Leadership deceived
“I felt like if Mateo came in and threw the way he can that we’d have a chance of getting a ground ball,” Hargrove said. “It just didn’t work.”
Julio Mateo’s groundball percentage is 24.2%. There are exactly two major league pitchers with a lower GB% than Mateo this season; Keith Foulke, who has spent most of the season on the DL because he was unable to pitch effectively, and Chuck James, a rookie starting pitcher who has an ERA of 4.69 in the National League.
And I’m sure the response from Hargrove would be something like “he’s throwing the ball better lately”, due to the slightly altered arm slot that they worked on. Thankfully, we have game logs, so we can know if Recent Mateo is any more likely to get a groundball than Yearlong Mateo.
August 1st: 5 batters faced, 0 groundballs
August 4th: 2 batters faced, 0 groundballs
August 7th: 6 batters faced, 1 groundball
August 8th: 4 batters faced, 0 groundballs
Julio Mateo had faced 17 batters since they altered his mechanics and he had started “throwing better”. In that time, he has induced one ground ball. After last night’s performance, he’s now faced 21 batters in August and has a 5% groundball rate.
There isn’t a pitcher on an American League roster right now that is less likely to get a groundball than Julio Mateo.
This post isn’t about taking Mike Hargrove to task for a difference in philosophy. This is an indictment on his ignorance of the skills of his players. I guarantee you that Mike Hargrove does not know that Julio Mateo is the absolute worst choice in the entire league if your hope is to get a ground ball.
He’s managing the club based on bad information. He’s making critical decisions while lacking basic, publically available information that even fans who follow the team know.
We’ve documented the problems with Hargrove’s in game strategies before, so I won’t document those again. But man, I have no idea how a guy who is using fundamentally, tangibly incorrect ideas to make pitching decisions still has a job.
93 – That’s oversimplifying a little bit. As the USSMariner boys have noted before, Bavasi isn’t the top of the pyramid. He does not operate in a vacuum… there are people above and below him that influence the decisions he makes.
I admit I oversimplified. It’s almost impossible not to. And I agree that Bavasi does not work in a vacuum. That’s why I concluded with the opinion that ownership needs to rethink the way it operates. It isn’t just Bavasi, and, for all I know, it might not be Bavasi that’s the root of the problem at all. It is clear to me, though, that there is a deep-rooted problem in the Ms organization, vis a vis building a team that will win for an extended period, that cannot be addressed AT ALL by firing Hargrove. If anything, firing Hargrove will further retard progress in the organization by giving the appearance of progress while accomplishing nothing.
– Trade future for Perez
– Trade future for Broussard
Um, that’s what ANY GM does; these moves are in NO way a negative.
I believe Dave would agree that we gave up way too much for Perez. As to the Broussard deal, I might be alone in thinking this way, but… Broussard is 30 year-old 1B/DH that mashes righties. How many friggin 1B/DH types do we need? Ibanez, Everett, Sexson, Broussard, Perez, Petagine, Dobbs… Does Bavasi not understand that you don’t *have* to be a slug to DH? Choo is a 24-year good corner outfielder, who can play CF in a pinch, who mashes righties. Why give that up?
Apparently I don’t understand how to use the italics tag.
Apologies
I believe Dave would agree that we gave up way too much for Perez. As to the Broussard deal, I might be alone in thinking this way, but… Broussard is 30 year-old 1B/DH that mashes righties. How many friggin 1B/DH types do we need? Ibanez, Everett, Sexson, Broussard, Perez, Petagine, Dobbs… Does Bavasi not understand that you don’t *have* to be a slug to DH? Choo is a 24-year good corner outfielder, who can play CF in a pinch, who mashes righties. Why give that up?
I can understand that you feel we got too little for Cabrera. On the other hand, he was being blocked with little chance for advancement. Bavasi definitely did the right thing in trading him before he rotted in the farm system and lost his value.
Same with Choo; he was blocked at his postion and was traded before he lost his value by being lost in the farm system.
And do YOU understand that for THIS club, DH is the place where we can add slugging power?
I disagree about Bavasi. The distinction here is this:
We could spend all day weighing the good and the bad about Bavasi. Short term, long term, minors, majors, how much is bad luck, how much is his idea, how much isn’t… there is no definitive answer on whether Bavasi is debit… or how much of one.
Hargrove, on the other hand, is without question bad at his job. And while managers in general have less impact on their clubs than most would think, he specifically has had a much bigger impact on the games from day one. He has hurt this team badly. And in a division only a few games apart, he has quite possibly been the difference.
Basically, we know for a fact that Hargrove has been bad. Bavasi is murkier.
Anybody but Grover or Dusty Baker. I don’t need Baker in charge of Felix Hernandez. No, no, no.
Don “The guy who ruined Kerry Wood before Dusty had his shot” Baylor is available.
#103– and Bavasi implied Choo was losing value; that they had fewer calls about him this year than last….
Hargrove’s bad, m-kay….
Does anybody really believe that Choo will continue to hit like he has in Cleveland? If I’m not mistaken, we’ve seen two perfect examples of this situation in the past two years (see Mike Morse and Jeremy Reed).
What I don’t understand is why bring in Mateo? Why not just take the team off the field at that point, and at least avoid the risk of injury?
I believe Dave would agree that we gave up way too much for Perez. As to the Broussard deal, I might be alone in thinking this way, but… Broussard is 30 year-old 1B/DH that mashes righties. How many friggin 1B/DH types do we need? Ibanez, Everett, Sexson, Broussard, Perez, Petagine, Dobbs… Does Bavasi not understand that you don’t *have* to be a slug to DH? Choo is a 24-year good corner outfielder, who can play CF in a pinch, who mashes righties. Why give that up?
We paid too high a price for Perez, yes.
But as for the rest of the points? Everett’s gone, so I don’t know why’d you include him in the list. Petagine is 35, and he’s never hit in the majors. Dobbs is terrible. These guys are not major league caliber DH’s going forward. So, you’re arguing that we shouldn’t have acquired Broussard to DH because we had Ibanez in LF and Sexson at 1B? Really, you think that’s a logjam?
Choo’s not a corner outfielder, and he’s an abomination in center. He’s a guy with no defensive value who can only hit RHP’s, and isn’t going to hit for enough power to be a major league regular. If all goes well for Choo, he’ll turn into Ben Broussard. And because he’s a LH hitter, his future role (fourth outfielder) wasn’t going to happen here, since all the players he’d be backing up are also LH hitters.
#108 – Exactly. Do the 36 AB in Cleveland batting .417 have greater weight than his previous 29 AB with the M’s where he batted well under .100? It’s obvious that somewhere in the middle lies the truth.
Once again we come back to small sample size theater..
I managed to hack into the M’s computer system and look what I found:
To: Mike (humanraindelay@seattlemariners.com)
From: Bill (myheadisincrediblylong@seattlemariners.com)
RE: ground ball tendencies
Mike, just wanted to remind you we’re spending a bunch of money –well, OK, not really all that much money, not considering how much we wasted on C-Rex 🙂 lol — on this Olkin guy who can crunch whatever numbers you might want. The other day, just for fun, I had him run some numbers on how many ground balls different pitchers get, and you might be amazed at his results!!!!
Turns out Mateo almost never gets guys to hit ground balls. Funny, you’d figure guys like him who don’t throw that hard get ground balls, but Olkin says it’s all in the numbers. Anyhoo, thought I’d send along this chart in case you want to look at it before the next time you’re looking for a double play.
By the way, we didn’t bring that Jones kid up so he could sit on the bench, so would you mind getting him a few more at bats? Otherwise I’ll have to trade him for another first baseman. lol
Also, lets not forget how instrumental Hargrove was in making sure Everett was the guy Bavasi signed. Bavasi is guilty too, of course, but a big part of that was Hargrove. I don’t know how many more Washburn/Spezio/Aurilia type signings to expect from him, but hopefully his love affair with washed up Angels is over. Besides, if the rest of the front office is obsessed with Schmidt and maybe Matsuzaka, well, Bavasi might pay them too much, but he’s not going to sign the wrong guys this time.
As for Choo, I agree he was probably losing value. I certainly sensed that from my admittedly unknowledgable position. He’s a useful piece for Cleveland, and I think that the trade was good for both sides. Except that Ibañez should also be the power-hitting LH part of a DH platoon, but it seems like the Mariners would be pretty reluctant to platoon him, however much he deserves it.
What I don’t really understand is all of this talk of mortgaging the future and such. We don’t really need a lot of position players close to the majors in our farm system. If we can get legit major-league talent for guys like Cabrera and Choo, that’s good. I was sad to see Cabrera go, but it is what it is. If Jones or Clement went, that’s mortaging the future. The rest? Role players, probably. Maybe not Cabrera, but who knows?
We don’t know how good Benuardo will really perform next year, but if it’s anything close to this year’s aggregate numbers, that could be a huge part of our playoff hopes. It kind of leaves Snelling out in the cold unless we trade Sexson, but I wouldn’t mind seeing Snelling as a 4th OFer, alternate DH, and 1st bat off the bench. I think he’d excel in that role. I’d rather trade Sexson, especially if we could actually get some talent for him, but it’s also scary to pencil in Snelling as a starter at a position without a backup plan.
We have an impressive, impressive young core. If Jones continues to develop quickly, and Clement can stick at catcher, we have great talent up the middle for years to come. The future folks talk about mortaging is mostly up and playing for the club, so sit back and enjoy 2007 and beyond. That’s my opinion anyway.
Does anybody really believe that Choo will continue to hit like he has in Cleveland? If I’m not mistaken, we’ve seen two perfect examples of this situation in the past two years (see Mike Morse and Jeremy Reed).
Of course no one believes Choo’s going to keep batting .400 for Cleveland. But he did put up a 1.000+ OPS against righties this year in AAA, and he’s continued to mash righties in the majors. Taking into account defense, I’d straight-up, right now, rather have Choo in LF and Ibanez at DH than Ibanez in LF and Broussard at DH, and that ignores the fact that Choo is 24 (i.e. on an upward trajectory) and Broussard is 30 (i.e. likely on downward trajectory).
CCW, you must think more highly of Choo than I do. I think he is a AAAA hitter, and a AA corner outfielder. He may stick as a fourth outfielder with Clevland for a while, but I will be surprised if he becomes anything more than that. But I wish the kid luck!
OK, Choo looks shaky in the OF but he has good speed and a cannon for an arm. Isn’t there room for him to grow into a good defensive outfielder?
I wonder about that. I’ve watched him for a few years, and it’s always bothered me that he takes horrible routes to the ball.
That being said, he did make the “top plays” on BBTN last night or the night before.
#103– and Bavasi implied Choo was losing value; that they had fewer calls about him this year than last….
I think that’s relevant information (and usually stuff the GM has more info on than fans). But it also could be seen from the cold hard facts of time…a 24 yearold minor league who can’t bust into the big leauges loses value every month he languishes in the minors…
We could spend all day weighing the good and the bad about Bavasi. Short term, long term, minors, majors, how much is bad luck, how much is his idea, how much isn’t… there is no definitive answer on whether Bavasi is debit… or how much of one.
Well, I think it’s a lot more split (and I land more on the side of mediocre, with strengths that somewhat overshadow his weaknesses). But you’re right that Hargrove is clearly doing poorly (and may behind some of the more bizarre roster decisions—Bavasi may have given him a free hand (within reason) so he can say that he was given a fair shake with the people Grover wanted).
The reason a guy takes a horrible route is because he’s misjudging the ball, of course. Unless he has poor depth perception or some other kind of problem with his eyesight — which is certainly possible — he should be able to get better at that if he spends an hour a day taking fly balls in the outfield. Maybe spend a month in the offseason doing nothing but taking fly balls.
Admittedly, some guys just don’t have the vision to be able to do it. But I do think it’s something you can get better at with hard work.
Choo might be a better choice than Broussard as the DH. But would he have gotten a shot with Grover? He sure go shot out of here in a hurry after only a few attempts….
Hasn’t Choo been an outfielder for his entire minor league career though? You would think that after six years of doing nothing but chasing fly balls in the minors, he would be better at judging them than Adam Jones (who also has a cannon, but has only been playing CF for what, a year now?).
I’m beyond being angry. Fuck Hargrove as the manager of the team I follow as a fan. And fuck the management that didn’t can him before the Texas sweep, when ANYONE ELSE might have turned up the Division crown.
Anyone here have any “inside” info on the players’ opinion of this clown? I cannot imagine ANYONE has the least trust in his abilities, or is able to play up to their potential under his command.
What a waste of opportunity this season has been!!!!!!!
Don’t anybody tell pinball1973 where Hargrove lives! LOL!
But as for the rest of the points? Everett’s gone, so I don’t know why’d you include him in the list. Petagine is 35, and he’s never hit in the majors. Dobbs is terrible. These guys are not major league caliber DH’s going forward. So, you’re arguing that we shouldn’t have acquired Broussard to DH because we had Ibanez in LF and Sexson at 1B? Really, you think that’s a logjam?
My point was that Bavasi continues to give up valuable commodities (prospects or money) for mediocre hitters at the wrong end of the defensive spectrum. He has committed to 3 guys who really shouldn’t be play any position other than 1B. That’s poor roster construction, in general, but especially so for a team that should be building for the future.
Ibanez is not a good 1B.. I’m not saying he’s a great lf, but at least out there he has an accurate and (fairly) strong arm that he can make use of.
(LF)
Again, in a hypothetical nirvana, I’d like to see a manager brought in with the understanding that his job was to motivate, nurture, and lead the players, and he’d have a right-hand man who was responsible for tactical moves and optimized roster handling. People Manager would run interference to the players for decisions made by Idea Manager, and hopefully, everyone would get along well.
Isn’t that how Joe Torre and Don Zimmer used to work together for the Yankees? Torre puts the Zen face on Zimmer’s technical expertise, since everybody knows Zimmer is the hot hand with game strategy and tactics, but he’s too abrasive to manage himself.
Mike “Milquetoast” Hargrove:
“A lot of positive came out of bringing Mateo in to face Michael Young. I thought Julio really competed well on that pitch he hung. And Raul did a nice job of digging that ball out of the corner and holding Young to a double. There’s a lot of good we can take out of this.”
I just wonder how that relay got past Kenji. It sure looked like he could have knocked it down (even though it was a bad throw, up the line). Did anyone notice if it took a funny hop, or what happened?
I wonder: Surely our own Mariners position players know the M’s pitchers enough to know which ones are GB pitchers and which ones are FB pitchers, and which are one unto themselves (Moyer)? If any of them were watching that post-game interview by Grover, I’ll bet there were a few #%@&*@ comments in the clubhouse…
Hmmm. This may be one instance where it might be advantageous to let the inmates run the asylum for the next 6 weeks. Heck, name Ichiro interim manager.
[/gentle sarcasm]
Hey! I qualified my white-hot hatred of Hargrove AS THE MANAGER OF THE MARINERS only! I recall rather liking him as a player, with all that “Human Rain-Delay” stuff.
Oh, and besides my astonishment at Bavasi (presumeably) keeping the Clown in full costume, I only mildly distrust him running the FO, and have found many things to like about him. I don’t think he will ever put together a World Series team, here or elsewhere, though.
Okay, you had me worried there for a minute pinball1973..
You sounded like I did when I blew a gasket about Bloomquist a week or two ago! Port Orchard was scared that day, I tell you.. 🙂
Still, Grover will be the cause of me drinking many beers tonight!
#103 – funny stuff. It cracked me up to think of Bavasi slipping in all those “lol”s…
Re: #34, splitting the manager’s job responsibilities into two jobs: Dave, that’s an _excellent_ idea, one of the first really innovative ideas in baseball organization that I’ve heard in years. Particularly in the way that you present it, leadership in one position, strategy in another. If we accept as we do now that pitching is a special responsibility which should have a dedicated coach, and that hitting is a special responsibility which should have a dedicated coach, it’s but a small leap to accept that tactics and substitutions are together a special responsibility which should have a dedicated coach.
It’s so ingrained in baseball tradition that ‘The Leader’ makes the tactical and strategic decisions that it’s hard to see that management in general would be better if he handed those off. The real and essential function of The Manager in the present day context is actually morale, man management, discipline, and above all ego management. Sixty years ago, baseball players were working class stiffs who could be told what to do or replaced (supposedly); now, they’re super-rich, super-famous celebrities around whose _personal_ names and personas many million dollar sports corporations have leveraged there profit-making strategies. The manager’s real responsilities are to build team and manage his people, and good manager’s are often fairly good at this. Finding one of those guys who’s also a shrewd tactitician is a pretty tough call, especially since most managers are former ballplayers without a broadbased background in information management or data analysis. Turning the bench coach into someone with actual tactical responsibility while having the manager be a team exec is A Really Good Idea. Hmmmm.
And I agree, in the offseason the Ms will go shopping for a marketable name to replace Hargrove. That’s how they operate, and why they got _him_.
And yes, that was how Torre and Zimmer worked it, and just another good example of how and why Torre was and is an outstanding manager. By the time the Yanks gave him the hat, he had his ego under control, farmed out subtantial responsibilites entirely to able subordinates like his pitching coach, and concentrated on personnel management.
And re: Bill Bavasi, as I understood the deals this season Bavasi made the Perez deal, but Pelekoudas negotiated the Broussard deal. Now that was from hints in the paper and such, and I don’t know that I’d weight the info too much since obviously they discussed together what was done, but . . . One deal was good and reasonable, and one wasn’t. As throughout nearly his whole career, Bavasi’s name is attached to the deal that wasn’t.
I’m probably almost as tired saying that as Bill B. is hearing it, supposing that he hears it at all.
Playing time, honest explanations, and accountability are what players look to in their team exec. If a manager was totally clueless and demonstrably uninvolved in in-game decisions, it would hurt, but that would be a clumsy wat to handle it. The manager and his tactician should confer just like the manager and his pitching coach do now, but the tactitian then executes the call or substitution. In the end, the tactitian and the coach are both accountable to the manager. Not a problem. But the two coaches would have to be able to work together, otherwise it’s Dysfunction Junction. A manager and his hitting coach can survive not being on speaking terms, but I wouldn’t see two roles this close as playing that way. Still, a really interesting idea.
At least David Andriesen of the P-I gets it — this from his Mariner Notebook in Saturday’s paper (he probably reads USSM):
“In a one-run game, the Mariners needed a double-play grounder to end the seventh inning, and instead got a three-run Michael Young double on Mateo’s first pitch. Mateo wasn’t terribly likely to get the rescue ground ball — he has one of the lowest ground ball ratios in the American League — but the two pitchers Hargrove would rather have used were unavailable.”
Mateo wasn’t terribly likely…
Bob Melvin gave much better post game interviews than Mike Hargrove. Losing under Melvin didn’t hurt as much because Bob was such a nice guy you couldn’t help but like him. For some reason Mike Hargrove just makes me mad as hell.
I have added my light to the glowing firmament of this discussion.
Just looking at the fangraph data, he’s basically always been an extreme flyball pitcher. Interestingly, his HR/FB has always been at least league average or like this year, significantly lower than league average (I guess thats expected for a reliever). Basically just looking at his rate stats, the only thing that jumps out is a career high LD% of 25 which seem to be at the expense of his GB%. I guess I’m struggling to translate the rate stats into his awfulness if you just had the blind data without the nightly visual info. Is the LD%-GB% flip-flop enough to signal this guy is a a pile of kindling this year versus say 2003? I suppose if his K% and BB% were also shown, they’d reflect trends in the wrong direction too.
Is it as simple as he is striking out less and walking more so he’s struggling with command/velocity and this is translating into more hits (line drives)? This would conform with the BB>K>GO/FO theory of pitching. If so though, why aren’t more balls leaving the yard?
Finally, on the field, what is going on? Is everything basically slow and straight?
I know these are naive questions but they are honest ones.
Of ya, one final dumb question…. where can I find league average for all of the rate stats?