Comments on: Fun with numbers http://ussmariner.com/2006/07/23/fun-with-numbers/ Seattle Mariners and general baseball discussion with David Cameron and Derek Zumsteg Sat, 21 Nov 2009 08:17:03 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: BelaXadux http://ussmariner.com/2006/07/23/fun-with-numbers/comment-page-4/#comment-128708 BelaXadux Tue, 25 Jul 2006 06:20:45 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2006/07/23/fun-with-numbers/#comment-128708 Mat, thanks for the runner/non-runner splits on Beltre. I'd wondered on that issue, and the data puts it in perspective. It would seem natural that he'd hit better with guys on, but most of his deep hits and HRs that stand out for me in the last 7 weeks were with the bases empty, which his what the numbers say. Hmmm. A Food for thought. Oh, and Idahoinvader's perspective on Adrian not hitting with RISP jibes with this too, at least in principle. Adrian clearly presses. He presses with guys on. He presses trying to hit in Safeco. He presses because he cares. He presses because of the contract. He presses because he's a flawed hitter and keeps trying to 'make things happen' from behind in the count where he finds himself quite often. I think he presses for some other reason's too, but I don't have any proof. To me, there's a good chance that if he were traded to another team, his overall numbers would come up noticeably, though not to the moon, perhaps because he'd take some of that pressure off himself and just react more at the plate. That would tend to make moving him 'look bad' in retrospect, but that's just the way it goes. I'm totally NOT in favor of 'dumping' Beltre, far less moving him to take back a bad contract. He does some things well, is an outstanding defender, is a great teammate, and he has hit his way out of a catastrophic slump to disappointing but still useful numbers. If and when he's dealt, it should be in a thoughtful deal which helps the team. I certainly think that this could be accomplished. Mat, thanks for the runner/non-runner splits on Beltre. I’d wondered on that issue, and the data puts it in perspective. It would seem natural that he’d hit better with guys on, but most of his deep hits and HRs that stand out for me in the last 7 weeks were with the bases empty, which his what the numbers say. Hmmm. A Food for thought. Oh, and Idahoinvader’s perspective on Adrian not hitting with RISP jibes with this too, at least in principle.

Adrian clearly presses. He presses with guys on. He presses trying to hit in Safeco. He presses because he cares. He presses because of the contract. He presses because he’s a flawed hitter and keeps trying to ‘make things happen’ from behind in the count where he finds himself quite often. I think he presses for some other reason’s too, but I don’t have any proof. To me, there’s a good chance that if he were traded to another team, his overall numbers would come up noticeably, though not to the moon, perhaps because he’d take some of that pressure off himself and just react more at the plate. That would tend to make moving him ‘look bad’ in retrospect, but that’s just the way it goes.

I’m totally NOT in favor of ‘dumping’ Beltre, far less moving him to take back a bad contract. He does some things well, is an outstanding defender, is a great teammate, and he has hit his way out of a catastrophic slump to disappointing but still useful numbers. If and when he’s dealt, it should be in a thoughtful deal which helps the team. I certainly think that this could be accomplished.

]]> By: gwangung http://ussmariner.com/2006/07/23/fun-with-numbers/comment-page-4/#comment-128334 gwangung Tue, 25 Jul 2006 00:55:41 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2006/07/23/fun-with-numbers/#comment-128334 <i> The only problem with that is that with Lopez in the 2 slot it was Bunt-o-Rama. </i> That, in itself, may be a reason to keep Beltre at the 2 slot. The only problem with that is that with Lopez in the 2 slot it was Bunt-o-Rama.

That, in itself, may be a reason to keep Beltre at the 2 slot.

]]> By: Ralph Malph http://ussmariner.com/2006/07/23/fun-with-numbers/comment-page-4/#comment-128333 Ralph Malph Tue, 25 Jul 2006 00:48:22 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2006/07/23/fun-with-numbers/#comment-128333 Ideally, if Beltre keeps hitting, I'd like to see him batting 3 and Lopez 2. Lopez doesn't seem to have responded well to moving to #3. The only problem with that is that with Lopez in the 2 slot it was Bunt-o-Rama. Ideally, if Beltre keeps hitting, I’d like to see him batting 3 and Lopez 2. Lopez doesn’t seem to have responded well to moving to #3. The only problem with that is that with Lopez in the 2 slot it was Bunt-o-Rama.

]]> By: Dave Clapper http://ussmariner.com/2006/07/23/fun-with-numbers/comment-page-4/#comment-128332 Dave Clapper Tue, 25 Jul 2006 00:42:20 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2006/07/23/fun-with-numbers/#comment-128332 159: Especially when considering, as Dave pointed out, that taking ballpark effect into account, AB's productivity may well be the best of any 3B in the West this season. 159: Especially when considering, as Dave pointed out, that taking ballpark effect into account, AB’s productivity may well be the best of any 3B in the West this season.

]]> By: John in L.A. http://ussmariner.com/2006/07/23/fun-with-numbers/comment-page-4/#comment-128331 John in L.A. Tue, 25 Jul 2006 00:41:10 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2006/07/23/fun-with-numbers/#comment-128331 "Well, I can think of people who’d object to the latter." Heh. Me too. But I probably used bad numbers, anyway. Let me rephrase it to say the M's can afford to overpay an awesome defense, .775-.825 OPS, third baseman. Because even with SafeCo, I think Beltre is an around .800 OPS guy. Heck, I think he finishes THIS season on the right half of the .700's, .770 - .790 or so. “Well, I can think of people who’d object to the latter.”

Heh. Me too. But I probably used bad numbers, anyway. Let me rephrase it to say the M’s can afford to overpay an awesome defense, .775-.825 OPS, third baseman.

Because even with SafeCo, I think Beltre is an around .800 OPS guy. Heck, I think he finishes THIS season on the right half of the .700’s, .770 – .790 or so.

]]> By: Ralph Malph http://ussmariner.com/2006/07/23/fun-with-numbers/comment-page-4/#comment-128330 Ralph Malph Tue, 25 Jul 2006 00:39:44 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2006/07/23/fun-with-numbers/#comment-128330 The advantage for Beltre of moving to #2 isn't just having Ichiro on base. It's also having Ibanez behind him instead of C-Rex. Or Reed. That might get him some better pitches even with the bases empty. The advantage for Beltre of moving to #2 isn’t just having Ichiro on base. It’s also having Ibanez behind him instead of C-Rex. Or Reed. That might get him some better pitches even with the bases empty.

]]> By: terry http://ussmariner.com/2006/07/23/fun-with-numbers/comment-page-4/#comment-128329 terry Tue, 25 Jul 2006 00:35:39 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2006/07/23/fun-with-numbers/#comment-128329 I have just one word for them DEEEEEEEEache.... :-P I have just one word for them DEEEEEEEEache…. :-P

]]> By: gwangung http://ussmariner.com/2006/07/23/fun-with-numbers/comment-page-4/#comment-128328 gwangung Tue, 25 Jul 2006 00:33:24 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2006/07/23/fun-with-numbers/#comment-128328 <i> Having said that, the way some posters here skewer Manny Ramirez for his defense, I would just to see how this crowd would take to Wily Mo’s. </i> With great glee and sharpened knives. But there'd be folks defending that bat....and THAT would be the fun part, when there's ammunition on both sides... Having said that, the way some posters here skewer Manny Ramirez for his defense, I would just to see how this crowd would take to Wily Mo’s.

With great glee and sharpened knives.

But there’d be folks defending that bat….and THAT would be the fun part, when there’s ammunition on both sides…

]]> By: LB http://ussmariner.com/2006/07/23/fun-with-numbers/comment-page-4/#comment-128327 LB Tue, 25 Jul 2006 00:31:41 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2006/07/23/fun-with-numbers/#comment-128327 #158: <i>That being said, Wily Mo Pena would absolutely brutalize Safeco… so what if he only hits it 420 feet instead of 500 feet there? </i> Wily Mo would brutalize the Grand Canyon (if it were a ballpark). Having said that, the way some posters here skewer Manny Ramirez for his defense, I would just to see how this crowd would take to Wily Mo's. #158: That being said, Wily Mo Pena would absolutely brutalize Safeco… so what if he only hits it 420 feet instead of 500 feet there?

Wily Mo would brutalize the Grand Canyon (if it were a ballpark).

Having said that, the way some posters here skewer Manny Ramirez for his defense, I would just to see how this crowd would take to Wily Mo’s.

]]> By: gwangung http://ussmariner.com/2006/07/23/fun-with-numbers/comment-page-4/#comment-128326 gwangung Tue, 25 Jul 2006 00:30:53 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2006/07/23/fun-with-numbers/#comment-128326 <i> 156 - I agree that, in my opinion, those two changes would help us more than anything else. And the DH one is SO easy, it’s maddening. As I keep saying, the M’s can afford, both financially and roster-wise, to overpay a defensive whiz at third with a .725-.800 OPS. </i> Well, I can think of people who'd object to the latter. But all the OTHER stuff really is maddening. Keeping C-Rex on the team? Stupid. Trotting Mateo out for so many innings? Madness. Overusing Bloomquist? Idiotic. Letting your bench rot? Mind boggling. Not using Perez in key situations? Stupefying. All that stuff really pushes Beltre and his production waayyyy down the list. 156 – I agree that, in my opinion, those two changes would help us more than anything else. And the DH one is SO easy, it’s maddening.

As I keep saying, the M’s can afford, both financially and roster-wise, to overpay a defensive whiz at third with a .725-.800 OPS.

Well, I can think of people who’d object to the latter.

But all the OTHER stuff really is maddening. Keeping C-Rex on the team? Stupid. Trotting Mateo out for so many innings? Madness. Overusing Bloomquist? Idiotic. Letting your bench rot? Mind boggling. Not using Perez in key situations? Stupefying.

All that stuff really pushes Beltre and his production waayyyy down the list.

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