are essentially interchangeable with Harris, Woods, and (at this point) Mateo. If the M’s bullpen gets overworked bailing out Meche, replace a reliever with someone from Tacoma for a few days. Non-prospects like Harris and Atchison are around for this very purpose (and likely would clear waivers again if removed from the 40-man roster). For the minor league pitchers on the 40-man roster, the option has already been burned, so the M’s might as well use it (although the M’s should be careful with the higher end talent with injury issues like Nageotte and Foppert).
Have you noticed that there is a really zoned or zombie look about Beltre after his at bats? At first I thought it was a good thing. Means he’s trying to work on being scared. Then I realized he hit just fine in the WBC. I think because on that team he didn’t have to be ‘the Man’. After further thought Beltre looks more like a deer in the headlights who is trying to pysche himself out of it. To much thinking and not enough reacting once it’s gametime.
Also, I secretly want Willie AAAgame to fail and make idiotic plays like the leap in centerfield so that both him and Hargrove will be booted together. Or new manager means less catering to the bull that surrounds ‘Boom Boom’.
That dive should keep Willie out of CF for a while. When even the M’s commentators criticize Willie, you know Willie really screwed up.
I have a fear that Hargrove likes Bloomquist and Everett too much, and for all the wrong reasons. Petagine ane Borchard may not be all-stars, but they deserve more playing time than what they are currently getting, especially since Everett has taken every DH AB in every game and Willie has received two starts. This trend will probably continue to infuriate me as well as other readers of USSM.
When was the last time Beltre had his eyes examined? Maybe he needs contacts.
I’m serious. It looks like he always has a squint on his face.
we’ve ben admiring the odd little hippity-hop he’s been doing after a breaking pitch goes by…
Petagine is, so far, by counting stats, the best player on the team.
Pitchers ranked by RSAA – Hitters by RCAA (as of Sunday morning):
4 Petagine
2 Johjima
2 Felix
2 Soriano
2 Washburn
1 Harris
1 Meche
1 Moyer
1 Pineiro
1 Woods
1 Ibanez
1 Reed
0 Sexson
0 Sherrill
-1 Putz
-1 Bloomquist
-1 Borchard
-1 Lopez
-1 Ichiro
-2 Guardado
-2 Everett
-3 Betancourt
-4 Beltre
-4 Mateo
The team scored 30 runs in seven games at Safeco Field against the toughest group of starting pitchers any team has faced so far this year
The only catch being that they face two more back-to-back series against the A’s and Angels.
The other thing is that they were only outscored 33-30, but there was a larger difference in OPS (.675-.777), homers (5-9), extra base hits (23-15), walks (20-26), and baserunners (74-86) than you’d think.
Richie Sexson has one walk and nine strikeouts in 26 at-bats. And he’s the patient hitter in the line-up.
Yeah, the good news is Dino Carl is projecting out to 110 BB’s…but the bad news is he’s also looking like he’s in the middle of Old Player’s Disease (taking a lot more pitches because he’s only able to drive mistakes).
I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again- this team doesn’t have a lot of patient, disciplined hitters, and while I think they’ll score runs, they’ll also be prone to having some pretty nasty slumps, too.
I dont think Hargrove lasts long enough to cause too much stress this season.
I know there’s general positives about Dan Rohn, anyone who’s a more seasoned Tacoma watcher have specific things they like about him?
Anybody else seen this from the PI site? http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/archives/102441.asp
“Well, Monday will see Snelling in the lineup in Peoria, Ariz., with the Mariners minor leaguers as the DH. Indications are that Snelling will be back playing much sooner than the 60-day DL would have allowed.”
Could be a silver lining this year anyway?
Eponymous has a point. We scored 30 runs, but we did it with a batting line of .237/.315/.360. Eww. That’s slightly worse than Reed’s 2005 line.
Another note: We’ve seen Pineiro be Good Pineiro in two starts. He was about as good as he possibly could be, given his diminished pitching repertoire. And the results are about as good as we can expect — Beltre’s error Sunday notwithstanding, which stuck Joel with two needless earned runs.
Those who expect better from Pineiro, though, are in for disappointment. Against patient, plate-disciplined teams who don’t let Joel’s middling stuff jerk their chains (Frank Thomas notwithstanding, who clearly isn’t what he used to be), Pineiro is going to lose even when he’s at the top of his game.
Couple of observations I think we need to cover: Beltre isn’t bad, he’s wildly inconsistent. I saw both games close up this weekend, Saturday, Beltre was bad, flailing. Yesterday, he was patient and while not great numbers was decent enough. Depending on the day, he’s either guessing at the pitch before it’s thrown (a few video replays made it look like his swing was started before the pitcher released the ball) or resolved to not swing at all.
Ichiro! is not Ichiro! He’s getting contact, but it’s consistently going directly to the 1st basement or pitcher or fould behind the 3rd base line. He’s not going to beat out many infield hits this year, so he’ll need to look to put balls in the gaps more. We need him to be able to hit Oakland pitching.
I’m going to assume Willie Ignitor was in only because Reed was not really recovered yet, not because Hargrove thought it was a good idea.
2 of Richie’s strikeouts so far look like really bad calls, he’s getting called strikes for stuff below his knees (umps don’t seem to adjust to a 6′8″ batter very well) that shouldn’t have been called. hopefully he’ll start getting better calls or he’ll have to start swinging at more and more crap leading to the strikeouts like last year.
Seeing Sweet Lou Saturday was cool. Looked like he had lost some weight too.
Seeing how Mateo has been a bigtime flyball guy and how bad he has been thus early (small sample size, I know), was it a mistake not to deal him this offseason? I have to imagine if he gets dealt this year (Which Dave has predicted) that we don’t get the value for him if it had been done a few months ago.
These are the kinds of guys you move in attempt to get something quality back for. Sell high.
24: I’d love to think that you are on the right track, but at this point I’m look at anything Snelling gives to the M’s as pure bonus. When you re-tear your ACL running to first, it doesn’t bode well for long term durability
At this point, Mateo is a trade throw-in at best. Most other teams, given their more hitter-friendly ballparks, won’t want such an extreme flyballer.
Re# 27 — If Hargrove was simply looking to give Reed a day off, he has a better option in Borchard, an OF by training. I actually believe that Hargrove thought/thinks that Bloomquist is his best bench player.
“At this point, Mateo is a trade throw-in at best. Most other teams, given their more hitter-friendly ballparks, won’t want such an extreme flyballer.”
Have all teams really learned this lesson yet, though? One would have assumed this would have been pretty common knowledge by 2005, but the Reds still decided to plunk down a whole bunch of money for Eric Milton. The degree to which Milton was bad last year wasn’t predictable, but underperforming his contract certainly was.
Even this offseason, you can look at the Royals, who have a pretty hitter-friendly ballpark, especially during the warm months in the summer, and they decided to ink Scott Elarton to a 2-year $8M contract. PECOTA has him forecasted for a 38% GB rate, which works out to something like a 0.62 G/F ratio, and I would say that qualifies as an extreme flyballer.
I don’t know exactly what you could get for Mateo, but I’m sure some teams are gullible enough that you could get something for him.
Oh yeah, other random thoughts: The Big Hurt seems to be on the Carl Everett aging train. And also looks like he’s trying not to piss when up at the plate (just the only way i can describe that batting stance). They must learn how to yank Pinero BEFORE he runs out of gas. Better 1 pitch to early than too late.
Most other teams, given their more hitter-friendly ballparks, won’t want such an extreme flyballer.
Two words:
Ryan Phranklin
Pretty much by definition, all pitchers who don’t complete an inning get pulled one batter, or one pitch, too late.
Except LOOGYs.
Which reminds me of something I noticed watching a Jays game last week.
The Jays were changing pitchers, and brought in Scott Schoeneweis. The Jays announcers described Schoeneweis as a LOOGY. On TV. They even defined it (Lefty-One-Out-GuY). It was so cool.
Toronto may not be quite as stathead friendly as they claim they are, but they certainly speak the language.
yes but did they inform their listeners to the value of keeping the ball down and throwing the first pitch strike?
You’d be more likely to hear Pat Tabler talk about how teams cost themselves too many runs by getting caught stealing.
but that’s, like, true!
It’s really quite surprising. The Jays replaced their whole announcing team after John Cerutti died, and suddenly they make a whole lot more sense.
btw, is it me, or is Hendu even more incomprehensible and ill-informed than in previous years? Is he trying to make us long for Dave Valle?
Hendu did criticise Willie’s dive the other day. That was refreshing.
I saw a bunch of Jays games last summer on Canadian TV with their announcers, and I was uniformly impressed by them. There was one guy, an ex-player, who was especially good (wish I could remember his name). They weren’t afraid to leave “dead air” when nothing much was happening — they didn’t feel compelled to discribe everything I’m already seeing or recall some dim glory days gone by or start nattering on about something irrelevant — and they didn’t repeat any of the stupid shibboleths that seem to infect so many announcers (including the Mariners’). If it was relevant they’d mention things like on-base percentage and slugging rather than the usual avg/rbi/HRs. So I’m not surprised they’re defining LOOGY.
Agree with you about Sean Green, Dave, but he’s having a bit of an issue with his control. Watched the game yesterday, and he was missing – a lot – to the first base side. He hit a LHB square in the back on a 1-2 count, and then kept peppering that same spot (about 3 feet out of the zone) to a RH batter. It certainly seems like a small mechanical fix, but until he corrects it, I think they’ll keep him down on the farm. Once he corrects it, he’ll be *extremely* valuable out of the pen. He just refuses to give up fly ball outs – it’s like fly balls did him wrong years ago, and he *will not forgive*.
Basically everyone on the Rainiers staff has looked impressive (Cha Baek!); they’ve got options if they need some temporary help.
Anyone know how many options Francisco Cruceta has left?
So the M’s have to face the Indians followed by the Red Sox, immediately after dropping 3 to the Athletics. The power rankings of those three teams by SI’s John Donovan? Numbers 1, 2, and 3. (But wait, the Brewers are fourth. Fourth? The Brewers? And the Cubs right after them? With Sheets, Prior, and Wood all still on the DL?)
Man, this is a brutal early schedule. If you wanted to set it up to get Hargrove and/or Bavasi hired, this is how you’d do it. By the time the M’s are facing the middling teams a lot of fans will probably have already written them off.
Jesse Foppert’s looking shaky but effective tonight so far:
4 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 4 walks, 4 Ks
34 balls, 34 strikes, 3 groundball outs, 3 flyball outs.
4K’s + 3 GO + 3 FO = 3.33 innings. So, 2 more – DP? CS? …. ?
Here’s a random thought, why not start Moyer on Thursday instead of Friday? That would give the King 6 days off between starts and Jaime would still be on his 5 day rotation and it would spare Moyer having to face the “Monster”! Come on Hargrove give it a shot!
found when looking for something else, it’s your 1990 amateur draft:
With Texas high school pitching phenom Todd Van Poppel apparently intent on attending the University of Texas, the Atlanta Braves selected high school shortstop Chipper Jones from Jacksonville, Fla., as the top choice in the draft conducted in New York.
Detroit followed Atlanta by picking Tony Clark of Christian High School in El Cajon, Calif. Clark, a 6-foot-7-inch outfielder who has been recruited to play basketball at Arizona, batted .543 this season.
Philadelphia then chose catcher Mike Lieberthal from Westlake High School in Westlake Village, Calif. He hit .500 with 13 homers and 42 RBIs this season.
The Cubs drafting fourth, selected right-hander Alex Fernandez of Miami-Dade South Community College, who was 12-2 with a 1.19 ERA this season. He chalked up 154 strikeouts in 121 innings.
Pittsburgh followed by choosing 6-5 right-hander Kurt Miller, 9-1 at West High School in Bakersfield, Calif. Seattle then chose outfielder-first baseman Mark Newfield from Marina High School in Huntington Beach, Calif., where he hit .486.
Cincinnati next selected Dan Wilson, a defensive wizard (.377, 8 homers, 44 RBIs), and Cleveland followed with Tim Costo, a 6-5, 205-pound power hitter.
Los Angeles then tabbed Blanchard (Okla.) high school left-hander Ron
Walden, 11-0 with a 0.36 ERA. The New York Yankees next chose outfielder Carl Everett, from Tampa’s Hillsborough High, the school that has produced such major-leaguers as Dwight Gooden, Gary Sheffield and Floyd Youmans. Everett batted .519 this season.
Next, Montreal went for shortstop Shane Andrews, who batted .546 for
Carlsbad (N.M.) High School. Minnesota chose right-hander Todd Ritchie from Duncansville (Texas) High School and St. Louis picked left-hander Donovan Osborne from UNLV.
Oakland, gambling Van Poppel might change his mind on his plans to pitch college ball, then chose the 6-5 right-hander from Martin High School in Arlington, Texas. Van Poppel recorded a 10-3 record and 145 strikeouts in 86 innings this season.
San Francisco chose outfielder Adam Hyzdu from Moeller High School in
Cincinnati, and Texas went for Creighton left-hander Dan Smith.
The New York Mets selected Oklahoma State outfielder Jeromy Burnitz, and St. Louis chose shortstop Aaron Holbert from Jordan High School in Long Beach, Calif. Catcher Eric Christopherson from San Diego State went to the San Francisco Giants, and Stanford right-hander Mike Mussina was chosen by Baltimore.
46 -
Foppert is getting by on a good breaking ball and grit at this point. Low hits/runs, 1k/9 = good. Walking one per inning, and topping out at 88MPH? Not so good. Tonight’s performance was eerily reminiscent of a quality Damian Moss start.
He’s still got time, and hey, it’s not like he’s getting blasted out there. But 1:1 K/BB and sub-90 MPH is… a little worrying, no matter how many runs are crossing the plate.
So Tacoma beat itself tonight, with a heckuva lot of unearned runs coming in on errors.
What was good about tonight’s game? Atchison looked reasonably sharp. Cabrera made a really nice play at short. And that, my friends, was about it.
loaiza is a fifth starter at best. he is not an “upper tier mid-rotation” guy.
#46 — Sitting behind home plate, Foppert’s command could use improvement. In his four innings, he walked four and struck out four. Of course, compared to Oldham and Looper, he looked great, but that is not saying much. The Rainers were quite sloppy in the field, too. Kudos go to Bohn who got on base 4 times, and Morse who got 2 hits. Johnson showed a good throwing arm (he’s thrown out ever batter who has attempted to steal on him so far), but could improve his blocking of pitches at the plate, as well as his hitting. Overall, I had the feeling of Deja Vu — the Rainers did not look as good against the Sacremento (A’s affiliate) as we had hoped going in to the series.
On the other hand, Jeremy Brown did impress me. Hit a home run to left and did a good job catching, too. Bobby Kielty didn’t look particularly impressive, though.
#50 — The comparison to a “good” Damian Moss start is scary but accurate. Moderate velocity. Mediocre command. Looks a lot better facing AAA hitters than he would in MLB. Foppert has a better breaking ball than Moss, although he seems unable to get it over the plate consistently. Let’s hope that Foppert gains arm strength as the season goes on, so that he can be throwing in the low 90s by July/August.
Beltre has had seven years at the major league level to learn to recognize pitches. His ‘04 notwithstanding, his career numbers are entirely consistent with what we saw at the plate in ‘05 and are seeing now. I wouldn’t be a penny on him learning to recognize what the pitcher is throwing or doing. Adrian’s glove is what you’d expect on a $13M-a-year guy, but his bat . . . . Wish they’d moved him in the offseason, but there it is.
The sad thing about Willie B. playing CF is that it’s quite clear that he’s being written in at that position to get his bat in the lineup. He makes a bit of contact against LHPs, Reed doesn’t much, and Grover vastly overrates the difference. To play Bloomers against a LHP otherwise, Hargrove would have to sit Lopez, Beltre, or Raul, and that’s not going to happen on any frequent basis. That said, Bloomers never played CF before last year, has no apptitude whatsoever for the position, and anyone playing him there deserves what they get. CF is the most important position on the field after catcher exactly because if you screw up out there it’s extra-bases, exactly like the single Willie ‘hustled’ into a triple.
I’m not that worried about the bullpen. There have been good performances as well as bad, no one has had time to get in any kind of groove yet, and the Ms have viable Plan Bs in Tacoma.
Bloomquist v LHP, 2003-2005: .257/.306/.350
Reed v LHP, same: .200/.285/.273
That’s fairly huge, if you want to put credence in them. Which you shouldn’t, for a variety of reasons, but if you really think that’s the comparison Hargrove’s making, well… that’s 100 points of OPS, and that’s pretty huge.
Derek, I’m aware of that difference and it’s degree, yes, and that is the comparison I’m making. The issues with it are: a) Bloomquist is thoroughly mediocre at best, so that while he’s better than Reed against lefties you want to get someone in there who REALLY can hit, and b) Bloomquist is so inferior defensively that it’s a bad move. The point in the comment there is that Bloomers just isn’t good enough often enough. I have no problem with Reed being platooned against lefties, though, that’s the move to make.