July in Review (and then some)
Record: 11-13
Overall: 52-53, 3.5 games back of Oakland
Hitting: .255/.308/.391 (AVG/OBP/SLG), 4.21 runs/game
Pitching: 119 runs allowed, 4.46 ERA
(Major) Roster Moves
In: CF Adam Jones, DH Eduardo Perez, DH Ben Broussard
Out: “DH” Carl Everett, DH Roberto Petagine, OF Jeremy Reed
The Good
People may harp on the M’s for failing to make a big splash at the trading deadline, but swapping out Carl Everett’s rotting carcass for the platoon tandem of Perez and Broussard is one of the best moves they could have made. This pair not only provides a great deal more offense, but strengthens the bench as well. It also means the horror flick “Carl Everett’s 2007 Option,” rated R for grotesque batting performance, will not be playing at a stadium near you.
The most surprising development of the month has to be the emergence of Mark Lowe as a dominant reliever. Despite not having pitched above AA, Lowe has been unflappable since he arrived, sporting an 11:3 K:BB ratio and no runs allowed in ten innings. Perhaps even more surprising is Mike Hargrove’s willingness to use Lowe in late-game, high-leverage situations despite the hurler’s lack of experience.
Ichiro! hit .317 for the month, posting a .384 OBP while stealing nine bases without being caught. Yuniesky Betancourt also had a big month, hitting .374 to push his season mark over .300 and getting on base at a .387 clip.
The Bad
After hitting a robust .287/.343/.497 in June, the offense as a whole fell off dramatically. Jose Lopez (.263/.322/.263) and Kenji Johjima (.250/.280/.361) in particular had very poor months.
Jeremy Reed’s wrist injury put the M’s in the unfortunate position of rushing prospect Adam Jones to the majors. While clearly talented, Jones has been overmatched at the plate and is still learning to play the position. Without a viable option on the roster, Willie Bloomquist was also given four starts in CF.
In the course of a year, Julio Mateo has gone from above-average reliever to long reliever to being a guy you don’t want to see in the game at almost any cost. And yet, Hargrove continues to use him late in close games at the expense of his more talented relievers. Mateo lost three games in July while allowing close to two runners per inning.
Injuries to Rafael Soriano and Chris Snelling have left us shaking our heads, wondering if these two players will ever live up to their potential in the major leagues.
The Ugly
After ending June with a bit of momentum and a 41-40 record, the M’s dropped six straight at home to Colorado, Anaheim, and Detroit, getting blanked once and scoring a lone run on three occasions. That slide put them back in a hole they then struggled to climb out of all month.
Gil Meche, Jamie Moyer, and Joel Pineiro combined to start 15 games, throw 85.2 innings, and post a 6.62 ERA with 21 homers allowed. Oddly, each pitcher allowed exactly 21 earned runs for the month.
Going Forward
The M’s have a better run differential than either Oakland or Texas, trailing only Anaheim, er, Los Angeles, in the division by that metric. They also trail in the actual standings, meaning there’s still work to be done.
Despite their history of second-half surges and current division lead, Oakland doesn’t scare me—they’re injury-prone up and down the lineup and are getting very little production outside of Nick Swisher and Frank Thomas (and the Big Hurt isn’t exactly the model of health). The rotation is good, but they’re still too reliant on the health of Rich Harden and the performance of Esteban Loaiza.
Texas helped itself in a big way with the acquisition of Carlos Lee, but was unable to bolster a thin starting rotation. Off-season acquisition Adam Eaton, who has missed the entire year with an injury, made his 2006 debut last week but subsequently missed his next start due to food poisoning. He could be a boost down the stretch, but it’s not as if his career is full of healthy and/or dominant seasons.
That brings us to the aforementioned Angels, who despite their early-season struggles are the class of the division. Their top-notch farm system has already contributed this year, with more help on the way if needed. Further, even without Bartolo Colon they have the best rotation in the division, a rotation which should be strong enough to cover for their supposedly weak offense… an offense which has scored more runs, incidentally, than either Seattle’s or Oakland’s.
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Jason (and others):
How do you like Texas with the moves the Rangers made today? I don’t know that adding Kip Wells and Matt Stairs makes you better … but … what do you think?
Wells had an ERA in the threes in 2003, in the fours in 2004, in the fives last year, and in the sixes this year. I think you see where this is going. Stairs is a decent bit part, but unless he can pitch, I don’t think he helps that much.
The best thing I can say about July is that I’m very excited about August.
I applaud Bavasi for not giving in to temptation and making an almost certainly bad move today.
I have an entirely different attitude towards this team going forward. I like the line-up now, almost top to bottom… assuming that Hargrove doesn’t actually carry through on his threat to start Bloomquist two or three times a week, that would dissolve my good feelings almost immediately.
I would prefer Doyle be handed the DH job over our shiny new platoon, but freely admit that that is in part personal. I don’t think we could have a better second choice than those two.
And our team is immediately better with them replacing Carl. In the few games since he left we have already seen a marked improvement in getting on base and slugging… small sample size, of course, but one I think is pretty likely to continue, since it is just what you would expect.
As far as management goes… it’s still Hargrove and all that entails, but I am heartened that he seems to have abandoned that ridiculous aggressive baserunning nonsense… and that he had the option to use Carl taken out of his hands.
Our pitching I am much less bullish on, but not a lot to do about that right now. I think it probably keeps us out of the playoffs and would fare even worse in the playoffs, I think. But I have hope that we can adjust that in the offseason.
One last thing… I think we have passed an interesting in point in our two big FA signings from last year… I think Beltre has just passed Sexson as the better of the two and that the arc of their contracts is going to be very interesting with Beltre continuing to get better and better and Sexson worse and worse. I think we just hit the intersection of their value charts and that the path they are on now stays true.
Hm. I note the absence of Beltre from the Bad or Ugly side of the report. And I note absence of Felix from the Good part.
Hm. Beltre sustains? Felix a little improvement? Not big ifs, in my book….
And our team is immediately better with them replacing Carl. In the few games since he left we have already seen a marked improvement in getting on base and slugging… small sample size, of course, but one I think is pretty likely to continue, since it is just what you would expect.
I’ve seen elsewhere in the blogosphere is that the team tends to be free swingers (fewest walks, despite getting the most IBBs). That would lower the OBP, might explain the streakiness of the offense, especially given the youth of many of the players.
Jones last X Games: 7/23, 2RBI, 2SB
I agree he is overmatched at the plate. I am jist pretty optimistic about a guy who is so young and raw getting the experience he is getting.
Why would Beltre be in the bad or ugly part? His July was respectable.
.271/.333/.458
Felix could easily return to August’05 form. His fastball has been quicker lately, so he’ll have an easier time getting away with missing his spots. How many pitchers can walk six in six innings and still give up zero runs?
I know Felix has disapointed us all this year, but his K/9, K/BB, and GB/FB ratios are going to translate to dominance in time. That could easily happen now – and no one in the baseball world would be the least bit surprised if it did.
Umm, make that one earned run in six innings.
OK, new here.
How can Snelling being hurt be part of the “Ugly” when he started in RF tonight for Tacoma? Was he actually hurt or was this an elaborate roster move designed to circumvent an option year? I’ve really not read anything pertaining to an injury to CS aside from here.
It probably wasn’t a big deal. It’s good that he’s healthy.
I’ve really not read anything pertaining to an injury to CS aside from here.
Really? It was reported in the Times, the PI… everywhere, pretty much.
Eventually, Lowe has to give up one run, doesn’t he? Delete me if this comment is a jinxable offense.
But we can’t beat Oakland! We can’t! We can’t!
I am surprised that there is no mention of Sexson post-al-star-break. He has looked like regular richie since that time, at .276/.354/.603. Yes, the sample is only 65 or so PAs, but with career numbers around .266/.347/.522 it is possible that he has worked out whatever kink was causing his unnaturally low BA and is back to his normal self. If he is at even .260/.340/.500 the rest of the way, it would be a significant boost to the middle of the lineup over his pre-all-star .218/.288/.418.
So is Mark Lowe the newest Mariner to assume the mantle of Most Likely Object of a (non-sexual) Man Crush?
Why would Beltre be in the bad or ugly part? His July was respectable.
.271/.333/.458
I think that’s the point.
Beltre maintains, Felix improves a tad and we’re in a good position.
#10 – from today’s Mariners Notes in the Seattle P-I:
“Chris Snelling is on the DL for Seattle, so what’s he doing playing for Tacoma these days? He’s got some shoulder trouble, but it doesn’t hurt him to swing, so he’s serving as the Rainiers’ DH. … “
Don’t all signs point to the law of averages having its effect and the M’s sweeping the A’s this weekend? Position by position we have a better lineup (yes, even beltre vs. chavez is a wash right now) and we miss Blanton this time around (although get zito). I find it both frustrating and hard to accept that any of our division mates are better teams by any reasonable margin and I still think we can win the division, get knocked on our asses in october and come back next year with higher expectations and hopefully a stronger rotation.
I think the x-factor is whether or not Hargrove can stop being put in situations that allow him to make his boneheaded moves. For example, 8 inning outings by our pitchers every now and ten would help with exactly a 3 run lead in the ninth. Or if wfb gets pushed…er falls off the space needle…
#19:
Don’t all signs point to the law of averages having its effect and the M’s sweeping the A’s this weekend?
The law of averages does not make something more likely to happen because it hasn’t happened in the past.
Flipping a (fair) coin gives a 50% chance of getting heads on any flip, regardless of what has happened in all preceding flips. The chances of flipping a coin 50 times and getting tails 50 times in succession is 0.00000000000009%. But if you’ve already flipped that coin 49 times and gotten tails each time, the chance of completing the series and getting that 50th tails is still 50%.
The law of averages does not increase one whit the probability of that 50th flip being heads. Similarly, the A’s sweeping the Mariners earlier this season does not in any way increase the probability of the Mariners sweeping the As this series. If anything, the law of averages would indicate that a sweep by the As is more likely, because the law of averages would favor the hypothesis that the As are a superior team.
Clearly, the “M’s-A’s” coin is not a fair one.
While the M’s do have a good run differential, their 3rd order W-L record is virtually identical to the A’s, and lagging behind the Angels and Rangers.
#18– aren’t they calling it a rehab assignment? I did like Andriesen’s note last week about DL-ing him after he came up for the day — “Putting him on the major league DL, where he will continue to collect a major league salary, is likely out of concern about the players’ union, which sometimes complains when teams option out injured players.”
3rd order winning percentage assumes the absence of clutchiness. As long as we think clutchiness isn’t predictable, 3rd order winning percentage should be a better tool than run differential.
3rd order winning percentage also fails to capture changing rosters. This team no longer has Eddie Guardado closing games or Carl Everett hitting 6th.
Seattle in August/September will be a significantly better team than Seattle in April.
I saw in the Seattle Times this morning an allegation that there were Oswalt for Ichiro rumors. Did that actually happen?
There were rumors about everyone this year. Now, whether there was ever an offer out there — come on.
It really depends on what you classify as a rumor. Yes, the M’s called Houston about Roy Oswalt. Once Tim Purpura mentioned Ichiro, the talks ended.
To me, that’s not a rumored deal, or even something worth publishing. The M’s weren’t shopping Ichiro, he wasn’t available, and trading him was never a possibility.
Does 3rd order winning percentage apply to the Red Sox when they have a guy like Big Papi? That guy is clutch every time the game is on the line.
28. Why would Houston put Roy Oswalt on the market? Clemens will probably retire for good after this year, Pettitte has been bad and will probably go else where after this year. Even if they get Ichiro, without their big 3, how could they be any good next year? They also rumored to turn down a Brad Lidge for Hank Blalock trade proposal from Texas. I know Hank Blalock hasn’t been a good 3B the last 2 years, but they guy is still young and pretty cheap. If they get Blalock, they can trade Morgan Ensberg to SD for Scott Linebrink. But still, Blalock would still have a higher value than Brad Lidge, with or without trading Ensberg. I don’t know what their GM is thinking.
To me, that’s not a rumored deal, or even something worth publishing. The M’s weren’t shopping Ichiro, he wasn’t available, and trading him was never a possibility.
I’m new to the area, does the Times (I think it was stone) typically publish nonsense like that or was this unusual?
It came from Finnigan, and yes, he’s awful.
ahh – makes sense. I think he’s the one who commented that Beltre could be let go because Tony Batista among others would be available in the offseason.
Baseball is not a coin flip and most of the time any hot streak, any deviant from the general norm will eventually regress towards the mean. Luck tends to even out over time in baseball. Hitters that have a great clutch year, do worse the next and vice versa. Oak has gotten extremely lucky all year long and eventually it will run out and/or reverse course. It could happen this week or next or the one after that, but if there is any certainty in baseball its that teams with players playing (or not playing as the case may be) like Oak cannot sustain a winning record.
What I was pointing out was that with similar schedules the m’s have outplayed oak in every game but their head to head. I refuse to believe a particular team just “knows” how to beat another and that is why I expect the season series to even out at least a little bit.
#32– and of course, Mahler on KJR is taking it as gospel, and running with it.
I’ve been a doubter about whether the Mariners were sufficiently improved to justify optimism about the post-season this year despite their undeniable turn for the better since May. I do think, however, that if the Ms are still contending by the end of this month, that they will have demonstrated they’re good enough to deserve a play-off spot if one should ultimately fall their way.
So, I remain hopeful, somewhat optimistic and fully prepared for another broken heart…. Beating the crap out of Oakland this weekend would be a darned good start.
Baseball is not a coin flip and most of the time any hot streak, any deviant from the general norm will eventually regress towards the mean. Luck tends to even out over time in baseball. Hitters that have a great clutch year, do worse the next and vice versa.
You don’t understand what “regress towards the mean” means.
Or how luck works.
Also, none of your examples are true.
You’re wrong, is the short version.
Hopefully the M’s continue playing fun-to-watch baseball. It’s nice to see them in a better situation going forward then they’ve been in years.
34: Hitters that have a great clutch year, do worse the next and vice versa.
And sometimes hitters have a great clutch year, and do just as well the next year, and vice versa.
You really are misunderstanding the laws of averages and regression to the mean if you think that precding performance above the norm makes it more likely that subsequent performance will be below than the norm.
Let’s say there is a team that is truly a .500 team. By dint of luck, said team starts the season 24-8, a .750 winning percentage. Regreassion to the mean does not mean that the most likely record for the team in the remaining games is 57-73 (resulting in an 81-81 record).
Regression to the mean results from them playing like the .500 team that they really are, with a 65-65 record the rest of the way, and finishing the season 89-73 , a .549 winning percentage. Thre regression is from that .750 winning percentage to the .549 winning percentage, which is regression toward the true mean of .500. If the season were longer yet, the team would be expected to continue to play .500 ball, and the expected winning percentage would continue to regress toward .500, getting ever closer.
The regression occurs because as more games are played, the effect of the outlier events is diluted and diminished, not because there is a statistical demand that every hot streak be offset by a cold streak. After having had that 24-8 hot streak, that team is equally likely to reel of another 24-8 hot streak as they are to collapse into an 8-24 losting streak. It’s all random, unaffected by preceding events.
That, of course, is theory and assumes that teams are static, Teams are obviously not static. I think Oakland is far less likely to sweep the Ms now than earlier in the season. But that’s not because the law of averages or regression to the mean dictates that the As are less likely to sweep the Ms or that the Ms are more likely to sweep the As. I think that because the Ms are a better team now than when they pleyed the As earlier, and the As aren’t any better.
#18
I don’t want to split hairs here but he did start in RF last night.
#25, Speaking of Eddie, anyone notice that Guardado has been pitching great for the Reds so far? (6 saves and a 1.04 ERA, 9 strikeouts and 1 walk)
Must be that post-M’s bump that most players seem to get when they leave here. (OK, it probably just seems that way because lots of players do crummy when they leave, too).
The M’s put Snelling on the DL as a gift; he gets MLB money for playing at Tacoma.
I would guess the shoulder thing is real. It’s usually an early sign of rotator cuff problems in pitchers.
#41– or the fabled ‘AL is better’
#42– here’s a swell explanation of shoulder impingement…
39. I wasn’t saying seattle wins out, I understand regression towards the mean.
A team may be as likely to run off consecutive 24-8 runs as not statistically, but for the purposes of baseball it simply does not happen. For many reasons teams do not consistently always beat one certain team. That is all I am saying.
I agree with your last statement and that was the point I was making, albeit apparently not very well. I was simply trying to counter the negative attitude that we cannot beat Oak and will not beat Oak when the fact is they are very beatable. Sea edges them in nearly every notable hitting and pitching statistic other than hrs allowed and yet because of a 1-9, doom is predicted.
I think it is only a matter of time the talent displayed versus other teams translates to a game (or two or three) that is against the a’s.
I know I’m in the minority here, but I hope WFB gets 1-2 starts per week (not 2-3). I’m not a huge fan of his skills, and he doesn’t deserve to start, but giving your regulars a rest once in a while – Beltre, Yuni, Lopez, Jones – in the 2nd half of the season plus allowing the bench to stay sharp is a good thing… but seemingly outside of Hargrove’s philosphy. I hope that Benuardo gets Richie a day or 2 as DH or on the bench as well.
But the bench will rot, and the regulars will tire.
The only regular I’m really worried about is Kenji. He’s been playing a lot.
#46
I totally agree. More than anything else, I was really hoping they would be able to pick up a veteran back-up catcher at the deadline to give Kenji a break. Rivera scares me.
why?
47- Chris Widger isn’t busy right now…
the Rangers got Ojeda from the Rockies for cash & stuck him in Oklahoma…
Most likely because Torrealba isn’t having to bad of a season.
Rivera is an oddity, though; they seem to really like him for no obvious reason. If they wanted to replace him, they could just DFA him and put Quiroz back on the roster, surely?
As they’re fond of telling us on the broadcasts, Johjima’s started the most games of any AL catcher (or some stat like that). We’re also coming up on the number of games he’s “used to” playing in Japan, right? 130?
Rivera is an oddity, though; they seem to really like him for no obvious reason. If they wanted to replace him, they could just DFA him and put Quiroz back on the roster, surely?
i don’t know anything about him, but he’s 22, doesn’t play very often and last year in a similar number of PAs (small) he put up some fairly impressive numbers. his minor league stats don’t look that impressive so maybe it’s just putting a high value on the small number of appearances last year.
And in the “Where Are They Now” category for July, the Phillies DFA Ryan “I’m a Starter, Dammit!” Franklin.
re Doyle: FWIW, I heard some of the Tacoma game on the radio today, and he was playing right field.
kcw
Cheito is available after all…. (08-01)(AP) The Los Angeles Dodgers designated OF Jose Cruz Jr. for assignment on Tuesday to make room for their trade deadline acquisitions.
25 – Sure, Dave, but run differential has the same problem, so their relative merits stand.