Charting Pitches – Want to Help?
Okay, so, if you haven’t noticed, I’ve gotten into this whole Charting Felix thing. I’ve now discovered that mlb.TV archives the game footage off of Fox’s broadcasts, which means if I chart off the archive, I get radar readings. So, I’m now putting together a plan to create a Felix database, charting every pitch he throws this season.
I’ve created a fairly easy-to-use excel spreadsheet to record the data. The problem is time – I don’t have enough to go back and rewatch all his starts. So, if you have mlb.tv and want to volunteer to chart a game, email us and I’ll send you the spreadsheet and a date of one of his starts to watch.
After we get all his previous starts logged, I’ll keep charting the rest of his starts, and we’ll put together a database of Felix’s pitches for the year. Could be a really interesting tool.
Monday goodness
Joel Pineiro yelled at Felix, and that may have made all the difference. The next logical leap will be Meche yelling at Pineiro.
Johjima on the squeeze and his preference for scoring, rather than having someone try to score on him.
Hargrove takes the long view on the sweep.
Team’s not pleased Felix wasn’t honest about his ankle.
Charting Felix… again
I have a feeling this might become a trend. I tracked each of Felix’s pitches from his start yesterday. Here’s the results.
103 pitches – 65 fastballs, 21 curveballs, 16 changeups, 1 unidentified
% of each pitch: 64% fastballs, 20% curveballs, 16% changeups
First pitch selection: 22 fastballs, 4 curveballs, 3 changeups
The mix here is actually fine. 60/20/20 is a pretty good mix for Felix, I think. However, the key is the last line – he started almost every single batter with a fastball, then went to offspeed stuff late in the count. The pattern is the same as its always been – fast early, soft late. If you go up looking for a fastball early in the count, you’re almost certainly going to get one, and you can jump on it. Which, as you’ll see below, is what happened.
Results by pitch:
Fastball – 25 balls, 40 strikes (balls in play counted as a strike), 7 groundball outs, 3 line drive outs, 2 fly ball outs, 5 singles, 1 double, 2 walks, 1 strikeout
Curveball – 10 balls, 11 strikes, 1 home run, 1 walk, 2 strikeouts
Changeup – 1 ball, 15 strikes, 3 groundball outs, 1 strikeout
Of the 29 batters Felix faced, 21 of them ended their at-bats on a fastball. All but one of the hits came off the FB. Roberts’ homer came on a curve that had good movement but was up a bit – I’m not really concerned about that, though, because that pitch usually isn’t swung at. Roberts’ just hit a decent pitch.
The obvious thing that jumps out here is just how dominating his change-up was yesterday. I noted that in the game thread early, and was asking for more change-ups by the third inning. It was devastating. 1 ball, 15 strikes! It was put in play three times – two grounders back to the mound, and a ground ball to shortstop for an easy out. It was the only pitch he could locate yesterday, and Johjima should have made an adjustment and started calling more change-ups.
Other miscellaneous notes:
There were three instances where Felix just threw too many fastballs in a row; he started the game with 9 straight, then 6 consecutive fastballs in the third, and finally 8 fastballs without an offspeed pitch in the 6th inning. During these three stetches where he was all fastballs, all the time, the Padres went 4 for 5 with a walk.
Felix only got 0-1 on 10 of the 29 batters he faced. The other 19 either took the first pitch for a ball or put it in play.
If mlb.tv ever goes back to showing the broadcast camera, I’ll add in radar readings. It looked like he was throwing fine, velocity wise. Yesterday’s problems were all about command.
Basic summary: He still needs to vary his pitch selection, especially early in the count. The change-up needs to be used more, especially when he can’t command his fastball. Which, at this point, is every start. And until he starts throwing strikes early in the count, he’s going to be pitching from behind, and they’re going to sit on his fastball. Once he starts throwing strikes early in the count, either by commanding his fastball or mixing in more offspeed stuff, the results will come – it will be a cascade, where that simple fix remedies all his problems.
Jose Lopez, best second baseman in baseball
No kidding: right now, he’s up there offensively with Chase Utley and some other scrubs (Jose Vidro? Please). He’s hitting a ridiculous .304/.330/.511 as I type this. That’s like his 2004-5 PCL numbers, no difficulty adjustment or anything. And we’ve seen him play good defense, as well, which we hadn’t seen consistently from the position since what, Boone 03?
That’s an All-Star performance. It’s helped by his ridiculous 34-RBI total (as a #2 hitter!). People love the RBI.
I don’t expect him to continue this well for the rest of the season, though I do still think he’s going to be a good player.
There are some weird ticks in his line so far (check out his stats over at The Hardball Times): he’s hitting a lot of grounders, which is odd and he’s getting a lot of home runs off his fly balls. He’s never been a good walk guy, but he’s down from his career minor league percentages by a ways.
Now, that in itself isn’t unusual. A lot of players see their walk numbers drop. They’re challenged more often by better pitchers, and so on. But what you also see in the majors is power gets junk. Someone hitting for huge power, even if they largely swing at crap, will still walk a reasonable amount because pitchers don’t want to see them connect on something and put it over the wall.
Look through the AL batting leaders. The power hitters around him take way more walks. There are few huge power guys who take as few walks per plate appearance, and those guys have twice as many (Shea Hillenbrand, with 6 walks in his .333/.370/.496 line, is the closest match, but there are a few, like Alex Rios, Chris Shelton, and Kevin Mench, hitting for a lot more power and only getting a few more BB/PA).
This may not mean anything. After all, it’s a couple of walks either way at this point in the season. It would be bad if pitchers, respecting his extra-base power, started to pitch him farther and farther out of the strike zone and he didn’t make some adjustments.
I don’t see it, though. He’s a smart guy, and we know he’s not a total hacker up there. If he stops finding success at what he’s doing, he’ll tighten it up a little.
In the meantime, he’s one of the few bright spots we’ve had this season, and it’s been good to finally see him break through.
Week 7
LLL in Oakland, WWW back home.
I went to both Saturday and Sunday games, and I was impressed by the crowds and the fact that they stuck around for almost the whole game. I’ve seen a lot of games these last few years where the fan erosion starts as early as the 6th, and the flood out the gates is at the top of the 8th.
The games against the Padres, who came into Seattle on a tear, probably bought Hargrove two weeks. Friday I’d have said it was a coin flip on whether he’d be here Monday, and if the Padres beat the team down it’d be certain. Of course, if those two weeks go badly, that’ll come down in a hurry
Random thoughts on this week
– Seeing Mike Cameron play center here for another team makes me sad. Even today, he ranges so far, so easily, that it’s sometimes suprising: I’d find him him camped out under a ball I’m used to thinking would be a double.
– Speaking of which, I get annoyed at the constant booing of Alex and weird love for Tino Martinez, but it’s really classy to see Cameron get a nice round of applause his first at-bat every day. His inability to hit well at Safeco Field over his career meant he had to fight for the respect he deserved, and it’s good to see he’s remembered well.
– Felix, whoever’s calling the pitches from the dugout… dude. The scouting report’s getting around. You can’t throw fastballs all the time, they’re onto it
– Gil Meche in the last week: 2-0, 13 IP, 11 H, 2 HR, 4 BB, 12K… but 7 runs allowed.
– I was a ways off, but I saw Sexson swing at some terrible-looking pitches
– So Reed had a wrist injury (which are notorious for sapping power, which Reed hasn’t shown much of to date), gets a lot of rest, and bam! He’s hitting well. He hit .280 with good power over the last week. I’d love to see him continue to hit
– Beltre’s driving me batty
– I wish sometimes that I could pay certain pundits to declare Ichiro “done” (and their many previous declarations of his done-ness finally redeemed), because everytime I read one of those, he goes on one of these tears. Over the last week he’s hitting .423 (with a walk and no power, but still).
– Lopez had an insane week: 13-25, 3 doubles, 2 triples, 2 home runs (and 1 walk, 2 K). After seeing him struggle in his call-ups from 2004-2005, it’s been great to see him succeed, and even better, the fluff pieces show he’s turned his reputation in the organization almost entirely around (which also demonstrates that success has many parents)
– Everett continues to hit well. It’s not the “really kicking ass” that Bavasi said would be the only way he’d get his option to vest — and that looks more and more likely, unfortunately.
– The only explanation for those bizarre personal tidbits they throw up on the video screen is that the team got together and agreed to all give the weirdest answers possible.
“Hey, Ichiro, what are you going to put for your favorite movie?”
“Dunston Checks In.”
“Dude, that’s too obvious.”
“Miss Congeniality.”
“Oh, that is perfect. Kenji?”
“My first job was as a masseuse.”
“Good, good, that’ll help you with the women, too. What about you, Carl?”
“I thought about this for a while, and I decided I could really honk some people off and be funny.”
“Okay, what’s the joke?”
“I’m putting my favorite subject in school was math and science.”
(general applause)
– Johjima’s the 12th-best catcher in the majors using VORP, in large part because we haven’t seen the power we thought might turn him into an All-Star, and he’s 6-26 at throwing out baserunners, which will gradually lead to teams running on him more, and we’ll see if that holds up.
Lawton DFAd, Morse up
Lawton, who asked to be moved if he wasn’t going to get more playing time, got his wish, as the team designated him for assignment, which means he’s off the 40-man and the price of acquisition for another team may be as low as future considerations.
(MLB.com
Mike Morse was called up. MLB.com notes “In Lawton’s place, the Mariners added versatility to their roster by recalling Mike Morse from Triple-A Tacoma. Morse can play the outfield and several infield positions.”
Morse has played some left really badly, and doesn’t play anywhere in the infield well. I don’t see that as versatility.
Also, Fruto down and Mateo’s off the DL.
Game 45, Padres at Mariners
Chan Ho Park vs Felix Hernandez at 1:05 pm.
Don’t look now, but Chan Ho Park is having a hell of a year. He’s throwing strikes, missing bats, and keeping the ball in the yard, all leading to a 3.27 ERA in 52 1/3 innings. While he’s seemingly been around forever, he’s only 32 years old, and pitching in PETCO may be just what the doctor ordered to revive his career.
Of course, Chan Ho Park will have only a minimal impact on who wins the game today. The victor will essentially be crowned by the King. If we get Good Felix, the one who is mixing pitches, throwing strikes, and getting ground balls, the Padres aren’t going to muster any offense. If we get Bad Felix, who misses high in the strike zone, works slowly, and throws predictable pitch sequences, they’ll jump on him early.
Let’s hope for Good Felix.
Game 44, Padres at Mariners
RHP Clay Hensley v RHP Gil Meche.
Meche so far this year: 44.2 IP, 6 HR, 23 BB, 32 K. I’m not excited about heading out to this particular game, though I’ll be happy to hang out at Safeco with good company, in the specific sense and in the more general:
It’s Little League Weekend at the park, so free caps for the kiddies. It looks like the crowds are back for summer: there are 15,000 tickets up for tonight and 12,000 tomorrow (for Felix v Chan Ho Park), which means the team’s going to cruise to 35k crowds every night.
To be a little more of a downer and preserve our reputation as being overly negative —
2004 Mariners: 13-25 on May 18, 18-30 on May 29th.
2005 Mariners: 18-25 on May 22nd.
Friday cat blogging
Nearly the last picture my Minolta DiMage 7 took before it died. It was a good camera in the rare times it was working.
Game 43, Padres at Mariners
Dave Valle. Joy.