Seems to me like if they could just manage to summon the balls to ditch Everett (god it’s getting tiresome saying that), a Choo platoon with Perez at DH full time would be pretty perfect for what the team actually wants. There’s no pressure to spell Ibanez against LHP, which they really don’t want to do anyway, because Choo shouldn’t face major league lefties. They don’t have to worry about “rookie mistakes” by Choo in the field. They can control how much they want Snelling to play and how much they want him to rest either in Tacoma or from the bench, get him ready to be the full-time LFer in 2007.

It’s too bad that it would be perceived as such a slap in the face to platoon Ibanez with Perez. That would be a deadly DH platoon. If we did that and Snelling was ready to play full time in LF, that’s a team I could be really, really excited about. Of course, without Snelling, it makes more sense to platoon Choo than Ibanez, but we can dream.

Well, they can play Choo in CF, since word is he’s going back down. Dobbs is reportedly being brought up to replace him. Not sure how they get Dobbs on the 40-man, maybe put Morse on the 60-day DL or something.

Like a 25% summer sale or something?

First of all, Jones’s June-July performance level simply cannot be discounted from a statistical analysis perspective. If we assume his 2006 obp of .332 is his “true” performance, then the probability of drawing his June-July split AT RANDOM is a mere 2%. If a scientist were testing the hypothesis “Jones shows significant improvement in June-July” his answer would be “yes.” The scientist concludes this because the sample size is accounted for: if the same obp was drawn from a sample only half as big, the probability would be 7%, and the scientist would answer “maybe not.”

I think we agree that the numbers he’s putting up at Tacoma confirm a “skillset” that will carry him to the bigs. In addition, I believe that the demonstrated improvement we’ve seen over this season is consistent with his improvement last year and demonstrates a “mindset” that suits him unusually well for the next challenge. I think he can be the exception to Dave’s conservative approach, and I don’t think it should be a foregone conclusion that more time at AAA is crucial to his development.

Of course, there’s the question of how his promotion will affect the Mariners’ chances. Some of your readers may turn up their noses at a banner that requires only 85 wins, but this reader thinks it would hang at the Safe just fine. I think the Jones promotion has a fair probability to help their chances a little, a slight probability to help a lot, and a low probability to hurt significantly. The examples Dave lists in #152 seem to fit this probability profile. Plus, in lieu of any cost (in prospects) to future chances, it actually helps by starting Jones’s adjustment now. Sure, if a bona-fide 5- or 10-VORP CFer comes along at little cost, snag him. But I really think Bavasi knows the probability of that is perhaps lowest of all.

Reed so far in 2206: .217/.260/.377. If you add 5 singles to Jeremy’s totals, you basically get identical numbers to what Dave’s predicting.

So…basically, we’re looking at 3 more months of Jeremy Reed in CF. You can survive having one dead weight in your offense, but with C-Rex in the lineup, we run the risk of having a really bad offense if anyone goes into a slump (like 2005 or 2004 when we had massive lineup holes everywhere).