I really think people are messing around too much with correlations and making dangerous presumptions while doing so. We need to think in terms of individual pitching “skills” (if a pitcher’s show a consistent ability over several years it needs to be considered an individual skill) and adjusting for each specific “environment (parks/defense/etc)” in which those skills are displayed. SABRMatt is doing some unbelievable stuff on this right now – hes approaching the problem the way I would if I had his math skills. I think its something you’d be interested in.

In any case I’d bet that HRs are evaluated differently in the next five years or so.

HR% has a year-to-year correlation of .28. That’s not good. By comparison, BB% has a correlation of .69, and K% has a correlation of .77. Even pretending like HR rate is anything close to predictive as walks and strikeouts are is foolish.

By the way, the correlation for HR% when FB% is removed is .08, which is about as close to random as you’re going to get. You’re not willing to use FB% because it’s not perfect, but the tool that you are using is even worse.

-Even adjusting for park, Washburn’s HR/9 should be higher considering his low BBs, low Ks, and high flyball%. Despite Angel Stadium he should have been experiencing gopheritis according to xFIP. Watching him pitch my reasoning for this is the moving fastball. Unless you see him running 1.3 HR/9 rates in Safeco from here on out as xFIP would predict?

In 2004, Washburn’s park adjusted HR/FB rate was 11.7%. He gave up 20 home runs, when we’d have expected him to give up 19. Guess he didn’t have his cut fastball working that year, even though all his other ratios were right in line with what we’d have expected.

In 2005, his park adjusted HR/FB was 9.8%. He actually gave up 19 home runs. We’d have expected him to give up 21.

In 2006, his park adjusted HR/FB is 9.4%. He’s giving up 16 home runs. We’d have expected him to give up 18.

So, over the course of three seasons, you’re arguing that HR/FB% is incorrect for Jarrod Washburn because it estimated that he would give up 58 home runs, and he actually gave up 55 home runs. 3 homers over the course of 3 years is enough for you to say “see, it was wrong!”. That’s sad.

Seriously, that’s what you are laying your claim too? We wouldn’t expect Washburn to have “gopheritis”, however you want to define that. Washburn is, just like I said, BARELY beating the league average HR/FB rate when adjusted for parks.

I’m sorry you can’t see that you’re wrong on this issue. The evidence is there if you want to see it. Hopefully you will.

xFIP is fine when used as “part” of an argument, but it is far from the perfect formula. It is something that can’t be used alone as evidence for how a pitcher will perform from here on out. In fact I prefer regular old FIP (because it forces you to analyze homeruns allowed through scouting – and make a more educated decision yourself of whether or not it is “luck”).

The chances that a talent like Felix wouldn’t have figured it out are extremely low, yes. The point is that the HR rate that Felix had in the first half was earned, it was not luck. You seem to be conceeding that point. You also seem to be conceeding the fact that there are exceptions to the rule, and that you need analyze both the numbers and the player – and now I’m not even sure what we’re debating about anymore.

As for the smaller debates:

-Even adjusting for park, Washburn’s HR/9 should be higher considering his low BBs, low Ks, and high flyball%. Despite Angel Stadium he should have been experiencing gopheritis according to xFIP. Watching him pitch my reasoning for this is the moving fastball. Unless you see him running 1.3 HR/9 rates in Safeco from here on out as xFIP would predict?

-Have to admit I didn’t follow Weaver much until I saw him pitch this year, but sometimes one or two times is enough. THAT dude is toast unless he gains a weapon or two in his arsenal. He has NO plus pitches and has turned into the Cha Seung Beck/Ryan Franklin mode of here-it-is-hit-it type pitchers. I remember him having a little more zip on his stuff early on, and he had that funky delivery working for him that hitters have now adjusted to. I see very little chance of him bouncing back without a transformation (and in transformation I don’t mean a new release point).

We’ll see what happens but I’ve already written him off as an effective starter.

But the point was that he wasn’t going to continude to do that. That’s the point here. A guy with that good of stuff (which xFIP identifies) isn’t going to continue to throw that many meatballs that get whacked over the fence. It just isn’t going to happen.

He hasn’t for reasons stated by you and Bela above. The hard sinking fastball is key to preventing HRs now, pitch selection will be key when he doesn’t have that pitch. But Felix’s improvement isn’t because xFIP predicted it – this is where scouting analysis has to come in play.

xFIP identified that he had the skills that made it very, very likely that he would improve. You didn’t need scouting analysis for that.

And remember, I’m one of the big proponants of the value of scouting. If you’re trying to paint me into a scouts vs stats debate, you’re barking up the wrong tree.

And as I said before I’m unconvinced that there aren’t exceptions to the rule like there were when McCracken discovered that pitchers had no control over whether balls in play fell for hits. Now of course they’ve discovered that some pitchers DO indeed have some control over balls in play. I imagine the same process is going to happen with HRs allowed.

We’ve already found exceptions. Clemens is the main one. And we’ve noted that extreme FB pitchers tend to give up slightly less HR/FB than extreme GB pitchers, due to the mistake-pitch issue. Why you continue to ignore the fact that we’re conceding those exceptions is beyond me.

Just from a local standpoint, how do you explain Jarrod Washburn?

Park factors. The HR/OF park factor for Edison Field is 90 and its a 95 for Safeco. He’s spent his entire career in parks that depress home runs, and he’s still barely beating the average.

The reason for this is because Jarrod Washburn has a moving fastball that cuts in different directions unpredictably.

Again, unsubstantiated theory. Why do you insist on believing things dogmatically that you have no possible way of knowing whether they’re true or not?

Was Weaver unlucky? Yes. Take away the luck and is he still a terrible pitcher? Yup.

I imagine you called Jeff Weaver terrible in 2003, too, when he posted a 5.99 ERA, correct? Did 2004 and 2005 teach you nothing?

The main issue of our disagreements is that you’re willing to believe things that you cannot factually substantiate, and you’re willing to ignore data that goes counter to those beliefs. That, to me, is mind boggling.

Was Weaver unlucky? Yes. Take away the luck and is he still a terrible pitcher? Yup.

Its proven unrelated to the discussion, but Weaver is finished as an effective starter until he gains a plus pitch, suddenly develops Maddux command, or starts sipping some funky milkshakes. We’re both on record for that one.

The problem with the stat comes when its used dogmatically on a player by player basis.

Felix isn’t preventing homeruns now because xFIP said he was lucky in the the first half. Saying theres potential for more, and noting xFIP as “one” of your arguments is fine. But dismissing homeruns allowed as “unsustainable” fogs the analysis. Had Felix pitched the exact same way with the exact same stuff for the rest of his career he would have continued to have goperitis despite being a groudball pitcher. He hasn’t for reasons stated by you and Bela above. The hard sinking fastball is key to preventing HRs now, pitch selection will be key when he doesn’t have that pitch. But Felix’s improvement isn’t because xFIP predicted it – this is where scouting analysis has to come in play.

And as I said before I’m unconvinced that there aren’t exceptions to the rule like there were when McCracken discovered that pitchers had no control over whether balls in play fell for hits. Now of course they’ve discovered that some pitchers DO indeed have some control over balls in play. I imagine the same process is going to happen with HRs allowed.

Just from a local standpoint, how do you explain Jarrod Washburn? Gives up a ton of flyballs, but has a career league average HR rate despite it. The reason for this is because Jarrod Washburn has a moving fastball that cuts in different directions unpredictably. When he is effective he is throwing his fastball the majority of the time, and HIGH in the zone. Judging from his flyball% and pitching style, he SHOULD be projected for gopheritis EVERY year according to xFIP, but he never does give up a ton of HRS because its relatively hard for hitters to center his fastball. Would you expect 1.3+ HR/9 rates from Washburn for the next three years because xFIP predicts it, or would you just expect the same old league average HR rate hes always had (adjusted slightly for Safeco)?

Let’s see: Brown’s sinker + Pedro’s change-up and curve = what? Helluva package. But what’s missing is the mental part. The nasty, “Mere mortals cannot beat me” part. Brown had it; Pedro has a mountain of it. Randy Johnson for years _didn’t_ have it. All his time in Montreal, and his first years here, RJ lacked confidence on the mound. Then, he had a (what’s the nasty synonym, not antonym, of an epiphany?) change, where he took his always privately nasty attitude with him to the mound—and dominated.

Felix Hernandez is still a 20-year-old kid having the time of his life making more money than he ever dreamed of playing a game. Next year, or the next one, there will be a time when the mental part comes together for Felix; probably after a crisis of some kind, but I don’t know. Now, when things aren’t going well, he falls back on pride; he’s made remarks after some games that add up to that for me. When it comes together, he’ll be looking to _crush_ the other guy before it ever gets to the point of pride. He’ll start out hard. But that part of his game isn’t there yet. That’s OK: I’m enjoying watching the parts of his game that are here, now.

This is the difference in Felix, last year, to this Spring, to now: burying the fastball for the GB out. The guy who came up last year had his monster sinker just buried in the bottom of the zone, with movement, at 95+. He gave up ridiculously few HRs because, basically, nobody could lift his pitch. His K rate wasn’t extraordinary because he was getting so many GBs that he didn’t get to 3-2 that much. And even then, a lot of his Ks came off the change-up or curve.

Felix this Spring wasn’t commanding his sinker; it was up, out, in, sometimes at lower velocity, seldom with that vicious, Kevin Brown-like running movement down in the zone. When he came up in the zone with the pitch with the hitters sitting on dead red—and too often they were sitting on it because of bad pitch selection by the Ms to ‘establish the fastball’—ridiculous numbers of the FBs hit off him went over the fence. But that fits the ‘GB pitcher profile’ as you say: pitches up by a sinkerballer are mistakes by definiton, and mistakes tend to end up in the seats, especially mistakes in a zone where the hitter is looking for them.

Now, come July, Felix has finally gotten his arm loose, and his natural motion is giving him that wicked running sink again on the fastball. Yes, better pitch selection is making an impact, and will certainly be important in his development as a pitcher. The return of his ‘unliftable’ sinker is all the difference. I’m looking for Felix to run off another stretch through August like he did a year ago, maybe not quite as dominant, but with a very similar game result.

The four-seam fastball that Felix throws is extremely straight and that is the pitch he used to go to when behind in the count. During the last start it almost seemed like Chaves told him to stop throwing it (basically telling him to actually work on the command of the other fastball he can’t locate). And I think this is a wise move. He may have games where he walks 3-6 hitters but he has to improve sometime. I think he got away with four-seam fastball at 96 on 2-0 counts in the minor leagues and it’s just not working anymore.