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AL West Trade Value
Since everyone enjoyed the concept last offseason, and last week’s Mariner spinoff, I’ve decided to do another in the series of Trade Value posts. This time, it’s the AL West Trade Value. For the whole rules, see version 1.0 from last winter.
Essentially, the goal is to look at which teams are setup best for the future in our division - stopping at 50 players is pretty arbitrary, and so don’t take this as a gospel, but it does paint a pretty good picture of who has valuable talent hanging around and who does not. Ignoring the whole payroll/front office ability issue, and just based on current talent in the organization, things look good in Seattle and Anaheim, and not quite as hot in Oakland or Texas. But I’d argue that Oakland and Texas have the better management teams in place, so let’s not feel to sorry for them.
Also, I took a slightly different approach to assessing value on this list than I did with last week’s Mariner-only list, so the order won’t match exactly. This list leans a bit more towards players who provide a true competitive advantage in the division, whereas the Mariner-centric list was geared more towards filling out our roster going forward.
Anyways, on to the list, and apologies if the formatting doesn’t work perfectly, but I’ve never mastered the pre tags.
1 Felix Hernandez SEA
2 John Lackey LAA
3 Mark Teixeira TEX
4 Dan Haren OAK
5 Howie Kendrick LAA
6 Vladimir Guerrero LAA
7 Ichiro Suzuki SEA
8 Ervin Santana LAA
9 Jose Lopez SEA
10 Rich Harden OAK
11 Brandon Wood LAA
12 Jered Weaver LAA
13 Nick Swisher OAK
14 Rafael Soriano SEA
15 Barry Zito OAK
16 Ian Kinsler TEX
17 Michael Young TEX
18 Huston Street OAK
19 F. Rodriguez LAA
20 Adam Jones SEA
21 Bobby Crosby OAK
22 Hank Blalock TEX
23 Y. Betancourt SEA
24 Erick Aybar LAA
25 Mike Napoli LAA
26 J.J. Putz SEA
27 Eric Hurley TEX
28 Juan Rivera LAA
29 Eric Chavez OAK
30 Jeff Clement SEA
31 John Danks TEX
32 Nick Adenhart LAA
33 Travis Buck OAK
34 Vicente Padilla TEX
35 Gil Meche SEA
36 Thomas Diamond TEX
37 Edison Volquez TEX
38 Kenji Johjima SEA
39 Casey Kotchman LAA
40 Dan Johnson OAK
41 J. Duchscherer OAK
42 Daric Barton OAK
43 Joe Blanton OAK
44 Raul Ibanez SEA
45 Kevin Millwood TEX
46 Ryan Feierabend SEA
47 Mark Lowe SEA
48 Orlando Cabrera LAA
49 Mark DeRosa TEX
50 Jeff Mathis LAA
Some notes from the list:
The Angels have all kinds of talent. While they have 14 guys on the list, 10 of those are in the top 28, and 6 of those are in the top 13. They have 4 of the top 8 guys on the list. And I’d imagine most Angel fans think I’m underselling Brandon Wood. The Angels probably have the best core to build a roster around in the major leagues.
The A’s are in trouble. They have 12 guys on the list, but 4 of those are in the 40-50 range, and 2 of their top 4 (Harden and Zito) are huge question marks for the future. It’s not easy to look at the A’s current talent base and see how they’re going to contend going forward, but Billy Beane cures a lot of ills. If the A’s keep winning for the rest of the decade, it will be his greatest triumph yet.
The Rangers might be in worse shape than the A’s. Only three guys in the top 20, and nearly half the guys on their list are young pitchers with no major league track record. Attrition could thin their talent base out pretty quickly. The Rangers are basically counting on their four young arms to develop - if even two of them fail to make any impact in the majors, it spells trouble for Texas.
The M’s are sitting in a pretty nice spot. They’ve got significant young, cheap talent on the roster, plus some guys performing well in the majors at salaries far below market value. Once the next wave of guys from Tacoma reach the majors, there won’t be much additional help from the farm system coming for a couple of years, but the team has a strong enough talent base to build around. Their problem continues to be choosing the correct role players to fill out the roster, and the M’s clearly have the worst management team in the division.
Also, the bottom of the list could be populated by any number of guys. There are a whole host of guys that you could make a case for over Mathis and I’d basically shurg my shoulders and say “yea”. Laird, Mench, Wilkerson, Snelling, Matthews, Choo, Figgins, and Morales could all have a case to one degree or another. So try not to get too caught up in over who got snubbed - once you get down that far on the list, there’s a lot of guys of comparable value. It’s the guys at the top who are going to decide who is in charge of this division for the next few years.
Right now, the edge goes to Anaheim. Or Los Angeles. Whatever.
Comments
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I know that Morrow isn’t tradeable at the moment, but you did have him on your last list. Considering the purpose of this list, wouldn’t including him be relevant? After all, he could be traded during the offseason.
If I include Morrow, then I have to fight off questions about Kasey Kiker and Hank Conger and the relative merits of other guys who are several years from the majors. And I’d rather not have that discussion, because thats not the point of this list.
Morrow’s obviously a valuable piece of the M’s future. Rangers fans would argue that Gerald Laird, Brad Wilkerson, and Kasey Kiker are a part of their future as well. I had to draw the line somewhere. Needless to say, there’s a lot of players who have arguments who aren’t on this list.
I was surprised to see two pitchers ahead of Teixeira. I thought everyday players always trumped hurlers. What is the (relative) knock on Teixeira?
So the minor leaguers on this list are guys considered imminent for the majors?
For the most part, yea, they are minor leaguers who are banging on the door to the majors. I think I could make a case that Erick Aybar and Howie Kendrick should be the Angels double-play tandem immediately.
Their problem continues to be choosing the correct role players to fill out the roster, and the M’s clearly have the worst management team in the division.
Is that Hargrove, Bavasi, senior management (Armstrong/Lincoln), or a combination of the above?
That’s what I worry about- the 90’s Mariners produced an ungodly amount of talent from their minor leagues AND lucked into some absolute steals of trades, and managed to convert a talent base on par with the 60’s Yankees or some other very impressive teams into two division titles- underperforming teams like Cleveland and the Yankees in part because of questionable decisions.
I guess I can answer my own question by assuming that Teixeira is not as valuable as, say, Miguel Cabrera or David Wright.
Just curious because I went to high school with him, but what do you think about Travis Buck?
Is that Hargrove, Bavasi, senior management (Armstrong/Lincoln), or a combination of the above?
All of the above. By management team, I basically meant anyone with any kind of input into how the team fares who doesn’t actually play the game.
I guess I can answer my own question by assuming that Teixeira is not as valuable as, say, Miguel Cabrera or David Wright.
Teixeira’s a good player, but it doesn’t look like he’s ever going to be a great player, and Wright/Cabrera are great players who have a chance to be all time greats. His contact rates keep his averages down, and he’s not a Jim Thome type walk machine who can post .450 OBP’s even while striking out all the time.
I like Teixeira a lot, but he’s just a very good first baseman. He’s not a great player. Felix has as much talent as anyone alive, and John Lackey is the best pitcher no one ever talks about.
I would trade J-Lo for Harden in a new york minute.
Just curious because I went to high school with him, but what do you think about Travis Buck?
Classic A’s player. Doubles power, good plate discipline, better fielder than you would think by watching him. No one thinks he’s going to be more than a .450-.500 SLG guy, though, since he’s more of a gap power hitter than a home run guy. A corner outfielder who maxes out at .500 SLG can only have so much value.
But I like Buck, and I’d gladly have him in our system.
Jose Lopez at 7 does seem a little high. To rank him ahead of Harden, Wood and Swisher is testament to how truly valuable he may be, now and in the future.
Oops… I meant that Jose Lopez ranked 9th seems a little high…
Don’t you think Jered Weaver is a bit low? A 1.12 ERA in 40IP so far this year? And his stuff is so good, he made even Ichiro look foolish.
The one I find most puzzling is Blalock seven spots ahead of Chavez. I can see having them close, but my impression is that most baseball people definitely would pick Chavez given the option.
Buck was just a monster in high school, both in baseball and basketball. One of those kids who dominated every sport he played all his life.
Out of which left field did Napoli come out of? For a couple of years Mathis has been touted as their #1 catching prospect while Napoli was rated as a C or C+ prospect. Then out of nowhere Napoli turns into a grade A MLB catcher. Baseball is a funny game, sometimes.
Jose Lopez at 9 does seem a little high. To rank him ahead of Harden, Wood and Swisher is testament to how truly valuable he may be, now and in the future.
Harden has serious, serious injury concerns. Obviously, if we knew he was going to be healthy, he’d rank much higher, probably #2. But we don’t know if he’s ever going to be healthy.
I have lots of reservations about Brandon Wood’s approach and ability to consistently hit high level pitching. The power is legit, but his contact rates are awful. He’s got a lot of work to do.
Swisher had a great start, has fallen apart since. He’s a nice corner outfielder, but no way he’s more valuable than Lopez.
Don’t you think Jered Weaver is a bit low? A 1.12 ERA in 40IP so far this year? And his stuff is so good, he made even Ichiro look foolish.
The key’s to Jered Weaver’s success are command and deception. His stuff isn’t “so good”. It’s above average, but his fastball isn’t any better than half of the major leaguers out there. His slider is solid, but he doesn’t have a real third pitch. He’s a command guy, and he wouldn’t be the first command guy to explode on the scene before taking a big step back.
The one I find most puzzling is Blalock seven spots ahead of Chavez. I can see having them close, but my impression is that most baseball people definitely would pick Chavez given the option.
Contract. Chavez is getting paid like an all-star, while Blalock’s deal is actually more in line with who he really is.
I guess so, now that I check the numbers. I’d forgotten how early Blalock got his extension and how cheap it now looks in light of his continued production. Somehow I thought he was getting a little bit more than that.
Of the 50 listed above the one that sticks out the most to me is #47 - Mark Lowe. I imagine coming into this season Lowe would of had a hard time cracking the top 500, now he’s 47 and climbing FAST. Obviously a strike out of A-Rod, in Yankee Stadium, with the bases loaded will get you noticed.
Dave can tell me any reason why Lowe shouldn’t continue to climb this list. Its all a matter of small sample size at this point, but he has demonstrated great stuff so far!
Of the 50 listed above the one that sticks out the most to me is #47 - Mark Lowe. I imagine coming into this season Lowe would of had a hard time cracking the top 500, now he’s 47 and climbing FAST. Obviously a strike out of A-Rod, in Yankee Stadium, with the bases loaded will get you noticed.
There’s no doubt, Lowe has taken an astronomical leap this season. If you read the article I wrote for the Hardball Times Annual during the offseason, this is exactly the kind of situation I was describing.
Dave can tell me any reason why Lowe shouldn’t continue to climb this list. Its all a matter of small sample size at this point, but he has demonstrated great stuff so far!
Well, if he stays in the pen, his value is limited. You’ll notice that even though the division boasts several elite closers, they aren’t ranked especially high on this list - relievers just aren’t that valuable.
If Lowe could move back to the rotation and become an adequate mid-rotation starter, though, he’d be in the discussion with guys Diamond and Volquez.
Right now, the edge goes to Anaheim. Or Los Angeles.
which is why the thought that Bowden was trolling the Ms as bait for the Angels…
Dave,
I suppose you knew this was coming from someone, but you said:
I guess I can answer my own question by assuming that Teixeira is not as valuable as, say, Miguel Cabrera or David Wright.
Teixeira’s a good player, but it doesn’t look like he’s ever going to be a great player . . .” and “I like Teixeira a lot, but he’s just a very good first baseman. He’s not a great player.”
Why Ichiro #7 and Teix. at #3? Given your groundrules, I suppose it makes sense (prob. age, contract and some combo of the other factors you listed). I don’t think that 1-6 are all players that the M’s would take for straight-up for Ichiro, though, but, as you state, this is not a perfect science.
Why Ichiro #7 and Teix. at #3? Given your groundrules, I suppose it makes sense (prob. age, contract and some combo of the other factors you listed). I don’t think that 1-6 are all players that the M’s would take for straight-up for Ichiro, though, but, as you state, this is not a perfect science.
Age is the big one here. He’s 32, he’ll be a free agent after next year, and he’s already getting paid very handsomely. He’s a valuable asset to the team winning, but he’s not an astronomical bargain. Teixeira is already a comparable player in ability, but is significantly younger and makes about half as much as Ichiro does.
And yes, I would trade Ichiro straight up for each of the one through six guys on this list.
I propose an Ichiro-King Felix trade, then.
So Dave, as a followup- suppose the M’s fired Hargrove and replaced him with Dan Rohn, who turns out to be an adequate if not brilliant manager. Does that change the M’s management enough from being the worst in the division to put them over anyone, or do additional sackings need to occur?
So Dave, as a followup- suppose the M’s fired Hargrove and replaced him with Dan Rohn, who turns out to be an adequate if not brilliant manager. Does that change the M’s management enough from being the worst in the division to put them over anyone, or do additional sackings need to occur?
I think we’d still be last.
Oakland has Beane and his guys - enough said.
Texas has Jon Daniels, who is terrific, and a quality support staff around him. I also am a Buck Showalter fan. And I’m thrilled that Orel Hershiser left. There’s really not much in their management team to not like.
The Angels get a lot of crap, but I think Stoneman has done a great job not giving in to public pressure and moving his valuable young players for a big name. He’s done a nice job keeping the team together, and they continue to draft well and develop talent. And while I don’t agree with Mike Scioscia’s strategies in many cases, he’s not a bad manager.
So, no, firing Hargrove wouldn’t move us past anyone. But it would sure help.
well, help the collective blood pressure, if nothing else…
I have to question the merits of praising Jon Daniels. His results (that come to mind that is) do not seem to support his rep.
That Young-Eaton trade was horrendous.
I honestly don’t see much variance btw Daniels, Bavasi, and Stoneman.
I have to question the merits of praising Jon Daniels. His results (that come to mind that is) do not seem to support his rep.
He’s had the job for less than a year.
That Young-Eaton trade was horrendous.
He correctly identified that Young, one of the most extreme flyball pitchers in the majors, would not succeed long term in that ballpark, and he moved him while his value was high. Adam Eaton got hurt. It happens.
I honestly don’t see much variance btw Daniels, Bavasi, and Stoneman.
If you talked with Jon Daniels, you’d change your mind.
Adam Eaton was the best he could for Chris Young though? It’s not like Adam Eaton is much of a GB pitcher either.
Chris Young wasn’t exactly a highly coveted pitcher. Scouting reports on him are almost universally mediocre, and his extreme FB% (seriously, he’s a starting pitching version of Julio Mateo when it comes to putting the ball in the air) limits the amount of clubs who would be interested.
Besides, it’s not like Young is a fantastic pitcher. He’s certainly putting up results right now, but his peripherals don’t support his low ERA. His FIP is 4.63 and his xFIP is 4.85. His ERA is low almost exclusively thanks to his LOB% of 80.8%, which is number one in the National League. That’s definitely not a reflection of his true talent level (it was 69.4% last year), and almost certainly assures that his ERA will increase over time.
If a team did trade for Teixeira, I wonder if Texas wouldn’t get the better value, if both teams traded evenly on perceived value? Teixeira’s home/road split is really wide; on the road he’s just a .253/.334./.454 hitter over the previous three years (though this year he’s hitting much better on the road and sucking at home, so go figure).
So, no, firing Hargrove wouldn’t move us past anyone. But it would sure help.
Yeah, we kind of see eye to eye on that one, but I wanted to be sure.
I also am sort of amused that people cite the 2002 Angels as proof of Bavasi being a good GM- but somehow the guy who was the ACTUAL GM that year (Stoneman) gets no credit, who’s also gone on to a couple of division titles AFTER that. Apparently he’s just window dressing or something.
Bavasi has never been a GM of a team that’s won 90 (Stoneman has 3 to his credit, in considerably less time at a helm), and that’s probably going to be true in 2006 as well (the 1995 Angels team was closest, but they only average out to 88 if you stretch them to a 162 game season), barring the Mariners winning 2 out of 3 the rest of the way. I think you’d have a hard time showing me a GM who, after nine years on two different teams with zero division titles or 90 win teams, and 4 90 LOSS teams (5 if the 2006 M’s tank), went on to a great career.
And before anyone says “Bavasi got a raw deal in Seattle”- he also got over $250 million to play with in Seattle, so, yeah, the farm system had issues, but this isn’t KC we’re discussing here, either.
Anyway… I also agree that the A’s are in trouble in the medium term. Loaiza and Kendall could easily be big, fat mistakes next year, costing them $15 million in payroll (apparently the A’s get money back in 2007 to help defray Kendall. You can hide mistakes like that a lot easier on the Mariners payroll than on the A’s payroll.
From FoxSports.com:
According to FOXSports.com’s Ken Rosenthal, the Padres have made Adrian Beltre their No. 1 target as they seek to upgrade at third base.
The Mariners are planning to be buyers, not sellers, but if that changes, they’d be willing to talk about Beltre, who is owed about $4 million for the rest of 2006 and $36.5 million over the following three seasons. The Mariners would almost certainly have to pay a portion of his salary in order to deal him, and even then, they probably wouldn’t get much in return. If Beltre is going to be moved, it’s quite a bit more likely to happen in the offseason.
Wonder where Beltre falls in terms of trade value…
I think Dave said Beltre has negative trade value a while back, so I guess the pile of cash is to help offset that.
It would also kind of leave us with a giant sucking sound at 3rd that I fear we’d be tempted to fill with Willie “I just want some playing time” Bloomquist.
My apologies if this sounds like I’m picking nits, but Daric Barton at #42? I mean, I get that his stock has fallen from two years ago as scouts and statheads alike wonder if he’ll ever hit with the power expected from a corner infielder. And, I guess I could live with that ranking if he wasn’t two spots behind Dan Johnson (six years older, a year and a half head start on his arbitration clock ticking).
OK, I am nitpicking…awesome job, Dave.
The Pads have a kid at AAA who could probably fill in for the M’s at 3B — I think his name is Leone or something.
I think you have both Seattle middle infielders rated too high. Although Yuni’s got A LOT of value based on his defense, his offensive ability is VERY limited. His only offensive value right now is tied up in his average, and (admittedly without looking at BABIP #’s) a .290 average does not seem sustainable.
Similarly, Lopez, despite knocking in a fair number of runs this year, is struggling to get on base at an even remotely respectable clip (in the bottom thrid of the league, even with a fairly shallow talent pool). There are a number of players below him on your list that opposing GMs would never consider trading for him (e.g., Weaver, Chavez, Crosby, K-Rod, Street, Young, Swisher, Kinsler).
Okay… speculation running rampant here… but wouldn’t you try to fit Adam Jones over at 3B if Beltre is unloaded? Clearly he has plenty of work to do to be a CF, but the move from SS to 3B is much less severe, especially with Jones’ rocket arm.
With all this talk of a Beltre trade I am really missing Asdrubal.
I really like Rusty’s suggestion. Although what do we do for a CF?
I think Dave said Beltre has negative trade value a while back, so I guess the pile of cash is to help offset that.
I heard a pretty nutso rumor over the all-star break that had Beltre going to SD and the M’s not sending any cash to cover the rest of the deal, but the players coming back were underwhelming, to say the least.
Anyways, from the sounds of it, I think the Mariners passed. If there was anything to that rumor last week, I don’t think the M’s are interested in creating a giant hole at third base and paying Beltre to play for someone else.
My apologies if this sounds like I’m picking nits, but Daric Barton at #42?
The questions about his power are legit. At this point, the best you can project him to be is a bad defensive Mark Grace. Which I think is Rico Brogna or something.
His only offensive value right now is tied up in his average, and (admittedly without looking at BABIP #’s) a .290 average does not seem sustainable.
BABIP for hitters is actually a skill, and I have no idea why you’d think batting average isn’t sustainable. It might be as consistent as power or walk rate, but it’s clearly a skill, and not anything like luck.
Similarly, Lopez, despite knocking in a fair number of runs this year, is struggling to get on base at an even remotely respectable clip
Second baseman, with power and solid defense, just made the all-star team, 22 years old, makes nothing. Find me a few more of those.
There are a number of players below him on your list that opposing GMs would never consider trading for him (e.g., Weaver, Chavez, Crosby, K-Rod, Street, Young, Swisher, Kinsler).
Beane would trade Chavez and his $10 million per year deal for Lopez so fast your head would spin. And man, if you think the Rangers wouldn’t trade Kinsler for Lopez, you’re kidding yourself. Check out his home/road splits, then remember that he’s 2 years older and worse defensively. And you apparently overvalue relievers.
Dave–Thankyou for filling the off days with your posts. They are informative,
enlightening and appreciated.
This thread is slightly depressing. Not for the list where it seems like the Mariners are doing okay, but because with the knowledge that with the current people in place at the top (manager, GM, senior management, whatever) that this organization is going to be behind the other teams in the division.
I haven’t followed the Rangers closely enough to know how Showalter manages the team, but what do you like about him Dave?
Lopez, as a hitter, is ahead of Aramis Ramirez and Miguel Tejada at the same age. Now, that doesn’t mean he turns into those guys, but come on, an All Star at 22 isn’t a valuable property? A rather large percentage of guys who do that go to the Hall of Fame.
As for Crosby- his career OBP is .319. He’s a good player, but Lopez at age 22 is outperforming Crosby at age 24. Odds are high that continues.
I know we’re all statheads who love our OBP, but not everyone’s going to be Ted Williams.
Dave, have we seen enough of Mark Lowe to justify screaming for Soriano to move into the rotation? Seems like using Soriano as a stopper is a bit of a waste when he’s good enough to take Pineiro’s spot, and if Lowe continues to put up Soriano-like numbers out of the pen, the Soriano-to-rotation argument becomes that much stronger.
Or, is Lowe the guy you see as a starter?
I’m no Dave, but I think I would rather see Lowe turned into a starter than Soriano. Soriano already has had injury problems and being in the bullpen gives him some added life.
Lowe is younger and has 3 pitches already. Seems like if anyone is going to be converted to a starter, he would be a better candidate.
Or, is Lowe the guy you see as a starter?
Call me crazy, but why not both?
For certain, I’m giving Lowe a shot to make the rotation in ST next year. But this organization does not lack for arms who can get outs for one inning at a time, and we’re pretty low on starters, especially in the short term. I’d love to see the team try to maximize the usefulness of Soriano and Lowe by giving them shots as starting pitchers next year. If it doesn’t work, you can always move them back to the pen, but you’ll never know if they can be 200 inning guys until you try.
Call me crazy, but why not both?
ok crazy, by the way, have they ever tried moving Pineiro back to the pen?
Not that I’m insinuating anything, but unless the bullpen has some kind of chemical substance laying around, I’m not sure it would help Joel.
Not that I’m insinuating anything, but unless the bullpen has some kind of chemical substance laying around, I’m not sure it would help Joel.
maybe, but why wouldn’t it hurt at this point to try? he has shown flashes of adequacy in the past, maybe the extra 1-2 mph (I don’t remember what the exact number you get back in the bullpen is) would allow him to be effective for 1-2 inning stretches (ala gagne)?
I understand that you are not dipping down too far into young guys just into the system (for example, Morrow and Conger), but I was wondering if you’ve seen what Tony Butler has done so far in AZL action. Massive K rate (and a high BB rate). Are you starting to get a little higher on him?
AZL stats are totally and completely useless.
Dave,
Great article - made even better by your willingness to stick around and answer follow-up questions. Thanks for the discussion and thanks for humoring all of our random thoughts.
Now, if you could just do something about Hargrove . . . . .
25 Ks in 14 IPs is pretty sweet, even in the AZL.
But, moving on, I was little surprised that Kinsler is so high on the list. Would you trade Jones for Kinsler? Clement?
25 Ks in 14 IPs is pretty sweet, even in the AZL.
It’s a complex league with no fans, a non-public schedule, loose rules, playing against guys who should be wondering who to ask to junior prom. I’m not trying to be a curmudgeon, but there’s really no reason to take anything that happens down there seriously. Scouting reports from the AZL can be useful - statistics cannot.
But, moving on, I was little surprised that Kinsler is so high on the list. Would you trade Jones for Kinsler? Clement?
No, because we have Jose Lopez. But Kinsler has a good bit of value around the league.
I do see your point re the AZL. I think it will be interesting when Butler is promoted to short season to see how he adjusts. Looks like he has a live arm, but not much command. Of course, I guess you could say that about a lot of young guys who never amount to squat.
Any thought about putting Greg Halman on the list, or does he fall into the “too new” category? If that wasn’t an issue, do you think his talent level would put him on the list?
Halman’s in the group of guys who are interesting but far away. All four organizations have guys like him.
His power is legit, but we really won’t know what kind of player he’s going to be until we see how hard he works to improve. His approach at the plate is so terrible now that he’s going to have to put it in overdrive to get better. Some do, some don’t. We don’t know how hard he’s willing to work, so until we do, he’s a project. A project with a lot of upside, but a project nonetheless.
On Butler, I agree AZL stats are pretty useless. Do you have any scouting info on him, positive or negative?
Regarding Lowe, he’s been very impressive in his brief callup, but you’ve moved him ahead of four people in 9 days (Snelling, Choo, Tuiasosopo, Cruceta). Has the small sample really raised his trade value that much, or was this just a case where those guys were all pretty bunched up on the previous list and Lowe’s run gave him the slight nudge he needed to move past them?
#61: Has the small sample really raised his trade value that much, or was this just a case where those guys were all pretty bunched up on the previous list and Lowe’s run gave him the slight nudge he needed to move past them?
Remember that rankings such as this are almost always pyramidal, with very flat sides. Near the top, every guy is uniuqe and distinguishable. At the bottom there are almost no discernible differences in trade value.
I doubt that there’s much difference at all in trade value between any guy ranked below about 35, as well as with any of the next 20 or 30 guys who didn’t quite make it on to the list.
If you were looking at a list such as this for contructing a paper roster, you would secure as many of the premium guys that you can (the top 10), then secure a bunch of very good guys (maybe slots 11 to 25) and after that start filling the gaps around the guys you now have on your roster. Remember that even if you get to the end of the lit of 50 and you’ve still got holes, there are a bunch of guys who didn’t make the list who are really jsut as valuable as the guys at the bottom.
I’m curious why Rafael Soriano is so high. The only way to justify that ranking would be if he’s a starter, right? So, are you really that confident he’s ever going to be a successfuly starter, given his injury history, smallish frame, lack of a third pitch, etc.?
If Felix adds 2-3 mph back to his fastball, I wouldn’t trade him for anyone in the world not named Pujols. Wright and Cabrera could be greats, but the pitcher we saw last year - at 20 - could become baseball’s version of Gretzky…the unquestioned Greatest.
Pujols is a stud, no question. But on the issue of Pujols vs. Wright/Cabrera, I think a few things make it much closer. For starters, Pujols makes $14M whereas the other two haven’t even hit arbitration yet. You can buy quite a bit for the difference between what they make and $14M. They’re also each three years younger (not that Pujols is old, or anything). But the big thing to me is defense — I’ll take a 3B over a 1B almost every time.
I’m with JMB on this one.
I’d go Cabrera, Wright, Pujols, Felix.
Although I’d spend a long time debating Johan Santana versus Felix. In the end, I’ll take Felix’s lower rates.
David Wright is a great player, no doubt, hitting .317/.389/.575 as a 23-year-old this year. But the difference between Pujols and Wright at the plate is still pretty vast.
Pujols at 23: .359/.439/.667
Pujols career: .332/.419/.629
His career EqA is .342. Wright’s EqA this year is .316. The difference between Pujols bat and Wright’s bat is something in the range of 20-25 runs a year.
David Wright is great. Albert Pujols is Greatest.
Yep, Pujols is in a league of his own at the plate.
Felix could get there at the mound. I wish I could blame his loss in velocity on mechanics, but I’ve reviewed some film and nothing looks much different than last year. His release point might vary a bit more than it did before (but let’s not kid ourselves, it has always varied from heater to heater, change to change, even last September) and he doesn’t look to be in the best shape, but I’m not satisfied that either factor has consistently cost him power. It would be nice if his body’s motion would catch up with his throwing motion…his legs are always playing catch-up with his arm.
If his mechanics improve - and there’s no reason they shouldn’t - I’m not sure I’d trade him for Pujols. And I have a man crush on Pujols.
Pujols is obviously in a class by himself.
Is 20-25 runs a year worth $10-12 million in salary difference?
To add to number 69, IIRC, 20-25 runs is going to amount to amount 2 to 3 wins per year.
I understand wins above average are costly. I’m just not sure they are worth that much. I would love to hear others’ thoughts on this.
re 70 “going to amount to amount”
Sorry for that. I have no idea what happened.
Call it bias (it probably is), but I don’t think Pujols is overpaid, and the chance to watch the greatest hitter today (ever?) over the prime of his career is too good to pass up. I want to see the best swing ever swing every day. Even if the first few years wouldn’t be at the discount Wright and Cabrera play for, I’ll take the best. It won’t be too long before the youngsters will be making their share, either.
Babe Ruth only comes around every so often. Twice so far.
I’m certainly not suggesting that Pujols is overpaid. I think he’s clearly worth more than he’s getting.
But that’s not really the point of this argument. The point is, would Wright + that much cash to improve your team be more valuable than Pujols alone?
I suppose it comes down to which GM is determining how to spend that cash.
re: Yuni, way above
His low K rates due lend weight to his ability to hit for a high average. Putting the ball in play a lot is a good way to hit close to .300.
re: Lowe and Soriano
Nice to hear some other people share the same idea. I doubt it would work out, but seriously, how cool would a rotation of Felix, Daisuke, Washburn, Lowe, Soriano be? And you’d have Cruceta, Feireband, Blackeley, Livington, Morrow pushing up from the system. Granted, it leaves the pen a bit sparse, but that’s WAY easier (and cheaper) to shore up than 3/5 of your rotation.
re: “would Wright + that much cash to improve your team be more valuable than Pujols alone?”
In the short run? Almost surely. All you’d have to be able to do is buy a 1B who’s x number of runs (20-25 I think was quoted) above replacement level for $Pujols - $Wright and you’d come out ahead.
That being said, Wright will eventually be making as much as Pujols and then you’re stuck with the inferior offensive player, but then it gets interesting because then you’d be comparing replacement level 1B vs. 3B to determine if the difference in favor of the 1B outweighs Pujols’ outproduction of Wright.
You also have to take into consideration Wright’s abilities as a third baseman. He’s an above average defender over there. Pujols may be an above average defensive first baseman, I’m not sure, but even if he is, I imagine Wright’s contribution with the glove has more of an impact.
You’d have to be nuts to trade Pujols for Wright. Not only did Pujols put up Jimmie Foxx numbers in his age 23 season, he’s getting better, he’s taking more walks, his OBP is up, and his SLG% is up into the .700s. Players who can domainate a game like he can on offense are irreplaceable.
The only person I’d trade Pujols for is a Alex Rodriguez– if Rodriguez was 26-27 instead of 30-31.
Interesting list, Dave; interesting thoughts.
I’m a big fan of Stoneman. He’s done a great job of development, and has an awesome group coming up from the minors, definitely the best core in the game. They’ll be very hard to compete with. The big question for them is depth in the starting rotation, and that’s where the Ms will have some hope in taking some series from the Lost Angels. And Stoneman has an owner with the right idea: ownership gave Stoneman money to buy vets to keep the team competitive for several years and _not_ trade away the minor league blue chips while guys sorted themselves out. And given the money, Stoneman signed one of the best players in the gamer in Big Vlad. Stoneman also signed Colon and Escobar, and while I’m not a huge fan of either they kept the team in it during these years and put a buzz on for the fans. Bill S. can be forgiven for pick-ups like Steve Finley and Orlando Cabrera in the circumstances.
Just as a point of comparison, given money to spend Bill Bavasi has picked up: Beltre, Sexson, Everett, Washburn, and you could add Guardado and Ibanez to that as ‘team acquisitions.’ Raul is the only player even to make it onto this list, and he’s valued right where he should be, his career year notwithstanding. In fact, it’s these ’stay competitive veteran signings’ by the Ms which are _weighing the team and organization down NOW_. There’s no way, NO WAY that Stoneman trades Asrdubal Cabrera for Eddie Perez, either. I have no problem at all in saying that the Ms have the worst management team in the division. They’re not KC/TB bad, but they’re . . . not competitive, as we see.
As always, Oakland looks worse in the stats than on the field somehow. I have to like what Beane has done with the pitching staff there, although the injury issues with Harden really hurt ‘The Plan.’ Oddly, if Oakland can come up with even one significant bat, I think they’ll stay quite competitive. But it’ll take some Magic Beane(s) to get that one big bat, so we’ll have to see.
Is 20-25 runs a year worth $10-12 million in salary difference?
Is this some kind of trick question? That’s what, four or five games? Do you think the AL West is going to be won by more than that? How often is a division or wild card decided by less than that?
Something else to consider is the relative financial resources of the various teams, because if you don’t have a lot of cash for FAs you have to hope your farm produces. From that perspective, the Angels are even better off, and the A’s are even worse. Though of course Beane manages to pull rabbits out of hats on a regular basis. I sometimes wonder if he wishes the A’s were doing as poorly as they should be this year, so he could move Zito at the deadline for some cheap and talented kids. Even if Harden seems healthy (and that’s an “if” for sure) the cupboard is going to look pretty bare this offseason.
Re: Pujols and Wright.
Its worth keeping in mind that Pujols is a well above average first baseman and baserunner. Moreover, he only moved to first base (via the outfield) to accommodate the acquisition of Scott Rolen. He was at least average at third and was above average in the corners. While Wright projects to be above average at third, all of the measures I’ve seen to date indicate that he is currently somewhat below average, though he appears to be quite good on the bases. In the end, I tend to agree that 3-5 marginal wins is well worth $12-$13 million per year on division contender. Pujols is kind of the exception who proves the rule in that respect insofar as I would rather have cheap and good, than old and very good in most circumstances. In the case of Pujols, I’ll take great, young, and signed long term under market for his unique skills. If he wasn’t valuable enought at 1st, I’d move him back to 3rd.
I do agree that the Ms have put together the parts of a fine team core, though. Felix, Ichiro, Soriano, Lowe, Morrow?, Lopez, Jones, Clement, Doyle?, Betancourt, Putz, Sherrill; Johjima and maybe Sexson as helpmeets. That’s a well-balanced bunch, OF, INF, starters, and relievers, and some superior defenders among the group. If management sensibly fills out the roster around that group, the Ms could do a lot of damange—but not THIS management team. They have a history of disappointing. The most important acquisiton for the organization is a GM who can and will build out the 25-man to a team that actually wins rather than just shows up, and Bill Bavasi has a demonstrated history of NOT being that guy.
Ichiro: yeah, straight up for any of the guys above him, and I love Ichii, but he’s still very, very valuable.
Lopez: If anything, he’s slotted _low_ on the list; that’s what a major hole in your game like his miniscule OBP will do for you. He’s 22 and rakes line drives all over the yard; more and more of those will turn into HRs as he matures. He’s having no trouble making contact, which was a real worry when he was pull-happy, and will beat you with the RBI single just as much as the towering XB hit. I’m hoping that his OBP will creep up a little bit. And Safeco hurts him quite a bit like other RH hitters. Bats like his are rare indeed at 2B, and he’s holding his own there, although I think he’ll end up at 3B in a few years, but the defense even boosts his value now, yeah. I’m with Dave: the other GMs would swap Chavez or Kinsler for him in a second.
Lowe and Soriano: The thing about Lowe isn’t the 5 innings, it’s his control so far this year. Even in the low minors, hiw K/BB was stupid good. It won’t stay at this level, but it’s an extremely important sign, and speaks a great deal to why he’s having such success: he’s pounding the zone with good pitches. Yes, I want to see him tried as a starter. Oh, and Soriano _has_ three pitches: fastball, slider, and split, and it’s a great combination. I want to see him as a starter, too, but I can’t disagree with the org’s decision to have him in the pen all this year. While he’s not out there long, you can still see him really learning _how_ to pitch, which he didn’t know before, how to use his breaking pitch to set up the fastball, how to finish a guy off with the split and still throw a good enough pitch to get the called strike out of it if necessary. Rafe as a starter next year will be in a much better position to succeed, I think. I don’t see the Mariners current management team as having the confidence and perspicacity to put both of them in the rotation, in part because it would open them to criticism about ‘weakening the pen,’ and the Ms management/ownership group can’t is terrifed of being second-guessed to the point that it cripples their thinking about appropriate talent utilization. . . . But one can hope that the group has a ‘wild and crazy’ moment, so.
Betancourt: Remember, he has very, very little professional experience; this is the middle of his _second year_ in OB. He’s making pretty good contact, and not trying to do too much at the plate. We’ll have to see how he and the league’s pitchers adjust to each other next year before we can really get his value sussed, but he’s hitting better than many other starting middle infielders right now. Oh, and don’t forget his defensive value.
Adam Jones: He’s way over his head, but we knew we were going to see that. The good news is that he isn’t striking out in bunches despite getting little but breaking balls. Next year, we can look forward to something of value from him. This year, he should be in Tacoma, and it’s hurting the Big League club to have him here. Yep, that’s our FO at work for us.
All in all, I like our core group. I DON’T like our management group. The latter liability will in all probability spoil the former asset unless changes are made, so here’s a vote for an overhaul at the proper level.
Yeah, it would be very much to Bean’s long-term advantage if he could trade Zito now, but given the standings he can’t do it. Oh well. It’s all about winning, right??
[i]He was at least average at third and was above average in the corners. [/i]
I dunno about that, he took some funky route when he played out in left.
Organizationally speaking, what would the priority be in getting improvement?
“Is this some kind of trick question? That’s what, four or five games? Do you think the AL West is going to be won by more than that? How often is a division or wild card decided by less than that?”
You misunderstood the question.
You have two positions to fill, 1B and 3B and $15M to do it with.
Player A generates 80 runs above replacement, plays 1B, and costs 15M
Player B generates 55-60 runs above replacement, plays 3B, and costs 3-5M
So, do you want:
Player A + replacement 3B, net of 80 runs
or
Player B + 10-12M 1B, net of 55-60 + ? runs
I’m pretty sure the second option is going to be higher.
#77: I have no problem at all in saying that the Ms have the worst management team in the division. They’re not KC/TB bad, but they’re . . . not competitive, as we see.
Considering that the Mariners continues to run Everett out game after game after game, I don’t think you can a priori conclude that the Mariners are not KC/TB/Pitt bad. Maybe the Mariners are better, but if so they’re not enough better to make that a foregone conclusion.
*****
If KC/TB/Pitt consistently had a top ten payroll, those teams would certainly perform better than they have. They would hang onto a few players they would otherwise deal away or let walk, and they wouldn’t always scrape the bottom of the barrel in FA signings.
IOW - they would become generally mediocore, with an occasional shot at the postseason mixed with some cellar finishes.
Which is to say, the Mariners might very well be a picture of what those teams would look like if their baseball operations staff had Mariner-type payroll and resources.
Beltre: If he were pulling down $6-7M a year, he wouldn’t be that bad a value. He’d sucked offensively 3 months of every 6—like now—but give fair offensive value the other months—like now—while playing friggin’ outstanding D—like now—and staying in the lineup even when nicked up. So if Tower of the Pades called and said, “I’ll give you some more of the junk I’ve palmed off on you before for Beltre and half his salary give or take,” it would make considerable sense. It’s the contract which makes Beltre the team liability he is. Unless Beltre keeps hitting like he did in April, I don’t see any way that the Ms kick in significant money, if ANY money, in dealing him, though, and they shouldn’t in the kind of scenario just mentioned. The Ms are paying him twice what he’s worth, but still he’s worth something and to trade that something _and_ a pile of money to get nothing isn’t the way to go. And I say that as someone who’s been advocating moving Adrian Beltre, Team Liability since last September.
And if Beltre is dealt, which I think should happen, who replaces him? The scenario had been to slide Jose Lopez over to 3B, where his bat looks a little less special but his production is the same and his defense probably better, and move Asdrubal Cabrera up to play 2B when he could hold his own. With Cabrera gone, it’s a big step down offensively to guys like Ishmael Castro or Oswaldo Navarro. If Lopez stays at 2B, Dobbs or Bloomquist are laughable non sequiturs at 3B offensively, and mediocre defensively. Thus if Beltre is moved now, say for pitching or just to dump his contract, the team gives up what he can do to insert a total hole in the lineup.
—So the solution is to move Beltre and a big chunk of his contract for an infielder who projects for 3B or ideally 2B. Not easy to do, not easy at all. One would be looking for a match (speaking entirely hypothetically since this one would never happen), of moving Beltre and a chunk of his contract for Eric Aybar, or the like. Really hard to do. But it’s what I’d like to see tried.
. . . Of course, I’d far rather have seen Asdrubal Cabrera kept, since Eddie Perez can’t help at all going forward. But Our Brain(t)rust doesn’t do roster building like that.
If Beltre is moved, I have a feeling it’ll be in the offseason, where there’s more opportunities to obtain a replacement.
Many people forget that Eddie Perez has a 1.8 million dollar option for next year. That’s one half of a killer DH platoon opposite of an Aussie.
I would hate to see the M’s trade Beltre for nothing. The cash is irrelevant to me, and should be to any fan without some indication on how or IF that savings would be spent. I have zero faith that it would be. I have heard that line before.
I don’t want to trade Beltre to begin with, but doing so for cash instead of talent horrifies me. And if we get suckered into giving him to someone so he can be an all-star again in the NL, well, we suck.
This team should be able to overpay a third baseman without blinking. It can’t survive its 1st baseman and DH not hitting at all, but it could survive a weak-hitting defensive whiz at third if they pulled their heads out of their collective ass about Everett.
I’m surprised no one has commented on the #2 on the list. Is John Lackey really that good?
His xFIP is 4.28, smack in the middle of his 2004 and 2005 xFIP. It seems like he’s actually a bit worse of a pitcher than he was last year — K rate is down a bit, BB rate up a bit, GB% down a bit. OK his FIP has consistently been 1/2 run below his xFIP, and is very good, but I’m not sure what that means — he consistently prevents fly balls from becoming HRs, which isn’t a real skill?
Is it simply that he’s cheap for a couple more years for a #3 starter? I wouldn’t swap Ichiro or Lopez for him (though I wonder about Ichiro’s value after he signs a FA contract).
Haha, remember when Dallas McPherson was so high on lists like this?
Beltre is still young-ish. He’s filling the hole at third, which was the conceivable least he could do when he signed that contract. I wouldn’t trade him just to dump the salary, there would have to be good bait.
Yeah, Lackey seems about #2. Front rotation starter for 3 mil.
It’s one thing to overpay your ‘hitter-as-rockhead,’ defensive whiz 3bman; it’s another thing to overpay him by ~$7M. Yes, the Ms can afford that—or could up to this year, though the presence of said Team Liability hurts both the Win column and attendance, methinks. But ~$7M: that’s a mid-rotation starter. We have Joel Pinada taking his turn every five instead of a solid pitcher in part because that 3bman is sucking up the budget quota for somebody else better. Although having that dough committed to Adrian means, perhaps, that we _don’t_ have Millwood’s deal to worry about, so there’s some upside: he’s saving the FO from itself. Hmmm, I hadn’t seen it that way . . . .
I’m against giving Adrian away, and a smart FO would build up the rest of the roster enough to compensate for his failures, kick him down to 6th or 7th place in the line-up, demote him in the team’s strategy, and live with it. Team’s which continue to build their offense and expectations around disappointments like Beltre turn into the Blue Jays of five years ago.
On another note, Doyle doesn’t need a platoon partner, so Perez just becomes a terrific pinch hitter who for one AB will force the other team to bring in a RH reliever to eliminate him every third game.
Oh, and the Ms 1Bman is _significantly_ outhitting it’s 3Bman; last year, this year, and I suspect every year that they’re both here.
Well, the M’s 1st baseman certainly should be outhitting their 3rd baseman… as should their DH.
But I dont know how you can say there is anything at all _signifigant_ about how much Sexson is outhitting Beltre this year. Their OPS is .010 points away right now.
And that’s with Beltre having an April so hideous it is unlikely to repeat.
I don’t terribly disagree with you on a lot, but I do not assume that the M’s don’t have anything because of their 3rd baseman. That’s a false dichotomy. The M’s can have both. And we’ve seen their accounting before when they “saved” money on a player.
Figure I’ll stick a prospect update in here:
—-Tacoma—-
Choo - .326 / .395 / .500, 12 HR, 19 2B, 3 3B, 24 SB, 4 CS, 40 BB, 67 Ks. Before today’s action (BFTA) (2 for 3, 1 HR, 3 RBI)
Doyle - .270 / .385 / .410, 4 HR, 12 2B, 4 SB, 1 CS, 26 BB, 39 Ks. BFTA (0 for 4, 1 K). Doyle’s slumping again. Maybe he’s angry that Everett’s still here.
LaHair - .301 / .364 / .388, 1 HR, 6 2B, 2 SB, 11 BB, 27 Ks (103 ABs). BFTA (1 for 4, 2B, 1 RBI, 2 SO). Yeah, I know he’s not a prospect.
Clement - .235 / .287 / .346, 2 HR, 3 2B, 3 BB, 19 Ks (81 ABs). BFTA (1 for 4, 2 Ks).
Cruceta - 8-6, 4.21 ERA, 107 IP, 56 BB, 132 SO(!), 13 HR(!). Gopheritis! Stirkeouts! It’s pandemonium!
—-San Antonio—-
Chen - .313 / .352 / .567, 3 HR, 6 2B, 1 3B, 2 SB, 4 BB, 8 Ks (67 ABs).
Balentien The Destroyer - .263 / .351 / .494, 17 HR, 20 2B, 11 SB, 6 CS, 40 BB, 97 Ks. God have mercy! Wladamir has nearly brought his K:BB ratio to 2:1!!!
Wilson - .344 / .425 / .634, 6 HR, 7 2B, 1 3B, 1 SB, 9 BB, 25 Ks (93 ABs). Legit? Small sample size.
Tuiasosoppo - .182 / .240 / .205, 2 2B, 1 SB, 7 BB, 29 Ks (88 ABs). Ouch Matt. Thank God you’re young.
Blackley - 7-7, 4.17, 108 IP, 29 BB, 69 SO, 12 HR. Travis has improved quite a bit lately. I don’t think he has given up a home run in a few starts.
Feierabend - 7-7, 3.96, 102.1 IP, 27 BB, 92 SO, 11 HR. Getting better and better.
Bazardo - 5-3, 3.20, 95.2 IP, 30 BB, 55 SO, 7 HR. Getting by on smoke and mirrors still, but has actually done better recently.
Rohrbaugh - 2-1, 2.73 ERA, 33.0 IP, 8 BB, 26 SO, 5 HR. Made the leap to AA rather well so far.
Kahn - 0-2, 5.64 ERA, 22.1 IP, 13 BB, 19 SO, 2 HR. Has not.
Chick - 1-0, 2.84 ERA, 12.2 IP, 9 BB, 9 SO, 1 HR (2 starts). Not much to go on here.
O’Flaherty - 2-0, 1.21 ERA, 29.2 IP, 12 BB, 31 SO, 0 HR, 2 SV. Also has done well with his promotion.
—-Inland Empire—-
Needs some damn batters. With the exception of Casey Craig, who wont get a shot in the Mariners organization (so sayeth Dave), nobody here is hitting for snot and doesn’t appear to be a prospect at all (or has already moved up to San Antonio). So I’m skipping this section until someone interesting comes along.
Nottingham - 4-7, 3.90 ERA, 110.2 IP, 38 BB, 100 SO, 8 HR. Why mother he’s cured!
Thomas - 5-2, 5.68 ERA, 44.1 IP, 18 BB, 52 SO, 6 HR. Having the same problems as Felix. Seems to be pitching well, but getting hit hard.
Rivera - 5-4, 4.30 ERA, 58.2 IP, 27 BB, 50 SO, 8 HR. Still having control problems.
—-Wisconsin—-
Lo - .353 / .450 / .471, 2 2B, 1 3B, 6 SB, 1 CS, 5 BB, 7 Ks (34 ABs). Advancing rapidly, and probably wont stay here in Wisconsin for long. This is definately a guy to watch.
Valbuena - .286 / .371 / .400, 3 HR, 16 2B, 6 3B, 21 SB, 7 CS, 44 BB, 44 Ks. Luis, I think, has found his groove again.
Williams - 2-4, 3.44 ERA, 68 IP, 64 BB(!), 82 SO(!), 5 HR. Somebody teach this guy some control before he kills someone.
Guaramato - 2-3, 7.17 ERA(!), 42.2 IP, 32 BB, 39 SO, 4 HR, 6 SV. Shawn Chacon anybody?
Woerman - 2-2, 2.12 ERA, 34 IP, 14 BB, 54 SO(!), 1 HR, 7 SV. Graduated to Inland Empire (Yay!).
Bibens-(BIBENS!)-Bibens-Dirkx - 0-1, 2.25 ERA, 8 IP, 1 BB, 11 SO, 0 HR, 1 SV. That’s 22 strikeouts in 14 professional IP for those following along here. Might be a stud righty setup guy.
—-Everett—-
Halman the Dutch Apple Bunkerbuster - .271 / .310 / .514, 4 HR, 6 2B, 4 3B, 10 SB, 4 CS, 3 BB(!), 29 Ks(!). Somebody learned how to hit the baaaalllllll… Duck!
White - .288 / .463 (WTF?) / .413, 3 HR, 1 2B, 2 CS, 25 BB, 24 Ks. Can we give this guy some steroids please?! His plate discipline is great, now if only he’d actually put WOOD on the ball!
Pimentel - .270 / .356 / .508, 4 HR, 1 2B, 1 3B, 9 BB, 9 Ks. Small sample size.
Schilling - 2-3, 2.88 ERA, 34.1 IP, 8 BB, 26 SO, 2 HR. Roughed up last outing.
Uhlmansiek - 2-1, 3.12 ERA, 26 IP, 14 BB, 27 SO, 0 HR. Ditto.
Fister (hee hee hee) - 1-2, 0.84 ERA, 21.1 IP, 4 BB, 20 SO, 0 HR, 4 SV. Moved to bullpen, doing well in all aspects.
Orta - 2-1, 6.35 ERA, 11.1 IP, 3 BB, 9 SO, 1 HR. I have faith that they drafted him for a reason.
—-AZL Mariners—-
Disclaimer: These stats mean jack.
Avila - .367 / .419 / .620, 5 HR, 3 2B, 1 3B, 3 SB, 1 CS, 5 BB, 21 Ks.
Van Gaalen - 3-1, 2.45 ERA, 25.2 IP, 2 BB(!), 19 SO, 0 HR.
Salinas - 1-0, 1.93 ERA, 18.1 IP, 5 BB, 13 SO, 0 HR.
Morrow - 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 IP, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0 HR.
Tillman - 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 IP, 0 BB, 0 SO, 0 HR.
Campillo(!) - 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 IP, 0 BB, 0 SO, 0 HR. Seeing a pattern here?
Varvaro - 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 2 IP, 1 BB, 3 SO, 0 HR (2 HB, hee hee hee).
So the question is, are they going to get any of these pitchers any more time throwing professionally or just stretch them out, work them out, and wait til Winter Ball to do jack? With Campillo, obviously, you have an injury rehab assignment, but will he be moved up anywhere? Morrow was supposed to be relatively advanced compared to a lot of other drafted college pitchers (the unsigned Andrew Miller notwithstanding), so it seems odd to not do anything with him so far.
Oh, and because I know you’re all just DYING to know:
Garciaparra - .385 / .385 / .846, 1 HR, 3 2B, 1 SB, 1 CS, 0 BB, 0 Ks. Rehabbing in the AZL.
Wlad the Impeller.
Not only has Balentien brought his BB rate way up, he’s also edge his K rate down slightly I believe. I want to see him do it next year in AAA for sure, he has to earn it, and I’m glad he’s the one guy in the system the development folks haven’t ridiculously over-promoted since he’s got a lot to work out in his approach at the plate. He’s made some strides this year—but God knows, he needed to do so.
speaking of trade value– from the Freep about Detroit’s interest in Soriano: “The Nationals recently asked for prospects Humberto Sanchez, Jair Jurrjens and Cameron Maybin in exchange for Soriano”
Where is the value for Meche coming from? My impression is that most of the authors (and readers) of this site would trade him for ~any (+) in the contribution/salary equation. I sure would. Especially Kotchman.