Comments on: Mariner Trade Value

By: BelaXadux

BelaXadux — Thu, 13 Jul 2006 03:02:48 +0000

I can’t imagine why anyone would trade Ichiro under any circumstance except if he expressed a firm desire to be moved, which won’t happen. From the team marketing standpoint alone, he’s worth his contract to any team, and as Dave point’s out in just one capacity, he’s significantly _underrated_ in his impact on team wins.

I like Abreu, and there are other Mariners I see as reasonable to deal in a swap for him, but Ichiro doesn’t make it on to the continent where they’d take that picture.

By: darrylzero

darrylzero — Wed, 12 Jul 2006 21:45:29 +0000

Ichiro’s baserunning as I recall used to be somewhat overrated because he got caught stealing more than people like Carlos Beltran, who went 38-40 or something ridiculous two years ago. But this year, Ichiro is what, 26-28? I don’t know quite what to make of that regarding his actual baserunning ability, but it seems like a dramatic improvement. I don’t know if that indicates he was unlucky before or lucky now or what, but I’d love to hear how relevant folks think this is to the discussion of his value on the basepaths.

By: JMB

JMB — Wed, 12 Jul 2006 20:16:36 +0000

I was thinking of that study but hadn’t located it yet.

By: DMZ

DMZ — Wed, 12 Jul 2006 19:30:48 +0000

Tom Tippett came up at 6-12 runs on Ichiro’s superior baserunning in 2001 in the mini-study he did at Diamond Mind.

By: JMB

JMB — Wed, 12 Jul 2006 19:20:35 +0000

OK, baserunning. How big is the difference between the very best/smartest baserunner and the worst/dumbest baserunner? Ten plays/decisions a year, maybe? And not all of those will have run-scoring implications. And even if they did, 10 runs is basically one win.

People remember the close plays at the plate and the great slides, of course, but most of the time runners cross the plate standing up, uncontested, and being a great baserunner doesn’t come into play.

By: msb

msb — Wed, 12 Jul 2006 19:16:40 +0000

#121-- ah, skinny 'fro'd Tony Gwynn.....

By: F-Rod

F-Rod — Wed, 12 Jul 2006 19:15:40 +0000

I said baserunner not steals sir…..being a great baserunner scores runs and gets wins….remember that great slide Ichiro had at home in early July….being a really fast/smart runner who can slide around a tag and steal bases scores more runs than others

By: JMB

JMB — Wed, 12 Jul 2006 19:15:27 +0000

Ichiro will sign a three- or four-year deal with an option year tacked on the end. I can’t imagine a seven-year contract or anything crazy like that.

I’m on fire today.

By: JMB

JMB — Wed, 12 Jul 2006 19:11:33 +0000

Abreu has probably gone from underrated to overrated. For starters, he makes more than Ichiro ($13.6M). He also has a pretty big platoon split for his career (he’s hitting lefties much better this season, but given his career it seems unlikely he magically figured that out this year at age 32). Defensively he’s obviously not on par with Ichiro, and much of Abreu’s value is derived from his walk rate, an “old player” skill that doesn’t tend to age well.

By: JMB

JMB — Wed, 12 Jul 2006 19:07:45 +0000

It’s not that crazy. He’s playing RF, not CF. And stolen bases are overrated.