Premature Report Card
Well, the season is officially 8.64 percent over with. With the first 14 games in the books, we can officially begin to engage in small sample size theatre grading, where we make premature and most likely wrong characterizations about a the next 148 games of the season based on what we saw the first two weeks.
But, let’s be honest, it’s fun. So, on we go.
Catchers: A+
Kenji Johjima has been everything you could have hoped for and more. He’s making solid, consistent contact, driving the ball, working the count, and basically being the best hitter on the team. He’s also not taking days off, which means less Guillermo Quiroz and Rene Rivera, which is always a good thing. We loved the Johjima signing at the time, and there’s no reason to love it any less now. If he plays like this all season, he’s an MVP candidate. Even with an expected fall off, he was a great addition.
First Base: C
On the positive side, Richie Sexson is still healthy and he’s driven in a bunch of runs. On the negative side, there’s, well, everything else. 3 walks and 17 strikeouts in 53 at-bats? Did he beat down Randall Simon and steal his plate discipline? The lack of contact has driven down his average, and in turn, his on base percentage, both of which are well below what we’d expect. Thankfully, we should be use to Sexson being a streaky hitter, and I’m not worried. Just stay healthy and hit bombs. And occassionally draw a walk, too, okay?
Second Base: A
Jose Lopez has been as advertised; an aggressive hitter with above average power and solid defense at second base. His average will fluctuate, and his value will be determined by whether he hits .250 or .300, but he’s going to be a contributor to the M’s thanks to his power. He’s settled in at the #2 hole for now, but I doubt that lasts the season.
Shortstop: B
Okay, so, Betancourt’s not hitting well. .227 with one walk in 44 at-bats is a great way to kill a bunch of rallies. But half of his hits are doubles, and he’s been driving the ball with more authority than the cliched slap-hitting shortstop. The singles will come, and when they do, his average will raise to the .260-.280 range. Combine that with his other worldly abilities in the field and you have a terrific shortstop.
Third Base: F-
Adrian Beltre has been so unbelievably terrible at the plate that it’s been almost impossible to believe. Forget about 2004 for now – he’s looked like a carcas of what he was last season, when he was as bad as he’s ever been as a professional. The glaring problem is his pitch recognition skills, as he stares at 88 MPH meatballs down the heart of the plate while flailing at breaking balls around his ankles. I have never seen a major league hitter look this bad at the plate. Not Bloomquist, not Gipson, no one. Pitchers don’t look this confused. I’d have no problem ordering Beltre to watch 10 hours of video a day until he learns how to pick up the spin of a baseball coming out of the pitchers hand.
Left Field:C
Raul Ibanez continues to slap singles through holes, hitting for a high average and being a productive part of the offense even without significant power or a great approach at the plate. He’s also terrible defensively, and his play in left field has been gut wrenching at times. The decision to keep Raul roaming the outfield while Matt Lawton DH’d was mind numbing, but we’ll get to coaching in a minute.
Center Field: C
Jeremy Reed’s new nickname; The Anomoly. Throughout his career, he’s flashed a variety of skills, though he never seems to be able to use them simultaneously. He became well known when he posted absurd walk/strikeout rates in Winston-Salem and then hit .400 in Birmingham, but he failed to show significant power in the minors. Now? He’s shown some pop, is driving the ball with authority, and is struggling to get singles or command the strike zone. A 2/10 BB/K for Reed? Really? Odds are he’ll come around, the walks will go up, and hopefully the power stays, but right now, who knows?
Right Field: D
At some point, Ichiro’s unique skills are going to disappear, and he’s going to be a terrible major league player. I’m pretty sure that point hasn’t come yet, but he’s hitting .190/.277/.276 and posting a 1.00 G/F rate, the lowest of his career. As Jeff Sullivan has pointed out, Ichiro’s success is directly tied to his ability to whack the ball on the ground. Until he gets back to hitting worm burners, we have a really expensive out machine leading off. At least he still plays defense, unlike…
DH: F-
A DH who is hitting .163/.308/.349 is a problem. When he comes with a veteran reputation that keeps his manager running him out there on a daily basis in the face of better options, he becomes a plague. Carl Everett hasn’t been a good hitter in several years, but the Mariners are going to continue to let him rot in the DH spot until they’re convinced he’s done. We were convinced of that before they signed him. Let’s hope Mike Hargrove comes around quickly.
Bench: B
Roberto Petagine is 2-4 with a double, a home run, and a walk as a pinch hitter. He has a long history of smoking every pitcher he sees, and tore the cover off the ball in spring training. He has 0 starts. Meanwhile, Joe Borchard, Willie Bloomquist, and Matt Lawton are finding their way into the line-up when the regulars get a day off. So while the bench has played rather well, their usage has been abysmal, which drags down the grade. But, again, we’ll get to coaching in a little bit.
Rotation C
Moyer and Pineiro have ridden their strike-throwing junkball ways to success, Jarrod Washburn has been great and terrible, Felix has just been terrible, and Gil Meche still sucks. Thankfully, no one believes Felix is going to continue to be terrible, and once his velocity returns to the high-90s, he’ll be dominating again. So there’s hope here, if Moyer and Pineiro can continue to win with smoke and mirrors, that the rotation won’t be quite as bad as feared.
Bullpen: B+
Guardado’s walk off yesterday notwithstanding, the team’s relievers have essentially been quite good. J.J. Putz, since taking my advice and throwing his splitter more frequently, has been unhittable, posting a crazy 14/1 K/BB rate in 7 1/3 innings while still maintaining his groundball dominance. Soriano has looked terrific while showing mid-90s velocity again, and Sherrill has been dominating when he can get the ball over the plate. Those three offer legitimate late game arms that inspire some confidence, and Guardado and Mateo are not useless, though they have appeared to be at times. The pen will be fine.
Coaching: F
Hargrove’s players aren’t big fans of his. The front office doesn’t love the guy. The fans have turned on him. He makes lousy, lousy, lousy in-game management decisions. He has no flexibility, refuses to use his roster optimally, and is a slave to common wisdom while trying to avoid any kind of public criticism. The sooner he’s removed from his position, the better, and this from a guy with a long stance of supporting the idea that managers in general don’t matter.
Overall: B+
6-8 against four of the best teams in baseball while positing a positive run differential? I’ll take that every time. The team is staying afloat despite terrible performances from its stars, so unless each elite player the M’s have is going to collapse all at once, there is serious room for growth. If the gains made by the supporting cast be sustained to any extent and Ichiro, Beltre, and Felix return to any semblance of their past glory, this team could be a lot of fun to watch. There are definite reasons for optimism in what we’ve seen so far.
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… And if we take the idea that one run games are essentially luck (as opposed to manager incompetence), then the mighty M’s are really looking okay.
When your DH and your two most expensive hitters (or two of the three – not sure where Ichiro sits in relation to Sexson) are all hitting under .200, a 6-8 record is pretty good. Ichiro still has a way to go before he gets below his weight though (and I don’t believe the listed weight of 172 – I would guess 150, 155).
I love waking up in the morning and seeng a thread where we can bash Grover. He needs to go. And I hope that if he goes, Everett will see much less playing time.
I would temper Kenji’s grade by giving him an A. Not that I haven’t been completely ecstatic every time he comes to the plate (especially with runners on — what a novel feeling, this expectation and hope!) but that his defense has seemed to have a few holes at times. He calls a great game and has made some terrific plays (charging an incoming throw at home so he can get the guy going to third), but there have been some passed balls on pitches that weren’t that bad.
And this team has been fun to watch. The non-star guys have picked up some slack and they have shown the ability to come back on some good teams this year. Go M’s!
[...] Dave at USSMariner has posted his Premature Report Card for the Seattle Mariners at the 14 game mark. It’s early, so nothing really matters at this point, but it’s interesting to read nevertheless. Since he has the stats on his side, I have no cause for argument on any particular point, other than to repeat that, well, it’s a long season. [...]
Minor criticism: the current run differential is -1.
Otherwise, yeah.
M’s Blogosphere: A+
Did Bavasi make comments at the feed that lead people to believe that it’s only a matter of time before Grover is canned?
Hargrove was a terrible signing to begin with. Everett another terrible sign. How much is SF paying Winn? What happened there? I can understand Beltre and Ichiro staying out there. Their defense and the fact that they are 2/3 of our 150 million dollar connection, but why aren’t we seeing more Petigine in at DH. I don’t want to wait and see if Everett comes along as the so called experts say he will. I am still a little excited about the season so far. Few people (Ichiro, Beltre and DH) come along and the guys producing now keep producing, I think we are better off then expected.
Mike Hargrove, the George Bush of MLB says:
“This isn’t vindictive, it isn’t done to punish Adrian,†Hargrove said. “We need to get him untracked and this – hopefully – is part of the process.”
Agree with these grades for the most part (but probably would give Beltre an F+ for defense). And we could be sooo much better if we could just add a decent right-handed bat that can play defensive outfield (Bloomquist and Borchard aren’t real options) and a #5 starter. Any in-house candidates for either at this point? I can’t believe Hargrove or his replacement will keep trotting Meche out there for much longer.
On track. They need to get him on track.
Not untracked. I hate that. Learn your idioms, Grover.
Maybe the reporter misunderstood him and he really said “off crack.”
At this point, I’m a growing fan of the “fire Hargrove” mentality.
My reason for this might be a little different than most people’s though.
I’d like to see Hargrove fired because it sends a strong signal that management realizes that the current setup of the team isn’t getting things done, and that more changes could and will be coming if performance doesn’t improve.
So it’s a way you can give a franchise a wakeup call while getting rid of a piece of the puzzle that doesn’t affect overall performance all that much.
Plus a new manager might be more willing to, say, bench Everett than an existing one.
#11. Always wondered about that. Many people say untracked when back on track always made more sense. Good post! Oh, we should have swept Boston with a little imagination, like not batting
Lost the last part. ….under .150 hitters in the heart of the order, Ichiro aside.
This may be a stupid question, but who do the M’s bring in if they run Grover out of town? Who — with any experience — is better and waiting in the wings? I know what you will say: “Anybody is better than Grover!” But I am not so sure that’s true. Giving a coach a promotion to his first Managerial job or taking on an unknown from outside doesn’t seem to be much more than a write-off to the season. Of course, if Hargrove goes before the season is over, my guess is we are 15-20 games out of first in the AL West, so the season will probably be written off. Let’s pay the money to get a proven guy in here, and not somebody who had sick talent on his club such that it blurred his inability to manage in the past.
Great analysis. I couldn’t agree more.
Thrilled with Lopez and Kenji.
Big disappointment in Felix. For his opening start, I drove the family up from Portland and was disappointed in his inconsistency. Dang! I hope the guy puts it together tonight….. of course, that is what I thought would happen against the Indians last week.
Beltre I truly had big hopes for. Okay, switch leagues, mediocore first year~ sophmore year will be better. Ahhhhh, NO.
I think my third grade son has a better shot at the plate.
I am not really disappointed in Everett, because he really has lived up to my expectations.
The one that is really killing me…. .and I mean Killing me is Ichiro!. .179 BATTING AVERAGE!. By the way, he is on my fantasy team~ which kills the team average all the more. Please pull out of the slump. please.
Anybody see the latest Meche-ism in the PI this morning?? Throwing Joh under the bus this time for the second Ortiz HR…
I hope yesterday’s 2 for 3 performance is a sign that Beltre is on track. It will happen. I believe.
They don’t bring anyone in. They let Rohn take over, as Bavasi’s indicated he would.
[...] Over at the USS Mariner, Dave runs down the M’s report card at the 14 game mark. It maybe a bit pre-mature and even Dave says that himself, but it’s a fun read none the less. So if you get a chance go check it out.. [...]
Yeah, I’d have to say Dan Rohn would be the likely choice.
I don’t think Hargrove is around past this season anyway, my personal feeling is that Rohn’s current “job” is just to keep him from leaving while they wrap up Hargrove’s stint as a manager. I’d lay good money on Rohn already having been told he’ll be the manager in 2007.
Why not start early?
Man, I don’t get some people. It’s hard for me to fathom all of this “Felix….big disappointment” talk. It’s been 2 freakin starts and people are starting to sound as if he’s trying thier patience at this point. The Trib ran a piece today saying that Chavez found a flaw in Felix’s delivery (legs crossing over) and that Felix threw a great bullpen session after the problem was corrected. Calmo people. Calmo.
As for Ichiro: This isn’t the first poor April he’s ever had so calm down about him to.
As for Beltre, by all means, panic.
Well, if Beltre is on track to hit .170, perhaps they should get him untracked.
And what is up with posts #4 and #21???
Have we exhaustively discussed Rohn in other places here? If so, I don’t want to re-hash. Based on what I know he’s got solid minor league managerial experience and seems to be a decent tech geek (much of it learned in his new position), which, hopefully, means he won’t let gut instinct totally ignore the data. What is the general feeling about a move like that? I guess I want a big name in here who has won the whole thing before.
#7, 20– just to be accurate, at the feed Bavasi didn’t mention either Rohn or the length of Hargrove’s leash; it was Dave who said that it was his understanding from talking to people he knew.
The problem is finding a good enough excuse to can Hargrove, and unfortunately the team is hanging in there with some major holes.
oh, I think Adrian’s problem is that he is untracked.
Some questions:
— What do we know that tells us that the players don’t like or respect Hargrove?
— If it were up to you, who would lead off for the Mariners?
— Other than remedial instruction, what to do with Beltre? Bat him ninth? Pull him from the lineup altogether? Would either of those two be so damaging to his professional self-esteem that it might offset any gains he makes instructionally? To what extent does his defense offset his lack of offensive value?
— Is there a good book in Petagine’s story? “The Batter Who Fell From Grace With The Leagues”?
— Who in the organization is Meche’s defender?
— Who would be your first in-house option, organizationally speaking, should Meche flounder to the point that he has to be removed?
— Is Moyer’s early “success” sustainable? It always seemed like he was an inch away from getting killed in Boston.
— What’s the early book on Rafael Chaves?
By the way, it’s “anomaly.”
Dan Rohn: Highly Aggressive manager, doesn’t bunt in the second inning, loves the long ball. Will likely lead MLB in ejections every year with his Lou like tantrums.
#25– I guess I want a big name in here who has won the whole thing before.
such as?
coincidently, Kirby Arnold also has an early report card
Is Moyer’s early success sustainable? It always seemed like he was an inch away from getting killed in Boston.
There are two answers to that.
First, Moyer’s looked like he was an inch away from getting killed for years.
Second, in Boston, no one should reasonable expect Moyer to do well. Moyer excels in Safeco, and pretty much nowhere else.
So, to answer the question, if he keeps pitching in Fenway, no. If he plays mostly in Safeco, yes.
Jesse Foppert or Bobby Livingston are candidates to replace Meche. I would say Foppert. Then do you send Meche to the pen? If so, who leaves the pen to do so?
That was an interesting statement about Ichiro’s leadership on the team. That was something that I was eagerly awaiting word on since it’s not something that makes itself apparent during the games. Has anyone else heard/seen anything that gives an indication of Ichiro’s leadership?
#32 – read the Rainiers game report in the previous article. I don’t think Jesse’s ready for prime time quite yet…
I do understand, however is Meche?
Yes, I have to give Beltre some credit for his great defense, so at least an F+ is warranted. As for his hitting, I agree, I haven’t seen a position player look this bad at the plate since I-don’t-know-when. Charles Gipson is probably a good comparison, but not Willie B, as he actually recognizesd a baseball when it is thrown from the mound.
I’m also higher than a C on Raul and lower than an A+ on Kenji, but whatever. I’m happy that Johjima and Lopez are doing as well as they are, and hoping that C-Rex gets hurt and DL’ed.
I don’t understand why people are hesitant with Livingston. Yes, he may not be successful in the majors. But when you’ve been a success at every other level, maybe we should stop overthinking his chances of doing well and just give him an extended chance.
He’s got good K/W ratios, he’s young, he’s healthy, he gets groundballs. What’s missing … other than blazing heat? (You know, because Meche can dial it up to 98 and all ….)
JJ took your advice?
Wow, you guys have more pull here than I thought…
msb, that’s the real problem isn’t it, the well isn’t that deep for multiple winners. But hell, pay whatever you have to to steal a guy away. Torre’s more likely to retire eventually than go elsewhere, but make it a hard decision. Play Yankee-ball with him, and see what happens. Let’s throw some money at Bobby Cox. One WS win, but a division winner year in and year out. Wheel out Sparky Anderson if you have to (he’s actually only 6 years older than Torre, though that’s still 72). I honestly don’t know what kind of health he’s in. I concede that these things will never happen and that I am putting emotion over reality right now, but show me you want the big time. Lasorda’s only 78! A spring chicken!
Kirby Arnold’s observation about Felix being fat, soft and out of shape sounds right on target to me. The biggest problem with a young kid who’s being touted as the next Doc Gooden, and has tasted a little success, is keeping his head screwed on all the way. Natural talent + long long ways from home + more money than anyone he knows has ever seen before = recipe for trouble. Kids have trouble focusing in the best of circumstances. Fortunately being fat and soft is neither rare or uncorrectable, and I think Felix will be fine.
And if he’s a disappointment to you after TWO STARTS, then I’d say the problem lies with you, not him.
Nothing Hargrove has done is jeopardizing his employment with the club, however much it mihgt infuriate USSMers.
Foppert? I think folks had better wait until he gets his act together; what I’ve heard has not been very impressive.
Livingston? Better…but still not at a level that inspires confidence. I still don’t see a reason to bring him up yet.
You’re out of your mind — Sparky Anderson? If the M’s are going to throw big bucks at someone, I’d prefer it be someone who actually plays baseball. Manager doesn’t make much difference, and “proven winners” are good for nothing.
Don’t forget that “proven winners” on the diamond appear to be good for nothing as well.
#41: What is required, in your view, to “inspire confidence”?
The argument that Felix has somehow suddenly tasted success is bunk. He got a ton of money to sign as an undrafted free agent, far more than he’s getting this year, and it didn’t turn him into a turnip.
And he’s lighter than he was at the end of last season.
#41 I ask, Is Meche any better right now then Livingston could be. Foppert even for that matter.
Re: #40 — “Nothing Hargrove has done is jeopardizing his employment.” Is there some sort of fight between Bavasi and Grover over the roster construction and usage: more middle infielders so Willie can play, too many left handed bats, carrying 11 or 12 pitchers?
and please note that Arnold did not actually ask anyone about Felix’ weight, conditioning or shape, he just noted that he “seemed heavier than the media guide listing of 220 pounds.” Oddly enough, Felix also looks heavier than the previous media guide listing of 170 lbs.
Catchers- Johjima is on track for 30 passed balls, so A+ seems a little gushy. Could just be adjustment period, but I am a bit worried about teflon glove.
3b- never seen a hitter this bad? You must have been in rehab in 1996. Cuz we had another 3b that year who was worse. If you were there you saw not only a worse hitter (unlike Beltre he was only good for a three week period in 1995) , but arguably, among players who actually had a career, the worst player in the history of major league baseball, Jeff Manto. Couldnt hit, couldnt field his position, no run. An inexplicable career unrivaled in the combination of futility and longevity, the guy signed a contract as late as 2000!
Coaching- thanks for putting into words what I suspected.
BTW, clearly should have called piece, “Premature Evaluation,” no brainer.
Meche is not only not better than Livingston, but he’s more than exhausted his chances to prove otherwise. Meche is up and Livingston down only because of a voodoo-like belief in the power of experience.
Spending a ton of money to hire an elderly manager just because he’s won before is an absurd idea. Spend the money on good players and hire a smart young manager and you’ll win.
Manto only played in what, twenty games with the Mariners in 1996? And he hit .185/.302/.296. Beltre’s hitting .143/.250/.143.
Jeff Manto, in those 20 games you remember, was a better hitter than Beltre is right now.
Also — generally speaking, Manto was a kind of Crash Davis-type player: he was really good in AAA but never managed to hit consistently against major-league stuff. It wasn’t that his approach was poor, or his pitch recognition was horrible. He just couldn’t hit.
That’s far different than what we’re talking about.
Are you sure? Because he sure looks fat to me. Maybe it’s just the ridiculous way he wears his uniform. He was pretty fat last year, too. And the money he’s earned so far puts him in the upper 99.99% of all Venezuelans. You don’t think he maybe sat around in the offseason at all?
I volunteer to manage the Mariners. I have no previous baseball management experience so I come cheap, I’m easy to fire, and I promise to not engage in counter-productive in-game strategies.
Steve T – can you share your sources on “nothing Hargrove has done is jeopardizing his employment with the club”? Because, you know, I’d like to know if I can become infuriated.
And it’s perfectly ok to be disappointed in the King’s first two starts. Heck, it’s ok to be disappointed in one at bat. No one is saying he is a flop or had a bad year or any other such nonsense.
#55
OK, you’re hired. Please start tomorrow. If Bavasi has any questions with regards to my executive decision, please have him call me at 1-800 WINNERS
Glass half-full observation – Ms are leading the AL in SBs and non-HR XBHs – plus they’ve outscored Texas so far
Did you know that Jeff Manto is one of only 35 players in major-league history to hit a home run in four consecutive at-bats?
It is the only lits in which he will ever be named along with Ralph Kiner, Barry Bonds, Stan Musial, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle … and Albert Pujols, who joined the club just last night.
And like Crash Davis, Jeff Manto makes a hell of a good coach. He’s getting good early reviews as the hitting coach in Pittsburgh.
Also, Manto has the most home runs in Dunn Tire Park (Buffalo) history, with 47.
“Please don’t tell anyone … it’s kind of a dubious honor, don’t you think?”
No, I don’t have to “share my sources” — you have to share yours. That’s how it works when you make positive assertions. You can’t prove the negative, but when you assert that Hargrove’s going to be fired, you have to be able to give a reason.
Being a bad manager isn’t enough. There is no evidence in the history of baseball that being stupidly aggressive on the basepaths is considered to be bad strategy; macho front offices love that shit no matter how many games they run themselves out of. Playing Everett? I don’t think Hargrove has any choice in the matter; he’s going to play the most expensive guys, not the best guys. That is in accordance with standard baseball practice throughout history. Stupid? Sure. Going to get him fired? Not a chance.
Playing Bloomquist? He’s a fan and front office favorite. You think he sucks? I’m glad to hear you have a brain, but the M’s don’t agree with you or me.
Using Guardado in the traditional closer role? That’s what Hargrove is being paid to do.
If Hargrove wanted to get fired as quickly as possible he’d bench Everett and Beltre immediately, and he’d bring in Eddie in the fifth inning of a tie game. Boom, he’d be gone. Managers are not hired to think, they are hired to act out management cliches.
So… bottom line is that you don’t have any sources? That’s fine, obviously, but there is a big difference between should/shouldn’t and is/isn’t.
And “nothing Hargrove has done is jeopardizing his employment with the club” IS a positive assertion.
“… you have to be able to give a reason.” Re-reading Dave’s initial post, I count at least eight reasons he gives.
And I am less concerned with anyone naming sources then I am with knowing that they HAVE sources.
Of course there is a huge “difference between should/shouldn’t and is/isn’t”. That is precisely my point.
Whether or not Hargrove is a crappy manager is utterly immaterial to the question of whether he is going to be fired.
No manager has EVER been fired for “being a slave to common wisdom”. Being a slave to common wisdom is by far the best strategy to follow for a manager who wants to avoid being fired.
The folks here are the ones who are making this leap in logic from “bad at managing” to “is going to be fired”, not me. I think being a bad manager is a survival skill. If Hargrove suddenly got smart and creative, as people here suggest he should, THEN his job would be in jeopardy.
Then I think you might be missing a key piece of information here, Steve. Dave has sources that tell him that Hargrove’s job is hanging by a string – for all the reasons Dave lists.
So that is the only is/isn’t information we, or at least I, have.
Everything you are saying, while it may be valid, is speculation presented at declaration. And Dave’s info is information. Unless you choose to believe that Dave and/or his sources are just speculating, and that’s your choice. Personally, I’ve seen nothing on here to lead me to believe the authors would take that route.
Then again, Steve, win-loss records trump all.
If the M’s are, say, 16-30 at the end of May, Hargrove is gone.
Jeff Manto’s number is retired on the Buffalo Bisons. He spent so much time over so many different seasons here that I believe he hold the Bisons’ home run record. And the Bisons have been playing here since the 1870’s.
AAA, I know, but we’ve seen some pretty good players come through. Giles, Sexson, Bonilla, just about everyone on the Indians now.
Apropos of absolutely nothing, Jim Bowden arrested for DUI.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2412654
Hargrove is NOT a “slave to common wisdom.” Common wisdom says that when you want to give an outfielder a day off, you play one of your two reserve outfielders. Hargrove plays his reserve middle infielder.
Put me in coach, I’m ready to play, today.
Put me in coach, I’m ready to play.
Look at me, I can be . . .
Center field.
I agree with Jim. If the M’s miraculously win 90 games this year, Hargrove will be here, maybe with a 2-year extension (Bizarro-world stuff, I know). At or under .500, he’ll probably be gone. The juicy grey area in-between? Steve’s right that Hargrove’s firing won’t result from Guardado’s or Beltre’s melt-downs (if sustained). But given what we’ve heard from Dave and can pick up from the thin ice situation Bavasi himself faces, not to fire Hargrove would be a huge mistake for BB. Bavasi might survive a 75-win season, but Hargrove isn’t likely to.
Ah, finally, I get it. Beltre and Felix’ poor starts are part of the “suck till they fire Hargrove” strategy (don’t ask me who’s pulling the strings – it may be The Queen, The Vatican, The Gettys, The Rothschilds, or maybe Colonel Sanders…)
Then, when Rohn takes over, everything turns around and we make the playoffs as the wild card.
#67 – Jim, when are they going to arrest him for GMUI?
Add to the #70 conspiracy – Eddie G (if you’re trying to get Hargrove fired, I forgive you, Eddie.)
Just read rumor central on ESPN.com…they have Lawton to Dodgers or Petagine to the Rangers for a potential right handed back infield bat.
I personally would prefer the former, but if Petagine is traded it would be a sweet deal to pick up Ian Kinsler (he’s young and thus far has mashed until a thumb injury).
Any thoughts on this trade speculation?
“Dave has sources”. Am I the only one who sees a problem with that?
My “speculation” as you put it is empirically observed from looking at 150 years of professional baseball.
Dave has exactly two, not eight, reasons that could possibly be construed as coming from sources that matter, stated as follows: the players “aren’t big fans”, and the front office “doesn’t love the guy”. All the rest is stuff about the fans, who don’t matter, and Dave’s own opinions, which I share, but which also do not could as “information” by your standards.
There is absolutely no reason on earth supported by baseball history to suggest that being unloved by either players or front office threatens a manager’s job. The ONLY thing that threatens a manager’s job is losing, which is almost entirely independent of how good a job he does. If Hargrove can sit there while the M’s play well enough to win 85 or more games, the front office isn’t going to let their lack of “love” affect their decision one way or the other. And the players will likewise learn to live with the guy if they win ballgames.
I repeat: there is no evidence anywhere in the history of the game that suggests a manager who is bound by “the book” could be in jeopardy of losing his job if his team wins. So, if you think Hargrove is going to be the first, you are the one who needs to come up with something a little more substantial than “the players don’t love him”. Has anyone ever been fired from a winning team because the players didn’t love him?
If the M’s suck this year as bad as they did last year, Hargrove will be most likely gone. But it will have NOTHING TO DO with how well he manages the games. You are continuing to make an imaginary connection in your mind between “I don’t like the way this guy does his job” and “my perception of how this guy should be doing his job resembles that of the people who sign his paychecks”. There is no such relationship.
If on the other hand the only comments that are permitted on this website have to be backed by unsubstantiated–unsubstantiatable–front office knowledge, then y’all might as well close up shop now. Dave’s the only one who is privy to that knowledge, and he can’t tell us where it comes from. Doesn’t make for much of a discussion, does it?
Do take note of the fact that I wholeheartedly agree with Dave’s “F” grade for the coaching. Where I differ is with Dave’s leap from “should be fired” to “will be fired”, which I think is wishful thinking. I think my reasons for thinking so are pretty solid, and backed up by arguments even Dave would normally agree with.
But you want to cut off the discussion and say, “well, Dave has his secret sources and they say this”, even though they don’t say this at all — they say the front office “isn’t in love”. Well, jeez, Louise, I’m not in love with any of my co-workers either, but I don’t think they’re all going to be fired, or me either. Running a baseball team isn’t about love. But you’re saying that the discussion is over. I don’t agree.
Jim Thomsen: exactly my point. W-L trumps love every time.
If the M’s are 16-30 by the end of May, that’s what will get him fired. Not the way he uses Guardado or Everett. Likewise, if we’re somehow 30-16, Hargrove’s here to stay even if he pisses on Bavasi’s shoes every morning.
The Rangers love Kinsler, as far as I can tell. Plus, we don’t need a second baseman right now.
Petagine should be held on to, in my opinion. Lawton, on the other hand, should be unloaded if there’s no real role for him on the M’s. He still has some perceived value around baseball.
The M’s roster construction in some ways has been absolutely ridiculous. They’ve been whining in the press lately about how Everett, Lawton, Petagine, Borchard et al reduce their positional flexibility. Well, DUH. Who created that problem?
I’m not sure Lawton has any perceived value around baseball. The talk all spring was how happy he was the M’s picked him up, as only a couple teams would even return his calls.
Who would have thought that having seven Corner-OF/1B/DHs on the team would reduce your infield flexibility? How could you predict a thing like THAT?
Excuse me? I’m making what imaginary connection? Holy bushel full of strawmen.
1. I am not saying anything except that your statement “nothing Hargrove has done has jeopardized his emplyment with the club” is unsubstantiated and speculation, even though it is presented as information.
And one of the things Hargrove has done IS lose. And made a multitude of questionable or outright bad decisions while doing so.
2. I am not trying to cut down or eliminate speculation or discussion one bit. I am saying that if you are going to make a declaration that Dave is full of it, then support it. And if my choice is between Dave and his sources and you and your non-specific interpretation of the history of baseball… I think I’ll go with the sources.
Other than that you made half a dozen innaccurate representations of what I said. Discussion is over? I said that where?
76: no doubt…I agree completely. It makes more sense to unload a name with no real value rather than an under the radar guy with loads of value (imagine if he could actually get in a game at DH…2-4, 2 doubles and 2 RBI sure sounds like a foreign idea right now).
Is a guy like Ramon Martinez from the Dodgers a better fit in this situation? We need a reserve infielder, but it would be great if he could hit so we don’t have two WFB’s getting unwarranted ABs.
#74: Being unloved by the Front Office does cost successful managers their jobs. It happens frequently, with a couple of recent examples being Art Howe in Oakland and Grady Little in Boston.
Given that Johjima is still getting used to catching in this league (and the sheer number of balls in the dirt the M’s throw), I still think he’s miles and miles ahead of what we’ve had since Dan Wilson stopped being decent.
Here, how about a quick showing of Small Sample Size Theater:
Miguel Olivo 2005 RBI with M’s (54 games): 18
Kenji Johjima 2006 RBI with M’s (14 games): 10
And since so many people are hot-to-trot about Rivera, he had 1 HR, 4 XBH, 6 RBI, and 1 walk in 49 PA. Johjima has had 2 HR, 5 XBH, 10 RBI, and 3 walks in 49 PA.
Rivera, 2005: 20 TOB
Johjima, 2006: 25 TOB
Again, same number of PA for both of them, yet Johjima has 5 more TOB.
#80. Petigine is absolutely the better keep. He actually has 1 double and 1 HR. 2 for 4, 1hr, 1 dbl, 2 rbi, and 1 bb. No K’s. Granted only 5 plate appearances, but give him some ab’s and see what he does. I don’t think that is asking to much.
And my one issue with the coaching score is that it’s clear that Chaves is not doing F-level work as pitching coach. Hargrove may be in F-minus territory, but Chaves deserves a C+/B- so far. If he’s the one who convinced Piniero that he should work on being a Moyer-esque junkballer, I’d move it up to a B.
Free Dan Rohn!
Agree on Chaves and the pitching — but the guy who’s got to be going to bed in tears every night so far is Jeff Pentland.
Wasn’t Grady Little’s firing by Boston more for his personal protection than anything else?
From his view from the dugout, I’m hoping Derek will tell us if those low strikes to Richie are actually as far below his knees as they look on TV.
Richie needs to remind the umpires that he’s 6′8″.
John in LA: if you can explain how you get from “I agree wholeheartedly with Dave”, which is what I said, to “Dave is full of it”, which is what you heard me say — not misrepresenting your words, quoting them exactly — please do. Show your work. Likewise I’m interested to hear how you got from “the front office doesn’t love him”, which is what Dave said, to “his job is hanging by a thread” — another direct quote from you.
Key part of my platform: I would set a major league record for ejections during the regular season.
I hope at least one or two of those would be for arguing balls and strikes in the first inning, first batter preferably.
The ONLY thing that threatens a manager’s job is losing
Jim Lefebvre begs to differ. He was fired twice after managing teams to winning records following several losing seasons (’91 M’s; ‘93 Cubs).
There are many, many managers fired after winning seasons, or who are brought back after getting their teams to the playoffs. It happens.
I would be ejected over lineup cards, like my idol Earl Weaver.
And, seeing you in a baseball uniform might cause Bowden to sign you to a major-league deal…
DMZ, I like your platform and you have my vote (we do get to vote, right? I actually think it would be a nice touch during every game. How’s this for a routine: National Anthem, 1st Inning Beer, 2nd Inning Hot Dog, 3rd Inning Beer, 4th Inning Manager ejection, 5th Inning Beer, 6th Inning nachos, 7th Inning Stretch, 8th Inning Beer (do they cut us off by then?), 9th Inning Guardado save? I realize the 9th Inning is a long-shot as part of the routine, but I think the rest is pretty solid.
If Derek becomes manager, what does that do to his campaign to be GM? Can he do both jobs?
Of course if he get ejected over the lineup cards he would have a little time on his hands…
Steve T. Like I said, you may be missing information here, but Dave has said that his sources tell him that Hargrove is very much in jeopardy of losing his job, perhaps before too long. I tried to clear this up several posts ago.
So when you say that Hargrove has done nothing to jeopardize his job, please understand my desire to know if you have competing sources.
If not, if it is just your opinion, that;s fine. But I’d like to know if it is your opinion or if you have front office insight so I know how to weigh your declaration.
That’s it.
Yes, Derek, but how many of those managers also guest starred on TV’s Batman, Gilligan’s Island, and M*A*S*H*?
83: my line wasn’t what he has done so far this year…it was a an average line for Petagine if he actually got 4-5 PAs in a game. (it seems like rocket science for Grover, but it’s not because I am no rocket scientist)
Long time reader, first time poster. Love the insight.
Beltre flailing at breaking balls reminds me so much of Pedro Cerrano in Major League it’s unreal. It’s FRUSTRATING! He still has a good glove though. Which, along with that fat contract, is saving him.
I’d definitely like to see what Petagine can give us. Why MUST he sit on the bench every game? There have been plenty of times this year when I would have liked to see him stroll up to the plate with men on, in scoring position, late in the game but Hargrove let Reed, Betancourt, et al have at it.
Everett hasn’t shown me much — maybe more than Beltre (barely) — but I think Hargrove needs to give Petagine a start or 2 at DH then have Everett come off the bench as the switch hitting PH. Probably won’t happen, but I don’t see why it can’t!
I would be a horrible GM. I would hire Chris Antonetti to be the world’s first GM-in-waiting and then fire myself.
As a manager, I’d be amusing, relatively cheap, garner a huge amount of press, and wouldn’t hurt the team. I’d vote for me.
I would set a major league record for ejections during the regular season.
I would hope that there would be base-tossing in there, with the occasional hat throw; ejections are nothing without theatrics.
I would hire Chris Antonetti to be the world’s first GM-in-waiting and then fire myself.
Don’t fire yourself, lay yourself off – that way you’d still get unemployment.
I trust your post-game interviews will be a return to the feet-on-the-desk, vodka-bottle-just-out-of-camera days of yore
Oh, you would see crazy theatrics. I would put on amazing tantrums that would be packaged and sold in DVD box sets after every season.
I promise to do post-game interviews with Redhook in hand.
I am willing to reconsider my earlier opinion that Hargrove is actually a Sith Lord plotting to destroy the Mariners from within. He has been way too obvious since Game 1. Remember that bullpen usage debacle? Then they win a few games in a row and….he gives Bloomquist an undeserved start, taking a hot bat out of the lineup and beginning a series of inconsistently-played games that looked nothing like the team that won a bunch of games in its first week. Highly leveraged middle of game relief situation? Bring on Mateo. Putz has got nothing out there? Leave him in. The Sith are far too cunning for this sort of transparent malfeasance. I now believe Hargrove is merely a doofus, possibly suffering an acute cranium-rectal inversion. But definitely not a Sith Lord. That would be giving him way too much credit.
Beltre flailing at breaking balls reminds me so much of Pedro Cerrano
In fairness to Adrian, he’s flailing at all pitches and not just breaking balls.
argh, I think that would be “in fairness to Pedro Cerrano.” I’d prefer if Beltre could at least recognize and crush fastballs down the middle that seem to freeze him in his tracks. Anyone have a bottle of Jobu’s rum to send to Adrian, with maybe some “hats for his bats?”
I promise to do post-game interviews with Redhook in hand.
Push the envelope. Have a Redhook in hand when you go out to make pitching changes, too. On a nice warm summer day, what’s better than a Redhook Blonde at a baseball game?
Also, can you stop the tradition of managers wearing uniforms? They look stupid. Mix it up. hawaiian shirts on casual fridays, bathrobe for those sunday morning games, etc.
BTW, if PLU Tim’s summation of Rohn is correct, I’d be extremely happy to see Rohn in the dugout. Sounds like jsut the guy this team needs.
And why go out to the mound for a pitching change at all? Just turn the fire hose on and aim.
Wait, I have another radical idea… keep WFB on the roster, but use him to pinch run and an an infielder in case of emergency. Use him like a 25th man should be used. His writers will love it, and you’ll get all sorts of complaints that he just needs a shot, etc, etc. Don’t even respond. Just use the player appropriately.
Re #88: Steve T, just to clarify further, the “hanging by a thread” comment is more or less a direct quote from Dave’s remarks at the pizza feed (or so, at least, it has been reported). As such, “The front office doesn’t love the guy” is a sentence which can be understood from context as an example of understatement.
Happy Felix Day, everyone! Here’s to it
Maybe throw in opposite day.. when you point to your right hand, you are actually calling for a lefty. heck, wear the uniform backwards. No one will actually know, because managers, even in August, wear those warm-up jackets all the time.
Isn’t it ¡Felix! Day?
I hesitate to get excited for Feliz day anymore. I think I just had my hopes too high.
It seemed like a lot of people had trouble seeing the game yesterday, and I don’t just mean the early start time. I live on the East Coast these days, and this season, instead of buying MLB Extra Innings, I went for the MLB TV on MLB.com. The image leaves a lot to be desired, but it’s more reliable, and this way I can cue it up at work, minimize the screen and listen to the play by play (heh heh heh).
I guess what I wanna know is: are the games blacked out on MLB TV the way the Spankee games are out here. If you are a displaced M’s fan, like myself, there’s no excuse for not having this.
Dave, I know you like Betencourt alot, b ut how badly will he have to hit over the course of the season to open you up to the idea of a Cabrera-Lopez middle infield going forward?
I understand that Cabrera is a step down defensively, but from everything I’ve read he’s still one heck of a defensive SS in his own right. And in my completely uneducated opinion, he profiles as a better hitter.
Is this a completely worthless discussion? Is YuBet so superior defensively that it doesn’t matter if he never does hit .280 consistently? .260? .240? Or is there something Cabrera has to show at Triple A before it becomes worthwhile?
I understand that Yuny is a huge hit defensively, but I have huge concerns that his bat will at least cancel that out. I’d like a SS who could at least cause pitchers to think about what to throw.
JMO.
#18, that PI piece is interesting for a couple of reasons. First is Hargrove’s atrocious grammar:
‘”We’ve got to find a way to get Adrian going,” Hargrove said. “And giving days off this early in the season is not that helpful. I’m switching he and Joh to take a little pressure off.”‘
Honestly, who talks like that? saying stuff like “between you and I” is bad enough, but “I’m switching he and Joh”?
Second, though, is the shaping drama between Johjima and Meche. Maybe it’s a translation thing, but this (artificial) dialogue is golden:
Reporter: “So why’d you pitch Ortiz down and in, if that’s where he likes to hit the ball?”
Meche: “The ball was right where Joh’s glove was”*
Reporter: “Interesting, so what’s your take on that pitch, Johjima?”
“That wasn’t the best pitch to throw there,” Johjima said, saying he moved his glove to where the pitch was heading. “It was a missed location.”*
Me: “Oooh, spice!”
* Actual quotes
#114, I hear the front office has already come up with a way to get WFB even better press (and to get the annoying naysayers on the blogs to learn just how important he is to the new found team hustle and attitude):
This just in from ESPN . . as a follow-up to the expected success of “Bonds on Bonds,” ESPN is expanding the genre and is proud to introduce “Willie on Willie” (geez, that sounds really bad). You may have noticed the trained monkey following wfb around with a camera phone the last couple of games?
That’s no way to talk about Matt Morrison.
w/r/t Beltre pitch recognition or lack there of, what causes a player to suddenly lose the ability to recognize a pitch. This would not seem to be a skill affected by performance enhancing substances. Did he have this skill in 2004 and then it went away, or is there something different in his approach at the plate. Obviously he struggled last year, but I would have attributed some of it to switching leagues. Even throwing out the monster 2004 season, you’d think he’d be better than what he’s shown us to date. Any insight would be appreciated.
ESPN is expanding the genre and is proud to introduce “Willie on Willieâ€
That’ll be the grittiest TV show ever. It can be a comedy, a drama, a documentary, and a nature program, depending on what the situation calls for; the problem is, it’s gonna be so versatile it may never see a regular timeslot.
All of which will provide a great excuse for its horrible ratings and poor production values.
Right. And suddenly, inexplicably, we will find ourselves watching the 5th Season wondering in amazement as to why it hasn’t been cancelled yet.
but it will draw high ratings among people who only watch three TV shows a year.
I would be amused to see Willie smoking a cigar in his locker-front La-Z-Boy, bullying sportswriters with graceless ease.
Its only 14 games into the season. There are plenty of reasons to be hopeful. Its a much better team to watch and they actually have a chance to win every game that was missing last year. Just need the big boys to get it going.
Its a bit permature to talk about grover being fired. He is not doing a great job but he is not terrible. He can only play the players he has. Bavasi is the guy that puts the team together. He signed Beltre to the big bucks. He is the one fixated on overhyped NL players who fail in the AL. If you are looking for someone to fire because the Mariners house is falling down I would start with the architect not the guy pounding nails.
And the demogrphics of those viewers will be exactly what the network wants.
argh said, April 18th, 2006 at 12:31 pm: Agree on Chaves and the pitching — but the guy who’s got to be going to bed in tears every night so far is Jeff Pentland.
After the Sunday game I was watching a rerun of the preseason FNW human-interest/introduction piece on the team. Jeff Pentland was introduced. He had tobacco spittle all over his 2-day bearded face. Oh, I know appearances aren’t everything, and dip use is practically universal. But it’s hard to believe a slob like that is a good advisor/instructor/teacher.
More seriously, do the Mariners players hit worse as Mariners than they did with prior teams because they suffer from jet lag more than the average MLB player? A recent PI article mentioned that in the course of a season the Mariners accumulate twice as many air miles as most other MLB teams, more than all but Oakland, which has about the same air miles.
Evan said April 18th, 2006 at 12:33 pm: From his view from the dugout, I’m hoting Derek will tell us if those low strikes to Richie are actually as far below his knees as they look on TV. Richie needs to remind the umpires that he’s 6′8″.
Or he could just rub big blobs of dirt on the front of his uniform pants where his kneecaps are… I suppose that’d be misconstrued as blatant criticism by the umpires, though, and Richie’s called strikes might actually increase.
“Is that a question about why I am not playing everyday? Kirby, you have issues. If you aren’t going to ask me about why the f*** I am on the bench today, then this interview is over! Do you have anything else to ask?” “Hickey? You got anything worth my time?”
#122. Hargrove speaks Texan, not English.
e-yup.
I don’t have “front office information”, and frankly I’m completely uninterested in front office information. I don’t like insider baseball. I think insider baseball (defined as caring about and pursuing the ideas and intentions of the actual participants) is what destroys good baseball writers. It destroyed Peter Gammons; he’s like a crack addict with his trade rumors and what GM X is saying behind the scenes now. He’s no longer a reporter but a mouthpiece.
I still stand by my belief that whatever jeopardy Hargrove is in of being fired, using Guardado in an ultra-traditional closer role is not part of the reason why. Neither is giving Everett (or Bloomquist) playing time, or being aggressively stupid (or stupidly aggressive) on the basepaths. I see zero evidence of non-traditional baseball thinking, “going against the book”, from the M’s. The specific faults identified by us folks here are part of that “book”, and thus few teams look at them as reasons to criticize Hargrove.
I’m still hearing people confusing their own perceptions of Hargrove’s abilities with Bavasi’s. I don’t think they’re the same or even similar. I know they aren’t in my case.
He’s in jeopardy because the team has sucked for a long time. They appear to be a bit better now, and that is what is going to make or break him here. They will get better and he will stay, or they will continue to suck and he will go.
Either way it’s not going to make much difference. By far the biggest, best managerial decision Hargrove could make right now would be to make Ichiro and Beltre start hitting. If you think he’s got any impact on that.
Oh, and “I’m switching he and Joh” is the funniest thing I’ve heard all day!
Could Beltre be having some sort of vision problem? Has anyone thought of giving him an eye test? That would explain his inability to pick up pitches.
I assume he got his eyes checked during his annual spring physical– the M’s actually have a pretty rigorous exam, by all reports.
Eye exams cannot identify head cases.
Beltre needs a whole new approach. Right now he’s going every direction at once — hips are trying to pull everything, upper body is trying to hit everything to right, his heads moving all over the place, hands are up and down — basically just terrible mechanics. I could tear him down and rebuild him in a week. Why are major league hitting coaches afraid to change this guy?
Adrian — if you’re reading this (hah!) open your damn stance, move closer to the plate and settle your damn hands down!
And settle your damn feet down! That “happy feet” approach to laying off bad pitches just ain’t workin’!
The happy feet are a direct result of his hips locking into “pull position” while his upper body tries to inside-out everything . . . he has to jump around to stay balanced.
I thought about his vision, too, but he’s still a wizard with the glove. His vision should affect that, too.
When you add up Dave’s grades you get a 2.02 GPA, so maybe he’s being a little harsh on some individuals. Overall I tend to agree we’re doing better this year, but at 6-8 we’re not above a B just yet. So here’s how I’d adjust the grades to scrape up a B average, with reasons I differ from Dave:
C: A
1B: A- just can’t ignore RBIs (or bombs after IBBs)
2B: A
SS: B
3B: D+ he passes on his defense
LF: B+ grading performance, not reputation
CF: B+ good glove, better than a black hole at the plate
RF: C+ earns extra credit on basepaths
DH: C- dollar for dollar, not the worst player
Bench: B
SPs: B no blowouts, a few gems, making 6-man pen possible
Pen: B+
Coach: B- Someone’s got to get credit for new attitude
That adds up to 2.97. A solid B. If everyone aces tonight’s assignment, we might earn that B+.
That’s the worst case of grade inflation I’ve ever seen.
Well, I tried to make it add up to a Dave’s B+ but even I couldn’t go that far.
B+ for the team overall? Looks like the GPA would be closer to 1.85 (C-). What would it take to get an A? .500? That seems unduly pessimistic. I would think that saying “I’d be happy if they came out of this (fill in the blank period) .500″ is more analogous to saying “I’d be happy with a C.”
It’s a fun read though, minor pick aside.
When you add up Dave’s grades you get a 2.02 GPA
Where did you go to school? Where I went, the average was, by definition, a C. The average should fall right at 2.00.
I was rounding.
Plus (if you’ll forgive the double post), we’ve put up a run differential of -1. That’s almost exactly average.
Hey, I’m just having a little fun reconciling the individual grades with Dave’s “overall” B+.
Felix, albeit a terrific disappointment thus far, still has his chance every 5th day. And that day should be recognized and anticipated as such. I say he bounces back tonight and tosses a gem. 7 IP 4 H 1 ER 1 BB 9 K
Can we agree to let Felix suck until July before calling him a disappointment?
That’s a pretty heavy label to put on the guy at this point.
154. He’s been a disappointment by his own standards. Everyone, including himself, know how much better he is than he showed against the A’s and Tribe.
Can we agree to let Felix suck until July before calling him a disappointment?
ABSOLUTELY NOT! He is not performing up to snuff and needs to be sent down to Tacoma so we can bring Scott Atchison, the TRUE future of the franchise, up to take his place. Atchison had *17* strikeouts in 13 IP at Tacoma! Doesn’t that clearly show that he’s the next great starter in baseball?
Felix just wishes he was Scott Atchison. He’s obviously a complete failure. Maybe he should follow Rick Ankiel’s lead and start playing outfield.
/sarcasm
In today’s edition of Freely Available Talent Theater, the Dodgers designated Cody Ross for assignment. He plays RF, so with Ichiro in RF he’s blocked. But though he K’s a lot, he’s got a lot of pop, was lighting things up with the Dodgers before his DFA and should make somebody happy.
Meanwhile, panicking over 2 bleh starts from Felix is dumb. Let the man get over his shin splints and find the plate, and he’ll be fine. Ditto Kenji and blocking pitches wide of the zone: Japanese strike zones are smaller and pitchers in general are less wild because of it, so of course he’s struggled with pitches way left, way right and way low.
So you’re weighting all of the starting pitching combined equal with the DH, and the bench? Seems problematic to me.
At a lot of universities now “average” is 3.0 or 3.5. An “A” is a disappointing grade at Harvard now; they want 5.0’s for grad school or Wall Street.
The good news is, the things that are underperforming what was expected (Ichiro, Beltre, Felix) are much more likely to pick up as the season goes along, and by more, than the pleasant surprises are to fall back.
Through the first inning of play, Randy Johnson and Gustavo Chacin have combined to throw 57 pitches and allow 7 runs on 7 hits. No walks, no Ks, 1 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR.
Who said Felix is a disappointment? All I read in the original post is he’s been terrible but he’s not likely to continue being bad. That’s a long ways from writing him off for the entire season or anything.
158– It would be problematic, except that the average overall comes out to the same as the pitching average. (If your going with Brian’s math, which is better than mine.)
One thing I’ve noticed not really seeing all the games but following somewhat and it seems so far that the old addage “as Ichiro goes… so goes the team…” is holding true. The days he hits, the team scores. And when he completely whiffs so does the team in general.
Ichiro w/ a D and the team overall a B+ just doesn’t seem possible.
According to Jeff Passan, Felix isn’t a dissapointment– he’s being held back:
or both
Speaking of mangagers and the perceived influence they can have, anyone recall the Dick Williams Era here? I do remember Bill James,for one,telling everyone that the M’s would be a force if Williams were the manager.This is the mid-80’s team of Alvin Davis,Harold Reynolds,Dave Valle,Mark Langston.Williams did not make the team a winner is what I remember.Of course MHO of 1987 is that if Mike Moore had pitched well, the M’s would have come close to the AL West title.The Twins won with a low games won number (was is something like 85?) I think the M’s won 78 and Moore was 9-19.
DMZ- regarding Felix’s weight- I would actually be more concerned with some one of his age (under 23-ish) lossing weight without really slimming down much. I don’t know what his weight was listed as previously, so I don’t know how much he lost.
If he lost less than 8-9% of his total body weight it’s much more likely that it’s muscle not fat that he lost. (Remeber that fat weighs less than muscle.) For someone his age, whose metabolism has yet to start naturally slowing down, initial weight loss is typically all muscle loss. I don’t have the authority of a doctor or a trainer, but I spent all of last year studying this type of thing as I went through the process of getting in shape. I asked trainers, body builders, and doctors countless questions on this topic.
Also from my own personal experience, I dropped almost 2 pants sizes and put on 15+ lbs without “packing on the muscle.”
Overall though, Felix’s weight should not change his performance too much. Other guys have gone on to be great pitchers while maintaining a less than optimun weight. If Felix has been heavy his whole life and has always pitched well, don’t mess with success. I would only start to worry if he suddenly makes dramatic changes in his overall body structure.
Where did you go to school? Where I went, the average was, by definition, a C. The average should fall right at 2.00.
If your school’s overall GPA fell at 2.00, then you must’ve had approximately just as many D students as B students. And just about as many 0.5 and lower GPAs as 3.5 and higher GPAs. I call BS.
The median score was probably somewhere around 1.5, but the mean had to be 2.0. C was defined as average. In some classes, 87% was a C. In others, 34% would get you a C (welcome to Engineering).
You guys were too kind to Beltre. I would have given him a Y- . . . maybe even a Z+. The alphabet has 26 letters for a reason.
Rotation and shortstop are likely five-credit courses within the major, while coaching and bench are probably two-credit electives.
The real question is who is taking Beltre’s tests to allow him to maintain his eligibility?