More Random Notes
You know the drill by now.
1. Adrian Beltre doesn’t suck anymore.
I know the general baseball public hasn’t caught on yet, and because of his contract, he’s likely going to be considered a bust for the rest of his time in Seattle. But for the last couple of months, he’s been the Mariners best player. Here are some breakdowns:
April: .189/.284/.233, 90 at-bats
May: .264/.302/.355, 110 at-bats
June-Current: .287/.354/.539, 230 at-bats
In April, he was the worst player in baseball. In May, he just sucked. Since the beginning of June, he’s been playing at an all-star caliber level. A .900 OPS from a gold glove third baseman who plays half his games in Safeco Field and never takes a day off? That’s a borderline MVP candidate. And that’s what he’s been for the last two and a half months.
He’s not the guy he was in 2004, and he’ll never be that guy again. But since the beginning of June, he’s been the guy we thought we were signing. It’s still a small sample, and we can’t ignore April and May – they did happen, and the potential for them to happen again is still there – but we also can’t ignore that he’s now been Good Adrian for longer than he was Bad Adrian.
2. Chris Snelling apparently stole Bad Adrian’s Mojo.
On the other end of things, we have Doyle. After another 0 for 5 last night, he’s now hitting .218 for the season. But he hasn’t been consistently bad. Look at his montly splits:
May: .297/.371/.333, 48 at-bats
June: .301/.391/.507, 73 at-bats
July: .169/.286/.273, 77 at-bats
August: .000/.045/.000, 21 at-bats
He’s 9 for his last 98 dating back to July 1st. 9 for 98! In his last 64 at-bats, he’s walked twice.
The reports on him are similarly poor. He’s popping balls up, swinging through fastballs, chasing pitches out of the zone, and his mood has soured. At the end of June, he was hitting the ball well and on the verge of a major league callup. Since the calendar turned to July, he’s turned into an automatic out with no discernable approach at the plate.
Clearly, something is wrong. A kid who is this good of a hitter doesn’t go into a slump like this without there being an underlying cause. Almost everyone agrees that its mental, but we just don’t know. Here’s to hoping he snaps out of it soon.
3. The Mariners and Twins have the best bullpens in baseball.
And the average baseball fan has probably never heard of any of these guys. The Twins bullpen is the only one who can give the M’s end-of-game quartet a run for their money, and its made up of Joe Nathan, Juan Rincon, Pat Neshek, Dennys Reyes, and Jessie Crain. The M’s foursome of Putz, Soriano, Lowe, and Sherrill are just as dominant, but throw strikes a little less often. The final four for the Twins bullpen (Nathan, Rincon, Neshek, and Reyes) have a combined FIP of 2.27, while the M’s combined FIP is 2.49.
Either way, if you’re losing to the M’s or Twins after 6 innings, you’re probably done. Both of these teams have built lights-out bullpens that cost them nothing. Even after all the evidence, though, you still see teams throwing good money at big name relievers. It’s amazing.
4. My mother could beat up Willie Bloomquist.
Willie Ballgame has an Isolated Slugging% (SLG-BA) of .032, thanks to his whopping four extra base hits on the season. Among players with at least 100 plate appearances, WFB’s .032 ISO ranks 374th out of 374, unsurprisingly. But how bad is an ISO of .032?
The average national league pitcher has an ISO of .043. Willie Bloomquist has hit for less power this year than the league average hitting pitcher. Yes, he does some things well enough (mainly, steal bases) to keep a roster spot in the major leagues, but the idea that he’s any kind of major league player who deserves regular playing time is a joke.
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It is really nice to see Beltre playing like this.
Granted, it was against a pitcher that wouldn’t be starting for most ML teams. But Beltre just missed another HR, and pounded another line drive right at Lugo. He could have just as easily gone 3 for 4 with 2 HRs yesterday.
His monthly splits look good. But it is clear just by watching him that something is clicking.
If this turnaround is legitimate and sustainable, the M’s will be a real good shape for the next few years.
Thats why I was so pleased when Yuni swiped second base with 2 outs in the 9th inning the other night against Oakland. He knew as well as anyone that the total upside of a Bloomquist at-bat is a single, which wasn’t going to score him from first. Alas, Willie swung through strike 3. But I was pleased that Yuni was paying attention to the situation!
I think Willie’s ISO is one of the most fascinating stats in baseball. It is truly a singular accomplishment!
Dave — I wonder if Snelling’s brief call up resulted in his bad attitude? Maybe he realizes he has nowhere to play so he’s given up?
To me, Beltre practically earned his contract with his takedown of Scutaro on Sunday. It was great to see someone finally show some toughness against the A’s. I think in time he will become the hands-down leader of this team.
I saw Snelling a couple of weeks ago in Portland, and he looked low-energy and terrible.
I’m a psychologist, so I’m probably too quick to ascribe a cognitive cause, but there sure seemed to be a difference in his overall approach since the last time I watched him play. He was joyless. He looked like he was fighting Mono or the death of a close relative. He just looked tired and half-there.
I think he flinched once when we yelled “go Doyle,” though.
Dave — I wonder if Snelling’s brief call up resulted in his bad attitude? Maybe he realizes he has nowhere to play so he’s given up?
He was 3 for 36 in the week and a half preceding the callup, so the funk started before then. I wouldn’t be surprised if the “you’re up, no wait, you’re down” yo-yo is part of it, but it doesn’t look like it was the initial cause.
I saw Snelling a couple of weeks ago in Portland, and he looked low-energy and terrible.
Yep – that’s what everyone has been saying for the past few weeks. His personality has done a 180, and he’s just not the same guy everyone knew.
It seemed deeper than the typical “crap, I’m in a slump” funk. I was excited to see him play. He did not appear to be excited to play. He really did look more depressed than just irritated or a little down.
When was it Snelling was activated from his initial AAA rehab assignment and optioned down to Tacoma? If he’d been confident that he just had to rehab and then he’d be back on the team, and instead they optioned him so they could keep trotting Everett out there, I could see him feeling pretty crushed.
Sounds like Doyle’s problems coincide pretty strongly with Bavasi’s decision to buy Broussard/:Perez to replace Everett. Doyle was probably was thinking DH was his to lose once they pried Carl out of Grover’s cold, dead fingers. Gotta be a ton of disappointment in that development given how hard he’s worked to get back to this point.
Meanwhile those Willie numbers are horrifying. His power’s not just isolated, it’s in solitary confinement,
I’m not a psychologist, so I’ll avoid the depression/confidence/doesn’t-like-getting-dicked-around debate and point out that his pitch recognition has gone to hell. I saw him in the R’s last home game, and he was swinging at pitches he doesn’t dream of swinging at last year.
Either he’s (temporarily) lost a skill that used to make him so dangerous, or he knows his swing has slowed down and that’s forcing him to guess more. I have no idea why his swing would need to start sooner (he’s hurt his legs the past few years), but then, I have no idea why he can’t recognize a crappy AAA curve ball either.
Whatever it is, Pollz needs to earn his keep here.
I think we need a USSM night in Tacoma to go cheer for Doyle and, hopefully, lift his spirits! The force is strong with that one…
and Beltre being Beltre, having confidence that he can hit & hit here can only make him better.
#3– The M’s official mailbag today has a letter from someone wondering why they got Broussard instead of bullpen help, and Brock gently points out that the bullpen is not the problem. and if you read Batgirl you know all about Pat Neshak!
#10– could it be that he really does have the sore shoulder he was DL’d for? Would that be affecting the speed of his swing? Fearing that he might have yet another injury would certainly affect his personality…
and the quote of the day:
“He’s versatile and durable, he doesn’t walk people … I’m huge on a guy that throws it over the plate. He’s the kind of guy that puts it in play, more of a sinker-slider type pitcher.”
Cincinnati general manager Wayne Krivsky on Ryan Franklin.
#12 – And every night Franklin pitches so many fans get the opportunity to leave the ballpark with an honest to goodness major league homerun ball as a souvenir.
At the USSM get-together this spring, Bavasi said that Snelling’s goal was to make an opening-day roster. Maybe he should be told that next spring, the DH, LF or RF job is his to lose.
Yeah, then there’s the little matter of trading someone like Sexson or someone getting Ichiro over into CF.
Is it getting near make-or-break time for Chris? A couple years ago, he said something about thoughts of quitting, though he said last spring that he had no intention of hanging them up. But it sure sounds like he’s not in a good place mentally.
So, can we start officially calling him Willie *bleeping* Bloomquist now?
I heard him on a talk radio show saying how he should be playing every day, and the hosts were AGREEING WITH HIM?!?!? I think the local media (and ownership) have overbloated his ego and made him think he’s deserving. I really wanted to call in and remind them of his actual stats, but dangit I’m just too nice.
was it possibly on Wednesdays with Willie, the Willie Bloomquist show? Unlikely the host would tell him he sucked…
What is the fascination with pitchers forcing the hitter to “put the ball into play” (a la Ryan Franklin)? Just look at how often Franklin has given up dingers in his career.
Yeah, WFB is KILLING this team. If he wasn’t around sucking up 4.1% of the ABs, there’s no way the Ms would rank 13th in the AL in OBP, 11th in SLG, 12th in OPS, 14th (!) in AB/HR or 14th (!!!) in BB.
ok, maybe this is the quote of the day:
“… it’s not [Hargrove's] fault that he got nothing out of his DH for two-thirds of the year” — Sandmeyer & Mitch discussing why Hargrove has done fine this year, and why people shouldn’t call for his firing…
The radio hosts are for the most part terrible. There is a certain mid-afternoon host that gave himself this old standard: (paraphrasing) “Some people have called for Willie to get more playing time, and I agree.”
This is so assinine on so many levels, I hardly know where to begin. However, I will start with this…are the “some people” he speaks of Willie’s family?
OK, Dave, I think I know where you are going with this, but
“He’s not the guy he was in 2004, and he’ll never be that guy again”
and
“…we can’t ignore April and May – they did happen, and the potential for them to happen again is still there…”
seem to be somewhat contradictory statements. Please elaborate.
Thanks, Pete
How are those statements contradictory? I’m not trying to argue, I genuinely don’t understand what you mean.
21 – those statements are in no way contradictory.
12 – from all everyone’s said (and from the fact that Snelling’s been starting in RF most days), there was no shoulder injury. It was a way to get him on the MLB payroll as a reward. It’s made me wonder about physical/physiological causes, but again, unless it’s his eyes, I don’t know why his plate discipline and pitch recognition would go to hell like they have.
Looking ahead to next year, how can we improve ourselves. I know we need a LF and some SP’s, but who is out there that we can afford. Plus with the M’s track record on free-agent move’s being worse than Pinero’s fastball. Would you rather risk spending 13-15m on a Zito or Schimdt and then have them turn into a Washburn, or promote within the organizaton, if we have anyone to promote. I guess all i am trying to say is Seattle-Buyer Beware, Safeco field is haunted with lost dreams of so many fans.
21
How?
I think 21’s point might be to question why we can’t ignore April and May but should ignore all of 2004.
Or 21 might be confusing 2004 with 2005
Lostinwi, check out yesterday’s thread. 242 comments on the subject.
I think I know what Pete’s getting at in #21. He’s trying to say that if April is potentially repeatable, so is 2004. I don’t agree.
Beltre probably isn’t going to hit .330 or slug .600 over a full season again- but he’s a valuable player hitting .290/.350/.540.
As for Doyle… I don’t know. It has to be awfully tough, having injuries knock you out of the box every single time you get close to your dream.
Thanks Dave i’ll check it out.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Beltre put together another year similar to 2004 at some point. His approach at the plate just looks so fundamentally flawed much of the time (even lately) . . . if someone can get through to him it might be a magic bullet.
Actually, I was confusing 2004 with 2005 [blushes], but I do think that if April is repeatable, so is 2004 (at least, league and park-adjusted).
I feel a little bit like Emily Littella….
Beltre probably isn’t going to hit .330 or slug .600 over a full season again- but he’s a valuable player hitting .290/.350/.540.
Yup…but try convincing the casual fan about that….
So, given his proven (in)ability, is it a good thing when Willie B. is at the plate with two outs in the bottom of the ninth with the game on the line? Shockingly, it didn’t turn out well the other day against the A’s.
I enjoyed Niehaus’ call of Willie’s 5-bounce single to shallow CF last night as “Bloomquist SMOKES that ball for a single!”
Heck, try convincing ESPN’s senior statistical writer of that.
Here’s what Rob Neyer wrote yesterday in his “what if” column:
What if the Mariners weren’t paying Adrian Beltre $11.5 million this season? Sorry. That’s a cheap shot, I know. Anyway, according to the Seattle broadcasters, Beltre’s going to turn things around any day now. Really.
Rob decided to turn in a column based on things that have gone wrong that have significantly altered the fate of the franchise this year – Rich Harden getting hurt, Rondell White sucking eggs, Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui going down etc… In his mind, Beltre’s 2006 performance has been of comparable damage to the M’s.
Further proof that the national columnist is obsolete. There’s absolutely no reason to care what Rob Neyer, Joe Sheehan, Keith Law, or whoever writes about the M’s. They know less about the team than the average USSM reader.
Ah, but don’t forget, from this point on in their careers Snelling will be a better ballplayer than Alfonso Soriano.
Can we blame Everett for Doyle’s fall off?
Dave,
We know Bavasi is a decent guy, right? Do you think there is any chance that he sat down with Doyle at the start of July and basically told him the team couldn’t count on him because of his injury history and that he wasn’t going to get up to Seattle anytime soon?
I can’t think of something much more professionally demoralizing than to go through his brutal, brutal rehab, working for years… and then sit in Tacoma and watch as CARL FRIGGIN EVERETT gets at-bat after at-bat after at-bat…
Then finally waiting to get up there you find out the FO has already gone after the first half of the new DH platoon.
I would be devastated and frustrated myself.
It was such a mind-numbingly idiotic move to get and play Everett, that I don’t see why Doyle would have any positive feelings about current management whatsoever.
We know Bavasi is a decent guy, right? Do you think there is any chance that he sat down with Doyle at the start of July and basically told him the team couldn’t count on him because of his injury history and that he wasn’t going to get up to Seattle anytime soon?
No, I don’t think that conversation took place.
My totally wild guess is that it’s something non-baseball related.
Hell, I’m convinced that everything that went wrong this year is Everett’s fault. If you can’t show me tangible proof that Everett hasn’t been stealing MPH from Joel’s fastball, and calling 2-0 meatballs when Felix is on the mound, and secretly penciling Willie Boom Boom’s name into the lineup every day, then I’m willing to entertain the notion that he was behind it all.
37 – You know what? Setting aside your out of context sarcasm for a moment…
I think if they promoted Snelling today and handed him the DH job, it is at least as likely that he would start hitting the snot out of the ball as any other scenario.
Regarding Adrian’s takedown of Scutaro on Sunday…good “slide” or no, I’ll bet even money he gets a pitch thrown at his head next week in Oakland.
I doubt there will be any payback for Beltre’s slide into second. Even the A’s infield coach was praising Beltre for “playing the game the right way”, and said that it was probably Scutaro’s fault for staying so close to the base and allowing himself to be taken out.
“My totally wild guess is that it’s something non-baseball related.”
I thought about that too. As well as the possibility that the shoulder issue really presented itself earlier than the when he was put on the DL (and maybe he didn’t mention it?). Another “oh crap, what now?” moment, shortly before being called up then sent down without playing at all might push a guy with Doyle’s history into a mental funk. I hope he snaps out of it, whatever it is.
anybody know if Doyle’s dogs are ok?
Is it possible that he’s just worn down from all the rehab? When was the last time he had a true “off-season”? Seems to me that he’s been working year-round for the past 5 years.
#15 # vb1138 said “I heard him on a talk radio show saying how he should be playing every day, and the hosts were AGREEING WITH HIM?!?!?
I’m sure that was on Wednesday’s with Willie. Not that I’m defending WFB for bitching about not starting, but Softy basically goads him into it sometimes. Softy said something like — “Isn’t it frustrating to see Jeremy Reed get hurt and first Shin-Soo Choo and then Adam Jones get the CF job and you don’t get a shot at it?”
Here was Bloomquist’s reply: “I’m very frustrated. I’m a competitor. I want to play. I work real hard and it’s awful frustrating. I don’t mean to bitch and moan about it, but I’m frustrated.”
I think we’ve all discussed this before. It’s great that WFB wants to start, and that’s what I’d expect him to want to do. But the manager needs to be smart enough to understand he is not a starting caliber player.
#40. Thanks Dave for suggesting Doyle’s problems may be non-baseball related. As I was reading the posts, and the speculation regarding mental problems that may be causing Doyle’s slump, the thought crossed my mind that his problems could be anything that impacts his life. Yes, baseball is the major part of his young life but we don’t know what else is going on in his head. Let us just hope he works it out and gets back on track to the big club. Meanwhile maybe we should end all of the conjecture based on insufficient knowledge.
anybody know if Doyle’s dogs are ok?
He’s had feet problem in the past? That’s news to me. Okay… bad joke, I know.
I wish Chris the best. I think his patience with his injuries will pay off some day with a productive and healthy long streak of Major League games. I hope that pay off is with the Mariners.
I think I know what Pete’s getting at in #21. He’s trying to say that if April is potentially repeatable, so is 2004. I don’t agree.
It can be summarized this way: It’s harder to do your best than it is to be a total slacker.
Beltre’s second half of 2004 is harder to attain than his April 2006.
No one has been given more chances to earn a starting job than Bloomquist.
I’ve wondered the last week or so whether this team would be better off sending Jones back to Tacoma and playing WFB every day in CF. If the season really is basically over, let’s see just how great a .250/.250/.250 hitter with a replacement-level glove can be.
#53.
A more accurate description of WFB’s fate does not exist.
On the Beltre subject, it looks to me like he is playing with more confidence, and a totally different attitude. Plus I think he has always had better second halves historically.
I’m still lobbying for the M’s to move the left field alley fence in ten feet. Beltre has missed at least 5 HRs to that dead zone out there this year in my recollection.
In April, he was the worst player in baseball.
I know I’m sort of nitpicking here, since your main point here is just that Beltre was really bad, but Rondell White was clearly the worst player in baseball in April.
.189/.284/.233 — Beltre, in Safeco, with good D
.136/.143/.148 — White, in Metrodome, with no D (as DH)
And for fun…
.185/.227/.267 — Jim Kaat, P, career, bulk of ABs from ‘60-’72
The only thing White did other than hit singles at a ridiculously poor rate was hit one double and get hit by a pitch once, in 89 PA. Beltre also hit only one double, but had one HR to his credit, 2 HBP, and most importantly 10 BB. It’s an ugly battle to be in the middle of, but especially when considering defense, Beltre easily comes out on top.
I’d bet you would have a hard time finding a less valuable month in the history of baseball than Rondell White’s April 2006.
Okay, fair enough. Beltre was the second worst player in baseball in April.
It seems the frustration felt here is not so much in the losing record — it’s well within preseason expectations, plus or minus.
No, the frustration is with a series of idiotic blunders that have caused our collective craniums to explode on an almost nightly basis. Management should have known that Everett was toast before the season started, and that handing Bloomquist 157 at bats and counting is foolish. Informed fans are suffering through decisions that defy logic, and there is no end in sight to this trend.
And it’s particularly grating to think that Doyle may also be a victim of this ineptitude. He should have been called up when he was hitting the crap out of the ball in June. On a number of occasions, Dave described Doyle’s callup as imminent. I’m certain Doyle expected it as well. The fact that it didn’t happen at the time still pisses me off, and I can only imagine how Doyle feels.
Sadly, many, many Mariner fans don’t get it. For example, a friend of mine who is a staff writer for the Seattle Times thinks Bloomquist is awesome, Hendu is a poet and the USSM blog is nonsense. The B.S. that the Mariners are shoving down our throats is candy to a large chunk of the fan base.
Anybody hear Norm Charlton’s comments on the postgame show (KJR)? He was talking about how he was surprised that no contenders were chomping at the bit to add Willie Bloomquist because of how valuable he is off of the bench. Then added this gem: “It would take someone in Triple-A who is some kind of special to pry away Willie Bloomquist”
Dave, I may be beating the same dead horse again, but have you heard anything from within/surrounding the organization as to why Lowe won’t be given a chance to start next year? It makes no sense that a team with a farm system posessing only one projected front-end starter (in Arizona, years away) would keep someone with Lowe’s stuff in the pen. Especially considering the slim, overpriced pickens on the free agent market.
I’ve read two or three random comments by posters on this site claiming that the M’s are happy to keep Lowe where he’s at for the foreseeable future, and I want to know where that conclusion comes from.
Okay, fair enough. Beltre was the second worst player in baseball in April.
The funny thing to me is that I thought both players were signed to good deals. About $3M for a guy PECOTA projected at .286/.332/.449 on a team hurting for any sort of right-handed power? It seemed reasonable at the time.
Anyway, I just wanted to point this out because of how jaw-droppingly bad White was, not to show any sort of superior ability at analysis which doesn’t exist in the first place. Like I said, it doesn’t change any of the points you made in the first place.
It was my understanding that Fontaine is the one telling Bavasi “no” to Lowe in the rotation next year.
I’ve not been a WB detractor but rather put the blame on Mgt for playing him too much. But I confess, I am going to cave. He really doesn’t contribute for what he costs. I wonder if his league rep is as high as Norm Norm thinks it is. If so, why in the name of all that is just didn’t we peddle him last month? Also, for Pete’s sake, bring CS up and put him in CF. If his freakin head explodes and arms fall off, whatever, but at least we would have a bat and some sort of fielder there. I know, he probably is not a CF but what the hell, neither are the other two.
65 – I think there’s about zero chance that WFB’s league high rep is what Norm says it is; he’s just telling the fans what they want to hear.
33 – I hear what you’re saying, the average fan is pretty much soured on Beltre for good at this point. But winning solves a lot of those problems. So all the team really needs to do to get the fans to love Beltre is to win. See, wasn’t that easy?
Beltre’s had a couple of big HR’s lately, and that can do quite a bit to turn around fan perception. They say the average person will tend to remember the first thing they hear about someone, and the last thing they heard, and forget about most things in between.
So if Beltre can it a couple more big HR’s, he’ll become “clutch” like C-Rex was! (kidding about Carl, kidding!)
CO, You are right but I didn’t want to hear it!! Why don’t we take a page from the Yankees book. Whenever they have a POS player, they make him the new Micky Mantle and every GM drops their drawers to trade for him. Like Ricky Ledee.
60,61 – Not surprising re: The Times. I’ve always thought the media in this town is way too cozy and non-confrontational, especially the sports media.
w/r/t Norm, he’s always been a bit of an apologist, perhaps understandably so as a former player and former Mariner.
I’ve often wondered if Willie wasn’t from Port Orchard how long the dimwit front office would wait before kicking his useless self to the curb. I really think that he’s got some backers in the front office or ownership or something.
I can think of a number of players in AAA Tacoma I’d rather have on the roster than Willie right now, Sheriff …
We’re not the only club I’ve ever seen give a hometown boy too much of a shot. What was Pete Rose’s son’s name?
Dave or anyone with knowledge I do not possess,
Why, for the love of God, does Julio Mateo continue to be the 1st right hander out of the pen? We have two awesome righties (Lowe, Soriano) who are more than capable of shutting down the opposition. Did C-Rex pass on his incriminating evidence before he left, or what?
Xteve X, You just pointed out the flaw in my plan. You would have to recognize that you have a POS. In our Mariner world, we would believe the propanda that we put out and sign him to a long term deal.
Pardon my ignorance, but what’s a POS?
Piece of S__t
I’m of the opinion that Jones back to Tacoma will help the Ms more, long term, than burning up his confidence with a premature trip to the show. And if that means us fans have to get gritty and put up with some WFB in CF for a couple of months (like that’s really going to be the stake in our play-off heart this year?) so be it.
73:
Piece of (expletive).
Even though I pulled my Emily Littella eariler in the thread, I’m still interested in Dave’s elaboration on why he thinks Beltre’s 2004 is not repeatable. “Unlikely,” I understand. “Not repeatable,” well, not so much.
73: Point of sale. I.e., the place where you *buy* a ‘piece of (expletive)’.
POS makes sense now! Thanks!
I think hargrove has a little flash card or cheat sheet to help him manage based on situation.
Let’s see…5th inning, starting pitcher struggling…Has he reached 100 pitches yet? Oh wait…and 100. Ok now bring in mateo.
7th inning close game, warm up Lowe. Oh darn it Mateo, strike that and warm up Woods instead.
14th inning, hmmm looks like the only pitcher left is Putz but the game is tied. Lets go with tomorrow’s starter, Pineiro let’s go baby!
Hmm today is an odd-numbered date on a day with an ’s’ in it and a right-hander with 3 vowels in his name is starting, Bloomquist in cf.
77: It’s all a matter of probability. Anything’s *possible* including Jimmy Hoffa showing up in our starting rotation next year, or the Ms making the play-offs this year if you want to get really crazy. But the real question is: what are the odds? Ditto on a repeat for Beltre’s 2004 NL season.
Obviously, anything is possible. I’m not saying it can’t happen – it’s just so far from what we think his real true talent level is that it’s a pretty big longshot. Someone who is better at binomial distributions than I am could calculate the exact number of standard deviations and the odds that a guy who is really a .280/.330/.460 hitter (or something like that) can hit .330/.380/.620 over a 600 at-bat stretch.
Basically, his April is closer to his true talent level than his 2004 is, in my opinion.
I’ll gladly take Beltre’s performance from June until now for the rest of his contract! How quickly people forget about Russ Davis, etc..
Dave, you don’t think .287/.354/.539 represents his true talent level? No doubt he’s been “hot” but he’s also playing half his games in Safeco. On the road he’s 280/350/480 and that includes his slow start.
I guess it depends whether by true talent level we mean park neutral or Safeco adjusted. Sounds like there are rumors that the Safeco adjustment will come up toward park neutral next year.
Dave, you don’t think .287/.354/.539 represents his true talent level? No doubt he’s been “hot” but he’s also playing half his games in Safeco. On the road he’s 280/350/480 and that includes his slow start.
No, I don’t. I think it represents his true talent peak, or something close to it, anyways. This is what I expect out of Good Beltre, and not a lot more, while acknowledging that Bad Beltre is also part of the package.
This is something that I think most baseball fans get wrong – great seasons are often good players overachieving, but when a player is already assumed to be talented, its easy to ascribe 100% of their performance to talent and not any of it to luck.
If Willie Bloomquist hit .350 next year, we’d all say it was mostly luck. If Ichiro hit .420, we’d say he was just proving that he was a hall of fame talent. In reality, both seasons would have something like an equal amount of luck involved.
Beltre’s 2004 was not representative of his true talent level. That was a guy with significant talent having a good year mixed with a dose of good fortune.
So no, I don’t think we can honestly look at Adrian Beltre’s last two months, where he’s played better than he has his entire career (outside of ‘04) and say thats his true talent level. I think the last few months have been his true talent level plus some good luck (or a hot streak, or whatever you want to call it), and that his real true talent level is some mix of this kind of performance and a lesser cold streak performance. Whether the mix is 80% Good/20% bad or 50/50 or any number in between is up for discussion, but I’m pretty sure the mix isn’t 100/0.
#70 # Thingray said: “We’re not the only club I’ve ever seen give a hometown boy too much of a shot. What was Pete Rose’s son’s name?”
His name was Pete Rose, Jr. and he got all of 14 at-bats with the Reds in September of one non-contending season. Willie F Bloomquist has gotten 60 times as many Major League at-bat as Rose, Jr. had — and the talent level was probably pretty equal…
Pete Rose Jr.’s career
81, argh: Duh. I think that “answer” was implied in my question.
82, 85, Dave: I suppose this goes into the realm of the somewhat unhelpful “anything is possible” kind of thinking, but I think the fact that Beltre has already had a .330/.388/.629 season in a pitcher’s park indicates that the level of his “true” ability is higher than you suggest — unless you believe his talent has been somehow diminished in the interim. I don’t know enough about statistics and binomial distributions to know how likely that season is (1%, 2% for a “true .290 hitter?), but I think the fact that he achieved that season makes it more likely that his true level is closer to a standard deviation from his best season that it is from his worst, for reasons dw already mentioned (it is much easier to suck that to achieve your highest potential+).
I understand perfectly well the element of luck you are describing, and also that any player can randomly achieve a performance wildly out of whack with his “true” level of ability, but I also think it is smarter to assume that if a player has achieved that kind of season, it was due more to his “true” ability level being higher than you think rather than to achieving a 1-in-1,000+ season.
The Reds signed him not once, but twice! My only point is that he never would have sniffed the majors if he weren’t Pete Rose’s son.
Unfortunately, we have given WFB much more than that, as well as a pretty pricey contract for a no-hit, some-glove pinch runner.
Beltre’s 2004 was not representative of his true talent level.
Here I agree with you. And I don’t think we’ll see a year like that again.
But we’ll have to agree to disagree on his true talent level. I agree the last two months+ level of play is close to his peak, BUT I still think those numbers are heavily affected by Safeco and thus he’s better than his raw stats. Don’t know what his H/R splits have been since June 1 and really that’s a small sample size.
Let’s hope they move the fences in and we see what Beltre can do when his home park doesn’t kill him.
well, anyone who wants to weigh in on KJR right now — bigger diasappointment, Beltre or Sexson?
FWIW, Norm is still an employee of the Mariners, unlike the postgame voices on KOMO who are the employees of KOMO. Granted, neither is likely to rock the boat a lot, but….
Re: #82, (why is a Gilbert & Sullivan play going through my head right now?) Oh how quickly (and gladly) we forget about Bret Boone…
87. You have to look at his other seasons in comparison, as well. Sure, we could say that his true talent level lies in a .330/.380/.620 season, but what other season has he come even close to that? His 2004 season is so far out there as an outlier that it just doesn’t seem to fit any patterns. Unless you believe he’s grossly underachieved in every other season besides 2004, which is an understandable viewpoint. I’d just rather believe what his other 7+ seasons have shown
Oh not this again.
Sure, Beltre’s been hitting better of late, but for my money I’d probably rather have Russ Davis at third base — then the M’s could spend the leftover money on pitching. Davis (still only 36) is available, right?
In his three full seasons in Seattle, Davis averaged 20 HRs and 70 RBI with below average defense, but he also averaged less than $1.2 million in salary in those seasons. Beltre’s career slugging entering 2006 was .455 (and that includes his ‘04 season). Davis’ career slugging was .444. Yes, Davis played in a hitter’s park most of his career while Beltre did not, but Beltre makes 12 times as much a year!
82, 85, Dave: I suppose this goes into the realm of the somewhat unhelpful “anything is possible” kind of thinking, but I think the fact that Beltre has already had a .330/.388/.629 season in a pitcher’s park indicates that the level of his “true” ability is higher than you suggest — unless you believe his talent has been somehow diminished in the interim. I don’t know enough about statistics and binomial distributions to know how likely that season is (1%, 2% for a “true .290 hitter?), but I think the fact that he achieved that season makes it more likely that his true level is closer to a standard deviation from his best season that it is from his worst, for reasons dw already mentioned (it is much easier to suck that to achieve your highest potential+).
Okay, now this is going to lead me onto a somewhat related point that is kind of a pet peeve of mine that you may or may not care about. But here I go anyways.
I personally don’t believe that there’s any such a thing as a .280/.330/.460 true talent level. I wrote that phrase because that’s how the rest of the statistical baseball world communicates, and I know the point they’re getting at, so I generally don’t bother to bring this up. But in my opinion, writing things like “Player X is a .280 hitter” is incorrect. A .280 average is a result, and results are not true talent level indicators. They might correlate well enough for back of the napkin analysis, but if we’re going to actually try to break down a player’s skillset, I don’t much care about the results as evaluated by BA/OBP/SLG, honestly.
Adrian Beltre has specific skills that can translate into a wide range of performances, depending on context, opponent, park, and many other variables. Adrian Beltre is a right-handed pull hitter with slight groundball tendancies, a mediocre approach at the plate, problems with breaking balls, and an ability to crush fastballs up in the zone, so long as they aren’t too high. That is his true talent level.
The results that are generated from that true talent level are based on a lot of variables, and pegging a result line as his true talent level ignores too many context issues for me to feel like its a quality analysis. I know the idea behind it, and agree that for projections its necessary to establish a statistical baseline, but it also causes errors that are overlooked too often.
I understand perfectly well the element of luck you are describing, and also that any player can randomly achieve a performance wildly out of whack with his “true” level of ability, but I also think it is smarter to assume that if a player has achieved that kind of season, it was due more to his “true” ability level being higher than you think rather than to achieving a 1-in-1,000+ season.
Certainly, once a player has a performance that far away from his “baseline” true talent level, you have to adjust the baseline to acknowledge the fact that it happened, and increase the margin for error in your projections going forward.
But I guess I think Beltre’s true talent level, based on his skillset, is prone to prolonged slumps and deep caverns of suckiness that will drag down his true talent performance in my mind.
Yes, he can hit .330/.380/.600, because the skills are there for him to do so. But he can also hit .200/.250/.300, because the skills are also there for him to do that. Thus, his true talent level, in my opinion, is lower than what we’ve seen during his recent 9 week run of success.
What Dave is trying to say is that “true talent level” = the average, rather than the peaks or valleys of performance
Good point about the salary difference between Davis and Beltre, but I sure don’t miss cringing every time a ball was hit towards third when Davis was playing.
I think Beltre’s glove has to be included in any discussion. He probably saves at least a few runs a week. I’ve seen stats for what a players defense equals (runs +/-), but I don’t know where to find them.
I think that some of the folks sending criticism WFB’s way in this thread are making the same mistake as the Mariners’ FO – you’re falling into the trap of thinking of him as a starter in the first place.
As has been pointed out by the writers of this blog before, WFB DOES have value as a baseball player. His value is that he can play many defensive positions adequately enough to used as a spot-starter to rest the incumbents at those positions and as a late-inning pinch-runner who can then take over one of those positions for an inning or two.
Good for him to think he’s good enough to start regularly – to me that means that every time he goes out there he’s probably going to give his all to show management that he’s as good as he thinks he is. Self-confidence and positive self-image can only help him find ways to maximize his limited talents.
Every team needs a guy like WFB as a role player. The mistake is thinking of him as anything else. And that’s the management’s fault, not his.
#98 – You’re completely correct, but you know the law states the WFB discussion has to occur at least once a week on every Mariner blog!
Someone who is better at binomial distributions than I am could calculate the exact number of standard deviations and the odds that a guy who is really a .280/.330/.460 hitter (or something like that) can hit .330/.380/.620 over a 600 at-bat stretch.
The SLG is tougher because it’s not a binomial stat, but for simplicity, let’s maybe just go with the odds that a .280 hitter (coin) gets 198 hits (lands heads 198 times) in 600 at-bats (600 tosses) for a .330 average over that sample. (The coin/toss language is more exact because it isn’t affected by systematic effects like strength of schedule and such that have already been alluded to by Dave and some other commenters thus far in the discussion.)
A .280 hitter over 600 AB’s has an expected number of 168 hits and a standard deviation of 11.0 hits. (Kudos to Dave on the especially round numbers, btw.) Thus, to get 198 hits, a hitter would have to be 2.72 standard deviations above the mean.
Bottom line: The odds of a .280 hitter hitting .330 or better over 600 AB, thanks purely to chance, are 0.3%. Those are awfully long odds. (The odds of a .280 hitter hitting .220 or lower over 600 AB are even worse, at only 0.05%.)
Did I actually just read someone touting Russ Davis? Come on man, don’t go for half measures — Jim Presley is still out there somewhere, and he’s only 44.
Odds of me having a beer while I watch the game tonight, only 98%!
What Dave is trying to say is that “true talent level” = the average, rather than the peaks or valleys of performance
Having read Dave’s comments in #95, I disagree. By my reading, he’s saying that there isn’t any true underlying average. There are skills, and those skills put into the circumstances of a major league season could lead to a number of different expected performances.
Basically, it’s too simplistic to say that Beltre is a .xxx/.yyy/.zzz hitter, and that deviations from that will be due mainly to statistical variance (random chance). There are chances that he’ll have his head screwed on right for an extended period of time, maybe that he’ll be especially healthy (almost no little nagging injuries), get to face a lot of LHP, miss a few of the league’s best pitchers thanks to scheduling quirks, etc. Actually, if Beltre is on a hot streak, there’s the chance that he’ll help knock good pitchers out of games earlier and basically earn himself more at-bats against mediocre middle relief pitchers, which could also contribute to increasing his average on the season.
I believe Dave summed it up best as:
The results that are generated from that true talent level are based on a lot of variables, and pegging a result line as his true talent level ignores too many context issues for me to feel like its a quality analysis. I know the idea behind it, and agree that for projections its necessary to establish a statistical baseline, but it also causes errors that are overlooked too often.
Saying AB has a “true talent level” of .xxx/.yyy/.zzz might be a helpful approximation for certain purposes, but it’s just that–an approximation.
#101– you mean Marlins hitting coach Jim Presley?
I think that’s the same Jim Presley that played for us.
Methinks that using probability analysis to predict whether a player will deviate from any certain baseline to any arbitrary extreme is a flawed analytical approach.
Much better is to analyze historical group behavior for context. Find out which players within a certain group (combination of performance statistics vs. age, for example) and then peform a statistical analysis on how many of those players produced an extreme outlier season.
I’ll bet, using simple intuition, that the results would be far different than implied by this statement:
“Bottom line: The odds of a .280 hitter hitting .330 or better over 600 AB, thanks purely to chance, are 0.3%. Those are awfully long odds. (The odds of a .280 hitter hitting .220 or lower over 600 AB are even worse, at only 0.05%.)”
Straight probability analysis may indicate that dropping 60 points in BA is less likely than raising the BA 50 points. However, such analysis ignores the human factor, and is really irrelevant and a misuse of statistics.
98 – I think that is roughly were most people here see it.
I’ll go one more step toward the negative, though. I’m at the point where I’m thinking he was marginal value even as a role player.
He has been AWFUL on the bases this year, getting picked off and running us out of innings with some regularity. And that was the ONE thing he is supposed to be plus at. And he hasn’t been.
And even for a spot starter and flexible defensive replacement you can do better than 374th out of 374 in ISP.
He is overrated in every single facet of his game. He is bad in center, ok at best in the infield, godawful at the plate and, lately, bad on the basepaths.
You don’t think we could find someone better than that to fill his role?
He makes Mark McLemore look like Willie Mays.
Mat:
re-read the last two paragraphs of Dave’s #95 post, then re-think your rebuttal.
Straight probability analysis may indicate that dropping 60 points in BA is less likely than raising the BA 50 points. However, such analysis ignores the human factor, and is really irrelevant and a misuse of statistics.
Yup. Assumes that the events are independent and that all conditions are the same. Changes in approach and philosophy over time is problematic for those assumptions, as are changes in mechanics and approach over time. (And, of course, the fact that batters WILL take into account the outcomes they’ve had over previous at bats and change mechanics and approaches if they’ve had a slump or a hot streak).
“He makes Mark McLemore look like Willie Mays” – Almost made me blow water out my nose!
You make a good point though, WFB has not been very good at “doing what he does best” this year. Is this a case of people watching for him to steal (or take an extra base) after last year’s “success” in this dept?
Much better is to analyze historical group behavior for context. Find out which players within a certain group (combination of performance statistics vs. age, for example) and then peform a statistical analysis on how many of those players produced an extreme outlier season.
This is basically what PECOTA does. If you’re interested in this kind of stuff, the Hardball Times just did a five part roundtable discussion on projection systems last week. It wasn’t as good as it could have been, but there’s some interesting comments in there on this kind of subject matter.
Here’s one of the big drawbacks of trying to quantify a true talent level – you need a pretty large sample to draw that conclusion, and often times, by the time that sample is accumulated, the skillset has begun to change. And not all skills age the same way.
We know speed and defense peak earlier than power and patience, for instance. A speed and defense guy (Betancourt, for example) will reach his peak potential in those skills at an earlier age than a power and patience guy (Clement) will reach his peak in those skills. So you have to figure out how to adjust for the players skillset, and not just their performance.
It’s one of the reasons I’ve stated that I don’t think Betancourt has much more upside – he’s basically maxed out his current skillset. To improve, he’s going to have to develop skills he doesn’t currently have, which is a lot harder to do than growing underdeveloped skills.
But, yea, I agree that binomial distribution isn’t perfect for this kind of analysis, and its flaws help get to heart of my larger point – if we’re going to do real, deep analysis of a player, we need to get away from strict projection systems and evaluate skillsets instead.
This is one of the main reasons why I always talk about players skillsets in the minors and almost never talk about their raw performance lines. I know Michael Wilson is hitting well, but if he’s doing it with a skillset that doesn’t project to the majors very well, then we have to discount his performance.
I wonder if Betancourt might be a bit different, given that he was in Cuba, and then didn’t play for at least a year after he defected.
He has exceeded my expectations this year, and I hope he can continue to do so for many years to come!
Dave, if you could pick somebody to fill WFB’s “role” from the minors, who would it be? Or if you had a roster spot open, who would you add, regardless of if they filled his role?
Dayn Perry, unusually, has a more interesting column than usual, going over the schedules for the remainder of the season: “The first thing that jumps out is that the A’s have a substantially easier schedule than their AL West opponents, and they also play a hefty percentage of their remaining games at home.”
I wonder if Betancourt might be a bit different, given that he was in Cuba, and then didn’t play for at least a year after he defected.
I doubt it. His skillset is almost exactly what you’d expect from a player with his physical abilities. He’s a GB hitter, which is the best way to maximize the speed/gap power combination, but pretty much puts a kabosh on him ever for significant power. The high GB rate drives the high batting average while simultaneously suppressing his slugging rates.
So, if he’s going to add any additional power, it’s almost certainly going to have to come from an increase in FB%, which will lower his average (since flyballs are converted to outs more often than groundballs).
He’ll probably start walking a bit more as he ages, and his HR/FB% might increase a bit, pushing his SLG into the .450 range or so, but he’s likely to be a guy whose value is directly tied to how many singles he gets in a given year.
I still like his glove so much that any hitting is just a bonus!
Sure, me too. But we have to realize that he’s not getting any better defensively. He’s as good with the glove as he’s going to be, which is still darn awesome, but he’s not your typical 24 year old who is going to be significantly better at 27 or 28 than he is now.
re-read the last two paragraphs of Dave’s #95 post, then re-think your rebuttal.
My points stand, just as much as ever.
That makes sense to me. Besides, how could he possibly make any real improvement defensively? It’s not as if he has any real holes in that part of his game.
Developing the “skill” of “patience” does MORE than simply change a hitter’s “skillset.” In time it also alters the circumstances in which his skillset is employed: Pitchers will be forced to throw him more strikes. If he can adapt to the new circumstances, he has the opportunity to generate a significant improvement in the (statistical) result.
I’ll bet, using simple intuition, that the results would be far different than implied by this statement:
“Bottom line: The odds of a .280 hitter hitting .330 or better over 600 AB, thanks purely to chance, are 0.3%. Those are awfully long odds. (The odds of a .280 hitter hitting .220 or lower over 600 AB are even worse, at only 0.05%.)”
Right, which is why I went on to support Dave’s assertion that saying a player is a “true” .xxx/.yyy/.zzz player is a sub-optimal way to project things, and also why I mentioned:
The coin/toss language is more exact because it isn’t affected by systematic effects like strength of schedule and such that have already been alluded to by Dave and some other commenters thus far in the discussion.
He sort of requested odds based on a binomial distribution, though, and I obliged. At this point, I’m starting to get overly defensive, though.
The coin/toss language was the one that made the most sense to me. But I would guess that the odds of someone declining would almost always exceed the odds of improvement, simply due to the risk of injury and aging.
#94. In his three full seasons in Seattle, Davis averaged 20 HRs and 70 RBI with below average defense, but he also averaged less than $1.2 million in salary in those seasons….Beltre makes 12 times as much a year!
As JAS sez in #106, “context”…
Davis’ Mariner salary was actually $120,000 + $185,000 + $1,000,000 + $2,350,000 (1996 thru 1999). In 1999 he was getting paid more than Jamie Moyer, ARod was getting only $800,000 more than Davis, and there were only 7 Mariners on a list of 31 who got paid more than Davis (Raul Ibanez got only $220,000 that year). Junior Griffey was tops at $8.76 mil (a bargain rate, since he’s never gotten more than $12.5 mil).
In today’s dollars, Davis’ 1999 salary might be around $8-9 mil.
Very good point Karen. I had the same thought when salaries were being compared, but I didn’t want to venture a guess at what Davis might make if he were playing at that level these days.
Here’s an interesting perspective. Who do you think has been a better hitter this year, Raul Ibanez or Adrian Beltre? We know who Rob Neyer thinks has been better. I wonder who the Ms think has been better… Anyway,
Beltre on the road: .831 OPS. at home: .672.
Ibanez on the road: .811 OPS. at home: .895.
In other words, on the road, in more neutral parks (as to righty/lefty advantages), Beltre has been a better hitter than Ibanez, and that time period includes Beltre’s horrendously terrible April. Safeco Field strikes again.
36: Wtf happened to Neyer?!
I may be drifting over towards the group of people that would like to see a minor adjustment to the fences at Safeco. Maybe bring them in just a few feet in the alley in left center, so we don’t totally destroy every right handed power hitter that walks in the door.
Dave,
Thanks for the post. It was nice to read.
I agree that Adrian’s past two months have been exceptional. If he could pull .280/.350/.530 for a year, given the ballpark and his defense, I wouldn’t consider his contract (at least for the time of that production) bad. Here’s to hoping he can stay steady with what he’s been up to lately.
Thank you for the info on Snelling. It’s good to hear a little more about what seems to be going on.
I agree with you on the bullpen thoughts. The worst part is that most of the guys who are having the big bucks thrown at them aren’t even worthy of it, which is something that any reasonable and logical deduction could figure out. That only adds insult to injury though when people are being paid millions to pitch 50-80 innings a year, crappy or otherwise.
Willie… well, you already know my thoughts.
In other words, on the road, in more neutral parks (as to righty/lefty advantages), Beltre has been a better hitter than Ibanez, and that time period includes Beltre’s horrendously terrible April. Safeco Field strikes again.
Except we can’t just throw out the home numbers and chalk them up 100% to park factors. Ibanez has well outclassed Adrian at home, beyond what Safeco’s factors would suggest. That’s real, and that can’t be thrown out.
A better way to do this analysis would be to park adjust the home numbers, then add them back to the road numbers. In that case, Ibanez would still come out on top, which is more reflective of reality.
36: Wtf happened to Neyer?!
His column is something like the 342nd most important thing in his life now. And it shows.
I may be drifting over towards the group of people that would like to see a minor adjustment to the fences at Safeco. Maybe bring them in just a few feet in the alley in left center, so we don’t totally destroy every right handed power hitter that walks in the door.
The welcoming party will show you to the snack bar – the party starts at 7:00. Glad you could make it.
I agree that Adrian’s past two months have been exceptional. If he could pull .280/.350/.530 for a year, given the ballpark and his defense, I wouldn’t consider his contract (at least for the time of that production) bad. Here’s to hoping he can stay steady with what he’s been up to lately.
If Beltre hits .280/.350/.530 for a year in Safeco, the contract is a screaming bargain.
And the NY Giants vote to lower and widen the crossbars and shorten the end zones at Qwest field (sorry for the football/Seahawks reference, but I received my MNF tickets today).
Does anybody think the FO would actually change the dimensions of Safeco, even a little? I have read that they designed the park with the ability to make small adjustments in mind.
Say you have two players who everyone agrees are true .280 hitters. Which one is more likely to hit .330 at some point in the future (assuming everything else is equal), the one who hit .330 once before, or the one who has never hit .330 before?
It’s kinda like trying to figure out who to pitch to in the bottom of the nith of a one-run game . . . the .325 hitter who’s 0-for-4 or the .260 hitter who’s 3-for-4.
Statistical analysis probably isn’t going to answer either of those questions to anyone’s satisfaction.
Isn’t that half of the fun of baseball? The stats are great and all, but I love the fact that you never truly know what will happen in any given game, month, or season.
It’s pretty hard to see how moving the fences in helps the M’s more than it hurts them. Without a pretty thorough roster makeover, won’t every team that matters other than Minnesota benefit more than we will?
For every free agent slugger who’s afraid of what will happen to him at Safeco, there out to be a FA pitcher who’s dying to come here.
After the sesaon is over, I’d like to see a game-by-game analysis of what might have happened in 2006 if the Safeco LC alley had been less deep. I’d hope to get an idea as to whether the M’s would have benefitted much more that the opponents. I think it’s easier to remember the almost-homers that Beltre and his mates hit than those that the visitors hit.
I say “might have happened” because we’d have to make some assumptions, thopugh I hope they’d be relatively minor. There are charts that show the landing spot of every batted ball in play, aren’t there? Draw a new fence line, turning some balls in play into home runs, and see what happens. OK, assume an OF steals a close one with a great grab some of the time.
On further thought as I type this, another problem would be in the variation of strategy that would result from different scores. For example, a batter trying to move a runner on second over to third, or a leading team deploying different relievers than a trailing team. Still, it would be interesting to see the results.
Dave said: “A better way to do this analysis would be to park adjust the home numbers, then add them back to the road numbers. In that case, Ibanez would still come out on top, which is more reflective of reality.”
Is there a way to “park adjust” for the fact that Beltre is particularly hurt by Safeco and Ibanez is particularly helped. I don’t believe you can use any old park factors in this case – you have to look at the player-specific (i.e. Beltre and Ibanez specific) park factors in order to perform the analysis, because Safeco Field clearly has a rather dramatic impact on their performances.
Here are Beltre’s and Ibanez’s home road splits by OPS for 2005 and 2006:
Player / Year / Home / Road / Total
Beltre / 2006 / .672 / .831 / .754
Beltre / 2005 / .694 / .735 / .716
Ibanez / 2006 / .895 / .811 / .861
Ibanez / 2005 / .808 / .775 / .792
Clearly, the 2006 splits are more dramatic than the 2005 splits, but, even using the 2005 splits, and giving no weight to the 2006 splits, Ibanez’s OPS is increased by .033 by Safeco, and Beltre’s is decreased by .041. That’s a .074 swing in OPS, attributable entirely to Safeco Field. If Beltre and Ibanez were on the same team in a different park, Beltre and Ibanez would likely have similar overall offensive numbers.
You’re saying that Ibanez gets the short porch in right, while Beltre has to fight against the black hole in LC…
#96, JAS: I think you have managed to capture the opposite of what Dave meant. “True talent level” is much more akin to “the peaks and valleys of performance,” otherwise known as variation, than it is to average, which is always just an approximation of “truth.”
#95, Dave: Not only do I appreciate your “pet peeve” (i.e., referring to a “true talent level” followed by an average), I share it. A guy I think I can safely refer to as much smarter than 99.9% of those of us here (Stephen Jay Gould, who wrote some interesting stuff on baseball) once said, to paraphrase, that only variation represents “truth” and averages are at best a poor approximation of it. That is truer, in baseball, for some players than others, and I appreciate (and agree with you) that Beltre is subject to wider variation than many other players might be.
However you approach the question, however, it still begs the question why you believe that Beltre’s average (or approximation of his “true” abilities) is less subject to variation on the high side than it might have been in 2004? Do you think some of his raw skills have diminished? Is Safeco that much of an impediment to a RH hitter that it could suppress high-side variation that much more than another pitcher’s park, like Dodger Stadium?
I know you have said things like “anything is possible” and “I’m not sayin it couldn’t happen,” but that is backtracking somewhat from your “Beltre will never again be the hitter he was in 2004.” I’m just trying to guage why you don’t seem to think 2004 is repeatable, given that it did happen once already, and Beltre is just entering (not, like say Sexson, exiting) what we might expect should be his “prime.” If I am pedantically holding your feet (and several unpicked nits) to the fire, I apologize. I’m just trying to see where, if anywhere we really differ on this.
Thanks, PL.
Regarding our bullpen and next year:
The bullpen next year might be slightly diminished if either Lowe or Soriano is moved to the rotation (which I’m rooting for them getting a shot). So, a couple questions: Is the shoulder fatigue of Soriano something that is going to keep them from letting him compete for a starting job next year? And— Hargrove has used Soriano for just over 53 innings this year already. Is this a sign they are ’stretching him out’ or just abuse by Hargrove?
People differ in their opinions on which role is tougher on a pitchers arm. I’ve heard people argue that it’s easier on a pitcher to be in a routine, and pitch every 5th day. Then I’ve heard people argue that it’s simply a matter of innings, and that the lesser workload in the bullpen is beneficial to someone with health issues.
If they’re healthy enough to pitch at the major league level, then use them wherever they bring the most benefit to the team IMO.
I find it hard to believe that there is truly a big difference in the injury risk between starting and relieving.
It’s pretty hard to see how moving the fences in helps the M’s more than it hurts them. Without a pretty thorough roster makeover, won’t every team that matters other than Minnesota benefit more than we will?
We did a whole thread on the issue. The point is roster construction – the fences currently discourage the M’s from acquiring right handed power hitters, which reduces the available pool of players to pick from.
After the sesaon is over, I’d like to see a game-by-game analysis of what might have happened in 2006 if the Safeco LC alley had been less deep. I’d hope to get an idea as to whether the M’s would have benefitted much more that the opponents. I think it’s easier to remember the almost-homers that Beltre and his mates hit than those that the visitors hit.
This would be really, really subjective, and there’d be no ways to verify the results. All ball-landing data gives you is the spot the ball came down, not velocity or arc. So how do you determine if a ball on the warning track was a rope double or a long fly? You can’t.
Is there a way to “park adjust” for the fact that Beltre is particularly hurt by Safeco and Ibanez is particularly helped. I don’t believe you can use any old park factors in this case – you have to look at the player-specific (i.e. Beltre and Ibanez specific) park factors in order to perform the analysis, because Safeco Field clearly has a rather dramatic impact on their performances.
Use the park factors for handedness, rather than individual players. The samples are too small to say “this is Ibanez’s Safeco factor” with any kind of confidence, even using multiple years of data. You’re still only looking at 500-600 at-bats.
The park factors, by batter handedness, are published each year in the Bill James Handbook. Going from memory, I believe the 03-05 park factor for RH batting average is 93, and it’s 88 for RH home runs. It’s 110 for LH batting average and 121 for LH home runs. So you’d use those individual factors to translate their stats.
People smarter than me would have to run the exact calculations, as you can’t just lop 21% of Ibanez’s home runs at Safeco off the total without adjusting the rest of his line either, but I’d imagine you could get Keith Woolner or Tom Tango to do this for you if you were really curious.
However you approach the question, however, it still begs the question why you believe that Beltre’s average (or approximation of his “true” abilities) is less subject to variation on the high side than it might have been in 2004? Do you think some of his raw skills have diminished? Is Safeco that much of an impediment to a RH hitter that it could suppress high-side variation that much more than another pitcher’s park, like Dodger Stadium?
Beltre’s 2004 success was driven almost entirely by an awesome 23.1% HR/FB rate. Since nearly 1/4 of his flyballs were leaving the yard, he was trotting around the bases instead of back to the dugout after long flyouts. He traded a lot of outs for a lot of home runs. Considering his career HR/FB rates are significantly lower (11-13%, except this year, where he’s at 9%), that really stands out to me as an extreme case of luck. Instead of just getting under the ball, he hit on the screws, and the ball traveled further.
Based on his mediocre approach at the plate and his noticable problems with pitch recognition, it’s hard for me to see him having the “see ball, crush ball” skill. It would appear more likely that he just happened to get the bat on the right plane pretty frequently in ‘04.
Personally, I would think pitching on a routine would be better, but I really don’t know. And however I felt might not agree with what the M’s front office felt was best in any case.
I hope the ’shoulder fatigue’ doesn’t block him out.
There are charts somewhere (that I’ve seen before, but can’t find) that show where all hits/outs landed though. I agree it would be extremely subjective, but it would still be fun to look at.
I suspect that Beltre will never hit anything near his high because the method to getting him out is basic. Get strike one across, go with a high fast ball and then work him down and away. Unless he changes and learns, not showing he can, he is limited. The reason he is effective is that pitchers are human and do not always hit their spots or are too dumb to read the scouting reports. If you make a mistake to him, he can crush you.
I suspect that Beltre will never hit anything near his high because the method to getting him out is basic. Get strike one across, go with a high fast ball and then work him down and away. Unless he changes and learns, not showing he can, he is limited. The reason he is effective is that pitchers are human and do not always hit their spots or are too dumb to read the scouting reports. If you make a mistake to him, he can crush you.
Lot of dumb pitchers he’s been facing over the past two and a half months, then.
An “extreme case of luck” is one way of putting it. I have another theory.
Either way, I also don’t believe that Beltre is ever going to play up to his contract. The M’s should be looking to dump that salary while Beltre is playing well now – and the Pads are interested.
Well watch him. For pity sake if you get a fastball a little inside and above his hands, he cannot lay off or hit it. Follow that with something low and outside and he can barely stand to let it go. And perhaps so, Corcoran last night got hammered through his own darn fault. He had him chasing and then stayed in the zone instead of going outside and Beltre got him. Baseball is played by humans, Beltre gets hits where he is normally and out and pitchers miss, actually a lot.
Safeco hurts hitters that hit the ball with back spin (usually are flyball hitters as well – for those that would like to search for Safeco fits with stats), and doesn’t hurt top spin hitters nearly as much (tend to be groundball hitters).
A RH hitter that hits line drives like Betancourt and Sexson won’t be hurt as much by Safeco but a guy like Beltre that routinely hits 360 foot flyballs with backspin is going to get eaten alive.
The key is to target guys that either:
1) Hit for power to right field regularly (whether they be LH or RH – LH pop prefferable).
2) Hit the ball with top spin.
If you hit the ball with back spin in Left field to Right-center in Safeco the ball gets eaten up in the air and floats longer, giving the fielder more time to catch up with the ball.
3) Overwhelming power that supercedes the park (Sexson, Thome, Wily MO types).
Gives a little insight as to why Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre were and are terrible fits for Safeco. Sexson, when he is right (waiting on the ball and not lunging or getting caught in between), is a very good Safeco fit despite being a RH power hitter.
Well watch him. For pity sake if you get a fastball a little inside and above his hands, he cannot lay off or hit it. Follow that with something low and outside and he can barely stand to let it go. And perhaps so, Corcoran last night got hammered through his own darn fault. He had him chasing and then stayed in the zone instead of going outside and Beltre got him. Baseball is played by humans, Beltre gets hits where he is normally and out and pitchers miss, actually a lot.
This is an observation that’s really kinda useless, in my opinion. If pitchers are normally that bad in hitting their spots, then it DOESN’T MATTER that there’s a predictable book to get him out–pitchers aren’t good enough to take advantage of it. And the pitchers that ARE that good are pretty good pitchers anyway, and are going to have that effect on everyone.
The reason for this is that the wind comes in from left field to right center and blows out towards right-field.
When you hit a ball hard to the big part of the park, you don’t want to hit it with back spin or it will “float” in the wind.
2) Hit the ball with top spin.
If you hit the ball with back spin in Left field to Right-center in Safeco the ball gets eaten up in the air and floats longer, giving the fielder more time to catch up with the ball.
Sounds logical…but how many RH power hitters are there who hit with top spin? And are they strong enough to hit it out at Safeco? (this isn’t a rhetorical question; I don’t know and some solid figures would be of help to me).
Fiddle. Catchers call dumb pitches and pitchers try to get guys out with their 3rd best. Why did Meche toss Thomas that meat pitch? He didn’t mean to get it in his zone but did and later thought that a breaking ball was a better selection. Baseball and humans. Please don’t tell me you watch Beltre and don’t yell at him to lay off the low and away! He has big holes but is also physically talented so he can cover…but not always. See April
The park factors, by batter handedness, are published each year in the Bill James Handbook. Going from memory, I believe the 03-05 park factor for RH batting average is 93, and it’s 88 for RH home runs. It’s 110 for LH batting average and 121 for LH home runs. So you’d use those individual factors to translate their stats.
Isn’t this kinda extreme for modern day ballparks? And, if so, do folks really find it that enjoyable?
Isn’t this kinda extreme for modern day ballparks? And, if so, do folks really find it that enjoyable?
Yes. Not me.
Fiddle. Catchers call dumb pitches and pitchers try to get guys out with their 3rd best. Why did Meche toss Thomas that meat pitch? He didn’t mean to get it in his zone but did and later thought that a breaking ball was a better selection. Baseball and humans. Please don’t tell me you watch Beltre and don’t yell at him to lay off the low and away! He has big holes but is also physically talented so he can cover…but not always. See April
My point is not that he’s a good bet to reach his 2004 status….my point is that, even with his streakiness, he still has value enough to the club. You seem to say that it’s much more likely to see an April, and I’m saying that’s not a good enough reason to dispose of him. There are enough poor pitchers and mistakes for him to have value to the team.
There is a big steaming pile of gritty WFB in center again tonight. I guess its platoon mode.
Why not send Jones down and let him get some work in.
Platoon?? They’re both right-handed. This makes no sense.
Nope, I said that he wouldn’t repeat his high water mark because he has big holes in his swing. All players do, Beltre shows that he can hold his own but, as you said, he is streaky. I also said that if he was able to close those holes, he could possibly do it but he has shown no abiity to adjust and close them. I like Beltre but I also think that he is a $12M version of Bell. But that is just me.
re:156
Its the only thing I can figure since its 2 nights in a row without Jones.
He could be getting a rest to work specifically with Pentland.
Maybe he is sick. Maybe Willie hid his bats or gave him a batch of Ex-Lax brownies.
Just speculation.
By the way, who saw the report on the PI-blog that Lowe is out with a bad elbow?
Its mentioned in the game thread. I hope its a short term thing.
Nope, I said that he wouldn’t repeat his high water mark because he has big holes in his swing. All players do, Beltre shows that he can hold his own but, as you said, he is streaky. I also said that if he was able to close those holes, he could possibly do it but he has shown no abiity to adjust and close them. I like Beltre but I also think that he is a $12M version of Bell. But that is just me.
So, we’re arguing about two different things and talking completely past each other. Typical blogosphere….
And we probably also agree on Jones…if you’re gonna bring him up, PLAY HIM.
A new definition of “theory”: completely unsupported speculation. I think it’s seriously loathesome — really, I’m sorry, but while I can think of politer ways to say this, I can’t think of more accurate ways — that people feel free to make steroid implications (and sure, correct me if that’s not what you’re saying here) — based on zero evidence. Players have had one-season home run spikes for a lot longer than steroids have been on the scene. If all you’ve got is a libellous “theory” to explain it, you haven’t got shit.
This is like the squalid cousin of the “he only ever had one good season” crap, but at least that one can at least be refuted by pointing at the numbers, for anyone who’s paying attention. You can still guarantee that both “arguments” will be raised by one or two people in any extended discussion of Beltre.
The Twins bullpen has been sweet. I remember first learning who Juan Rincon was and then that he was a setup man and being shocked. He’s quite good. And his name translated to English is Juan Corner, which is great. That’s a fun game to play if you’re bored, translating names. Jose Mesa is Joe Table. Jose Rosado is Joe Pink. They sound like gangsters.
In 1999 he was getting paid more than Jamie Moyer
ah, yes, I rememer those days. On the days Jamie pitched, you could see Karen Moyer sitting in her seat, twisted up like a pretzel with nerves– something that a decade of bouncing between the minors the majors and unemployment will do for you, I guess … she’s much calmer these days
“Basically, his [Beltre's] April is closer to his true talent level than his 2004 is, in my opinion.” Seconded, and amen. Adrian, after a blip in early July, has continued to connect with the pitch for another month. He’s a valuable guy right now. Right now. Let’s check in at the end of the season. . . . Still, it would make it _a lot_ easier to deal him if he—naw, he’s stayin’. And if he hits like this for a couple months a year, he’s not a hole in the lineup.
WFB: The fact that the team has NO other back-up plan in the outfield so that Billie Boomquist keeps getting ABs says everything about the present Ms FO that I dislike.
Doyle: It was said he had ‘a shoulder impingement’ in July, one of the unspecificed reason’s he wasn’t kept on the 25-man. Now, it may or may not be a relevant injury, but I tend to think that if he acquired yet another, entirely new physical problem this would, more than anything, affect his mental state and confidence in a baseball career. Don’t know if that’s it, but there’s nothing that would bring on major depression more than yet another significant injury, to me. And it sure sounds like depression even from the tatters of comments here. I doubt that being sent down has anything much to do with it. Might be non-baseball related, but _in season_? Unless he fell in love and she died, or Mumsy’s got the Big C it’s hard to see what else could hit him so hard as something which threaten’s his continued ability to play. . . . Sounds injury worry precipitated depression, to me. . . . Which sucks. There is life after, mate. But we’re still pulling for you.
Oh, and the idiot decision to bring up Adam Jones really rankles me. Again, this season the Ms FO have severely over-promoted their best buys in what seems like totally a bid by Bavasi to save his job by demonstrating ’success’ of a kind. That kind of pressure, with no tomorrow for failure, just doesn’t make for good decision making. Tui and Jones have been badly mishandled, and Clement could have used more time in AA coming back from the injury before being pushed up.
. . . I’ll be happy when Billy B.’s gone. He’s done for us what he can, and it’s time to get somebody who can do what he can’t.
I’ll miss Bob Fontaine, though. Here’s hoping that Antonetti (or whomever our next GM is — probably won’t be somebody of that caliber) can find somebody to match Fontaine to run the scouting department. Or maybe that somebody like Logan White is the hire to replace Bavasi.
And btw, for those of you who see a HR spike and immediately think “steroids”: you want to dig up Roger Maris and accuse him of juicing? Would you like to go grab Bob Cerv or Davey Johnson and ask them if they used the cream and the clear? Maybe you could pull Ted Williams’ head out of cold storage and try to get him to tell you what he took. Fact of the matter is (as Jerry Crasnick noted recently in BA), HR spikes and fluke seasons have been a part of the game back to the days when Babe Ruth’s idea of a training regimen was beer and hot dogs, when King Kelly was the best hitter in the majors — heck, probably all the way back to Alexander Cartwright.
All this idiotic steroid speculation reminds me of H. L. Mencken’s observation that “for every problem there is a solution that is simple, easy to understand, and wrong.” It’s an effort to impose simple order on a chaotic system, and as such matches Mencken’s statement perfectly.
Are you sure your ISO is right? I showed .072 which isn’t much different than Suckzuki’s .091. I’m not sure if this stat is entirely telling anyway.
I don’t completely disagree with the idea of Willie not playing every day, but having the weekend plan, I certainly see holes in the game he is quite capable of filling – late innings defensively at second comes to mind. Jose Lopez, while much improves, still gives me a pause. And, until we get a real centerfielder, he’s still better than Jones.