New and improved Gil Meche
DMZ · July 25, 2006 at 12:58 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Larry Stone, o’er at the Seattle Times, writes of Meche’s success and the choice it presents the team right now.
“My whole thought process has changed,” Meche said Monday on the eve of a tasty showdown tonight with Roy Halladay. “Whether people think it’s a fluke, I know the feelings I’m having on the mound are different than I’ve ever had before.”
If you haven’t already read it, I recommend Dave’s post “What is Gil Meche?” on the stats behind the turnaround, and reasons to be skeptical that it’s sustainable.
Comments
40 Responses to “New and improved Gil Meche”
I clicked the “guardedly optimistic” choice to the left.
so my question is… what are the chances the gil has just ‘turned the corner??’ It’s been my impression for his years of service that he’s always had the arm, it was just between his ears that was holding him back.
what odds would you give him that he’s figured somthing out, and he really can sustain this? I mean it CAN happen right? 1/100? 1/10? 3/5?
I think Gil has found his control and added some deception to his delivery to help prevent people from keying in on his pitches so easily. This would explain both why he’s walking fewer guys and striking out more, missing more bats.
However, Dave is correct that the home run to flyball percentage that Gil has is pretty low right now and will come back up. When that happens Gil will look less like a stud ace and more like a 4th man in the rotation, with 3rd man being his ceiling.
Frankly, we just don’t know what Gil is going to do the rest of the year. He could keep up his low walk, high strikeout rates but give up more longballs or he could increase his walk rate back towards his career averages, keep the strikeouts up, and still give up more homeruns. Or he could continue the way he is all the way through. It’s just not predictable right now.
A few weeks ago I was in the ‘trade Gil for a box of hot dogs’ camp but given how close the M’s will be to first place at the trade deadline, I think we have to hang on to him. I have no idea what we’ll get from him down the stretch but I hope the ‘trade Gil’ school is out for the summer.
The offseason is the offseason. Worry about what to do with Gil then. Although you can put me in the category of hoping the Yankees offer him Jaret Wright money and make it an easy decision.
what odds would you give him that he’s figured somthing out, and he really can sustain this? I mean it CAN happen right? 1/100? 1/10? 3/5?
Depends on what you mean by “this” – if this is his season line, posting a 3.80 ERA while pitching half his games in Safeco Field, yea, there’s probably a 1 in 3 chance he can sustain that for several years. The 2 in 3 chance would encompass injury possibilities as well as regression to previous form and just general attrition.
If by “this”, you mean how he’s pitched his last 10 starts or so, the answer is pretty close to “he can’t”. There’s just no such thing as a starting pitcher type who throws the ball over the plate all the time, gives up a lot of flyballs, and prevents home runs. Those skills just don’t go together. He could sustain two of those three skills (likely the throw it over the plate and give up a lot of flyballs skills), but all three at the same time? No.
So, there’s a 0.01% chance he could pitch like a Cy Young candidate for the next few years, probably a 30-35% chance he could pitch like a #3 or #4 starter whose stats are inflated by Safeco Field, and a 60-65% chance that he returns to previous suckitude or gets hurt.
I don’t know it is just between his ears, so to speak.
Gil has adjusted his routine on his days off, so now he throws quite a bit less in between starts. I am not saying this is the end-all, but Mazzone insists on a modified off-day routine for his pitchers (don’t know the specifics, I apologize) and that has been discussed as one of the keys for his pitchers’ continued success.
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Dave, is that 30-35% chance based on what happens to P’s who seem to have breakout years in their late 20’s?
I’ve been fond of pointing out similarities to guys like Clement and so on… but the failures (the guys who implode at 28 after a breakout year at 27 who have similar skillsets to Meche- RHP, flyball P, profiles as a power pitcher with decent velocity but not an outstanding one, some decent pickup in Ks and BB/K ratio at 27) might not be as noticeable. I think he’s somewhere between Brett Tomko at a similar age (worst case) and Matt Clement at a similar age (best case) if he stays healthy. (Clement’s really a 3, not a TOR starter, I think).
Coaching baseball and teaching baseball biomechanics is more or less a hobby for me, these days. But at one point, I was training at competing at the highest amateur levels – as a pitcher. One thing I know is that pitching is a learned skill. It takes a lot of time, and a lot of effort, to develop consistency. However, even older players can get it done. I spent 5 years in the Navy before college, and walking on to my Division 1 baseball team was a huge challenge after such a long layoff. But, after three years working with the team, I did finally learn how to get Division 1 hitters out. Which brings me to my point.
I have disagreed with Dave before over the perceived quality of Meche’s “stuff”. It has long been my opinion that Meche’s struggles were less the product of movement/velocity and more about repeatable location. If Meche has learned to pitch with consistency – then there is absolutely no reason why he cannot sustain success. In my learned opinion – Meche has learned to pitch.
Dave, is that 30-35% chance based on what happens to P’s who seem to have breakout years in their late 20’s?
Well, the 30-35% chance is a number essentially pulled out of my mind based on the work I’ve already done on the issue – its not some hard and fast actuarial computation. Just so everyone is clear – that’s just my opinion of the odds.
There are obviously many different ways Meche’s career could go from here, and TIF is right, none of us know what’s going to happen. He could be a Jaret Wright/Jon Garland type (fluke), a Brett Tomko type (perennial disappointment), a Matt Clement/Ted Lilly type (tease), or even a Jose Contreras type (inconsistent, but effective). There’s obvious potential to go both ways.
“…I know the feelings I’m having on the mound are different than I’ve ever had before.”
Sounds like someone’s going through some sort of baseball puberty.
Clement’s not really what I’d call a tease (in the sense of being an OK #3 starter) if you look at it at a similar age to Meche.
Age 27 (Meche’s age): 12-11, 3.60 ERA, 112 ERA+
Age 28: 14-12, 4.11 ERA, 103 ERA+
Age 29: 9-13, 3.68 ERA, 123 ERA+
(becomes free agent and gets superhuge contract)
Age 30: 13-6, 4.57 ERA, 96 ERA+ (and injured)
The difference is that Meche’s big year comes at age 27- so I think there’s a shot he doesn’t get the same kind of deal. Plus Clement never made multiple trips to the minors.
I’d class Jaret Wright in “this is what you’d get if Gil gets injured again” class- since he did great in 2004 like Gil’s doing now at a similar age and then blew his arm out in 2005, and his BB/K numbers are way down in 2005 and 2006.
Lilly has the misfortune of pitching in a bad place- Rogers. He’d be someone I’d be targeting in the FA market for “mid-rotation starter”, and he’s not that far off what Clement did- it’s just the NL and a better park helps Clement out. You’d probably pay a premium compared to Meche because his overall numbers are better- but he could have a better shot at sustaining his numbers.
I have disagreed with Dave before over the perceived quality of Meche’s “stuffâ€Â. It has long been my opinion that Meche’s struggles were less the product of movement/velocity and more about repeatable location. If Meche has learned to pitch with consistency – then there is absolutely no reason why he cannot sustain success. In my learned opinion – Meche has learned to pitch.
I agree that his stuff is good enough to be an okay major league pitcher, especially in Safeco Field. My issue has always been with people who spout the myth that he has ace stuff, and has the repertoire of an all-star pitcher. He doesn’t.
His fastball velocity is fine but not spectacular. 91-94 for an RHP is slightly above average. It doesn’t have much sink, and it doesn’t induce groundballs. A 4 seam fastball at 91-94 MPH? A few hundred major league pitchers can throw that.
His curveball has good break, but it’s a slow curve, not a power hook. He’ll get most of his strikeouts looking at the curve, not swinging. I prefer the power curve.
His change is his best pitch, in my opinion, but he rarely throws it.
The slider is a show-me pitch that he busts out if his curve isn’t working, but isn’t part of his regular arsenal, and isn’t as good as his curve.
That’s not the stuff of an ace. That’s the stuff of a mid-rotation guy who needs good command to succeed.
Another way to look at performance sustainability is to evaluate a pitcher’s margins for error. The better your combination of timing variation/movement/velocity, the less critical precise accuracy becomes. Hernandez will be less victimized by mistake pitches than Moyer, and Meche is somewhere in between. Moyer’s stuff is better than meets the eye, however, in that his timing component is at the top of the quality chart, even if his velocity is at the bottom. Irregardless, Moyer still has to rely on the most difficult skill for a pitcher – precise location (which is also the easiest for hitters to adapt to).
So, Meche’s chances for sustainability are higher than the Moyer types, less than the Hernandez types, and best compared to pitchers throwing equivalent velocity/movement. I’m not sure if relying strictly on statistical comparisons really means that much if the pitchers don’t have a similar style.
I didn’t see Dave’s response while writing my last post – but it boils down to the same thing. Command. Command is location/velocity/spin. Right now, Meche has it. Any opinion on sustainability will be based on your opinion of how much the location portion factors into Meche’s success – given that this is the most difficult pitcher skill to master.
Right – we basically agree on his stuff, and the issue is whether he can sustain his command.
Considering how unpredictable command can be across the board, and Meche’s past inconsistencies, I’m not sure why we’d be confident that he absolutely can sustain it going forward. Clearly, there’s a chance he can, but there’s clearly a chance he can’t, either.
This reminds me of the Freddy Garcia argument in 2004. Garcia’s stuff was always overstated in my mind, he had inconsistent command, and his reputation was aided by Safeco Field. Garcia has declined significantly since arriving in Chicago, and it’s certainly within reason to expect Meche’s performance to decline (or regress, if you prefer), even while acknowledging that it’s not impossible that he can be a mid-rotation guy if everything goes right.
JAS–“Irregardless” isn’t a word……Perhaps you meant “Regardless”???
My guess is, Dave, we target one of Schmidt/Matsuzaka in the offseason and one guy in the Lilly/Meche/Moyer class of second tier P’s, and end up trying someone like Lowe or Soriano in the 5th spot.
Given that, and seeing how the 2006 FA Pitching Crapshoot-O-Rama turned out, is Meche a reasonable option? And at what price?
My guess is, Dave, we target one of Schmidt/Matsuzaka in the offseason and one guy in the Lilly/Meche/Moyer class of second tier P’s, and end up trying someone like Lowe or Soriano in the 5th spot.
I don’t think I’d put Moyer in the Meche/Lilly class. Moyer’s only getting a one year deal, probably for the same $5-6 million, and is very unlikely to leave Seattle. Meche/Lilly will probably both get 3/24 or something in that range.
I think we’ll have to see how the rest of the roster shakes out before we know how the pitching staff plays out. If they move Beltre or Sexson, they’ll free up some salary that they’ll probably use towards a starter. If they don’t, then they’re probably skimping by in the rotation.
My WAG on the ’07 rotation, considering it’s way too early to know how this stuff will shake out, will be Felix, Matsuzaka, Washburn, Moyer, and Feierabend, with Putz, Soriano, Sherrill, Veteran Reliver, Lowe, O’Flaherty, and Woods rounding out the bullpen.
As for Meche, I’d make him one offer: 1 year, $8 million guaranteed, team options for second and third years at $9 mil per with small (250K or so) buyouts. He’d turn that down, and I’d let him walk and take my compensatory draft picks without losing any sleep.
17. price will also depend on whether or not Meche realizes the posative effect a park like Safeco has on pitchers like him. Or if you prefer, if he is more interested in a solid career or big money.
16: irregardless of your post, it is in fact a non-standard word synonymous with regardless – and less often used. It’s usage is not formal, but more common in casual writing – such as this blog. In formal writing, it would be considered a blunder.
As for baseball, someone posted (the other day) that Fontaine is against turning Lowe into a starter. Is there a source for such insight? I would also suspect that Soriano is likely to remain in the pen if he is susceptible to dead arm syndrome (2nd apparent episode).
FWIW, most similar pitcher through age 26 (before this season started) to Gil Meche is Jason Schmidt
http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mechegi01.shtml
I’d take that from Meche.
Dave, any thoughts as to which one of Soriano or Lowe would be a better candidate for the rotation next year? Or do they both stay in the pen?
Moyer’s only getting a one year deal
If he doesn’t retire. I wonder if 2006 might end like 2004 for him (with the complete understanding that it might not)- and at his age, a half season where he gets pounded probably means he’s not going to get a lot of interest, except in the form of “hey, we’ll be happy to give you an NRI”.
Meche/Lilly will probably both get 3/24 or something in that range.
They’re gonna get more than Loaiza? With less resume (especially in Meche’s case)? Huh. I suppose.
I’m also kinda scared of a rotation with THREE LH finesse Ps in a park that could get reconfigured to be more HR friendly to RHB, which is why I like the idea of Lowe- but hey, let Feierabend go into the mix and see what happens. (Is Feierabend a GB or FB pitcher? GB would make me feel a LOT better.)
Seems like Lowe has the youth/injury history/pitch selection advantage on Soriano, as far as becoming a starter.
Dave, any thoughts as to which one of Soriano or Lowe would be a better candidate for the rotation next year? Or do they both stay in the pen?
I’d try both, but I’m crazy. The organization is leaning towards trying neither. If forced to choose, it sounds like Soriano is the more likely bet to start.
They’re gonna get more than Loaiza? With less resume (especially in Meche’s case)? Huh. I suppose.
Scouting reports on Loaiza have never lived up to his good performances. Teams still lean heavily on scouting reports when it comes to FA pitchers, so a guy like Loaiza who throws 88-91 when he’s on won’t make as much as a guy who throws 91-94. Plus, Meche and Lilly were both top prospects – they’re “supposed to be good” in a lot of people’s minds, whereas Loaiza was just a guy who had a couple of good years. Call it Kris Benson syndrome.
(Is Feierabend a GB or FB pitcher? GB would make me feel a LOT better.)
Extreme flyball pitcher. Julio Mateo type flyball pitcher. It’s the only thing about him I don’t like. I should note, though, that Jered Weaver is also an extreme, Julio Mateo type flyball pitcher. And he’s doing okay.
So, basically, Feierabend = the new Jarrod Washburn?
I could live with that if he’s cheap, but we already have the EXPENSIVE Jarrod Washburn and possibly Jamie for 2007. 3 finesse flyball LHPs without real plus fastballs? It seems you’d have problems with people getting their timing down on hitting all the changeups and crap all 3 guys would be throwing. Not a lot of variation in the approach to hitters and so on.
If we were going to add finesse LHP to the rotation mix without a 92 MPH fastball, I’d like a groundball, Bill Lee/Kenny Rogers kind of P, please, with a good sinker (not those players, but that TYPE of pitcher). Double plays cure a lot of ills, especially with our middle infield.
I’m not sure what to think of the “Gil Meche has finally learned to pitch” stuff.
In 2003 when he had a pretty good run he looked way better than he does now. It’s not even close. He had command of his two seam and four seam fastballs to go along with almost perfect command of his change up and curveball. And to go along with that he had a gameplan and completely changed how he’d go after hitters the second and third times through the line up.
How he morphed into a throw a 92 mph fastball down the middle without any recognizable game plan in 04′-05′ is a complete mystery to me. Once his command went out the window I guess everything else went with it.
Another odd thing about that run…he would always swing his arms over his head during his wind up. And after a few bad starts leading up to the All-Star break he changed it. And basically he never recovered. There is no evidence that how a pitcher winds up would dramatically effect their results. BUT maybe his timing was thrown off which caused the control problems. I have no idea why a pitching coach wouldn’t go back to those starts in 2003 (I’m sure they have the tape) and see what he was doing differently…maybe they already have.
All that being said, my overall conclusion is when his arm is healthy (least worn down) that’s when he has his best results. Due to his past injury history I just don’t think he can be effective for 200 innings. Which is why they should have tried him as a reliever.
I’d lean towards trying both Lowe and Soriano as starters too. Why not?
Although with Soriano having dead arm syndrome again maybe he should stay in the pen, which would not be the worst thing in the world.
Any speculation on why this seems to keep happening to Soriano? Is it just from coming back from an injury?
#20– it was Bavasi on the postgame show, saying that when he asked about him starting Bob Fontaine was against it; Bavasi didn’t go into detail, implying that he didn’t want to try to speak for Fontaine, but the feeling seemed to be his arm was physically better suited for relief. Dave may well have better info; hmm, think Fontaine would accept an invite to a feed?
“Although with Soriano having dead arm syndrome again maybe he should stay in the pen, which would not be the worst thing in the world.”
Although I generally agree that pitching in the bullpen is less stresful due to much fewer innings, sometimes I suspect that it is worse. As a starter you know when you are going to pitch, and you develop a steady routine in between starts. Also, you have to pace yourself throughout a game which means you aren’t throwing with maximum effort.
“Any speculation on why this seems to keep happening to Soriano? Is it just from coming back from an injury?”
I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s headed for another surgery. It was very foolish for them to bring him back the last few weeks after he was already experiencing some discomfort. It’s just not worth the risk.
#25:
Dave: I know that at the start of the season the Ms apparently were thinking of Soriano for the rotation next year, but that because of his TJ surgery this year would be bullpen only.
Do you get any sense that the now recurring shoulder stiffness is likely to cause the Ms to further postpone (or shelve) that plan?
I’m of the camp that Lowe should stay right where he is. You’ve got great coverage in the late innings.
Lowe
Soriano
Putz
and of course Sherrill as the LOOGY. Maybe if the M’s are in dire need of a backend rotation guy then maybe throw Lowe a bone and give him a spot start every now and then.
Do you get any sense that the now recurring shoulder stiffness is likely to cause the Ms to further postpone (or shelve) that plan?
If I may — yes.
At the start of the season, there was a chance they’d try him in the rotation, but I’d say there was a general lean towards keeping him in the bullpen and his workload down, with an eye towards getting him more and more work later in the season, making sure they were careful about monitoring his health.
If this is going to be a shoulder issue that’s of any significance, it’s going to reinforce the belief that he’s not durable enough to start.
If this is going to be a shoulder issue that’s of any significance, it’s going to reinforce the belief that he’s not durable enough to start.
Well, they have pretty good reason to believe that, then…early return or not….
We can hope that Gil’s improvement is his new, permanent baseline, but I think there have been more pitchers who temporarily get in a groove than pitchers who have an epiphany at Meche’s stage of his career.
Of course, there’s a greater worry – that he sustains this level through this season with the Mariners, gets a new 3-year deal with Seattle – and regresses.
So, basically, Feierabend = the new Jarrod Washburn?
No – Feierabend might not throw 95, but he’s not a pitch to contact guy. His strikeout rate has been climbing all season as he adjusts to Double-A (keep in mind, he’s 20), and in his last 6-7 starts, he’s been darn near unhittable. Washburn’s K/9 when he was in Double-A (at ages 22 and 23) was around 6.60 – Feierabend’s K/9 is at 7.57, and it’s over 9.0 in the last month.
Yes, they’re both left-handed flyball pitchers, but not all left-handed flyball pitchers are strike throwers with no out pitch.
A scout who saw Feierabend last month compared him to Chuck Finley – I think that’s a little optimistic personally, but I can see it. Feierabend (we’ve got to get him a nickname, preferably shorter) is projecting as a 3 BB/7 K guy – certainly not an ace, but not Jarrod Washburn, either.
hmm. well, the colloquial translation of his surname is “end of workday” … that give you any ideas
Dave
Your idea to offer Meche a one year guarateed contract with two more option years or forget about him is about the most intelligent thing I’ve seen yet. Especially if that decision is to be made prior to July 31 as that decision determines what else needs to be done for SP. The M’s have $74M spent on the 07′ budget so there’s roughly $21M left for three SP positions and a LF/DH position. Mateo needs to be traded and replaced with a LH RP. Dobbs needs to be replaced by Reed, Choo, or Snelling leaving at least one of them in AAA as insurance and possibly trading another one. One SP will come from in house but $21M probably won’t buy you two good SP’s and a good LF/DH. Do you see Bavasi making at least one trade this week to land one of those 3 positions? Will he go after a young player with a low salary so he only has to land 2 players in FA next off season with close to $21M?
New and improved Gil Meche tonight morphed back into same old mediocre Gil Meche of last year.
“Feierabend (we’ve got to get him a nickname, preferably shorter)” –
I always laugh when I see his name. In Germany you hear it all the time as a one word comment – it means, approximately, “work’s over, let’s go home.” (Feier = celebration, Abend = evening)
So I don’t know about nicknames – TGIF? If he proves to be HR prone – Outahere? If he keeps his K rate high in the majors – Good Night!?