Game 113, Devil Rays at Mariners
Washburn vs Shields, 1:35 pm.
In lieu of writing about the team, let me direct you to today’s interesting reading material: Andy Dolphin has a free article at Baseball Prospectus on the value of pinch-hitting. It’s interesting stuff, but I’ll leave those of you who hate numbers with his conclusionary paragraph:
What can we conclude from all this? Simply put, when a pinch hitter comes in, you should expect him to do significantly worse than if he were a starter, so a substitution that would look good on paper may actually cost you runs. Managers beware!
As terrifying as it sounds, maybe Hargrove understood something we didn’t when he refused to pinch hit for Crazy Carl or Willie Ballgame in situations where a pinch-hit looked so obvious. Maybe.
Anyways, today’s line-up:
1. Ichiro, RF
2. Lopez, 2B
3. Beltre, 3B
4. Ibanez, LF
5. Sexson, 1B
6. Broussard, DH
7. Betancourt, SS
8. Rivera, C
9. Jones, CF
If the bottom of that line-up makes you groan, this should make you feel better: Tampa Bay is hitting Travis Lee (.208/.298/.344) in the cleanup spot.
Comments
289 Responses to “Game 113, Devil Rays at Mariners”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
USSM uses and recommends
I don’t see that he takes into account the fact that most pinch-hitting is done late in the ball game, against tough relief pitchers.
I wonder what those same hitters “normal” average is against closers and set-up men. Or the fact that you may have a specific reliever come in to face you in that situation, as opposed to whatever starting pitcher is going that day.
I’ve never been a huge fan of pinch-hitting, unless you have the chance to bring a much better bat off the bench (such as Kenji pinch-hitting for Rene).
Yeah… explain that to Dennis Eckersley and Kirk Gibson (1988).
hey, at least Jones is getting to play again….
Elden Auker, the former pitcher (from 1933-42) and author of the charming autobiography ‘Sleeper cars and flannel uniforms’ has died; ESPN’s Wright Thompson has a nice column about him today.
Auker had one of my all time favorite baseball quotes in his book:
“I’ll tell you one thing that hasn’t changed in baseball, despite what so many people who try to glorify our era at the expense of the modern players will tell you. We played for the money, too. To say we played for the love of the game is to perpetuate a myth. I liked baseball and it was certainly an enjoyable way to make a living, but the money is the only reason I played.”
…. and the column is here
O’Flaherty in Tacoma today: (W, 1-0) 2.0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0.00
I wonder who the oldest living former MLB player is. Auker had to be pretty close. As far as overall former pros, Buck O’Neil has gotta be right up there. I know Al Lopez WAS the oldest living hall of famer, well, until he died recently of course.
He’s seen so much baseball in his life… wonder what his opinion was on today’s pitchers. For example, Roger Clemens vs some of the greats of his time.
Johjima has been getting a lot more days off lately. Too bad we don’t have a serviceable back-up…well except for the one wasting away in San Antonio. Also Eli Marrero was released yesterday, I don’t know if he can handle the position defensively but he would certainly be an upgrade with the bat.
Also, Dave do you think the Mariners will have any interest in Jose Cruz Jr.? Seems reasonable since they wanted Lofton at the deadline. What do you think of Cruz’s defensive ability in center? Particularly in comparison to Jones and Bloomquist.
From what I can figure, there is aboslutely no television coverage for this game. Is that right? I mean, not just in Seattle but it’s not being broadcast in Tampa Bay. That seems a bit weird. MLB usually has one market playing it.
What time is the first pitch?
Day games usually aren’t televised these days for a variety of reasons.
now
Erm, on the weekdays at least. Weekends are a different story.
I’m thinking a final score of 7-3. I’m not too sure which team will have the 7, though.
whats the deal with Quiroz anyway?
What can we conclude from all this? Simply put, when a pinch hitter comes in, you should expect him to do significantly worse than if he were a starter, so a substitution that would look good on paper may actually cost you runs. Managers beware!
It’s difficult for me to be very moved by this analysis when the article isn’t very self-contained. It’s an interesting idea, though.
I’d like to know more about how “the model” works, and I’d like to know more about how he determined that the deviations from “the model” can be ascribed to luck. Using the chi-square analysis that I’ve seen Tango use in the past would be rather difficult since wOBA isn’t a binomial statistic, but rather the weighted sum of binomial statistics, so assigning the standard deviation to wOBA is a bit trickier than usual.
I’m more inclined to believe that there’s not really a huge difference in the ability of a hitter to get a hit off the bench as opposed to being a starter thrust into the same situation. I guess I think it makes more sense to make pinch hitting decisions based on skill sets rather than results, sort of like the discussion yesterday about how it makes more sense to assess a hitter’s “true talent level” on skillset rather than strictly on results.
Man, Tampa Bay is 18-41 on the road. I now feel guilty for the M’s crushing their spirits in the 10th last night. But not really.
Crap! Forgot it was an early game today!
I’m pretty close to agreeing with you Mat. I see some potential flaws in the analysis (thingray brought one of them up), and I don’t think I’d want to make decisions like “leave Raul Ibanez in to face a lefty in lieu of Eduardo Perez because the model tells me to”.
That said, I thought the article was interesting, which is why I pointed it out. We have to at least consider the possibility that he’s on to something.
Tampa’s GM has a lot of roster work to do still, so I can’t feel too bad. Yeah, sharing a division with NYY, BOS and TOR is tough, but TB is far from being a complete team.
9 – I’m watching the game on MLBTV.
i guess hitting .188 in San Antonio isn’t the best way to take Rivera’s spot
Re: lineup: so Joh is just resting today – no injuries or anything?
Attaboy Jarrod, way to walk Carl Crawford.
That said, I thought the article was interesting, which is why I pointed it out.
Oh yeah. It’s definitely fun stuff to look into. Another reminder that I need to get around to picking up a copy of The Book—Playing The Percentages In Baseball.
Joh always gets the game off when it’s a day game after a night game. Plus I think he took a foul tip off his throwing hand last night.
In the Awesome Gameday Pics department: Travis Lee could star as The Hick in any number of sitcoms or bad movies.
he shore do got a purty mouth.
Just black out a tooth and Travis Lee is perfect!
#23… with Norton and Lee following Crawford, walking Crawford isn’t such a bad thing.
Texas 2 – Oakland 0 Top of 5. Way to go Ichi…
Thanks #27, I now have ice and water all over the keyboard…
3-0 texas. Matthews just hit ahomer.
That was a pretty double by Ichiro.
Sacrificing with the second batter? An RBI leader? Ok.
de nada
Hey! Thassa what we like to see!
Beltre does not suck…
Beltre rules.
Might not have scored Ichiro from second, though. It was hit very hard.
I love good Adrian. If he can continue this for the rest of his career here that would be great. plus he is only like 28 or 29 right
Someone who’s watching: Tell me, please, that Lopez was bunting for a base hit there and failed. I do not want to hear that Grover was playing for one run in the FIRST &*!&ING INNING!
Fire Grover now.
39 – I’d tell you, but I’d be lying.
38 – Beltre is 27, I believe.
Beltre is 27.
39 – Sacrifice all the way. On the plus side it was solid execution by Lopez.
That is just about the stupidest play I can imagine. Y’know, I thought the big inning was a good thing.
#39 – Which leaves me wondering why we lost to a team managed by Hargrove in the playoffs…while we had Lou. Ouch.
I’ve seen Hargrove call that before early in the game – leadoff double, then give up the first out to get the runner to third. What are the pros/cons of that? It doesn’t seem like a good trade in the first inning.
45: Thome, Ramirez, Vizquel, S. Alomar (when he was good), etc.
Texas 6 Oakland 0 — Mark Derosa 3 run home run.
I’ve seen Hargrove call that before early in the game – leadoff double, then give up the first out to get the runner to third. What are the pros/cons of that?
Con:
You give up an out.
You give up a shot at a big inning.
You waste the talents of the person at bat.
Pro:
See?
Awesome. Go Rangers!
good day for Zito. Man I dont know about paying all that money to get him in the offseason. He is gonna ask for a ton of money.
46: It’s a very bad trade. You’ve got your best hitters up. You need to be playing for the big inning. Put a bunch of runs up at once. That’s a negative-EV play right there.
A one-run lead in the first can be overcome pretty easily. A three-or-four run lead in the first is a lot more difficult to manage.
Heck, I’m not even sure that bunting in that situation increases the chances of scoring one run, even. You’re probably reducing your chances of scoring one and reducing your expected run scoring for the inning. Stupid, stupid, stupid.
Let’s keep in mind that the Mariners have put a guy on base many, many times before, swung away and came away with nothing. Maybe Grover, even if it’s only one run, is playing for the one run because, hey, it’s at least a run.
Not that that’s what he’s doing, or even possesses the intelligence to make such logic, but it’s not a TERRIBLE idea given the team’s propensity to, say, get a runner on 3rd with no outs and not drive him in.
#49. I meant nonobvious pros/cons. Like, math. I could look it up, but if someone has it on the tip of their tongue…
What’s sad about that inning more then anything is that if Sexson didn’t work the count like he did and take a 6 pitch at bat, Shields would have gotten away with giving up a run in the first inning and only throwing 9 pitches.
Also, even though the M’s are essentially out of it, DOWN WITH OAKLAND. VAMAMOS TEJAS!
Yeah, one thing I’d like to see is how the pitchers who PH’s see perform. If you’re PHing a lot against Mariano Rivera and other good Ps, that’s going to skew the results, too.
Looked like Wash was just pumping fastballs down the middle, and hoping for something to finally happen! 32 pitches already.
53: I’ve been spending a lot of time with Fan Graphs’ win probability and leverage index charts this season. Mostly because they’re fun to look at. However, the big lesson to derive from them is that early in a ballgame a big inning is a killer. Late in a close ballgame it starts to make sense to play for one run. Early on, the best way to win a game is to maximize scoring, period. It’s been proven pretty conclusively that a bunt is a negative-EV play.
Particularly with your best hitters up. If Jose Lopez isn’t a good hitter, then what the heck is he doing in the two spot? Answer: He’s a good hitter. That’s why he’s there. Let him hit the damn ball.
I can understand this play late in a ballgame, especially when you have weaker hitters behind you. In the first inning? D-U-M.
Extremely dumb.
1 pitch 1 out
Ok, I’m stretching it pretty far here… maybe he didn’t like the way Lopez was attempting to sacrifice last night (even though it was a success), and he had him work on it today and thought… here’s a spot to give him another shot to practice that in a gametime situation. Still, it’s a dumb move. Doesn’t make baseball sense.
57. Good thing to mention, EC. Seeing lots of closers and ace relievers would definitely skew PH results downward, I’d think.
53 – Nah. No matter how you like at it it was a terrible idea. We’ve also sacrficed and failed to score.
It’s just dumb and he’s been doing it way too much this year. Remember, we were complaining about him doing that same thing with Lopez months ago.
I would like to see Broussard catch a little hot streak, starting now. He has been pretty bad so far since the trade.
Stop him, before he bunts again!
Seriously. Why in the world would you sac bunt with one of the team’s best hitters in the FIRST INNING?
It doesn’t make any sense, to anyone. Maybe Grover is just trying to have some fun by doing ludicrous stuff because he’s gone at the end of the season and doesn’t care anymore.
I would like to see Broussard catch a little hot streak, starting now. He has been pretty bad so far since the trade.
Hrm. If he stays in his funk, I suppose Bavasi will catch hell for that, as well…
62: That’s a pretty harebrained theory.
Which, unfortunately, very likely means it WAS Hargrove’s thought process.
It was the right move if Choo wasn’t going to be allowed to play, but it is unlucky he comes over and goes into a funk right away. Kind of Mariners’ luck.
Wow, both teams seem pretty anxious to get the hell out of dodge.
#68… ROTFLOL…I said I was stretching…
Seven pitches that inning… I like it. The Rays have clearly been listening to the M’s subliminal swinging-is-good tapes.
I was mentioning Lopez’s bunt attempts to my girlfriend last night. It didn’t seem like he was putting much effort into getting the bunt down.
But it’s still “stooopid” to sacrifice in the first inning.
BTW, did anyone else notice how long the pitcher was taking in the 10th last night to throw the intentional walks? Plus how soft he was throwing, and how faaaar outside.
Almost seemed like Ichiro could have stolen home!
64- It’s just dumb and he’s been doing it way too much this year. Remember, we were complaining about him doing that same thing with Lopez months ago.
Lopez now has as many SHs as the entire Blue Jays team.
WHY DO WE HAVE NO PATIENCE!?!?!
68: Why does that comment induce visions of Grover dancing around a flaming dugout siging, “I am so smart. S-M-R-T!”
Speaking of his unusual theories, Grover has apparently deepsixed the aggressive baserunning agenda. No Mariner has tripled since July 15th, and I beleive that steals are way down as well.
76
Comes from a COMPLETE lack of urgency imho. We just sort of “cruise” through innings as if not much is on the line. Its not like Grover is going to say anything about it, seems how it has yet to be a point of emphasis after all this time. No one has any “plan” at the plate. We just sort of whack away with our non power hitters and hope for the best in our spacious ballpark.
well at least Jones IS a compitent fielder.
Huh. The Rays aren’t, um. Doing well so far.
Comes from a COMPLETE lack of urgency imho. We just sort of “cruise” through innings as if not much is on the line. Its not like Grover is going to say anything about it, seems how it has yet to be a point of emphasis after all this time. No one has any “plan” at the plate. We just sort of whack away with our non power hitters and hope for the best in our spacious ballpark.
No, I think it’s an organizational philosophy that values aggresiveness over patience at the plate. And I think that Hargrove doesn’t value walks as an offensive weapon (and I KNOW he doesn’t value conserving outs).
indeed lauren, indeed.
Hells Bels!
Speaking of Hargrove’s thought processes and stretching, Grover apparently has abandoned the aggressive base running scheme. No Mariner has stretched a double into a triple since July 15th.
BELTRE!!!!!!!
13!
#82, all the more reason to hire Mr. Edgar Martinez as batting coach after the Hargrove regime comes to a merciful end.
I love Good Adrian.
Adrian is on fire… YO ADRIAN!!!
w00t. The world needs more 420 ft homeruns to center field.
I had to work hard to double post that. Sorry.
TX 8 Oakland 0.
8-0 texas
82
So they are actually following a plan by this idiocy? An ORGANIZATIONAL plan…GASP
There was a little writeup about the joy of seeing an outfielder give up on a ball over at LoL yesterday.. and boy was it fun to watch Hollins give up on that one
#13 baby! It is fun to see him startin to hit like most expected when he got here. I think the best part about that HR was that it was an opposite field HR, seems like most of the time lately when he scorches a ball to center or so it dies at the track and it started to scare me a little bit when he continued to pull HRs, as he is a much better hitter using the whole field.
11-0 texas with 5 homeruns
Wash is pitching so well that I can only conclude that he must think he’s behind 2-0. I mean he’s usually only unhittable when were getting shutout at home behind him.
Can you imagine what Texas will do to Pinata?
WOW… Derosa is hot
WHY did Yuni swing at that pitch?!
I don’t know anything about who broadcasts M’s games (is this niehaus on MLB tv?), but he made me laugh so very much reminding us that the game is indeed brought to you by Budweiser.
cbs sportsline shows belre flying out to center
Wow, they’re fouling off a TON of Washburn’s pitches today. Looks like he’s just barely fooling them.
Texas 13 Oakland 0.
texas is having a fun time with oakland, My Goodness
Even though he has looked pretty srong going to the right, the left and now bockon the ball, Jones still makes me a little nervous everytime a fly ball head out his way. He has the instincts to play out there. I can’tbelievehehas only a half of a season in the OF. Now if they’d just commit to him the rest of the year, run him out regardless of pitching match-ups and see what we have.
5 innings pitched, 3 groundball outs, 10 flyball outs, 2 strikeouts, 1 walk, 71 pitches. Not exactly the picture of metrical perfection, but I’ll take another team acting like the Mariners once in a while.
I am currently a Jarrod WAshburn fan.
that’s “strong” and “back on” and something is wrong with my space bar, hence run words.
Crawford has 9 SHs this season. That is a worse idea than letting Lopez bunt.
Way to go jones!
Jones pulls a ball! Holy Shit!
Well, Washburn DOES have a no-hitter through 5 innings *knocks on wood, breaks knuckles*.
btw, I’m sure the Texas/Oakland game will help Zito in the free agency market alot!
Then he smokes a stand up double! No more WFB!
was that necessary Dave in palo alto?
Jones has 3 xBHs; Willie Ballgame has 4….
It’s ALWAYS Jones left on base because Ichiro and Lopez can’t hit.
When was he last time Lopez actually got a rbi? before the break?
All that bunting has screwed up Lopez’s swing.
good stat 116. Plus Jones isnt even hitting that well. And he is already better than that scrappy little guy.
Melvin used to bunt a lot with Ichiro at 2nd and nobody out in the 1st inning. I just don’t get it — HE’S ALREADY IN SCORING POSITION!
Figures, I turn on the XM and the first effin’ batter I hear…
DEATH TO DAVE IN PALO ALTO!
wheres the hometown scoring!?
Dave in Palo Alto is officially fired…
I’m calling for a ban on Dave in Palo Alto.
on a fucking bunt. Atta boy, Zobrist.
breaking up a no-no with a bunt.
zobrist needs to get plunked next time up.
Also, Dave in Palo Alto needs to be removed.
As we have a minor break in the action, can anyone tell me if gameday audio is worthwhile? I recently moved to Meridian, ID, and there’s no radio affiliate out here.
I live in McCall, ID, and I use gameday audio. It works great.
Boo to Zobrist, the nancy.
Boo to DinPA.
Could have been an error, too.
I never understood that. If it was so easy to get a cheap single on a bunt, wouldn’t players be doing it all the time? Paging Ben Davis.
129: Bob Brenly would plunk him.
so would i
I live in Nampa and XM is pretty cool. A little spendier, but its great on my traffic infested commutes to and from Boise.
Meridian has got to have the worst bottleneck in the friggin’ state.
zobrist needs to get plunked next time up.
Whatever. The bunt to break up a no-hitter is a time-honored tradition. If you’re Ben Zobrist, “hitting” .214/.233/.393 and you’re not trying something like that to get a baserunner in a tight 2-0 game, then you’re not earning your paycheck. The longer a no-hit bid goes, the more the D has to be on the lookout for bunt attempts.
Do we have a designated “head hunter” on this team that we can send out there the next time Zobrist is up, or will J-Rod have to do it?
Yargh. Oh well, with pitch counts like this per batter, he wouldn’t have made it through 9 anyway.
If players did it all the times third basemen would play in all the time.
More a time dis-honored tradition, Mat.
132
I’m still impressed that you had heard of my beloved Chukars!
137: It’s by far the worst. The road is like what, 6 lanes wide to Eagle, then down to four, and then at Meridian it goes down to 2, but there’s still a heck of a lot of traffic going out to Nampa. I find it easier to take 44 out to Nampa and then head south in Star when I’m down that direction.
After doing the Auburn to Seattle commute, I’ll take Meridian to Boise any day. Thanks for the input IdahoInvader and David J. Corcoran I.
By the way – Corcoran, have you been able to crash gameday? I read somewhere you destroy everything you touch…
144
I find it easier to split the atom…when I’m in a hurry to have to get back for something time sensitive between 4-6:30!
Taking Chinden clear out works well too, during rushhour.
Meridian to Boise is pretty easy. Eastbound 84 is a nice road from Meridian. It’s Nampa to Boise westbound that is tough.
Heckuva job by Washburn today. Granted…its the D-Rays, but I’ll take it!
Everybody, the bunt to break up a no hitter in the sixth inning can easily be defended in a 2-0 game. Since he got on base, a home run ties the game. However, if I were Washburn, I probably wouldn’t resist the temptation to hit Zobrist in the head with the very next pitch he sees from me.
Yeah, I’ve seen the slowdowns when I exit at Eagle (shudders).
Ok, driving routes through Idaho is perhaps the least interesting tangent in USS Mariner history.
And Zobrist is a weenie.
152
Oh, I’m sure we could hit a new low if we were really to try…
If you want bad traffic in Idaho, come to McCall, Boise/Nampa is nothing compared to that.
152
LOL…I was waiting for someone to point this out. But it felt good to “purge my soul” about this topic.
Washburn’s gem is masking another pitiful offensive performance
This is my favorite tangent.
If anyone has a right to talk about traffic, it would be John in L.A. Right?
Go M’s.
However, if I were Washburn, I probably wouldn’t resist the temptation to hit Zobrist in the head with the very next pitch he sees from me.
Classy. Beanball to the head. Not like that’s ended any HOF careers, or liable to cause serious physical harm.
actually, don’t come to McCall. We don’t need any more cars.
I think John secrety loves this tangent but feel ashamed
Wow… .294 OBP by Richie…that’s just terrible.
159: It’s the hitter’s fault if he doesn’t get out of the way.
Thanks for adding “we don’t need any more cars.” I might have thought it was something I said.
Uh “feels ashamed.”
My wife’s aunt lived in McCall for a long time and is now a judge living in Boise.
Hey David, maybe you’ll meet her someday
The head is off limits, I agree with 159…but don’t you at least have to hit him in the ass or thigh. It is baseball, after all.
Ahh yes, the ass-high purpose pitch.
I want an ass-high porpoise.
This team has turned into DH kryptonite…
Broussard not only is stinking, he is stinking very early in the count.
Thanks to our lethargic offense, we won’t be able to afford to hit him in the head, butt, nuts, leg or whatever else, otherwise the tying run will be at the plate.
I would rather be hit in the head by a pitch from Washburn than have to read any more comments about traffic conditions in Idaho.
anyone know if lowe is available today?
Lauren, I think you can find one pretty easy in an adult store. Jed C Banned from USSM!
Excuse me..McCall, Idaho has 2,084 people. I find it difficult to believe there can be a traffic problem.
I don’t know. If the M’s were getting mowed down in what was looking like a no-no, I’d be all for one of our guys bunting if the infielders weren’t protecting against it. Getting no-hit is the worst. And if it works it’s likely to rattle the pitcher a little.
175: It’s a big tourist town.
In a low scoring game getting on base is the name of the game. If the third baseman is playing back you should bunt.
#173. Hargrove said (before the game) that he’s still a little sore today. Would like not to have to use him.
I wonder if there’s an Idaho Traffic blog where they are discussing the Mariners game right now.
It’s a big tourist town.
Maybe if both of the tourists are on the road at once.
Gotta let Washburn ride this out, I think, but Gomes scares me here with the high fastaballs.
Why is Washburn still in the game?
nothing against the strategy of bunting to break up a no-no, but you better be willing to pay the price
No, seriously, the road system is at capacity if there are 2,000 people in town, but the population swells to 15-20,000 on any given summer day
Good job Washburn, hello Soriano!
Mmmm, hot Soriano porpoise action.
David
What’s more annoying: Having Mateo in with the game on the line or trying to navigate through your town with all of those extra vehicles?
You want to see how bad traffic can get in Idaho? Look at this:
http://blogidaho.biz/Intersection.mpeg
Basically, we run at 7-10 times the road capacity, and thereis only one main street through town, a two lane road with now traffic control signals, and you MUST stop for peds in crosswalks, and there are a hell of a lot of peds, so it can take 20 minutes to get through town which is only 2 miles
damn those peds.
Mateo in, because I am used to just not making left turns, and I’m a local so I know the backroads.
that may be some of the least convincing evidence i’ve ever seen
so, I was forced to actually work– is it possible to tell if was Washburn really was pitching well, or is Tampa just so demoralized that he was fooling them?
nice work soriano!
189
Man, David BARELY made it through there!
‘well’ being a relative term where Wash is concerned…
haha. That’s not McCall. McCall doesn’t have a McDonald’s.
Let’s just put it this way. The speed limit through town is 25 MPH. I am absolutely delighted when I get to average 15 MPH through town.
those are some boss cars, though, man.
Bunting early in a no-hitter isn’t a big deal. If it were in a blowout game in the 9th, then I would call BS, but not in the 6th of a 2 run game.
And head-hunting is wrong, no matter what the situation. You never purposely (or porpoisely) throw at a guy’s head. Bean him anywhere else you like.
to those watching the game, how close was jones to that ball?
Corco, given the traffic, have any of those people in McCall considered… I dunno… WALKING INSTEAD OF DRIVING? Or even parking away from the city center and walking in? A two mile diameter ain’t that much.
can we talk about the game rather than traffic?
It is a pretty boring game, but 2 on, 1 out, and the best D-Ray hitter up right now in the 8th.
People in Idaho are republicans and don’t walk for anything. Any plenty of people walk, that’s part of the problem is the crosswalks are jam packed full of people and you can’t drive through them.
Me, I enjoy driving just to wreak havoc on tourists by pissing them off.
Speaking of walking… we walk Hollins on 4 pitches to put men on 1st and 2nd with Crawford up next. Arg.
Do you have an old pickup that spews exhaust and is louder than a Harley? Then you could just idle there all day until you run out of gas.
Corco, given the traffic, have any of those people in McCall considered… I dunno… WALKING INSTEAD OF DRIVING? Or even parking away from the city center and walking in? A two mile diameter ain’t that much.
I wonder if this would wind up causing some sort of negative feedback loop that would result, eventually, in the same situation there is right now. Step 1: More people start walking, the traffic situation improves. Step 2: Walkers notice traffic improving, get back in their cars, then the traffic is bad again.
It seems like unless people really want exercise (which I’m certainly not opposed to) the system is eventually going to be driven towards the state where there’s too much car traffic.
that and there is really only one 50 space public parking lot.
I’m a Republican and I walk all the time.
Ohhhh how I missed you those two weeks, Soriano.
Inning over! Soriano’s been a bit “exciting” since coming back from the DL. He’s getting the job done though…
what they need to do is just put a couple stoplights in the middle of town, which would screw up the scenery, and at the very least implement a full suicide lane through town. An incredible amount of traffic is created by cars trying to turn left.
soriano ERA now 1.98
there’s no radar gun on the mlb.tv broadcast. How hard is Soriano throwing? I read he was around 91-92 last time out.
way to make him work ichiro!
If it’s a tourist town, I’m guessing that there is an off-season, right? At least you get some time off from the traffic?
and 208: I drive a 1997 Jeep Wrangler, so I prefer just to blast profane rap music to anger tourists.
ichiro has seen 10 pitches in 4 AB’s today
214
David J. Corcoran for Mayor
“The get the hell out of the way while we drive” platform!
yes, there is an off season. November, December, January, early February, June, July, and August are t he only times it’s bad, so I still have late February, March, April, May, September, and October where it’s not tooo terribly bad.
Do our opponents even bother suiting up their middle relievers?
I can see 10 pitches in 3 AB’s in slow pitch softball, and we start with a 1-1 count. Just a little, tiny bit of patience at the plate maybe?
Sorry all, but the game is just not boring…as you are indicating with your traffic chatter. We’re riding good pitching this last few weeks. Other than Jamie’s homer game… I’d say our staff/pen have done really well lately.
221: It’s gotten to the point where when I see J-Walkers, I yell to them “Use a damn crosswalk, we have enough of those for you! If you try to walk in front of me I will hit you!” or something along those lines.
All I want to do is widen the roads to 4 + suicide between Donnelly and McCall, and then put a full suicide lane in through McCall, add a light at 55 & Railroad, and build tunnels across the streets for peds.
The good pitching by the M’s today has almost masked the poor offense against James “Who the hell are you?” Shields.
For those who may have joined to discuss the baseball game, my sincerest apologies. The problem started, however, because no one in the Boise mtro area (is that an oxymoron?) has ponied up the cash to carry the M’s games on the radiddio.
209 – This may be similar to when people are pro-mass transit and thinking ‘if we could light-rail, then the road wouldn’t be crowded for my commute’
Also, that’s the cool thing about tourist towns, is the voters are locals, so we have imposed ludicrous property taxes on second home owners plus really high hotel taxes.
this game day chat has sucked so far. lol.
Putz in. Game Over.
226
LOL…ya got my vote…if I had one
225
True. The pitching has really carried us lately. But our offense had better pick it up when we go to Texas or it will get ugly.
228: As a former Boisean of 8 years, and a still frequent visitor, It’s just the Boise area, no metro needed, as there are really only 3 suburbs, Meridian, Eagle, and Emmett. Nampa/Caldwell is its own entity.
Porputz!
Ah, BJ Upton, I like him very much. But he no help, with Splitfinger.
Upton just a liiiittle overmatched there.
234
I hear cries of outrage from Kuna.
Ballgame.
No chance whatsoever. Great sweep for the M’s.
Game over! Nice sweep guys, just one series too late.
well this was a horrible chat. I feel dirty. haha
Hey, that was a good game, too.
And see, DMZ, your server can kinda handle traffic discussions!
235
Lauren – props for running with the seagoing mammal thread.
We swept a team! Woot!
Was Zito trying to run the wishbone today against Texas? 14-0…UGLY
Game over.
Can’t believe that 39,856 attendance figure for a D Rays weekday game. Early August timing must be the key.
A 10-pitch save…awesome.
People love to criticize a guy for not seeing a bunch of pitches. Need I remind you that last night Sexson hit the granny on the second pitch? Sure, it’s nice to take a guy deep in the count, but if you see a pitch you think you can drive you have to take a cut at it. And when you do, you’re not going to hit 1.000 on those swings. Sometimes a good hitter will like a pitch early in the count and hack at it and miss — or make an out.
That doesn’t mean he has a bad approach at the plate. It’s just baseball.
If a hitter always took the first two pitches, the scouts would figure that out and he’d start every at bat 0-2.
Ichiro, by the way, is averaging more pitches per plate appearance this year (3.81) than ever before in his career. I don’t think anyone posting here has any basis for criticizing his approach.
You’re correct Ralph, I have just been frustrated with us swinging at the first pitch against guys with a history of missing the strike zone, or pitchers we haven’t seen before.
Take a pitch every once in a while at least!
Ichiro just happened to bring up the subject today, but I don’t think you’ll find many people that want Ichiro to change his appraoch.
I also have questioned what kind of pitches some our hitters “like” lately. I’ve seen some first pitch cuts at balls WELL out of the strike zone.
249
This is true to a degree. And you said GOOD HITTER. We don’t have too many “good hitters” is the main problem. Whatever the philosophy, we walk less than anyone in baseball, so something is clearly wrong with that imho. But you’re right. Just because someone swings early, doesn’t necessarily make it a bad decision. We just have too many outs being made on these “early swing decisions.”
well, back again, and it is all over. man, I hate it when real life interferes with baseball.
“Real life interfering with baseball”
Sounds sort of like an explanation of what happens when we play the A’s
It does sometimes look like our batters have forgotten that it is possible to reach first via the walk.
Great three-game stride for the M’s. Loved how the pitching continued to be as consistent all 9 innings as Washburn only allowed 3 Hits and 1 BB in 6.66 innings. Can’t wait to see how this momentum turns out in Texas.
By the way, I guess I must apologize about that stuff about 150 posts above. Jeez, one day I get offered free beer, the next I am unworthy of posting once in a blue moon.
Living on the edge has it’s risks Dave in PA.. Any regrets? LOL!
255
Sometimes? Like I alluded to earlier…when was the last time we even saw a long reliever pitch against us?
BTW: Corcoran for Mayor ‘06!
For whoever was talking about M’s pitching: true, the bullpen has been outstanding — but in the first four games of this homestand (esp. the three that mattered most) our starters were not good. Better pick it up several notches in Texas . . .
258 Ok, so I referred to middle relievers before…but you get the idea
I agree, and I’m not saying our hitters should all be up there hacking. I very much agree that we should try to get the pitchers deep into counts — which gets you into the bullpen sooner. I just don’t think we should single out Ichiro, or jump on a guy for swinging at the first pitch in a single at bat.
I would be the first guy screaming at the TV when somebody like Willie swings at the first pitch out of the strikezone and pops it out.
By the way, the highest P/PA on the team belongs to…Jamie Moyer with 4.67. Among hitters the highest is Dobbs at 4.22 followed by Sexson at 3.93. Lowest is, surprisingly, Broussard at 3.26.
Wow! Almost 20 posts since the last Idaho traffic discussion! Only time I was in the Boise area, there was a blizzard, so I didn’t notice hardly any traffic on the raod (except my dumb***).
Yeah, indeed it does depend on WHO is doing it. Fwiw, Willie must have had ya screaming SEVERAL times the past few days.
Me too
262
Way to break the streak!
Worst game thread ever.
265 – Makes me think of the comic book guy from the Simpsons!
Worst. thread. ever.
Derek might have one or two others he’d put even behind this one.
The statistical conversation early in this thread, along with other similar trains of thought posted earlier, lead me to the idea that winning in baseball could be a lot like winning in poker.
For whatever hand you are dealt, there is an optimum strategy, but you bet on the percentages and try your damndest to get the right matchup.
Grover doesn’t play baseball management the way top poker players play Texas Hold’m. Grover still bets on losing hands, with either a complete disregard for odds, a complete disregard for opposing strategy, or a sado-masochistic disregard for the fans or his own well-being.
Yah, we won. This rant isn’t necessarily about today’s game. But I just read the ESPN article on Jamie Gold, which reminded me that smart peoople play the odds better. We don’t have the smart people on our side, and it sucks.
My biggest gripes lately have been:
1) Mateo first out of the bullpen, even in a close game
2) Too much WFB, not enough Jones (if you called him up, you should play him!)
It’s not just that Grover disregards the odds. He just has a totally skewed idea of what the odds are. He honestly believes that, when he bunts with a man at 2nd and nobody out in the first inning, he’s playing the percentages.
He also seems to be completely lacking in the ability to see an inning or two ahead. When he runs Jones for Johjima in the 7th inning it doesn’t occur to him to leave Jones in the game to play CF and put Rivera in a different spot in the order. That requires some coherent planning and he’s already moved on to trying to decide when would be the most critical point in the game to insert Mateo.
266
Everyone from Idaho should be banned…
Beltre continues not to suck, Yippie!
We need a 7-2 or better trip to keep the season alive.
270
How about when Grover PHs Dobbs for Rivera and then replaces him Johjima? I guess Dobbers has more PH experence…
That’s only when he’s resting Johjima; it would tire him out too much to PH.
[Pineiro]
I am saying 7
More than my Grandma would.
I love the Mariners post-game callers.
Caller: “The M’s aren’t making moves during the season!”
Host: “What about Perez and Broussard?”
Caller: “I’m talking about in-season moves!”
Host: “…”
Makes you wonder about the callers. They obviously care enough to call, but NOT enough to actually know anything about the team (or the sport, for the most part).
Broussard now 3 for 25 since the trade.
Sparkling. Can he even see the Mendoza Line from there?
I actually just scrolled up hoping to see a bunch of posts that said:
[Discussing traffic in Idaho]
but no such luck.
#279 et al:
I cannot imagine why you would even care about Broussard’s record since the trade, since it’s been what, a week and a half or so?
Sample size, my man. Sample size.
I’d like to see somehow who knows statistics well look at Andy Dolphin’s study. I can guess at reasons that it’s valid or not, but frankly I didn’t feel like sitting down and figuring out his model.
I’ve never been a big fan of pinch-hitting, and for exactly the reason in the box quote: pinch hitters come in cold, and don’t usually do very much. There’s only three reasons to bring in a pinch-hitter: 1) the pitcher on the mound has a hughe L-R differential, and you can bring some one in on his ‘wrong side,’ 2) the guy being hit for hits like a pitcher, usually because he _is_ a pitcher, or 3) the guy coming in to hit has very, very significant power relative to the guy being lifted and the situation really calls for an XB hit. Making a _thoughtful_ substitution can really impact a game; bringing in a guy to pinch run who then goes in as a superior defensive replacement, or pinch hitting with a guy from the other side who is then going to stay in the game for at least another AB late in the game. You know, good managing. But most pinch hitting is done with a lick and a prayer, and changes nothing; it’s reflexive substitution rather than thoughtful. And reflexive actions by the manager aren’t really likely to be that useful; it’s the difference between spotting an advantage and hoping for one.
mntr,
From a strict statistical standpoint Dolphin’s analysis probably has a pretty serious flaw: I think he’s making the faulty assumption that the hitter being replaced would achieve his season (split) wOBA in the pinch-hit situation. In fact, a significant portion of the situations will be “high-leverage” – when the opposing manager ALSO is substituting to gain an advantage. Comparing the performance of pinch hitters in those situations to the replaced player in all non-pinch-hit situations simply is not valid.
I will have to parse his vague description (“completely corrected for everything I can think of”) more closely to determine for sure whether this is the case. Perhaps someone else can confirm this.
I posted a similar note on the Insidethebook blog. Tango seems to think that Andy’s model did adjust for opponent, but no one is sure. It’d be nice if Andy could clear it up, for sure.
Congratulations to Derek Zumsteg Page 2 Columnist. My evil side wanted to post this as a long link so you’d have to delete a link to your own column, but I relented. Good to see you’ve joined such analytical luminaries as Skip Bayless and Gregg Easterbrook .
Folks, there’s your backhanded compliment of the week. Gregg Easterbrook indeed.
Skip Bayless makes Gregg Easterbrook look like Grantland Rice.