http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/statistical-curiosities/

“It’s quite possible that Bonds and McGwire took a ton of steroids, and maybe possible that he got a few extra HR out of it. But how many? I mean, really, if steroids can so easily take you from 40 to 70 HR, then how come all the other supposed juicers didn’t do it? How come Palmiero didn’t jump up to 70?”

Perhaps it wasn’t easy … perhaps Barry actually had more talent or worked harder at it than Palmeiro … and perhaps Raffie started Roids earlier in his career and his 40 was was the result or 20-25 guy using. Of course, Palmeiro says he wasn’t a user at all – so maybe he could have hit 70.

But starting from the assumption that Bonds started using in 2000 or so after seeing what McGwire & Sosa did, it should be relatively easy to determine it’s affect. Project his normal career output using numbers through 2000 … the difference should be the Roids effect. I think this has been done somewhere but I don’t remember where.

Maybe if Pujols can top him they’ll be forced to find some other reason for it, like maybe these guys are really, really good hitters. Barry as well as Albert. Pujols is still about 150 points back of Barry’s season best in OPS, in an easier park, in a third of a season.

There’s a flaw in the OPS calculation – IBB are the result of the opponent manager’s strategy (which as mentioned above is a function of who’s up next, the score, the manager’s frame of mind etc) and not results actually produced by the hitter. Til Bonds, the difference was pretty much negligible – but the two players are much closer than generally believed as a result.

way before all the other decision points dmz mentions you have to look at who you will face after the walk. rolen has an ops of just under .900. for most of bonds’ hot years, the rest of the sf lineup has been total garbage. it’s amazing he ever got a pitch to hit.

Wrong and cheating are different things. I make no claims that baseball has any moral value whatever. I would further assert that rules are value-neutral. They’re just arbitrary limits placed on the game.

Nothing is value-neutral, can’t be by definition. If people didn’t care one way or another, there’d be no reason to set a rule. All rules are value driven.

The game of baseball has no moral value but the people who do play and watch baseball are value driven. That many were offended by my earlier comment is great testament to that. They saw that as evil, wrong and not ommensurate with their values of right and wrong.

Russ, not only is it deplorable that you’re advocating throwing at a guy,

I’ve taken my lumps here. I made light in a manner in which reasonable people have been offended. My bad. I don’t wish to see any athlete hurt regardless of who they may be or my opinion of them. I want them all to grow old with everything working so they can play with their children. Again, my bad. I laughed but I laughed alone. Had I said this over beers, many of us may have laughed but none of us would be hoping to see that happen.

The two year old wants more soda, but what’s fair is that he gets an amount proportional to his body, what he can handle, which is probably less than the amount an adult can handle.

I think you missed my point. I agree that a smaller portion is fair for a 2-year old. What I’m saying is that a 2-year old already understands and recognizes the concept of fairness. He may not have recognized the size differential, he only knew that him and I are both people, therefore equal. That is my point, children get the philosphophical equality of people and fair play. He questioned the situation and discerned an inequality.

As such, sure, let’s assume Bonds kept quiet because he knew people would be upset about his PEDs. He knew they’d view him with scorn and derision.

That has absolutely nothing to do with the rules of baseball, and those are what determine if he was cheating.

It’s not by accident I claim to be the Ideal Rational Agent. I have some funny ideas about some stuff.

Thanks.

Yeah and A-Rod will break the record on a grand slam when his team is down by 9:-)