Look back at 2006’s free agent pitching buffet
To harken back to Jeff’s post of similar title, I thought it’d be cool to look at how the 2006 signings are doing, looking at the deals they got and how they perform. I’m going to lean on xFIP (glossary!) here, because it amused me. In alphabetical order:
A.J. Burnett 5 years/$55M (2006-10)
The crown jewel of this off-season. Signed with the Blue Jays. He’s had injury issues and the team’s been cautious in pushing him back, looking at to the remaining four years on his deal. He’s barely over forty innings on the year, and while the ERA’s not so hot, the 41:8 K:BB ratio’s nice. While his ERA’s 4.25, his xFIP is but 3.29.
Kevin Millwood 5 years/$60M
Millwood was probably the general second choice of fans, including us. So far this year he’s thrown a lot more innings than Burnett, and he’s been reasonably good: in 116 innings, he’s struck out 78 and walked 25, and Texas doesn’t seem to be bothering him too much. His xFIP is 4.14, and that’s not that much better than the average is good, since xFIP isn’t park-adjusted, as Dave notes in the comments.
So those were the two big guys on the market, and neither of them have been worth the money. Burnett may yet turn in a performance through the rest of his contract to make it worthwhile, but Millwood’s a little less likely to pull that off, since he’ll be in his late 30s at the tail end of his deal.
The rest:
Esteban Loaiza 3 years/$21.375M (2006-08)
Ugh. This looked like he’d gone a little higher than market (Dave’s offseason plan had the M’s taking him for 3/$18m, for instance) but then the market for pitchers went insane, and suddenly it looked like the A’s had looked forward into the market and picked off a relative bargain.
Except Loaiza has sucked. He’s gotten into off-the-field trouble, and when he’s been on the mound for all of sixty innings, he’s been bad. 29 K, 27 walks is ugly, and that home run rate isn’t helping. His xFIP’s a whopping 5.75, and after a half-season, it looks like this deal is going to join a collection of weird, expensive deals Beane’s made that didn’t work out. It’s still a tribute to the A’s ability to construct a team that they’re able to do as well as they have when they’re fielding a team on a $60m payroll and $11m goes to Kendall and $6m goes to Loaiza right off the bat.
Loaiza’s had a weird career, and I’m not going to pretend I have any idea of how to explain it coherently. Maybe he’s done, and maybe he’s not — it’s certainly been thought before. But he has been flat horrible so far.
Matt Morris 3 years/$27M (2006-08)
Oh yeah, this guy. 72/39 K/BB ratio, 121 innings pitched, xFIP’s 4.83. At least they’re getting innings out of him, even if they’re not that great of innings.
Kenny Rogers 2 years/$16M (2006-07)
With his declining peripheral stats and age, I’d have stayed away from Rogers unless he came with a 50% discount tag or something ridiculous. But he’s been even better thais year than in the last few – he’s getting strikeouts, he’s not walking guys, and it adds up to an xFIP of 4.50. Same deal as the other guys: that’s too much money for what they’re producing.
Jarrod Washburn 4 years/$37.5M
Ah, the local boy. Not doing so well. He’s the pitcher he appeared to be in past seasons if you were paying attention, and not the superficially awesome pitcher some people saw. His K rate’s the same, more or less, his walk rate’s the same, the home runs, pretty much the whole package. As a result, his xFIP is only a little higher than what it’s been the last few seasons, while his ERA has skyrocketed from last year’s deceptive 3.20 to 4.58, which is only a hair better than 2003, and from there… yeah. Top-of-the-rotation money for mid-rotation fodder.
Jeff Weaver 1 year/$8.325M
You may expect that I’m going to hold my nose while I write about how stinky a deal this was. The problem is that in every serious way you want to measure it, Jeff Weaver has performed better than Jarrod Washburn, and that earned Weaver a trade off the team and the Angels ate a huge amount of his deal.
Meanwhile, the Mariners are happily cutting Washburn checks. Eeeeeeeeeeyup.
Halfway through the first season is too early to make final determinations, of course. They could yet get injured, or become stars, or whatever. But it certainly seems that in an irrational market, it doesn’t pay to participate.
My own opinion, ill-developed, is that pitchers are a lot like first baseman: it’s extremely hard to get your money’s worth in a free-agent contract. There will be cases where a pitcher is clearly worth the money if they’re healthy (Roger Clemens’ free agent deals, for example), and that might be as close to value as you get. In terms of making the least-worst deal in free agency, you’re much better off signing Carlos Beltran, say, over AJ Burnett.
Game 93, Mariners at Yankees
Washburn v Wang.
Today’s amazing Hargrove lineup:
RF-L Ichiro!
2B-R Willy “The Ignitor” Bloooooooomquissssst
3B-R Beltre
LF-L Ibanez
1B-R Sexson
DH-B Everett
C-R Johjima
SS-R Betancourt
CF-R Jones
That’s… Hargrove-iffic. So the bench for tonight is
3B/1B-R Dobbs
C-R Rivera
2B-R Lopez
DH/1B/?-R Perez
Brutal
In the past two days, the Mariner bullpen pitched 11 innings, almost all of which were extremly high leverage situations where failure would equal an immediate loss. The distribution of those innings, thanks to the amazing Mike Hargrove:
Julio Mateo, 2 2/3 IP
Emiliano Fruto, 2 2/3 IP
Mark Lowe, 2 1/3 IP
George Sherrill, 1 1/3 IP
Rafael Soriano, 1 IP
Jake Woods, 1 IP
J.J. Putz, 0 IP
The Mariners can talk about his leadership, his experience, his motivational skills, whatever they want. However, this series was bullpen mismanagement of catastrophic levels.
Seriously, just an absolutely awful piece of managing by Mike Hargrove. Major League franchises don’t penalize their managers for poor in game strategy, but when a guy lacks basic understanding of fundamental principles, he simply can’t be allowed to continue to perform them.
Mike Hargrove is the in-game strategist equivalent of General Custer. I, for one, can’t wait for the last stand.
Game 92, Mariners at Blue Jays
Felix vs Burnett. This could be a lot of fun.
And here’s a fun note; Shin-Soo Choo was optioned back to Tacoma after going 1 for 11 in four games, and Mike Hargrove noted the other day that they were trying to get his bat into the line-up, but it just didn’t work out because his defense in center is just poor. And he’s right, Choo’s defense in center is poor.
Of course, going 1 for 11 happens quite frequently, and is almost never cause for demotion. In fact, here’s a list of the times Carl Everett has gone 1 for 11 (or worse) this season:
4/7 – 4/12, 0-17
5/25 – 5/29, 1-14
6/2 – 6/6, 1-16
6/22 – 7/2, 1-11
7/3 – 7/7, 1-11
In fact, after last night’s 1 for 6, Everett is now 17 for his last 97. Since the beginning of June, he’s hitting .175/.231/.288.
Shin-Soo Choo was deemed unworthy to play for Mike Hargrove’s team because he went 1 for 11 and can’t play center field. Carl Everett, however, is allowed to hit .175 for 6 weeks, not be able to play any position on the diamond, and not even worry about getting moved down in the order, much less lose his roster spot.
I know we mention this a lot, but it’s mind-numbing that a team that is in contention for a playoff spot is willing to live with a DH who hits like a pitcher, while staring at several internal options who, it cannot be argued, are better hitters right now, and have the bonus appeal of adding some value on defense and on the bases. Regardless of what you may think about the reliability of minor league data in predicting major league performance, it’s an incontravertible fact that Shin-Soo Choo and Chris Snelling are better major league hitters, right now, than Carl Everett is.
Thanks to the rest of the AL West, the M’s are in the playoff hunt. And for the last 6 weeks, they’ve been sporting a DH who is hitting like a slumping Rey Ordonez. That’s just remarkable, and is a massive black mark against the people who control the roster and the line-up.
Uhh, sorry
So, this is what happens when all the authors decide to have lives – we miss a game thread. Sorry about that. If it makes you feel any better, though, Derek just biked about 2,431 miles (hey, I said about), Jason has been prepping some of the best food in Seattle, I’m in the process of painting my living room, and Jeff’s working on his book (not a novel, a good story) about the poetic stylings of Japanese professional wrestlers (he’s not – I actually don’t know what he’s doing, but he could, I’m sure).
So, yea, sorry.
Oh, and here’s an interesting tidbit. Take a look at these home-road splits for Mariner hitters who have played at least semi-regularly this year.
Ichiro – home: .360/.410/.475, road: .326/.385/.414
Beltre – home: .225/.284/.324, road: .290/.358/.475
Lopez – home: .250/.303/.389, road: .314/.333/.520
Ibanez – home: .301/.375/.557, road: .262/.325/.506
Sexson – home: .198/.267/.395, road: .242/.315/.441
Everett – home: .225/.314/.384, road: .240/.297/.352
Johjima – home: .231/.311/.351, road: .338/.362/.556
Betancourt – home: .303/.329/.375, road: .271/.286/.424
Reed – home: .196/.255/.330, road: .235/.264/.417Team – home: .256/.318/.397, road: .279/.327/.446
The guys who hit better at Safeco: Ichiro, Ibanez, and Everett, all left-handed. The guys who hit better away from Safeco: Beltre, Lopez, Johjima, Sexson, and Reed. Four of the five are right-handed. Betancourt’s a push, basically.
The M’s offense is essentially crippled at Safeco Field, when you turn the four righthanders into automatic outs, and rely on Ichiro and Ibanez to provide all the offense.
Safeco is absolutely death to right-handed hitters. This isn’t a one year fluke. It’s almost certainly the hardest park in baseball for a right-handed power hitter to ply his trade.
The M’s seriously need to consider adjusting dimensions of Safeco Field. With the way its currently configured, the team stands a huge risk of every RH hitter they acquire failing to live up to their potential while playing for the team, simply due to the nature of their home park. Over 60% of all major league hitters swing from the right-side. And because of how Safeco plays, most of them have to be eliminated from consideration for employment by the Mariners, because there’s little to no chance that they’ll perform at a level commensurate with their salary while playing in Seattle.
It also creates the problem of the raw statistics hiding the true talent level of a player. The team, the fans, and the media often lament the team’s lack of offense and credit the solid pitching for keeping the M’s in contention this year. Except that is just wrong. The offense is the strength of this team. The pitching rotation has been absolutely abysmal away from Safeco Field, but their overall numbers are significantly aided by the effects of their home park.
As such, the Mariners run the risk of mis-evaluating the talent on hand, eliminating good hitters (Mike Cameron, anyone?) and acquiring or re-signing lousy pitchers (too many to name).
You can still have Safeco be a pitcher’s park without it destroying almost all right-handed hitters. Push the RF fence back, create a bit more foul territory, and for God’s sake, bring in the fences in left-center. The ballpark is putting an undo burden on the front office to find players who can succeed in this park. Even things out, and give them more guys to choose from.
Game 90, Mariners at Blue Jays
RHP Meche v RHP Janssen. 4:05, KSTW-11.
Every year, I ride the Seattle-to-Portland. I do it in one day, which requires a particular kind of conditioning and also a lot of stubbornness. When I’m riding during the summer, I’ll knock off a good century once a week, usually much harder per mile than the ride I’ll be doing in (oh man, is it really only) twelve hours. But there’s a big difference in doing that and spending the day on the bike, in finding the strength to charge up some monster hill at mile 150, when you’ve been out in the sun riding all day.
During the ride, there are parts of it that are beautiful and enjoyable, rolling hills and winding roads, and there are long stretches on the shoulders of highways with nothing to look at, along strip malls with no shade or respite, and the only way to keep going is to think about getting out of there.
It reminds me of being a baseball fan. I start out every season guardedly hopeful, knowing the worst-case scenario, and then for 162 games, more if you’re lucky, you keep at it. There are almost always painful stretches, like May, and there are pleasant surprises, like June.
But moreover, one of the reasons I go on the big rides is because once in a while, it’s good to be with ten thousand other bikers. Most of the time, we’re scattered across the region, maybe in small packs if we’re lucky. But for one day, particularly on this, the biggest ride of the northwest, to know that for all the solo time in the saddle, there are many, many more people of the same stripe, and they’re generally cool people, pleasant to hang out with even on an all-day ride.
I feel the same way about Mariner fandom. And even if our readership mirrors our author group and a quarter goes riding tomorrow, far more people will stop by USSM than ride the Seattle to Portland. Now that is cool.
So what’s up, folks? Gil Meche is our new ace. Adam Jones is our new centerfielder, for better or worse. Pineiro is the new Meche. We’re in contention for the AL West title. Our DH is the worst hitter on the team. The two highest-paid players are two of the worst-performing, while a set of guys under a million each are on fire.
This has been a fun trip so far. To a fine second half. Lineup when it’s available.
Dobbs, Jones up, Choo, Oliveros down
In addition to the Jones move we told you about yesterday, the M’s have also swapped out Shin-Soo Choo for Greg Dobbs.
Basically, they’re not ready to kick Everett to the curb quite yet, so Dobbs gets the Petagine role of sitting on the bench and never playing, instead of Choo or Snelling. When seen through that perspective, it’s hard to argue with.
But man, they need to get rid of Everett already.
Ichiro’s tree comments
I haven’t posted this because I really don’t know what to say. I still think it’s 50-50 whether Ichiro’s putting one over on the reporter in his recent comments on the team.
The part that’s caused all the head scratching is this bit:
“If there is a problem, we need to notice what creates the problem,” Ichiro said in Japanese, through his translator. “The problem usually isn’t just on the cover. You need to look much deeper. For example, if we’re talking about a tree and the tree has a problem, you need to look at the root. But you cannot see the root. The mistake is to keep watering the fruit. That’s not going to solve anything.”
Folks, I honestly have no idea what he’s trying to point to as the root cause. I’d guess management, but then that’s not really the root of a tree, is it — that’s the organization. Is it the city? Is it us?
Ichiro, if it’s us, we can change. Let’s talk.
Thiel’s about it for reading today
“This season not worth sacrificing future for”
He argues that in Reed’s abscence, centerfield could be Ichiro, with Doyle playing right.
Unless Carl Everett catches fire in the second half, the designated hitter/left field role could be rotated among Ibanez, Shin-soo Choo, Mike Morse and even prized youngster Adam Jones.
That’s… an odd rotation. But okay.
Adam Jones to the Majors
Ladies and Gentleman, your new starting centerfielder, Adam Jones.
The Mariners have been hyper-aggressive with promoting their prospects this year. There isn’t another club in the majors who is moving their young players through the system as quickly as the Mariners are. This move is a continuation of that philosophy – as soon as a player has shown that he is no longer struggling at a level, he is challenged with a promotion.
Adam Jones, for the last 6 weeks, has shown that he is no longer struggling at Triple-A. His splits by month:
April: .268/.286/.512, 82 AB, 22 H, 3 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 1 BB, 20 K
May: .208/.263/.368, 106 AB, 22 H, 4 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 8 BB, 23 K
June: .342/.405/.482, 114 AB, 39 H, 7 2B, 3 HR, 11 BB, 23 K
July: .308/.419/.692, 26 AB, 8 H, 1 2B, 3 HR, 5 BB, 1 K
The improvement the last six weeks jumps off the page. It’s most obvious in BB/K ratio, but it shows up across the board. He was striking out in nearly out of every four at-bats to start the year but cut that to one in six last month. His one strikeout in 26 at-bats so far in July, while a tiny sample, is pretty amazing, and a pretty blatant display of improvement.
For the last 140 at-bats, Adam Jones has been a monster in Triple-A. If that performance reflects his new true talent level, than he’s ready for the majors, and he could come up and be this year’s Jeff Francoeur.
However, there’s no way to know if that 140 at-bat sample is reflective of his current abilities with the bat. Scouts can help us, we can take some guesses, and we can hope, but in a sample that small, anyone can hit extremely well. Drawing any kind of firm conclusion from 140 at-bats that goes directly counter to the proceding 180 at-bats is unwise.
We can hope that Adam Jones turned a corner at the beginning of June, and this isn’t just a hot streak. Positive scouting reports are certainly encouraging, and the fact that he cleary has significant talent is also in his favor. But no one, not Bill Bavasi, not you or I, actually knows if Adam Jones has permanently implemented the things that have caused his run since June 1st into his repertoire, or if they’re going to dissipate the moment he sees a major league curveball.
From everyone I’ve talked to, Adam Jones has been killing fastballs in Triple-A, but still struggles mightily with anything offspeed. He’s done much better at no longer chasing that pitch, because he’s learning he can wait for something better, but he has not yet learned how to actually hit the pitch with any regularity. If he starts seeing a steady diet of breaking balls in the strike zone, he could be in trouble, because his current approach of crush-fastballs-and-lay-off-breaking-balls is rendered moot.
There’s also the matter of defense. He’s been playing center field for less than a year. While he has all kinds of physical skills, he’s still a raw defender. He still makes poor reads at times, gets bad jumps on balls, and runs inefficient routes to the ball. His athleticism will help him become a good defender in time, but he’s not there yet.
Almost every player with Jones’ skillset who has been called up to the majors has struggled, sometimes for several years. It is rare for a player with Jones’ offensive skillset to come up and dominate immediately. It’s certainly possible, as Jeff Francoeur showed last year, but Francoeur hasn’t been able to sustain his success from last year, and just like ’05 Francoeur is a possibility, so is ’06 Francoeur.
Adam Jones could be the answer in center field. It’s possible. But it’s also quite possible that he spends the first three months of his major league career getting intimidated by Safeco Field, staring at major league breaking balls for strike three, and having his confidence beaten down by an early promotion. The club could have left him in Tacoma, let him continue to learn and develop against Triple-A pitching with little pressure, and evaluated him in a context where he was playing against his peers.
Now? He’s been thrust into the middle of a pennant race and asked to learn to hit major league pitching in one of the toughest major league parks for a right-handed hitter in baseball. The M’s love to challenge their prospects – they just may have challenged Adam Jones too quickly for his sake, and for the team’s sake.
He’s a heck of a talent. But he wouldn’t be the first talent who fell on his face due to being promoted too quickly.