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Adam Jones to the Majors
Ladies and Gentleman, your new starting centerfielder, Adam Jones.
The Mariners have been hyper-aggressive with promoting their prospects this year. There isn’t another club in the majors who is moving their young players through the system as quickly as the Mariners are. This move is a continuation of that philosophy - as soon as a player has shown that he is no longer struggling at a level, he is challenged with a promotion.
Adam Jones, for the last 6 weeks, has shown that he is no longer struggling at Triple-A. His splits by month:
April: .268/.286/.512, 82 AB, 22 H, 3 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 1 BB, 20 K
May: .208/.263/.368, 106 AB, 22 H, 4 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 8 BB, 23 K
June: .342/.405/.482, 114 AB, 39 H, 7 2B, 3 HR, 11 BB, 23 K
July: .308/.419/.692, 26 AB, 8 H, 1 2B, 3 HR, 5 BB, 1 K
The improvement the last six weeks jumps off the page. It’s most obvious in BB/K ratio, but it shows up across the board. He was striking out in nearly out of every four at-bats to start the year but cut that to one in six last month. His one strikeout in 26 at-bats so far in July, while a tiny sample, is pretty amazing, and a pretty blatant display of improvement.
For the last 140 at-bats, Adam Jones has been a monster in Triple-A. If that performance reflects his new true talent level, than he’s ready for the majors, and he could come up and be this year’s Jeff Francoeur.
However, there’s no way to know if that 140 at-bat sample is reflective of his current abilities with the bat. Scouts can help us, we can take some guesses, and we can hope, but in a sample that small, anyone can hit extremely well. Drawing any kind of firm conclusion from 140 at-bats that goes directly counter to the proceding 180 at-bats is unwise.
We can hope that Adam Jones turned a corner at the beginning of June, and this isn’t just a hot streak. Positive scouting reports are certainly encouraging, and the fact that he cleary has significant talent is also in his favor. But no one, not Bill Bavasi, not you or I, actually knows if Adam Jones has permanently implemented the things that have caused his run since June 1st into his repertoire, or if they’re going to dissipate the moment he sees a major league curveball.
From everyone I’ve talked to, Adam Jones has been killing fastballs in Triple-A, but still struggles mightily with anything offspeed. He’s done much better at no longer chasing that pitch, because he’s learning he can wait for something better, but he has not yet learned how to actually hit the pitch with any regularity. If he starts seeing a steady diet of breaking balls in the strike zone, he could be in trouble, because his current approach of crush-fastballs-and-lay-off-breaking-balls is rendered moot.
There’s also the matter of defense. He’s been playing center field for less than a year. While he has all kinds of physical skills, he’s still a raw defender. He still makes poor reads at times, gets bad jumps on balls, and runs inefficient routes to the ball. His athleticism will help him become a good defender in time, but he’s not there yet.
Almost every player with Jones’ skillset who has been called up to the majors has struggled, sometimes for several years. It is rare for a player with Jones’ offensive skillset to come up and dominate immediately. It’s certainly possible, as Jeff Francoeur showed last year, but Francoeur hasn’t been able to sustain his success from last year, and just like ‘05 Francoeur is a possibility, so is ‘06 Francoeur.
Adam Jones could be the answer in center field. It’s possible. But it’s also quite possible that he spends the first three months of his major league career getting intimidated by Safeco Field, staring at major league breaking balls for strike three, and having his confidence beaten down by an early promotion. The club could have left him in Tacoma, let him continue to learn and develop against Triple-A pitching with little pressure, and evaluated him in a context where he was playing against his peers.
Now? He’s been thrust into the middle of a pennant race and asked to learn to hit major league pitching in one of the toughest major league parks for a right-handed hitter in baseball. The M’s love to challenge their prospects - they just may have challenged Adam Jones too quickly for his sake, and for the team’s sake.
He’s a heck of a talent. But he wouldn’t be the first talent who fell on his face due to being promoted too quickly.
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Just when I was getting excited about him, they go and stunt his development.
Sheesh.
Does this mean Choo down, or is Jones taking Oliveros’ place?
Nope. I don’t agree with this move either, especially if it keeps Mr. Snelling in Tacoma, and Mr. Everett in the starting lineup.
Has it occurred to anyone that perhaps Everett has photographs of Hargrove in a “compromising” position?
Holy schnikes!
WOW.
I was hoping they would bring up Doyle first.
This would not count as a full year of service time right? Just like Felix last year? If so I like it…lets see what we got
I know we needed help in CF, but I have my doubts about this. Seems to me Jones could use at least a few more month in Tacoma.
Too bad we don’t still have Jamal Strong, he would have been a good guy to hold down CF for a while.
I don’t understand this move. He’s not ready in the field, and I’d feel a hell of a lot better if he had another half season like he’s had at bat.
And why NOT Doyle?????
Doyle is not a strong defensive CF, so he wouldn’t solve this particular problem. Although he should be solving our DH/LF issue IMO.
Obviously, Choo did not impress in the field, and no one in the organization is ready to trot Doyle out in center fulltime. I think this is clearly motivated by defense.
That’s not to say I like it.
Of cousrse, we could still DFA Everett to bring up Snelling. Or send down Choo.
Hargrove does not believe he has a DH problem, hence the release of Petagine and the ongoing use of Ibanez in LF. And presumably, no word on any plans to bring up Snelling.
Hargrove honestly believes, as strange as this sounds to all of us, that Carl Everett is one of the best DH’s in baseball.
I think this move tells us all we need to know about Ichiro’s willingness to play center. It may be an incorrect assumption, but you have to assume that Hargrove/Bavasi asked Ichiro if he would play the position for a while.
I think after Doyle’s injury plagued career a move to DH is perfect. Everett isn’t hitting anyway.
If they feel he’s ready defensively….then I guess Jones won’t do THAT much worse than Reed was doing, and he’s better than Bloomquist by default.
I’m excited to see him play, but he’s going to struggle atleast as bad as Jose Lopez did.
“Hargrove honestly believes, as strange as this sounds to all of us, that Carl Everett is one of the best DH’s in baseball.”
I don’t think that’s true. But I think he believes he WILL be on of the best DH’s in baseball.
Lopez was having more success in Triple A than Jones upon his initial callup. Considering Adam is the same age Pezzer was, I suppose it’s an apt comparison.
More importantly, IMHO, Lopez wasn’t still trying to learn a new position when he first came to the bigs.
13: Are you trying to say he thinks Everett will improve as the year goes on?
I hope Grover doesn’t think that, because Everett has been on the downhill side of his career for a while now…
#10– well, from one side. He obviously knows he can’t hit lefties as he’s been putting other guys in for a month against lefties…
#11– why would you assume that?
If this means Petagine and Everett are out so Doyle and Jones can come in, it’s defensible. Not wise, but defensible. If Jones is in and Doyle doesn’t see MLB pitching this year while Everett continues to hack, it’s not.
For the sake of, well my sanity really, I’m going to assume the Doyle/Everett swap will be a separate transaction to come shortly.
It also leaves Choo out of the loop for now, so perhaps it’s a Doyle/Choo swap coming, pushing Everett to the bench. Not that he’ll like that, so he’d be gone in a week. Bavasi must know this. Perhaps Everett is the first Mariner to get traded.
As to Jones, if he follows the Mariner Path, he’ll hit about .450 for 3 weeks, then .150 for the rest of the season. As long as he’s getting ABs, I doubt his development gets ’stunted.’ The team needs a real CF, he’s the best the team’s got right now, so I think he’ll play. He’ll be the worst hitter in most lineups, but he gets to see MLB pitching, and if it really doesn’t work, he goes back to Tacoma.
The worst news is for the team’s chances. They are still nominally in a race, so putting in an average defender with a probably-less-than-replacement-level bat is basically a white flag on this year. Hopefully that means it’s time to rid the team of the flotsam that has no future in Seattle.
If this is followed by about 5 more moves, it can be seen in context as a necessary evil. If this is the best the FO can do, it’s just evil.
#11 - I don’t know. Could just be a function of Bavasi’s aggressive approach to prospects. We need a CF, Choo had some time in the sun (and isn’t a gold glover), let’s see what Jones can do since he’s been tearing it up for a stretch. I don’t agree with it, but I am not ready to say Ichiro vetoed anything without something more to go on.
I hope that this is just the beginning of some more moves to come (Doyle up, Everett gone). It would at least make more sense then.
Also, just because Jones is called up, doesn’t necessarily mean he stays up here the entire year.
That was my first thought too, was that this move makes Choo kind of redundant.
So now Choo slides into the Roberto Petagine Memorial Bench Spot, and Jones CFs? This is bad for both players. I pray for more roster moves.
Well, on the bright side, this should signal the end of “Willie Bloomquist, platoon CF”. Actually, maybe not, as Jones seems to mysteriously struggle against lefties as well. I doubt Grover will be alert enough to figure that out, though.
I hope we pull Dave Hansen out of the middle of nowhere to occupy the Roberto Petagine Bench Spot and Choo goes back down if there isn’t more coming, simply because Dave Hansen is a better fit for the spot because
A. He sucks.
B. He’s a warm body.
C. If he doesn’t play which he won’t, it can’t hurt anything.
I’m not completely against this move right now, though it does seem odd. I expect that Hargrove gives Jones the chance to play for 15-20 games, since he is the only CF on the roster, but who really knows with him. Hopefully it will be a stopgap measure while the M’s find a CF out there.
Any information on how Choo was adjusting to ML pitching this year? Obviously the results have been poor, but it has only been 15-20 ABs, so that doesn’t tell us anything. Anybody see how Choo was doing?
I disagree, Benno — I’d rather it NOT be a stopgap. If he’s up, let him be up for the rest of the year. Using him for a handful of games makes even less sense to me.
A loit of this could be answered with the corresponding move. For instance, does Snelling get promoted, Choo demoted, Oliveros or Everett get designated, and Jones get purchased? If that’s the case, or some other combination, how does the line-up balance out? The 40 man roster is currently full, so, someone has to go off. I guess we will wait and see.
Any chance that they put Choo in left and move Ibanez to the DH role? What a trio of outfield arms that would be.
Seriously, somebody needs to ask Ichiro whether he has been asked to play CF and if not, whether he has offered to play CF.
I would like to continue to think of Ichiro in the most postitive light and this situation is not helping.
Ichiro was asked early last year if he’d play center, and he said no.
Did he say “no”, or was it more of a “I prefer to stay in RF” type of thing?
Well… That’s dissappointing to say the least.
I love how everyone has concluded that this will stunt Adam Jones’ development, before seeing a single AB or chance in CF in the bigs from Adam Jones.
In CF, even while developing, he’s no worse than Choo at worst, who looked more lost than Wily Mo Pena in CF. Would you rather watch Choo watch balls drop, or watch Willie do the same while hitting 230/260/320?
As a hitter, Adam struggled to start the year, and then ramped back up to respectable numbers while posing a solid K/BB ratio for the first time in his pro career.
Also, this is not the absolute end of Choo’s career. If this team can open up a corner OF spot or DH (only assuming Doyle can’t go), he can still get ABs. As it stands, he can still spell guys. If Hargrove’s not going to use him, that’s a strike on Hargrove, not on Choo or Jones or Bavasi for calling him up.
This team’s shooting themselves in the foot in far worse ways than calling up a talented converted CF and giving him a shot to play himself into the starting spot.
Derek,
During the All Star break, he said he’d consider it if asked. I thought his earlier comments (last year sometime?) were along the lines of “Give me some time to prepare and I might do it.” I must have missed his flat-out refusal last year.
He has played in CF before, most memorably (to me) when he played CF to give Buhner a game in RF?
Ichiro’s refusal in 2004 was not a public one.
OK, biggest question — are they gonna let Jones play in the AAA All-Star Game tonight?!
The game’s in Toledo, OH, so it wouldn’t be that difficult for him to play the game and then join the team in Toronto tomorrow. Or, they could send Choo back down to take his spot (Choo was originally a PCL All-Star selection prior to his call up).
Stupid move or not, I find this rather exciting. I want to watch Adam Jones play and I want to see him develop in front of my eyes. I don’t know who it was that said it earlier, but if Jones can manage a respectable line while playing respectable CF he’d still be more valuable to this team this year then Jeremy Reed had been.
I mean, he doesn’t have a lot ot beat from Reed’s offensive line and Jones already is a better CF.
JMB - I would normally agree that a temporary move would not be good. But there is a lot that I just don’t know about this team right now. If Choo is completely overmatched at the plate (which I can’t tell right now), and is a poor defensive CF, then putting Jones out there is okay for the short run. This assumes that Bavasi can’t find a team willing to give up a CF right now but expects to find one closer to the trade deadline. It also assumes that Hargrove will play Jones almost every day.
If this is leading to Doyle being brought up, then it doesn’t make sense since the team could simply bring Doyle up right now.
Ichiro played a couple games in center back in ‘02 when Lou was frustrated with Cameron.
So essentialy, if we had a manager with some balls, he would tell Ichiro he is playing CF, not request his permission!
Essentially.. two “L”’s..
40
Yeah, if it was four years ago and July 11 2006.
There are worse mistakes, true, but why add to the scales?
Well, I’m hoping that Hargrove doesn’t just let him rot on the bench (which is what is gonna happen to DOyle, if he ever gets called up–I get deja vu with Jim Pressley/Edgar Martinez there…..)
I know he’s never coming back, but I sure miss Lou.
That explains it then. Thanks Derek. Like it or not Ichiro has reached prima donna status. By that I mean, not that he is full of himself (I don’t know him), but that the team –probably justifiably– is more concerned about making him angry in the middle of the season and as contract extensions loom in the distance. The M’s want to take a real stab at him, recognize him as an elite player, and if we can try other options that won’t make him freak out, then that’s what we’ll try first. Not exactly making sure J-Lo has the right type of spring water in her dressing room, but probably the baseball equivalent.
and NOT July 11…
http://retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B08170SEA2002.htm
http://retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B08180SEA2002.htm
http://retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B08190DET2002.htm
Cameron was batting .218/.325/.429 at the time.
Huh. The added scouting info on Jones makes me even more leery on this promotion….
Hey–where did you get the information he’s been promoted? The M’s haven’t announced it, and it’s not on AP. Maybe I’m blind.
I can’t find any mention of it either. I’m still looking to see where his promotion has been announced.
Great move, as dictated by the circumstances. Jones is tearing up AAA over the last couple months and is “on top” of AAA pitching. I don’t expect him (or any rookie) to succeed at the MLB level right away but if he is ready for the next step then start the learning process, especially if there is a need.
Put another way, I would rather see him struggle for the rest of the year and be ready for next year than start the job next year and struggle for half a season.
is this a rumor or did it actually happen? I don’t see anything about this online right now at M’s website, or even Googling it….
Dave has sources you don’t have.
In Dave we trust!
Dave? Is this a rumor, or from a “source within the organization,” or what?
Time for the Revenge of Player A…
Players A and B were both minor league shortstops. Both spent time in AAA. All 3 were called up to the majors to start every day by the age of 20.
Player A in AAA, age 20: .360/.412/.654
Player B in AAA, age 20: .295/.342/.505
Both of those players, by the way, were Tacoma Rainiers and Seattle Mariners, and you should now know their names: Alex Rodriguez and Jose Lopez.
A-Rod took about 250 plate appearances to start hitting. Jose took even a bit longer.
Bavasi’s trying to draw to an inside straight here: I could add Miguel Tejada (.233/.298/.384 at age 22), Aramis Ramirez ( .235/.296/.351) and give you a pretty long list of guys who owned their minors but took 200-400 plate appearances to start hitting worth a damn in the Big Show.
I’m not saying it will stunt his development, necessarily. Lots of kids get brought up to struggle for a while in the majors and do just fine. What I am saying is that we’d better be prepared for .220/.260/.380 out of our CF the rest of the way- what Reed was hitting, basically.
Dave has never steered us wrong before, and I’m sure he isn’t starting.
I’ll admit that I haven’t been able to watch any of Choo’s starts over the last week or so, but what on earth could he have done over 11 AB and 4 games in the field to warrant reversing course on making him Reed’s replacement? The Mariners should feel basically the same way about the relative merits of Choo and Jones as they did on Independence Day when they decided to call up Choo.
I guess maybe if Jones gets to play in the AAA All-Star game, then maybe delaying his call-up could be chalked up to rewarding him for his AAA exploits, but who would rather play in a AAA ASG than be called up to the majors?
I assume this means Oliveros gets sent down as the corresponding transaction to keep the roster at 25? Since Petagine would seem to be a better pinch-hitting option than Choo, I also don’t see why it wouldn’t have made more sense to swap Choo for Oliveros and then Oliveros for Jones, if for no other reason than so you can keep Petagine around as insurance against Doyle/Everett being not healthy enough to man the DH spot. Ack, I should just wait to find out the corresponding moves before I think about this any more.
Lookout Jeff reminds us that “Adam Jones has a surprisingly low .504 OPS against lefties this year. Ordinarily this would be enough for Hargrove to arrange a platoon with Willie Ballgame, but Jones is a right-handed hitter, so we could be in for all sorts of tactical hilarity.”
oh, in a sidebar to his (pre-promotion) Adam Jones piece Jason Churchill noted earlier: “Two sources inside the organization have strongly hinted that the M’s are “almost certain” to make at least two moves by this weekend’s series in Toronto. One of them is expected to be the optioning of catcher Luis Oliveros back to Double-A San Antonio. The other? When I asked why Chris Snelling hasn’t already been called up, this is the response I got — “Who says he hasn’t been?”
huh. bunch of wags over there.
Wow. Pretty big news. I am excited that they are doing something (and looking forward to seeing Jones play), but I am a bit worried it is too early for him. I would feel 1000x better to see Everett DFA’ed ASAP, and definitely before his 2007 option vests (please tell me it hasn’t yet!!).
I was kind of happy for the M’s to have an extra day off (more for Ichiro and Lopez), but now I am upset we don’t get to see Jones until Friday!
Dave? Is this a rumor, or from a “source within the organization,†or what?
It will probably be announced tomorrow.
Assuming it’s true, Jones can’t do much worse than Jeremy Reed, so why not bring him up? He isn’t helping us win games playing in Tacoma. And early MLB struggles are part of the territory for young players:
Mike Schmidt, 1973: .196
Barry Bonds, 1986: .223
Vladimir Guerrero, 1996: .185
One has to question the way the team has handled the roster this year.
I, for one, was pushing for a Guardado trade in the offseason, because I saw him as too much of a risk player to hope that he’d have a higher value at the trade deadline. Settling for Travis Chick when we could have received a better talent in December or January is trouble.
Further, and this may be speaking with the benefit of hindsight, but the Borchard release sure was (and still is) puzzling. Hickey over at the PI blog has commented on this.
Next, if management really felt Choo wasn’t ready, why risk Jones? It’s clear Jones is the more-highly regarded prospect - I’d rather see us retard Choo’s growth rather than Jones’. Besides, doesn’t everyone agree Choo is better prepared to play in the bigs, even if he has a lower ceiling?
Finally, Snelling can’t play center, so he isn’t really germane to the Jones callup, but I’d much rather see him promoted to take over for Everett against righties.
The madness continues…
Assuming it’s true, Jones can’t do much worse than Jeremy Reed, so why not bring him up?
“Better than Jeremy Reed” isn’t the barometer we should be using to figure out who should play center field for the M’s while they’re in a pennant race.
He isn’t helping us win games playing in Tacoma.
If he never goes back to the minors, he’ll be eligible for free agency after the 2012 season. If he had not been called up this year, and spent a month or so in the minors next year, he would not be a free agent until after the 2013 season.
He might not be helping us win games right now by playing in Tacoma, but he could certainly be helping us win games down the line.
And early MLB struggles are part of the territory for young players…
They don’t have to be. If a team allows a player to add polish in the minors, instead of in the majors, they can drastically reduce the length of MLB struggles. While listing guys like Schmidt, Bonds, and Guerrero, don’t forget Jose Guillen and Aramis Ramirez, who the Pirates called up early and then gave up on due to their lack of development at the major league level.
We’re not saying this will, for certain, hurt Adam Jones’ development. But to ignore the possibility that it could is foolish.
61 - How much better can Dave answer that question than he did in the intitial post?
45 - I think it’s absurd to decide Ichiro is a prima donna based on the information you have.
As to the call-up, I agree with everything Dave wrote… and I really, really hope this doesn’t have anything to do with us not seeing Doyle up here.
Any word on a Doyle call up?
To me, this move likely signifies the end of Jeremy Reed’s tenure in Seattle. If Bavasi thought that Reed would play again in Seattle (and the indications are that his injury is not going to keep him out of action for too long), wouldn’t he have left Choo in as a stop-gap? Jones coming up suggests a longer-term move — i.e., that Jones is now the man.
All in all, I am sad to see the team give up on Reed. He deserves more time — I think he will have a solid career, unfortunately with someone other than the Mariners.
All that said, I am curious to see what we have in Adam Jones.
I was looking up some stats on MILB.com yesterday, and I noticed that Adam Jones did not have a minor league team listed next to his name. Now I know why.
I think enough has been said here to remind us that AJ is probably as good offensively as anyone else we have had in CF this year, and better defensively. Moreover, he is almost certain to improve. The move doesn’t hurt the M’s in the short term. Neither does this have to be a permanent call-up. If AJ proves to be intimidated at the highest level, he can begin the same merry-go-round with Tacoma that Lopez rode.
I’m not as inclined to think that a taste of the big-leagues hurts the truly talented. That taste has to be sweet as hell, and can only make those that believe in themselves want it even more. I don’t see a downside to this at all. If AJ tanks and never recovers - then it simply means he was overrated to begin with.
Far more significant - to me - are the other issues regarding DH and LF. Everett has to go, obviously. Ideally (me playing manager/GM here) Ibanez would DH and split time in LF with Snelling. Perez DHs against RHers. Other than that, Morse should get a spot start once in a while at 3B and even 1B. Beltre and Sexson might take it personal if they have to earn their playing time - but so what? Give them some competition.
As far as Ichiro goes, why should he play CF when he is one of the best RFers in the game? CF would take more out of him, and we couldn’t possibly find a better fit in RF.
So Dave, what do you think this means for Snelling? Also do you expect Piniero to start against the Yankees next week or someone else?
Ichiro feels, and we can argue over whether this is justified or not, that center field requires too much running and diving, and particularly that his hitting game relies so much on his health and foot speed that moving him from right would dramatically reduce his ability to contribute offensively.
So here’s the argument, in a nutshell:
Melvin: Hey, I want you to play center field, because you can see Winn is absolutely lost out there and I don’t know when it’s going to get better.
Ichiro: I don’t want to play center, for the following well-thought-out reasons.
Melvin: I still want you to play center.
Ichiro: I still don’t want to play center.
At which point, it escalates up the chain because it’s Ichiro and not, say, Bloomquist or some other down-roster guy, and Ichiro doesn’t move.
I don’t see that as being a dick move at all, and certainly not in the self-aggrandizing way we’ve seen when other players refuse defensive demotions (like Alfonso Soriano, for instance).
Plus, the fact that Ichiro’s never attempted to use his massive popularity in any way to influence the argument or contract discussions or anything… Ichiro rocks, is what I’m saying, and if that’s what Ichiro wants to do, so be it.
JAS,
Morse will have a hard time playing with a knee injury.
I don’t know, I guess all I can really say about this is, “wow, there’s nothing I can do about this so I may as well enjoy the chance to watch the most exciting M’s prospect play in the big leagues.” I don’t claim to have any idea if he’s ready or if this will hurt his development or what. But it should be an exciting ride.
It is too bad the Ichiro CF thing. Ibanez/Choo in RF and Ibanez/Snelling in left would probably have a better chance to get us to the playoffs. Exciting though, definitely exciting.
66 - Giving up on Reed at this point wouldn’t just be sad, it would be insanely idiotic. There’s a reason we gave up Freddy for him (and Olivo and Morse). Obviously we saw some talent there. If, now, after 2 years, we’ve discovered that Reed can’t play (remember, he’s still a pup), Bavasi should be questioning his scouting department rather than just cutting Reed loose.
But this certainly does limit Reed’s value, doesn’t it (to levels even lower than they are at now…)?
What I fear is that we’ll platoon Jones and not play him everyday. Jones needs to be playing everyday, whether at AAA or in the big leagues.
Why not Doyle?
I read an article on Monday in the Paper (Times or PI, I don’t remember), Ichiro was quoted as saying “If they ask me, I’ll consider it.” on the shift to CF. Why not ask it?
DMZ, thanks, I needed to be reminded why Ichiro is more qualified to have an opinion about this than I am. I knew it was true, but I’m glad to feel like I have ammunition to defend him now.
73 — I don’t think Bavasi would cut Reed loose (if, by that, you meant surrender him for nothing). I do think he will trade him, either this season or during the off-season. And I think it will be a mistake born of a lack of patience.
I completely missed the Morse injury. Bleh. I also typo-ed on Perez - obviously he should DH against LHers. And - HAH - I beat DMZ to the “CF takes more effort” insight. Score one for the guy who gets deleted when he disagrees.
Well if this is what we’re doing I’m excited. You can argue about Snelling and moving Ichiro over being better moves, but it’s good to see the organization not settling for mediocre performance in CF, and giving Jones a shot. I’d rather see them explore the upside of Jones in CF than continue to run Bloomquist and Choo out there. Choo really cannot play CF except in case of emergency. Not sure which is worse - Choo’s routes or Bloomquist’s arm. Either way, we need a better solution.
What I fear is that we’ll platoon Jones and not play him everyday. Jones needs to be playing everyday, whether at AAA or in the big leagues.
WORD!
Sorry, just don’t trust Hargrove to handle this right–he shouldn’t try to ease him into the big leauges….if they promoted him, they should use him….
I don’t like this move. For a variety of reasons expressed above, this helps the M’s very little in the present. And it more than likely hurts them in the future. I was getting excited about a Doyle call-up, yet it seems that Jones replacing Oliveros (who replaced Petagine) would halt such a move. So Choo sees no playing time, but at least this prevent Willie Ballgame from getting he start against lefties. The silver lining
2006 Tacoma Rainers Win 18th Straight Pacific Coast League Title
“Junior’s almost ready for the Majors,” M’s brass says.
One thing to keep in mind is that the M’s will likely fade away in the AL West race in the next two weeks — six against Toronto, three against the Yankees, and three against the Red Sox (and no games against the NL) will do that to you. Thus, we will likely be in a “let’s get the youngsters up here and see what they can do” mode anyway. The Jones call-up fits in with that strategy, if a bit premature.
I highly doubt the Mariners are looking at the upcoming schedule and conceding that they are out of the race. It seems more likely to me that they want to promote Jones with enough time left before the trade deadline to deterimine if they need to trade for someone to play center field. (This is totally a guess, though.)
Remember, this team was optimistic in May when things were at their bleakest–a rough stretch ahead in the schedule isn’t going to make them give up when they are 2 1/2 games out of first place.
Why wouldn’t the Mariners move Reed to LF when he comes back and move Ibanez to DH? They could DFA Everett, and call up Doyle to platoon at LF and DH with Reed and Ibanez.
Why doesn’t the team DFA or trade Everett no matter what other move(s) they make?
I just don’t see the point of having him on the roster at all, and I’ve felt that way since they signed him.
82 — will everyone just stop with “we’re going to fade against good teams” already?
During that same 2 weeks, OAK faces 6 vs BOS, 3 vs BAL, and 3 vs DET. Maybe the Orioles are a little worse, but the A’s don’t have a cakewalk, either.
TEX faces 4 vs BAL, 3 vs TOR, 3 vs NYY, 3 vs CWS, and a bonus 1-day trip to BOS squeezed in to make up a rainout. I’m sure that will have everyone perky.
The Angels, now, they might get to make a move. They get 3 vs KC, 3 vs CLE, and 3 vs TB. Or they might just go back to being bad.
oops. 6 vs TB
86 — OK, how do YOU think we’ll do against the Jays, Yanks, and Sox. We did well against the NL West. That’s it. We’ve shown NO ability to do well against good AL teams. I would be surprised if we win more than 4 games against those teams (that would put us at 4-8).
I agree that the A’s and Rangers don’t have a cakewalk, either, but I think they will fare a bit better than we will.
Time will tell.
85 - Obviously having Everett on the roster makes no sense, but does Reed have any positive contribution to make in LF or should the Mariners simply look to trade him once he comes off the DL?
I don’t think we should run up the white flag of surrender before the battle even begins.
But bringing up Jones is not a surrender. What were our other options? Choo or WFB? Doyle isn’t a fit for CF, Bohn? Nah… Overpay in a trade to pick up a decent veteran CF with no future with this team? No thanks!
It’s not the best situation to be in, but I can think of worse ways to handle it. Like I said in an earlier post, it’s too bad we don’t still have a guy ike Jamal Strong floating around in AAA. I think he would have been a good fit for this situation. Plus, he could take over WFB’s pinch-running role if WFB happened to be playing that day.
I agree that we shouldn’t throw up the white flag. That wasn’t what I was suggesting. Rather, I was just making the point that calling up Jones may have happened ANYWAY if we fall out of the race (which I think we are likely to do in the next three weeks).
Since we’re talking about the FO’s fascination with “challenging” prospects such as Jones, Tui, etc.
How does this affect the “lesser” prospects that are forced to fill the roles the other guys vacate as they move up? As Jones jumped from AA to AAA, someone probably had to move from A to AA to take his spot (I’m guessing) and the same with his jump from AAA to the majors.
Do all of these quick promotions have a trickle down effect on the other developing players?
89 — My take on Reed is that he’s a decent CF but inadequate offensively (even if he lives up to his minor league stats) to play a corner. He’d be a huge upgrade on defense over Ibanez in left, but he’s not hitting. Is a stint in AAA to work on his hitting the answer for him right now?
I can’t help but think that much of Reed’s offensive struggles are due to the hand and wrist injuries he’s had. Although his approach at the plate has looked pretty questionable at times.
Raises glass in toast of Adam Jones…
Here’s to hoping that this doesn’t come back to bite the M’s more than a trip to the freely-available-Replacement-level-CF-talent-dumpster would! I mean, heck, there’s gotta be a Wilson Valdez type for center field out there for nothing somewhere, right? Or do things like “freely-available talent” not apply to certain defensive positions…
Of course, being in a semi-pennant race probably influences this decision a little bit, as does the immense level of talent that Jones has. But I’ve always been a skeptic of the “freely-available talent” theory in the first place. I’m an admitted slow learner, though, so that might explain things a bit…
Thingray makes a great point. The team isn’t conceding the season by bringing up Jones, and while its not the move people wanted to see this year, it makes sense. The trade deadline is at the end of the month, and this move not only give the M’s an opportunity to see if they are buyers or sellers, but other teams the same chance. If the team plays well over the next 2-3 weeks, then go and get a veteran player to play CF (or put in a waivier claim). If the team falls off, keep AJ on the team (or bring in a short term fix if he is really struggling with the bat).
I agree that it sucks to lose an option year as well as the accelerated timeline to arbitration and free agency, but sometimes its what has to happen. There is some good to this, especially if Bavasi is smart (which many may question).
I’m not thrilled with this move at all….why start his service time to *challenge him*?
[look it up]
95: Hiram Bocachica.
88 — Using BP’s estimate of team strength as a starting place gives the next two weeks as
OAK 5-7
TEX 7-7
ANA 7-5
SEA 5-7
One standard deviation is +/- 2 games. I don’t think TEX and ANA are as good as BP thinks, either. So…not good, but “I’d be surprised to see them win more than 4″ is pretty harsh.
KJR is reporting that “according to Rainiers broadcaster Mike Curto” Adam Jones is at the Triple-A All Star Game, but the Mariners have requested that he not play in the game. They didn’t report that he’s being recalled, but it’s kind of obvious that that’s the reason the M’s don’t want him playing in the game tonight.
That sucks for Jones. They should at least let him play an inning, or get an AB in the Triple-A All-Star Game.
Bocachica! Always one of my favorite names. He would have been a good fit as a stop-gap in this situation.
100 - Harsh? Yes. Realistic? I think so.
I agree that we shouldn’t throw up the white flag. That wasn’t what I was suggesting. Rather, I was just making the point that calling up Jones may have happened ANYWAY if we fall out of the race (which I think we are likely to do in the next three weeks).
Well, no, I think the point is that a lot of people would not have brought him up in that case ANYWAY, even if we were that far out….
100 - Harsh? Yes. Realistic? I think so.
Um, no. Or at least, not in the way you think.
THey way the projects go out, you could win only four, and the rest of the division only wins three. What then?
I’ll take that bet — I say they’ll win 5 or more, you say 4 or less.
105 - You’ve missed my point again. I was suggesting that BAVASI likely would have brought him up anyway once the M’s fall out of the race. Whether that would have been a good move or not is a different question.
107 — You’re on. And I hope you’re right.
106 — Not sure I understand your point. But, if the point you were trying to make is that the M’s could go 4-8 and still be in the weak AL West race, I agree, though I don’t think that is likely.
So, anybody want to bet if Jones starts the first game back from the break?
I bet he does.
105 - You’ve missed my point again. I was suggesting that BAVASI likely would have brought him up anyway once the M’s fall out of the race. Whether that would have been a good move or not is a different question.
I definitely don’t agree. Aggressive promotion policy or no, there were definitely things Jones could have been working on at Tacoma. With a healthy Reed, there’d be no need to bring Jones up if the team was out of contention (at least before September) because you still need to see what Reed can do over a full season. With an injured Reed, there’s STILL no need because Jones hasn’t proven himself at Tacoma.
I see that Justin Leone just broke up the International Leagues’ no-hitter in the 5th
FWIW, Drayer has also opined that on top of battling the wrist, Reed found it hard to deal with the fact that he wasn’t having success, having always hit at all levels…
110 - He’s gotta. All logic points to it.
Not to say that anything Hargrove does is logical.
112 - I agree with that. I wouldn’t have brought Jones up now or if the M’s fall out of the race. But Bavasi obviously has a different view and I think he clearly would have brought Jones up later this season (after the trade deadline) had the M’s fallen out of the race. So, this call-up only accelerates that by a few weeks over what we would have seen in any event.
Thingray - I’m not sure whether you’re in Washington or not, but bear in mind that online gambling is a felony in this state.
What do you expect from a state whose slogan is, “Say WA!”?
Yeah, I’m in Washington. Hope the gambling police isn’t watching!
#102. It doesn’t suck that much for Jones as he wasn’t actually voted onto the PCL all-star team. Choo was, but once Choo got called up, Jones was going to be his replacement. And in one interview/article I read, he sort of whined about it, saying that he’d been looking forward to going home to sleep in his own bed. So I’m sure he’s not all broken up about it. Though really, if the Ms are just going to screw over Choo in this whole mess, then maybe HE would have been excited to play in the all-star game he got voted into.
Further, with regard to Jones’ improvement…Yeah, I’ve been watching it. Kid hits the ball hard, runs like the wind, has a great arm.
But…with regard to his monthly splits, it might be worth noting that the Rainiers schedule during June & July had them playing the cellar dwellers in the PCL. 4 games against Fresno (.389 win percent, bottom of their division), 4 games against Colorado Springs (.429 win percent, bottom of their division), 8 games each against Sacramento and Portland (each 3rd in their division and 13 games back of the division leaders, each under .500), 8 games against Las Vegas (2nd in their division but still 12 games back), and a whopping 5 games (3 against Salt Lake, 2 against Tucson) versus division leading teams both with over .600 win percentage).
The April & May schedule on the other hand, had the team facing Salt Lake 10 times, as well as facing other division leaders Round Rock and Nashville.
Jones is improving, no doubt. But he’s also been feasting on lousy teams for a little while now.
I wish him well but this move worries me for all the reasons Dave enumerated and more.
I guess we should all just wish Jones the best of luck, and hope his natural talent allows him to succeed at the next level! I just hope that he at least gets his playing time, and doesn’t rot on the bench. THAT would be a disaster!
Please free Doyle next, please?
Oh, and I hate what this essentially does to Choo. He deserved to get a better trial, and had (I thought) really improved from last year to this - more of an emotional/maturity improvement that was reflecting well in his game, from everything I’d read. I’m a softie, but I hate to see these players who have beaten so many odds just to play in AAA finally get called up only to be screwed around with and have their confidence or motivation destroyed. Livingston is FINALLY starting to pull it back together after Hargrove’s abusive use of him earlier this year.
It’s kind of like somebody said above, this strategy of challenging the most talented has ripple effects - both on those that come behind them to fill their place, but also on those that have been pushed aside to make way for them - like a Choo or a Livingston or a Reed, effectively diminishing their value a bit.
I know I’m gonna get killed by your comments, however IMHO I feel Adam Jones has a larger upside than your boy Doyle. Don’t get me wrong, I really, really like Doyle, however I feel that after watching him in Tacoma this past weekend, that he should be strictly a DH. To me, Jones, as we all know, is a 5 tool player. I would rather have a 5 tool player roaming centerfield than an injury prone DH trying to keep his knees, wrists, and any other part healthy trying to play an outfield position.
With this current move, I feel the Mariners have, in a way, said they don’t feel they have the horses to win the division this year. OR they are preparing to make some deals and are showcasing some of their minor league talent (which I honestly doubt)
Anyhow, lets hope in the next few weeks, Hargrove is replaced by Rohn and Doyle gets called up after Rex gets the boot.
A little realism on Doyle. He is left handed. So is C Rex. Unless we see a DFA for C Rex shortly, any call up of Doyle is to protect him from injury….he would be the new Petagine. Would Grover sit Ibanez, no. Sit lefty C Rex, no, play Doyle CF, no, RF? ha ha
Oh, been out of town, has anyone decoded Ichiro’s comments yet?
122 - I think the Hargrove reluctance to sit Doyle may be waning. I was impressed/surprised that he was disciplined about not starting Carl in NL parks, for example.
On givng up:
I had a mini-rant on this earlier this year, but the narrow mindset that bringing in youth or trading away veterans equals giving up is bogus.
Replacing Carl with Doyle, for example, would be the opposite of giving up. Heck, as much as I’m not crazy about the move, bringing up Jones at this moment could make the team better now. In fact, my concerns about the move are all about the future. I won’t be surprised at all if he makes the team better in the short term.
It drives me bonkers when teams are reluctant to bring up youth or trade away vets because they’re not quite out of it yet… more often than not, it seems, bad teams that “give up” and play youth actually get better. Not a shock because if you are a bad team, whatever you are doing is obviously not working.
Trading away stars or good players for prospects or cash is giving up. Anything else shouldn’t be put into the same category.
God, I hope this is a precursor to bringing up Doyle.
Dave, without going into specifics, has your information on the team plans changed? The rest of it, aside from the Jones call-up?
Here’s an excerpt from the Associated Press’ first-half analysis of the season:
SEATTLE — Christmas hasn’t come early for these middling Mariners.
Thanksgiving has.
“We should thank our lucky stars, I guess,” infielder-outfielder Willie Bloomquist said with a chuckle. “For us to start off the way we did and only be 21/2 back, we’ll take it.”
Seattle’s catalyst was speaking last weekend immediately after his skittish team ended a 2-7 homestand that included a six-game losing streak — the longest at home since 2000. That trumped a six-game winning streak from the week before.
It also made thoughts of contention seem more like hallucination.
The last-place losers of at least 90 games in each of the past two seasons are in two familiar places entering Friday’s second-half restart at Toronto: Last place and below .500.
But — a-ha! — this season, 43-46 is good enough to be within 21/2 games of first-place Oakland and Texas in the mediocre AL West.
If the Mariners were in the AL East, they’d be 111/2 games out. Were they in the Central Division, they’d be choking on Detroit and Chicago’s fumes, 161/2 back.
So go ahead, Mariners, hallucinate.
“I still think when we click, we’re going to be the team to beat,” Bloomquist said.
To me, there are two issues, forcing Jones to learn too many things on the job at once, before he’s ready, and at the risk of shattering his confidence. That’s real and the most serious one. But burning service time in a potentially star player’s lowest performing years isn’t irrelevant. If the Mariners hadn’t put A Rod in the majors for extended periods when he wasn’t ready, they would have had him around in 2001 an extra year of MVP performance….
[Clicked too fast] I’m not saying Jones will ever equal A Rod. Just that if you’re thinking longterm, there’s a cost to have players learn on the job before they’re ready to perform
Dave, without going into specifics, has your information on the team plans changed? The rest of it, aside from the Jones call-up?
Everett’s still not long for the line-up, but Doyle may not be coming up on Friday after all. Last I heard, things were still undecided there.
I know I’m gonna get killed by your comments, however IMHO I feel Adam Jones has a larger upside than your boy Doyle.
Everyone feels that way. Jones can play center, and potentially at a very high level. Doyle’s an LF/DH, which hurts his potential immensely.
Doyle’s more major league ready than Jones is, however.
The Everett DFA and Doyle call-up would be like Christmas in July.
Jones’ll be traded for Jacque Jones. That’s my prediction and I’m sticking to it. Brass want to showcase him on the east coast this month.
131. Agreed. Too bad at this rate it looks like it will be closer to that other Christmas.
Wasn’t this something they should have thought about before calling up Choo? I think Bavasi bases his decisions on daily games of pin the promotion on the minor leaguer - blindfolded. He brought Choo up, hasn’t given him nearly enough to time to succeed or fail, and now is replacing him with Jones. He should have learned the Morse lesson: sometimes hitting well in your first 50 at bats doesn’t mean you’re going to be a superstar major leaguer. Conversely, with Choo, not hitting well in the same number also means nothing.I just hope that since they’ve already screwed Choo, they at least give Jones a real chance to stick.
Well, Choo does have value as a 4th outfielder. That’s exactly what he’ll be.
I have exactly the concerns for Jones which you express in this post. His skillset is definitely one that can be exploited by major league pitchers. I think his growth as a hitter is real, but I also think he’s been on a hot streak, murdering the pitches he can handle which mask his existing weakneses. Even if he never becomes a proficient offspeed hitter, he needs to learn to protect the plate; his improved numbers now show that he’s making strides there, but probably not enough for success at the Major League level. I would be far happier if he spent the entire year at Tacoma as he could really benefit from the development time, especially with regard to his outfield D.
I can’t call this promotion a disaster, but I just don’t think it reflects good judgment. Bavasi and Fontaine hope to repeat with Adam what they did with Jose Lopes last year, and to justify their jobs in part I don’t doubt. I would have been much happier if the team had lined up a back-up CFer in the last offseason, and were turning to him now with Reed out of action—but that’s not how it was.
Regarding Doyle, I’m concerned about him playing 3/4 time in what is still nominally a pennant race; I’d like to see him with more time off than that, and a cautious approach. I also don’t see any way that he can be given the full time DH slot against RHP while Everett is still on the team and make that work in the clubhous. No can do. The team needs to cut the cord on Carl before they do this kind of promotion, so this situation needs to be thought all the way through. With the Ms FO, that’s asking a lot, I know.
Ichiro is never going to play CF in Seattle. We can just forget this.
BelaXadux,
I understand your concern with Snelling, but is resting him that often really going to do him much good? I guess what I am saying is when do you judge him to be perfectly healthy? I think he’s as healthy now as he’s ever going to be, and he’s either going to stay healthy or he’s going to get hurt. I’m not sure scaling back his playing time would do anyone any good.
135 - “I would have been much happier if the team had lined up a back-up CFer in the last offseason, and were turning to him now with Reed out of action—but that’s not how it was.”
Lawton
Plus his major injuries (ACL) seem to be related more to quick movements, rather than injuries that are from day to day wear. Playing him less isn’t really going to lessen the chance that he doesn’t tear his ACL rounding 1st base.
138, actually, Borchard.
Well, in all fairness Lawton is a terrible CF. You might as well throw Choo out there.
And Derek in #70, I’m glad to hear a semi-confirmation in that on Ichrio because while I have no inside sources that seemed and seems the obvious reason Ichi doesn’t want to play CF. His hitting game relies inordinately on his legs, and defense in CF requires significantly more running, and significantly more plays. It sounds selfish, but which would you rather have in September: a) Ichi’s fantastic defense in RF and him hitting ~.340, of b) his outstanding defense in CF and him hitting ~.290? We can see what his choice is, and I wouldn’t say that it’s a bad choice. The Ms certainly won’t force him to play CF if he is constructively unwilling to do so.
Everything Ichiro has done since he came here is geared to him getting his legs last into a September pennant race, and ideally the postseason. This is why Ichiro coasts in April historically, for example. It’s also why his stolen bases attempted is down to a managable number these last couple years from his first couple years in Seattle. And so on. He wants his game to last to the end of September. That’s my read on it, anyway.
Doyle is not a CFer. Doyle shouldn’t be playing in the outfield on a regular basis, at least not this year. Even the notion of him being given a glove and waved toward the deep part of Safeco by his manager makes me feel queasy. He’s a fine outfielder in LF, but he’s had multiple surgeries and wracked up his arms playing defense, too. Just Say No(t Too Much D), Thank You.
Oh, I’m sorry were you talking about Doyle playing CF in that last post? I thought you were talking about playing as a DH. It makes more sense now! LOL!
#137, Doyle had surgery to put in an ACL graft last September, as I recall. He should play part time ALL of this year, and have a day off in the field if he’s even a little stiff getting out of bed in the morning, plus whatever the trainer has scheduled. It’s not about the graft per se, it’s about his leg muscles compensating well when they’re stiff or the knee’s a little swollen. By next year, you can anticipate that his legs will compensate as well as they’re going to.
I’m not saying that with any medical background, btw. But ten months after a major surgery on a knee _which has historically been unstable through multiple operations_ is early to push ANYTHING. So push nothing. This year isn’t about Doyle’s ‘development;’ we know he can hit. It’s about getting him healthy, and his learning to manage his legs in their present state. Which is exactly why I’m not exactly keen on him being thrown over the wall into a pennant race where high-ups in the organization are trying to save their jobs by _severely overpromoting their upper level minor leaguers_. Having Doyle up in September for some regular ABs might be in his best interests, is all I’m saying. And I love the guy.
I feel the same way about Doyle’s DHing. Both of his major knee injuries have come runnning the bases, and the acceleration out of the box is the biggest single worry. Doing all his rehab, and playing ~4 days a week is plenty enough. Period.
Except that Doyle is playing on that ACL. No difference between Seattle or Tacoma on whether it is bad for him.
#138, Lawton would be bad in LF, and horrible in CF, but yeah. I’d rather he was here then Carl, though, fersure.
Playing Doyle less this year will not reduce his long-term risk, no. It will reduce his risk _this year_ while his muscular neurology learns how to set his weight, and accelerate evenly, and etc. with a piece of someone else’s dead body stapled to his leg bones not exactly where the ligament he grew up with was attached. This is about his safety THIS year. By next summer, his leg is going to be what it will be for years to come, hopefully through an 8-10 year major league career about half or more of which is spent as a DH.
The expectation level and adrenalin level playing in Tacoma is, shall we say, different than in a Big League game with the season on the line. And Doyle sits often there, and there’s no hassle. It wouldn’t and won’t be like that in Seattle, no matter what anybody says. I suspect that this figures into the, at least temporary, delay in promoting him right now. The two contexts just aren’t comparable.
I admitedly know nothing about “muscular neurology” or the like. I just don’t see a difference in the risk level. The likelyhood that he hurts himself playing 3 games and getting a day off seems like it would be exactly the same as if he plays everyday. But then again, like I said, I really know nothing about the science side of it.
By the way, for a point of reference, here are the debuts of 10 modern era players who, in my estimation, had very similar skillsets to what Adam Jones has now.
1. Jose Guillen, age 21, .267/.300/.412
2. Ron Gant, age 22, .265/.271/.386
3. Rondell White, age 21, .260/.321/.411
4. Jeff Francoeur, age 21, .300/.336/.549
5. Carl Everett, ages 22/23, .185/.242/.285
6. Corey Patterson, age 21, .167/.239/.333
7. Joe Carter, age 23, .176/.176/.235
8. Eric Davis, age 22, .224/.320/.466 (115 OPS+ - thats 1984)
9. Ruben Sierra, age 20, .264/.302/.476 (107 OPS+ - 1986)
10. Andruw Jones, age 19, .217/.265/.443
That’s actually a better list of performances than I expected. Francoeur, Sierra, and Davis were all contributing to their clubs the day they set foot in the majors. Everett, Carter, Patterson, and Gant were lousy, while White, Guillen, and Andruw Jones were all not awful but not great. You could probably throw Dale Murphy and Ellis Burks into the discussion too. Murphy was pretty blah, while Burks was solid.
Please keep in mind, however, that these are not the 10 “best comparisons” for Adam Jones career. That list would contain several busted players, I’m sure. This skillset isn’t immune to flaming out and never making it. I picked these guys because they did make it (thus, I remember their names, and they’re easy to look up), and they give us a point of reference for what to expect in the next few months.
That gives a pretty decent picture of what we can expect - some disaster scenarios, some middling performances, and one very good run by Francoeur last year. There’s basically no chance that he hits .300/.400/.600, or anything like he’s been hitting in Tacoma recently, but the low-end performances are a lot better than I thought they would be going in.
The guys Jones gets compared to most often, guys like Torii Hunter and Mike Cameron, spent a lot more time working their way up through the minors. At age 20, they aren’t very good comparisons, honestly.
So, what do I expect from Adam Jones if they let him play regularly the rest of the year? Probably something in the .240/.280/.400 area.
I truly doubt Doyle puts any less strain on anything in Tacoma than he would here… and what I’ve heard from tacoma supports that. I would guess that the stress to make the team and prove you can do it is just as, if not more, pressure than actually being here.
I can’t find a single good reason that Doyle shouldn’t be up here taking Carl’s place, playing 3 out of 4 as DH.
Frankly, I see every ball he dives for, every base he takes, every slide he makes in Tacoma as a waste. The guy has done and is doing the work he needs to do - if it keeps him healthy I will be very happy for him and us…. if not, I’m going to resent every at bat he took there instead of here, the same way I resent all the extra time I wish we had gotten Edgar.
Additionally, there is no reason at all to believe that his health will get any better given more time. Daunte Culpepper is about to come back in less than a year from a series of injuries that make Doyle’s look like a papercut. You never know with bodies.
Dateline Seattle: Mariners trade for Eddie Perez. We asked some fans what they thought:
Fan1: Cool, this must mean they’re going to trade Everett.
Fan2: They need him cause Everett can’t hit lefties. Well, he can’t hit righties either, but he really can’t hit lefties.
Fan3: Great, we trade a good prospect for another guy that’ll just rot on Hargrove’s bench.
Fan4: When are they going to call up Doyle?
Dateline Seattle: Mariners announce Roberto Petagine has been DFA’d. We asked some fans what they thought:
Fan1: Why didn’t they DFA Everett instead?
Fan2: I hope this means Everett is next.
Fan3: Sad, but Hargrove never used him right anyway.
Fan4: When are they going to call up Doyle?
Dateline Seattle: Mariners announce the call-up of Adam Jones to play CF. We asked some fans what they thought:
Fan1: If this means they’re going to DFA Everett, then it’s a great move.
Fan2: I hope this means Everett will be gone next week.
Fan3: Hargrove will probably screw it up and platoon him with Bloomquist.
Fan4: When are they going to call up Doyle?
Dateline Seattle: Mariners announce $1 increase in beer prices. We asked some fans what they thought:
Fan1: That’s fine, as long as they DFA Everett.
Fan2: I’d pay $2 more if Everett was the beer vendor instead of the DH.
Fan3: This sucks – drinking is the only way I can tolerate Hargrove’s managing.
Fan4: When the bloody hell are they going to call up Doyle?
150,
I disagree. Doyle has always been an all or nothing player. He has a reputation for playing balls to the wall even in the minor leagues. I just don’t believe that necessarily would change at the major league level. Most players are going to give their all no matter what level they are at. People say their is no pressure in the minor leagues, but I just don’t buy it. Players want to win no matter what level they are at. They have the pressure of competing with others to earn a shot at the show.
I just think most players (obviously there are exceptions) are giving 100% no matter what level they are at.
RE #154:
Lemme guess, Fan4 is DMZ.
USSM: where every thread eventually becomes a Doyle thread.
Fan’s 1 through 4 are many of us.
USSM: where every thread eventually becomes a Promote Doyle, DFA Everett and Fire Hargrove thread.
Why? Maybe those are the moves that make sense…
Lemme guess, Fan4 is DMZ.
I disagree. Fan4 never mentions drinking. The DMZ I know would never let the other fans hog all of the drinking comments.
make sense…
Does. Not. Compute.
#157: I haven’t heard the word Bloomquist hardly at all, other than for the AP excerpt I posted. Usually we get into “mad Willie hate” vs. “a reasonable dissection of Willie’s assets and liabilities.”
Heh.
My thoughts that Bavasi wouldn’t have brought up Jones unless he absolutely had to–if he forced his way into the big leagues. Otherwise, he’s learning on the job in the majors, which is no way to start the clock on arbitration. Bringing him up when the team was out of contention doesn’t qualify for that because of that arbitration clock.
It will be especially stupid if Grover sits Jones or platoons him.
I like that list of skillset comps for Adam Jones, Dave. Ellis Burks or Rondell White, but with significant defensive upside seems a good set to me for Adam. If Adam solidifies his power stroke like his year so far suggests, than more like Carter maybe, a guy who made a significant contribution by smoking every fastball he saw while not doing a whole lot else. Jones’ start at Tacoma this year looked like Corey Patterson from the right side, but Adam’s adjustments in the last few weeks suggest he’s smarter than that, and point higher up the list.
As far as what we’ll see from Adam in the next few weeks, I’m betting he’s one of those guys who comes up and struggles at first. Jones did that at AA and at AAA so far, so there’s every reason to think he’ll have some tough sleding out of the chute, especially if he’s unable to handle breaking stuff at all as you say. He’s a real good athlete, and should make a major contribution to the club over the next 3-5 years though. Just maybe not quite yet.
John in El Lay: If Doyle was 18 mo.+ out from surgery, I’d agree with you 100%. He’s not, so I don’t. I’ve had my blather on this for now, so I’m out on the issue after this.
Ron Gant’s career is fine with me. For about a six-year stretch, he was a pretty good player.
Dave, any insight into who moves off the 40-man to make room? Is Oliveros a sacrificial anode, Everett a DFA (fan1 & fan2: hurrah!), or is there a trade in the works (JoeL for a bag of non-roster prospects)?
That tidbit about why Ichiro doesn’t want to move to centerfield is interesting.
So Hargrove and Bavasi must know about Ichiro’s conversation with Bob Melvin about not moving to centerfield in 2004.
I wonder if they have had similar conversations with Ichiro since then, and if Ichiro is opening to changing his mind.
Churchill is reporting that Navarro is up to Tacoma to fill Jones’ spot.
Which means Doyle is, I think, going to see his outfield playing time (and most likely CF) increased by a significant margin as they don’t really have anybody else there to play CF. (Nelson and Dobbs look iffy enough on the corners and Bohn isn’t back from DL yet).
So if Doyle’s playing time (on the field, not just the plate and basepaths) gets dramatically increased, that may be as much if not more risky to him than a call-up to the big leagues while his muscles are still healing… It’s interesting to ponder anyway.
#152– and sadly, those potential numbers for Jones would still be an improvement in center….
Probably something in the .240/.280/.400 area.
Reed so far in 2206: .217/.260/.377. If you add 5 singles to Jeremy’s totals, you basically get identical numbers to what Dave’s predicting.
So…basically, we’re looking at 3 more months of Jeremy Reed in CF. You can survive having one dead weight in your offense, but with C-Rex in the lineup, we run the risk of having a really bad offense if anyone goes into a slump (like 2005 or 2004 when we had massive lineup holes everywhere).
162. Jones won’t be platooned, unless it is with Choo, because he is a right handed batter. This puts Bloomquist, by far our best hitter (for average) (damning by faint praise) against left handed pitching, into the role most USSM people want him to be in, that of a pinch runner and occasionally giving someone a day off. Jones can easily prevent being platooned with Choo by hitting better than Choo against right handed pitchers, which shouldn’t be hard to do.
Thanks, Dave, great job letting us in on the Jones promotion. I am excited. Perhaps it’s only my naivete, but count me as quite optimistic and encouraged about this move.
First of all, Jones’s June-July performance level simply cannot be discounted from a statistical analysis perspective. If we assume his 2006 obp of .332 is his “true†performance, then the probability of drawing his June-July split AT RANDOM is a mere 2%. If a scientist were testing the hypothesis “Jones shows significant improvement in June-July†his answer would be “yes.†The scientist concludes this because the sample size is accounted for: if the same obp was drawn from a sample only half as big, the probability would be 7%, and the scientist would answer “maybe not.â€
I think we agree that the numbers he’s putting up at Tacoma confirm a “skillset†that will carry him to the bigs. In addition, I believe that the demonstrated improvement we’ve seen over this season is consistent with his improvement last year and demonstrates a “mindset†that suits him unusually well for the next challenge. I think he can be the exception to Dave’s conservative approach, and I don’t think it should be a foregone conclusion that more time at AAA is crucial to his development.
Of course, there’s the question of how his promotion will affect the Mariners’ chances. Some of your readers may turn up their noses at a banner that requires only 85 wins, but this reader thinks it would hang at the Safe just fine. I think the Jones promotion has a fair probability to help their chances a little, a slight probability to help a lot, and a low probability to hurt significantly. The examples Dave lists in #152 seem to fit this probability profile. Plus, in lieu of any cost (in prospects) to future chances, it actually helps by starting Jones’s adjustment now. Sure, if a bona-fide 5- or 10-VORP CFer comes along at little cost, snag him. But I really think Bavasi knows the probability of that is perhaps lowest of all.
First of all, Jones’s June-July performance level simply cannot be discounted from a statistical analysis perspective.
Like a 25% summer sale or something?
Which means Doyle is, I think, going to see his outfield playing time (and most likely CF) increased by a significant margin as they don’t really have anybody else there to play CF.
Well, they can play Choo in CF, since word is he’s going back down. Dobbs is reportedly being brought up to replace him. Not sure how they get Dobbs on the 40-man, maybe put Morse on the 60-day DL or something.
Dobbs, for real? How hard is this? Platoon Choo or Snelling with Perez at DH, rotating in LF w/Ibanez to give him some days off against LHP too. What do we need Dobbs for? To fill the all important Bloomquist-backup IFer? Isn’t he left-handed also? Insane.
Seems to me like if they could just manage to summon the balls to ditch Everett (god it’s getting tiresome saying that), a Choo platoon with Perez at DH full time would be pretty perfect for what the team actually wants. There’s no pressure to spell Ibanez against LHP, which they really don’t want to do anyway, because Choo shouldn’t face major league lefties. They don’t have to worry about “rookie mistakes” by Choo in the field. They can control how much they want Snelling to play and how much they want him to rest either in Tacoma or from the bench, get him ready to be the full-time LFer in 2007.
It’s too bad that it would be perceived as such a slap in the face to platoon Ibanez with Perez. That would be a deadly DH platoon. If we did that and Snelling was ready to play full time in LF, that’s a team I could be really, really excited about. Of course, without Snelling, it makes more sense to platoon Choo than Ibanez, but we can dream.
Sorry if this already got covered (not enough time to read the whole thread, will do tonight…) but why would Oliveros get optioned back to A ball? Isn’t that a shock to the system - you’re at AA, you get called to the bigs — for one day — then you’re told you’re being demoted to A ball. What gives?
might Quiroz (as the 3rd catcher in Tacoma) be going down to AA, so Oliveros gets bumped one back?
In 171 I meant to say best right-handed hitter. I assume Perez will put the lie to that eventually, but he hasn’t been with us long enough to count.