Comments on: Gil Meche Revisited Yet Again http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/01/gil-meche-revisited-yet-again/ Seattle Mariners and general baseball discussion with David Cameron and Derek Zumsteg Sat, 21 Nov 2009 14:00:02 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: BelaXadux http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/01/gil-meche-revisited-yet-again/comment-page-2/#comment-131195 BelaXadux Thu, 03 Aug 2006 03:32:11 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/01/gil-meche-revisited-yet-again/#comment-131195 Re: Meche falling apart in games, now some/much of this is certainly a lack of mental toughness, sure. However, in my view Gil just doesn't have good enough control on most/all of his pitches, and that's the real problem. He hits patches in games, and patches of games, where he's either missing by more then 6 inches or putting the pitch in the fat part of the plate. When Gil gets behind or has his bad innings he doesn't really have a go-to pitch he can command for a quality strike. That's the problem, he has to keep throwing but his control gets shaky runs where he can't make a quality pitch; I see this as a legacy of injury, or simply his career pattern, and I'm pessimistic that he'll ever shake it. 2-3 years ago, I though differently, but Gil has clearly established that he can't command the corners at all, or bet his fastball in a good part of the zone when in trouble. The big difference this year is that his curve is good enough, and his slider new enough that he's getting swings-and-misses in the zone. I suspect the issue with Gil going to too many fastballs when behind in the count is really that Meche knows he can't reliably throw a quality strike if he's behind in the count and that he's decided that a ball in play is better than a walk. Given his history, I think he's _not_ wrong there: he's got to try his best to stay away from the big inning, and a solo HR isn't something to get in a swivet over. Look at Moyer in that regard; a totally different pitching pattern, but still a willingness to give up solo shots as opposed to walks. None of this makes Gil any kind of ToR pitcher, but it may not be simple stupidity either. More like finding a way to succeed passably with stuff that isn't as good as it looks at first. Re: Meche falling apart in games, now some/much of this is certainly a lack of mental toughness, sure. However, in my view Gil just doesn’t have good enough control on most/all of his pitches, and that’s the real problem. He hits patches in games, and patches of games, where he’s either missing by more then 6 inches or putting the pitch in the fat part of the plate. When Gil gets behind or has his bad innings he doesn’t really have a go-to pitch he can command for a quality strike. That’s the problem, he has to keep throwing but his control gets shaky runs where he can’t make a quality pitch; I see this as a legacy of injury, or simply his career pattern, and I’m pessimistic that he’ll ever shake it. 2-3 years ago, I though differently, but Gil has clearly established that he can’t command the corners at all, or bet his fastball in a good part of the zone when in trouble.

The big difference this year is that his curve is good enough, and his slider new enough that he’s getting swings-and-misses in the zone. I suspect the issue with Gil going to too many fastballs when behind in the count is really that Meche knows he can’t reliably throw a quality strike if he’s behind in the count and that he’s decided that a ball in play is better than a walk. Given his history, I think he’s _not_ wrong there: he’s got to try his best to stay away from the big inning, and a solo HR isn’t something to get in a swivet over. Look at Moyer in that regard; a totally different pitching pattern, but still a willingness to give up solo shots as opposed to walks. None of this makes Gil any kind of ToR pitcher, but it may not be simple stupidity either. More like finding a way to succeed passably with stuff that isn’t as good as it looks at first.

]]> By: BelaXadux http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/01/gil-meche-revisited-yet-again/comment-page-2/#comment-131194 BelaXadux Thu, 03 Aug 2006 02:58:37 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/01/gil-meche-revisited-yet-again/#comment-131194 To remove Gil Meche from the roster, the Ms would need or would have needed to obtain a starter at least as good. No such pitcher was on the market, period; hence the interest in Meche by _other_ teams. To have any hope of contending this year, the Ms have to keep Meche, it's that simple. And he's not pitching that badly, as Dave breaks down. Gil's finally using his curve to finish off batters with Ks, together with his new slider. He's getting a few more GBs than historically. By staying away from his fastball a bit more, which he can't keep down or locate all that well generally, he's cut his walk rate. He's no star, but as long as he gets this level of Ks he can be a useful guy, especially in Safeco. Not that he was the night I went last week and saw him against Toronto. That was the old Gil being Gil, who couldn't finish off batters or innings (in part because the ump wouldn't give him close calls since he was missing a lot the rest of the time), ran up a high pitch count, and gave up a bunch of screaming line drives when he got behind in the count. Even so, he got his share of Ks, and his slider is a nice little weapon, especially to LH batters; not a plus pitch, but something useful. I'm no fan of signing Gil long term. He's a great bet to land in the Park/Dreifort/Pavano/Jaret Wright group, a guy who after years of indifferent result, in some cases mixed with injury, pitches 'decently' or better in his walk year and gets a four year deal well above his career line. Whoever signs Gil in the offseason is likely to be very disappointed. So the Ms should let him go and take the draft pick. To remove Gil Meche from the roster, the Ms would need or would have needed to obtain a starter at least as good. No such pitcher was on the market, period; hence the interest in Meche by _other_ teams. To have any hope of contending this year, the Ms have to keep Meche, it’s that simple.

And he’s not pitching that badly, as Dave breaks down. Gil’s finally using his curve to finish off batters with Ks, together with his new slider. He’s getting a few more GBs than historically. By staying away from his fastball a bit more, which he can’t keep down or locate all that well generally, he’s cut his walk rate. He’s no star, but as long as he gets this level of Ks he can be a useful guy, especially in Safeco.

Not that he was the night I went last week and saw him against Toronto. That was the old Gil being Gil, who couldn’t finish off batters or innings (in part because the ump wouldn’t give him close calls since he was missing a lot the rest of the time), ran up a high pitch count, and gave up a bunch of screaming line drives when he got behind in the count. Even so, he got his share of Ks, and his slider is a nice little weapon, especially to LH batters; not a plus pitch, but something useful.

I’m no fan of signing Gil long term. He’s a great bet to land in the Park/Dreifort/Pavano/Jaret Wright group, a guy who after years of indifferent result, in some cases mixed with injury, pitches ‘decently’ or better in his walk year and gets a four year deal well above his career line. Whoever signs Gil in the offseason is likely to be very disappointed. So the Ms should let him go and take the draft pick.

]]> By: eponymous coward http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/01/gil-meche-revisited-yet-again/comment-page-2/#comment-130846 eponymous coward Wed, 02 Aug 2006 16:57:19 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/01/gil-meche-revisited-yet-again/#comment-130846 Ah, I see the comment. Yeah, Chuck Finley is pretty high as well- that's a guy who was top 10 in his league in K's for 10 years. (He also spent alomost NO time in the minors after being a draft-and-follow, so it's impossible to compare minor league stats.) Like I said, if he turns into a flyball version of Mark Buehrle, OK, then. Ah, I see the comment.

Yeah, Chuck Finley is pretty high as well- that’s a guy who was top 10 in his league in K’s for 10 years.

(He also spent alomost NO time in the minors after being a draft-and-follow, so it’s impossible to compare minor league stats.)

Like I said, if he turns into a flyball version of Mark Buehrle, OK, then.

]]> By: MickeyZ http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/01/gil-meche-revisited-yet-again/comment-page-2/#comment-130841 MickeyZ Wed, 02 Aug 2006 13:22:48 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/01/gil-meche-revisited-yet-again/#comment-130841 Since people are talking about having Moyer back next year, I'd be interested in seeing this kind of analysis done on him. It doesn't seem to me like a guy who walks 2.5 people per 9 innings and only strikes out 4.6 is doing anything all that special. Last year his ground ball to flyball ratio was .87, but I don't know what it is this year. Since people are talking about having Moyer back next year, I’d be interested in seeing this kind of analysis done on him. It doesn’t seem to me like a guy who walks 2.5 people per 9 innings and only strikes out 4.6 is doing anything all that special. Last year his ground ball to flyball ratio was .87, but I don’t know what it is this year.

]]> By: terry http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/01/gil-meche-revisited-yet-again/comment-page-2/#comment-130837 terry Wed, 02 Aug 2006 11:23:18 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/01/gil-meche-revisited-yet-again/#comment-130837 #62: thanks #62: thanks

]]> By: mntr http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/01/gil-meche-revisited-yet-again/comment-page-2/#comment-130834 mntr Wed, 02 Aug 2006 06:56:22 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/01/gil-meche-revisited-yet-again/#comment-130834 What's a good Safeco pitcher? I'd think being a lefty who doesn't walk people is the gneeral prototype, with everything else being gravy. What’s a good Safeco pitcher? I’d think being a lefty who doesn’t walk people is the gneeral prototype, with everything else being gravy.

]]> By: Dave http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/01/gil-meche-revisited-yet-again/comment-page-2/#comment-130749 Dave Wed, 02 Aug 2006 00:58:23 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/01/gil-meche-revisited-yet-again/#comment-130749 Oh, the Meche data I got by going to his game log on fangraphs.com, then dumping it into excel and running the calculations myself. Oh, the Meche data I got by going to his game log on fangraphs.com, then dumping it into excel and running the calculations myself.

]]> By: terry http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/01/gil-meche-revisited-yet-again/comment-page-2/#comment-130738 terry Wed, 02 Aug 2006 00:39:22 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/01/gil-meche-revisited-yet-again/#comment-130738 Thanks Dave-thats a great site and a new bookmark. I know this isn't an enlightened question but I was referring to the original breakdown on Meche-i've seen THT stats but I can only find season-to-date summaries. On another note, you guys really should charge for access to this site-I've learned less in college lectures :-) Thanks Dave-thats a great site and a new bookmark. I know this isn’t an enlightened question but I was referring to the original breakdown on Meche-i’ve seen THT stats but I can only find season-to-date summaries.

On another note, you guys really should charge for access to this site-I’ve learned less in college lectures :-)

]]> By: Dave http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/01/gil-meche-revisited-yet-again/comment-page-2/#comment-130726 Dave Wed, 02 Aug 2006 00:25:28 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/01/gil-meche-revisited-yet-again/#comment-130726 You can get them at www.minorleageusplits.com. You can get them at http://www.minorleageusplits.com.

]]> By: terry http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/01/gil-meche-revisited-yet-again/comment-page-2/#comment-130718 terry Wed, 02 Aug 2006 00:19:57 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/01/gil-meche-revisited-yet-again/#comment-130718 Where/how did you get the monthly splits for the rate stats? Where/how did you get the monthly splits for the rate stats?

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