Comments on: Game 113, Devil Rays at Mariners

By: revbill

revbill — Thu, 10 Aug 2006 19:28:11 +0000

Skip Bayless makes Gregg Easterbrook look like Grantland Rice.

By: DMZ

DMZ — Thu, 10 Aug 2006 17:55:48 +0000

Folks, there’s your backhanded compliment of the week. Gregg Easterbrook indeed.

By: Mike Lien

Mike Lien — Thu, 10 Aug 2006 17:24:18 +0000

Congratulations to Derek Zumsteg Page 2 Columnist. My evil side wanted to post this as a long link so you'd have to delete a link to your own column, but I relented. Good to see you've joined such analytical luminaries as Skip Bayless and Gregg Easterbrook .

By: Dave

Dave — Thu, 10 Aug 2006 17:23:15 +0000

I posted a similar note on the Insidethebook blog. Tango seems to think that Andy’s model did adjust for opponent, but no one is sure. It’d be nice if Andy could clear it up, for sure.

By: Brian Rust

Brian Rust — Thu, 10 Aug 2006 17:14:33 +0000

mntr,
From a strict statistical standpoint Dolphin’s analysis probably has a pretty serious flaw: I think he’s making the faulty assumption that the hitter being replaced would achieve his season (split) wOBA in the pinch-hit situation. In fact, a significant portion of the situations will be “high-leverage” – when the opposing manager ALSO is substituting to gain an advantage. Comparing the performance of pinch hitters in those situations to the replaced player in all non-pinch-hit situations simply is not valid.

I will have to parse his vague description (“completely corrected for everything I can think of”) more closely to determine for sure whether this is the case. Perhaps someone else can confirm this.

By: BelaXadux

BelaXadux — Thu, 10 Aug 2006 09:55:42 +0000

I’ve never been a big fan of pinch-hitting, and for exactly the reason in the box quote: pinch hitters come in cold, and don’t usually do very much. There’s only three reasons to bring in a pinch-hitter: 1) the pitcher on the mound has a hughe L-R differential, and you can bring some one in on his ‘wrong side,’ 2) the guy being hit for hits like a pitcher, usually because he _is_ a pitcher, or 3) the guy coming in to hit has very, very significant power relative to the guy being lifted and the situation really calls for an XB hit. Making a _thoughtful_ substitution can really impact a game; bringing in a guy to pinch run who then goes in as a superior defensive replacement, or pinch hitting with a guy from the other side who is then going to stay in the game for at least another AB late in the game. You know, good managing. But most pinch hitting is done with a lick and a prayer, and changes nothing; it’s reflexive substitution rather than thoughtful. And reflexive actions by the manager aren’t really likely to be that useful; it’s the difference between spotting an advantage and hoping for one.

By: mntr

mntr — Thu, 10 Aug 2006 08:17:48 +0000

I’d like to see somehow who knows statistics well look at Andy Dolphin’s study. I can guess at reasons that it’s valid or not, but frankly I didn’t feel like sitting down and figuring out his model.

By: Jeff Nye

Jeff Nye — Thu, 10 Aug 2006 01:43:29 +0000

#279 et al:

I cannot imagine why you would even care about Broussard’s record since the trade, since it’s been what, a week and a half or so?

Sample size, my man. Sample size.

By: revbill

revbill — Thu, 10 Aug 2006 00:10:04 +0000

I actually just scrolled up hoping to see a bunch of posts that said:

[Discussing traffic in Idaho]

but no such luck.

By: Thingray

Thingray — Thu, 10 Aug 2006 00:03:35 +0000

Sparkling. Can he even see the Mendoza Line from there?