Draft aftermath
Larry Stone’s writes a nice draft piece focusing on Morrow:
the reaction in Seattle’s war room when the Mariners made the fifth overall pick  California junior right-hander Brandon Morrow  made it clear that this was the college arm they were targeting.
Again, I have no idea, but if the people in the war room had already been told by ownership they couldn’t go get Miller, and Morrow was the guy they wanted next, that’s going to be their reaction. During the draft, they’re not going to be calling up Lincoln and asking if he’s got an extra $3m hanging around and if he’s in the mood to spend it because they’re shocked Miller was still available.
There’s actually some support for this in David Andriesen’s PI piece:
The Mariners had a chance to take Andrew Miller, the North Carolina left-hander who was once considered a lock to be the top overall pick but dropped amid fears about his asking price. But in the conference room, packed with two dozen Mariners officials, there was not a word of discussion after the early picks. Morrow was Plan A. The Mariners passed on Miller, who went to Detroit with the next pick.
Not a word of discussion? That seems like – at least – they had the same idea others did, that Miller might be dropping, and had already considered it.
I’ll stop flogging that angle. We’ll probably never know unless somone like Fontaine or Bavasi spills, and that’s not the kind of thing that leaks if you want there to be a next year (or a next job) in your baseball future.
Andriesen also has a short description of what the draft room is like.
Art Thiel has a weird bit on Morrow and the M’s pitching injuries.
Everything I have read and heard states Fontaine had been watching Morrow throughout his career, and indeed Brandon was his first choice. Brock even wrote about a mild celebration with Fontaine smiling and leading the way with applause. Was that just orchestrated to appease Lincoln, or fictional fluff? I find it hard to believe Howard Lincoln is possibly to blame on Fontaine’s decision to pass on Miller. It explains why he passed on Lincecum if Morrow was his target.
Speaking of left and right handed pitchers…
LHP Francisco Liriano v LHP Felix Hernandez. 7:05 etc etc
I know The King is good, but he’s not THAT good.
In any event, my vote on the left is for “shrugged off”. I don’t know my Andrew Millers from my Brandon Morrows and I think that maybe some are blowing this crap way the hell out of proportion. Is Morrow going to help us? Probably. There’s a lot of things that could happen that determine such things; none of which I can accurately forsee. Would Andrew Miller have helped us? Probably. God knows what would have happened as a result of us picking him.
In the end we got a good prospect out of what many were calling a really bad crop of baseball talent. I’ve gotten into this arguement with Dave before that the ends justify the means, or the results validate or invalidate a good or bad decision. In this case, you have 100% player A or 80% of player A in player B. With pitching prospects being the crapshoot that they are, how about we just mind the results on this one, eh?
Too much speculative complaining about what Howard Lincoln and the M’s FO might or might not have decided. Too much questioning of Fontaine’s decision making / control of the situation. All this is bunk until we have facts. So why are we harping on it? Move on please.
Er, TIF, what is baseball about other than a bit of on-field play and lots of off-field rumor, speculation, jawing, booing and cheering? Move on?
In the M’s strata, it makes no sense not to take the best player available, damn the cost. I think DMZ speculated in his other post that there might be an unwillingness to spend “full boat” on Miller because the next guy down is 75% the player for 50% the cost. If a club with means approaches a draft like that, they’ll never, ever draft the top guy, because the next guy down always wins on the that cost-analysis basis. And I think it’s fair to say that in the big leagues, there is a huge value to having the absolute top pitcher vs. the next guy down.
And if you’re not going after the best guy, why participate at all, really? Obviously if you simply don’t have the money, that’s one thing. But we clearly do. If I was Detroit’s scouting manager I’d still be giggling.
And yes, Miller may spontaneously combust, and Morrow may turn into a superstar, but you cannot judge a deal like this on that basis. Player contracts are gambling, and when you’re playing no one lets you see all the cards before you decide whether you’re in or not.
Put me in the disappointed club.
By the way, you think we got screwed on draft day? How ’bout this?:
The A’s first-round pick went to the Nationals for signing Loaiza.
Ouch.
Er, TIF, what is baseball about other than a bit of on-field play and lots of off-field rumor, speculation, jawing, booing and cheering? Move on?
Yes, move on. I can understand lots of things not to be happy about with the Mariners and lots of things to grumble about. I’m having a hard time finding anybody not grumbling about Andrew Miller being passed up. As if the entire commencement of today has been labeled the Black Tuesday of Mariners History. The biggest problem I have with it is that nobody seems to know the facts, and a lot of people are taking the speculation to heart.
In the M’s strata, it makes no sense not to take the best player available, damn the cost.
That’s an arrogant statement to make, and it’s been made over and over again today. We don’t know that cost had anything to do with it. It’s sure making for more sexy conversation though, isn’t it?
I think DMZ speculated in his other post that there might be an unwillingness to spend “full boat†on Miller because the next guy down is 75% the player for 50% the cost. If a club with means approaches a draft like that, they’ll never, ever draft the top guy, because the next guy down always wins on the that cost-analysis basis. And I think it’s fair to say that in the big leagues, there is a huge value to having the absolute top pitcher vs. the next guy down.
80%. Another gripe that I’m seeing is this cost-analysis thing only relating to signability. To throw more speculation on the fire, what if the Mariners weren’t speculating on signability, but merely on risk / reward and cost analysis. Was Miller such a spectacular risk at whatever money was, again, speculated to be his asking price?
And if you’re not going after the best guy, why participate at all, really? Obviously if you simply don’t have the money, that’s one thing. But we clearly do. If I was Detroit’s scouting manager I’d still be giggling.
You’re making it sound like Morrow sucks. As if anybody but Andrew Miller wouldn’t have done. I’m reading around that lots of people like / liked Morrow. I’m reading around that lots of people liked Miller. I’m reading around that quite a few liked Miller more then Morrow. Miller may be better then Morrow. I don’t know, I’m not a scout and don’t get paid for this. What I do know is we got a good player and a top notch pitcher.
And yes, Miller may spontaneously combust, and Morrow may turn into a superstar, but you cannot judge a deal like this on that basis. Player contracts are gambling, and when you’re playing no one lets you see all the cards before you decide whether you’re in or not.
Actually you can. That’s kind of the whole point of the idea of the draft being a crapshoot. You go with your best scouting, instincts, and risk / reward analysis, but in the end it’s not like what we can do with metrics and quantify a good player over a bad player before drafting them. In this case, we have to evaluate whether we did a good or bad job in a draft down the road. John Sickels over at minorleagueball.com does it all the damn time. Going back and reviewing what we drafted or didn’t draft and seeing the results of what we thought would be a good or bad player helps us to analyze what might or might not be worth drafting in the future.
And, if the speculation is really warranted, then the huge speculation floating around Andrew Miller and his asking cost and signability is something we should watch for. If the Tigers sign him for relatively cheap and without a significant delay, then we can kick ourselves in the ass bloody all we want. If they don’t, though, then perhaps we should chalk this up as another scenario where the risk of signability might have been something to heed.
We can go in circles all we want on this issue. The point that I am trying to make is simply that without fact, we know nothing. We can only guess. And because we have nothing solid to base anything on, we should wait and see what the results are. Then we can use that as a model for the future.
After I read about their pick yesterday at #5, followed by Dave’s assumption (and my belief) that it was only about the money, I had to sit there and shake my head. A sigh of resignation. The Mariners and Sonics are very much alike in this way. The Mariners hands are tied by Lincoln, and the Sonics by Wally Walker.
Then, you have the Seahawks. Would they have passed on a talent like Miller? You get the feeling that their GM would’ve gone to Paul Allen and said “He’s the best player available” and Allen would’ve told him to go get him, no matter if it would cost $7M more. Why? Because Allen wants to win. The reason the Seahawks will be back in the playoffs this year is because not only has Allen built his team around knowledgable executives, but he listens to them and backs them up with his wallet. And unlike Pat Gillick’s legacy, the Seahawks are also built for the future.
The Mariners and Sonics had the opportunity to do this. However, they squandered their hold on this city. Wally Walker has singlehandedly ruined pro basketball in Seattle. Howard Lincoln has done the same with the Mariners. Let go George Karl and Sweet Lou for essentially the same reason. Alienate your star players by signing bad players to large contracts. Watch your star players leave and get nothing in return. Watch your fanbase go from sellouts to stadiums/arenas that are less than half empty.
I respect Paul Allen and what he’s done with the Seahawks.
I can not say the same for what’s happened with the Sonics or the Mariners. Pat Gillick destroyed the Mariners for years to come. Nothing is going to change with the Mariners until Lincoln is gone. Nothing is going to change with the Sonics until Walker is gone.
I don’t see either of those things happening until the owners of both of those franchises looks closely at what the Seahawks have accomplished and makes the same organizational changes that Paul Allen finally did with his team. It’s not like the money isn’t there. It’s not like Seattle can’t support three teams at the same time the way it has supported them at different times alone.
Unlike the Mariners or the Sonics, Paul Allen learns from his mistakes. He cares just as much about winning as he does about making money. That’s the difference between Seattle’s professional sports franchises.
I feel like I’m preaching to the choir.
Re. #5:
With regards to fiscal conservatism, the Seattle Mariners don’t have to deal with a salary cap like the Seattle Supersonics; thus, the situations concerning the M’s and the ‘sonics aren’t wholly comparable with each other.
Still, the decision to go after players like Scott Spezio and McIlvane, Calvin Booth and Jeff Cirillo… shall I continue? We say the Mariners don’t have a cap, but they do. The Sonics would have a cap even if they didn’t. Nobody wants to lose money, which is why the Mariners never overspend. The problem with both franchises is that they have idiots that are okaying moves like Carl Everett and the move the Sonics will make this offseason.
Dave says it was because the Mariners wouldn’t give Selig the finger. Unfortunately, Mariner fans won’t remember that in 5 years when Miller is an ace for the Tigers and Morrow is pitching rehab in Tacoma.
That’s why the Tigers have turned their team around, and the Mariners have gone down the toilet the last few years.
When I say “they never overspend”, I’m referring to going over their budget, even if it means getting a player that will likely take them to the World Series (referring to win they were still winning). They’ll trade away their future (Varitek/Lowe), or overspend on contracts for single players (Washburn/Everett), but they never go over their budget. In fact, in recent years, they’ve come in under budget (Sasaki release, etc).
Again, preaching to the choir, so I’ll stop rambling…
I think it’s better said that they spend their money foolishly–wrong time, wrong amounts in the wrong areas.
and the other columnists all weigh in on not taking Lincecum Greg Johns, John Sleeper and McGrath
[i]Morrow’s odds of success were roughly akin to the chance of a home run by Adrian Beltre.[/i]
That’s 2 pot-shots in one.
Unfortunately, Mariner fans won’t remember that in 5 years when Miller is an ace for the Tigers and Morrow is pitching rehab in Tacoma.
Or when Miller is pitching rehab in Toledo while Morrow is the ace of our staff.
Oh, was I not allowed to make utterly unwarranted speculative claims too? My bad.