Gil Meche Revisited Yet Again
I know I wrote about this three weeks ago, but I feel compelled to once again talk about everyone’s favorite subject, Gil Meche, who has created a divide of opinions wider than the physique of Emiliano Fruto. Meche has been labeled a lot of things during the first four months of the season; a bum, a guy who turned the corner, an ace, prime trade bait, and most recently, a bum again. Consistency has not been Meche’s forte. After getting torched again last night, his July ERA ended at 5.67, the worst of any month so far.
So, once again, we’re forced to look at Meche and try to figure out what to expect the last two months of 2006. If this team is going to make a run at the AL West, we need Good Gil Meche to show up a lot more often than Crappy Gil Meche. I’ve given up hope that Crappy Gil Meche has been evicted; at this point, it’s obvious that he’s going to show up often enough to frustrate us all, but we just have to hope that Good Gil Meche shows up more often.
So, if we looked at Meche’s months by ERA, we’d see the following: 4.78, 4.93, 1.60, 5.67. June looks like a pretty big outlier, doesn’t it? June was clearly a fluke, and he reverted to form in July, or so the analysis would go.
Except its not true, and this is yet another reason why using ERA to try to predict future performance is futile. Let’s take a look at Meche’s rate stats, by month:
Month BB% K% GB% FB% LD% HR/FB FIP xFIP April 11% 17% 39% 39% 22% 13% 5.27 5.03 May 11% 21% 46% 40% 14% 12% 4.70 4.60 June 7% 19% 44% 43% 14% 5% 3.32 4.30 July 9% 23% 38% 42% 20% 15% 4.74 4.07
In April, he was the same lousy pitcher we’ve seen for years. In May, he started missing more bats, which helped make him just mediocre instead of crappy. In June, the command improved significantly and he was helped by an unsustainable home run rate. In July (or more accurately, his last two starts), his command regressed and the home run rate went to the other end of the spectrum, but despite the high ERA, it was still obviously his second best month of the year, significantly better than April or May. From a predictive standpoint, you could argue that it was even better than June, because his strikeout rate increased more drastically than his walk rate did, and the 15% HR/FB rate isn’t going to continue any more so than the 5% did in June.
Yes, Gil Meche was pretty terrible last night. But when evaluating what kind of Gil Meche we’re likely to see in August and September, the last month should make you more optimistic, not less so, and there’s no reason to be piling off the bandwagon right now.
I’ll repeat what I said three weeks ago; Gil Meche is clearly not an ace or any kind of frontline pitcher, I don’t want to give him a mulitiyear contract in the offseason, but I’m also glad they didn’t trade him, because the 8% BB/20% K flyball pitcher in Safeco Field is an effective starter who can help this team try to win the division. He’s going to give up some home runs, but that’s just part of the package.
If we see Gil Meche for what is right now, and not what we want him to be or what he used to be, we’ll realize that we have a #4 starter who is having the best run of his career in the year we need it the most. Not trading Gil Meche was the right move, just like letting him walk at the end of the year will be the right move. And last night’s suckfest doesn’t change any of that.
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But Dave, didn’t Ron Fairly say last night that Meche pitched well enough to win??
No arguments from here (for a change). I might add that Meche seems highly susceptible to getting knocked out his comfort zone. In his previous (to last night’s) start, I recalled reading that Meche believed he was feeling better on the mound than at any point in his career. He promptly tanks it. Last night, he wore long sleeves to keep the sweat off the ball, and promptly tanks it.
So, maybe Good Meche shows up when he doesn’t rationalize his own hype, or when it isn’t 90+ with 200% humidity. The solution is for Meche to stay grounded by reading USSM, and to play most of his games in Seattle….
He seems to be frustrated with both catchers and vice versa over his last approx. three starts. Anybody else notice this or have any insight? He did appear to be more comfortable but getting distracted again…
I might add that Meche seems highly susceptible to getting knocked out his comfort zone.
Yep. He’s definitely not the most mentally tough pitcher you’ll ever see. But, beyond that, his problems are compounded when he doesn’t throw strikes.
His outpitch lately has been his curve, which he’s getting a lot of bend on, and is freezing hitters in strikeout situations. That’s been a big key for him. But he just doesn’t throw it when he’s behind in the count. Inside Edge has him at 7% curveballs when behind in the count, which is just a really, really low total. Even Felix, who we’ve noted throws too many fastballs in fastball situations, throws his curve 11% of the time when he’s behind in the count.
So if Meche struggles to throw strikes, not only is he raising his pitch count and putting runners on base, but he’s also essentially eliminating his best weapon from his arsenal. Then he becomes a fastball pitcher, and as we’ve his seen, Meche’s fastball just isn’t good enough to get by hitters when they’re looking for it.
Basically, for Gil Meche, he has to throw strikes with his fastball early in the count to succeed. If he’s missing, he’s screwed.
Nice analysis, as usual Dave. I assume that he will be a type “A” free agent at the end of the season. Is this correct? Let’s hope that the M’s offer him arbitration and then let him walk. What are the chances that Meche takes the one year of arbitration rather than a multiyear contract he might receive elsewhere? What are the chances the Mariners are stupid enough to offer him a multiyear deal?
Do you think that he could command more than two years? He still is young-ish, but hasn’t shown any sustained health or consistency at the major league level. Of course, neither has a number of other free agents who hit the free agent market in recent years (e.g. Jaret Wright).
getting torched last night? suckfest? I mean, he wasn’t great, but a 5 6 3 3 3 6 line doesn’t seem to merit the descriptors you’re tossing out there. If you take out the homeruns (which I know, you could make a similar argument about any mediocre pitching line) it is actually pretty tasty. The O’s were sitting dead red from the get-go and Meche adjusted, giving (yes) his team a chance to come back and falling just 1 inning short of a quality start. So the hyperbole seems misplaced.
The question for me is, what kind of contract will Meche get on the open market? I’d be happy to have him back for 3/15, but will someone throw a 5/50 his way? I have no idea.
I assume that he will be a type “A” free agent at the end of the season.
Depends on how he finishes the year, but yea, probably. At worst, he’s a Type B, which would net the M’s one first round pick instead of two.
What are the chances that Meche takes the one year of arbitration rather than a multiyear contract he might receive elsewhere?
Almost zero. In arbitration, he’s likely to get $8-9 million. He’ll get more than that guaranteed in a multiyear deal.
What are the chances the Mariners are stupid enough to offer him a multiyear deal?
If they offer a multiyear deal, I don’t see it being fully guaranteed. They’ve been frustrated by him for years, and there are other pitchers they’re going to want to pursue. I’d imagine that any multiyear offer they make will be filled with option years and incentive clauses.
Do you think that he could command more than two years?
Yea. He’ll get three, I think. The pitching market is pretty weak this year, so he’ll be at the top of the list, wit Ted Lilly, for everyone who wants to avoid the Schmidt/Zito bidding wars. Because he’s only going to be 28, he’ll command enough offers to get 3 years.
6. I don’t think he will get what Washburn got last year, although it was a terrible contract given by the M’s. But given the state of the lack of starting pitching in MLB, I wouldn’t be surprised someone throw 3/27 at him. He’s probably going to get more than Jared Wright got, not that his season is better than Jared Wright’s last season with the Braves, but because the market for SP has gone up. If Wright got 3/21 from the Yankees and Loaiza got 3/21.5 from the A’s, then a 27 yo Gil Meche will get at least 3/24 from someone. Hopefully, it’s not the M’s giving him that.
Getting torched last night? suckfest? I mean, he wasn’t great, but a 5 6 3 3 3 6 line doesn’t seem to merit the descriptors you’re tossing out there.
9 of the 23 men he faced reached base (.391 OBP allowed), and he gave up two home runs. Almost any other time you put 39% of the opposing batters on base and give up two longballs in five innings, you’re going to give up a lot of runs. He got bailed out by the fact that both homers were solo shots and he stranded a lot of runners. But he didn’t come close to pitching well, despite the strikeouts.
I wonder if the pitch selection has anything to do with Meche’s exchange with Johjima. Maybe Meche really believes his fastball is good enough by itself (and calls off off-speed pitches when he is behind). I have presented the argument that Meche’s stuff is better than some other’s believe. But if Meche believes his fastball is his “out pitch”, he is in big trouble. The analysis presented previously for Felix and Putz is a case in point. When they (with undisputably better fastballs than Meche) pitch fastballs more often than not, they give up runs more often than not.
So here’s to Gil Meche finishing strong. The entire Meche debacle could end quite happily – he helps pitch us to a division title, qualifies as a Type A free agent, signs elsewhere for big money (and, as a labrum survivor, I root for him in spite of himself), and we get back two great draft picks. The only way to improve that picture, is to have him sign for big money with a division rival, where upon he turns into a Jaret Wright like pumpkin. Unfortunately, I don’t see Texas, LAA, or Oakland as a likely suitor.
Jamie Moyer throws 32% changeups when he’s behind in the count, and only 50% fastballs. Felix and Meche both throw their fastballs 65-70% of the time when they’re behind in the count.
You’d think they’d learn. Obviously, their fastballs are better than Moyer’s, but when a hitter is looking fastball, and you throw him one, don’t be surprised when they’re trotting around the bases.
#7– really? I thought he was designated a “C” in the 2004-2005 list. Here is the “A” list released in Nov. 2005…
He really has looked dreadful for most of the past two seasons. A blind man passing the game on a galloping horse would have questioned the judges’ decision if he’d been anything other than a ‘C’
#7– really? I thought he was designated a “C” in the 2004-2005 list. Here is the “A” list released in Nov. 2005…
The formula uses innings, ERA, and strikeouts for starting pitchers. Thanks to his home park, he’s going to have pretty good rankings in all three categories this year, and his ERA wasn’t disaster terrible last year.
Look at the guys at the end of that list. When you average out Meche’s IP/ERA/K, you’re going to see something that comes darn close to ‘04-’05 Ted Lilly, and probably a bit better than ‘04-’05 Arroyo or Maroth. He’ll either be one of the last few guys classified as an A, or one of the top guys in the B class. We’ll just have to wait and see how he finishes out the year.
So we want him to finish strong for multiple reasons- pennant and “A” designation.
BTW even though the M’s will probably lose a draft pick if they go for a guy like Schmidt, they will actually get an extra one out of the deal if Meche is designated an “A” and he leaves (lose their pick but pick up one for Meche PLUS a sandwich pick). The system is a little goofy but it is better for the farm system to lose your guy and pick up an equivalent or upgrade from someone else. MLB at its finest!
If they offer a multiyear deal, I don’t see it being fully guaranteed. They’ve been frustrated by him for years, and there are other pitchers they’re going to want to pursue. I’d imagine that any multiyear offer they make will be filled with option years and incentive clauses.
I could live with that as an offer.
I also don’t see him getting what Washburn got, either. GMs pay in this league based on past performance, on shiny ERAs, shiny W-L records and 200 IP seasons, and Washburn has more to his credit than Gil has.
The best comp to what Gil is would be Jaret Wright, IMO, and while the Yankees did pay 21/3 years for him, it’s the Yankees, who are perfectly happy to blow cash out their nether regions. IIRC, we offered Wright 15/3 years. I suspect Meche comes in somewhere between that and Loaiza at 3/21- and it might even be an incentive/option year deal, considering how many GMs got burned this offseason.
In essence, no matter what his past has dictated, we need this guy down the stretch. If he finishes strong and solidifies himself as a class ‘A’ guy, which should not be hard judging by some of the names on last years list, then we get two solid pciks, and it makes losing our own first or second rounder, alot easier to swallow if we sign Schmidt.
Also, by solidfying himself as a Class ‘A’ guy mean he more than likely has done a splendid job for us down the stretch, and put us in a better position to win.
Just to throw it out there, what do you all think Schmidt gets this off-season. I’d imagine going to 3 -4 years would be pushing it. He’ll be 34 on opening day next year, but his talent obviously is not in question. All signs point to the M’s pursuing this guy heavily in the offseason, but he makes $10.5 mil right now. Once the bidding gets started 15 -16 is not out of the question. What are everyones thoughts on this??
I don’t see how Schmidt coudl get much more than 3/35 million with either an option 4th year or one that vests with innings pitched.
wow, that would make his first “A” ranking the year he goes out on the market….
1999-00
47 Meche, Gil 49.457 B
2000-01
No Compensation
60. Gil Meche 39.194
2001-03
not on the list
2003-04
40. Gil Meche 54.167 B
2004-05
51. Gil Meche 47.130 C
My problem with Meche is that he so often just falls apart completely in games. You almost never see him settle into a groove after being shaky early, instead he just gets to a point where he loses everything and you have to get him out. The mental toughness is probably a big part of that.
Also, can anyone tell me what’s going on with Dave Niehaus right now? I don’t live in the area so I can’t listen to games but I was listening to KJR online and they did a little commercial hoping that he would get well soon and come back. I wasn’t even aware he was gone.
Dave, what you’ve said about Meche’s curve (his best/out pitch) and when he does/does not throw it (not much when behind) mirror what Jeff at Lookout Landing said pretty closely.
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/story/2006/8/1/01431/93612
Jeff also observes that when Meche misses with his curve, it is usually up or down, and speculates that this is a release point issue. The implication (as I read it) was that this was something both common and fixable.
Question: do you also agree with Jeff that, if Meche ever learns to command his curve, he’s “a legitimate #2″ rather than “a #4 who occasionally looks like better”? Do you disagree with the assessment (mine really, not Jeff’s) that learning to command that curve is achievable near-term (say, within the next couple of seasons)? And finally, especially given Meche’s seemingly fragile make-up, would he have the confidence to use that curve properly once he can command it?
Jeff also observes that when Meche misses with his curve, it is usually up or down, and speculates that this is a release point issue. The implication (as I read it) was that this was something both common and fixable.
Jeff is a smart guy.
Question: do you also agree with Jeff that, if Meche ever learns to command his curve, he’s “a legitimate #2″ rather than “a #4 who occasionally looks like better”?
I think commanding the curve would be part of it but not all of it. He doesn’t exactly command his fastball well either, which would still be a problem. So, no, I won’t agree that curveball command equals Meche as a #2 starter.
Do you disagree with the assessment (mine really, not Jeff’s) that learning to command that curve is achievable near-term (say, within the next couple of seasons)?
Achievable, as in likely? No. As in possible? Sure. Anything’s possible. Darryl Kile finally started commanding his pitches and went from mid-range guy to legit all-star. It can happen. But I wouldn’t bet on it.
And finally, especially given Meche’s seemingly fragile make-up, would he have the confidence to use that curve properly once he can command it?
Who knows. Meche has never struck me as a particularly smart pitcher, so for him to become one would be a shock to my system.
Also, let’s keep in mind that Safeco makes him look a lot better. He’s been significantly better at home than on the road this year, and it’s totally up in the air to how well he’d perform in a neutral park.
I don’t personally see Meche ever becoming a #2 starter. I think this is probably his career year.
OK, so the HR/FB rate tripled (as did the raw numbers) but it’s only going from 2 HRs to 6. What really sticks out to me is that the LD% went up from 14% to 20%, and the liners have a much higher rate of turning into hits.
Now, I’m just doing a little back-of-the-envelope figuring here, but it looks like Meche gave up about 19 LDs in July, and 13 in June. If all 6 extra LDs went for hits, and you add in the 4 extra HRs, you get the 10 hit difference between June and July.
Anybody know how to stop giving up so many LDs?
For the most part, line drives allowed are random among major league quality pitchers.
In a vacuum, I would sign Meche to a deal if it’s 3 years and less than 20M.
speaking of once and future Mariner pitchers, Nageotte returns from the DL in today’s Rainiers game, currently in pre-game …
25: For the most part, line drives allowed are random among major league quality pitchers.
Or, to put it differently. Line drive percentage is a combination of: 1) luck (sometimes a batter nails a pitch and sometimes he doesn’t); and 2) skill (when a guy is a bad pitcher he throws a lot more pitches that guys are likely to smack).
To be a major league pitcher, you have to be skilled sufficiently in the second area so that your results are dominated by the first element, luck. Pitchers for whom that is not the case don’t stay in MLB.
While there are undoubtedly differences among successful big league pitchers in the second area, the variations are so small as to be largely obscured by the pure randonmness of the luck component.
Right, what Steve said.
However, I believe that a high LD% can be an indicator that a guy just isn’t a major league quality pitcher. Julio Mateo’s LD% is 26.5%. When you look at that in combination with his high walk rate, low strikeout rate, and absurdly low groundball rate, it all paints a picture of a guy who just lacks the stuff to fool major league hitters consistently.
Maybe the new arm slot will help him. If it doesn’t, he’ll be out of baseball shortly.
How did Mateo go from pretty good reliever to scary as hell?
In a relatively short time span as well.
How did Mateo go from pretty good reliever to scary as hell?
He hasn’t been a pretty good reliever for a few years. The declining strikeout rate was a big indicator that his stuff was disappearing and that he was living on borrowed time. When the M’s gave him that two year deal in the offseason, we were all against it, warning that he could easily collapse.
Maybe this is so basic as to be a laughable question but what the hell, I’ve spent most of my life being laughed at for one reason or another.
When you’re paying a guy millions to pitch for you (Meche) and when you’re paying other guys more millions to manage and coach him (Grover and the crew), why the hell can’t you just *tell* him which pitches to throw for awhile, if his pitch selection is that bad? Or is pitch selection like a stripper’s freedom to pick out her outfit — integral to the art?
I know I sound like Ronny or Dave, but the thing that has impressed me most about Mark Lowe is the fact that wherever Johjima’s glove is, that’s where the ball goes. Watching Meche last night, it was obvious he was missing his spots all over the place. I can’t remember in the first three innings that he hit his spot with his fastball, only fooling hitters with his curve ball. It could be attributed to the awful weather, but it seems more likely that his control isn’t that good. Further, I don’t remember seeing Lowe ever shake off a sign from Johjima whereas Meche has obviously had problems with Joh’s pitch calling. Lowe has better stuff than Meche, but maybe Meche should follow the rook’s lead and let Johjima call the game?
Dave (#23):
Thanks — that’s pretty much my own assessment, as well, though I am *somewhat* less pessimistic than you are about Meche’s ability to command his curve (and his fastball) better over the next couple of seasons. I wouldn’t say “likely” but I would say he has a 1-in-3 or so shot of doing so (to pull a number out of my ass). I am less confident that he will develop the mental make-up to put that to use, but hopefully with age comes maturity.
I posed these questions because I think they are critical to whether you offer Meche arbitration or not, and what kind of contract you offer. If the FO doesn’t have at least some basis for an opinion one way or the other on those questions, they really should cut bait with Gil next offseason and be done with him.
Or is pitch selection like a stripper’s freedom to pick out her outfit — integral to the art?
I just thought this was an awesome way to phrase your question.
I’m certainly no expert on these types of situations, but it might just be that Meche/Chaves/Johjima/etc. might not have confidence that Meche can throw the curve for strikes. Dave apparently has some Inside Edge data, so I’d be interested to see what Meche’s strike percentage on curveballs is, but I guess the real worry in throwing the curve when behind in the count is that you wind up even further behind in the count, or you wind up walking guys. Meche’s walk rate is definitely down this year, so I’d also be curious if the data suggested that throwing the fastball more when behind in the count had anything to do with it.
And I guess on a personal level, there’s only so much you really want to push a pitcher around. Would throwing more curves when behind in the count probably help Meche? Sure. Is it worth completely messing with his apparently already messed up head? I don’t know. It sucks that some guys can be such prima donnas, but sometimes I think you have to sort of put up with a little bit of it in order to keep them from melting down. It does, after all, take quite a bit of concentration to be able to go out there and try to repeat your motion over and over again in just the right way.
If the FO doesn’t have at least some basis for an opinion one way or the other on those questions, they really should cut bait with Gil next offseason and be done with him.
I’m also guessing the FO has better insight into Gil and Jamie than, say, Ted Lilly or Random Mid-Rotation Free Agent Filler, which is why I think there’s a legit argument to resign them. Yeah, they’ve botched their share of decisions, but there have also been times where they’ve made the right call-Meche coming back over Jason Johnson as a FA, Ibañez’s initial signing. We’re not going to get them all right as armchair GMs any more than Bavasi is.
Agreed, EC. I think it is a tough call, and Meche has gone from being barely a #5 to a borderline #3/#4. Maybe MOR guys like that don’t deserve the money he’ll make – or maybe not – but the M’s paid that kind of money to a similar guy (Washburn), and I would argue they did it with their eyes more open than they are usually given credit for. If so, there is more reason to keep Meche than otherwise.
Still, if they don’t think Gil can develop better command, or don’t know, I still say they should do nothing more with him than fish for FA compensation.
I think it’s pertinent that folks (well, mostly in the front office, but fans as well) see Meche for what he is, not what he was, and to see him in context.
Team’s gotta fill three holes in the rotation next year. I think it would be foolish to count on converted relievers AND a minor leaguer for two of them. Seems to me that you need to sign two free agents. And what’s out there is mightly slim pickings…..
IF you figure Moyer is one, I guess Schmidt or Matsuzaka could be the other, which means you can kiss Meche goodbye, but I’d also argue the risk that Jamie falls off of a cliff in 2007 is at least as high as the one that Gil falls off of a cliff. Jamie’s pitching at an age where EVERYBODY starts falling off the cliff- Hall of Famers, you name it.
Now, granted, Jamie’s only going to be on a one-year deal at maybe 5-7 million in 2007, at which point you turn around and try someone else, or someone’s come up through the minors, or whatever, so in that sense he represents less downside risk because you have flexibility- but the counter to that is that Moyer’s hometown discount doesn’t apply to anyone else, so his replacement if he goes pfft almost certainly is NOT going to be a guy happy to take a deal for a year and 5-7 million, and a handshake deal/wink and nod that he gets to retire a Mariner.
Basically, Meche might be Ted Lilly- but younger and less likely to cash in on past performance. THAT might be the reason to sign the guy. (That being said, if I could get Lilly for cheaper or even comparable cost, I’d likely take Lilly- might even take him at a premium).
EC, I know you’ve made this argument before, but I still don’t understand why you think we have to have a #4 starter making $8 million?
The free agent market isn’t the only way to acquire pitching. If your options are Meche at 3/24, Lilly at 3/27, or Mulder at 1/8 or something, you aren’t obligated to sign any of them just because you have a hole in your rotation.
Make a trade. Stockpile Cruceta like guys to come in and compete for the fifth spot in the rotation. Whatever. Do something else.
If the market for free agent pitchers is overheated (and it is), then you get involved in other markets.
and there is no quarantee that Matsuzaka comes here, if the Yankees are going to be involved, as is the story in the NY tabs…
I don’t think Meche will make 8 million in a year, simply put (unless it’s a deal with loads of incentives that he hits). He doesn’t have a resume as good as guys who HAVE gotten 8 million a year. You do. Guess we’ll see who’s right- it wouldn’t stun me to see the market overpay. I don’t think I sign him at 3/24.
I also have a BIT higher take on Meche than you do. He’s maybe about to have a 2-3 year stretch of being Matt Clement at a comparable age- not awesome, but serviceable in mid-rotation (in a 3/4 range of a good rotation instead of 4/5). If you get him cheaper than you would have paid for Matt Clement in 2005 (which I think you might), it’s a reasonable deal- right?
But I’ll happily concede, if there are cheaper options, then for God’s sake, take them. Like I said, Felix + Schmidt or Matsuzaka + Washburn + Moyer + Wheel of Random Pitching Options (offseason NRIs to veterans, minor league flyers, etc.) is one way to go that I think is perfectly defensible, and if the M’s $s only go so far….yeah, get the better pitcher for the top of the rotation instead of stocking up on Washburns and Meches. It just carries it’s own unique flavor of risk (I’ve already gone into Moyer, but Schmidt’s peripherals are starting to slide a bit, for instance).
The problem is that the best way to augment the rotation without overpaying is to grow your own- and outside of Felix, we don’t have a decent candidate for anything other than a 5. Feierabend/Blackley/Oldham/Livingston strike me as being part of the John Halama/Jamie Moyer spectrum (LH finesse flyball P), and we all know odds are much higher you get Halama than Moyer, Baek is Ryan Franklin with a Korean accent, and Cruceta’s OK (the guy I’m highest on, actually), but not striking me as ready to come in and chip in what Meche has done so far in 2006.
You need to re-evaluate Feierabend. We had this discussion like four threads ago. He’s not the soft tossing lefty who can’t top 88 that the rest of them are.
Dave, do you think Feierabend has a shot at making the rotation next year out of Spring Training or does he start the year in Tacoma?
Aside from Cruceta who do you think has a shot as an internal option?
I know, he hits low-90s. OK, so that’s Jarrod Washburn, if he pans out in the best case scenario- some fastball, lefty, extreme FB pitcher, still falls on the finesse side as opposed to “here’s some cheese, hit it if you can”. (I think I said this in that thread, but I’d REALLY kill for some GB-prone lefties in our minors. Maybe Raffy needs to work on 2-seam sinkers with our 762 finesse lefties this offseason and spring.)
I’d be happy to take a flyer on him as part of a Cheap Pitcher Extravaganza for #5.
With the way the M’s push their kids, he could certainly get a shot. I think I’d rather have him start the year in Tacoma and earn a promotion by pitching well, but the M’s and I differ on philosophy there.
Cruceta, Feierabend, and O’Flaherty (there’s been some talk of moving him back to the rotation) are the best options in the high minors. Morrow, if he can get some innings this fall, could show up in the second half of next year in a best case scenario.
You’re underselling him, EC. You just need to reevaluate your position on him as a talent. He’s not a finesse pitcher, no matter how many times you say he is.
Oops.
According to rotoworld Jose Cruz has just been DFAed. He’d be a decent CFer for the next few months.
How cheap could he be had now or would it be necessary to wait out the 10 days to get him? Or compared to Jones, would Cruz even be desirable?
EC – thanks for the link to the old thread, good times.
Someone with minor league stats where they are K’ing 7-8 a game in the minors isn’t a power pitcher, since they are likely to lose some oomph. Case in point: Jarrod Washburn (7.35 K/9 IP in the minors).
I think I’d be THRILLED to get 75-57, 3.93 ERA over about 1150 IP from Feierabend before we let him walk as a free agent to get his deluxe-sized contract. You seriously think he’s going to outdo that?
Assuming the cost is negligible – pick up Cruz, send down Dobbs, and your bench is much more flexible…
50
We could be out of the race in 10 days– or we could have a 3 game lead in the division.
Jones has a sub .600 OPS, and is still learning to play the OF.
Cruz can get on base at a .340-.350 clip, which is important for a player who hits in front of Ichiro. Also, he could play CF without killing the team, and cut back on SuperWillie’s playing time. (I’m not sure whether his D is adequate or slightly sub-par).
Oops, my bad- Jarrod’s K/9 IP in the minors is 7.56. Feierabend walks less guys, though.
I still say if Feierabend give you what Jarrod Washburn gave the Angels before he came here, I’d be pretty happy. Not that I’d object if he turned into, say, Mark Buehrle, but Buehrle improved his G/F ratio in the majors.
#53 – I agree that Cruz would be a good be a nice pick-up at the right price, but I would rather see Jones go back to Tacoma to develop if we picked up Cruz, rather than sending Dobbs down (who is as “developed” as he will get IMO).
Amazing. I’ve learned how to write posts that sound like Porky Pig. That’s what I get for posting while trying to get a ton of work cleared off my desk at the same time.
But I still think if we picked up Cruz, that Jones should be sent back down to continue to develop.
Feierabend is 20, in Double-A, and K’ing 9.0/G over his last 6 weeks. Washburn’s K/9 in the high minors, at more advanced ages, was much lower.
Feierabend has better stuff, misses bats, and just isn’t a finesse guy. I’m guessing you missed the post I did at the end of the last thread we had this conversation on.
Where/how did you get the monthly splits for the rate stats?
You can get them at http://www.minorleageusplits.com.
Thanks Dave-thats a great site and a new bookmark. I know this isn’t an enlightened question but I was referring to the original breakdown on Meche-i’ve seen THT stats but I can only find season-to-date summaries.
On another note, you guys really should charge for access to this site-I’ve learned less in college lectures
Oh, the Meche data I got by going to his game log on fangraphs.com, then dumping it into excel and running the calculations myself.
What’s a good Safeco pitcher? I’d think being a lefty who doesn’t walk people is the gneeral prototype, with everything else being gravy.
#62: thanks
Since people are talking about having Moyer back next year, I’d be interested in seeing this kind of analysis done on him. It doesn’t seem to me like a guy who walks 2.5 people per 9 innings and only strikes out 4.6 is doing anything all that special. Last year his ground ball to flyball ratio was .87, but I don’t know what it is this year.
Ah, I see the comment.
Yeah, Chuck Finley is pretty high as well- that’s a guy who was top 10 in his league in K’s for 10 years.
(He also spent alomost NO time in the minors after being a draft-and-follow, so it’s impossible to compare minor league stats.)
Like I said, if he turns into a flyball version of Mark Buehrle, OK, then.
To remove Gil Meche from the roster, the Ms would need or would have needed to obtain a starter at least as good. No such pitcher was on the market, period; hence the interest in Meche by _other_ teams. To have any hope of contending this year, the Ms have to keep Meche, it’s that simple.
And he’s not pitching that badly, as Dave breaks down. Gil’s finally using his curve to finish off batters with Ks, together with his new slider. He’s getting a few more GBs than historically. By staying away from his fastball a bit more, which he can’t keep down or locate all that well generally, he’s cut his walk rate. He’s no star, but as long as he gets this level of Ks he can be a useful guy, especially in Safeco.
Not that he was the night I went last week and saw him against Toronto. That was the old Gil being Gil, who couldn’t finish off batters or innings (in part because the ump wouldn’t give him close calls since he was missing a lot the rest of the time), ran up a high pitch count, and gave up a bunch of screaming line drives when he got behind in the count. Even so, he got his share of Ks, and his slider is a nice little weapon, especially to LH batters; not a plus pitch, but something useful.
I’m no fan of signing Gil long term. He’s a great bet to land in the Park/Dreifort/Pavano/Jaret Wright group, a guy who after years of indifferent result, in some cases mixed with injury, pitches ‘decently’ or better in his walk year and gets a four year deal well above his career line. Whoever signs Gil in the offseason is likely to be very disappointed. So the Ms should let him go and take the draft pick.
Re: Meche falling apart in games, now some/much of this is certainly a lack of mental toughness, sure. However, in my view Gil just doesn’t have good enough control on most/all of his pitches, and that’s the real problem. He hits patches in games, and patches of games, where he’s either missing by more then 6 inches or putting the pitch in the fat part of the plate. When Gil gets behind or has his bad innings he doesn’t really have a go-to pitch he can command for a quality strike. That’s the problem, he has to keep throwing but his control gets shaky runs where he can’t make a quality pitch; I see this as a legacy of injury, or simply his career pattern, and I’m pessimistic that he’ll ever shake it. 2-3 years ago, I though differently, but Gil has clearly established that he can’t command the corners at all, or bet his fastball in a good part of the zone when in trouble.
The big difference this year is that his curve is good enough, and his slider new enough that he’s getting swings-and-misses in the zone. I suspect the issue with Gil going to too many fastballs when behind in the count is really that Meche knows he can’t reliably throw a quality strike if he’s behind in the count and that he’s decided that a ball in play is better than a walk. Given his history, I think he’s _not_ wrong there: he’s got to try his best to stay away from the big inning, and a solo HR isn’t something to get in a swivet over. Look at Moyer in that regard; a totally different pitching pattern, but still a willingness to give up solo shots as opposed to walks. None of this makes Gil any kind of ToR pitcher, but it may not be simple stupidity either. More like finding a way to succeed passably with stuff that isn’t as good as it looks at first.