Good News, Bad News

Dave · June 5, 2006 at 9:45 am · Filed Under Mariners 

We’re two months into the season, so let’s look at how things have gone. We’ll call this Good News/Bad News, though we realize we might struggle to find equal amounts of Good News.

Good News!

Ichiro! is hitting .339.

Bad News!

The next highest average on the team belongs to Jose Lopez. He’s hitting .280.

Good News!

Speaking of Lopez, he leads the team in home runs, SLG%, and RBI’s.

Bad News!

Jose Lopez also leads the major leagues in sacrifice bunts.

Good News!

Roberto Petagine’s first 3 plate appearances of the year resulted in a home run, a double, and a walk, all as a pinch-hitter. That’s a nifty 1.000/1.000/3.000 line.

Bad News!

His last 24 plate appearances have resulted in 2 singles, 2 walks, and 20 outs. That’s a not-as-nifty .095/.174/.095 line.

Good News!

Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson both went yard twice this weekend.

Bad News!

Their combined 12 home runs on the season is one less than Ty Wigginton has by himself.

Good News!

J.J. Putz has been as good a reliever as you’ll find in baseball.

Bad News!

Eddie Guardado has not.

Good News!

Rafael Soriano looks to be fully healthy and is throwing as well as ever.

Bad News!

Gil Meche looks to be fully healthy and is throwing as poorly as ever.

Good News!

Jamie Moyer has taken crafty veteran status to a whole other level.

Bad News!

King Felix has taken inexperienced 20-year-old status to a whole other level.

Good News!

The M’s have the fifth pick in the draft tomorrow

Bad News!

They’ll probably have a top 5 pick next year, too.

Comments

73 Responses to “Good News, Bad News”

  1. mandy bot on June 5th, 2006 3:01 pm

    Dave, that was a good rebuttal of bookbooks post. I went to the THT site and all the stats were as you said. One thing I noticed while I was there was that our record in “close games” (and two run games) was 9-17, about as bad as I could find. And as you would guess, teams having bad years have poor records in close games and good teams have good records in those games. Gwangung correctly mentioned in another post that we are underperforming our projected pythagorean record as well. That made me wonder about the relationship between the two and made me wonder if poor managing would cause that. So I checked the variance between the pythagorean and actual records and as you would expect it was in most cases negative for a team with a losing record in close games and positive for teams with winning records in close games. That seems fairly intuitive to me, although one is based on our predicted record based on run differential and the other is our actual record in tight games. So they are not exactly the same thing. However, to make the numbers work out it seems like a team would have to lose alot of close games to have a large variance and that could be considered a sign of a bad manager.

  2. mandy bot on June 5th, 2006 3:03 pm

    part of the second line on my post above should be: (one and two run games)

  3. lokiforever on June 5th, 2006 3:05 pm

    gwangung

    I concur. Overusing WFB in Centerfield, and then no one else or nothing else is not smart bench use.

    I’d like to see WFB and Mike Morse each get a start every week, across CF, LF, 3B, SS, and 2B. I’d like to see Petagine Once a week at either 1B or DH, and see other regulars get a shot at DH once a month. This means a regular would get a day off once every 2-3 weeks, and we’d have 3 sharp or sharper guys on the bench.

    I’m not a bring back Lou crazed fan, but I thought his use of McLemore and giving the regulars occaisional rest was smart managing.

  4. Nick on June 5th, 2006 3:08 pm

    I love all this talk of Pythagorean wins . . . but can anybody tell me when they play the Pythagorean World Series?

  5. Ralph Malph on June 5th, 2006 3:11 pm

    I agree completely with lokiforever’s suggested bench usage in 52. And you time those days off so that you (1) rest the regulars against starters they have trouble with, and (2) give the bench guys their best opportunities and best platoon advantages. In other words, the game when Morse plays LF in place of Ibanez would be with a lefthander on the mound. When Petagine plays 1B in place of Sexson it is against a RHP. And so on. When Bloomquist plays CF (shudder) in place of Reed it is against a LHP. Not a platoon, just smart bench usage.

    Hargrove’s bench usage shows no sign of being part of any kind of plan. He sits more than one starter some games and none another, and he puts bench guys in when they are at a platoon disadvantage sometimes. It seems to be a one-game-at-a-time thing, perhaps based on how desperate he is to get a win on any given day to keep from getting fired that day.

  6. gwangung on June 5th, 2006 3:11 pm

    Dave, that was a good rebuttal of bookbooks post. I went to the THT site and all the stats were as you said. One thing I noticed while I was there was that our record in “close games” (and two run games) was 9-17, about as bad as I could find. And as you would guess, teams having bad years have poor records in close games and good teams have good records in those games. Gwangung correctly mentioned in another post that we are underperforming our projected pythagorean record as well. That made me wonder about the relationship between the two and made me wonder if poor managing would cause that. So I checked the variance between the pythagorean and actual records and as you would expect it was in most cases negative for a team with a losing record in close games and positive for teams with winning records in close games. That seems fairly intuitive to me, although one is based on our predicted record based on run differential and the other is our actual record in tight games. So they are not exactly the same thing. However, to make the numbers work out it seems like a team would have to lose alot of close games to have a large variance and that could be considered a sign of a bad manager.

    Well, at least there’s prima facie reasoning to think that managers have more effect on one-two run games…..

    lokiforever….I wouldn’t have an argument with that kind of player use. It seems more sensible to me than what’s been done the last two years….

  7. Bender on June 5th, 2006 3:11 pm

    Why on earth would you want to see Mike Morse play ever, let alone once a week?

  8. Ralph Malph on June 5th, 2006 3:12 pm

    If a guy is on the major league roster he should start at least once every couple of weeks. Period.

  9. dw on June 5th, 2006 3:21 pm

    I disagree. It should be position-dependent. If it’s a platoon, he should start 2-3 times a week. If he’s a defensive sub, 1-2 times. Pinch hitter, 1-2 times. But it should vary.

    For instance, I think Bloomquist should be not be starting except to rest a player. I’d only like him to start in a week where there are seven games.

  10. Ralph Malph on June 5th, 2006 3:25 pm

    dw I thought that’s what he said.

  11. Evan on June 5th, 2006 4:32 pm

    …as long as the Phillies score some behind him, he figures he could help the rotation.

    I can’t believe Franklin’s already grousing about his run support, and he’s not even in the rotation yet.

  12. eponymous coward on June 5th, 2006 4:33 pm

    Good News!

    Jeff posted recently.

    Bad News!

    That means Jeff’s not due to post again until sometime after King Felix’s 3rd consecutive Cy Young in 2011.

  13. Adam S on June 5th, 2006 4:34 pm

    Has anyone done a study to determine whether the teams of certain managers consistently underperform their Pythagoreans?
    I believe the guys at Baseball Prospectus did this in Baseball Between the Numbers and showed no year-to-year correlation between over/under-performing Pythagorean for managers.

  14. Bender on June 5th, 2006 4:40 pm

    Morse shouldn’t be on the roster. Given that he’s on the roster he shouldn’t play because he sucks. Since he sucks the more you play him the more you make the team suck, it’s pretty simple.

  15. gwangung on June 5th, 2006 5:17 pm

    Morse shouldn’t be on the roster. Given that he’s on the roster he shouldn’t play because he sucks. Since he sucks the more you play him the more you make the team suck, it’s pretty simple

    Well, yeah….I think there were at least two Tacoma player NOT rehabbing who were better choices….but I still think if he’s here, use him, because the degradation in the rest of the team brings them down past his level (and I don’t think he’s THAT bad)

  16. Ralph Malph on June 5th, 2006 5:29 pm

    You can’t have a guy on the roster and just not use him. Well, you can if you’re Lou and he’s a Rule 5 guy.

  17. sidereal on June 5th, 2006 5:48 pm

    You can’t have a guy on the roster and just not use him. Well, you can if you’re Lou and he’s a Rule 5 guy.

    Luis Ugueto sighting!

  18. Bender on June 5th, 2006 6:00 pm

    You can use the guys who stink as little as possible.

    Given that they have Morse up it’s not that unreasonable to have him fester on the bench instead of stink in the field. I don’t think the guy can field any position at the Major league level and he’s never going to hit.

  19. msb on June 5th, 2006 6:06 pm

    I just love the fact that it had to be Morse, because they needed an infield back-up, and then they never give the infield a day off….

  20. gwangung on June 5th, 2006 6:20 pm

    I just love the fact that it had to be Morse, because they needed an infield back-up, and then they never give the infield a day off….

    Grover all over.

  21. bookbook on June 5th, 2006 7:08 pm

    I stand corrected. The Mariners are a phenomenally unlucky 80-win team, on track to win 70-73 games this year.

    (this sounds to me a little bit like the anti-greens who had to stop criticizing Gore for being wrong about global warming, but settle now for condemning him for being right too early.)

  22. The Ancient Mariner on June 5th, 2006 9:28 pm

    Y’know, if you’re trying to answer complaints that you’re not misrepresenting and belittling those with whom you disagree, it’s generally not a good idea to add another example of misrepresenting and belittling those with whom you disagree.

  23. bookbook on June 7th, 2006 7:03 pm

    I disagree with that characterization of what I’ve done or attempted to do, Ancient one. I would personally be shocked if the M’s win more than 73 games this year (and/or if Sexson, Beltre, Reed ever forms a championship-quality heart of an order).

    I’d be glad to be wrong…

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