This and that
Dave · June 21, 2006 at 5:29 am · Filed Under Mariners
A few random comments on things going on.
- 1. Jeff Clement is being activated from the DL and assigned to Tacoma today. The M’s continue to push their prospects through the system very aggressively. Rob Johnson will likely head to San Antonio once he returns from dealing with his family issues. If you needed another reason to go watch the Rainiers, now you have one.
- 2. The Everett Aquasox have begun their season with a couple of wins over Tri-Cities. Last night saw the system debut of Steve Uhlmansiek, who is still recovering from the TJ surgery he had at the end of his college career. He pitched exceptionally well, but reports indicate that his stuff isn’t all the way back yet. Good to see him on the hill and getting outs, though.
- 3. Speaking of the Aquasox, you really should go watch them play. It’s a good value, a cool place to watch a game, and they have some interesting young talent. Get thee to Everett.
- 4. Adrian Beltre, in June; .278/.342/.556. 10 of his 20 hits have gone for extra bases. I’m certainly not jumping on the “he’s back!” bandwagon after such a small sample, but just for comparison, he had only nine extra base hits in April and May combined. The nicest thing about his current success is that it’s not based on balls finding holes – he’s legitimately hitting the crap out of the ball. Let’s hope some form of this continues, because Good Adrian replacing Holy Crap You Suck Adrian in the line-up would be an amazing upgrade.
- 5. The Mariners have a +9 run differential. The A’s have a +5 run differential. While the rest of the world is convinced the A’s are better than the Mariners, I am not.
- 6. There are some lights out relievers in the American League right now. The Fielding Independant ERA for B.J. Ryan, J.J. Putz, Jon Papelbon, and Joe Nathan, in order; 1.34, 1.52, 1.60, 1.64. Papelbon is the only one of the three not averaging 13 K/G or more.
- 7. The Mariners defense, per the Hardball Times, is +18 on groundballs and -9 on flyballs. The M’s infield is, without a doubt, the strength of the defense. If the team is going to add another arm to the rotation at any point this year, they should emphasize GB rate. Jason Johnson would be a perfect fit at the back of the M’s rotation.
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I didn’t want to put this in the post and make it seem like I’m shooting down the optimism that Adrian is trying to create, but his June line looks almost exactly like his August line from last year, when he hit .288/.342/.538, and 14 of his 30 hits went for extra bases. He then hit .226/.297/.330 in September to close the year with a whimper.
So, while I’m thrilled to see him hitting well, he needs to sustain this for at least another month, maybe longer, before we begin to think that he’s not going to revert back into his pumpkin form.
Right now, it’s a hot stretch. Let’s hope it becomes more than that.
I’m crossin’ my fingers on Beltre, Dave. But man oh man has he been abysmal up till recently. It’s tough to get excited about him at this point. Plus, my therapist wouldn’t know what to do if I came in and didn’t complain about Adrian first thing through the door.
By the way, I’ve read where everyone blames Ibanez for the poor outfield defense, but isn’t it time we start to look in Reed’s direction as well? His Rate over on BP is a mere 89, and while I recognize you dislike BP’s defensive rankings, I think it’s at least worth mentioning. The possibility is that we are now not only getting very little from him offensively, but defensively as well. That blows.
Lastly, since you mention the M’s being so aggressive in their promotions, what’s the earliest we could hope to see a guy like Morrow help out the big club? ‘08? Or could he progress quickly to the point where he could be up by August/September of next year? Oh, and have you done your Morrow post yet? I’m curious as to what your detailed thoughts on him are.
I’d say Reed is average defensively in center. Ichiro is above average. That means that Ibanez and Bloomquist (when he plays center) must be just awful.
I’m with you on not being willing to give up yet. If the Yankees had lost last night, they’d be three games out and I don’t think any NY fan would have said that it’s time to throw in the towel. I’d rather be up 3 1/2 than down that, but this is far from a hopeless place to be on the solstice.
I felt, watching Beltre live a few times in May, that his problem by then wasn’t the slump but that he was unlucky. He’d line straight to a fielder or fail to find the gap. So, it seemed to me, it was only a matter of time before he started squirting some balls through.
It appears that’s happening.
I see that the Indians have designated Jason Johnson for assignment. Any chance that the M’s pick him up?
“The M’s continue to push their prospects through the system very aggressively.”
I wasn’t clear on if you thought that was a negative thing. Are they giving them time enough to develop?
Beltre just seems like he is pressing less at the plate. Also, in the different spot in the line up, maybe he benefits from pitchers having to pitch him differently? I am certainly not ready to say that the league can’t make an adjustment. I’ll take this Adrian over his evil twin any day. Fingers-crossed.
By the way, in relation to #5, no one has thanked me yet for what the Rockies have been doing to the A’s. I can’t disclose all the details of my activities, but you’d be surprised what you can do to opposing hitters with small shiny mirrors in the outfield and some well-placed irritant powders in the ol’ equipment.
No promises on Zito today.
I agree with #3’s assessment of the outfielders. Fortunately, the M’s have and will face a long string of righties, keeping Bloomquist on the bench or subbing for a hurt Lopez.
Well, Shapiro has claimed to already receive a few trade offers for Johnson. So we’ll see what he ends up going for, but it will probably be at least slightly more than nothing. Unless, he’s just trying to talk Johnson up some.
We should get Johnson and if it takes slighly more than nothing to get him, then so be it. For reasons discussed yesterday in another thread, he’d be a good fit for the Safe. No matter what, he’s not going to break our bank.
Oh, I agree we should make a play for him. In front of our infield I think he’d be a nice match. However a lot of people yesterday were saying to just wait and pick him up on waivers after 10 days (no not Dave, but other people) I’m saying that is probably not an option.
I find it really intersting that the M’s defense has moved from leaning heavily on the outfield in the Winn/Cameron/Ichiro days to being weak there and strong on the interior. You’d think for Safeco outfield defense would be enough of a priority they’d keep Ibanez out of left.
DMZ- but how can you keep that lefty bat of C-Rex out of the lineup?
(In my case, it’d be easy…but since he’s a Proven Veteran, he’s going to have to flub for about 3 months for the to figure that out. The good news is he’s 2 months into those 3 months of flailing uselessly…)
Yeah, until Doyle is seen to be ready to take that spot (and, better, is healthy there and at the plate for long enough that at least some of us don’t have our fingers crossed whenever he appears to be starting to move) I wouldn’t really expect them to put Ibanez anywhere but out there.
RE 12
I think that really that shows they don’t care too much about defense. If they get it along with the offense they after then so be it.
It just happens that they got some defense with the infielders that they have signed. Beltre, Sexson, and Lopez were not acquired/brought along for their gloves. Betancourt doesn’t exactly help my case I must admit, although he hasn’t been a blackhole by any means, a walk once in a while would be nice though!
From the Plain Dealer (that’s Cleveland’s newspaper, if you’re wondering):
I believe Shapiro. And those looking for a cheap upgrade for Meche and/or Piñeiro should keep the “state of pitching” in mind.
So how do people judge Sexson’s defense? Baseball Prospectus rated it 19 in 2003, stellar. Then -5 last year, pretty bad, even as he rebounded from the injury to be a strong hitter. Where do people rate it now, and why the drop?
Do we really want Doyle patrolling left though? Since he’s had a lot of problems with his knees it would make sense to keep him as a DH.
Looking at Beltre’s career splits, that’s kind of what he’s always done in June though. It’s better so far this year than it has been past years, but his June and September are usually pretty close (and his July is worse) August is his killer month (particularly for HRs):
April .275 / .337 / .434
May .238 / .280 / .371
June .274 / .336 / .460
July .262 / .310 / .458
August .303 / .356 / .538
September .272 / .349 / .446
Extra-base hits spike up in June-July-August.
The Giants’ announcers noted the other day that Beltre was driving the ball to right center “which is where he had so much success during his monster year in 2004.”
I wonder if he is finally getting his timing back or something… and that is allowing him to connect with the ball for power in the middle of his swing instead of being out in front of it and pulling the ball.
Is this a real change in hit placement or is it just something the announcers noticed?
In Beltre’s hot month last year, I don’t recall him hitting the ball so well to the opposite field. I suspect something’s different about his approach.
Whether that difference will matter next month, who knows?
With Beltre, we are just going to have to wait and see. He has been so bad with us for such a consistant period, it is hard to believe its more than just a streak untill he carries for more than a month. Getting Beltre to hit would be pretty big for this team.
Getting Johnson would be a very nice move, and would allow the FO to make some additional moves without worrying about who to replace in the rotation. Might it be too much to ask?
Pineiro for Johnson. Would the Indians take that trade?
Maybe Dodger Stadium will really help Beltre. Maybe getting back to an environment that provokes that memory of success would do some good for him. All he’s got in Seattle is 1 1/2 years of disappointment. I’d have to imagine that’s difficult. But getting back to where he experienced that success, seeing the sights and hopefully remembering how he felt, that could be a mental kick-start.
Brian – Don’t see why they would want Pineiro. Sounds like they are trying to free up some roster space. Picking up another SP with a higher salary wouldn’t make sense. I think a lot of the Pineiro for Johnson talk was more “would you rather have Johnson or Pineiro” and was translaed as a trade. Personally, I like the idea of putting Pineiro in the pen, and moving Mateo/Woods/etc…
Back in January or so, there were people suggesting that the Mariners use a 6 man rotation…to help save the King’s arm, Jamie pitching less (but more in Safeco), and etc… with the “state of pitching” being what it is, picking up Johnson seems like it should be a no-brainer for the M’s (even though it is M’s management), but does anyone think the M’s have the courage / thought process to even consider a 6 man rotation…especially seeing what Meche did on 6 days rest?
#16: That story reads like it was written by Bob Finnigan. What the hell does won-loss record have to do with pitching ability?
#23: Shapiro’s much smarter than that.
#12: The interesting paradox is that the more you load your pitching staff with worm-burn-inducers, the more you can afford to keep Ibanez out there in left. Do you think the M’s front office makes that casual connection at all?
23.
I hope they don’t. Pineiro, as much as he’s loathed around here, is the better pitcher.
I agree about Beltre having a bit of bad luck. He’s been called out a few times in the past weeks on what clearly appeared to be infield hits.
More “state of pitching”: The Dodgers are contending with ex-Mariner castoffs Sele and Tomko in their starting rotation.
OK, so Johnson has value and Shapiro thinks other teams perceive that value. What are Shapiro’s needs, big-club-wise or prospect-wise, and what have the M’s got to meet them?
Anyone have any insight as to whether the M’s front office is interested in acquiring Johnson? I’m persuaded that he’s worth pursuing, but it’s all pretty academic if the team doesn’t like him as a player.
#29: Sele has already had his once-around-the-league free pass.
Last two outings:
8 IP, 13 hits, 6 ER, 8 walks, 0 Ks, 12 GBs, 18 FBs.
He has 140 career wins. But 150 might as well be on the dark side of the moon.
#30: I’ve seen nothing that persuades me that the M’s are smart enough to see past Johnson’s W-L record and ERA to his actual multitude of virtues.
32 – Thanks, Jim. That’s kind of what I expected. I mean, we had a chance at Johnson last offseason and chose Washburn for a lot more money. End of story.
Why are they assigning Clement to Tacoma? If he was in San Antonio before the surgeries, what could he have done to earn a promotion while recovering from surgery?
It would seem to me it would make more sense to at least send him back to where he was for a little while to get his timing back before they promoted him.
All that being said, I’m thrilled to see him in the NW, and one step closer to Seattle!
I wonder if he is finally getting his timing back or something… and that is allowing him to connect with the ball for power in the middle of his swing instead of being out in front of it and pulling the ball.
A couple of weeks ago on the post game show, Beltre said something to the effect that hitting second was helping him because he could concentrate on putting the ball in play, whereas hitting lower he had to swing harder.
If that’s really his approach, it provides a clue to both the problem and why he’s doing better. It seems like Pentland has not been able to convince Beltre that if he just hits the damn ball good things will happen.
I’m not totally convinced that moving to #2 is the reason for Beltre’s resurgence, because he seemed to be starting to come out of his slump before the move, but given how much better he’s hitting I’m sure he’s going to be hitting second for a long time now. Which is OK with me if he’s producing there.
#35: It could reflect some dissatisfaction with Johjimam. The organization may be hoping that Clement will be ready sooner than later so Johjima can be dealt while he still has perceived value that matches his salary.
oops, #34.
He can pray to Jobu if it makes him feel comfortable! Whatever it takes is fine with me if he keeps producing!
I’m totally guessing here, but I assume Clement will be able to bat before he’ll be able to squat and take pitches. And everybody seemed to think his batting was ahead of his other skills (or am I misremembering?) So if all he can do is DH, it makes sense to let him do it against AAA pitching and see how he does. He can probably learn a bit from sitting with the Rainiers pitchers and pitching coach and talking tactics too.
That was my first though, too, Jim. That it’s much more to do with Johjima than it is to do with anything Clement has done to earn a promotion. It would be interesting to find out how much of the FO’s dissatisfaction is related to his handling of pitchers and how much is related to his bat.
The stories about pitchers’ dissatisfaction with Johjima’s pitch-calling — valid or not — seem to be growing legs. At some point you have to wonder how seriously the Mariners take them.
#36: DO you think there’s some real dissatisfaction with him in the FO?
Let’s see, .271 AVG, .321 OBP, .398 SLG, and according to the M’s website only 5 passed balls (although he seems to struggle blocking balls IMO). There have been some rumblings about how he calls the game.
I think Kenji has done well (considering this is his first year over here), but I would love to see him split time with Clement IF he’s ready. Heck, if Clement’s ready, sell high on Johjima!
He can probably learn a bit from sitting with the Rainiers pitchers and pitching coach and talking tactics too.
I agree with this and I’m sure many others also see the wisdom in such a thought process.
Which leads me to believe that forethought on the part of the FO has nothing to do with the move.
so says the skeptic.
Sounds like everyone is thinking along the same lines here. I’m just glad it’s not the same catching carousel (sp?) as last year!
#39: Wasn’t it Hargrove that said “give me a lawn chair and a glass of tea, and I could watch that kid hit all day long” during ST?
Looks like Boston already picked up Johnson…
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5715860
No, really, they want to push guys through the system fast. I and a bunch of USSM folks HEARD that from Bavasi’s lips in April.
Clement in Tacoma? Sure, why not? Worst case, you end up with an interesting dilemma that might turn out in your favor (see: Pierzynski/Mauer). But I suspect, since he’s had maybe 200 plate appearances in pro ball, he’s a pretty good candidate to spend 2007 in AAA.
You can forget Johnson, he’s reportedly been traded to Boston. For Cash.
Pineiro, as much as he’s loathed around here, is the better pitcher.
Uh, based on what? Piñeiro’s been awful to mediocre since his arm problems, and his 94-96 good heat seems like it’s toast- he spends an awful lot of time throwing 88-90.
If we could get anything like the Pierzynski deal for Johjima, trade him TODAY!
And we would have gotten away with Johnson if it wasn’t for that meddling Epstein kid!
This is why Boston wins. They’re the fastest, shrewdest, Dumpster-divingest mofos in baseball.
If we could get anything like the Pierzynski deal for Johjima, trade him TODAY!
You don’t see deals like that very often (see Slocumb, Heathcliff).
Please don’t remind me about Slocumb! Wasn’t that the Varitek/Lowe deal?
I wonder if there is an element of chauvinism in play with Johjima. There seems to be a belief that Johjima needs to learn “how to call in a game in MLB” and that what he learned about pitch sequences and setting up hitters in Japan is not that relevant to North America. There appears to be a priori disregard that MLB might be able to learn something from Japanese player, particularly from a catcher who should be more heavily involved in setting the action on the field.
This would tie directly into the Mariners notion that Felix can’t be successful until he first establishes his fastball, even though the FB is his #3 weakest pitch right now.
Anything Johjima does is still a huge improvement over the 7-headed catcher monster of last season.
#2 and #3:
I’ve thought, based on his skill set, that there is a good chance that Reed will be out of baseball in two years. It is also possible that he would be a 4th outfielder somewhere.
I really don’t see an average fielding, no-power .250 hitter, sticking as a starting outfielder.
A hundred points more of slugging — and OPS — in June this year is substantially more than what he’s “always done”.
Anyway, Beltre’s career is all over the map: started good, down years, great year, another down year. It doesn’t seem to me that his career stats by month are likely to tell us anything useful; it’s most likely laying a false organization over a mess. If you listed all his months from every year, I bet they would be just as all over the map as his career as a whole is.
Sure, if he were 28 rather than 25.
And the evidence to date has been that Reed is a substantially better than average fielder. He must hit better if he’s going to have a career; maybe he won’t, but there’s still good reason to think he will. Talented players have struggled longer to establish themselves, and the Mariners have no good reason to give up on Reed yet, considering the alternatives.
This Jason Johnson thing really pisses me off. Why didn’t Bill Bavasi see the opportunity for what it was and act accordingly — and swiftly? This is partly why Theo Epstein is considered a “genius” — he assesses and acts while other GMs are still straightening their ties, diddling around on their Blackberries or sipping Starbucks with their scouting directors.
#59: I didn’t say they should give up on him. Like you, I recognize they have no better alternative right now, so why not keep playing him this year and see if he can develop.
I am saying that I am not optimistic about his future.
Regarding his fielding, is he really better than average? Is this year an aberration and he is really a better fielder than he has been so far this year?
You have to give Reed consistent playing time before you can really read anything into his numbers.
When a guy sits on the bench for most of the games, everything will suffer from his bat to his glove.
Stop with the Johnson virtues spiel already-it greatly exaggerates his impact….his only virtue right now is that he’s different…. Seattle wouldn’t magically transform him and he isn’t any dramatic upgrade over the reinvented Pineiro….
Sure an extreme ground ball pitcher would be a smart prototype to acquire but Johnson has too many ugly peripherals to simply say he’s a no brainer, obvious upgrade…. A GOOD extreme groundball pitcher is what the M’s need. I love hyperbole (mix hyperbole and alliteration and I’ll buy your book even)-but only when used correctly. Boston is desperate. The M’s really don’t have to be on this issue.
#62: How can you say that Reed has sat on the bench for most of the games?
He’s played in 56 games this season. Out of 72 games. That’s 78% of the games.
He played in 141 games last season.
He’s PLAYED in 56 games, but he’s only started a portion of those.
And his hitting and defense were better last year when he started most of those 141 games.
#65: Really? Do you know how many games he came in as a sub?
He’s averaging over 3 plate appearances per game played.
#66: Not that much better. His OPS last year was .674. His OPS this year is .650. Close enough to easily be random variation to account for the difference.
On the outfield defense….is the team any worse off just playing Bloomquist in left and Ibanez at DH every day than they are with C-Whiff DH-ing and The Statue of Mighty Ibanez in left?
Bloomquist’s OPS = 627
Brontocarl’s OPS = 694
With Bloomy’s ability to play left respectably and his speed on the bases, I think the net result would be an improvement. Of course you lose Bloomy off the bench.
Optimally you would make a deal in the offseason for a real LF who can hit. Just like last offseason. Simmer.
#69, but remember that Grover thought that Carl was the best available DH out there.
#69 – no solution (to any problem – except maybe how best to get the bees in the U.S.S. Mariner hive buzzing angrily) begins with playing Willie everyday. They should simply sit Carl (or have him come off the bench), move Ibanez to DH and bring in a good LF. Eddie and Mateo (throw Carl or Clint in too!) plus some cash would make a bottom-dweller think for a moment. I don’t think we do it if we lose a serious prospect, but we could probably put something together. I don’t think Carl Everett at DH and Raul’s defense is the reason for our run of good games.
#67 From a rough glance at his game logs it looks like Reed played in 10 games that he didn’t start.
Thus he’s only started 46 of the 72 games the M’s have played. Now his starting percentage is down to 64%.
#71 The bench is already willing to take Everett and I think we should oblige.
terry, I don’t think people believe that Johnson would have been the answer to the M’s season. However, they could have increased trade flexability by bringing him to the organization. This would have allowed the team to aggresivly package Pineiro or Meche in a trade, without damaging the rotation (as many have said, there are no reasonable replacements currently in the organization). It is forward thinking by the FO, not the belief that Jason would become Randy.
And the evidence to date has been that Reed is a substantially better than average fielder.
Remember there was a great deal of hesitation to starting him in CF originally. He had always been considered an average-fielding LF. In 2005, he was great. In 2006, not so much. It is one of the old baseball axioms that ‘defense doesn’t slump’ so how do you reconcile the great-CF-Reed with the Poor-CF-Reed just one year later? I don’t know, but if there’s one season that looks like an outlier, it’s 2005, not 2006.
Against RHP, Everett has an OPS this year of 742. From 2003 to 2005 his OPS batting left was 824. OK, he’s been terrible lately but I expect him to be better being used as a platoon DH the rest of the year.
The uncertainty is whether he’s been terrible lately because he’s sulking. His comments the other day suggest that’s possible. He wants to play in the field and he can’t be happy about platooning. You’d have to be around him in the clubhouse to know if that’s why he’s slumping.
Right now Morse is DH’ing against LHP, so dumping Everett or moving him to the bench in favor of Bloomquist in LF would mean adding Bloomquist to the lineup against RHP.
This year Bloomquist has a line of 184/241/204 against RHP. Prior to this season his line against RHP was 247/289/314. You can’t possibly start him against RHP.
I’m not defending C-Rex but the difference in offense against RHP between Everett and Bloomquist is huge.
Instead of talking about putting Bloomquist in LF we should be talking about how soon they will be putting Doyle in LF. We know Doyle can hit RHP.
Apologies to Mel Gibson’s William Wallace, but re: Doyle I can only say, “FREEDOM!”
You all have very good points regarding Reed.
I guess my issue is that unless you’ve never thought Reed has the skills to play full time, why did you get him in trade?
Or, if you DO think he has the skills, why not let him play and develop, rather than “platooning” him?
Should be: “If you never thought Reed had the skills to play full time”, sorry!
#78 – ’cause Willie is the energizer bunny! Rizzs tells us so every stinkin’ night.
Why can’t a decent bench player who can sub in many positions be just that. A good utility player (who can steal you a base and is a decent pinch runner too!). Why is he made out to be the next coming of Bugs Bunny in “Baseball Bugs?” I don’t have time (or privacy enough) to listen to KJR at work, but is average Joe Fan really as taken with the guy as our announcers? I mean c’mon!
Regarding the old idea that “defense doesn’t slump”: I gather that the statistical evidence, such as it is, doesn’t support that idea; defense seems to vary a great deal from year to year for most players.
And why shouldn’t it? Why wouldn’t fielding slump like pitching and hitting do? I suspect the only reason people said it didn’t is because we couldn’t measure it.
how do you reconcile the great-CF-Reed with the Poor-CF-Reed just one year later?
Could it be that Raul is in left rather than Winn? We all know that Raul has poor range. If Reed has to compensate by shading more to the left side, he could be getting to less balls now than he would have with a better left fielder there. I’ve never thought Reed was a GG quality center fielder. But he is adequate. He’s definately better than what alot of teams are throwing out there.
I have an unusual question for Dave:
If the timers are correct on this thing, you posted this piece (and subsequent info on Jeff Clement) at 5:29 AM this morning but some of the other people on the ‘net were reporting it well before that but attributing it to you. Was that intentional or did some other people just irritate the hell out of you by “reporting” what you told them in confidence?
Merely curious.
Between WFB and Chone “I spell my name funny ” Figgins, I’m sick of hearing about utility guys! Ryan Freel is starting to get annoying too. If any of you were that great, you’d have a full time position!
#76. Good points. Bloomy’s numbers are inflated since over half his AB’s have come against LHP (for a respectable OPS of .783). But that suggests to me that a platoon of Morse and Bloomy in left is in order. Is Morse worse than Ibanez at that position? I haven’t seen him play OF this year.
#84 – It is helpful to have a guy who can play most infield and outfield positions – as long as you don’t try to start him regularly in a platoon or otherwise.
I think starting Willie like they have been diminishes his ability in what he actually can do – come in and play for an injured guy for short stretches, pinch run, take over in the field when a real hitter pinch hits but doesn’t play the position of the player he was hitting for, sub for a guy who needs a day off, come in for the late innings of an extra inning game, etc. He’s supposed to give you depth, but if you start him regularly, he eats up the bench spot, you have no utility guy, and then you have to keep him in there when he’s having a bad game because there’s no body else left on the bench!
With Lopez reportedly unable to take hard swings, seems like Willie would be a good choice to sub a few games. A good utility player used in such a way that he limits flexibility is pretty much a waste.
Chone “I spell my name funny” Figgins
My girlfriend HATES Chone Figgins, mostly because of his name.
And somehow, everytime I turn on a sportscast or Mariners game, the first thing the commentator does is refer to Chone Figgins, causing her to cry out in anguish and leave the room.
Wait, how else are you supposed to spell Chone Figgins?
#55– There seems to be a belief that Johjima needs to learn “how to call in a game in MLB†and that what he learned about pitch sequences and setting up hitters in Japan is not that relevant to North America. There appears to be a priori disregard that MLB might be able to learn something from Japanese player, particularly from a catcher who should be more heavily involved in setting the action on the field.
do you mean this belief is in the FO? the outside world? amongst the pitchers?
when you say “able to learn something from Japanese player, particularly from a catcher who should be more heavily involved in setting the action on the field” are you implying that Johjima should be doing more on the field, or that some think he should be?
Because as I understand it, what he does now in the field is a managerial choice– the word when he came over was that in Japan he was accustomed to call pitches, as well as set up the defensive alignment
I think it’s pronounced like “Sean”…or “Shawn” if you prefer.
Where can I find this data on the Hardball Times website? How are these numbers calculated, and what do they represent? Runs?
Same thing with my girlfriend! Gets her every time! (Dennis Leary does a great bit on spelling vs pronounciation)
90 – But years from now, someone will be trolling through Retrosheet and will think his name is phonetic.
Because there’s simply no reason to spell Sean like that.
sez Evan, who’s name was originally spelt Ifan
well, after yesterday’s cover story on Beltre, the USA Today puts Ichiro! and the Mariners there today.
#86: I don’t have anything against the utility players. In fact, I have a huge amount of respect for what they do. They have to be prepared and able to play anywhere, at anytime, and that must be tough!
What gets me is when you get Rizz sporting wood in the booth over WFB, and claiming he should start every day. There’s a reason the M’s turned him into a utility guy.
He should NOT be starting, and he isn’t the savior of the team because of his “hustle”. He is a guy that gets by in the majors because he works his butt off to make up for the top-ends skills he lacks (I say top-end, because he has far more baseball skill than most people in the world, or at least me!).
He should be used exactly how you stated in your post.
Wow, I’m angry today… Must have something to do with fighting with installing our new DSL modem all morning..
#93, my wife loves Irish names (and is Irish – I am too once a year). I love to give her crap about the Old Irish names:
Caoilte = (KWEEL-te), really?
Ciaran = (KEER-an), ok . .
Siobhán = (shuh-VAHN), oh I give up.
The problem is that the kid pays the price and gets made fun of in school and on blogs.
You can be Irish, and still have a somewhat normal name, like Daniel Bryn..
#74: ‘06 JJ is a dramatic downgrade from ‘06 Meche, so scraping the goo that is JJ from the Indians windshield wouldn’t have allowed the M’s to package Meche….
Pineiro=JJ so why would you assume Pineiro has any trade value (especially with Joel’s contract). The M’s wouldnt have gotten significantly better by trading JJ for Pineiro and getting rid of Pineiro almost certainly means eating money. Where’s the benefit?
The whole JJ idea was just a bad one.
99 – It wasn’t until the second time I read your post that I realized when you referred to “JJ” you were talking about Jason Johnson and not J.J. Putz. I was trying to figure out how J.J. is a downgrade from Meche.
#100: I had to read it twice as well, kind of freaked me out actually!
# 85 Morse and WFB both hit right handed….. The reason for a platoon is to have a lefty righty combo….
#102: Yet another reason to “Free Doyle!” as soon as he is ready!
#5
I’m glad to hear someone else echo the: “Beltre isn’t just bad, he’s also really unlucky,” sentiment. I’ve been pained by the number of gappers and long drives that surprisingly find gloves.
I caught an Ms/Devil Rays matchup a little over a month back. At the game, the Ms fan I was with said something to the effect of: “Jeremy Reed and Adrian Beltre must have the worst luck of any players I’ve seen.” Beltre immediately responded with a 404 foot rocket… that Joey Gathright pulled down with a leaping catch at the 405 foot sign.
Beltre seems to hit the ball very hard, and still get out, more than most players..
#49
Uh, based on performance. Based on age. Based on stats. Hisotry. Take your pick. Is this really up for discussion? It’s a moot point now, but how could you see more value in a shlub like Johnson (always has been) and Pineiro has at least shown promise and perfomed well at times.
*History.
JJ = Johnson wasn’t supposed to be an upgrade to Pineiro but rather a relatively cheap option that could add some flexibility to our existing rotation and seems to be well suited to our strong defensive play.
Everybody and his brother knows we overpayed for Meche and Pineiro. I don’t see any smart GM’s trading anything for them this year or ever.
97 – Irish names.
And you didnt even get to Damhnait.
DAV-net
Boston picks up Johnson, and last week they picked up a pitcher on waivers from Kansas City! If they are that desperate what about the M’s offering them Washburne, Meche, or Pinerio? Yahoo sports has an article about the lack of available pitching, and the desire of many contending clubs to add pitching.
ESPN is reporting that J Johnson has been traded to the Red Sox.
Boston has been in a bind with pitching all year due to David Wells, haven’t they?
Boston’s probably wishing they still had Arroyo at this point!
The Red Sox might be desperate, but they’re not stupid. They grabbed Johnson for the same reason Dave wanted us to grab Johnson – he’s a groundball pitcher.
Exactly.. Question:
Fenway + Ryan Franklin = ??
If the timers are correct on this thing, you posted this piece (and subsequent info on Jeff Clement) at 5:29 AM this morning but some of the other people on the ‘net were reporting it well before that but attributing it to you. Was that intentional or did some other people just irritate the hell out of you by “reporting†what you told them in confidence?
I told Churchill about the Clement thing last night – he decided to credit me on his own, which was fine. I would have been fine with him just putting it up without mentioning me as well.
A few years ago, I was “breaking news” left and right about promotions, trades, that kind of stuff. USSM was first on just about every transaction the M’s made. And I hated it. I felt the need to be a near a computer all the time, answer my phone constantly, and generally have no time away from the blog.
So, as you’ve noticed, I don’t really break anything anymore. It’s not that I’m getting less information – I just don’t care to be the guy who is first with every story. So, when I get something like Clement’s promotion and I’m given the okay to put it out there, I might toss it to someone else (like Churchill) and let him run with it.
Just a personal decision I made. No worries.
Where can I find this data on the Hardball Times website? How are these numbers calculated, and what do they represent? Runs?
Click on teams. The numbers are on that page.
The numbers are based on John Dewan’s +/- system, which is explained in detail in The Fielding Bible. It’s number of plays made above or below expected, not converted to runs. So, essentially, the number says that the M’s have turned 18 groundballs into outs that they weren’t expected to, based on historical data. That could be converted into runs using a run value chart pretty easily, but Dewan never made that leap.
It’s not a perfect system, but it’s pretty darn good, especially at the team level.
115:
Fenway + Ryan Franklin = Greatest HACKING MASS all-star of all time.
Dave, what’s the deal with the catcher roulette in the minor leagues right now? It seems like every catcher in the organization has moved in the last month.
#106:
The point is that Jason Johnson, at $2.2 million (what he’s still owed this year) would have been far better than Joel Pineiro, who’s still owed about twice as a much this year. Johnson would be a far better pitcher in Safeco, period, given the park’s dimensions and the team’s superior infield defense. And Pineiro doesn’t have any top-flight “stuff” any more. At this point in his career, Pineiro is a junkballer like Johnson — minus the extreme groundball tendencies.
Johnson, head to head, is better than Pineiro right now.
At about half the cost, replacing Pineiro with Johnson would be a no-brainer.
#117: Dave, is The Hardball Times also the best source for up-to-date xFIP numbers, or do you get that elsewhere?
Speaking of the Rainiers, any thoughts about why Snelling is getting playing time in center? Can he really handle the position? I’d thought he was poor there when his knees were intact. Also, I see they’ve added Bryan LaHair to Tacoma, as well. Dave, do you know anything about him?
Dave, what’s the deal with the catcher roulette in the minor leagues right now? It seems like every catcher in the organization has moved in the last month.
Rob Johnson’s been dealing with family issues. Quiroz has had some non-baseball related stuff as well.
118: Correct! You get an “A” for the day! I’m trying to think of what combination of pitcher + home park would be worse than that, but I can’t come up with anything off the top of my head.
#117: Dave, is The Hardball Times also the best source for up-to-date xFIP numbers, or do you get that elsewhere?
It’s the only place I know of that publishes the data.
Speaking of the Rainiers, any thoughts about why Snelling is getting playing time in center? Can he really handle the position? I’d thought he was poor there when his knees were intact. Also, I see they’ve added Bryan LaHair to Tacoma, as well. Dave, do you know anything about him?
The M’s love versatility. They always move players around to try to keep them away from the mindset that they’re “just an LF” or “strictly a 2B” or whatever.
And LaHair’s probably a AAAA guy. Decent stroke, not enough power.
Could that be the reason that Clement is being assigned to Tacoma? Not so much a promotion, but because they need a catcher until Johnson is back?
Quiroz is starting at catcher tonight, Clement is DH’ing. So I’m going with no.
I can only think of one reason they’re trying Snelling in CF in Tacoma. His first name starts with “Jer” and his last name ends in “eed”.
We have too many AAAA guys, and not enough real prospects. No wonder they’re trying to rush them through the system!
Do we have any legitimate power hitters anywhere in the minors?
Doyle never struck me as a great fielder, just okay. Better suited to the corners. Am I missing something here? Besides the basic versatility idea that Dave mentioned earlier.
Besides, I want him running as little as possible in the field! And don’t throw up any late “stop” signs on the basepaths either!
Doyle was quite a good fielder, and one I thought wholly capable of holding his own in CF.
But that was like 7 surgeries ago.
With all these injuries, I would think he has no more business in CF than Junior Griffey does. Oh, wait a second….
I never got a chance to see Doyle play before all the knee injuries. Wish I had!
Doyle needed surgery to get out of the womb…not sure if it was knee surgery though
Jim, I think it’s a bit of an exagerration to say Johnson “would” be “far” better than Piñeiro. You can say he “might” be “somewhat” better (with the M’s infield behind him), but that’s about it. The only statistical category in which he dramatically differs from Piñeiro is GB/FB ratio, and that might not help much if he can no longer miss bats. His K and BB rates bear a resemblance to Piñeiro’s post-injury trend.
Do not mistake Epstein’s desperation for brilliance. His previous attempt to plug the back of the BoSox rotation was a KC castoff.
Who was the doctor present at his birth, and did he throw up a stop sign just as he was “heading home”?
#120: First, youre assuming you’d get Johnson for half the price of Joel which of course would not happen…the M’s most likely will eat part of Joel’s salary if they decide to cut bait….
Second, the *new* Joel, the junkballer, is an extreme groundball pitcher too..
Third, Johnson doesnt have any *stuff* either….
At best it would have been a change just for the sake of it which after the dust settled would probably have cost the M’s money.
I dont see the point. Certainly the difference wouldn’t warrant chastising Bavasi for not making the move…in fact I’m arguing it’s to his credit…
Do we have any legitimate power hitters anywhere in the minors?
Jeff Clement. He’s got legit 30-homerun power. Beyond that it’s mostly just a gaggle of toolsy guys who don’t really profile as bigtime power hitters. I think Dave mentioned on draft day that what this club really needs right now is to pay a bit less attention to the toolsy guys and try and find an awesome hitter (he mentioned ‘Gar at the time). I’d sure as hell love to have a guy like Billy Butler-type hitter in our system — fielding be damned. I know plenty of you guys will go on about Snelling, but I count on him like I count on his injuries like I count on oxygen going into my lungs when I take in a breath. I love the guy, and he’ll probably have a year or two where he puts it all together for a good 400 at bats or so, but he’s essentially worthless as far as reliability in any given year.
You know, this is kind of a crazy thought, but for someone with Doyle’s problems CF might actually be easier on his legs than the corners. Yeah, CFs have to lay out sometimes, or throw themselves at the wall. But corner outfielders have to run hard and then stop to handle a ball carooming off the walls and out of the corners. And they have two walls to potentially slam into also. Now, I know Doyle could get hurt just taking off for a ball or belly-flopping into the grass, but he could do that in the corners too. It’s the sudden stopping that seems to be the risk, and there’s more of that in the corners I think.
Still, I’d rather have him in LF. If you put him in CF, do you “demote” Reed to LF? Or get rid of Reed and live with Raul? What kind of an upgrade is that? Putting him in left so Raul can make Carl a bench player is the right way to go.
Ugh. Sorry about the haphazard analogy in that last post. I’m on so much cold medicine right now I don’t even know which way is up. Go M’s!
The traditional thinking is that there are less hard stops playing center compared to the corner outfield spots. By stops I mean running into a corner, jamming on the brakes, picking up a ball and spinning around toward the infield. It’s less jarring on the knees in CF, supposedly.
Of course you have to do a heck of lot more running in CF especially if you play next to Raul
That actually makes a lot of sense. CF is more of a “cover a bunch of ground” type of running, where the corners do have quite a bit more stopping, twisting, and redirecting involved..
Still, as good a hitter as Doyle is, I’ve never seen him projected as a “power” hitter.
Still, I’d rather have him in LF. If you put him in CF, do you “demote†Reed to LF? Or get rid of Reed and live with Raul? What kind of an upgrade is that? Putting him in left so Raul can make Carl a bench player is the right way to go.
And here’s the real reason I could never get excited about Snelling right now. He OBVIOUSLY needs to be a DH, and yet no one (including Snelling) will admit it. Put him in the field? Are you serious?! He gets hurt when he runs to first base, much less fielding the ball. If you want to maximize the return on a player like Snelling, you have to give him the Edgar treatment and plug him into the DH slot for good. What sucks about that (and the reason Doyle is likely to hurt us even when he’s helping us) is that it puts a glove in Ibanez’ hand. And that’s scary, as per usual. Once this club (or another, smarter, club) recognizes this fact, we can finally start to get a return on Snelling. Too bad we signed Ibanez to that silly extension, though.
If Doyle is playing in the outfield in Tacoma (as I’ve seen in the box scores), we have to assume he can do the same in the big leagues.
Edgar didn’t get the DH-only “treatment” until he was much older. Heck, he didn’t even get a chance in the majors until he was much older, and then it was as a 3rd baseman.
Give the kid a shot, he’s still very young. He had some unlucky (freak) injuries, and sometimes a guy just gets hurt. It happens. Not everybody is Cal Ripken Jr.
Left, right, center . . . playing the outfield isn’t that risky. Running the bases is where the real risk lies. If his knee can handle baserunning, running around the outfield will be OK.
Sometimes bad luck is just bad luck, not a pattern. And if it’s just bad luck it provides no information about future tendencies.
I just hate seeing a player that is that young being shoe-horned into the “too fragile to play in the field” box.
[lol]
#145: Om, yeah, let’s see, Doyle has played twice now in the outfield for Tacoma up until they went on their last road trip. One time, he played LF for 5 innings, and then this last homestand, he played CF for a 7 inning complete game (1st game of a doubleheader). And, I might add, he didn’t even DH in the game before that, or 2 games after that.
But I didn’t check the recaps for the games while they were on the road. It is possible they’ve been playing him more but I’m doubting it. I’m just saying I don’t think there’s much cause to think they’re really pushing him much, or that a single appearance in CF means much.
BTW: Since there was a thread on managerial issues not that long ago, I feel it worthy of mention that one of the SABR Research presentations at the convention in Seattle next week is titled ‘Evaluating Managers: Which Men get the most and which get the least out of their players”. Yes, a plug for the convention, registration at the SABR website (129 for members, 189 for non-members).
The two knee injuries on the same leg do concern me a bit, but the wrist injuries don’t concern me at all. I’m not advocating that we plug him in as the final solution for CF and forget about it, I’m just saying we shouldn’t give up on him playing in the field entirely.
As much as I’d like to see him DH every day, I’m not sure he has as much power as I’d like from that spot in a perfect world.
And #150: I wasn’t intending to insinuate that Doyle is playing CF or LF every day, but he is rehabbing right now, so he has to work himself back in to shape. What I was trying to say is that the organization obviously hasn’t given up on him in the outfield if they are playing him there during his rehab.
Just like Clement, who is DH’ing tonight in Tacoma. You can’t expect him to catch every day during rehab, but they still want him to play catcher.
Of course, right after I posted, I checked tonight’s lineup, which has Snelling in CF again (he can’t DH, cuz that’s what Clement is doing).
Still, we’re only talking a handful of games that they’ve allowed him to PLAY instead of just DH.
Boston also could have had Halama for free, but (not surprisingly) opted for Johnson.
I’m out for the night, but I’ll end with this. Forget about injury history and all that stuff. All I know is that I would rather see anybody at DH instead of Everett getting enough AB’s to vest his option.
Thanks for the debates, and the answers to my questions. Go M’s!
Thank you Seattle, good night!
Johnson v Pineiro, pretty much the same guy, as far as I can tell, except that Pineiro is younger and paid more. Both are turning in seasons at the extremem low end of expectations. Joel strikes out a few more and walks a few more, Johnson gives up a ton more hits. Their career GB/FB rates are nearly identical.
Huh?! you say. Yes, indeed they are. Because early in his career, Johnson was a flyball machine, and mid-way, figured out how to keep the ball on the ground. Same sort of transition Joel has shown signs of making this year.
We’re unhappy with Bad Joel in the rotation. Johnson would not be an improvement, so he’s useless to us. He wouldn’t have given us any flexibility we didn’t already have. Picking up Johnson so we could trade Meche? You want a rotation with both Pineiro and Johnson in it?
I figure Pineiro has more chance of improvement this year than Johnson. Clearly Pineiro is undergoing a change in style and approach from “I wanna be like Clemens” to “Maybe more like Moyer”. Maybe it’ll work (Player of the Week and all that), maybe it won’t, but he’s got more upside that Johnson.
Doyle to first and Sexson to DH….. im a genius
It’s interesting to look at Johnson’s GB/FB ratio year by year over his career (beginning in 1998):
.69-.83-.92-1.09-1.18-1.31-1.68-1.74-2.85
It seems like he’s been figuring something out.
All his peripheral numbers have been pretty stable throughout until this year when his Opp. BA has jumped up to .341 and his HR’s are out. To me that looks like a lot of groundballs have been finding the holes this year and some flyballs have drifted out.
While Pineiro’s G/F is up some this year, his other peripherals have declined enormously. His K rate is way down, he’s throwing a ton of pitches per batter (4.00), and his walks are up. I don’t see much reason for optimism in that.
Yes, Pineiro could be figuring out a new style of pitching. But betting on guys to become the next Jamie Moyer when they lose their stuff is not a winning proposition.
Johnson’s HR’s are “up” this year, not “out”.
theyre both up AND out
Re: Beltre’s June, ‘05 : August, ‘06 Dave, that’s _exactly what I thought when I read the post. Adrian will have a ‘hot month’ here and there where he stings a bunch of line drives and ups his SLG; it’s his career pattern. His June isn’t evidence that ‘he’s getting better,’ it’s evidence that he’s exactly who he’s always been.
. . . That’s the problem.
June, ‘06 : August, ‘05
“Why are the sending Clement to Tacoma?”
Clement, right now, is a better hitter than two-thirds of the Ms non-pitchers on the 25-man, with more power. The Ms back-up catcher, Rivera couldn’t hit a pitch if he set up a roadblock; he’s useless beyond catch-and-throw (and you’re welcome to debate how useful’less he is even at that). Clement was set low in San Antone to work on his catching, but the Ms clearly want his bat up north as soon as possible. I had figured we’d see Clement in ‘07, but I’d say now it’s a good bet he’s here before September.
With Beltre and Sexson looking like three-legged turtles at the plate for most of this year, DH an open position, and CF just about the same, the Ms are going to need some real bats again when we get to the offseason. I have a feeling they want to see Jeff Clement get 70-80 ABs against Big League pitching by then to get a feel for what they’ve got and when they’ll get it.
#48: The Jason Johnson story gets better. The Red Sox aren’t exactly getting JJ for cash. Instead, they get Johnson and cash for a PTBNL or cash.
The Hartford Courant
reports that, “The Red Sox will pay a little more than half of the $2.5 million remaining on Johnson’s contract.”
Perhaps the time zones made all the difference. Bavasi could very well have been whacking on his snooze button while Epstein was putting together this deal for Boston.
and thank god he was if he was….