Future Forty Update for August
The Future Forty has received its monthly update. There are some notable departures in this version, as I’ve decided that its time to give organizational opportunity a little more weight in the rankings than I have in the past. Opportunity is obviously vital to a prospects success, and if the organization isn’t going to give him one, we necessarily have to downgrade the likelyhood that he’s going to become a major league player.
So, with that in mind, Guillermo Quiroz and Bobby Livingston have both been removed from the list. Yes, they’re probably better bets to have major league careers than some of the players listed, but at this point, it’s almost certain that those major league careers won’t come with the Mariners, and neither has any real trade value, making it unlikely that the Mariners will ever get anything of value out of either player. Also departing are Shin-Soo Choo (traded), George Sherrill (established major leaguer), and Michael Saunders (not as good as some other end of list guys).
Replacing them are some new names, as well as a mea culpa. A few months ago, I booted Luis Valbuena from the Future Forty as he hadn’t hit in several years and his defense was nothing to write home about. Well, pretty much starting the day after that, he started to hit, and hit well. He earned a promotion out of the Midwest League, and is now trying to hold his own as a 20-year-old in high-A. So, sorry Luis, I never should have dismissed you in the first place. Welcome back. Joining him as newcomers or returners to the list are Michael Wilson (numbers too good to ignore right now), Kuo-Hui Lo (interesting young OF prospect), Carlos Peguero (Wladimir Balentien part two?), and Anthony Butler (solid arm, showing decent stuff in pro debut).
You’ll notice that the list got quite a bit younger. The top levels of the system are really being thinned out by promotion and trade. This isn’t a problem, as this is exactly what a farm system is for, but the bulk of the talent in the minors is now several years away. Among current minor leaguers, the only ones you could realistically expect to contribute the rest of the year would be Chris Snelling, Eric O’Flaherty, and Francisco Cruceta, and none of them would play major roles for the big club. I’ve categorized only 7 of the 32 minor leaguers on the Future Forty as being in one of the top four tiers of prospects. The guys who are close to the majors are probably role players, and the guys with talent to be everyday players are several years away. The M’s farm system is going to be ranked quite low again this offseason.
However, that shouldn’t cause us to overlook the fact that the farm system is doing its job – stocking the major league club with young, effective, cheap talent. A huge portion of the M’s success this season can be tied directly to the players the farm system promoted in the last 12-18 months. We won’t be seeing another wave of talent like the one we saw get to Seattle in the last year, but we don’t need to.
One player specific comment, since the guy has been generating some buzz lately for his improved play.
I’m a known critic of Wladimir Balentien. In the past, his approach at the plate was so terrible that finding a major leaguer who had succeeded with his mentality and skillset was darn near impossible. I kept comparing him to Hensley “Bam Bam” Muelens, and while we acknowledged the potential was there, kept reminding everyone that the risk was even higher. Until he learned to control the strike zone and make better contact, his ability to hit major league pitching was going to be neutralized.
So, in the last month, Wladimir Balentien apparently got the memo. During July, he drew 24 walks and struck out 25 times in 93 at-bats. This is a guy who drew 33 walks all of last season. His 2005 walk rate was 6.1%. In July, his walk rate was 26%. That’s a ridiculous difference, and there’s no chance it was a fluke. Wlad has clearly worked on his patience at the plate, working counts, and laying off pitches out of the strike zone.
However, it has come at a high cost. Balentien’s calling card has been his power, and that is the one tool he has that projects to the major leagues. He’s going to live and die by how often he crushes the baseball. And while the walks went through the roof, the power took the elevator to the ground floor. In July, just 7 of his 24 wents went for extra bases, or a 29% mark. For the rest of the season, 31 of his 65 hits had gone for extra bases, or 47%. That difference is just as significant as the walk rate. 29% XBH/H in the minors is barely acceptable for a player with a broad base of skills; for a guy whose power is his only plus tool, it’s disaster.
In the last month, we’ve seen Balentien essentially convert himself from being Hensley Muelens into being Rich Becker. While the improved walk rate is an extremely positive development, it’s hard to think that its a coincidence that his power took a nosedive when his approach at the plate changed. I’ve often referred to skillsets as a sliding scale – the more you move one set of skills, other skills are often negatively impacted. Wlad needs to show that he can both walk and hit for power at the same time.
As always, feel free to use this thread as a catch-all for minor league questions, and I’ll try to answer as many as I can.
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138 Responses to “Future Forty Update for August”
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In all fairness, I think that started when you chose to call him an “idiot.”
He is an idiot. I’m not the one making massive assumptions about his future based on that.
Fair enough, but the term “idiot” is a bit harsh and inflammatory.
Moving along, do you see Doug Fister as anything more than roster filler? Is he projected for relief long-term?
Is Fister still pitching in Everett?
Fair enough, but the term “idiot†is a bit harsh and inflammatory.
Okay. I take it back. So far, he has yet to show a willingness to work hard or be teachable, and that makes him a higher risk prospect. Better?
Moving along, do you see Doug Fister as anything more than roster filler? Is he projected for relief long-term?
He’s got a chance be more than roster filler. He’s in the Rohrbaugh class of pitchers – fringe stuff, solid command, we’ll have to wait and see. He’s got good sink on his fastball, which helps offset some of the lack of stuff. A few of these guys make it, most don’t. I haven’t figured out a good way to discern which ones will make it ahead of time.
Dave, what’s your opinion on Greg Halman? I keep hearing great things about him from people who have seen him play in Everett, but didn’t he get hurt recently in a brawl?
Fair enough. I see how these attributes make him a higher risk.
“Is the Organization trying to send a message by not promoting him a la Butler?”
My apolgies if this question was unclear. I meant, are they trying to make more of an example out of Tillman by not promoting, in an effort to maybe deflate the ego a little? Also, do you have an idea where he projects as a starter or middle relief? I can’t claim to fully know how the AZL games work, and it’s rare for any pitcher to get more than 3 innings of work, but I noticed he’s not getting starts.
Two questions (or, more accurately, two series of questions):
(1) Heard anything on Nathan Adcock? It looks like he is struggling a bit in the AZL, but I wondered if you have any reports on his projectability?
(2) Any developments on the Cam Nobles front? I don’t think the M’s have signed him, but I thought I saw several weeks ago that a signing was inevitable. Has that changed? What kind of a prospect do you think he is?
I’ve got a couple of questions.
I noticed Varvaro had one appearance in the AZL and hasn’t pitched in a month. Is he still hurt, or did he re-injure himself after that outing?
Also, only a couple of pitchers sporting a T-Rats uniform have looked any good. The two that seem to have really good numbers are Austin Bibens-Dirkx and Joe Woerman. Any thoughts on them?
So Dave, would it be fair to say that while Balentien has improved his walk rate, he hasn’t improved his plate discipline? That is, does the drop in XBH that goes with his increased walk rate probably mean that he is now watching some juicy meatballs cross the plate in an ill-fated attempt to improve by being more patient? It sure seems to me like the numbers are telling us that he probably hasn’t improved his pitch recognition any, just that now he’s erring on the side of walks rather than on the side of power.
there are certainly examples (Jose Guillen, Aramis Ramirez) of guys who were promoted aggressively and failed to develop for their original clubs.
coughPiratescough. In both cases, not only were they moved along aggressively (see Kendall, Jason) but when they arrived it was along with ridiculously high expectations from the media & public — Guillen was tagged with ‘then next Clemente’ based pretty much on a few throws home from RF — and the Pirates have never seemed to do much to develop players, especially after they hit the big league club.
Another guy I’m keeping a bit of an eye on: Austin Bibens-Dirkx. He’s a righty side-armer we drafted this year out of Portland, OR. I was actually at the game he appeared in back in June at Cheney, on his way to Wisconsin via Everett. Seems to be doing somewhat well as a bullpen arm in Wisconsin. Perhaps not a top-40 guy right now, but could be a useful bullpen arm in the near future. Looks like he’s missed some bats in Wisconsin (22 Ks and only 13 hits in 17.2 IPs; with only 2 BBs).
His pitching motion is very interesting, if not somewhat effective…
What do your folks say ’bout him?
Dave,
Something I’ve been wondering about for awhile: The Ms seem to be much more heavily invested in Venezuela than in the Dominican Republic. The Ms have scored major scouting/development successes with Venezuelan players in the past couple of years. Meanwhile, the Ms’ top Dominican prospect is Carlos Peguero, a 19-year-old with major contact issues in rookie ball.
This isn’t a 1-year phenomenon, either. Unless I’m mistaken, every Latin-American talent the team has signed and sent straight to the states in the past few years has been Venezuelan. As far as Dominican “products” go, it’s basically Soriano (who we kind of lucked into after signing him as an OF), Mateo, and not much else (David Ortiz was signed by the Ms’ old head of Dominican operations).
The Mariners don’t even own their own Academy space in the Dominican. Instead, they lease space in their head scout’s father’s complex (Epy Guerrero).
Why are the Ms so far behind most other teams in investing in the place that has produced the most major leaguers of any country other than the US? Is it a problem of reputation, or is there a deliberate reason the Mariners don’t sign any of the top dollar guys in the DR?
I’m out for the night, guys, so I’ll get to the rest of the questions tomorrow. Don’t worry, I’m not ignoring them.
To go back a bit to pitch recognition, I figure this might be relevant. People (and rats, for what it’s worth) who are repeatedly exposed to things which look/taste/sound very similar get better at telling them apart, so young hitters watching curveballs and fastballs might very well learn to differentiate them better just as a matter of experience. A slightly different phenomenon is that if you actively train people to discriminate between extreme examples of two categories (like Coors Lite and Sierra Nevada), and then try and train them to discriminate between more similar examples (say Yeungling Traditional and Yeungling Premium), they generally learn much better than if you just try and train them all along with the similar examples (all Yeungling, all the time) – this latter effect gets used quite a lot to try and teach Japanese speakers to tell the difference between /l/ and /r/ sounds. If we figure that low minor league pitchers throw curveballs and fastballs that look less similar than their more polished brethren in AAA or the majors, then, I’d think that pitch recognition could be quite nicely trained by a steady progression up through the grades, and aggressive promotion might be a real hindrence for a young hitter. Y’all pretty bored now, right?
Seattle is also the furthest ML city from the DR. It may have something to do with getting kids interested in signing here.
Uh huh. That doesn’t do much to explain the Venezuela thing though, does it?
116:
The M’s are basically the furthest city from all of Latin America.
My guess would be the Ms have taken a sort of moneyball approach, invest in scouting heavily areas other teams have overlooked, they emphasized Asia and Venezuela while other teams were all flocking to the DR.
Admittedly I don’t have proof to back this theory. With the proximity of DR to the United States and large populations in East coast cities such as NY and Miami, I believe there would be a preference to stay on that side of the country. This is why Minaya has set up huge Mets opperations and contiually signing young talent, sometimes before half the league even are aware of them.
And again this is only an assumption, Venezuela does not have quite the proximity nor as big of established communities in the US. Giving other ML cities a fair shake.
Of course it could be the Mariners did not or do not have the connections as some of the other oginizations in DR. While it produces a boat load of Major League talent it is a very small country, there are probably a handful of people that have these kids ears and push them in different directions. The Mariners then decided to focus their attention on another up and coming hot bed in Venezuela, where they could get in early and start to develop relationships with the right people and create a pipeline.
It’s like how do you get the best athletes in Florida to come play for the Dawgs’ football program? You don’t. Or the Mariners ability to land top Japanese talent due to their Pacific Rim location.
Just a theory. Maybe someone with better connects came expound upon the problem.
118-Agreed. Other teams were already well established there, so you have to find new areas for talent.
Learning in baseball isn’t exactly scientific because teaching isn’t scientific. Having been exposed to a variety of intense learning environements (immersion Russian and Spanish for the NSA, graduate school, division 1 baseball, recreational golf, etc.), I have pursued every shortcut to learning in existence – looking for that competitive edge that would help me separate from my peers.
What did I learn? Some people have an affinity for learning certain subjects or skills, and existing teaching systems don’t do much other than separate the wheat from the chaff.
Baseball is no different. How many minor league development programs are using anything more than personal experience of instructors to develop young players? Baseball instruction, almost universally, is an art form rather than a scientific endeavor. Instructors use feel and intuition and homeopathic remedies to try and fix “problems” or deficiences in players.
In some isolated cases, that universal axiom is being challenged with technology. Motion tracking technology is being used to help instructors spot biomechanical flaws not apparent to the naked eye. As feedback systems from such observations improve, we will be able to teach students with the requisite genetics (speed, strength, fast-twitch muscle fibers, etc.) the proper form and timing to leverage those genetics to hit, run, catch and throw at extreme levels.
For the time being, we have to wait and see which students “get it”, and which don’t.
re 118
To an extent, that’s true.
Colombia, though it’s still a soccer-first country, has been scouted by the M’s for some time now, and has yielded some guys who are pretty interesting, like Emiliano Fruto, Julio Santiago (when healthy, which is rarely, conditioning may be an issue), Jair Fernandez, Marwin Vega (if he ever gets his command down). Ismael Castro would be on the list had injuries not wrecked him, to a large extent, and Carlos Arroyo was never anything to write about, but the point is that they’ve done their homework there. There’s also some players from places like Ecuador and Nicaragua down in the low levels, but we haven’t seen much returns out of them yet that cause them to stand out.
The M’s also have done a decent job in Taiwan. Lo is probably the name to remember there, Chen could be a decent middle IF role player, and Huang could be something if he gets back to the US and gets the mechanical issues straightened out.
The M’s were among the first teams to scout Holland and Italy in any detail, and while that had its initial failures (Harvey Monte? Giuseppe Mazzanti? Francesco Imperiali? Anyone?), it seems to be paying off now that they have guys like Halman and Liddi, and have enough of a reputation there to play for the higher profile signings there as well.
Many teams at least try to find their niche in the international market and sign prospects from areas that they think will be successes later. While the M’s and other teams have helped open up Australia and Taiwan, clubs like the Brewers and the Royals are pouring their money into places like South Africa to see if they can uncover the next big crop of talent.
Thanks Dave.
Assuming Clement is ready for the majors by 2008, and that ready means ready to catch, does he collide with Jojima in the last year of his contract, or its extension? Of particular interest would be the premise that Mr. Yamauchi may expect Japanese stars on his team to stay on his team, meaning a scenario where Joe is at the dish for the long haul. Of course, what develops with Ichiro! and his contract situation may tell us some things.
122 –
Don’t forget Oleg Korneev (the first Russian pitching prospect), J! The M’s have been much more adventurous than most teams in looking overseas for talent. They seem to think they can get better value looking elsewhere than the Dominican, which is a perfectly reasonable gamble to make, esp. as it’s not like they’ve got NO presence there. They’ve got a DSL team, it’s just not as big an investment in time/money as their VSL operation.
I’d also point out that the M’s seem interested in South Africa as well, having signed a couple of guys from there (like Andy Phillips this year).
Remember Andrew Miller? The guy the M’s passed in the draft? He signed with Detroit today for what looks like a reasonable amount of money and will be pitching with the big club in September.
Seems like they are rushing him just a bit.
FWIW, I would think that back a decade or so, Seattle’s location might well have been outweighed by the presence of Alex in the system…
126 – they’re not rushing him, he got a clause in his contract mandating a sept. call-up. He’s not there to stay. A number of 1st rounders try and get this clause – a few of them are successful.
Yeah, that’s not a *huge* amount of money, but i wonder what the early opt-out for arbitration could be worth down the road? I haven’t seen the contract details, or how it stacks up w/what Hochevar got.
I’m nitpicking your “risk” ratings, because I’m bored at work and a terrible nerd. I think you need to recalibrate your scale, since the numbers only run from 5-10, and there’s only one “5.” If Bentacourt only rates a 5, how do you get to 1? Be Wolverine from the X-Men so you can heal between innings?
5.5 should represent an averagely risky prospect, so guys with no real history of injury and 570 “good enough” ML at bats should be looking at 2’s and 3’s, IMHO.
Please consider this, the fate of Western Civilization hangs in the balance.
Dave,
You say the the Mariners implement practices that aren’t condusive to patient hitting. What exactly are these exercises?
I’m glad to see the re-eval on both Valbuena and Michael Wilson. There was good reason to drop both of them from the list, but now good reason to put them on. Luis had a very poor start to the year, but he’s only 20, finally picked up the pace, and is holding his own as you say at high A. It’s worth nothing that the entire team in Wisconsin is hitting like limp celery; clearly there’s something wrong with the park or the atmosphere. If Valbuena looks scrawny _next_ year, and is at the right level, then maybe, but it’s too early to give up on him yet. Wilson was defintely old for high A to start the year, and hadn’t done much last year, either. On the other hand, he missed a bunch of development time by not signing when he was first drafted, and he’s just flat out hit for much of this year, and as well or better at AA. There’s no way _not_ to put him on the list, although I doubt he’ll get out of AAA, frankly. But he’s a better _player_ then, say, Kenny Kelly was, so.
Balentien: he has made a major, major change in his game since late May when his walk rate started to climb. Yes, he may not be belting them out at the same rate _just right now_. He’s got a lot to learn to incorporate his newly found ability to judge the zone with his intent to murder pitches in it, and has only had 6+ weeks to make that adjustment. Let’s give him a little time. I wouldn’t be at all surprised for it to take into next year for Bad Wlad the Impeller to put it all together, supposing he does. Yes, he has to _prove_ it, I’m glad the Ms left him at AA to work on his game, and if by this time next year he still isn’t driving the ball while showing good strikezone judgment I’d be worried. But so far, he’s on song and on schedule. And the thing is, we know that the power is THERE. It’s not like he forgot how to swing. He belongs on the list, is all I’m really saying at this point. And not trade for turnip greens. If he doesn’t make it, then it hasn’t cost the Ms much of anything. If he puts it together . . . I like it.
To me, the Ms system has done quite well the last 18 mo.: They promoted a group who will be the core of the team for the next 3-5 years, plus trade bait for a couple of semi-regulars. That’s just what a system is supposed to do. If you want a superstar, you often have to go outside your own system, ’cause they’re too rare to count on drafting one. But a system should generate a core group of regulars to hold down costs and broaden the talent base. And be it said: Most of those guys were acquired before Bavasi and Fontaine came on board. That’s not a knock on the latter two, but evidence that the cupboard wasn’t as bare as it looked, and so the talent acquisition strategy of the prior admin wasn’t quite as harebrained as it appeared in the short term, either.
Oh and Exhibit A in why the promotion strategy of the present Ms FO isn’t a good idea: Bobby Livingston. He was promoted without any real though regarding how to use him; jerked around; got hit, and then was dumped back in AAA. He’s stunk since, and I wonder if he’s hurt. Regardless, if it’s Bavasi’s idea to push guys until they fail, then he’s achieved that here, and the decision to remove Bobby from the Forty I’m sure reflects an organizational decision to write him off. But whose failure is it? I’d say Livingston never even had a shot.
I’ve watched Bavasi do this for 3 years with pitchers. Not everybody is Mark Lowe. Some guys need to be worked with, and worked up. I can’t say that I think much at all of the present FO’s approach with developing pitchers. Jump and dump, more or less. Borderline guys will never get any kind of shot here to contribute. If that means that the team moves on quickly to bringing in better guys from outside the org, then maybe. If it means I get to watch the equivalents of Pineiro and Washburn soak up ~$12M while pitching like replacement guys, then no, not really. I’d rather have those replacement guys ’cause one or two of them will actually turn in better results for a couple of years.
” . . . One of Balentien, Halman, or Pegeuro.” Yeah, that’s what I hope for: if _one_ of those guys hits potential, that’s an organizational homerun. But I’m hoping one makes it. And I agree that having all three guys around to try for that payoff is the sign of a good scouting operation, and in particular that in no case did it take a bidding war to sign these guys. That’s just smart hustle out in the distant sticks.
Uhlmansiek is having a solid season, and that’s what to look for, he’s healthy. I don’t know aht to make of Yung-Chi Chen, but he just keeps hitting and playing like I should actually, you know, pay attention to him. I want to see what he does next year before I actually do, but if he’s still binging along then, then I will.
Adam Jones has good power hitting fastballs. The question is, can he fend off breaking pitches enough to get his money-pitches to hit? I think the answer will be yes, ’cause he’s grown steadily at every level so far, so I see him as a powerhitting OFer, and by that I don’t mean a Corey Patterson type, although that’s a comp from the other side of the plate.
Tuiasasopo: His promotion was TOTALLY ASSININE. He hadn’t shown he could do more than make contact with pitches at high A, hasn’t excelled at any level, doesn’t have a defined defensive position, and really is still learning to play baseball as a sport. This is the kind of move that makes me want a different GM than the one we have now, just Not How to Go About It. And the org of course won’t admit that this is _THEIR_ failure, by sending him back down, no; they’ll blame Mattie for ‘not being able to handle it.’ Tui should have been held in SoCal like Balentien was held in San Antone.
Chao Wang from China too, Marc. I was gonna mention Korneev, but I decided to stick to areas that are on the verge of doing something now. Haven’t heard anything about Russian baseball for a while now.
And it’s Anthony Phillips 😛
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Not to detract from your post BelaX, but I wonder if part of B-Liv,s demotion, being jerked around, and sucking afterwards was Hargrove’s unwillingness to keep him on a schedule, which is improtant for any starter. He was given sparse opportunities and failed, whereas Lowe was the rare guy who grabbed the wheel and decided he was driving. It’s not often that things like that happen, but Hargrove doesn’t seem to always have patience for the normal learning curve. I’m pretty sure there’s a disconnect between Bavasi’s thinking and Hargrove’s there, but that’s just been a gut feeling of mine for some time now.
Perhaps for prospects from New York, since that’s where Alex was born.
Or from Miami, since that’s where he went to HS.
Dave, what’s your opinion on Greg Halman? I keep hearing great things about him from people who have seen him play in Everett, but didn’t he get hurt recently in a brawl?
No one questions the power. He can really put a charge in a baseball. Solid swing, no big mechanical issues, good athlete. Probably a corner OF down the line unless he works really hard to stay in center. Pitch recognition is poor, but he’s 18 and playing against college kids. Definitely a kid to watch. And yes, he’s out for the year after breaking his hand beating up Boise Hawks.
(1) Heard anything on Nathan Adcock? It looks like he is struggling a bit in the AZL, but I wondered if you have any reports on his projectability?
A project. He has some mechanical issues they’re trying to iron out. They like the potential, but he’s got a ways to go.
I noticed Varvaro had one appearance in the AZL and hasn’t pitched in a month. Is he still hurt, or did he re-injure himself after that outing?
He has some soreness. They’re being extra cautious.
Also, only a couple of pitchers sporting a T-Rats uniform have looked any good. The two that seem to have really good numbers are Austin Bibens-Dirkx and Joe Woerman. Any thoughts on them?
Bibens-Dirkx has the odd delivery that could make him a nighty right-handed specialist, but that’s pretty much his upside. Woerman’s an organizational guy.
Why are the Ms so far behind most other teams in investing in the place that has produced the most major leaguers of any country other than the US? Is it a problem of reputation, or is there a deliberate reason the Mariners don’t sign any of the top dollar guys in the DR?
The M’s feel the D.R. is overscouted. It’s pretty hard to find a kid down there who other clubs don’t know about, so they focus on other countries where they can try to find talents who haven’t been overexposed at a young age.
Assuming Clement is ready for the majors by 2008, and that ready means ready to catch, does he collide with Jojima in the last year of his contract, or its extension?
Clement and Johjima would probably split the duties in that case, and I doubt we’ll see Johjima get an extension unless Clement falls apart.
I’m nitpicking your “risk†ratings, because I’m bored at work and a terrible nerd. I think you need to recalibrate your scale, since the numbers only run from 5-10, and there’s only one “5.†If Bentacourt only rates a 5, how do you get to 1? Be Wolverine from the X-Men so you can heal between innings?
Well, at one point in time, Jeremy Reed was a 7 reward/2 risk (which, of course, turned out to be wrong, but that’s not the point here), so I’m not sure that the problem is my scale as much as it is the M’s emphasis on high-risk players. Yes, Betancourt’s a five, because his skillset is highly volatile from year to year. He’s basically a carbon copy of the young Cristian Guzman. Without drawing walks or hitting for some power, his offensive value is going to be completely tied to his ability to hit singles, and that is a very inconsistent skill.
You say the the Mariners implement practices that aren’t condusive to patient hitting. What exactly are these exercises?
The M’s coaches preach aggressiveness all the way through. That aggressive mindset carries over to young players approach at the plate.
first of all, let me begin by saying that I appreciate your site…I am wondering if any of you actually know what a good catcher is.I have read the clip where you harp on Rob Johnson. That might be the most incorrect comment I have ever read. He doesnt” belong” in AAA. Are you kidding me? The other catchers aren’t even worthy of holding his jock strap. He is the best defensive catcher hands down in this organization. Sure, his bat needs another year, but his performance as a back stop will be noted to go down in history. Mark my words…