Credit Where It’s Due
We’ve given Mike Hargrove a lot of crap this year, and honestly, he’s deserved almost all of it. His bullpen usage has been horrible, his lineups mindnumbing, and his dedication to managing by the book has been utterly predictable and hard to watch.
So tonight, I say kudos to Mike Hargrove – you earned it.
In the top of the seventh inning, you started warming Mark Lowe up, even though Washburn had only allowed 1 run through 6 innings and still had a pitch count below 90. When Ronnie Belliard doubled off the wall to put runners on second and third with one out, even though Washburn was just at 96 pitches for the night, you yanked the veteran and handed the ball to the kid with nine major league innings.
After he made you look like a genius by getting Jhonny Peralta out with a steady dose of nasty changeups, Eric Wedge sent left-hander Todd Hollandsworth to the plate. Hollandsworth can’t hit lefties to save his life, and you hadn’t used George Sherrill. You decided to leave Lowe in, and even though I wouldn’t have walked Hollandsworth to load the bases, you deserve credit for not going for the easy lefty-lefty matchup there.
Then, when Shin-Soo Choo popped out of the dugout to pinch hit, you again resisted going to Sherrill. This despite the fact that you knew Choo was useless against lefties, and you’d seen his haplessness first hand. You trusted the guy with ridiculous stuff, and it paid off.
Then, you sent Mark Lowe back out in the 8th inning, despite having the top of the order coming up, which included all-star lefties Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner. You got to watch Mark Lowe strike out the side in one of the most impressive performances you’ll ever hope to see.
You didn’t stick with a veteran. You didn’t get seduced into playing matchups. You let your newly crowned relief ace work multiple innings. You let him face perhaps the best hitter in the league, who swings from the left side, in a one run game.
I have no idea what got into you, but that was a well executed usage of the bullpen. Please, please keep it up.
Oh, and it’s good to be back.
Here here. 😉
Thank you for brining the ussmariner back online. I didn’t realize how much I missed it.
Hargrove loves to bring in a hammer-arm from the pen. In my view, he’s only overmanged his pen because he’s had less than complete confidence in his late crew. Prior to this spring, he had Unsteady Eddie Guapo, split-less Putz who was known to groove a few, Soriano who was great but damaged and presumably on pitch counts, and Sherrill who sometimes walks the guys he’s supposed to erase. Like too many managers, Grover inserted himself too much into the equation to keep his pitchers away from guys whose potential to hit them made him nervous. Looking at Lowe’s untouchable stuff, _Grover’s_ less nervous, so he doesn’t get nervous feet in the dugout.
I’m not convinced today’s late-inning non-intervention is because Hargrove is any smarter or any different, is what I’m saying, just that he knows Lowe and Putz should be able to erase any lineup in baseball right now. Putting any one else in is _lowering_ the prospects of run prevention, and he knows THAT well enough to stay out of the way. Well . . . that’s something.
I hope this signifies a trend (something from upstairs, perhaps…?) in bullpen usage. Like Boston using Papelbon in the eighth and ninth in a TIE GAME because, guess what?–he’s still the best option–Grover jjust let Lowe pitch and man can he ever. I never understood the logic of only inserting the closer when you have a lead. Use people’s strengths…nice to see. We need this series and we need all of Baltimore too. Here’s to the M’s getting that and more.
On Credit Where Credit Is Due, I’m reluctant to give any congrats to Bavasi and/or Pelekoudas on this, but consider: In phases over the last month, the Ms have acquired a DH with an OPS of ~1000 who costs them $4M a year, plus a potent pitch hit bat off the bench from the other side. Either other side. This guy can be neutralized by the opposing manager bringing in a same-handed reliver, but Hargrove can then hold up his magic mirror(image) from the bench and send a guy with ~1000 OPS out instead. This DH can cover 1B on occasion, certainly better than Raul Ibanez who is just terrible there. This DH is vastly better than the $4M DH they acquired in the offseason and just DFAed. To get this DH, they gave up Asrdubal Cabrera (blocked in the organization, though good), Shin Soo-cho (no real role here), and a middle level pitching prospect yet to be named.
This isn’t necessarily great GMing, but it’s exactly the kind of smart, cost-conscious improve yourself for the stretch plus give yourself some options going forward move that those holding that job title are supposed to achieve. I’ve been pretty negative on the trade of Cabrera, but things look better when the whole picture is developed. I was always a big fan of Earl Weaver’s platooning which allowed him to do exactly this, keep a lineup/field position slot filled with a high OPS bat from pieces no one valued as much and for less money than other teams had to spend. This move is a hell of a lot smarter than signing Carl Everett and hoping he goes on a tear for 10 weeks.
Trend? Torre has been willing to bring in Rivera in high leverage situations in the 8th for years, and even have him pitch two inning assignments in do-or-die situations. Other managers would love to do the same—but they haven’t had Rivera. Or Papelbon, v.06. Or Lowe, v.06. It’s the reliever not the manager who’s driving the usage pattern, methinks.
Is anyone else worried that Lowe will be overused with Soriano on the DL? Obviously he’s filthy, but Sherrill’s no slouch either.
Careful with the praise guys or you’ll jinx it. I’m haunted by the fear that Lowe will be traded for some guy named Slocumb who brings veteran grit and guile and a noodle for an arm.
Other managers would love to do the same—but they haven’t had Rivera. Or Papelbon, v.06. Or Lowe, v.06. It’s the reliever not the manager who’s driving the usage pattern, methinks.
Umm, no.
Tangotiger created this awesome little stat called Leverage Index to quantify the usage of players, specifically relievers, and see who was being used in high leverage situations.
Julio Mateo has an LI of 1.27. Rafael Soriano has an LI of 1.25. That’s the managers fault.
Look at the Yankees LI numbers. Rivera is at 1.91 and Farnsworth is at 1.74. Torre won’t hesitate to use Kyle Farnsworth in tight situations either, and Kyle Farnsworth is no Mariano Rivera.
Or, look at the Angels. Francisco Rodriguez has an LI of 1.99 and Scot Shields is at 1.60, while they don’t have another reliever over 0.78. When Scioscia gets into a high leverage situation, he uses those two guys, period.
Take a wander through the LI charts sometime, and I’m pretty sure you’ll change your mind. There’s not a lack of quality relievers out there. There’s a lack of quality managers.
Mateo was tired. don’t give Grover any credit
Call me a bandwagoner (hard not to be at this point), but Lowe is the real deal. It wasn’t just his stuff that made the Tribe look silly; he stuck his fastball where Johjima set up, his breaking ball grazed the back of home plate while bats whiffed helplessly two feet above, and the one pitch that was definitely a change-up plummeted straight toward hell where it came from. All were located.
If he isn’t moved into the rotation next year – then kept there even if he struggles – I’m gonna move to LA, sport red undies and buy season tickets for both myself and my rally monkey.
Dave, how much time on an average day do you spend looking at numbers?
Considering my day job is “cost analyst”, a lot.
Not sure why – but I always pictured Dave recklessly driving a Mazda from minor-league park to minor-league park while reading the newest Prospectus book and taking photos of hitchhikers out the driver’s side window. For a day job.
Cost analyst, huh? Beats what I do.
Yeah. Believe it or not, Dave’s a regular guy with a regular job.
“There’s not a lack of quality relievers out there. There’s a lack of quality managers.”
On this point, Dave, we’re definitely in agreement. Mangers who get the most out of their pens identify who’s best at getting outs, and turn to them when the outs are big. And if the issue is that Hargrove has been overusing Mateo this year to ‘save’ his big arms for presumed pressure situations, I couldn’t agree more. Although Mateo has been effective in getting those outs in stretches last year, and in patches this year when his arm was sound. The issue to me there is that Grover is still seeing Mateo for what he was and occasionally is, and not for what he mostly is.
But again, the real issue here is that Lowe is dominating, and Hargrove is willing to lean on that rather than that Hargrove has magically changed his ways. It takes someone that salient to get his attention off of so-so guys like Mateo. That’s _not_ to Hargrove’s credit in managerial smarts beyond having a baseline passing grade in the reality test.
Not sure why – but I always pictured Dave recklessly driving a Mazda from minor-league park to minor-league park while reading the newest Prospectus book and taking photos of hitchhikers out the driver’s side window. For a day job.
How did you know I drive a Mazda?
Yeah. Believe it or not, Dave’s a regular guy with a regular job.
I have a regular job. I’m not sure about the regular guy, part. I’m pretty weird.
Dave,
I’m glad you guys look at the numbers so I don’t have to. Thanks for all the time you guys put into this! I took it for granted until it was gone.
But again, the real issue here is that Lowe is dominating, and Hargrove is willing to lean on that rather than that Hargrove has magically changed his ways. It takes someone that salient to get his attention off of so-so guys like Mateo. That’s _not_ to Hargrove’s credit in managerial smarts beyond having a baseline passing grade in the reality test.
Mark Lowe has now thrown 10 major league innings, and he’s being allowed to pitch to Travis Hafner in a one run game? How many managers in baseball do you think come around that quickly? Two, three maybe?
For comparison, Ron Gardenhire had Francisco Liriano coming out of the pen to start the year, and his leverage index was 0.54. John Halama has an LI of 0.53, for the sake of context. Gardenhire was using Francisco Freaking Liriano as a mopup guy. Hargrove is using Mark Lowe to blow away Sizemore and Hafner in a one run game on the road after putting him in with the bases loaded to face A-Rod last week.
He came around on Mark Lowe really, really fast. That’s to his credit, whether you want to give it to him or not.
What’s Grover’s alternative? Soriano: hurt, and has been effectively since Lowe was called up. That is, clearly, part of _why_ Lowe was called up. Mateo: hurt, clearly, management knows more about this than we do, but hurt, losing effectiveness as you’re quick to note, and quite possibly losing his manager’s confidence. Sherrill: Grover has _never_ used Sherrill that way, and given usage patters would be HIGHLY reluctant to let George face Hafner. Bring in Putz in the 7th: ahh, no. Green to face Hafner, ’cause Greenie’s a little less raw?: Hargrove isn’t really stupid, and certainly not _that_ stupid.
And Lowe is dominating, wiht control, and has the fabled ‘mound presence.’ That get’s a manager’s attention in a hurry. Most manager’s are reluctant to push young guys into major confrontations like pitching to Hafner because ‘rookies can’t handle it psychologically blahbbity-blah-blah.’ Again, what was Hargrove’s option. I think you’re making more of my demural to clap hands for Hargrove on this then is there. Lowe was and is Grover’s best option, and being too short on arms to overmanage or mismanage he manages to use his best option. Call it smarts or call it necessity, but mother loves it, sure.
Further options to get Hafner out: Sherrill: pitched an inning the day before, and not a guy who bounces back all that well. Jake Woods?: *hahaha* mop up guy with poor control in a hitters park, gets lefties out—or gets smoked. I’d rather have the powersinkerballer in. If choosing right in Lowe or Woods makes Grover smart . . . well, I just hope he _stays_ that smart, ’cause the manager who can’t figure that one out is going to burn a lot of Ws sending up “Look Ma, I’m a Manager” smoke signals.
Sherrill: Grover has _never_ used Sherrill that way, and given usage patters would be HIGHLY reluctant to let George face Hafner.
Okay, I’m going to bed, but I can’t believe you, a pretty smart guy who watches this team, actually typed that. Sherrill’s already faced Hafner seven times this year (0-5, 2 walks, 4 K’s, by the way). Go through the batter vs pitcher matchups, and you’ll clearly see that he’s used to face the other team’s best left-handed hitters. When we play Boston, he comes in to get Ortiz (0-4, 2 K’s). When we play Chicago, he comes in to get Thome (0-2). When we play Cleveland, he comes in to get Hafner. And so on.
So, no, you’re just wrong. For some reason, you’re hell bent on not giving Mike Hargrove credit for using Lowe, and you’re distorting history to try to make it fit that viewpoint.
The fact that the Indians sent up Hollandsworth (L), Choo (L), Sizemore (L), Michaels (R), and Hafner (L), and Sherrill was not used in a one run game, is remarkable, and a huge change from previous usage patterns. If you can’t see that, you have a blindspot.
Dave, why not use Sherrill here? Isn’t this what he’s for? The move worked and Lowe has nasty stuff, but I would think a Lefty killer should be allowed to well, kill lefties… I agree that Hargrove over-manages, but this is one time that the whole lefty matchup thing would have been a good idea being there were so many in a row.
#5– any chance this is the ‘real’ Bavasi, as opposed to the one handed some helpful suggestions from on-high?
Dave,
You made a random reference to your Mazda last year. My immediate reaction was to register just to make fun of your choice in cars, but after considering that 1) this is your site, 2) this, a baseball forum, would be a poor place to put on the boxing gloves, given my inferior knowledge of the game and all, and 3) I actually ended up in a Mazda, and was (surprisingly) not entirely disappointed. And, despite your surly, Mazda-driving ways, we both love minor league/college scouting, photography, and watching Corco’s posts get deleted. You big lug.
Is the guy from #2 the same person that wrote this e-mail?
“What happened to the USS Mariner web site today?
New format is awful…and nothing about the trade that just came down with the Indians”
I’m all in favor of applauding Hargrove for NOT screwing up a game. I shall applaud far more lustily as he walks off, jock in hand, into the sunset and on his way to drag some other sucker of a team five to ten games lower than the average manager – in only half a season.
Dave, with the trade deadline Monday should we expect any more moves from the front office? Are the M’s still looking for an arm to add to the rotation?
[According To Dave:] “The interesting decision will come Monday, when the M’s must decide whether to eat the rest of Carrara’s $400,000 salary or option Julio Mateo back to AAA. Realistically, this should be a foregone conclusion. Besides his tendancy for the home run ball, Mateo has pitched reasonably well, and sports a serviceable 4.18 ERA and solid 1.21 WHIP. He’s got just 8 walks and 23 strikeouts in 28 innings, and he’s only 25-years-old. Carrara’s ERA stands at 6.26 with a WHIP of 1.71. He’s walked 12 and struck out 11 in 27 innings. He’s 35 and has no future with the club.”
http://ussmariner.com/page/554
Yeah, amazingly enough, there was a time when Julio Mateo was praised by folks such as Dave. Of course, now is a time when most people — including Dave, most likely — would rather have Giovanni Carrera (2006: 2.30 ERA; 0.83 WHIP; 12/3 K/BB ratio) than Mateo (2006: 4.69 ERA; 1.66 WHIP; 23/18 K/BB ratio) in the Seattle Mariners bullpen.
#9: said *****Take a wander through the LI charts sometime, and I’m pretty sure you’ll change your mind. There’s not a lack of quality relievers out there. There’s a lack of quality managers.*****
This is an absolutely perfect example of how sabermetrics can be a powerful tool to truly understand the reality versus the perception.
And on a slightly hung over note: the Ms are 3.5 games out of first, three games under and facing four games with Cleveland and Baltimore before a show down with firstplace Oakland (who might be Zitoless).
Is it the hangover or could there be a battle for the division lead in Safeco next week (in AUGUST!!!!!!!!!!!!!)?
#29: it would be nice to not even have to make the decision by shipping mateo to a reliever-starved team willing to overpay
> 29
So? What’s your point?
I was positively giddy “watching” Lowe on cbs’ gamecenter last night but…I have a sneaking suspicion that if he had gotten lit up, a ton of people on here would be screaming bloody murder that grover did not bring in Sherrill. Also, I had no idea his #’s against premier lefties was that dominating (22). I guess I still just need to actually see Lowe pitch to get truly excited.
Oh well, I’ll give him credit, even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while and Sherrill is like a Taco Bell crunch wrap supreme for today.
Just since I’ve been calling for Hargrove’s head all season, I’ll chime in and say I agree with Dave. Grover did a good job last night.
Maybe it’s the suddenly-CEverett-lessness of the team, but I feel amazingly optimistic. Pineiro starting today reminds me that the rotation is still rough, but I’m starting to think this team could do okay in the 2nd half.
Can we please make USS Mariner a WHIP-free zone? That stat has no place in serious analysis.
Sprinklers – great idea on a hot day.
On a Hargrove related note: Shannon Drayer said this morning on the pre-game show that Rene Rivera will be playing a lot more in the second half because Grover took a look at the numbers (Johjima’s playing time) during the break and was extremely surprised and worried, becoming instantly determined to reduce his workload in the second half.
WTF? What _is_ his job, if not keeping on top of things like that?
I think AK1984’s point is he’s going to be offtopic.
Yay comments!
Anywhoo, yeah I do like the fact that Hargrove is at least using the guy judiciously. Of course, he doesn’t have a lot of choice to use everyone in the bullpen- Soriano’s toast, the rotation isn’t getting out of the 7th inning, and with all the extra inning games…
And yeah, I’d rather the team took flyers on guys like Mateo (who before he was injured, had some oomph on his fastball) and Lowe than spend time farting with Veteran Relievers like Shiggy, Nellie and Gia. You can often get better performance for far less money.
Rumor has it that the M’s are hot after Carl Crawford. Does anyone have a read on how his defense would translate over to center? It seems a bit odd that guy like that would play left.
Considering that he is (I believe) under contract for the next 3 seasons, would you trade Jones or Clement for him? Because if he was a godd defensive CF, he would be instantly among the best players in the league.
#39: Cite your source, please.
I read that Buster Olney said it on ESPNEWS (which basically makes it fact, right)? I’m not really buying it– you think they’d try to move Baldelli.