Nate Silver on the King
Dave · May 25, 2006 at 10:07 am · Filed Under Mariners
Baseball Prospectus has a subscriber-only column on King Felix today. Nate Silver takes a look at his early struggles, and what it means for his future. Without stealing his thunder, here’s the basic conclusion:
Even if Hernandez pitches this poorly for the rest of the season, it would only increase his medium-term ERA forecast by about a quarter point per season, and reduce his VORP by about 13% per season. And it’s unlikely that he will pitch this poorly all season, since the categories in which he’s underperformed are the most influenced by short-term luck.
In other words, Felix is fine, don’t worry.
Which is pretty much what I think everyone knows.
It was a solid analysis. Let’s look at what is causing Felix to suck. Hey, look, that’s not likely to continue.
Long live the King.
I was kinda thinking the same thing, absent the analysis. I just have seen him pitch so much better (or at least get better results, the team let him down a couple times) that I know we’ll see that again soon. As long as he keeps striking them out and grounding them out, we’ll be okay until the control returns.
If his overuse of the fastball (especially early in the count) and lack of control is a contributor to his problems when can we reasonably expect these things to change?
I understand that the team philosophy is ‘establish the fastball early, get ahead in the count’, so I assume that he is going to need to find that command rather than our coaching staff changing their collective mindset.
I’m very intrigued to check out the King tomorrow night in person against the Twins and Johan Santana Jr. (aka Francisco Liriano). It’s about the only good reason to go indoors to watch baseball!
Which is pretty much what I think everyone knows.
Except Jeff Brantley.
He’s joking about Verlander at the end, right? Even if he is, Verlander is, from what I can tell, the most overrated pitching prospect in all of baseball. His peripheral numbers are almost the same as Pineiro’s peripherals, which could make him a useful pitcher as he career progresses, but nothing close to the hype he’s currently receiving by pitching in a pitching haven supported by a good defense.
Verlander has all kinds of talent and great stuff. He’s nothing like Pineiro.
But yea, he’s not pitching all that well in the majors, low ERA be darned. He had to have been kidding.
To be fair, Mr. Silver is a big Tigers fan. I think he’s giving a shout out to one of his hometown nine at the end of the article.
FWIW, today SI has a note in a column by one Gennaro Filice:
“The Felix Hernandez situation: At 3-5 with a 5.84, King Felix has failed to live up to the enormous preseason hype. If he continues to struggle, the Mariners could find themselves in a precarious position. Some Seattle-area scribes have suggested that the 21-year-old phenom should be sent back down to the minors. Sending Hernandez down and acknowledging that he isn’t ready for the majors could harm the kid’s confidence. On the other hand, keeping Hernandez on the big squad and having him get pounded … could really harm the kid’s confidence. Felix matches up with another acclaimed youngster, Minnesota’s Francisco Liriano, on Friday. I’ll reserve judgment until I see how that goes.”
Except Jeff Brantley
Well Brantley is a blockhead, who can’t see past his own ego. Honestly sometimes I wonder why I waste my time on watching BBTN. Though Kruk entertains me for some strange reason.
There’s nothing left in the minors for Felix. He should never see Tacoma again unless he’s rehabbing, God forbid.
Dave I’d have to agree. There’s nothing to gain by shipping him back to Tacoma. Let him take his bumps and bruises at the Major League level it’s the only way he’s going to learn.
Felix doesn’t need to be sent down. This is a bit of a humbling experience for him which does some players good. With the “stuff” Felix possesses he should be just fine. Right now he is learning how to “Pitch” in the big leagues.
Felix matches up with another acclaimed youngster, Minnesota’s Francisco Liriano, on Friday. I’ll reserve judgment until I see how that goes.
And it matters who is on the other mound, why? What should matter is that Minnesota’s offense is largely punchless, not who is trying to keep runs off the board for the Twins. Not that one game could mean that much in evaluating a player anyway.
Sending Felix down would be counterproductive, it seems to me. As Dave has noted, Felix’ problem is that he throws too many fastballs at predictable points in the count. By going back down to triple-A, and facing inferior batters, he could actually get away with this, and not learn anything.
He’s fine, of course, but anyone else in the M’s system that pitches like this and they get the virtual boot on this site. Perhaps he’s got good athletic ability and little else? Unfortunately, you can’t be successful with just the former. I realize he’s 20, but if he’s ready for the ML’s he’s ready. They can’t send him back to AAA now or ever.
16 – That’s not true. Anyone who pitches poorly in Seattle AND in the minors gets the virtual boot here; but a pitcher who has a history of success at lower levels and then struggles with the big club is often strongly defended.
What people here care about, in my experience, are players who have justification for believing in their ability, whether or not they are living up to it at the moment.
Nice broad over-generalization there, too.
Which one, DMZ?
Hey, it could be worse. Anybody paying attention to Cole Hamels?
Sending Felix down would be counterproductive, it seems to me. As Dave has noted, Felix’ problem is that he throws too many fastballs at predictable points in the count. By going back down to triple-A, and facing inferior batters, he could actually get away with this, and not learn anything.
Think this is EXACTLY the point.