Game 30, Mariners at White Sox
Dave · May 4, 2006 at 10:54 am · Filed Under Mariners
Happy Felix Day.
Lawton playing center field again. Good thing Felix is all ground balls, all the time.
Contreras is due for a shallacking. His ERA doesn’t come close to matching his performance so far.
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Feliz Felix.
I’ve got the White Sox feed on Extra Innings. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
I’ve got the White Sox feed on Extra Innings.
Amnesty International recently charged the US with pumping Hawk Harrelson broadcasts into Gitmo. I feel sorry for the terrorists now.
2: There is no Mariners feed today, which sucks, because EI had no choice but to make you listen to Hawk and DJ.
You know, it’d be nice to give Felix a lead to work with. Has he had one all year? (I know he won last time out, but they scored all the runs after he came out.)
I’m really gonna get sick and tired of hearing “He gone.”
So, let me get this straight: the game is not being broadcast by the Mariners, is in Chicago, I live in Salem, OR, and I’m still blacked out by MLB.TV? That’s really lame.
90, 91, 91, 92. It looks like Bad Felix is in the house.
Wait! This isn’t supposed to be Bad Felix. Rene Rivera, Major League Catcher, means there’s no Bad Felix! That’s what they said on ESPN, and they’re always right!
Lovely … happy ‘felix’ day everybody.
Bad Felix
Uh oh.
Damn
Why is Felix Day happy again?
Happy Felix day indeed.
Anyone want to predict when this team stops sucking, so I can go do other things for a few years and come back when it’s fun again?
The Thome trade is looking better every day.
The high point of watching this on GameDay and not MLB.TV is that I don’t have to hear anything about someone putting something on the board (YES!!!).
So, um, when do we get to full-time Good Felix?
What is wrong with the King?
Injury?
Bad mechanics?
Sophomore slump?
He looks terrible. No velo, no movement. This could be ugly.
16 Thanks. I already heard that, and you brought back the memory.
Wha, they moved Eddie Gaurdado to starter?
#14– If you want to be a Mariner fan, you can’t just leave when they suck. Otherwise you miss most of their existence.
Hey Dave, have you said anything about Buster Olney’s meme about Felix “falling off the mound on the first base side?” Is it worth commenting about?
“King” Felix? That nickname just isn’t working these days. Maybe “serf” Felix, because he serfs up so many runs.
If we can’t even count on him being mediocre, much less being just flat bad, who can we count on?
At least with bad Felix you know how deep the hole is early on…
There’s a lot of things I’ve haven’t said anything about. Work sucks, and I’ve been too busy to blog. I’m cheating right now, but this won’t last long.
Hey guys, if you don’t count the first three hitters, it was three up, three down.
And if you don’t count the three runs, it’s tied up.
28: I’m a glass-half-full kind of guy.
sweet! tie game and Felix is on fire…
Beltre needs to park one in the seats here.
Oh, and lost in the Bad Felix day is Petagine getting the start.
I’ll take a double.
Can we pinch-hit for Rivera?
If you don’t count that one bad inning by Washburn, the M’s won that game. Hey, if you don’t count the games they lost last season they had a winning record!
Yeah, I know I can’t check out during the bad years. The thing that sucks is, I followed them in the late 70s/80s when they really sucked, then missed the “good years” in the 90s, and only got back in time for Ichiro (which was nice, but not exactly compensation for, say, all of the 1980s). I’m just trying to time my karma a little better in this century….
Petagine — the infield single machiney.
7 batters 14 pitches and 2 strike outs. It’s swing-at-everything day again today.
Of all the days to NOT have Lopez batting 8th…
The silver lining in Felix’s first inning is that, with Rivera catching, dopes like Jeff Brantley cannot blame Johjima for Felix’s problems and struggles.
He had 14 pitches in the first when he faced 4 guys.
And it continues…
I stand corrected.
2nd and 3rd, none out…so what?
The silver lining in Felix’s first inning is that, with Rivera catching, dopes like Jeff Brantley cannot blame Johjima for Felix’s problems and struggles.
I’d rather Felix actually pitch well and let the ESPN guys think whatever the hell they want to think.
Do you really think that Johjima not catching would stop ESPN dudes from blaming him anyway? If only through misidentification.
44: When questioned on why he decided to play Rivera instead of Johjima, Hargrove said, “Jeff Brantley said something on ESPN the other night that really pissed me off, so I wanted to prove him wrong.”
Uh-oh … trainer on his way out to see Felix.
Uh oh.
Ahh, he’s ok.
Damn it Felix, you wouldn’t have leg problems IF YOU WOULD LAY OFF THE DORITOS.
Six in a row retired by Felix…he’s throwing a two-hitter.
So did Felix remember to pitch or does he still look the same as the 1BB and 2 hits in the first inning?
He’s sitting 90-92, his curve is in the 78-80 range, and he has no command.
He looks like crap, despite the six straight outs.
Hey guys I just got home…anyone wanna summarize the game for me?
Felix has now given up the same # of HRs (5) in 26 innings this year as he did in all 84 innings last year.
The Mariners need more 3 pitch k’s
Hey guys I just got home…anyone wanna summarize the game for me?
I can’t. This is a family website.
54: If you ignore the first three hitter, one of whom walked, one of whom singled, and one of whom hit a three run homer, Felix is throwing a perfect game.
Nevermind that just about summed it up
Aren’t there services that pretty much do the summary for you?
But those of you who can actually see the game video, your comments are really helpful (if distressing).
Argh. He really doesn’t look better, huh? The play-by-play is so heartening!
Damn, I can’t believe I bothered to call DirecTV to “move” my address so
I could see this game (and Petagine’s first start!) and they fall behind 3-0 in the first inning…guess I’ll be “moving” back to Seattle after the game…
Felix has now given up the same # of HRs (5) in 26 innings this year as he did in all 84 innings last year.
I’d guess this is due to the fact that he doesn’t have control of the hard, moving two-seamer so far this year and ends up throwing more flat four-seam fastballs.
4-0, Damn!
Can’t stand the Whitesox announcers.
It’s a velo problem. 92-93 is easy to crush, 97-98 is not. That missing 5-6 MPH is killing him.
At least Thome is on my fantasy team… but then so if Felix.
Felix needs a siesta…and a good stretch of those plump legs of his.
Look, if his legs are giving him a problem, GET HIM OUT OF THE GAME. Oh wait, let’s just let him go until he’s really pulled a hammy.
Sigh.
Sigh.
Felix looks out of shape to me. Shin splints usually happen if you haven’t run in a long time. I think he just fell in love with his persona and potential and it’s showing.
He looks like he’s trying to emulate CC Sabathia.
Or the Pilsbury Doughboy from Ghostbusters.
Time to send Felix down to Tacoma…Sigh.
71: I am about Felix’s age; sometimes shin splints happen for no good reason. Also, they aren’t very painful so they shouldn’t even be a problem.
More worrisome, if his legs are giving him a problem (and that may be where the missing velocity is gone) attempting to compensate could injure his shoulder or back. If this was his first start of the season I’d be thinking his offseason conditioning was completely inadequate (and it’s looking like it is anyway) but he did have the speed in his earlier starts, right? What happened? Too much partying last night with Freddy?
On a positive note, they’re only down four runs — and they’ve proven they can come back from a deficit like that. But the bats have to wake up, and Felix either has to get it together or they need to find some long relief…
I would rather see Bobby pitching after 5th inn.
I would rather see Bobby pitching to Thome.
We make every good pitcher look like a Cy Young candidate.
Gee, at least the hitters are making Contreras work (5 innings, 59 pitches).
I am trying to figure out which is worse: being a Trail Blazers fan or being a Mariners fan.
The times I have seen him (FH) he seems to be bored and disinterested. He also seems pretty cocky. I noticed the Detroit broadcasters saying that after he pitched vs them.
Of course I dislike the Mariners so I could be biased.
I’m still baffled by the statement that Contreras is due for a good shellacking, and that his ERA doesn’t match his performance.
I’m not sure what an .860 WHIP and .185 BAA say about a guy, but I have trouble seeing how his ERA is misleading.
WHIP and BAA are not good indicators of pitching talent.
They are good indicators of pitching success.
And they have a poor track record with projecting future performance. Which is what I was doing.
Do you measure talent or results?
I don’t have time to explain advanced pitching metrics to you guys. Go buy a copy of the Hardball Times 2006 Annual and you’ll be amazed what you can learn.
It sounded like you were suggesting he’s getting away with some poor pitching. He’s been fantastic so far this year.
He is getting away with poor pitching.
And no, he hasn’t been fantastic, unless you like to evaluate pitchers by ERA. Which is a bad idea.
Seriously, now, I’m going back to work. If you need more information on better ways to evaluate pitchers, maybe someone else here can pick up the ball and run with it.
Good grief. You might want to come off your high horse just a LITTLE, Dave.
But I’d appreciate just a quick explaination of why Contreras isn’t necessarily talented?
I’m not saying he isn’t talented. I’m saying that if he continues to pitch like has so far, he’s going to run an ERA in the 4.00 range rather than the 1.50 range.
He hasn’t pitched like a guy with a 1.50 ERA. He’s not missing bats, he’s not inducing a ton of ground balls or infield flys, and he’s putting men on base and leaving them there. That’s not a recipe for dominance. His ridiculously low ERA is almost entirely a product of his defense and luck.
He’s giving up less than a baserunner per inning, opponents are hitting less than .200, and he’s pitching poorly?
I can understand why Washburn’s 2005 ERA was an aberration, but Contreras?
He’s working efficiently (less than 4 pitches/AB), has an opposing OPS of .526, pitches better w/runners on base.
I don’t care about what his ERA says – he’s throwing the heck out of hte ball.
Just go buy a copy of the Hardball Times Annual and read it. It’ll do you some good.
Beltre can make me forget about how much he has sucked this year with one swing.
If you’d like to know more about more accurate ways to look at pitching beyond standard stats such as ERA, Batting average against, WHIP, there is a ton of information on the web for you.
Assuming Dave will just go over it at request for probably the billionth time, well that seems a little greedy.
K/9, K/BB rate, GB/FB rate, are all pretty good indicators of how a pitcher is actually pitching. Also look at his BABIP is it extremely low? Is that due to some luck? Is he giving up a ton of FB and getting a lower HR rate than you’d assume? Is he stranding a ton of runners?
If you’d like to know you can do the work. I don’t think that’s being on your high horse. Also Dave didn’t say he is talented, he said he hasn’t been fantastic.
I thought you were going back to work Dave
I though really do need to jet, later guys. Here’s to a comeback…
Nice at bat, Beltre. Good on you.
If you really think putting less than a baserunner/inning is a problem, fine. But he’s not Washburn, circa 2005. I think the Sox can live with less than a baserunner per inning. And heaven forbid he actually start pitching better when that baserunner does get on base.
And as for missing bats, I could care less. Ask Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine how important it is to miss bats.
And if you have a good defense behind you, why not pitch to that strength? It’s just like pitching in Safeco and taking into account the deep alleys. Pitchers in Safeco should, to be successful, pitch middle away and make hitters hit to the middle of the field. Same deal with a good defense. Make batters put the ball in play. It’s not a bad thing to actually make a hitter put wood on the ball.
Just to address your first point, no one is saying that putting fewer baserunners on is a bad thing. What they are saying is that his numbers don’t suggest that he will be able to maintain his current level of success.
Balls! That’s what I have to say about that…3 stranded
100 – Ron Fairly, is that you?
It’s not a bad thing to actually make a hitter put wood on the ball.
The chances that you’re going to score when you make contact with the ball are much, much higher than if you don’t make contact.
Also, you can’t defend against a home run.
100: I’m not an expert on this or anything and most of what I know has been picked up from reading here so I could be wrong…
But its not saying that putting less than a baserunner/inning is a problem. Its saying that its due to fielding and luck. And its also not saying that every single one of those things is vital. You don’t have to miss bats if you’re getting ground balls or doing other things well. And as for pitching better with baserunners on, that’s great. But from what I’ve heard, there’s nothing to say that its not a fluke and that he’ll actually be able to keep it up. You’d prefer to have him doing something which he’ll be able to keep doing consistently than something which just happened to kepp the ERA low in a really small sample.
This is where you lose it. The man’s WHIP is the best in baseball. Meaning, he puts on fewer baserunners than any other pitcher. Would someone PLEEZE explain why he’s due for a fall?
If so, what does that say about every other pitcher in baseball?
WHIP is useless as a predictive stat.
You don’t understand the difference between value stats and predictive stats. Until you do, you’re not going to get what we’re talking about.
People love to overlook the role luck plays in baseball. Clutch hitting, hot/cold streaks, whether a ball drops in or finds a hole, luck is a huge factor in all those things. All you can do is maximize your chances, but there’s an awful lot of simple random chance at play.
Having been lucky for a month says nothing about your chances of continuing to be lucky. The fact that you have been on a hot streak at the casino has no bearing on the likelihood of continuing that hot streak — or being “due” for a cold streak. There is no law of averages.
Come to think of it, it’s human nature to think there is meaning behind random events in all kinds of contexts besides baseball.
This is where you lose it. The man’s WHIP is the best in baseball. Meaning, he puts on fewer baserunners than any other pitcher. Would someone PLEEZE explain why he’s due for a fall?
If you want to use WHIP to mean something, you might also want to take a hard look at how he’s arriving at that WHIP. Not walking guys = good. Letting a bunch of guys hit the ball = potentially very dangerous. The fact that it hasn’t hurt him yet says nothing of the future effectiveness.
The most basic article on pitching analysis ever. Read that. It’s a start.
atait:
Greg Maddux has 3081 strikeouts in his career. That’s a lot of strikeouts. You have absolutely no justification to paint him as a ‘pitch to contact’ guy.
Going into this game, Contreras 17Ks in 37.1 innings pitched, to go with 8 walks. No matter the results so far that’s not generally a good recipe for sustained success.
Dave?? Still here Have a theoryregarding Felix as is a youngster and was not allowed to pitch in WBS could this be abit of a tantrum?
Speaking of luck, Jason Johnson just saw his ERA go from 3.41 to 4.68 in one inning.
the man has too much pride in himself to be pitching poorly as a tantrum. He knows who he is.
Its always fun when someone chops 12 runs off of his ERA.
112:
Huh?
damn that Crede.
Nice five pitch inning, Bobby.
Bloomquist? What? Pinch hitting? Huh? Petagine? Bueller?
WTF? WFB for Petagine?
The CHISOX radio crew just called Willie “the M’s ignitor”.
You know, I have to admit it’s really nice to listen to an M’s game without hearing some of the annoying parts of the broadcast. I absolutely love Niehaus and can tolerate don’t mind Valle and Fairly, but listening to the Chicago broadcast team just reinforces how annoying Hendu and Rizzs are. Hendu just can’t speak so I don’t know why he’s on the air, but Rizzs has an amazing radio voice. The problem with Rizzs is he tries to make EVERYTHING totally AMAZING and he basically has no soul. He’s so profoundly disingenuous that it makes me sick. I honestly don’t think I can take him anymore and I’ll be turning on the radio for commentary when he’s on TV from now on.
Also…are they seriously pinch hitting WFB for Petagine? Also the Sox announcers say he’s the IGNIGTOR too. WTF?
Hargrove has lost his mind.
Jason Johnson is now at 5.08 ERA for the season.
earlier today, it appeared Rizzs was reading the Chicago media guide aloud in between accasional play-by-play comments…
If Felix doesn’t watch the Doritos he’ll be looking like Jenks soon.
Out like lambs. *sigh*
122 – I have the complete opposite reaction… I find these morons for Chicago to be the worst announcers in baseball. I want to bash myself over the head with a life-size replica of Vin Scully everytime they open their mouths.
Uh oh…. Here comes the WFB string. Here I was about to complement Hargrove for using Bloomie in the right way, and then he goes and pulls this stunt to refute what I was thinking. (Hint… pinch runner, late inning defensive replacement) I don’t think anyone can reasonably defend this one.
M’s stink.
John, don’t get me wrong, they’re not very good. Then again we’re spoiled by Niehaus. The thing is they’re not good but they’re not actively annoying like basically 4/5 of the Mariner’s broadcast crew.
Nah, Fairly’s not actively annoying he’s just entirely predictable and flat.
Rizzs/Hendu/Valle all have their moments though.
Ok, true. It’s really Rizzs who has been bugging me a lot lately.
I don’t have to hear anything about someone putting something on the board (YES!!!).
Whenever the ChiSox go to Toronto the Jays’ announcers openly make fun of Hawk and his homerun calls.
I agree that the White Sox announces suck. I listened to the game at work with the screen hidden, and these guys are yelling whenever the White Sox do anything at all. Too bad the M’s can’t do anything to shut them up. Ehhh …
Hard to look back fondly at a game that your team lost before the first out was recorded.
Here’s my primer on pitching stats. It’s done in “shiny, happy, positive†mode. Meaning, nothing is “badâ€. But some things are better…
Height is a good stat for evaluating pitchers. If you don’t know anything else about a pitcher, get the tall guy, since Randy Johnson is really tall, and he’s a great pitcher.
W-L record is a better stat than height, since it tells you something about the pitchers performance so far. This is crucial, otherwise “pitchers and catchers report” would have to wait until after the NBA playoffs were over.
ERA is even better than W-L, since it accounts for great pitchers with less-than-great offensive support. This is important otherwise we’d think the M’s pitchers all sucked.
WHIP and BAA is even better than ERA, since they factor out some of the luck involved, as whether the other team bunches hits together to score a run or scatters hits and leaves lots of guys on base is largely not under the control of the pitcher.
K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 are even better than WHIP and BAA, since they factor out even more luck (such as seeing-eye singles and bloopers falling in) and they factor out the defense behind the pitcher.
Future-Stat-X is even better than K/9, BB/9 etc., because it factors out even more luck and even more things not under the control of the pitcher, but I don’t know what those things are because Future-Stat-X hasn’t been invented yet. But when it is, then we can all sniff at people using K/9 as being way behind the times. In a shiny, happy, positive way, of course.
Future-Stat-X is for lamers. Future-Stat-Y is the new kickass standard.
137. That’s pure genius.
#91– Seriously, now, I’m going back to work
boy, Dave wasn’t lying when he said he had to get back to work….
You guys all like the THT stats right? Going into today (and thanks to the M’s “offense” I can’t imagine these numbers regressed…so expect him to actually be better than this) Contreras lead the AL in LD% (9.6%) was 10th in the AL in infield fly’s and and 5th in the AL in HR per fly ball. Yes he’s way over-preforming mostly due to his LOB% but you aren’t giving him enough credit for what he is doing well. I’m fairly certain he should have a sub 4.0 ERA.
Predictive stats have a limit to their utility in that they treat all pitchers the same. They’re good in that they recognize that there are many roads to success: strikeouts can lead to good pitching, but so can groundouts and low walk rates. What they don’t take into account are changes in pitching strategy that would result from pitching in front of a good defense. They also don’t take into account the fact that the pitcher in question might have something exceptional to their pitching that causes them to break the rules. These exceptions can be in pitching style or in the pitches themselves. Greg Maddux, for one, has incredible intelligence on the mound that has allowed him to beat PECOTA for years. He also pitches better than his predictive (also known as peripheral) statistics would indicate. Jon Garland has maintained a .270 BA/BIP throughout his career, which is significantly less than the .300 standard for ML pitchers. For some reason, hits against him get turned into outs at a higher rate than league average. It’s a skill that allows him to beat predictive stats like DIPS and xFIP. On the “stuff†side, Jose Contreras has a dominating forkball that’s one of the best pitches in baseball. This, along with having a great defense behind him, may allow him to continue his pitching despite not having the component statistics to support it. Mark Buehrle has combination of both pitching style and stuff that allows him to beat his projections based on component statistics every year in his career. I believe, though I may be mistaken on this, that Buehrle has beat his component statistics by more than 1 Earned Run per nine innings several times in his career. The reason for this is that he has an incredible cut fastball that helps him against right handed hitters. He also works very quickly on the mound, which may benefit him somewhat.
All in all, I’d like to a study done about how often, and to what degree, certain pitchers outperform their projections. That would lead to a better understanding of the value that these component/peripheral/predictive statistics have to all pitchers. They might just work well for some of the guys, and require an adjustment for others. In Garland’s case, lower his predicted BA/BIP to .270 in the projection. Yes, it’s unusual, but he’s been unusual for his entire career. In Contreras’ case you can’t program into the model the fact that he has a dominating pitch (unless you actually can do that). Rather, modify his projections to show that he’s had one of the best Line Drive rates in the league over his pitching career. That guys don’t hit line drives off him could be due to the presence of one excellent pitch.
msb in #140, that’s way, waaa-aay, rich. I didn’t know DC was ‘an operator.’
Ouch. Beaten to the punch. Way to go, Marshall.
I’d also bet on Contreras having a sub-4 ERA from here on out, and he might end up at sub-3 for the season due to his hot start.
I’m not sure what’s wrong with Felix. The only time I ever watch M’s games is when they play the Sox, and so all I’ve seen is him getting owned by Brian Anderson. Incidentally, you guys must have a completely different picture of Anderson then the rest of the league for the same reason: he’s just really good against the M’s, the only time you ever see him.
Those studies have been done, Mike, and I guarantee you that Contreras is not some historical anomoly.
Why on earth is it so hard for people to admit that a guy might not be as good as one really flawed number would make him out to be? It’s like Red Sox fans have infected the entire world.
heeeyyyy watch it (sox fan here).
BP did some studies base on McCrackens theory on pitching effect on batted balls put in play turning into hits and found that some pitchers do seem to exercise some control (Moyer being one of them). What’s really cool is that some pitchers can control is but there is no evidence that any batter controls balls put in play turning into hits.
However, the best way to indicate good pitching is always high k/9, and high k/bb ratio. Guys that miss bats and don;t give up walks are the most effective pitchers.
Then why does Mark Buehrle make a habit out of outperforming his? If the model works for all pitchers, it should WORK for ALL pitchers.
Contreras will not maintain a 1.41 ERA. That’s a strawman. A big one. No one thinks that. He will, however, maintain a sub-4 ERA over the course of the year. Whether that’s due to the Sox’ defense or his forkball/LD% (or above average HR rate) is beyond me. In the end, all I care about are the results. I have a feeling that Jose could strike more guys out, and will start to do just that as the season progresses. He will, to borrow a phrase, regress to the mean of his career averages. That point’s moot, though, and I stand by my earlier one: DIPS and xFIP have great utility, but need to be placed in context when referencing specific players. For example: Mark Buehrle regularly outperforms the ERA his peripheral statistics would suggest by 20%. Ergo, we should adjust that prediction by 20%. That’s the new prediction, based on the model and its specific relationship to the player in question. That’s a frank adjustment based on his career.
Jose Contreras’ statistics will catch up to him, somewhat. His ERA will increase, and he’s not dominant enough to pitch 1.41 ERA ball all year long. He’s dominant enough normally, and he’s certainly not dominant enough with a lower strikeout rate. On the flip side, his LD% and K totals should return to his career averages, which even underrate him since they include his time with the Yankees. On the whole, he should continue to outperform his projections due to that same low HR rate, low LD%, and career norm K totals.
The guy’s for real, and he’s been for real for a really long time.
I think w/r/t Moyer you’re more likely talking about Tom Tippett’s study at Diamond Mind, which was the original Moyer-as-consistent.
No one argues that pitchers can’t have an effect on balls in play. The point is that the effect is much smaller even where it exists compared to what’s commonly believed.
Dave’s Original Claim: Contreras isn’t pitching anything you’d expect from a guy with a 1.41 ERA, and that number is going to go up-significantly-if he continues to pitch like he has.
Obviously, Mike, you and I don’t disagree, and everything else you’re arguing has nothing to do with the only point I’ve tried to make in this thread.
DIPS and xFIP and all that stuff aren’t perfect. We know that. But that’s essentially irrelevant to the discussion we were having.
MikeQ, I’m with you: Some guys consistently exceed their projections as indicated in models drawn from aggregates. I think that this is a function of individual-specific talent. I think these talents are diverse rather than of a single nature, and furthermore are very difficult to isolate within aggregate statistical totals, or even aggregate rates. There have been ’studies’ done, but I don’t think that the quality of data needed for real analysis on this issue is available, yet, if ever, and so the studies fail to isolate _individual-specific_ effects.
One would need to take Contreras’ starts, know what pitch was called, see where it was thrown, get a rating on the effectiveness of execution, see the result, and get a rating on the effectiveness of the result, and ideally get all that on video. Ideally, one would also want to control for the hitters, not simply handedness, but what kind of hitters they are, what kind of pitches they can handle, etc.; real scouting report kind of controls. At the end of that, one might conclude, just as a for instance, that a broad class of hitters, mostly RHers, can’t lift his forkball if he executes with it, leading to a weak ball in play, and furthermore that Jose throws the fork-er on different counts with men on base which crosses up the batters even more. —And even then, one would only have an explanation which fits ONE individual, an explanation which _no other player_ can reproduce since they can’t execute his fork-er. So the overall predictive models continue to predict perfectly well for everyone except him. His result is ‘unpredict-able’ by that model, which is not to say that it is either unexpected or chance.
In this context, it should be no surprise that it’s far, far more difficult for hitters to produce individual-specific effects: the pitcher knows what he wants to thrown, and has a chance to execute, but the hitter has to make the best of what he gets, and in real time.
However, I would also not be surprised if _defensive player_ can also produce small, individual-specific skews, not to the extent of pitchers, but real ones. Some guys are just BETTER at positioning, for example. And so on.
wow
hey! look! The Gambler’s fallacy.
“This coin has tossed tails four times! It’s due a head!”
Dave, please, please, please, take just one statistics/probability course.
#146
We’re all just idiot fan boys arguing for ERA, aren’t we?
Did Dave say:
“This coin has tossed tails four times! It’s due a head!”
or did he say:
“This coin has tossed tails four times! Don’t conclude from that that it is a coin likely to keep throwing tails! Rather I predict that there is a 50-50 chance for it to throw a head this time! Wouldn’t it be nice if it threw a head against the Mariners today?”
Ralph : It’s written there above. I even quoted it: “Contreras is due for a shallacking.”
That’s not “Contreras is not as good as he appears”, it’s not “Contreras has been lucky, and will regress to the mean”, its’ “Due a shellacking”. It’s absolutely the Gambler’s Fallacy writ large in its purest form.
The give away is “due”. In systems with no memory, there is no concept of “due”. He’s as likely to be exceptionally good again (lucky), as he is to be exceptionally bad (unlucky). Fate will not hand out a shellacking, just because it previously handed out a few excellent starts.