Live Game Notes
I might not be a unique snowflake, and I might not have seen Ray Allen’s record-setting performance, but I will be able to tell my great-grandnieces that I was part of the smallest crowd in Safeco Field history.
The stadium’s emptiness was obvious before you even entered. Free parking was plentiful. There was no waiting for walk-up tickets. You could hear every word of the TV broadcast while entering, because the crowd noise was Marcel Marceau-esque.
All that would change, of course, as the improbably rally got started. But that was three hours after The Lovely Wife and I strolled out to the right field bleachers. In the meantime, I noticed a few things:
* 17,613 was the announced attendance, the lightest yet, and there’s no way 17,000 people showed up. Wide swaths of seats were uninhabited. I’d put it closer to 12,000 if I had to guess.
* The minimal meat in the seats enabled one to hear virtually everything other fans were saying and doing. This ranged from the sophomoric (a guy who looked like the unholy offspring of John Elway and Secretariat repeatedly informing Kevin Mench that he “sucked” and “is tubby”) to the heartwarming (a group of five young women conspiring to shout “ICHIRO!!!” all at once, and then wave at the right fielder. He shot a glance their way, inspiring many blushes and giggles).
* Why not walk Hank Blalock in the seventh inning? It sets up the double play and prevents your right-handed pitcher from facing a left-handed batter that has hurt you already. Blalock’s ensuing two-run single sent about a third of the Mariner faithful scurrying for the exits, not that there were many to spare.
* Nice to see Roberto Petagine get a meaningful at-bat.
* Adrian Beltre still looked utterly lost for two of his four plate appearances. It was, however, nice to see him finally come up with an extra-base hit, and to be fair, he narrowly missed another when he smoked a loud foul the first time up. Note: Scott Spiezio has one more home run than Beltre does, Bronson Arroyo two more.
* Not that you need me to tell you this, but Kenji Johjima is for real, and is well on his way to becoming a fan favorite. He can’t run, so he will ground into some double plays, but he hits the ball hard an awful lot.
* Jamie Moyer looks like he is throwing wads of tissue paper. Not wet wads of tissue paper: bone-dry wads of tissue paper.
So yes, I passed up a chance to see Felix pitch, instead watching a junkballer more than twice his age — and got to see a win powered by a Carl Everett walk-off home run. I guess Joaquin Andujar was right. The most important word in English is “youneverknow.”
Comments
USSM uses and recommends
Good, bad or ugly.. A win is a win!
Grover’s failure to walk dangerous hitters intentionally is a major failing – Dave went nuts in a game thread the other day for the same reason.
How about our seeming inability to get those dangerous hitters out when it counts? Is it just me, or does it seems like Grover burns all of our best bullpen parts one night, and then the next night all we have is Woods and Mateo left?
I’d much rather err on the side of not walking people intentionally than go back to the bad old days of Bill Plummer, I believe it was, who seemed to resort to intentional walks any time there was a runner in scoring position and first base open.
On a side note: Bravo to Ray Allen! Great year for him, even though the team around him wasn’t very good for most of the year..
Hey man, not to nitpick but there are no actual “bleachers” in right field. They are great seats out there though.
Jeff wrote:
Only if your great grandnieces are already living, and you visit them very soon.
I drove by the stadium yesterday on my way to softball practice during the second and was stunned at how empty it was.
There is a softball field down by Safeco?
I’m going to tell you why the stadium is empty from the voice of a casual Mariners fan, my wife. Here is her quote from opening day: “It’s hard to cheer for this team like I did a few years back because I don’t know who any of the players are anymore.” That’s a big problem, Ichiro, Sexson, and Moyer aside the casual fan doesn’t know these players at all. They probably know about Felix by now, all they know is that there’s no Boonie, no Edgar, no Olerud, no Cameron to cheer for. Until they start winning consistently into the summer when fans start to figure out who these guys are, then the small crowds will continue throughout the year. I already got tickets to the Yankees series and was completely shocked by how close they are since I was always in the 300 level for those series in years past (even last year).
I was there also! Heck of a finish.
Man, Francisco Cordero looked god-awful! His only out was recorded on a high (really high) fly ball to the warning track.
Nice to see we had 19 hits but it’s bad that we needed every one of them to come out on top. We failed in several key moments.
Good to win a game with the bad half of our relievers throwing!
After the crowd booed Beltre, he got a hit in his next at bat. Perhaps we should get on his case more.
Was Lopez just being lazy and fielding the ball to his side (on his error)? I was on 3rd base side so I had a bad angle.
Showalter’s bullpen stall tactics are extremely annoying.
Also, way to go Ichiro… is he going to hit some unpresidented .750 the rest of the month now? *fingers crossed*
On TV it looked like Lopez couldn’t decide if he should back up and field the ball deep on the grass, or if he should charge more, and catch it on the dirt.
I think he was caught in-between hops.. He didn’t take a very good angle to the ball in my (humble) opinion.
#10
What we really need is for some of our young, unknown players to do some things like that walk-off homer last night. Big plays make you popular, just like Cameron’s first game, when he robbed a home run. Instant fan favorite (just add water!)
What about Sexson getting the Edgar treatment last night? Sexson drives in the tying run, then gets taken out of the game for a pinch runner with one out in the ninth. I don’t know how many times that happened with Edgar, and then the Mariners hit into a double play or the pinch runner got picked off at first base. The Mariners then went into extra innings without one of their biggest bats in the lineup.
I kept thinking that was going to happen last night, especially when Everett was up. Luckily, Everett came through and won the game, but I still wonder who Hargrove would have put at first base if the game went into extra innings? Did they really need to take out Sexson? I don’t think so.
Speaking of Showalter and his bullpen…
Did anyone catch the Showalter/Matt Morris interaction in the postgame interviews? Morris asked some stupid question about using a lot of relievers and Showalter was instantly annoyed and shot down the question. It was pretty funny.
Which reminds me, Brad Adams is the Kenji Johjima upgrade of M’s broadcasts.
#14
Ibanez would have moved from left field to first, and Lawton would have went and played left field.
#15
I agree completely! Brad Adams is much, much better!
#16 And Sexson would have been stuck on the bench when it came time for him to bat with runners on base. Now I know Lawton is a better hitter than say Charles Gipson, but I’d rather have Sexson up there.
See my point? I don’t understand why you take Sesxon out for a pinch runner at first base when the next hitter could hit into a double play. Maybe if Sexson was on second base, you think about taking him out. Lawton may be faster than Sexson, but I’d rather have Richie’s bat in extra innings.
#3 – if the starters could last more than 6 innings the bullpen might be a little fresher. I know it’s still early in the season, but if we have to get 3 innings each night from the pen we might need to put 14 guys out there.
You think an average of one inning every two games is too much work for those guys?
I don’t understand why you take Sesxon out for a pinch runner at first base when the next hitter could hit into a double play
Um, because a faster runner might beat a force at second or hurry a throw that Richie might not?
Indoor batting cages south of the park. They’re pretty nice.
What we really need is for some of our young, unknown players to do some things like that walk-off homer last night. Big plays make you popular, just like Cameron’s first game, when he robbed a home run. Instant fan favorite (just add water!)
That double by Lopez in the bottom of the 9th was as key to the walk off win as the C-Rex HR. If people aren’t noticing the contributions of the young players, they just aren’t paying attention.
You might want to go again tonight if you want to keep that “smallest crowd” record going. And there are some mid-week games against Tampa Bay in May that look promising — that 4:35 businessman’s special on Wednesday the 10th might go below 10,000 actual butts in seats at this rate.
Dang, I see plivengood already beat me to my joke, and told it better besides.
I think pinch-running for Sexson was a great decision. With the team’s best hitter coming up, here’s the good things that are far more likely:
–win on a double
–steal second and win on a single
–get to third and win on a sac fly
Besides, you avoid the injury risk for Sexson to attempt the above. If the batting order spot even comes around, Lawton can contribute to a single run nearly as well as Sexson, and if you need Sexy’s big-inning capability the game probably is lost anywey. As long as there’s a defensive option, in this situation I think you run for him every time.
#21 – Um, because a faster runner might beat a force at second or hurry a throw that Richie might not?
Um, tell me the last time Lawton beat out a force at second base? If K-Jo (who had already grounded into double play) or Everett hit a ground ball, truse me, that innings over.
And the Mariners are in trouble. If they get it back to the top of the order, the Rangers walk Ibanez to get to Lawton. Just as teams of the past walked Boone, A-Rod and Griffey to get to the guy who pinch ran for Edgar in that same situation.
I just want to know why Mariner managers continue to do this? I don’t know how many times they have been burned by it. Luckily, last night was not one of those times.
I don’t think the average fan notices the double by Lopez. On the news this morning, the only thing they showed was Carl’s home run.
Just as an example, when I walked in the door at work this morning, the first thing my assistant said to me was “I hear Carl hit a walk-off home run last night!” He didn’t see the game at all, and didn’t know what led up to the walk-off. He just saw the news, and heard a sound bite on the radio (although he has every intimate detail of who the Seahawks might draft in the 3rd round, and why!)..
I wish the average fan noticed the important things, but in this age of SportsCenter, it’s all about the highlight moment.
you know, there was a time when people didn’t know who the old Mariners were until they hung around for a decade or so and became the Old Mariners…
Very good point msb!
speaking of which, they were talking to Pauly Sorrento the other day on KJR… how he and his accent haven’t ended up doing color for the M’s I don’t know…
This all reminds me of when a friend of mine suggested I was stupid for wanting to go see a Mariner game a week ago… I asked him “Why”? and he responded “Because the idiots got rid of all their GOOD players!”, I promptly responded with a “Like who?” and he added “Olerud, Boone, Wilson, Edgar, Buhner!” (sigh) I wish they were still good players, but this is Baseball, the life of baseball, things change, players get old, loose their talents… And I’m damn excited to wait for Lopez, Yu-Bet, Felix, and our other young guns step up and be the “GOOD players” ESPN highlights or not.
I did not mind having Lawton pinch-run for Richie. Lawton can go from first to third, first to home, or second to home more easily than Richie. And even if Lawton comes up to bat, he ain’t a Bloomquist. I actually enjoyed seeing Hargrove play and use his bench.
Re: #31
Sorrento is a local like Blowers… perhaps he needs the extra cash, didn’t his house burn down?
Just as teams of the past walked Boone, A-Rod and Griffey to get to the guy who pinch ran for Edgar in that same situation.
If someone’s going to walk the bases loaded and create a run expectancy of >1 to face Edgar’s replacement in the lineup, more power to them. The simple fact is extra runners on base can easily outweigh the difference between sucktastic hitter and good hitter in terms of what you get. Bill James did a thousand season simulation study where he compared walking Babe Ruth every time he was at the plate, on a team of craptastic hitters and one where you pitched to him “normally” (let him get his hits)…and the team scored more runs when Babe Ruth was walked every time.
I also have a VERY hard time believing your scenario happened anywhere near the frequency you assserted- what, there are maybe 5-10 extra games that go extra innings in any particular year? How many of those have Edgar on base and PR for as the winning run, the M’s fail to score, and then have his lineup spot come up again (meaning a combination of 8 more baserunners/outs), and the M’s lose? I would bet that I could count the number of times that happened on ONE hand during Edgar’s career, and still have fingers left.
#26 –win on a double
There is no way Lawton is scoring from first base unless he is running. I even doubt it then because most of K-Jo’s hits that have stayed in the park have been hit too hard.
–steal second and win on a single
Do you really classify Lawton as a stolen base threat? Granted, he does run faster than Sexson, but I think Hargrove is even smart enough to let K-Jo, Everett and Beltre swing the bats before running out of the inning.
I hate to harp on the past again, but there were plenty of times when Charles Gipson was thrown out at second base trying to steal after he came in the pinch run for Edgar. Times even when Gipson was picked off at first base by the pitcher. It boggles my mind when that happens. I mean, that could just as easily happen to Sexson.
–get to third and win on a sac fly
This is probably the best senario to have Lawton running instead of Sexson. But you have to get Lawton to third base, and he couldn’t even do that because K-Jo hit that one up the middle too hard. If you’re going to play station-to-station ball, as the Mariners ended up doing, then it was kind of a wasted move to take Sexson out.
-As long as there’s a defensive option, in this situation I think you run for him every time.
Then you don’t watch very many Mariners games. I’d rather have Sexson’s bat in the extra innings than Lawton’s. I just don’t see Lawton as the type of player who is going to win you a game with speed when he’s brought in to run for one of your best hitters at first base.
Amen to that! I still have friends asking me “what ever happened to Bob Wolcott?” or “Why’d we get rid of Boone?”
I try to tell them about the young exciting guys we have, and they just lose interest, because they don’t recognize the names..
Off topic, but Baseball America has their new prospect hot-sheet out:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/hotsheet/print261063.html
Emerald, you should ask your friend if he still follows Seahawks games since they got rid of all the GOOD players like Steve Largent. Personally I’ve refused to pay any attention to the Sonics since they got rid of Jack Sikma….
Which brings up a point — the M’s advertising kind of sucks in this regard. They got burned last year because they tried to do ads with “the new guys” and a bunch of them were gone by mid-season making the ads useless. So other than the Felix ad (which, together with the Sexson and Ichiro ads, seems to be all they run) there’s no chance to hook the casual fan who isn’t already watching the games (other than the old-fashioned way of putting together an exciting winning season, of course). But they certainly could do some new ads very cheaply using nothing but on-field highlights. Put together some of Betty’s amazing moves, a few double-plays with Lopez, a diving catch or two from Reed, one of Beltre’s stops on the 3rd base-line, cut them together with fast jumps, mix in some crowd noise and soundbites from the announcers with their names — you could easily get people interested and get their names out there.
But that’s not the kind of advertising the M’s do. I’m not sure why they think that “entertainment-oriented” advertising that emphasizes “the family experience” rather than the actual sport has to be mutally exclusive with exciting on-field action. They could run both kinds of ads.
You know, I was wondering how many people were going to claim that they were at the game where Carl hit the walk-off homer. And I wondered how many of them actually stayed through the 9th inning to see it.
#35-I also have a VERY hard time believing your scenario happened anywhere near the frequency you assserted- what, there are maybe 5-10 extra games that go extra innings in any particular year? How many of those have Edgar on base and PR for as the winning run, the M’s fail to score, and then have his lineup spot come up again (meaning a combination of 8 more baserunners/outs), and the M’s lose? I would bet that I could count the number of times that happened on ONE hand during Edgar’s career, and still have fingers left.
Ah, lots of times. And why would the Mariners bring in a pinch runner to run after Edgar. That’s even more stupid then taking Edgar out of a pinch runner. I know you take Edgar and Richie out becasue they have no speed, and you want to win the game with a base hit. But Lawton’s obviously not stealing a base in that situation to get into scoring position, so why take Richie out? He could have gotten to second on that hit by K-Jo and he could have scored on the homer by Everett.
It was a wasted move to take Richie out. And it would have been a stupid move if K-Jo or Everett grouned into a double play to end the inning. It doesn’t matter if the game ends before, you want to go into extra innings knowing that you have Richie’s bat.
Put together some of Betty’s amazing moves, a few double-plays with Lopez, a diving catch or two from Reed, one of Beltre’s stops on the 3rd base-line, cut them together with fast jumps, mix in some crowd noise and soundbites from the announcers with their names — you could easily get people interested and get their names out there.
and you know they can do it, as you see exactly that kind of reel up on the screen in Safeco….
I hate to harp on the past again, but there were plenty of times when Charles Gipson was thrown out at second base trying to steal after he came in the pinch run for Edgar. Times even when Gipson was picked off at first base by the pitcher.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/gipsoch01.shtml
Gipson’s career CS’s as a Mariner: 9. Again, I think you are inflating things a bit.
Regarding the attendance. At least it is easy to get batting practice balls when noone shows up. Don’t have to fight anybody for them. Reminds me of the Kingdome. Apparently the Mariners ended up winning last night, I fell asleep during the game. Go M’s.
#42-Gipson’s career CS’s as a Mariner: 9. Again, I think you are inflating things a bit.
That’s a lot of CS to me, considering he was usually brought in as a pinch runner or a defensive replacement. When Gipson was trying to steal, he was trying to win the game for the Mariners in the ninth inning or in extra innings.
That’s nine times that he got himself out when he was in there running for guys like Edgar, Boone and Olerud. Also keep in mind that Gipson only stole 12 bases for the Mariners. 12 steals, caught 9 times. Hmm, that doesn’t seem like good odds to me.
So again, if the Mariners couldn’t succeed when bringing in a speedster like Gipson, how do they expect Lawton to be any better of a threat on the basepaths? Yes, Lawton could score from second base on hit by Everett and Sexson probably couldn’t. But Everett could have just as easily hit into a double play, and then one your best bats is stuck on the bench when you wouls most likely need him later.
In extra innings, you know Mariners want to get back to the top of the order. It’s not the same when you have Lawton batting clean up instead of Sexson. It’s a simple question? Would you rather have Lawton up there with a chance to win the game with one swing of the bat, or would you rather have Sexson? If you say Lawton, you’re out of your mind!
There is no way Lawton is scoring from first base unless he is running. I even doubt it then because most of K-Jo’s hits that have stayed in the park have been hit too hard.
Have you ever actually watched a baseball game?
Hey, lay off Gipson!
He always reminded me of me! And why I play rec league softball, instead of playing in the major leagues! LOL!
I was at the game last Tuesday and showed up pretty early for batting practice. While not empty, it was pretty sparse. Moyer mentioned they are still trying to get rid of their Practice balls and threw a few into the stands, almost sure everyone that showed up in RF got a ball lol.
I’m still stuck on the Blalock AB in the seventh. Not only did they not walk him, but they brought the infield in. Am I nuts to think that this was completely assinine when you have two runners in scoring position? If the run from third is critical — would tie the game in the ninth or win it — the risk is worth it. But with a runner on second, AND when the extra run represented by the runner on third is not that meaningful, the increased likelihood of a two-run single is just not worth it. Loopy move!
#45-There is no way Lawton is scoring from first base unless he is running. I even doubt it then because most of K-Jo’s hits that have stayed in the park have been hit too hard.
Have you ever actually watched a baseball game?
I’ve watched Mariner games long enough to know that you don’t take one of your best hitters out of the lineup for speed. The Mariners win games with there bats. They also have a tendency to kill their rallies by grounding into double plays or because of agressive baserunning (a problem that has been discussed about this team since the start of the season).
If you think Lawton is going to score from first on a hit by K-Jo, then maybe you need to watch more baseball. Have you seen the way the ball jumps off K-Jo’s bat? It’s either a home run or a line drive. It’s hit too hard for Lawton to try and score from first base.
#46-Hey, lay off Gipson!
I’ve got nothing against Gipson. Or Rich Amaral for that fact. They were great role players for the Mariners.
I’m just trying to ask why Mariner managers continue to replace their best hitters who run slow for speed in must win situations. It’s like telling Sexson “thanks for tying the game for us, we don’t need you any more.” It sucks!
If only they would tell Everett “thanks for winning the game for us, we don’t need you any more.”
A man can dream.
#50 — Thanks for defending Gipson. In fact, I have stopped attending M’s games since they have gotten rid of good players like Gipson and Amaral. I also soured on the SuperSonics after the departure of Slick Watts.
#51-If only they would tell Everett “thanks for winning the game for us, we don’t need you any more.â€
Ha, ha, ha. That was great!
#50- Actually I agree with you completely. As soon as they put Lawton in last night my first thought was “Crap! What if we go to extra innings?”
Maybe once (if) Sexson gets on second, you pinch run then, to try to increase the chances of scoring on a single. But the odds of anybody scoring from first are slim enough that I would leave our biggest power threat in the lineup at that point.
I’ve always been a sucker for the role players on this team. I guess I like to root for the underdog. I remember wondering why Ibanez didn’t play more in his first stint with the M’s, and then being really mad when he played so well in KC…
Getting rid of Charles Gipson was the first big mistake of the Mariner’s decline.
Of course I mainly say that because I have a crush on him like Derek has on Johjima.
Scary opinion about Beltre at the top of this page:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/john_donovan/04/20/hot.cold/1.html
They also have a tendency to kill their rallies by grounding into double plays or because of agressive baserunning (a problem that has been discussed about this team since the start of the season).
They have run into a few outs on the bases, but they are actually one of the BEST teams in baseball at avoiding the DP so far, and they’ve gone 17 for 20 on stolen bases…so I’m thinking you are kind of wrong that they suck at baserunning.
There are considerably more questionable decisions made by Hargrove than when he subs in a pinch-runner. Take, for instance the non-platooning of Reed with Bloomquist…
So how many times does he sit Reed against lefties, before he finally admits it’s a platoon?
I personally think Reed is too young, and it’s too early in his career to call him a platoon player.
Although I sure thought he should have made that catch on the line drive right at him last night. Looked like he got a bad jump on the ball.
#54-Actually I agree with you completely. As soon as they put Lawton in last night my first thought was “Crap! What if we go to extra innings?â€
Maybe once (if) Sexson gets on second, you pinch run then, to try to increase the chances of scoring on a single. But the odds of anybody scoring from first are slim enough that I would leave our biggest power threat in the lineup at that point.
Finally, a supporter. Woohoo!
I must have picked the wrong day to bring this topic up. I’ll wait until a team takes the lead on the Mariners in extra innings. They get two outs, and Ichiro and Lopez rally to get on base. The team decides to walk Ibanez to load the bases.
Two outs, sacks full and Matt Lawton comes to the plate. You remember, Hargove brought him in to pinch run for Richie Sexson after he drove in the tying run in the ninth.
STRIKE
You know, you bring Lawton in for speed on the basepaths, and yet you can’t get Lawton home because Everett grounded into that double play.
STRIKE
Oh, and Lawton’s down 0-2. With the Mariners down by a run here, you wish Sexson was still in the lineup. Look at Richie perched in the dugout. You know he wants to be out there.
STRIKE THREE
Oh no, Lawton strikes out with the bases loaded. Oh no. Ball game over. My oh my, what a stupid mistake!
#50– just a note, it isn’t just Mariner managers who pinch run for their slower runners in the 9th.
#57– yah, but it is John Donovan.
Richie is a better hitter than Lawton, but he is still probably more likely to K than Lawton. Lawton would pop up a 3-2 pitch.
Yeah, because Sexson has never struck out in a big spot this year.
#58-They have run into a few outs on the bases, but they are actually one of the BEST teams in baseball at avoiding the DP so far, and they’ve gone 17 for 20 on stolen bases…so I’m thinking you are kind of wrong that they suck at baserunning.
I brought up the double play because K-Jo had grouded into one in his pervious at-bat. And come on, you had to be thinking Everett was going to ground into a double play. When he hit it out, I was so shocked. I didn’t jump up and down, I just said “we’ll take that.” Come on, Carl got lucky.
And, I never said the Mariners suck at baserunning, but if you think it’s smart for Hargrove to take Sexson out for a guy who has only stolen one base in each of the last two years, by all means keep patting yourself on the back.
Ichiro! quote of the day, via Larry Stone:
Texas Rangers reliever Akinori Otsuka just shook his head and smiled when asked about the stumbling start of Ichiro, his teammate last month on Japan’s World Baseball Classic championship team. “Doesn’t matter,” Otsuka said presciently, in English, before Wednesday’s game. “He will get better. He will finish the season at .300-something. Ichiro is a genius.”
#63-Yeah, because Sexson has never struck out in a big spot this year.
My word, you people are so predicatable in your responses. I could of had Lawton groundout or pop out and you would of said Richie has done the same thing before. Of course he has! But I’d rather have Richie up there with the game on the line, and NOT LAWTON.
If Richie strikeouts, grounds out, pops out, I can say “damn, they got lucky,” “we’ll get them tomorrow,” or “you suck Richie, but at least you tried.” If it’s Lawton, all I’m saying is “you suck Hargrove!”
What are you guys going to do next? Make fun of the way I spelled predictable?
“you people” as a broad generalization is not cool. If you want to respond to a point, that’s fine, but group-and-dismiss is not a legit debate tactic, at least not here.
Thanks.
Baseball is a game of probabilities. The best hitters make an out close to 70% of the time. You said it yourself, West Coast King: “Carl got lucky.” As every good hitter does when he hits a home run (and I’m not saying Everett is a good hitter).
What a manager is supposed to do is maximize the chances of something good happening for his team. Yes, the chance of Lawton’s speed resulting in a run that Sexson wouldn’t have scored is small. So is the chance of the game going extra innings and Sexson coming up again. And that chance is mitigated by the fact that Lawton is not a bad hitter in the mold of Gipson.
You don’t know, and I don’t know, precisely what those percentages are. My gut tells me that pinch running is the better percentage move. Your gut tells you otherwise. Fine. I might be wrong, and you might be wrong. Neither one of us has any data to base that decision on. Can we just leave it at that?
68-“you people†as a broad generalization is not cool. If you want to respond to a point, that’s fine, but group-and-dismiss is not a legit debate tactic, at least not here.
Thanks for putting me in my place DMZ. I know that was out of line. I apologize.
#69-You don’t know, and I don’t know, precisely what those percentages are. My gut tells me that pinch running is the better percentage move. Your gut tells you otherwise. Fine. I might be wrong, and you might be wrong. Neither one of us has any data to base that decision on. Can we just leave it at that?
I can live with that.
Traditional wisdom says that the home team should play for a tie, while the visitors should play for a win. Since the game was already tied, traditional wisdom should have left Richie in the game.
Traditional wisdom is often less than wise, however, so I think Grover made a good call. The M’s aren’t the best team with the bat, so I don’t want to gamble on being able to reach base again in extra innnings.
Regardless of what each person thinks of the decision to pinch run for Sexson, we came away with the win, and that’s really all that matters to me!
#72-Traditional wisdom says that the home team should play for a tie, while the visitors should play for a win. Since the game was already tied, traditional wisdom should have left Richie in the game.
Traditional wisdom is often less than wise, however, so I think Grover made a good call. The M’s aren’t the best team with the bat, so I don’t want to gamble on being able to reach base again in extra innnings.
I guess I believe in traditional wisdom. Richie got you the tie, leave him in there in case you need him for the win. I know that’s not what Hargrove and the Mariners wanted. They wanted, and all of us wanted, to win the game right then. And they did. That’s what’s most important.
other news…. Chaves & Slaton feel free to call pitchers meetings when needed…
Lawton stole 18 bases last year, so he is legitimate threat to steal a base, take an extra base, or break up a double play. Lawton’s career OBP is 368, which (excluding hitters with less than 100 career ABs) is second-highest on the team (Ichiro is 376, Sexson is 352). Under the walk-the-bases scenario, Lawton is arguably the better option. While certainly open to disagreement, the decision to pinch run Lawton was reasonable.
That was a fun debate. Thanks!
Anybody else bummed that Petagine grounded out last night?
I don’t mind Lawton pinch running for Sexson at all last night. You gotta go for the win in that situation, and with only 1 down, you want a guy who can go from first to third or potentially score on a gapper. Lawton is a good enough hitter to hold his own should the game remain tied.
Sexson is disasterously slow, station to station runner. It was the right thing to do.
I expected Petagine to crush the ball. Now that his BA has fallen below .500, Grover will completely give up on him.
66-67: No, instead I’ll make fun of you for using “would of” and “could of” instead of “would have” and “could have.”
I need some help here. When was the last walk-off home run hit by the M’s? (home game and road game if anybody has it, please?)
Technically, a walk-off HR has to occur at a home game. That being said, I don’t have a clue.
I was expecting much more out of Petagine’s at-bat, especially since he may have seen that pitcher before in Japan.
No knock on Petagine, I just get excited when he comes to the plate.
#83- I’m a moron… Of course it has to be a home game! I should probably focus more on my M’s converstation, and less on work! (or is that the other way around?)
That should be “conversation” not “converstation”! Geez I suck today!
Emerald (#32) wrote:
Generally speaking, I try not to make fun of others’ grammar and spelling (so excuse me here for doing just that), but saying “loose” when you mean “lose” is one of my pet peeves. I do have to say, though, that the mental image of someone like Kaz or Boonie “loosing his talents” — perhaps on some “suitcase” or poor beverage cart girl — did give me a chuckle.
Looking at my last three or four postings, I’m not going to comment on anybody’s grammar or spelling! Although your Boonie and Kaz imagery cracked me up!
83 and 85: I thought a walkoff home run was counted as a HR where it’s so far over the fence that there’s no doubt, the outfielder declines to even try fielding it. Now if you meant ‘game winning walk-off HR’ that I would say can only occur at home.
I always thought a “walk-off” home-run meant once you hit it, you can “walk-off” the field, because the game is over… I suppose it’s all semantics.
Anyway, I was wondering when the last time was that a Mariner hit a game winner like that.
“Walkoff” HR means after it’s hit everyone walks off the field because the game’s over. It has nothing to do with the length of the HR. By definition, therefore, all “walkoff” HR’s are game winning HR’s.
Walk off the field, pre-54 outs in a 9 inning affair, I thought it was. Home team only. Of course, a home team, could too, hit a walk off HR in extra innings.
I can’t even imagine how it must feel to hit a game winning home run.. That has to rank pretty high on the “feel good” scale!
Lawton stole 18 bases last year, so he is legitimate threat to steal a base…
And was caught 9 times for a net stolen base total of minus 9. Rule of thumb: if the runner can’t get there 66% of the time, he should just wait for the batter to hit the ball.
87 – Loosing his talents… hehe
18 – 9 = -9 ?
Really?
The last walkoff HR I remember was Mike Cameron’s grand slam off Danys Baez on April 22nd, 2003. That was the last game Derek, Jason, and I attended together.
#96: Net_Stolen_Bases = Stolen_bases – (2 * Caught_Stealing).
Which should mean a net stolen base count of 0, sorry. Still not worth trying to steal if you believe in the 66% break even point.
Wow! Almost 3 years ago, to the day. Thank you Dave!
Reading through the article in Dave’s link, it’s amazing how different the attitude about the team was then. Not to mention the attendance figures listed at the end of the article.
I remember that, Dave. That ball was absolutely smoked, and that was about as much fun as I’ve had at a Mariners game since I saw Jimmy Presley do the same thing (I think twice in the same season) in the mid-80’s — with the glaring exception of Edgar’s home run to center against the Yanks in ‘95; not sure anything can beat that.
93 – Also has to do a quite a bit of boosting for the “ego” scale.
is he going to hit some unpresidented .750 the rest of the month now?
Given Ichiro’s streaky hitting, would that even be unprecedented?
I bet it does boost the ego! I can’t imagine having to deal with some of my softball teammates if they hit one!
There’s an interesting excerpt from Dave’s linked article relating to the discussion of running for Sexson:
First-year Mariners manager Bob Melvin thought about using a pinch-runner for Martinez after he walked in the seventh.
“I’m sure glad I didn’t now,” Melvin said.
Back to #32 and #29 regarding attendance and bonding to players.
Yeah, people bonded to Edgar et.al way back when, when the Ms weren’t winning and were playing in the awful kingdome. And there were teeny tiny little crowds. The kinds of crowds you have at a AAA game. And so, even though you were in a big stadium, you still had a semi-intimate experience with the players on the field.
That’s gone with Safeco. (Or, maybe coming back this season!). Safeco has been filled for the past several years with lots of people who wanted to come out and see the new ballpark (that’s over now), or impress their clients with the new ballpark (probably has run its course as well, as Qwest field is the newest ballpark in town and actually housed a successful team recently). The Ms didn’t particularly treat their season ticket holders well in the transition from the Kingdome to Safeco (no more special entrance, no more essentially guaranteed promo items, lots of them got bumped from location due to charter and diamond club seating, and the prices have been rising). Traffic has also gotten increasingly worse, which matters a great deal to a team like the Ms whose constituency (season ticket base) actually comes from a lot of zip codes outside of King County.
So maybe the folks that are left, coming to the games now, will bond and bond quickly with the young players, like my people bond with the young players in AAA. But for the rest of those folks that the Ms have lost over the years, I just think it’s gonna take more than a good ad campaign to get those butts back in the seats on a regular basis.
#85 You’re not a moron! You were just thinking of the case where a home run on the road is struck so well that it takes out the lighting aparatus at the stadium, ending the game. Hey, it could happen.
As if to illustrate my point, I just picked up my mail from the living room floor. And, I have a postcard from the Mariners telling me how much they miss me and want me back. They’ve set aside a pair of complimentary tickets for me at the upcoming CWS, CLE, or TAM series.
AND, I could even buy season tickets again and if I do so before May 9, I don’t even lose my previous season ticket priority (from my 8 years of season ticket holding).
Go figure.
Thanks shortbus! I’ll take that excuse and run with it! All of you enjoy the rest of your conversations, I’m off to play ball myself.
Go M’s!!
#96: Net_Stolen_Bases = Stolen_bases – (2 * Caught_Stealing).
Which should mean a net stolen base count of 0, sorry. Still not worth trying to steal if you believe in the 66% break even point.
????
That IS at the 66% break even point. And given the small sample size, it’s worth it to a) think about stealing and b) get speed on the basepaths.
#96
Dave, didn’t Boone have an extra innings walk off HR in early 2004? Or was it an away game and just the game winning HR?
It’s not a small sample size; it’s a whole season’s worth. Just because the numbers are small doesn’t mean the sample is.
And I think the break-even point is probably closer to 75%. The incremental value of the stolen base is extremely small, while the cost of getting caught is massive. Outs are the most precious thing you have. Only a small number of players have ever made a significant positive contribution by base stealing. Even when Lawton was 26-for-30 in 1999, the amount of offense that added was pretty trivial.
Ibanez hit one on April 20, 2004 (in the 9th, not extra innings) against the A’s. I can’t find any walk-off homers in extra innings by Boone or anyone else in the first half of 2004, though Scott Spezio had a 16th-inning walk-off groundout on May 4 against the Twins.
Hang on. It wasn’t “early” in 204, but on July 19, 2004 Boonie hit a walk-off grand slam in the 11th off of Curt Leskanic. Scoring ahead of him were Miguel Olivo, Dave Hansen, and Randy Winn.
2004, not “204″, duh.
Thanks for the notes on the game, Jeff. Highly entertaining!
I called a friend at the game who has been going to M’s games since 1991. I swear, it didn’t sound like he was at a game. He made the comment that the low noise and low attendance made it have an early 90’s vibe. Perhaps Mariner management has unwittingly launched a new retro feel to the games.
Two nights later Bucky Jacobsen hit a walk-off in the 10th against the A’s. Then, on August 28, Randy Winn hit one in the 12th against KC.
Someone else can paw through last year’s.
I found the one that I was thinking of, it was on April 12, 2004 against the A’s. It wasn’t a walk off, but it was extra innings and it won the game.
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.aspc=sportsnetwork&page=mlb/news/aan3157119.htm
I hope the link works *crosses fingers*
Just wanted to add one quick thing to the “pinch-running-Gibson-for-Edgar Great Debate” about those 9 CS in a Mariner uniform. After eponymous coward brought how relatively rare they were, I decided to check the box scores. Turns out, the situation described by the original poster was vastly exaggerated; borderline hyperbole.
In fact, Gibson pinch-ran for Edgar and was caught stealing a grand total of one time in his brief tenure with the club. Once. And they won that game two batters later.
But I do agree, they (hitters of Richie’s ilk) shouldn’t be pinch-run for unless the potential need heavily outweighs the loss; subjectively of course, heh.
#109: Break even = “no net gain.” So I say, stand there and don’t risk giving away the out.
Anyway, the situation last night reminded me of two different games in recent Division Series games.
In game 3 of the 2004 ALDS, Red Sox vs Angels, David Ortiz walked with two out in the 8th inning with the score tied. ESPN analyst Rick Sutcliffe was all over Terry Francona for not running for Ortiz in this situation. “You’ve got your closer in the game! You’ve got to make something happen here!†The Angels got the last out and the game went into extra innings.
Ortiz came up to bat in the 10th inning and won the game on a HR on the first pitch he saw from our old friend Jarrod Washburn.
Contrast that with game 4 of last year’s NLDS between the Braves and the Astros. It went 18 innings because the Astros’ manager, Phil Garner, took one of his best hitters, Lance Berkman, out of the lineup for a pinch runner with 2 out in the 10th.
Link is broke. Try this:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=240411111
It was the 11th, not the 12th.
Yeah, sorry, I’m stupid. Forgot that the article wouldn’t have been written until the next day. Thanks!
If anyone is still reading this,…
Managers seem to manage in the ninth like there’s no next inning. Hence, the PR for Richie.
Earlier this month, there was abn instance when I was sure that Hargrove should have used a PR but didn’t.
It went something like this: Petagine PH for Betencourt in the 8th and reached first, then ws on second with two outs and the M’s down by a few runs. Bloomquist HAD to come in to play SS the next half-inning, and there was no way Willie was going to PH for the top part of the order. Willie would have had a much better chance of scoring from 2nd on a single than Roberto, and he was detined to come in (and did) in that same slot in the batting order.
If Ichiro hits .750 for a month, he can definitely be President.