Mariner Trade Value
Last year, I did a post on players trade value across MLB, an idea stolen from Bill Simmons annual NBA trade value article. The basic gist of the idea can be summarized like this; if a team called you and asked for a player in return, who would you rather give up? Service time, salary, and performance all factor into the equation.
In essence, who has the most trade value in the Mariners organization? We’ll count down the top 25 in reverse order. Because this is what we do during the all-star break when you take real baseball games away from us for four days. Jerks.
25. Steve Uhlmansiek, LHP
Working his way back, mostly throwing well. Could be a breakthrough guy in ‘07.
24. Greg Halman, OF
A younger, better version of Balentien. Has less value around the league, but more to me.
23. Wladmir Balentien, OF
He’s an all-or-nothing prospect, but his power is legitimately rare. I’d cash in before he busts.
22. George Sherrill, LHP
Lefty one out guys aren’t tough to find, but good luck finding one this tough on LH hitters.
21. Jeremy Reed, CF
His stock has tumbled a long ways. Hasn’t adjusted to majors, looks to be on the outs.
20. Justin Thomas, LHP
Better stuff than other southpaws in organization, missing bats like crazy.
19. Emiliano Fruto, RHP
Stuff is good, command is not, results are mixed. Needs to take a step forward.
18. Mark Lowe, RHP
Transformed himself from a thrower into a pitcher in less than a year.
17. Francisco Cruceta, RHP
Fantastic waiver claim a year ago. Command needs work, but stuff is good enough to help team.
16. Matt Tuiasasopo, SS/3B/RF
Organization has pushed him fast, but it would be nice to see results eventually.
15. Ryan Feierabend, LHP
Makes the most out of average stuff. Scouts love his make-up and approach to pitching.
14. Shin-Soo Choo, OF
Does everything well enough to play in majors, none of it well enough to start regularly.
13. Gil Meche, RHP
His value will likely never be higher, but ironically comes when club needs to keep him the most.
12. Raul Ibanez, LF
What a weird, weird career path he has taken. But we’re enjoying the fruits of that.
11. Chris Snelling, LF/DH
Every time he’s healthy, we get excited. When he gets hurt, we cry. Please stay healthy.
10. Brandon Morrow, RHP
With future rotation totally up for grabs, organization is hoping he comes fast.
9. J.J. Putz, RHP
Hurts me to have him this low, but closers are easy to find. But man, he’s good.
8. Rafael Soriano, RHP
Still has the potential to move back to the rotation at some point.
7. Jeff Clement, C
How badly could this team use a guy who can hit .280/.400/.500? He might be that guy.
6. Kenji Johjima, C
Already an above average catcher and signed at way below market value.
5. Adam Jones, CF
Establishing himself as the premier prospect in the organization.
4. Yuniesky Betancourt, SS
Hard to find another league average shortstop making as little as he is.
3. Jose Lopez, 2B
All-Star second baseman at age 23, doesn’t make anything for several years.
2. Ichiro, RF
If he was willing and eager to play center field, he’d be untouchable.
1. Felix Hernandez, RHP
Obviously, he’s not going anywhere.
Guys who have value to the team, but not value in the trade market, include Richie Sexson, Adrian Beltre, and Jarrod Washburn. While the team would be instantly worse if they were removed, let’s be honest, we’d gladly unload their contracts if we could.
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Where would you have put AsCab on this list?
Great post! This clarifies what the team can offer for help in the next month. I wouldn’t mind seeing Bavasi move one more player to help the team, but any more than that would begin to hurt the farm (unless we got a blockbuster deal). Out of curiosity, where would Asdrubal Cabrera have been on the list.
Cabrera would have ranked 14th, ahead of Choo, behind Meche.
11. Chris Snelling, LF/DH
Every time he’s healthy, we get excited. When he gets hurt, we cry. Please stay healthy.
**********
The guy’s knees are composed entirely of fragile scar tissue at this point. I don’t really see any general managers beating down the door to get this guy.
I’d also probably put Clement and Johjima ahead of Bentacourt.
I can’t see other teams wanting Snelling (11) over Feierabend (15), Tuiasasopo (16), Lowe (18) or Thomas (20). Or at least, other teams seeing them as being any “riskier” than Snelling.
Side Note: I see Casey Craig is tearing it up at Inland Empire, but haven’t seen him on the Future 40 in awhile. Does he have any trade value, any big league potential? Maybe this is a FutureForty question…
Love it.
How close was Tillman to making the list ahead of Uhlmansiek (I’m assuming he’d be #26, unless it’s Chen)?
Is Betancourt really valued by other teams? I guess I can understand that — young, great defense, cheap, and improving offense. I don’t know, I guess I thought he wouldn’t amount to much given his performance in the minors, but maybe I was wrong.
Dave, would he be on an “untradeable” list for you? Or a “tradeable, but only in a blow-my-socks-off deal”?
Is Jeremy Reed really just a great defensive center fielder with an AAAA bat?
Or could these hand injuries have been a BIG factor in his below average performance?
Before the season Dave said he wouldn’t traded Betancourt straight up for Tejada, if that helps any.
#8, at this point, I don’t think you can exclude either of those options. I’d certainly be in favor of givinig him plenty of time to heal and giving him another chance before we give up on him Guillen style, but I’m afraid we might be dumping him for 25 cents on the dollar real soon.
I can’t see other teams wanting Snelling (11) over Feierabend (15), Tuiasasopo (16), Lowe (18) or Thomas (20). Or at least, other teams seeing them as being any “riskier†than Snelling.
There are a lot of teams out there that absolutely love his bat. From a pure hitting standpoint, there aren’t many guys in the minors who are better.
Side Note: I see Casey Craig is tearing it up at Inland Empire, but haven’t seen him on the Future 40 in awhile. Does he have any trade value, any big league potential? Maybe this is a FutureForty question…
Casey Craig’s attitude has basically kept him from developing properly, and at this point, he’s an organizational player. Teams just aren’t going to give him a legit chance. His teammates hate him.
How close was Tillman to making the list ahead of Uhlmansiek (I’m assuming he’d be #26, unless it’s Chen)?
Tillman was in the mix for the last spot, and you could certainly make an argument for about 6 different guys there. I went with Uhlmansiek, but there’s not a huge difference between him, Tillman, Varvaro, or Kahn.
Dave, would he be on an “untradeable†list for you? Or a “tradeable, but only in a blow-my-socks-off deal�
No one is untradeable. If the Mets offered me David Wright for Felix, I’d make the deal. For the right deal, everyone is tradeable.
Is Jeremy Reed really just a great defensive center fielder with an AAAA bat?
He’s not a great defensive center fielder, and I think his bat will improve. He’s a decent defensive center fielder with some untapped potential in his bat.
He’s (Reed) not a great defensive center fielder, and I think his bat will improve. He’s a decent defensive center fielder with some untapped potential in his bat.
I had been under the impression that he was considered a great defensive center fielder (a notch below Mike Cameron, Griffey in his prime, Andruw Jones). Have I always been crazy, or has the general consensus on this changed over the years?
There are a lot of teams out there that absolutely love his (Snelling) bat. From a pure hitting standpoint, there aren’t many guys in the minors who are better.
If I was a GM making a trade with the M’s, i’d be very skeptical about the risk/reward with Snelling. But alas, I am not a GM.
Aren’t a few guys on this list untradeable because they were drafted this year? Morrow, Uhlmansiek, etc? They actually have zero trade value – this season.
Uhlmansiek was drafted in 2004.
Morrow isn’t eligible to be traded for another 5 months or so, so yes, technically he’s ineligible to be traded now. But if I didn’t include him in the list, I’d have 15 questions about where he’d fit if he was eligible.
When Reed came up I recall the word was that he might not be good enough to play CF long term and he would wind up as a corner outfielder. He’s played better than that, but I think he’s had some flashy catches out there that make him seem like a great CF. It’s not the flashy catches that determine greatness, IMHO, it’s covering a lot of ground day in and day out. Which you can’t judge by Web Gems.
23. Wladmir Balentien, OF
He’s an all-or-nothing prospect, but his power is legitimately rare. I’d cash in before he busts.
What? He’s not the next Ryan Howard? [whistles]
13 – Also, I don’t think Reed can actually be traded while he’s on the disabled list. I think that teams sometimes get around that by using the “player to be named later.” However, I can’t imagine even doing that that Reed would have much value now as opposed to during the winter after he perhaps returns late in the season and has at least some kind of success at the plate.
I wish we had a better sense of Ichiro! and centerfield, other than “no one has asked me” and “we haven’t asked him”…. however, have I mentioned that I love Ichiro! ?
“If there is a problem,” he said, “we need to notice it, what creates the problem. The problem usually isn’t just on the cover. You need to look much deeper. For example, if we’re taking about a tree, and the tree has a problem, you need to look at the root. But you cannot see the root. The mistake is to keep watering the fruit. That’s not going to solve anything. You need to find where the problem is first.”
I’ve been trying to figure out whether the root of the tree means Bavasi, the farm system, Hargrove, or what? Lincoln and Armstrong?
I was never good at this Zen philosophy stuff. Quit talking in riddles, man!
“If I answer that, basically, what I’m doing is ruining the fruit,” he (Ichiro!) replied.
I like him more everytime I get a chance to hear his thoughts. He has such an eloquent way of presenting his views without leaving room to be misinterpeted or having media types extrapolate his words into a meaningless guess.
Either that or he has a really eloquent interpreter…
Speaking of trade value: I’m listening to WFAN in NYC and a caller who sounded like Ratso Rizzo just suggested that the M’s would jump at the chance to trade Ichiro and Felix for Lastings Milledge. Fortunately the hosts laughed him off and asked him were he was getting his drugs. Gotta love talk radio as the trading deadline approaches.
Just curious for comparison purposes … had we gone “out of slot” where would Miller rank. From the previous draft, where would Gordon and/or Upton rank on this list.
Miller, Gordon, or Upton would all rank 3rd on the list.
Or maybe he’s just a complete badass. I mean, evidence would tend to suggest that…
Dave, what about Cameron Maybin, who we actually could have had last year? I’m fairly sure he’d be ahead of Clement, but by how much?
Maybin would rank 7th as well. Value wise, there’s not a lot separating him from Clement. They have totally different games, and while Maybin may have a slightly higher ceiling, Clement is closer to the majors. Those two are basically a pick-em.
Maybin would rank 7th as well. Value wise, there’s not a lot separating him from Clement. They have totally different games, and while Maybin may have a slightly higher ceiling, Clement is closer to the majors. Those two are basically a pick-em.
How does Clement’s current status in AAA effect the likelyhood of a Johjima trade? I can’t see the Mariner’s moving Johjima at the deadline, but is Clement ready to push Johjima in Spring Training?
With what he know now, is there anyway the Mariner’s keep Johjima and move Clement? (Again, probably not at the current trade deadline).
Totally different idea: The M’s need left-handed sock in left field. Clement’s defense is not ML-ready. What are the odds the M’s move him to left field, even on a temporary basis, to get his bat into the lineup?
If he’s athletic enough to catch, he should be athletic enough to play left, right?
Thanks Dave. I think Maybin is the better bet at being a superstar but Clement is both the better bet at being an all star, and the better fit for the team (lefty in Safeco). Just curious how things would look had we gone the other direction.
How does Clement’s current status in AAA effect the likelyhood of a Johjima trade? I can’t see the Mariner’s moving Johjima at the deadline, but is Clement ready to push Johjima in Spring Training?
A Johjima trade is both unlikely and unwise. Clement might be in Triple-A, but that doesn’t mean he’s pounding on the door to the majors. He needs to spend the rest of the year in Tacoma, and start 2007 in the PCL as well. He’s not major league ready, and his development isn’t being stalled by having him play there.
Johjima is a 30-year-old catcher. He’s not going to have a long major league career. He’s signed for two more years after this, and then he’ll probably be ready to slide into a reduced role. I don’t see the need to trade either one. Depth is not a bad thing.
With what he know now, is there anyway the Mariner’s keep Johjima and move Clement? (Again, probably not at the current trade deadline).
Why trade Clement? The team’s biggest need offensively is for a left-handed slugger who draws walks and hits the ball a long ways. That is Jeff Clement’s skillset.
Totally different idea: The M’s need left-handed sock in left field. Clement’s defense is not ML-ready. What are the odds the M’s move him to left field, even on a temporary basis, to get his bat into the lineup?
That bat isn’t ready for the majors yet, and it certainly wouldn’t help his development to have him learn a new position on the fly at the major league level.
If he’s athletic enough to catch, he should be athletic enough to play left, right?
Eventually, maybe, though why you’d want to move a guy that far down the defensive spectrum without a good reason is beyond me. But defense isn’t all about athleticism – there’s no reason to think he could run good routes, judge flyballs, or be an asset with the glove despite having never played there.
Good responses. Thanks, Dave.
I’d been hearing that the bat was ML-ready, or close, and that his defense is what was holding him back. If that was the case, probably what makes the best sense is to put Clement in as a semi-regular DH, semi-regular catcher. If he needs more development time, however, he should get it.
Yeah, Reed at 21 sounds about right- he’s managed to reduce himself to “throwin” status.
If anything, Reed might be headed for a Todd Hollandsworth kind of 4th OF career of not being able to stick in a lineup every day.
Clement’s at .222/.288/.296 in 54 at-bats for Tacoma. Just 2 of his 12 hits are extra base knocks, and he’s posting a lousy 2/13 BB/K.
The bat clearly isn’t ready. There’s no reason to expect it to be ready, as he was drafted just a year ago, and then took his time signing. It’s not like he’s developing slower than we should have expected.
There’s a pocket of Mariner fans that get way too excited about small sample size performances in the minor leagues, especially the lower levels. You’re best off just ignoring those people.
Dave, you’ve said before there’s no way that they DH Clement and use him as the backup catcher because then if Johjima gets hurt, the pitcher would have to bat. Do you see the possibility of him playing some 1B and C to keep him in the lineup when Johjima’s catching? When he’s ready of course? Or do you think it’s too much extra stuff for him to worry about, learning a new position and all that even if it is only 1B?
Seems to me that Clement might be blocked by Johjima for the next few years and that alone might be a good enough reason to look at him in LF for 2007 with Rob Johnson being groomed as the backup catcher.
Dave, this is somewhat off topic but what do you think about Thornton’s performance for the White Sox to date and the fact Borchard is no longer with the M’s???
Not that Jeff Brantley’s word means much but I heard him on ESPN stating the White Sox are the best team in the AL because of their 3 RP who all throw near 100mph (one of whom he mentioned as being Thornton.)
For the life of me, I truly don’t understand why Ichiro is playing RF??? Being an Asian American and realizing how much Japanese culture emphasizes team work over self etc… why would he not play CF when it is so obvious that that would benefit the team the most??
Ichiro is not so “Japanese” in his values imho.
Your thoughts??
Dave, you’ve said before there’s no way that they DH Clement and use him as the backup catcher because then if Johjima gets hurt, the pitcher would have to bat. Do you see the possibility of him playing some 1B and C to keep him in the lineup when Johjima’s catching? When he’s ready of course? Or do you think it’s too much extra stuff for him to worry about, learning a new position and all that even if it is only 1B?
I’ve said there’s no way Hargrove would do that. A more forward thinking manager might be willing to do it. Joe Mauer is DH’ing occassionally for the Twins.
That said, any position shifting they do with Clement will take place at the minor league level first. They’re not going to have him play 1B in a game for the first time in the majors. If that’s something they think they want to do, you’ll see him getting time at 1B in Tacoma.
The move from C to 1B significantly reduces Clement’s value, however, so that’s not a move they should make lightly. If they’re set on him as the catcher of the future, the organization is better off with him catching as much as possible and improving his skills behind the plate. Moving him simply to “get his bat in the line-up” at DH/1B is a waste of a valuable prospect. 1B/DH types aren’t hard to find – they’d be better served picking up a veteran to bridge the gap, rather than using Clement there and slowing his development behind the dish.
And it’s not like this club lacks for a guy who should probably play DH regularly, swings from the left-side, and is ready to rake in the majors.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Clement went through the same adjustment process to Triple-A, in about the same timeframe, as Adam Jones. (So far he’s starting out about the way Jones did.) Which means Clement might just start to tear it up in the last month of the Triple-A season.
Seems to me that Clement might be blocked by Johjima for the next few years and that alone might be a good enough reason to look at him in LF for 2007 with Rob Johnson being groomed as the backup catcher.
The team has an absolute glut of outfielders right now. With Jones, Reed, Snelling, Ichiro, Ibanez, and Choo, the team will have 6 guys already in the organization going to spring training next year fighting for spots on the roster. We’re going to move Clement to LF, where he’s never played, to add another name to that mix? No thank you.
Dave, this is somewhat off topic but what do you think about Thornton’s performance for the White Sox to date and the fact Borchard is no longer with the M’s???
I think relievers are extremely inconsistent and I was glad to see Matt Thornton go. I don’t have a problem with that deal, and I’m glad Bavasi made it.
Not that Jeff Brantley’s word means much but I heard him on ESPN stating the White Sox are the best team in the AL because of their 3 RP who all throw near 100mph (one of whom he mentioned as being Thornton.)
Jeff Brantley’s an idiot. Seriously.
Ichiro is not so “Japanese†in his values imho.
I don’t pretend to know Ichiro, and I’d rather not comment on his values.
I’m still trying to figure out how Adrian Beltre was at fault for allowing Rene Rivera’s winning run, as he was according to Brantley after Sunday’s game….
“The team has an absolute glut of outfielders right now. With Jones, Reed, Snelling, Ichiro, Ibanez, and Choo, the team will have 6 guys already in the organization going to spring training next year fighting for spots on the roster. We’re going to move Clement to LF, where he’s never played, to add another name to that mix? No thank you.”
Fair enough. But if Johjima is locked in at catcher for the next few years where does that leave Clement? Is it possible that Johjima might move in a couple of years? Or does Clement simply become attractive trade bait in a possible deadline deal next year if the M’s find themselves in contention?
Clement would not be ready to assume the full-time starting role until Spring ‘08, the last year of Johjima’s contract. The M’s can worry about that bridge when they come to it.
Re #41 — Brantley probably mispoke. He meant to blame Johjima.
Fair enough. But if Johjima is locked in at catcher for the next few years where does that leave Clement?
In Triple-A to start ‘07, and depending on how well he plays, he could spend the whole year there. It wouldn’t be the end of the world to have him improve his game in the PCL for another year. Then, in ‘08, you’d have a seasoned, hopefully major league ready Clement and Johjima going into the last year of his deal. You could make a better decision then, based on another year and a half of information.
Is it possible that Johjima might move in a couple of years?
He’s a free agent in two and a half years. He might leave on his own then, or retire, or go back to Japan. Or maybe he’ll develop Catcher Depreciation Syndrome and fall apart at age 31 like so many others have. We don’t know what’s going to happen, and there’s no reason to feel the need to make that kind of decision now.
Or does Clement simply become attractive trade bait in a possible deadline deal next year if the M’s find themselves in contention?
In a year, Kenji Johjima will be 31. You don’t want to be trading away your 24-year-old catcher because you have a 31-year-old catcher. Catchers age in dog years. Johjima isn’t the long term solution for the M’s behind the plate. He’s a great fit now, and for the next several years, but let’s not go moving Clement just because he’s here.
There’s nothing wrong with having depth. Let the situation play itself out. It usually does.
I’m actually surprised that no team (afaik) has ever tried a 50/50 catcher/DH platoon. Yes, if the Catcher gets injured the pitcher’s slot in the line-up might come up a couple of times (In 1 game – put a pinch hitter on the bench!) I bet most catchers would hit and run better playing defense only every other game. They’d probably play better defense as well.
I guess there aren’t that many catchers out there who hit well enough to DH…
I guess there aren’t that many catchers out there who hit well enough to DH…
Bingo.
Though there were three regular DH’s listed among the worst 25 offensive performers in the AL, according to Chris Dial over at think factory. (Including, of course, our very own. I cried tears of pride.) It’s not like DH is a top offensive position like 1B or LF.
Catchers age in dog years.
Which both explains Jeff Clement’s value and why it’d be better long term for him not to remain one for long. I personally think Clement should be trained for third base after he polishes up his catching skills. Third basemen with power are a lot more valuable then first / DH.
Dave-
With the steady rise of Jones and the recent decline of Reed, is there any reason to think Jones can’t compete for the starting CF spot next spring?
I’ve always thought he would first see real MLB action in 07, then compete for a position in spring 08. However, Reed hasn’t shown much growth since 04, and everytime Jones is promoted he seems adapt pretty well. His strike out rates are continually going down with each promotion, his power numbers and average seem to level off at .300/.370/.470ish. Is his defense still that far behind his bat? I know earlier this year he was making lots of errors, taking bad routes, and his bat was still just feasting on bad pitches…..but recently it seems like he’s turned the corner (at least with the bat).
I would think if Choo continues to take the routes he does and can’t swing like he did in Tacoma they may give Jones a shot later in the year?
It’s not like DH is a top offensive position like 1B or LF.
You do realize those 1B/LF’s could DH?
DH, by its definition, is the top offensive position on the field. It’s the easiest one to field a hitter at, simply because every major league player is able to play the position.
Which both explains Jeff Clement’s value and why it’d be better long term for him not to remain one for long. I personally think Clement should be trained for third base after he polishes up his catching skills. Third basemen with power are a lot more valuable then first / DH.
Would you have moved Mike Piazza as well? Joe Mauer? Does every good hitter get moved from out behind the plate in the his 20’s due to this? What kind of exceptions would you make?
I know some teams agree with you, but I don’t. I think the value you get from having an all-star hitter behind the plate is huge, even if his career value isn’t going to be as long. I’m fine with getting 5-6 elite years at catcher rather than 7 or 8 good years at another position.
With the steady rise of Jones and the recent decline of Reed, is there any reason to think Jones can’t compete for the starting CF spot next spring?
Obviously, we have another couple of months for things to play out, but right now, I’d say Adam Jones is the odds on favorite to be the opening day CF next year. He’s played very well the last 6 weeks, and the club loves his improvement. He has to show consistency, especially defensively, but the talent is there.
It’s the easiest one to field a hitter at, simply because every major league player is able to play the position.
I disagree with this. If your whole role is to be a designated hitter, which is the greatest advantage that the AL has over the NL, then you want your DH to be as capable a hitter as possible. C-Rex is proving that he doesn’t belong anywhere in the lineup, even if he was fielding a defensive position. Why the hell should we have him as our DH?
Someone whose job is to hit has to be able to hit damnit, and I should think that a DH has to at least post a .275 / .340 / .475 line in order to justify their value and existence on the team.
#53, hoiw does that disagree with what Dave said?
I disagree with this.
Think about it for a second. There are approximately 410 offensive players in the majors right now. All 410 are capable of fielding the “DH” position. Only a limited subset of the population can play each specific position. Let’s say 65 of those 410 can catch (at a major league acceptable level), 80 could play shortstop, 90 could play center field, etc…
Probably 300 or so could play 1B. And maybe 350 could play LF.
Inherently, that makes DH the easiest position to find a hitter at, because you have the largest population to choose from.
Why the hell should we have him as our DH?
The Mariners inability to value talent correctly has nothing to do with this. That’s their problem. The fact that they picked the wrong player doesn’t mean its easier to find a 1B that can hit than a DH that can hit.
My point wasn’t that anybody couldn’t play it, it’s that not just anybody should play it. If your whole role in the lineup, as DH, is to hit, you’d better be a pretty damn good hitter.
My point wasn’t that anybody couldn’t play it, it’s that not just anybody should play it. If your whole role in the lineup, as DH, is to hit, you’d better be a pretty damn good hitter.
Which, again, is missing the point. Bookbook’s original point of contention that “DH is not a top offensive position like 1B or LF” is, by definition, wrong. That’s the point we’ve all been refuting.
Dave agrees with you.
Yes, I know the 1B and LF could DH, and that almost every DH could play 1B or the outfield, just not well. My tongue was partly in cheek (I hit the second post before I saw that you had replied to the first). Offensive replacement level for DH tends to be lower than for 1B (isn’t there some evidence that players don’t tend to hit as well when they DH?), but certainly nowhere near as low as for C.
About teaching Clement 3B, I’d be against:
It diminished Todd Zeile’s career.
3B’s seem to hit a wall in their early 30’s more often than most positions anyway.
We have a third baseman.
53-
Perhaps the best way of putting it is really ANY player can DH and only cost his team games at the plate, whereas C-Rex and Rivera both are lousy hitters, but one could at least contribute at C.
The defensive spectrum (excluding P) goes something like this:
SS-C-CF-2B-3B-RF-LF-1B-DH
Generally, better hitters and worse defensive players are found at the right end of the spectrum.
What makes a power hitting C more valuable than the same bat in LF is that it’s easy to find a /.275/.350/.475 DH. Not so much so a C who will hit that. Great offensive players at the far left of the defensive spectrum give you a lot more options for the right end.
It may or may not be worth mentioning that sometimes it is difficult to get a superstar to DH when they probably should. So, considering that players take a certain amount of pride about playing their position, it may or may not be easier to find an elite hitting DH than an elite hitting 1B or LF, because those guys have the clout to demand a position. I think that is a big part of why you don’t see #s as productive out of the DH position as you do out of the elite hitting positions in the field.
That said, I agree with the rest about why the DH should be the best, etc. In fact, I think you all agree with eachother, as far as I can tell.
I hope this is not off topic- where did the M’s get Halman from? I have been reading and hearing great things about him, but I have no clue about where he came from.
I’m somewhat surprised that Eduardo Perez has no trade value.
I hope this is not off topic- where did the M’s get Halman from? I have been reading and hearing great things about him, but I have no clue about where he came from.
The Netherlands.
Since someone was asking about Clement v. Maybin, I’ve been interested to note the near-consensus among prospect-watchers that Troy Tulowitzki, who had been rumored to be our draft target in ‘05, is a noticeably better prospect than Clement (indeed, from the comments I’ve seen, folks at BA seem to like him better now than they did then). I’m curious as to your take on that, Dave — where would you put Tulowitzki on this list if we had him instead of Clement?
I’m not a TT fan. I don’t agree that he’s a better prospect than Clement.
45 – Thanks, Dave, for patiently answering my questions. This is exactly why I’m so addicted to this site.
What a difference a year makes in our catching situation – from a revolving door to a mini embarrasment in riches. Seems like Bavasi/Fontaine did a great job identifying a problem and solving it. It would be nice if our other holes can be fixed so quickly.
I don’t either, but I’m no scout; so I was curious as to your take.
TT is the Shin-Soo Choo of shortstop prospects. He has gap power, okay plate discipline, decent enough contact rates, and is good enough to play the position but not be great at it. There’s nothing there that makes you say “hello future star”.
He’s got a really good chance to be Rich Aurilia.
Dave, who do you think has more trade value at this point, Felix or Liriano? And if you did a Twins trade value chart similar to this, how would you rank Mauer, Liriano and Santana?
I took a quick look at MiLB.com to see what the hitting numbers were for some players, and I see what you mean for Matt Tuiasosopo. From the numbers this year, he certainly doesn’t look like very much, little to no power, high K and low BB, and a low batting average. Are there positives that I am missing, or is it all scouts eyes in his case?
Felix.
Santana, Liriano, Mauer. But that’s like asking if I’d rather own a Ferrari, Lamborghini, or Bentley. You can’t go wrong.
Are there positives that I am missing, or is it all scouts eyes in his case?
At this point, the only good thing you can say about him is he’s young for the league and he’s been pushed fast. The results just aren’t there.
The swing is still nice, so he could improve significantly. But right now, he’s all projection.
Re Ryan Feierabend … Dave, your description of him sounds a lot like people were describing Bobby Livingston for a long time. Yet you like Feierabend and have never been a big Livingston proponent. What, in your view, is the difference?
Feierabend has average stuff from the left side. Livingston has well below average stuff.
Feierabend is legit 87-91, popping 92 or 93 at times. Livingston is 83-87.
Feierabend’s just got a better arm.
Can we hope that this year qualifies as Tuiasosopo’s experience “learning how to deal with failure,” as Bavasi wants him to do, and that he goes back to AA next year for a consolidation/breakout season?
If I’m not mistaken doesn’t Feierabend throw harder?
What a great read for an off day. Thanks.
Well, Tui’s been in San Antonio all of 3 weeks. Let’s see what happens the rest of the year before we label it “failure”… but yeah, he’s going through awfully fast.
TT is the Shin-Soo Choo of shortstop prospects. . . . He’s got a really good chance to be Rich Aurilia.
Unfortunately for him, the humidor really does seem to have tamed Coors, otherwise he’d have a really good chance to be mistaken for Barry Larkin.
The “failure” would be not just the present small sample size at San Antonio, but the defensive struggles and the lack of power compared to what you’d expect, especially in a California League context.
One issue that is being overlooked in the DH discussion is salary. You’re paying A-Rod $25 million a year because he’s an elite defensive player. A team that played him at DH would be getting poor value for their investment. If you try to sign a free agent, you are going to be in competition with teams that value a player’s defense, and so you are going to have to pay that player accordingly. While the arguement that “anyone can DH” may be true on its face, it isn’t a realistic reflection of the real world issues involved in filling the position.
There are only so many Frank Thomas/Travis Hafners of the world who really can’t play defence and derive all their value from their bats. Otherwise, it only makes sense to take a guy on the cheap because he has no defensive value and spend the dollar on a skillset that’s more difficult to find, or plug in the best home-grown hitter without a position (usually making him the 2nd best hitter at a particular pos’n in an organization).
You’re paying A-Rod $25 million a year because he’s an elite defensive player.
If this is the case, then why…..oh never mind.
my, there are some mighty baby-faced All Stars this year….
84 – Indeed.
My dad was asking me who was in the Home Run derby.
“Oh, you know, David Wright, Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera…”
“Who?”
I’m kind of surprised that Rob Johnson didn’t make the list – I’ve always heard good things about him. Would he have been #26 on the list?
I believe that Rob Johnson projects as a backup catcher at the major league level, which means he would have little trade value unless he takes big strides forward in his game.
Why is the break 4 days this year? Three wasn’t long enough?
It’s officially a three-day break & 14 of the teams have a game thursday — the M’s (and the rest of baseball) don;t play ’til Friday; I believe all the Ms are supposed to be in Toronto on Thursday, including Joh.
I think this article is representative of USSM’s (incorrect, I beleive) overvaluation of prospects. I’d have to put Ibanez much higher up on the list, and probably the #1 guy of the guys who might actually get traded.
My logic is: Is the chance of a player like Ibanez collapsing greater than a prospects chance of not panning out? Jeremy Reed is a classic example. 3 years ago, you would have traded 3 Ibanez’s for a Reed, but it turns out that Reed has been mediocre at best and Ibanez has been effective and healthy.
Essentially, there are as many risks for a prospect as there are for a proven veteran; in fact, I feel there are more. A “proven vet” gives you, at least, a year or two of performance, a prospect potentially gives you none. Even if you do hit the jackpot, your team may have to trade that player or lose them to free agency in short order.
The only argument I can see is that the prospect costs you less in terms of salary, which is true… but again, the Free Agency affect means that the “Career” of a young player (from the perspective of the team who has his rights) isn’t much longer than that of a FA Vet.
Overall, reliable if not spectacular results for a known price are better, on a whole, than an unknown performance for free except in extreme cases. Except for Ichiro, Felix, and Ibanez, none of the players listed could fetch a single legitimate major leaguer or top-shelf prospect. Beltre and Sexson are better trade candidates despite their large contracts.
IMHO, of course.
I think this article is representative of USSM’s (incorrect, I beleive) overvaluation of prospects. I’d have to put Ibanez much higher up on the list, and probably the #1 guy of the guys who might actually get traded.
The article only covers Dave’s opinion of the trade value of our players, in the order given. Think about it a second: as good and consistent as Ibanez has been, is a hitter of Ibanez’s quality, at his age, as valuable as an ace pitcher at 20 who’s basically costing us peanuts to start every 5 days?
It’s not just a matter of how valuable a player is in terms of how he helps us win, but their value to other teams as trade bait. Ibanez might be a valuable player to other teams, but not as valuable as the guys above him.
Look at it this way: if you were trading away to get a proven veteran, you’re usually giving up prospects. If you’re trading away a proven veteran, you’re usually looking for prospects. This list compiles the value of everybody, our prospects if we were to trade them away for veterans and our veterans if we traded them away.
Get it?
I’d have to put Ibanez much higher up on the list, and probably the #1 guy of the guys who might actually get traded.
There’s a 0% chance Raul gets traded. He’s going to retire a Mariner.
My logic is: Is the chance of a player like Ibanez collapsing greater than a prospects chance of not panning out? Jeremy Reed is a classic example. 3 years ago, you would have traded 3 Ibanez’s for a Reed, but it turns out that Reed has been mediocre at best and Ibanez has been effective and healthy.
That’s one example. How about A.J. Pierzynski for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser? Does that prove that I’m right? No, obviously not. You can’t base your beliefs on the results of one trade.
Overall, reliable if not spectacular results for a known price are better, on a whole, than an unknown performance for free except in extreme cases.
Interestingly, that’s the same belief thats been held for the past 10 years by the Kansas City Royals, Pittsburgh Pirates, and until they cleaned house in their front office, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.
Except for Ichiro, Felix, and Ibanez, none of the players listed could fetch a single legitimate major leaguer or top-shelf prospect.
That’s just categorically not true. You’d be stunned when you heard the list of names the Mariners were offered for Yuniesky Betancourt at the winter meetings.
Beltre and Sexson are better trade candidates despite their large contracts.
All of baseball disagrees with you.
It’s also not true that you’re guaranteed anything from any proven veteran.
Is the combination of money and poor performance so bad with Beltre and Sexson we couldn’t get rid of them and their salaries for the proverbial peppercorn — a player to be named later?
Let’s put it this way. Beltre and Sexson will probably be put on waivers at some point after July 31, just like a large number of other players. They will almost certainly not be claimed while on waivers, even though the team claiming them wouldn’t have to give us even a peppercorn — they’d just have to pay the rest of their contracts.
That’s one example. How about A.J. Pierzynski for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser? Does that prove that I’m right? No, obviously not. You can’t base your beliefs on the results of one trade.
I’m not trying to prove anything with an extra example here, but the Pierzynski trade reminds me of another Twins trade that worked out pretty well–trading Chuck Knoblauch to the Yankees. The Twins got:
Eric Milton (24 WARP as a Twin), then traded for Carlos Silva (10.5 WARP as a Twin) and Nick Punto ( = Bloomquist’s evil twin, right down to the poor CF defense).
Cristian Guzman (about 15 WARP as a Twin), then signed by the Nationals for a terrible contract. As compensation, the Twins drafted in the third round of the 2005 draft a LHP out of Nebraska, Brian Duensing. Duensing hasn’t been moved along quickly at all, but he’s been successful at every stop, with a sub-3.00 ERA everywhere and peripherals to back it up.
AND Brian Buchanan (about 2 WARP) who was traded for Jason Bartlett, the Twins’ current starting SS, sporting a .271 EQA, not that far off his .266 EQA.
So the Twins have, over the course about the last decade, can trace about 50 WARP, three players on their current major league roster, and one sort of fringy propsect back to the Knoblauch trade. And it’s not because Knoblauch was so valuable (although that was part of it), it’s because they were able to identify the right prospects, usher them along as major league ballplayers, and then get more value out of those prospects once they become “proven veterans.” Consider it an existence proof, there definitely exist teams from time to time that would rather have prospects than veterans and can do well evaluating players that way.
And speaking of Ibanez (somewhere, someone is, I’m sure of it), I was looking up his splits just now. Remember how he seemed to have solved his platoon issues over the past two years? This year he’s back to being helpless against lefties (.666 OPS). Yet another reason to get him out of LF and to DH, where you can use Perez now and then to spell him.
A “proven vet†gives you, at least, a year or two of performance, a prospect potentially gives you none … reliable if not spectacular results for a known price are better …
Really, the last several years of Mariner acquisitions seem perfectly designed to refute this. The team went out and got proven veterans like Scott Spiezio, Rich Aurilia and Jeff Cirillo expecting them to deliver value for the money, and they collapsed like me after a night of drinking beer with Derek.
This applies also to players kept on the team long after they had ceased to be productive, like Dan Wilson.
It’s true that prospects are a risk, but so are “proven veterans,” and in most cases the veterans are riskier and more expensive.
He’s killing righties this year though, so yeah, platoon him and Perez.
It helps if you look at this vet/prospect value argument from strictly a market standpoint.
If you define veterans as guys who are either in their free agent years or final 1 or 2 years of arbitration, general economics and market theory would state that these guys are salaried right at their market value. And although there are obvious exceptions where a player outperforms or underpeforms their salary, as a whole they are priced at their value.
Prospects, on the other hand, must be undervalued as a whole. This is because teams own exclusive rights to these players so they are not exposed to the market which would drive up their price. Nor do prospects have a chance at real arbitration to get market salary until their 5th or 6th year of MLB service.
Hey, where is Joel Pineiro on this list? Jo-el has got to be worth something, anything… Doesn’t he?
Seriously, I hope the Mariners are aggressive at the trade deadline, and aren’t afraid to deal some of their more established players with big contracts, although they would have to find some big market team that doesn’t mind taking on a proven veteran with a bloated contract as a desperation move to make the playoffs (cough, Yankees).
Regarding that list of names, Dave — anyone you wish the M’s actually had dealt Betancourt for?
Ichiro at #2 seems highly debateable to me. At $12.5mm per year, I’d say the Ms are actually overpaying for his services, at least from a pure baseball standpoint. Why on earth would a team give up anything of particular value for a right fielder who’s 33 years old and has a career line of .333/.380/.442? Other than the fact the he’s Ichiro!
Ichiro has more intangibles than his batting line suggest. He’s a premier defensive outfielder, has a high baseball IQ, steals bases, and is one of the most marketable guys in the league.
I’ll admit I have a very difficult time quantifying Ichiro’s marketability in terms of his trade value, and I suspect that that’s the most important of the factors you list. I’m curious how much Dave figured that aspect into his rankings. Dave?
However, his defense and base-stealing are quantifiable, and they don’t amount more than a win or two per season. I’m not saying Ichiro isn’t very very good, but $12.5M per season for a 33-year old that can do what he does does not seem like a bargain to me.
I know Ichiro keeps himself in pretty good shape, but he’s 33. A lot of his value – defense, steals, batting average from infield hits, etc. – derives from his speed. Isn’t he a candidate to get worse fast? Isn’t now precisely the time to cash in?
However, his defense and base-stealing are quantifiable, and they don’t amount more than a win or two per season.
Okay, a, that’s not a very good quantification. And b, a “win or two a season” from defense and baserunning is pretty huge.
And c: go look at Lou Brock, Rickey Henderson and Tony Gwynn. Fast players lose a step, but Ichiro’s not going to turn into Carl Everett.
Very crisp capsule descriptions of the boys, Dave, some quite telling. That’s the best description of Shin-Soo Choo I’ve ever heard, for instance.
—Reed: He hasn’t been able to adjust and the League has. He’s probably better than his numbers this year, but not better than his numbers last year. An average CF, too. I wouldn’t have bet that he would even be in the organization next year if he hadn’t hurt his hand, which zeros out his trade value such as it is until and unless he plays again.
—Matt Tui: He was a high schooler with very little time playing baseball when drafted. Even for his age, he’s behind on development, and the org is pushing him damn fast, and at the wrong position until they moved him to 3B in the middle of this year. Yeah, I’d love to see results, but he’s a guy who will have a big breakout year at somepoint below AAA. I’m by no means sure that it will be even _next_ year, though, and folks may give up on him a bit before he puts it together. He’s still really learning to be a ballplayer.
—Balentien: I will be very, very interested to see what he does next year. He’s made some strides learning the strikezone and taking the walk this year, but he’s as high risk as a non-injury guy can be for sure. I would rather _not_ see him dealt, though. You couldn’t get anything for him that approximates his value if he makes good, and if he makes good his kind of sock is damned rare. This one I’d rather keep and see how it plays out. If he busts, meh, he didn’t cost the Ms a bunch, and you have to see how some guys develop. He’s not blocking anybody, and the org isn’t built around him succeeding, so keep him and see.
—Feierabend’s value is higher, but I like Thomas more; stuff has it’s virtures. I don’t disagree with the rankings at all, though, since Ryan is more advanced. RyanF is the guy I’d be happy for the Ms to move in the next few weeks in the right deal. Far more so than the dumbass dealing of Cabrera. Moving Asdrubal is the classic example of an organization undervaluing talent when they have multiple guys with it at the same position. “Shortstop? Oh, we alreadh have AGoodOne. We can move ThisOtherGuy to fill a need, and we won’t be hurting.” Dumb. Ass.
—Tulowitzki: Wildly overrated and quite unimpressive really; your fingernail in thread on him maybe even overrates him, to me. He does nothing exceptionally well expect wow (some) scouts. I can’t see him being even as good as Crosby or Khalil Greene. Betancourt could whisk his socks off, make the play, then put them back on the guys feet before TT made his first move. The Betancourt signing just looks better and better, to me. And he’s here, right, now.
—Sherrill: He’s got that sidearm sling from the left side like Nelson had from the right side, and LH batters get water in their eyes trying to pick it up coming in from behind their ears. But he’s good enough to get RHers out most of the time, too, though Hargrove overmanaging like crazy won’t use him an inning at a time like he could. I don’t want to see him go, but there may well come a day when some other team gets a brain cramp on needing a lefty-killer in a way equivalent to the Ms deal for Eduardo Perez, and the Ms get offered a sweet prospect for him. At that point, take it sez me.
—Doyle: There are very few pure hitters in the minors as good as he is, very few. If the Ms released him, I’m sure 27 organizations give or take would offer him a shot to see if he could make it. I look at a guy like Michael Young, and I look at Doyle, and I like Doyle better ’cause he’s a LH hitter. Because of the injuries, you couldn’t remotely get for him in a deal what he’s worth if he still makes it. I hope to see him up soon, though handled with care even so.
—Felix: Straight up for David Wright or Miguel Cabrera if they were made available, but that’s it. The sky is still the limit for Our Man Hernandez.
I am intrigued — can you tell us some of the names that teams offered the M’s for Yuniesky Betancourt?
ah, Mitch is back — this morning re:Felix, “he’s won 8 games, but he’s been terrible!”
If Choo can have as valuable a career as Rich Aurilia, that’s quite a bit more than I thought.
11 Seasons at 102 OPS+ at passable SS ain’t chopped liver.
(Or did I get lost in the commutative property from TT to Choo to Aurilia? My math skills aren’t what they used to be…)
ESPN has Neel talking about Pedro on the DL and their need for pitching. Mets, meet Gil Meche!
I think it was Tulowitzki who was being compared to Aurilia, not Choo.
103, 104, 105: Did anyone notice the article where Ichiro compared the Mariners to a tree, and that the problems were in the roots?
It seemed like he might be saying that the M’s won’t be truly good until they dump Hargrove, but he certainly wasn’t being direct about it.
or he was being as obtuse and zen as possible, while laughing to himself as the press all wrote it down on their slates
DMZ: You’ve made my point for me. A win or two person season IS a huge amount for a right fielder to contribute via defense and baserunning. The point is that, even assuming Ichiro contributes 1.5 wins/season above replacement level by his defense and baserunning alone, that would bring him to approximately 5 wins above replacment level, assuming he stays as good going forward as he has been in in his prime (not a good assumption in my opinion). Is $12.5M/year such a good deal for that kind of production (and risk)? I’m not sure. I’m asking the question.
Put another way – would you trade Ichiro for Abreu straight up?
Ichiro’s WARP3, by year: 9.0, 7.3, 6.9, 8.6, 7.3. He’s already at 4.0 this year, so best guess is he ends up somewhere around 7.5 or so.
Based on the $2 million per win estimate, Ichiro’s real value is something like $15-16 million per year. It’s higher than that, actually, because of the talent pyramid, and the scarcity of players who can sustain that level of performance while staying on the field all the time.
Ichiro’s a true superstar, one of the elite players in the game, and he’s underpaid.
And no, I wouldn’t trade him for Abreu straight up. I wouldn’t even think about it.
So, presuming the catcher called up to cover for Joh’s brief family leave is sent back, someone is due up. A true OFer, perhaps? Someone who shall not be named, perhaps? Number 11 from the above list, perhaps?
Oooh, I like that. Number 11 has a nice ring to it.
If you’re talking about roots, you’re going deeper than Hargrove. Hargrove is just the fertilizer spread around the base of the tree. The roots run deeper than that.
Ichiro also has value based on his marketability for the team.
107
Man, I’m not even old enough to remember Fast Tony Gwynn.
Dave,
Based on what you wrote in #117, what’s the package the M’s offer to Ichiro? What do you do to keep him at the end of next year? How many years and how much per? Just curious. If the Mariners value him properly (and assuming next year is like any of the ones he’s had so far, even his worst to date) what is the right call there?
I am assuming we need to offer him serious money (and have demonstrated that we have or are very likely to have a competitive team) to have a shot. I also think that we need to be very close to the ballpark the Yankees or other teams might offer. If he stays, it will be interesting to see if he seeks a long-term or short term deal. In other words, does he stick around only as long as there is a real commitment to winning, or does he seek security . . .
BTW, a few months may only matter in horse-racing, but Ichiro’s not 33 until later this year.
Baseball analysts top prospects
18. Adam Jones, of: Mariners (AAA)
19. Jeff Clement, c: Mariners (AAA)
From a fantasy perspective, Jeff Clement is the Mariners best prospect. The list of power-hitting catchers at the Major League level is a short one, and a list Clement should be adding his name to by 2008. Despite his struggles coming back from injury in AAA, Clement has given the Mariners a lot of reason for optimism about their future backstop logjam. Given how quickly Clement should rise towards the top of any fantasy catcher list, keeper leaguers should have Clement ranked higher.
From a baseball standpoint, Jones is the better prospect. On the bases and in the field, Jones is superior. He brings a unique degree of athleticism to the game – his transition to the outfield has gone seamlessly. And if Jones joins Choo and Ichiro in a Major League outfield, it’s quite possible baseball will have never seen three stronger arms in the same outfield. At the plate, Jones has improved as the season has progressed, showing more patience and better contact skills.
Jones shouldn’t be a superstar on the Seattle Mariners, but he’ll be a good one for a long time.
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/07/wtny_midseason_4.php
That was just a crazy projection to give Ichiro only +1.5 wins for baserunning and defense….that is so ridiculous….he is one of the ten best baserunners in the game and one of the best defensive players in the game….why would people care about defense and baserunning if someone who is basically the best at both aspects only worth 2 games…Ichiro at 12.5 is an absolute bargain…and I dont see him slipping anytime soon
It’s not that crazy. He’s playing RF, not CF. And stolen bases are overrated.
Abreu has probably gone from underrated to overrated. For starters, he makes more than Ichiro ($13.6M). He also has a pretty big platoon split for his career (he’s hitting lefties much better this season, but given his career it seems unlikely he magically figured that out this year at age 32). Defensively he’s obviously not on par with Ichiro, and much of Abreu’s value is derived from his walk rate, an “old player” skill that doesn’t tend to age well.
Ichiro will sign a three- or four-year deal with an option year tacked on the end. I can’t imagine a seven-year contract or anything crazy like that.
I’m on fire today.
I said baserunner not steals sir…..being a great baserunner scores runs and gets wins….remember that great slide Ichiro had at home in early July….being a really fast/smart runner who can slide around a tag and steal bases scores more runs than others
#121– ah, skinny ‘fro’d Tony Gwynn…..
OK, baserunning. How big is the difference between the very best/smartest baserunner and the worst/dumbest baserunner? Ten plays/decisions a year, maybe? And not all of those will have run-scoring implications. And even if they did, 10 runs is basically one win.
People remember the close plays at the plate and the great slides, of course, but most of the time runners cross the plate standing up, uncontested, and being a great baserunner doesn’t come into play.
Tom Tippett came up at 6-12 runs on Ichiro’s superior baserunning in 2001 in the mini-study he did at Diamond Mind.
I was thinking of that study but hadn’t located it yet.
Ichiro’s baserunning as I recall used to be somewhat overrated because he got caught stealing more than people like Carlos Beltran, who went 38-40 or something ridiculous two years ago. But this year, Ichiro is what, 26-28? I don’t know quite what to make of that regarding his actual baserunning ability, but it seems like a dramatic improvement. I don’t know if that indicates he was unlucky before or lucky now or what, but I’d love to hear how relevant folks think this is to the discussion of his value on the basepaths.
I can’t imagine why anyone would trade Ichiro under any circumstance except if he expressed a firm desire to be moved, which won’t happen. From the team marketing standpoint alone, he’s worth his contract to any team, and as Dave point’s out in just one capacity, he’s significantly _underrated_ in his impact on team wins.
I like Abreu, and there are other Mariners I see as reasonable to deal in a swap for him, but Ichiro doesn’t make it on to the continent where they’d take that picture.