Calm down
Six days ago, the Mariners completed a sweep of the Diamondbacks, were over .500, and we were setting our sights on the Oakland A’s for first place in the AL West.
Five games later, everyone is apparently ready to jump overboard. Yes, it’s been an ugly homestand, but the team still leads the division in run differential are are exactly one game further out of first place than they were when everyone was excited. This team isn’t great, and not-great teams are going to have runs like this. It isn’t the end of the world.
Momentum is tomorrow’s starting pitcher. And we’ve got Jamie Moyer, in Safeco, tonight. That’s not a bad place to start ending this little skid.
Also, the collective “calm down” order apparently applies to Carl Everett too, as he went into Mike Hargrove’s office and started yelling due to his decreased playing time lately.
Seriously, the DH who is “hitting” .232/.307/.373 and has started every game at DH since interleague play ended is complaining about his playing time. He’s on pace for 516 at-bats in 157 games played, despite being completely useless to the team, and he’s complaining about playing time. Ridiculous.
But, you know what Carl, keep on yelling. Throw things. Have a fit. Maybe you’ll go and get yourself released, and then we can have an actual major league player occupy your roster spot.
The M’s continue to make public comments about improving the team for the stretch, and they’ve talked to different clubs about acquiring some more offense. If the team really wants to show they’re serious about winning, they’ll remove Carl Everett from the starting line-up permanently.
They made a serious error in judgment when they signed him, and it’s time they admitted it. Doyle could outhit Everett in his sleep, and the sooner the club just acknowledges that they can’t have a DH who can’t hit in the middle of the line-up, the better off this team will be.
So all the fans jumping off the bandwagon, calm down. Carl Everett, keep on yelling. Yell your way right out of town.
46 – No joke: the day after he went 0-3 Canseco has asked to be traded.
51: I saw that. Unbelievable!
51 – According to ESPN, its based on the fact that he is having custody issues and didn’t think he would be out of LA as much as he is scheduled to be.
I totally understand that this team is good enough to win the division, and I’m not panicking because of the last few games. But I am wondering if they are good enough to overcome Hargrove.
#17 — bnem: no, I didn’t; you completely missed my point, which is that (contrary to your assertion), Meche does not have TOR stuff, or even particularly close. You also missed half my reference to Moyer, which is that if he had Moyer’s pitching mind and his changeup he’d be a TOR starter (though I should have added to that Moyer’s control, which would also be a necessary element); it’s essentially the same as saying, “If we could just make Jamie 15 years younger and give him a 94-mph heater, wouldn’t that be great?” Put another way, if you think there’s anything at all (including stuff) about Meche characteristic of a really good starting pitcher, you’re living in a fantasy world.
This is .500 team that might win 90 or might lose 90, depending on luck, injuries, etc. Pretty good offense, pretty bad starting rotation, average bullpen.
There doesn’t seem to be much point in trading for prospects or trading away prospects at this stage. The Ms don’t own veterans that will fetch anything in return, and the real hole in the rotation (power starting pitching) isn’t going to be easily repaired by selling prospects. The very easiest, and most reasonable, way to improve the team is to bring Snelling up to play LF, move Ibanez to DH, and ditch Carl. Perez can play agains lefties, and Petagine can get ABs to get Sexson, Snelling, Ibanez, etc., rest every once in a while.
If there’s one thing I really wish Hargrove would do, it’s get some ABs to the bench. The starters would benefit from more rest, and we’ve actually got a decent bench for once.
Two things here that make me crazy about Hargrove. One, it’s ironic that Hargrove is on the receiving end of Everett’s first reoprted unpleasant outburst as a Mariner, because Hargrove was widely reported as being the guy who told Bavasi that Everett would be the ideal ‘left-handed sock’ for the team. Hargrove had a heck of a lot to do with Everett being here in the first place, and now maybe he’s finally realizing he was wrong.
Second, the ubiquitous “I haven’t talked to Carl/Player X, Y, Z about it” quote. Well why the hell hasn’t he? How hard is it to talk to one of 25 guys on the team on a somewhat regular basis? Do they not fly in the airplane together, stay in the same hotels? Bump into each other in the men’s room? Seriously, does he ever talk to the players at all?
The source of my pessimism is simply this: A lot of pitchers are good bets to get worse as the season wears on … and only Felix is a good bet to get better:
 Very few people believe Meche will pitch as well as he has so far.
 The gap between Moyer’s ERA, FIP and xFIP is even wider than Meche’s, and that bubble seems likely to burst (or develop a long slow leak) as the 43-year-old’s season wears on.
 There’s nothing in Washburn’s record that leads me to believe that he’ll be anything better than what he’s been.
 Pineiro simply isn’t good enough to start any longer.
 The bullpen issues have been well-covered. Putz is great, Soriano’s health is suddenly an issue, and Sherrill has been shakier than I would like. Everybody else is bad and replaceable.
And, as we all know, we have nothing of value to trade for more experienced pitching help unless we deal off our untouchables, such as Clement, Tuiasosopo, Morrow or Jones. Nobody else in the system has enough trade value. There’s no surplus of tradeable talent on the major league roster, either.
I’m heartened by the offensive surge, and think it will be sustained … but I think all that will lead to is a lot of 9-6, 11-5 and 7-4 games. More of which we’ll lose than win.
Of course, we could win the AL West anyway, because Texas and Oakland are no better. I personally would be the most entertained person on the planer if the M’s won the division with a losing record.
Which, you have to admit, is entirely possible.
Hargrove and Everett are the only REAL obstacles this team faces in winning the division. There is enough talent here for Bob Melvin to besitting on the bench, using a ouiji board to make strategy, and still come out on top of this currently weak division.
Hargrove has managed to take at least five games from us. WHY is he still here? We are hate him here. The fans seem to hate what they know about him (he has no particular entertainment skills – though I guess he could take up card tricks or making balloon animals to ingratiate himself with younger fans). I doubt any of his players would even pretend to stand for him if he were canned, though perhaps not so bitter as to not even pretend to wish him well, hopefully as the manager of the A’s or Rangers.
WHY is he still here?????
He’s still here because of June.
At least we’re not claiming guys off waivers from the Royals.
He’s still here because of June.
He should have been fired in May.
Interesting story on my paper’s Scripps Howard News Service wire about Jason Schmidt and his oft-quoted comments about wanting to pitch in Seattle next year:
“When I was in Seattle this time, a lot was said and a lot of things got blown out of proportion,” Schmidt said last week. “(Reporters) really grilled me about it, and I reacted like an 8-year-old instead of like a grown man.
“I tried to be honest and said it would be exciting if I did ever play there, and that there was a lull here. But after I left, I felt kind of bad about how it was portrayed [–] like I really didn’t appreciate what I’d done here, and I really do.”
Canseco update:
GBL  Approved the trade of San Diego OF Jose Canseco to Long Beach for P Yoankis Turino.
64- I would have traded Everett for him. Straight up.
Also on the “it could be worse” note — the Mets called up Jose Lima today. And the Dodgers called up Giovanni Carrarra.
Jeez–How come Lima keeps getting chances?
I guess teams figure that as long as his wife keeps giving him chances, so should they.
petec said:
Re: .45
Just because you flip a coin and it lands on heads 5 times in a row doesn’t increase the odds that subsequent flips will be tails.
My comment referred to the team regressing toward a mean in regards to the Anaheim series record. It was an observation of a statistical phenomenon, not a prediction of a future event, and has nothing to do whatsoever with the predictive statistics of flipping a coin.
I agree with many here: this is a .500 team that has been playing over its head for the past month — and I was thinking that a couple of weeks ago, so whatever bandwagon I’m on or off I haven’t done any jumping recently. Which is a heck of an improvement over last year and, as things stand, might be enough to win a weak division. As things stand. The question is, will Oakland and Texas stand pat between now and the trade deadline? Because if Beane pulls another rabbit out of his hat (trade Zito and somebody for somebody and somebody?) then the calculus, and the division standings, could change pretty rapidly. Of course such a trade could blow up in their faces, but I wouldn’t count on it. Texas hasn’t been particularly active in the July trade market but they haven’t been at or near the top of the division at that point in recent seasons either.
The pitching market is tight, but the M’s need another pitcher to replace Pineiro; otherwise they’re just giving up on about 20 games over the rest of the season. Everett needs to go, and they might as well bring up Doyle to platoon with Ibanez and/or Perez. I agree with all that. But if the A’s and the Rangers are making moves, will it be enough?
67 – Veteran clubhouse presence.
And, as we all know, we have nothing of value to trade for more experienced pitching help unless we deal off our untouchables, such as Clement, Tuiasosopo, Morrow or Jones. Nobody else in the system has enough trade value. There’s no surplus of tradeable talent on the major league roster, either.
This isn’t true, so we shouldn’t “all know” this. The M’s could put together a pretty solid of prospects without those four. Ryan Feierabend, Justin Thomas, and Shin-Soo Choo all have plenty of trade value. You could easily add guys like Stephen Kahn, Erik O’Flaherty, Wladmir Balentien, and Francisco Cruceta to that list, all of guys who have pockets of fans within both the scouting and sabermetric communities and would have significant value to specific teams.
The M’s could easily make a trade if they wanted to. Feierabend and Choo probably gets them in the door for pretty much anyone they could want.
Choo? Really? Don’t most organizations have a Quad-A, replacement-level outfielder?
72 – It also seems that every year a player is traded for less than market value if the team he is being traded to is willing to pick up salary. If the M’s need to and are willing to, they can certainly make a deal without “gutting” their system.
The move to get rid of Everett is going to come from Bavasi. I highly doubt any amount of pissing off Grover will lead to his release.
Also, Zero Gravitas, are you an Iain M. Banks fan?
Choo? Really? Don’t most organizations have a Quad-A, replacement-level outfielder?
Sure they do. But Choo’s better than that.
He’s a major league quality fourth outfielder. I’ve called him Todd Hollandsworth with an accent several times lately, and while I realize that no one takes that as a compliment, Todd Hollandsworth was well above replacement level for his career.
Shin-Soo Choo isn’t a great prospect, but he’s a good bet to be a fairly valuable role player, and he’s going to make the league minimum through 2009. There are a lot of teams that find that quite valuable.
You don’t have to be a future star to have trade value.
There are a lot of teams that find that quite valuable.
For instance, the 2006 Seattle Mariners, who are without a real CF playing CF right now.
Dave, if the M’s do that, I assume that means it’s time to stick Doyle in RF and shift Ichiro, yeah?
Also, for reference:
Player A: .275/.332/.440
Player B: .288/.346/.425
Player A is Todd Hollandsworth through 2005. Player B is Randy Winn. (Hollandsworth has some Rocky Mountain Air in his stats…but it’s not THAT huge.)
A’s lose today 10-4 to Detroit. M’s 2 1/2 back now.
A’s lose today 10-4 to Detroit. M’s 2 1/2 back now!
Sorry guys.
Just to clarify- Winn’s better than Hollandsworth (the OPS+ park adjusted are 103 and 98, respectively). But it’s not a Grand Canyon-sized gap between them as players.
One of the big differences between them is Winn came up early in an organization that didn’t have depth and had several years of sucking before he started coming into his own, whereas Hollandsworth didn’t stay healthy (had several years with injuries). They both fit that “tweener” mode of being not enough glove to play CF/not enough bat to play LF/not enough arm to play RF, but Randy came someplace (Safeco) where his range in LF gave him maximal value, and staying in the lineup and off the DL helps.
For instance, the 2006 Seattle Mariners, who are without a real CF playing CF right now.
Right. Choo could help the M’s in that role, but he’s not a great fit here, considering every other outfielder on the roster is left-handed. The M’s need a fourth OF who swings from the right side.
Player A is Todd Hollandsworth through 2005. Player B is Randy Winn. (Hollandsworth has some Rocky Mountain Air in his stats…but it’s not THAT huge.)
Winn’s quite a bit better defensively than Choo or Hollandsworth, but yea, same kind of thing. Like you said, not enough bat for a corner, not enough glove for center, but both are good enough to be a quality reserve. And he could start on crappy teams.
and the Dodgers specifically went out to get Gio Carrera again…
re: the Question of the Day … “skinny Aussie”??? skinny????
The latest AP take on the Hargrove-Everett dustup:
SEATTLE (AP) [–] Seattle Mariners manager Mike Hargrove and designated hitter Carl Everett refused Wednesday to talk about their closed-door shouting match, most of it from Everett, that occurred after the 14-6 loss to the Los Angeles Angels a night earlier.
The 35-year-old Everett went into Hargrove’s office about 45 minutes after the game and apparently voiced his frustration about his diminished playing time with the addition of veteran Eduardo Perez in a trade with the Cleveland Indians last week.
Hargrove plans to platoon Everett, a switch-hitter, and Perez as Seattle’s DH the rest of the season, with Everett hitting against right-handed starters and Perez against left-handers.
“What I said and what Carl said is between us,” a serious Hargrove said at his pregame meeting with the media before Wednesday night’s game with the Angels. “It’s just part of the job, part of the business. None of this stuff surprises me.”
The Mariners lost Tuesday night after leading 5-1 and dropped to 1-4 on the current homestand. During the game, Hargrove had Perez pinch hit for Everett as the last batter in the ninth inning.
“I don’t want to talk about it,” Everett told a reporter. Then he told a team representative who approached him on behalf of the media, “Tell them it’s none of their business.”
In the locker room before Hargrove talked to the media, he talked briefly to Everett, who replied with a smile.
Hey c’mon, Everett is a proven big league run producer–cut the guy some slack. Hahahahahaha… But seriously, signing him was among the worst decisions Bavasi has made. Hargrove is probably playing him out of fear for his life. A Petagine/Perez platoon makes sense, but since when has this team done what makes sense? Last time I checked, this team traded Randy Winn, Carlos Guillen, and Freddy Garcia, and ended up with, um, Jeremy Reed and a few C- prospects. Undo those three trades, and voila, you’ve got AL West champs. Bavasi should be the first to go.
Just saw an All Star Game ad with Barry Bonds in it. That made me smile. He can use the time off to visit his trainer in prison.
jeffs98119: At the time, getting Reed looked like a good move. The kid was definitely one of their top prospects.
Do the Ms have an excess of bullpen arms to trade? Chris Denorfia would be an interesting addition.
Heck, Dunn is wearing out his welcome in Cincy…. Meche, some bullpen help and an infield prospect could land the Ms their lefty sock at DH for the next several years….
Dunn is wearing out his welcome? I thought he was wearing out opposing pitchers.
Obviously you’re not as intelligent as the average Reds fan who would tell you that Dunn can’t hit for average and is lousy in *the clutch* and is only good at hitting solo shots…. 😛
More importantly, Dunn’s lackadaisical attitude is rubbing management wrong which is likely to precipitate his trade for pitching help. It’s the main reason he didn’t get more than a three year deal-the Reds FO doubts his work ethic and he obviously had no desire to learn to pay a competent first base (what an outfielder unable to transition to first? what the F*&^%ck?). The Reds like his good points but really gag at his warts. Meanwhile, they have serious issues in their pen and back end of the rotation.
Personally, I doubt he’ll ever be anything other than a raw power hitter but there are worse things than 50 hrs a year and an OBP of .385.
Such as a player with a lackadaisical attitude who refuses to learn a position more suited to his defensive abilities (ex: Alfonso Soriano). Yeah, the M’s need a guy with “warts”. But OTOH, maybe he just wants out of Cincinnati?
The Ms aren’t going to acknowledge anything about C-Rex until the Ms fall definitively out of contention. This org just burned Asdrubal Cabrera to get a platoon guy to match to Carl and shore up the DH position rather than acquiring a bona fide replacement for him, so ditching Carl now simply shows the trade for Perez as the woeful-dufus move it was. The Ms will continue to cling to Carl’s (carc)ass off the strength of a couple of walk-off four-baggers for most of July, _then_ ditch him to cut him off from his incentives. Because Everett’s numbers will be truly hideous by then, they’ll have a great bet of beating any grievance.
Seriously, any one stating publicly that the team is ‘looking for help to make a stretch run’ is smoking something—so that they can blow it in your eyes. The Ms aren’t any better or worse than they were at the start of July, or the start of June. That’s the problem. But they’re one prospect shorter.
terry in #3, you mean that Morse was the horse not the trooper, am I right??
Does Carl kickin’ his manager’s ass count? My money’s on Grover. But I’d pay box seat price to watch that one. : )
Choo >>> Hollandsworth, is a good comp, yeah; in fact, Choo has upside on that comp if he refines his game a bit more. At times, Choo has walked a fair amount. At times, he has driven the ball with good linedrive oomph. He has pretty fair tools for the OF, but makes bad reads and sub-par decisions. He has enough speed and break to steal some bases, but doesn’t seem to read pitchers all that well. There’s a trend here: Choo doesn’t play very smart. Maybe that means he _isn’t_ very smart, but playing a certain number of years can round off the worst of the rough spots. I see him as a starter on a weak team, or a serviceable 4th OFer from the left side. He’s a _lousy_ fit for the Ms at this point, ’cause they have a bunch of guys who do the same things only all of them do at least one of them much, much better. So he’s great trade bait, and even more to the point he’s major-league ready at this point.
I’d have no problem at all with a Choo+Feierabend deal. In fact, I would have vastly preferred that deal to the Asdrubal Cabrera screw-up. It’s exactly the potential to swing C+F for a real upgrade somewhere that incenses me about the Cabrera deal, actually.
The Ms are in a position to make a deal to healp the team. They just don’t have any record of actually pulling deals like this off, in part ’cause they don’t have any real plan about how to build the team and so are always behind the curve on filling weak spots on the roster, and so are suckers-in-waiting for intelligent GMs when the Ms guys have to go hat in hand and ask to dicker.
*blecchhhhh*
On the Farm:
Peoria
—————–
Brandon Morrow – 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 IP, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0 HR. It has begun!
Gerardo Avila – .436 / .488 / .718, 4 XBH (1 3B, 3 HR), 3 BB, 7 SO, 3 SB, 1 CS.
Carlos Peguero – .333 / .367 / .711, 10 XBH(!) (6 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR), 2 BB, 20 SO(!!!!!), 1 SB, 1 CS. Oh dear God, it’s Wlad’s doppleganger!
Everett
—————–
Kuo-Hui Lo – .265 / .339 / .490, 6 XBH (2 HR, 3 2B, 1 3B), 5 BB, 10 SO, 8 SB, 2 CS.
Michael Schilling – 2-2, 1.44 ERA, 25 IP, 5 BB, 20 SO, 1 HR.
Douglas Fister – 1-1, 1.29 ERA, 14 IP, 2 BB, 17 SO, 0 HR.
Steve Uhlmansiek (TJ surgery) – 2-0, 0.47 ERA, 19 IP, 7 BB, 18 SO, 0 HR.
Wisconsin
——————-
Luis Valbuena – .283 / .370 / .395, 22 XBH (15 2B, 2 HR, 5 3B), 38 BB, 38 SO, 17 SB, 6 CS.
Valbuena had a really horrible start, but seems to be figuring out A ball pitching. Still maintaining great plate discipline. He’s about the only person on the Timber Rattlers offense worth paying attention to.
Justin Thomas – 5-5, 3.10 ERA, 61 IP, 17 BB, 51 SO, 4 HR with Wisconsin. Graduated to Inland Empire.
Joe Woerman – 2-2, 2.12 ERA, 34 IP, 14 BB, 54 SO(!), 1 HR with Wisconsin. Graduated to Inland Empire.
Inland Empire
———————
Yung Chi Chien – .342 / .388 / .478, 25 XBH (17 2B, 5 HR, 3 3B), 22 BB, 40 SO, 21 SB, 7 CS, with IE. Graduated to San Antonio. Dave might think about making him more then a 5 / 6. Seems he’s doing quite well.
Mike Wilson – .315 / .389 / .555, 27 XBH (15 2B, 9 HR, 3 3B), 22 BB, 59 SO, 4 SB, 6 CS, with IE. Graudated to San Antonio.
Matt Tuiasosoppo – .306 / .359 / .379, 15 XBH (14 2B, 1 HR), 14 BB, 58 SO, 5 SB, 6 CS, with IE. Graudated to San Antonio, though I don’t know why.
Robert Rohrbaugh – 7-1, 1.46 ERA, 55.1 IP, 8 BB, 47 SO, 2 HR, with IE, Graduated to San Antonio.
Mark Lowe – 1-0, 1.84 ERA, 29.1 IP, 11 BB, 46 SO(!!), 0 HR, with IE, Graduated to San Antonio.
Stephen KAAAAAHHHNNNNN – 2-0, 1.95 ERA, 27.1 IP, 15 BB, 35 SO, 1 HR, with IE, Graduated to San Antonio.
San Antonio
——————–
Wladamir Balentien – .249 / .328 / .472, 31 XBH (17 2B, 14 HR), 31 BB, 85 SO(!), 9 SB, 5 CS. Oh Wlad… we had such hopes for thee.
Travis Blackley – 6-5, 4.25 ERA, 91 IP, 23 BB, 56 SO, 12 HR(!).
Ryan Feierabend – 5-6, 4.45 ERA, 83 IP, 21 BB, 73 SO, 10 HR(!).
Yorman Bazardo – 4-3, 2.95 ERA, 76.1 IP, 27 BB, 44 SO, 5 HR. Strikeout rate way down. Might be getting by on luck considering he’s not much of a groundball pitcher.
Craig James – 3-3, 1.54 ERA, 46.2 IP, 17 BB, 42 SO, 2 HR. FREE CRAIG JAMES!
Lowe and Rohrbaugh are doing fine for SA so far. Kahn started off kind of rocky but has since found a groove.
Tacoma
—————
Brian LaHair – .343 / .395 / .478, 7 XBH (6 2B, 1 HR), 6 BB, 15 SO, 1 SB, 0 CS. Might be the next Greg Dobbs, but I’d rather take my chances with LaHair then the Dobber.
Guillermo Quiroz – .313 / .369 / .440, 11 XBH (8 2B, 3 HR), 11 BB, 28 SO, 0 SB, 0 CS. Why do we have Rene Rivera again?
Doyle – .298 / .410 / .458, 15 XBH (12 2B, 3 HR), 21 BB, 31 SO, 4 SB (WHYYYYYYY!!!), 0 CS. FREE DOYLE!
Adam Jones – .278 / .328 / .464, 30 XBH (14 2B, 13 HR, 3 3B), 22 BB, 67 SO(!), 12 SB, 2 CS.
Jeff Clement – .205 / .255 / .295, 2 XBH (1 2B, 1 HR), 2 BB, 10 SO, 0 SB, 0 CS. Limited play.
Some interesting developments, some major disappointments. FREE DOYLE!
What TIF said, and he beat me to it. Wholesale promotions in the Ms org. The brass can say what they want to, but this looks lik force feeding the talent to me. Not that I’m howling about it, given the dross clogging the 25-man. Perhaps we’ll finally get the teardown this offseason.
And another note: the names on the roster at Everett have the greatest diversity with the most melifluous result I can ever recall on any team in any organization in any sport. Some football [aka ‘soccer’] sides, come close, but this ones the best.