What Is Gil Meche?
Another day, another good start from Gil Meche, resulting in a Mariners win. With the performance today, he lowered his ERA to 3.83 for the season and has been essentially annointed the team’s current ace by the coaching staff, as he will start the first game after the all-star break.
What a difference a month makes. After his May 30th start, Meche had a 4.87 ERA, a 5-6 record, and less than stellar peripherals. On a per 9 inning basis, he was allowing 1.28 homers, 4.39 walks, and 7.51 strikeouts. The K’s are nice, but everything else is poor, leading to the mediocre run prevention. At that point, we’d seen two more months of the typical Gil Meche.
Since June 5th, he’s started 7 games and pitched significantly better. In those 7 games, he’s thrown 45 innings, posted a 2.39 ERA, and the improved run prevention is matched by improved ratios. His HR/9 has been 0.80, his BB/9 a much improved 2.79, and his K/9 has held steady at 7.37.
You can see the improvement in his Fielding Independant ERA as well. In his first 11 starts, his FIP was 4.84, almost perfectly matching his 4.87 ERA. In his last 7 starts, his FIP has been 3.64. His ERA of 2.39 is over a run lower than you’d expect based his normal peripheral numbers, but a 3.64 FIP is nothing to be sneezed at, and is a marked improvement.
So, what has Meche done better the last 7 starts to lead to this improvement?
Two things, quite simply: He’s throwing more strikes and keeping the ball in the yard. The decrease in walks has kept runners off the bases, and the lack of home runs allowed have kept the ones that have gotten aboard from scoring. However, it is quite rare to see a pitcher simultaneously put the ball over the plate significantly more often and cut his home run rate nearly in half. Generally, strikes equal long balls, unless you just have awesome unhittable stuff, and Meche does not. Looking at the numbers as a percentage of batters faced, we see the following pattern:
First 11 starts: BB – 11%, K – 19%, HR – 3%
Last 7 starts: BB – 8%, K – 20%, HR – 2%
Less walks, slightly higher strikeout rate, less home runs. It is rare to see a pitcher simultaneously throw more strikes, put the same amount of balls in play, and still cut his home run rate. As we’ve discussed previously on the site, historically, we’ve seen no evidence of starting pitchers being able to sustain HR rates lower than their FB rates would suggest. Essentially, if Meche’s new found ability to keep the ball in the yard is real, it’s going to show up in his GB/FB%. If this is a repeatable skill, his recent run of home run stinginess will be accompanied by a raise in GB%. Let’s see if thats true:
First 11 starts: 42% GB rate, 36% FB rate
Last 7 starts: 41% GB rate, 44% FB rate
Well, that’s not what we wanted to see. He’s cut his HR rate in half despite a significant uptick in balls hit in the air. Looking at it another way, we see his HR/FB rate was 13% in his first 11 starts, but is just 7% in his last 7 starts. 11% is the league average, which pitchers have shown to regress towards over time. Pitchers in Safeco will post slightly lower HR/FB rates due to the home park, making 10% more of a realistic marker. So, he’s basically been 3% high in his bad stretch and 3% low in his good stretch.
It’s pretty obvious that his current style of performance is unsustainable, however. That isn’t to say the results aren’t sustainable, but he won’t continue to get these kind of results pitching this way. If he wants to keep posting a 2.39 ERA (or anything below 3.5, really), he better start missing a lot more bats and getting a lot more groundballs in a hurry.
Good Gil Meche is throwing the ball over the plate a lot, missing bats at a slightly above average rate, and keeping the ball in the yard. You won’t find starting pitchers who have sustained that kind of profile for a long time – if you’re not missing bats a lot and you’re throwing strikes, you’re going to get taken deep more often than this.
So, realistically, even if Gil Meche continues to throw like he has his last 7 starts, and does not regress back to what he was in the 123 major league starts that came before it and say he’s not that good, he still can’t sustain his performance with the way he’s pitching. Either the walks are going to go up or the home runs are. He’s not going to be able to keep both at their currrent low rates. It’s not a repeatable skill.
That isn’t to say Gil Meche can’t pitch well. If we put the HR/FB rate back to 10% for the rest of the year, and assume that he’ll continue to post 8% walk and 20% strikeout rates, that can be an effective enough pitcher. Noah Lowry, last season, posted numbers almost exactly identical to what Meche has posted in his last 7 starts, and he ended the year with a 3.78 ERA, 4.05 FIP, and 4.34 xFIP.
That’s what Gil Meche’s last seven start skillset projects out to. Not many walks, some homers, and enough strikeouts to make him valuable enough to pitch in the middle of a decent rotation. If Gil Meche continues to pitch like he has since the calendar turned to June, a performance similar to what 2005 Noah Lowry put up is about what we should expect.
If Gil Meche reverts to previously established form and throws like he has from 2000 through May of this year, well, he’ll be significantly worse than that.
All that to say, no, Gil Meche has not turned a corner. He’s not an ace, and he’s not pitching like one. He’s a back-end starter having a nice run aided by some performances that are unsustainable.
Edited to add: Should have included this in the original post, but this isn’t the first time we’ve seen Gil Meche become this kind of pitcher. In the second half of 2004, he ended the year with a 13 start run that saw him pitch very similar to this. Because his HR/FB rate was 12% in that run, his ERA was 4.02, but the style was very similar.
It obviously was not sustainable. This is nothing new – Meche has done this before. It’s just not a recipe for long term success.
Well, not even that….it’s that when you’re dealing with prospects, the value you THINK you’re getting back is projected value. Most of the time, you’re going to come close, but it’s not a certainty (and that’s where some of the caution in the discussion is coming from).
Well, not even that….it’s that when you’re dealing with prospects, the value you THINK you’re getting back is projected value. Most of the time, you’re going to come close, but it’s not a certainty (and that’s where some of the caution in the discussion is coming from).
Of course the same could be said about veteran pitching…it’s always projected value with considerable risk.
“I get a kick out of how we focus on the Mariners being only ‘2.5 games out of first place’ rather than on the equally instructive ‘3 games under .500′.”
Kick or no kick, I’ll take this over the last 2 years around this time and call it an improvement:
2004 at All-Star break – 32-56
2005 at All-Star break – 39-48
11% is the league average, which pitchers have shown to regress towards over time.
There are successful pitchers with high FB rates who are able to keep HR rates below league average. Just like there are pitchers who groove pitches and give up a higher than average HR rate on their FBs would indicate.
The eyeball test for Meche this year tells me he is “pitching” better, and keeping hitters off balance more than in the past. His K/9 is up, BB down and HR down and instead of celebrating and figuring out why the masses want to point to it being unsustainable and run him out of town with torches. SIGH.
I have been as frustrated with Gil as anybody, but he has definitely turned a corner and if the M’s down sign him they will regret it. If they were smart about it they would try and extend him now at a decent price instead of waiting til the offseason when the price would be much higher for him or his replacement.
Put down the torches folks, Meche is a part of this teams future!
What are some examples of pitchers with consistently high fly ball rates who are also able to consistently keep their home run rates below average?
There are successful pitchers with high FB rates who are able to keep HR rates below league average. Just like there are pitchers who groove pitches and give up a higher than average HR rate on their FBs would indicate.
This is true. There are successful pitchers with high FB rates who keep their HR rates below average. Their names are Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, and BJ Ryan. You know what they have in common?
They’re all relief pitchers.
Relieving is fundamentally different than starting. You just won’t find a starting pitcher who has demonstrated that they can sustain lower than expected HR/FB rates. You won’t. We’ve looked, we’ve studied, we’ve tried. That pitcher doesn’t exist.
A few folks tried to claim that Jarrod Washburn was that kind of pitcher. Whoops.
Fine, jump ahead in the argument, why don’t you?
What Dave said.
Dave, why are at least some relief pitchers able to demonstrate such repeatable skills and starters not?
Dave, why are at least some relief pitchers able to demonstrate such repeatable skills and starters not?
Relief pitching is fundamentally different than starting. It’s much, much easier. Not having to deal with the endurance factor allows you to throw every pitch with maximum effort, maximum movement, and maximum velocity.
Even the starting pitchers who throw the hardest will have significant swings in velocity. Justin Verlander will pitch anywhere from 92-100. Felix’s fastball is 92-98. Bartolo Colon is 89-97, and he used to be 94-100. It’s a lot easier to take their 92 or 94 MPH fastball out of the yard.
Relievers don’t have the same kinds of swings. J.J. Putz comes in, throws 97-98 with the fastball and 90 with the splitter, and that’s it. You never see him take a little off the fastball. Same with Nathan, Rivera, and Ryan. They come in, throw smoke, and go take a seat. Hitters don’t get the 90% effort pitches to swing at.
It’s part of why Felix was so dominant last year – he had relief ace quality stuff for 7 to 8 innings every time out. And no one could touch him. If a pitcher could sustain that kind of stuff for 100-115 pitches a game, you’d see starting pitchers who could also post lower than expected HR/FB rates. But we haven’t seen that kind of freak of nature yet who can throw at 100 percent effort for an entire game.
Roger Clemens is darn close, and if he can sustain his performance this year, we’ll probably have to annoint him as the first starting pitcher to consistently show that he can whoop his expected HR/FB rate. But Roger Clemens is the greatest pitcher of our time, and Gil Meche is no Roger Clemens.
Interesting. Thanks.
This is a fantastic thread. I have nothing of substance to add. I’d just like to say thanks to all, especially Dave.
This is why I love USSM.
Dave, don’t you think the reason Meche has had such success not just as of late but all year is from his home starts? With a 6-2 record and an era of 2.9 in 9 starts at home compared to 2-2 with an era of 5.1 in 9 starts. Opposing batters are hitting .296 against on the road and .200 at Safeco. I agree with what you said about hitters not hitting as many home runs at Safeco but at home he has let up 7 hrs compared to 6 on the road with 12 more innings. I always love reading about fans passion for their players but this ones not brain surgery, he’s comfortable at home. Those last 7 starts you speak of 4 were at home where he went 3-0. One being his complete game allowing only one run against the Angels. On the road he did go 1-0 but it was a game he didn’t wish to have allowing 11 base runners in 5 innings getting the win thanks to a Richie Sexson grand slam in the top of the 5th. Many pitchers are like this with huge differencials between home and road starts, look at Ervin Santana, 10-3 with a 3.96 era, 2.9 era at home with a 5.1 on the road. It happens. Your boy Jarrod Washburn, look at his numbers. Same hr’s home and away but not era. Jaime Moyers numbers from home to road are ridiculous as well 2.8/5.0 thats what comes with pitching in Seattle I guess after 5 years Meche finally got used to home. I am nervous a little with Jeremy Reed being injured as he has helped alot of the pitching staff with some great catches and whoever is in center whether it be Bloomquist or Choo will be a decent drop off. Seattle has been known to have great fans and Meche definantly appreciates it as well as the ball park so I hope he as well as the fans keep it up. Bottom line, “What is Gil Meche?” A bad pitcher that plays well at home.
Dave, don’t you think the reason Meche has had such success not just as of late but all year is from his home starts?
Safeco has helped him some, but beware the small sample size demon. 18 starts isn’t a lot of data anyways, and cutting that in half doesn’t help.
I always love reading about fans passion for their players but this ones not brain surgery, he’s comfortable at home.
You can’t make that determination based on 9 starts. His ERA at home was basically equal to his road ERA last year.
Bottom line, “What is Gil Meche?†A bad pitcher that plays well at home.
Sorry, but history doesn’t support this argument.
My argument is not about history, its about fact this year. Seattle pitchers play well at home. You could put alot of mediocre pitchers on the Mariners and they’d put up decent numbers. They should have gotten Jason Johnson I’m sure he could put up an era of 3 at Safeco. Its your arguement that has no history. You can’t tell me you’d be surprised to see him stay under 3 era at home for the 2nd half while putting up over 5 on the road. Can you explain the double strike outs at home? 60/30? He’s comfortable at home bottom line, history or no history THE FACTS ARE IN THE STATS.
My argument is not about history, its about fact this year.
Small. Sample. Size.
Seattle pitchers play well at home.
Safeco supresses offense by about 10%. Not 80%, like Meche’s line would suggest.
They should have gotten Jason Johnson I’m sure he could put up an era of 3 at Safeco.
If any old pitcher can post an ERA of 3.00 in Safeco, how much do you think Felix sucks, because he can’t?
You can’t tell me you’d be surprised to see him stay under 3 era at home for the 2nd half while putting up over 5 on the road.
Yes I can.
Can you explain the double strike outs at home?
Small. Sample. Size.
He’s comfortable at home bottom line, history or no history THE FACTS ARE IN THE STATS.
It’s comments like this that got statistical analysis laughed at, and rightfully so, for years and years.
Small samples sizes are where statistics meets superstition, that ever-popular baseball pastime.
Your backing on your article is “Small. Sample. Size.” My last comment about the facts in the stats was in reguards to your response of “sorry history doesn’t support this arguement.” so calling me out on thats a low blow but I can take it. And when I read your article I was laughing that’s why I felt the need to respond to it. Your making a story out of nothing here. Seth Mcclung, one of the worst pitchers in baseball, now in the minors for the Devil Rays has a 9.64 era on the road with a 4.36 at home. ALOT of pitchers just play better at home you cannot argue that but if you want write back… Small. Sample. Size. if it makes you feel good.
…but if you want write back…
Yea, I think I’ll pass.
You just won’t find a starting pitcher who has demonstrated that they can sustain lower than expected HR/FB rates…That pitcher doesn’t exist
Um, I think he does. His name is Pedro, Willis, Zito, Smoltz, Kazmir. I am not saying he can sustain those numbers but these are recent guys who have done it or are doing it.
What is interesting is if he “regresses” back to 10% HR rate you suggest then the names include guys like Lackey, Schilling, Penny, Colon, Santana, Millwood, and Mussina. Lets not toss the baby out with the bathwater just yet.
“What is Gil Meche?”
Gil Meche = back-of-the-rotation fodder.
Um, I think he does. His name is Pedro, Willis, Zito, Smoltz, Kazmir.
Pedro’s 2006 HR/FB: 13.7%
Willis’ 2006 HR/FB: 10.1%
Zito’s 2006 HR/FB: 9.0%
Smoltz’s 2006 HR/FB: 11.6%
Kazmir’s 2006 HR/FB: 11.6%
As a group, the guys you hand picked as being the exceptions to the rule are putting up a HR/FB rate of 11%, right at league average. So, in a word, no, those guys aren’t who you’re looking for.
If you want to make an argument that a starting pitcher has this skill, you basically stop and end at Roger Clemens.
Really, I’m not making this stuff up. I’ve done a ridiclous amount of work on this subject. I’m not trying to pull the wool over your eyes, and I’m not ignorant of some example of a guy who proves this whole theory wrong. On your side, you’ve got Roger Clemens and maybe, maybe John Lackey.. I have every other major league starting pitcher alive.
What is interesting is if he “regresses†back to 10% HR rate you suggest then the names include guys like Lackey, Schilling, Penny, Colon, Santana, Millwood, and Mussina. Lets not toss the baby out with the bathwater just yet.
And if he regresses all the way back to 20%, the names include King Felix and Josh Beckett. In fact, those two, this year, are posting the worst HR/FB rate of any pitcher in the past three seasons. They’ve both been more tateriffic than any meatball thrower you want to come up with.
Josh Beckett and Felix Hernandez. If the argument is stuff = no home runs, well, then, those two are pretty much giving that argument the finger, aren’t they?
Historically, the difference between home/road splits for pitchers is maybe a fifth of a run to a half a run on their ERA (so like 2004 in the AL it was 4.49 home era to a 4.78 road era), which comes from being a little better about not giving up home runs, walking guys, and a pretty significant jump in strikeouts.
It’s not all that huge.
One thing that seems to be getting lost in the discussion of Meche’s HR rates is the fact that, even when those HR rates come back to normal, all things being equal, he’s still pitching very well. 7.4 Ks/9inn, 3/1 K/BB ratio, 2005 Noah Lowry? I’ll take that. That’s not rotation filler – it’s a legitimate #2 starter, easily one of top 50 starters in baseball.
Also, the 2004 comparison is not apt. During the 2004 “good Meche” period, Meche reduced his walk rate to a ridiculously low level, but his K rate wasn’t nearly what it has been lately.
I think it’s obvious to most people that Meche can’t sustain a sub-3.00 ERA, but can he put up a 3.5 ERA? Maybe, if Hargrove doesn’t pitch his shoulder off. I think that’s what’s really worth considering.
Historically, the difference between home/road splits for pitchers is maybe a fifth of a run to a half a run on their ERA (so like 2004 in the AL it was 4.49 home era to a 4.78 road era), which comes from being a little better about not giving up home runs, walking guys, and a pretty significant jump in strikeouts.
It’s not all that huge.
To add to this point, with Meche specifically, his ’03 to ’05 splits have him at a 4.73 FIP at home and a 5.24 FIP on the road. In ’06 those splits are 3.40 FIP at home and 5.47 FIP on the road.
Meche hasn’t shown anything close to a 2-run home/road split in his ERA or FIP or whatever in the past, so we’ve got 450+ IP that say he’s not special home/road-wise and 110 IP that might say he is. I’ll grant that his splits this year are weird, but my money’s still on the part that says Meche isn’t special.
That’s not rotation filler – it’s a legitimate #2 starter, easily one of top 50 starters in baseball.
Easily? Meche’s 4.32 FIP is currently 48th amongst all qualified starters in baseball. That sets him barely in the top 50. Meche’s 4.66 xFIP puts him at 57th amongst all qualified starters in baseball, not even in the top 50.
Plus, if we’re going to rank him in the top 50, we have to consider how many innings he’s going to be available to pitch, and he’s currently on pace to pitch 50+ more innings than he did last year or the year before. I haven’t specifically researched it, but I’m guessing the track record of guys who have been injured in the past and increase their workload by 50+ innings in one season is probably not a very healthy track record.
And all of this assumes that Meche’s current 4.32 FIP is a better indicator of how he’ll pitch in the second half than his 5.00-ish FIP from the last three years, which I think is a fairly shaky assumption. Meche has been pitching better so far this year, but I still haven’t seen any compelling reasons to think he’ll sustain even the improvement in his peripherals.
And all of this assumes that Meche’s current 4.32 FIP is a better indicator of how he’ll pitch in the second half than his 5.00-ish FIP from the last three years…
Exactly! And that’s what I meant when I called Meche a replacement level pitcher. Players should come with a disclaimer like mutual funds — past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is sort of like Washburn and the 3.20 ERA last year. Yes, Washburn had a 3.20 ERA and a 3.20 ERA is pretty good. And yes, Meche has an ERA of 3.83 and has been well above replacement level this year.
In Washburn’s case, his peripherals (notably strand rate) indicated that this wasn’t repeatable. For Meche, part of my pesimism is his non-sustainable HR/FB rate and his FIP and xFIP which are much worse than his ERA. But equally important is his history. Not only were 2004 and 2005 near replacement level — remember that pitching in Safeco with the Mariners defense behind improves his stats — but so were April and May of 2006. We’re basically talking about one good month where 3 of his starts were against terrible offenses (Kansas City, San Diego, and Los Angeles). To be fair, for the season Meche has faced tougher hitters on average than the other Mariners starters. Still I’d like to see some sustained results before I believe this is a “new Gil Meche” and not a 6-7 inning starter with an ERA of 5+.
Regardless of whether “new Meche” or “old Meche” shows up after the all-star break, I imagine he’s going to be finishing out the season at Safeco. Given the perception (accurate or not) that trading him means folding the tent for the season, and the lack of available arms to slot into his spot (though given his workload I’m not sure he will be available for his slot by September), it seems to me that the best course of action is to hang onto him, offer arbitration, and take the draft pick when he walks (assuming he’s “graded” high enough to make the draft pick valuable). I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pineiro get traded this month, however, particularly if the Yankees actually are interested (which seems like a lapse in judgement to me, but they’ve been kind of erratic in their ability to evaluate pitchers over the years… just like everybody else, I guess). I’m not sure who steps into Pineiro’s slot, but in terms of results it’s not likely to be any worse than Pineiro himself. So Bavasi gets to “put faith in the team” and “stay in the race” while also getting to participate in the trade market (and while I doubt he’s going to get anything of significant value from the Yankees farm system, he at least appears to be doing something to help the team). So hanging onto Meche and dealing Pineiro is a good PR move, and maybe isn’t bad for the team either (depending on what he can get for Pineiro).
I know this is small sample size but even though Gilbert has not been great on the road, he’s been good in his two Road NL starts.
Line @ Arizona 6/29: 7 IP/1 ER/1 BB/4 K
Line @ San Diego 6/23: 5.2 IP/1 ER/2 BB/6 K
If Gilbert has turned a corner in the eyes of scouts, he may have serious value to an NL team (especially in the NL West). So to the poster who said Gilbert hasn’t been all that great on the road, you are half right. He’s been good on the road against the NL teams he’s faced.
Overall, his line against the NL at home and on the road is pretty darned good: 29.1 IP/6 ER/5 BB/24 K = 1.84 ERA
Again, I know it’s small sample size, but it is a glaring plus in his overall line for the year.
Question on the “new Gil Meche” – one of the reports I’ve read or hear talked about him reducing his between-games workload, so that he doesn’t tire during the game.
Normally, I find the “we found a flaw in his delivery” or “he was tipping his pitches” arguments to be a load of hooey. But in this case…
Gil came back from labrum surgery. He was worked ridiculously hard as part of “Melvin’s Folly” (ie, using the same 5 starters all season). He lacks stamina. How many times have we seen him go 4 good innings, then blow up in the fifth or sixth? I’m no expert, but his ESPN charts show a really really bad pitcher after 75 pitches thrown (2003-2005).
In short, Gil Meche lacks arm strength, and gets tired. (Which, I think, is why some have suggested an Eck-like move to the bullpen.) So, maybe there is something to working a bit less, and being fresher for the game. This year, he gets stronger through 90 pitches, before dropping off the cliff.
Anyway, I’ve heard some reference to this, but not much. Any thoughts? Personally, I’ve always been a fan of the Leo Mazzone thro-lots-of-soft-stuff between games approach, but maybe this works for Gil.
Is this at all real, or just some more “he was jerking his head” baloney?
How thoroughly has pitcher conditioning and training been scientifically studied I wonder? I would guess not much but then I’m a lousy guesser.
Any word on that two-seamer he was working on (with laughable results in ST)?
Mat #126, if you’re still listening… I wasn’t talking about his season peripherals, I was talking about the “Since June 5th” numbers that Dave was cited. You know, 7.4 K/9inn, etc. I know, small sample size, but those are repeatable skills. I’m as skeptical as the next guy about Meche (in particular, I think he’s going to get hurt and should probably move to the bullpen before that happens), but there is certainly much more room for optimism about him than there has been at any time I can remember since his second surgery.