Game 131, Angels at Mariners
Julio Mateo is out for the season with a broken left-hand. The Mariners have purchased the contract of Jon Huber from Tacoma, adding him to both the 25 man and 40 man rosters. He has had a very good year for the Rainiers, but has marginal, Mateo like stuff. He’s not part of the future here, but the M’s are just swapping out one replacement level reliever for another.
Escobar vs Hernandez, 7:05 pm. Feliz Dia de Felix!
I’m surprised no one has mentioned this in the local media, but the Mariners have lost 20 consecutive games to AL West opponents. If the M’s are going to break that streak, they’re going to have to do so against a quality pitcher and a line-up that is significantly better than it was earlier in the year. With the addition of Howie Kendrick and the realization that Juan Rivera is an everyday player, the Angels offense has improved tremendously since the last time the Angels rolled into town. They’re no longer Vlad and the eight dwarves.
Escobar, meanwhile, is a lot like Current Felix – inconsistent command leads to bouts of wildness, but high strikeout rate keeps runners from scoring and he’s generally effective. Either one has the ability to toss a shutout tonight, though with the M’s running out a line-up including Doyle hitting second, the M’s aren’t nearly as likely to go down helplessly as they were before his arrival.
This could be a fun game. The M’s just got to put an end to Boston’s season over the weekend, and now they have a chance to do that to the Angels as well.
Great line-up 1-8:
#9: Bloomquist, SS
Seriously, Felix is pitching, Mr. Ground Ball, and you give Betancourt a night off? Just insane.
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Hopefully Felix turns it around tonight. In other news, the bat tosser himself, Delmon Young, was called up by the Rays. He’ll debut tomorrow against the White Sox.
To bad Hardgrove could not have dropped the weight on his….. what ever to put him out for the year.
Julio Mateo is out for the season with a broken left-hand.
Are we sure Humpty-Dumpty wasn’t pushed?
It does seem kind of odd that a weight just happened to drop on his hand… I’m trying to imagine a scenario of how this could happen. Maybe someone really got annoyed with his vulturing of wins.
Who the hell let Mateo into the weight room anyway?
Maybe someone really got annoyed with his vulturing of wins.
Put out an APB for Jarrod Washburn…
All of this hype for KING Felix is totally ludicris. This guy is so over-hyped that anything less than a 30 win season would be considered a failure. He is NOT the greatest young phenom in the A.L. Hell he is not even the best phenom in his own division(Jared Weaver) plus he is not the best phenom on his own team(Lowe). I smell nothing but mediocrity coming out of his kingdom. They should trade him now and get some great prospects while there is still time. Besides that go M’s.
Yikes. Rex Hudler is certainly in character.
Hudler needs to back off the caffine.
Hmm..seems the trolls are going to be out in force tonight.
Rex Hudler is on the pregame show, and I am progressively becoming dumber as I listen to him. I don’t know who the first person was to use the word assclown to describe a person, but I’m pretty sure they had folks like Rex Hudler in mind.
#7: tard.
11- yeah I feel like I’m a few IQ points lower than when I started watching…
7
Yeah, it’s so painfull obvious that first seasons mean everything. Felix really needs to go. As we all know, Cal Eldred was a much better pitcher than Roger Clemens.
how mature 12
enlighten me to some of your baseball wisdom.
#11: now that you mention it, assclown seems immensely appropriate.
#15: if you provide something of intelligence to debate, let me know.
I was fleeing Rex, and changed the channel just in time to see heartbroken 12-year olds as the LLWS championship game came to an end. Reason no. 1 that I hate the overblown coverage of that event.
They say he dropped it on his own hand, but I did wonder if that might be the only way that Bill could stop Mike from bringing him into games
I smell nothing but mediocrity coming out of his kingdom. They should trade him now and get some great prospects while there is still time.
um. if he is so overrated & mediocre, how are you going to get some great prospects for him?
7: King Felix’s xFIP is 3.70, according to LL. He’s good. Maybe they should package Ichiro with him in that trade you’re talking about [end sarcasm].
For the love of GOD is it fucking possible to have ALL your damn regulars in the lineup at the same DAMN TIME?! SHIT! If I was standing next to Hargrove while exchanging lineups, I’d beat him with a big ass stick!
….Runs off angry looking for a stick….
Don’t feed the trolls, people. Either give them a well written response for why they’re wrong, or more effectively, ignore them.
first person was to use the word assclown to describe a person
I’m not sure either. My first exposure to the term was in Office Space re: Michael Bolton.
I’m bummed that Huber isn’t wearing a single digit number.
20
I’m pretty much resigned to fact that Hargrove *needs* to play Bloomquist *somewhere,* as long as he’s not hitting second and playing right field I think we should consider ourselves lucky under the circumstances.
Chimera- What has Felix showed you this year that would make you think his is a “great” pitcher. It certainly cant be his record. He does have good stuff, but that doesn’t always mean W’s. Deep down we all know its true- great stuff cant win. Please respond with maturity and insight.
24 I wish we had Mark McLemore circa 2001
25: A pitcher’s record is a terrible way to determine success. For instance, in 2000 and 2005, Roger Clemens had a 13-8 record. In 2000 his ERA was 3.70 and in 2005 his ERA was 1.87.
I don’t like playing Bloomquist here, but Hargrove is finally doing what he should have done more often earlier in the season–give people like Betancourt the occasional day off. I thought Yuni really was wearing down during the 11-game journey to hell and it cost the team some with a few extra errors. He is hitting well and Felix is on the mound, but I’m sure he could use the rest. Another test for Hargrove will be what he does late in the game if the Mariners have the lead. Will he make the defensive substitution then? And hey, there is some progress: Bloomquist isn’t in the No. 2 spot anymore.
Of course, given that beating an AL West team has taken on World Series Game 7-type importance for this team, maybe this indeed is not the right night to sit Betancourt.
#25 – I didn’t say he is a “great” pitcher. He is not yet, however he is still young, if not very young, and assuming his arm doesn’t blow out… he will almost certainly one day become a great pitcher. That is his value. Not today, but tomorrow.
Man, swap out Bloomer, insert Yuni, and I LOVE that lineup for next year vs RHP.
25
Most guys Felix’s age are toiling in A-Ball, or pitching in college. Felix is doing a respectable job in the MAJORS. As Felix matures and learns to pitch, his stuff will makes him absolutely deadly. You can’t honestly tell me that there is no room for improvement.
I’m glad Mateo’s hurt, I have much more confidence now. Plus since we beat Curt Schilling I know they can beat Escobar.
That Burger King commercial with Drew Rosenhaus in it is the first one of its commercial’s with The King in it that wasn’t funny.
I absolutley agree with all of you, but i guess i am just pessimistic. Being a fan of this team for so long you begin to judge whats good even if it is right in front of you. Thank you for your insight it helps to make a better opinion of felix.
#22– ahh, Michael Bolton, played by the fabulously talented David Herman. Some say assclown came from Chris Jericho, though that I can not verify. And of course, assclowns are not to be confused with the assbatts often wielded by the Mariner hitters.
#33– I find that particular King to be very frightening.
What has Felix showed you this year that would make you think his is a “great” pitcher.
pabloethegreat already posted his xFIP: 3.70. Jered Weaver’s? 4.51.
At 20, he’s seventh in the AL in xFIP. He’s also eighth in K’s.
No, he’s not a world-beater yet, but he has a real future if he can learn to pitch.
Deep down we all know its true- great stuff cant win.
That’s so far from true that you’d need to go through customs in JFK and still have to change planes again in DFW to get back to true.
I saw Office Space in the theaters (Pacific Place, in fact). I thought it was a documentary about the dotcom I worked at.
Adrian Beltre can pick it.
Beltre!! Nice throw. He has made that play so many times this year.
25. There is a very convenient search function on this site. You could search there for some of Dave’s close analysis of Felix this season, including a recent post that shows that he’s been better than his ERA suggests. Also, if you are willing to go back in time, there are some very good analyses detailing Felix’s combination of skills (high combinded groundball and strikeout tendencies) and potential (physically, he’s a great specimen and if the mental stuff clicks in, look out) that got everybody excited in the first place. He still has the skills and the potential and no combination of other team’s “prospects” can compete with what Hernandez seems to be capable of doing. If last year’s performance didn’t buy him even a year of growing pains in your book, I don’t know what would.
And if you like victories as a measure of a pitcher, he is the Mariners’ top winner this year with a winning percentage nearly the equal of the team’s overall. Why not call for shipping out the other guys who’ve contributed to the middling record? Why get rid of the kid who has so much more potential?
35 and other interested parties: here is the most famous use of the word assclown. Enjoy.
#33 – I felt just the opposite after seeing that commercial. That is the first commerical in the “King” series that has been funny and not flat out creepy ie the King Kong commercials.
I’m sorry for Mateo, but I’m glad. He’s looked like his shoulder has been a problem all year, and now by default he’s shut down. That’s probably for the best. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him bounce back, relatively speaking, next year, either.
damn bloomquist. Nice job by Sexson to save that play.
Dude, search this site for Dave’s comments regarding Felix. There is PLENTY of information out there to explain why he is King Felix and will continue to be King Felix.
If you’re not willing to seek out the information, then take your ill informed comments elsewhere.
TIA
Okay. No excuse for WFB at short. Good play by Sexson.
That was a brutal slider there. Vlad thought he had that one parked in the Qwest Field garage.
Yuni makes that play.
Yuni needed a day off, but man you really appreciate his D after seeing Boom Boom almost blowing that one.
“Why should I change? He’s the one who sucks.”
Classic.
Wow, that so-mo camera kicks ass– Finally, an FSN toy worth using.
I know, Willie thought Hargrove had given Richie a day off by putting Mouhamed Sene over there at first.
Anyone know how to get the smell of beer out of carpet? I accidentally tipped one over and now it reeks of brewery in here.
49. I like it. I wonder what Sene’s reach is. No problem dunking flat-footed, I believe.
50: I don’t see the problem with your predicament.
Mmmm brewery
Felix is 20. As others have said, there aren’t many comperables to kids with his kind of stuff breaking into the majors as teenagers, and the few their are (hello, Doc) give you pause. How good was Clemens at 20, or Johnson, or Schilling, or Koufax or… well, you see where this is going. Yeah, there’s been a bit of hype about the kid, with this blog leading the chorus. And sure, it’s premature if you focus entirely on greatness to mean “mature pitcher who knows his stuff and consistently wins games.” Because that’s not who Felix is, yet. It’s his stuff, and his age, that led to the hype. Taken in the context of “here’s a kid who’s pitching way beyond his years, with tremendous stuff, and just imagine what kind of a pitcher he’s going to turn into” the hype is justified (though always with the usual caveats, of course — again, see Doc, or Koufax too for that matter). But the hype doesn’t take away from what he is — and that’s the kind of talent you build a rotation around. You don’t trade that away.
#51 they claim his wingspan is 7′9″…
well, that was an unimpressive offensive inning.
50 – I’ve heard its best to have a friend pee on your leg…. oh wait.
#50 – if it is bud or miller you’re on your own.
Anyone know how to get the smell of beer out of carpet?
Put some greek letters up on the front of your place and it will have exactly the aroma everyone expects.
Ground Ball Machine. That’s one reason why he’s King Felix.
Speaking of kids Felix’s age toiling in the low minors, Andrew Miller was called up to Detroit today — from the Florida State League.
I don’t like the two senate candidates. They both annoy the hell out of me. Cantwell is a shill for the people out to destroy fair use. McGavick canned a lot of people I knew from Safeco, including my next-door neighbor.
Can’t we get some sports hero to run like they do in Oklahoma?
That was a Felix inning right there.
I believe that is seven batters, six ground balls for Hernandez.
50: I don’t see the problem with your predicament.
1. My beer is on the floor and not in my stomach.
2. My teetotaling MIL will be coming into town later this week.
3. It really does reek of stale beer.
4. Did I mention that the beer is not in my stomach?
“That baby has a chance to fly… right into the hands of left fielder Juan Rivera.”
Classic.
Oh my god, for the sake of humanity, his MIL will be in town, somebody help the man!
Meanwhile, the Mariners have forced Escobar to throw all of 12 pitches to get five outs.
http://www.vinegarbook.co.uk/Remove_a_Beer_stain_with_vinegar.shtml
Back to Baseball, Escobar looks like a clown wearing those glasses, and being a memeber of the Angels, he is an ass. Can we classify him as an “assclown”?
1) if you have a dirt devil steam cleaner, use that first 2) if you don’t go to the store and rent one of those steam cleaners 3) go to Petco and get this stuff called “Nature’s Miracle.” When the steam cleaning is completely dry, spray the nature’s miracle all over the area. It’s an enzyme thing. Takes the odor away. Steam cleaning alone won’t do it but it will get the bulk of the old beer up.
Sincerely,
Heloise
Spill some coffee on it. That will sober it up, but you may have to pick up the carpet and walk it around the room for a while. And expect it to be in a very bad mood tomorrow.
60. miller has a contract that requires his call-up
Mmmmmmm, steamed beer….
Ferbreeze.
Nice lineup, but if Escobar is going to throw only 9 pitches per inning, Felix doesn’t have much room for error.
60: At least your Representative in the U.S. House isn’t an attempted rapist. I would take the person who is “a shill for the people out to destroy fair use” over the attempted rapist any day of the week.
Yuni would have saved that throw.
“That’s what I meant, Bloomquist” – Dave Niehaus
Hey Bloomquist, get the fuck out of the way of the baseball players.
You’re too small to go to the Super Bowl, Willie!
I know everyone love to hate on Julio Mateo, I’m just not sure why. Certainly he has had a horrible year and July was the worst of them. Yet, his career numbers clearly show effectiveness as a middle reliever, when used properly.
2003
era 3.15 whip 0.96 baa .220
2004
era 4.68 whip 1.25 baa .251
2005
era 3.06 whip 1.09 baa .237
His era in 2004 was high, but his whip and baa suggest he may have also experienced some hard luck that year. His BB and hits are definitely up this year. But this is also a man who experienced a loss in the family just before the begining of the season, compounded with a shoulder injury. I don’t know how long something like that lingers or how much effect it had on him. He certainly struggled to get back into form.
Though, minus one outing in Texas, Mateo had put together a solid August. Allowing 1 run in 12 inn. and a 1.08 whip.
remember all that trouble Meche was having with the mound in Oakland? There was just a delay in the Oakland/Anaheim game as the groundscrew came out and rebuilt the front of the mound to Loaiza’s specs…
60. miller has a contract that requires his call-up
I know, but they’re calling him up before September 1 instead of re-activating Maroth.
I’m going to start with the vinegar and see what that does.
79
Maybe its because everything he throws is a a hanging curve or 86 MPH meatball down the center…
Speaking of Esteban Loaiza, as much as people have given Billy Beane props for the Frank Thomas signing, shouldn’t he also be blasted for the terrible contact to which he signed Loaiza?
oh, and far as I can tell, Buck Martinez thinks that the high OBP that folks keep touting about Frank Thomas was because he was such a good hitter he got walked a lot, and pitchers worked around him.
60: At least your Representative in the U.S. House isn’t an attempted rapist.
True. And at least it’s better than Oklahoma’s two senators right now. They’re both really, really scary. Inhofe, during the Abu Gharib hearings, gives this diatribe against the “liberal media” saying that everyone in Abu Gharib was a hardened criminal who deserved to be punished by any means necessary.
Something like 20% were in Abu Gharib for the horrible crime of being out after curfew.
Is it just me, the camera angle, or does Lopez look like a tard out there leading off first?
They don’t seem too worried about Bloomquist.
Yeah, swing for the fences there Willie. Make it a multi-homer year for the first time in forever.
Bloomquist could be a power hitter. He just doesn’t want to be.
7:
Ha ha.
>>They should trade him now and get some great prospects while there is still time.
#81– they say it is also good for cleaning coffee stains, so if it then smells too much like vinegar in the room, you can always claim that you dropped a cuppa there…
Okay, so, who wants to go find the link for the comment that Typical Idiot Fan wrote up a week or so ago, explaining the flaws of WHIP/ERA? We’re going to have to put it in every game thread, I guess.
WHIP and ERA = bad indicators of talent.
Yes, JI I recognized his tough 2006 season. But he has been effective in the past, what’s to say he can’t return to form. And as I mentioned, he was putting together a solid August. So do you have anything besides…
Cause he sucks dude!
While that’s a great argument, it really doesn’t explain his past performances and the fact he seemed to be rounding back into form. I’d rather have Mateo on the mound than Huber.
I saw Bloomquist taking batting practice last week and he actually didn’t look half bad, even hit a few out. Not saying that batting practice is a good measure of how good a hitter should be, but man alive, his pitch recognition, timing, power, and overall ability to think well at the plate just sucks. I honestly find it amazing he is still in a Major League uniform.
25:
Could Felix’s W-L record possibly, POSSIBLY, be due to the fact that they have one of the under-performing offenses in the AL?
Nah. Pitchers are entirely responsible for their number of W’s. ANd if they have a lousy record, then they suck.
Maybe the padres would want to trade Jake pEavy for Willie Bloomquist?
That’s because you’re using the wrong tools to evaluate him, Milos.
Mateo is probably okay, if used properly. Unfortunately he hasn’t been.
um. that would be a delay in the Oakland/Boston game. Apparently, LA is playing up here today.
Dave-
I’ve looked for it but can’t find the post or comment you made a long time ago where you chose Mateo as your long man on a fictional team you put together based on skill sets and cost efficiency. Do you remember why you chose him then and what do you think has happened to him?
It may not be a great indicator of talent, but you can’t argue that it is a way of measuring effectiveness. Isn’t that the bottom line?
It may not be a great indicator of talent, but you can’t argue that it is a way of measuring effectiveness. Isn’t that the bottom line?
No, because past effectiveness, especially for pitchers, isn’t predictive of future effectiveness. And that’s really what we care about, right? How’s he going to do going forward.
WHIP and ERA don’t tell us who is going to be the best pitchers going forward. Using them to evaluate pitchers is like riding a donkey to work. It may get you there, it may not, but either way, why not drive?
Dave-
I’ve looked for it but can’t find the post or comment you made a long time ago where you chose Mateo as your long man on a fictional team you put together based on skill sets and cost efficiency. Do you remember why you chose him then and what do you think has happened to him?
Several years ago, Mateo threw 90-93. His stuff has deteriorated, and he’s now 86-90. So he’s not as good as he used to be.
He’s also no longer making the league minimum.
Yuni would have had that.
Okay, so, who wants to go find the link for the comment that Typical Idiot Fan wrote up a week or so ago, explaining the flaws of WHIP/ERA? We’re going to have to put it in every game thread, I guess.
Are you sure it was TypicalIdiotFan? I tried “WHIP ERA typicalidiotfan” and can’t any 2006 comments.
Wow..Willie looked a tad surprised with that..He needs to pay attention more. lol
Willie thus far has:
Made a bad throw to first that without a great throw from Ritchie would’ve surely allowed the first run
Got in the way of Lopez at what could’ve been a double play, but wasn’t
Couldn’t pick a bad throw by Lopez
Refused to walk by swinging at a pitch that AT NO TIME was even close to the strike zone on a full count
Reinforced why he needs to ONLY be used like Charles Gipson
#94 He is white and from washington does that answer your question why he is still in the majors?
#102 > He’s also no longer making the league minimum.
That’s a good point, Grover or not.
100
So bad stuff and sub-par command *aren’t* legitimate reasons?
Sure Mateo was effective in the past, but his peripherals have gone south, and stuff is gone. Re-read the USSM manifesto, ERA and WHIP are not good tools to project a pitcher’s effectiveness going forward.
I found something close to what I was thinking but still not sure that’s it.
No, because past effectiveness, especially for pitchers, isn’t predictive of future effectiveness.
I certainly don’t disagree with you Dave, but this is one thing that has always bugged me when it comes to scientific evaluations of baseball players; in every type of science I can think of, past results are predictive of future results. In baseball, this does not always seem to be true. Do you have any idea why this is the case?
What, Doyle isn’t a native? Fraud!
Umm… re: 109, I hadn’t seen Dave’s post. I’m not trying to be a jerk.
Every team needs a Willie Bloomquist — you may not love him, he may not be the best player, but he is there as a stopgap when guys are injured or tired, or when a pinch runner is needed.
He’s on this club because he brings something to the table — like it or not.
102. Thanks. Yes, and that non-minimum contract has another year to go. What do you think the club should do? You don’t want to pay your eleventh pitcher what he’ll be making, but it is a guaranteed deal. Will they look for anything special in spring training (such as increased velocity) to justify keeping him or is he a lock in any case because of the deal? And does he have any trade value or would he have to prove something in the spring for that to happen (in which case it might be better to keep him because he’s more effective). A bit of a quandary.
Dave, you gotta buy the rights to that thing and stick it in the F.A.Q.
Well I apologize for my lack of knowledge then. While you are absolutely right it doesn’t tell you how a player is going to perform going forward, it is a way of evaluating past performance. Things such as injury and age effect you performance going forward. It is to be expected that a player will struggle after an injury, but as a player returns to fitness, what are the best tools for evaluation?
Mateo was effective in the past, and after a small sample size for August may have been returning to something of a efficent middle reliever.
I certainly don’t disagree with you Dave, but this is one thing that has always bugged me when it comes to scientific evaluations of baseball players; in every type of science I can think of, past results are predictive of future results. In baseball, this does not always seem to be true. Do you have any idea why this is the case?
Because we don’t have perfect measures of past results. The problems are in the tools we use to evaluate the results.
#114 – I agree, the problem I have is with Grover’s love affair with him. He is a bench player, not a regular.
Okay, so, who wants to go find the link for the comment that Typical Idiot Fan wrote up a week or so ago, explaining the flaws of WHIP/ERA? We’re going to have to put it in every game thread, I guess.
I’ll get it.
Here you go.
Nice swing Richie!
Oh, just saw Dave’s above post. Yeah that was it.
#120 – A day late and a dollar short.
117
Check Mateo’s BABIP for August, see if there is a spike… err… dip. That’s where I’d start my (admittedly amateurish) evaluation.
Wow, Richie Rich smoked that thing.
Now, _this_ has been my vision of Ms vs. LA-LAs all year. We match up well with that club, and should paste ‘em. Richie bangs on the door, there.
Mateo was effective in the past, and after a small sample size for August may have been returning to something of a efficent middle reliever.
His August doesn’t look anything like his previous “effective” years. His success was almost completely a result of outs on balls in play, which is not very sustainable.
There isn’t a perfect stat for projecting pitcher effectiveness, so you have to look at the whole picture – I prefer looking through the prism of command (BB% is a decent proxy for this), ability to miss bats (K%), and movement (GB% works okay for this). If you can throw pitches that move, hitters can’t hit, and are strikes, you’re Cy Young. If you can do two of those, you can succeed. If you can only do one, you better do it better than anyone else alive.
Julio Mateo can’t do any of those things.
#119 — I don’t know if I’d call it a love affair — I think Grover values him, and because of his versatility, feels he can use him all over the place, which makes it look like he’s getting a lot of playing time.
It seems like the majority can reach a consensus on bench usage — either not enough or too much, depending who you ask.
And my post was simply to explain how we’re using more advanced statistical analysis to evaluate pitching skillsets. I wasn’t specifically trashing on people who follow WHIP or ERA, but that was KIND of how that discussion evolved since a couple of others were harping on them.
There is no reason for Bloomquist to have 200+ at bats each year. I don’t really have a problem with him pinch running, or as a injury reserve. My problem is that he gets too many atbats, and usually in the worst part of the lineup, he hits too poorly, and is about to make too much money doing it.
man, I have been fooled a couple times by balls to the outfield tonight, just like Dave.
speaking of looking at past indicators, Jim Caviezel threw out the first pitch yesterday, and looked surprisingly good doing it, actually getting a nice strike across the plate– I idly wondered if he played baseball at all, and poking around didn’t see anything about baseball, but there were several pieces talking about his basketball background– high school ball at Mount Vernon, then a transfer to O’Dea and another transfer to Kennedy. Several pieces then mentioned “I used to play basketball in college, and was injured.” That turned out to mean BCC. I’m sorry, but I grew up 5 minute from there, and to me BCC does not equal college ball
The strikeout may be a blessing in disguise. There’s no one I’d like up there more than Kenji.
130: Would you expect Jesus to throw anything but a strike across the plate?
KENJI-KUN!
We’ll take it.
Does worst club defensively = worst fielding %? Because, off the top of my head, the Angels look like they would have an above average infield (with a SS or 2B at every position), while having some problems in left field and center.
#127 – Yeah, but look at Bloomquist’s stats.
I would like to point out that Felix has recorded 12 outs so far, 10 via groundball, 1 in the air, 1 by a stupid baserunner.
No strikeouts. And he’s pitching BETTER then he has in a while.
Does worst club defensively = worst fielding %? Because, off the top of my head, the Angels look like they would have an above average infield (with a SS or 2B at every position), while having some problems in left field and center.
Fielding Percentage is probably the least useful stat in baseball.
#136 – Trade him now while he has value. – J/K
Two hits have been on ground balls too.
No strikeouts. And he’s pitching BETTER then he has in a while.
Tonight, the role of Felix will be played by Chien-Ming Wang.
Fielding Percentage is probably the least useful stat in baseball.
In this case, though, the Angels really do make some laughable stupid mistakes. They’re not a bad as Boston when it comes to boneheaded errors, but some of their guys sure do screw the pooch.
Fielding Percentage is probably the least useful stat in baseball.
Less than errors?
The Angels assclown rides again.
Chris Dial’s new defensive stat isn’t the most useful stat either. “This will be the first year Ichiro is actually the best right fielder.” Baseball Think Factory
Less than errors?
Checking for sarcasm, but isn’t FLD% based on “errorless” plays?
Dial’s work is actually quite good. No defensive metric is perfect, but throwing out his work just because you don’t agree with one result isn’t a good idea.
And through 5 innings, Felix has thrown just 4 pitches.
And through 5 innings, Felix has thrown just 44 pitches.
5 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 SO, 45 pitches (36 strikes, 9 balls), 12 groundball outs, 2 flyball outs.
He’s going to cost himself another start at this rate.
#147 – Damn, with 4 he would be a great pitcher.
45 pitches, 36 for strikes. 13 ground outs, 2 fly outs, 0 strike outs. Wow.
Fielding Percentage is probably the least useful stat in baseball.
I dunno. What about GW RBIs or PRO Outs?
What I meant was is that what the announcer meant when he said (paraphrasing, of course) “The Angels are the worst fielding club… yadda yadda”
It seemed after the Boston series the announcers nearly had an epiphany after citing numerous times that even though Boston has the best fielding %, they field like crap.
On a lighter note, Red Hudler looks like a carrot, has the same charisma, and speaks in the same meter of that surfer dude guy from the infomercials that makes a $100,000 an hour by placing small ads in the newspaper from his one room 10 sq. ft. studio apartment.
Reminds me: why is the ceiling for Felix based on innings pitched rather than on an overall pitch count?
The Angels assclown rides again.
HaHaHa!!!
13 ground outs
12. You can’t count Izturis being thrown out at the plate as a groundball out. Though the ball in play was a grounder, this is one of those “non pitcher related” outs that he doesn’t get credit for. Baserunner errors, caught stealings, etc don’t count for Felix.
I’m outta here… the lady is whining, so let me know how it turns out.
ICHI-ro?
156. He induced a ground ball, though. How to account for this?
You know, Juan Rivera is pretty damn good, probably a decent current candidate for “most underrated player in baseball.”
He induced a ground ball, though. How to account for this?
It counts towards his groundballs on balls put in play percentage, but because Vlad Guerrero made it to first safely, it’s a play that isn’t based on the pitcher. It’s a baserunning error on Izturis.
Nice line from Dave Niehaus on radio. Referring to Boston’s problems in Oakland, “You take Ramirez and Ortiz out of that lineup, and you’re writing a concession speech.”
I jinxed Felix. He struck someone out.
Admittedly, the Mickey-Hatcher-led Angels offense is perfect for Felix, but he has been pretty great tonight.
How is O-Cab hitting 3rd for this team?
59 pitches (47 strikes, 12 balls) through 6 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 SO, 12 groundball outs, 4 flyball outs.
Sort of regressed to his 3-1 groundball out ratio. I’ll still take it.
Boy did he ever. Goodbye Impaler at 99 mph (if the gun is to be believed).
How is O-Cab hitting 3rd for this team?
Scioscia is an idiot.
Yay! Just got home and turned the game on and didn’t immediately curse the M’s. Yay Felix!
167. FSN-gun is actually sportsvision, same people that bring you k-zone on espn
166. Do you have any idea why Felix is on a season-long innings watch rather than an overall pitch count? Isn’t the number of pitches more important than the number of innings? Tonight, for example, he’s very efficient with the pitches but will certainly run up his innings.
Yay for Richie padding his on base percentage.
Just got home and turned the game on and didn’t immediately curse the M’s.
Someone must think she’s all powerful…
Do you have any idea why Felix is on a season-long innings watch rather than an overall pitch count?
Not to start another IP vs. pitch count vs. stress pitches arguement, but you’ll have to ask the Mariners organization.
I know it helps that he’s facing LAA and not NYY, but dang he looks like he’s on a different planet tonight!
Is there any reason (besides being on my fantasy team) that he DOESN’T pitch a shut out?
171: I think it is inaccurate to suggest that Felix isn’t on a pitch count. With the exception of pitchers with fragile arms that are managed by Dusty Baker, every pitcher in the league is on a pitch count.
Don’t look now, but Richie is closing in on .240. I don’t think the BA’s been that high since early April.
The M’s hired Frank Jobe to do a study, and he basically told them that his research said Age * 10 should be a decent way to handle all young pitchers, with pitchers under 24 staying around 200 or so innings at the maximum.
Am I the only one who thinks Doyle bears an uncanny facial resemblance to one E. Martinez?
Ladies and Gents, Ben Broussard is having a really bad week so far. His game yesterday against Boston was abysmal with an error that cost a run, striking out with the bases loaded in the first against a completely usless pitcher in Kyle Snyder, and just really looked lost. Tonight, 0-3 with a couple of strikeouts.
Yeesh. The general statistical study on Broussard so far has shown his major weakness (offspeed / breaking pitches) which he’s going to get more often when he’s behind in the count. But it’s not as if Escobar is throwing balls here. So this is kind of just a really bad matchup for him.
Nice play Willie!!!
Credit where it’s due… nice play, Willie.
The King has that “this is too easy” demeanor going right now.
176. I’m not talking about an in-game pitch count. Felix is on a 200-inning ceiling, including spring training, and I’m wondering what the virtue of an innings count is in the Mariners mindset rather than what would appear to be a more finely tuned guage of wear, the number of pitches. Pitchers aren’t on an innings count in games, so why should he be on an innings count for the season?
yes.
My God, but this game is going fast. . . . I LOVE it; means that the pitching is good.
#140 -
You stole my joke.
I guess I could stay say something like, Felix is pitching with his Wang out tonight, but that’s not adding light to the glowing firmament of discussion.
184: If a pitcher is on a pitch count for every individual game, then he kinda is on a pitch count for the entire season.
There is a place for willie to play its in tacoma!
189
Everett (where he could finally hit .300…maybe)
sorry. that would be yes, you are the only person who thinks Doyle looks like Edgar
The TNT led off a game report the other day with a discussion about Broussard and his hitting woes
Willie’s job tonight is to get out as fast as he can so that we can get back to the Felix show.
Atta boy Willie! Nobody can do that job like you can.
188. He’s not pitching the entire season. He’s pitching to an innings total regardless of the number of pitches, which is why he’ll probably be skipping two starts in September. I’ve heard about the formula (10 x the pitcher’s age) but it just seems like a pretty blunt instrument.
Anyway, as Dave said, Dr. Jobe has spoken, and anything they try that will possibly reduce injuries to young arms certainly seems worth a shot.
Say, this game is a pretty good example of Felix and Johjima working well together, it would seem.
I haven’t been here to see if Felix has been shaking him off, but I’d expect not.
Felix probably only has another inning in him. Despite the low pitch count, he’s beginning to tire. I know the results are still awesome, and this is by far his best pitched game of the year, but I’m a little worried about the ninth inning.
Er… isn’t there only one inning left?
I haven’t thrown his system out, Dave. It seems that he thinks his system produces valid and reliable ratings of 100% of players. So he singles out Ichiro for particular criticism. It seems like he has a personal dislike of Ichiro.
Say, this game is a pretty good example of Felix and Johjima working well together, it would seem.
It might seem that way, but you’re wrong. If you listened to the awesome Jeff Brantley, you would know that there is a phenomenon called the Johjima Factor that is impeding Felix’s development.
So, next Felix start, can lostinWI come back and say that he’s so terrible we should trade him now?
?El Cartelua: where was you fer 4.5 months?
I haven’t thrown his system out, Dave. It seems that he thinks his system produces valid and reliable ratings of 100% of players. So he singles out Ichiro for particular criticism. It seems like he has a personal dislike of Ichiro.
Dial’s a very confident guy. That’s just part of who he is. Doesn’t mean we have to agree with his confidence.
And he doesn’t have a personal dislike of Ichiro.
Bad game for Snelling too.
I love to see Felix pitching like he doesn’t care about strikeouts. It’s nice that he throws hittable pitches when he’s ahead in the count, obviously satisfied to let the batters make poor contact. His pitch count stays low, the game moves nicely, and nobody gets walked.
Helpful Hint for Mr. Hargrove: Resting Yuni is a great idea, but it would probably be an even better idea when one of your many fly-ballers are on the mound.
Dave or Typical idiot fan or whoever else:
Since I keep hearing about pitchers with good ERA’s and solid WHIP who AREN’T as great of pitchers as some think in your analysis, who are some pitchers you have in mind that have poorer ERA’s and WHIP that you think are underrated?
Not being a smartass, just honestly wondering, since this type of analysis seems interesting.
maybe Felix heard Hargrove’s quote today about skipping some Kingly starts in Sept so that he didn’t exceed his numbers, and decided to go for economy of pitches from now on….
ok, the sportsticker during the commercial says that the Raiders just signed Jeff George…um, don’t they already have at least 4 QBs on the roster, including Marques? oh wait, I keep forgetting that Tui “has yet to shine in two starts during five seasons”, as the SacBee put it earlier this year.
Thank you for putting Betancourt in.
Who would have thought that Jamie Moyer was holding this team back? /joke,inane/
Seriously, when your organization’s senior and most popular player pulls the ripcord and bails out on his squad for a better bunch, it’s the kind of action that can lead to a degree of professional self-examination. Perhaps it did in this instance.
This is pretty damn sweet. Argh, those 11 games!
7. “All of this hype for KING Felix is totally ludicris. This guy is so over-hyped that anything less than a 30 win season would be considered a failure. He is NOT the greatest young phenom in the A.L. Hell he is not even the best phenom in his own division(Jared Weaver) plus he is not the best phenom on his own team(Lowe). I smell nothing but mediocrity coming out of his kingdom. They should trade him now and get some great prospects while there is still time. Besides that go M’s.”
Hmmm.
That slider was sick!
Well, looks like Kenji can catch Felix perfectly fine afterall.
Hey, Mikey did put Yuni in for defense in the 9th.
Well that was just dandy!
Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet.
Terrrrrrriffic game. Gotta love it, and gotta go.
Trivia: Felix’s slider is illegal in sixteen states.
Almost heard Dave N say “and 20 long games of frustration … are over!”, but it was just my imagination.
Awww. That was an adorable smile to Hargrove there. And nice rapport between Felix and Joh, no? Although I don’t think they’re as close as Felix and his bling.
204: Felix Hernandex seems a good example.
#7: That’ll go down better with mustard on it. Under 2 hours, too.
Damn, hadn’t read the thread, and looks like Lauren beat me to the punch.
Wow, I just flipped to the A’s-Sawks game, and Buck Martinez sounds a lot like Cheif Wiggum…
Oh, I guess Red Sox management sucks because the Yanks were able to get Lidle + Abreu, and the Sox ended up with no-name losers.
Since I keep hearing about pitchers with good ERA’s and solid WHIP who AREN’T as great of pitchers as some think in your analysis, who are some pitchers you have in mind that have poorer ERA’s and WHIP that you think are underrated?
Felix is the obvious one, as you see people like Bill Simmons pouring off the bandwagon and jumping on go-nowhere trains like Jered Weaver. Underrated guys, though in various degrees include Jeremy Bonderman, Jake Peavy, Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang, Dave Bush, and Ian Snell. And in the “everyone thinks they’re washed up but they aren’t” category, Greg Maddux and Jon Lieber.
there was some fine Joh & King bonding and many Man Hugs in the handshake line tonight.
Rotoworld sez that “Mateo was returning a weight to the rack and his hand slipped and got pinned between a weight and the rack.” oh, and apparently, Pavano suffered a pair broken ribs in a car accident about three weeks ago, an accident that he neglected to mention to the Yanks until this weekend…
Rotoworld sez that “Mateo was returning a weight to the rack and his hand slipped and got pinned between a weight and the rack.”
Ouch.
Jake Peavy doesn’t exactly seem like a go-nowhere-train…
He wasn’t saying Peavy was. Notice that he listed him alongside Bonderman, who is probably the ace of the Tigers staff right now, but isn’t getting the press Justin Verlander is.
226: You’re missing the period there separating sentences and ideas. I did the same thing the first time I read it.
I’ve rewritten it to make it clearer.
Do I get to re-edit my stupid comment too?
Dave, How does Weaver project? Like his brother, maybe? Like Cal Eldred?
Now that’s the Felix I’m talking about… if he attacks the strike zone it’s all over.
I’ve seen other things in my life that made my eyes bug and my tongue hang out more than Felix’ game tonight, but none of them occured outside of filthy bars in Juarez.
And I say that with the utmost respect to filthy bars in Juarez.
Just a couple of observations on Doyle. I went to the game yesterday and tooka pretty close look at him. First of all he’s wearing the biggest knee brace I’ve ever seen on a baseball player. Remember the brace Sid Bream used to wear? Doyle’s makes it look like ace bandage. I’m guessing any lateral stability he has in his left leg are soley due to the brace. Brace technology has gotten better but looking at his leg, I’m thinking Doyle needs to DH at least 1/2 time to last out a season.
At the plate he’s got a great eye and he’s got incredibly quick hands. Unfortunately he’s got almost no weight transfer through the hitting zone. All his bat speed is being generated by his arms and wrists. While he’s going to get his share of walks and singles and doubles down the line, I don’t think he’s going to generate gap power or HR power with his current swing.
Maybe he’ll adapt to playing on 1 leg. I hope he does but I’ll have to say I didn’t really like what I saw yesterday. He can be a valuable player but he’s a shadow of what he was prior to injury.
Jered Weaver is better than Jeff Weaver. He relies on deception and command, though, rather than pure stuff, and those guy aren’t as predictable as guys with true knockout pitches.
I’d say he’s more like Chris Young or Woody Williams.
Since I keep hearing about pitchers with good ERA’s and solid WHIP who AREN’T as great of pitchers as some think in your analysis, who are some pitchers you have in mind that have poorer ERA’s and WHIP that you think are underrated?
Exhibit A: Felix Hernandez.
Using Game Score as a tool for evaluating effectiveness within a specific game, this was Felix’s second best major league start. He scored an 81 tonight. He got an 82 in his third start last year, facing Kansas City, went he went 8 3 1 1 1 11. That was more impressive, I think, because he rang up 11 strikeouts in 8 innings and still only needed 99 pitches.
He’s only gotten a game score above 70 four times this year; May 9th vs Tampa (71), June 11th @ Anaheim (80), August 8th vs Tampa (72), and now August 28th vs Anaheim (81). Not a coincidence that his four best starts are against two of the least patient teams in the American League. When hitters fail to make Felix pitch from behind in the count, they can’t touch him.
I’d say he’s more like Chris Young or Woody Williams.
Which makes his holdout all the more hilarious.
…At least Woody was a good pitcher under Duncan and co. in STL.
When hitters fail to make Felix pitch from behind in the count, they can’t touch him.
Probably because when he is ahead he can lean on his unhitable breaking stuff, instead of trying to locate his FB. If his fastball was truly his best pitch as Val and Co. claim, he’d be throwing fastballs with regular frequency when he was ahead. Now all I need is some data to back up my claim, but I’m too lazy to actually do research, but it seems obvious.
JI – just google for Charting Felix. I’ve done the work for you earlier this year.
In reference to WHIP and ERA. I think their statistical value has been thrown under the bus. I’m not going to argue that FIP and xFIP aren’t superior stats, because they certainly are. But at the same time, if you look at the best pitchers in baseball, this year or any year, I presume you would see that the best pitchers (measured by the superior statistics) also had great ERAs and WHIPs. The Justin Verlander example was perfect, because it outlined how many crazy things are different between Verlander and the league average pitcher. But that logic must also infer that for the majority of major leaguers, ERA and WHIP will tell a similar story to FIP xFIP. For every Verlander example, there is 8 more where WHIP and ERA are pretty indicative of the pitcher’s future performance.
If I was making a decision on which pitcher to give $100 million, I would definitely like to have all the stats mentioned by Dave and Typical Idiot Fan (GB%, K/9, etc). But when talking about Cy Young voting, I have no problem with people citing ERA, Ks, and WHIP as reasons why they voted in a certain manner.
#222: Oh, I guess Red Sox management sucks because the Yanks were able to get Lidle + Abreu, and the Sox ended up with no-name losers.
Right, because being unable to spend $240m+ on payroll (after luxury tax) like the Yankees do means Boston management sucks.
Not to mention failing to foresee the injuries that happened after the Lidle+Abreau trade: Nixon’s strained bicep, Jon Lester’s back strain due to a car accident, Varitek’s torn meniscus, Manny’s patella tendinitis, Wily Mo Pena’s wrist strain, Mirabelli’s ankle that he hurt during BP Saturday. You’re right; Theo sucks.
If I was making a decision on which pitcher to give $100 million, I would definitely like to have all the stats mentioned by Dave and Typical Idiot Fan (GB%, K/9, etc). But when talking about Cy Young voting, I have no problem with people citing ERA, Ks, and WHIP as reasons why they voted in a certain manner.
The job you’re trying to do determines what tool to use. If you want to know how much value a player added to a team in the past and don’t care about adjusting for defense, go ahead, use ERA (or ERA+, which adjusts for park at least). It will get you in the ballpark most of the time, and except for extreme cases, will be good enough.
If you’re trying to figure out what a pitcher will do in the future, however, ERA just isn’t very useful. The year to year correlation is quite low, something like .3, if I remember correctly.
For past performance reviews, ERA is okay, even if its not great. For future projections, it’s not good enough.
Dave, I’m sorry, I really just don’t understand your argument. Capuano, Harang and Bonderman all have sub-4.00 eras; 3.53, 3.67 and 3.97 respectively(Capuano and Harang are in the top 20 and Bondo top 30). Madduxs’ is just a shade over 4.00 and has put up a 2.32 era since moving to La-La Land. Of all the pitchers you listed, only Felix as a whip over the league average of 1.41 and 5 of the 8 have whips closer to 1.25 or below
You could make an argument that these pitchers are underrated due to their W-L record. But then again, even I am in agreement that that is no way of determining a pitchers value.
Dave, I agree with your logic. One question, what is the year to year correlation between FIP and xFIP year to year? In essence, you are trying to point out that ERA is not that useful of a stat. But how less useful compared to the superior stats mentioned? I think the correlation difference between the two stats would tell us how much better one is over the other. What do you think?
Dave, I’m sorry, I really just don’t understand your argument. Capuano, Harang and Bonderman all have sub-4.00 eras; 3.53, 3.67 and 3.97 respectively(Capuano and Harang are in the top 20 and Bondo top 30). Madduxs’ is just a shade over 4.00 and has put up a 2.32 era since moving to La-La Land. Of all the pitchers you listed, only Felix as a whip over the league average of 1.41 and 5 of the 8 have whips closer to 1.25 or below
Did you know Jeremy Bonderman has been the best non-Liriano pitcher in the AL this year? Better than Johan, better than Halladay? I bet you didn’t, because ERA and WHIP sure don’t tell you that. They might tell you he’s been pretty good, but they don’t tell you that he’s actually been lights out dominant. His ERA is underrating his performance. It’s possible to both be good and underrated at the same time.
Maddux’s ERA is 4.69, by the way. His Fielding Independant ERA is 3.69. His ERA isn’t even close to accurate for how well he’s pitched.
Again, it’s the donkey analogy. Riding it to work, you might get there if everything goes right – the donkey is motivated, a police officer doesn’t pull you over, and you work close to home. But why wouldn’t you just drive a car?
ERA/WHIP are inferior to component stats and don’t tell us anything we can’t learn from looking at things like BB%, K%, GB%, LOB%, and HR/FB%.
Dave, I agree with your logic. One question, what is the year to year correlation between FIP and xFIP year to year?
It’s not super high. I can’t find the studies at the moment, but I think it was .52 for FIP and .56 for xFIP or something. They clearly aren’t the be-all, end-all statistic, and I’m not advocating evaluating pitchers strictly by their FIP/xFIP marks.
If you’re going to use one number to evaluate a pitcher, though, it shouldn’t be ERA or WHIP. That’s all I’m saying.
At the plate [Doyle’s] got a great eye and he’s got incredibly quick hands. Unfortunately he’s got almost no weight transfer through the hitting zone.
It’s not weight transfer, it’s hip rotation that matters. Or is Ted Williams turning over in his cryotank once again?
#247: Or is Ted Williams turning over in his cryotank once again?
Just his severed head.
(The thought of that almost makes me ill.)
I’ll concede. Maybe you have all these stats at your finger tips, but for me when comparing pitchers, the most readily available stats you can find online are era and whip. I never said it was the end all be all for pitcher evaluation. It is a good barometer and easily accessible.
Maddux era was 4.69 at Chicago this year and 2.32 since his trade, for a 4.25 overall era on the year. If you were curious.
Good news: 6 wins out of 7 against Angels, Red Sox, and Yankees and will likely lead to us getting back towards .500
Bad news: Mike Hargrove will be the manager in 2007 if this team keeps up this nice little run late into September.
Dave, great points. What you are saying is that each stat is a piece of a larger puzzle. ERA is a small piece that actually fits in a bigger piece…say FIP. K/9 is another piece, etc. If you look at all the pieces you start to see the puzzle take its true form.
With my comments, I’m just trying to evaluate how much better one stat is over the other. Its too easy to say, ERA and WHIP suck (not that you are saying that, but you get my point). I’m trying to see how inferior they really are.
By the way, thanks for responding to my posts. You may get tired of answering questions and comments like mine all the time, but your time and thoughts in relation to my comments are appreciated.
OK, who farted in this thread?
Or, to frame this debate in a different way, getting away from FIP/xFIP vs ERA/WHIP. (and yes, I’m writing this so I don’t have to keep writing it every time this comes up)
What are the possible events in an at-bat that can occur?
A pitch can be thrown for a ball.
A pitch can be thrown for a strike.
A pitch can be swung at and missed.
The ball can be hit on the ground.
The ball can be hit on a line.
The ball can be hit in the air.
On any given pitch, those are the options. There are a few sub-categories under those options (outfield fly or infield fly, bunt grounder or normal grounder, etc…), but we can sum up every possible outcome of each pitch with those six options.
Which of these six outcomes are positive for the pitcher? Called strike, swinging strike, and groundball.
Which of these six outcomes are positive for the hitter? Called ball, line drive, and flyball.
If we can effectively determine which pitchers maximize their value in the “good outcomes” and minimize their harm in the “bad outcomes”, we can get a pretty firm grasp on who has pitching talent and who does not.
ERA and WHIP group together a large string of individual events made by multiple players, making it extremely tough to parcel out the credit to the pitcher. WHIP and ERA tell you there is no difference in an inning where three batters whack the crap out of the ball and end up with three long flyouts or an inning where a pitcher strikes out the side. Clearly, they’re drastically different, but WHIP and ERA fail to account for the actual contribution of the pitcher.
So, instead of using statistics that leave out critical information, our best bet is to try to quantify the six potential outcomes as best as we can.
BB% (Walks per Total Batters Faced) does a nice job evaluating how often a pitcher throws the ball in the strike zone.
K% (Strikeouts per Total Batters Faced) does a decent job evaluating how often a pitcher induces swings and misses or called strikes.
GB% (Groundballs per Balls In Play) does a very good job of telling us how often a pitcher induces a groundball.
LD% (Line Drives per Balls In Play) does a very good job of telling us how often a pitcher gives up line drives.
FB% (Flyballs per Balls In Play) does a very good job of telling us how often a pitcher gives up flyballs.
So we have five statistics that cover each of the six possible outcomes pretty effectively. Not perfect, but pretty good. Now, using these statistics, we’ve noticed that line drive percentage seems to be fairly random from year to year, and we currently believe that the hitter has more to do with whether a ball in play becomes a line drive than the pitcher does. Since we’re trying to evaluate the pitcher, we don’t use LD% very often for major league pitchers.
Thanks to the work of guys like Voros McCracken, Tom Tippett, Keith Woolner, and Dave Studeman, we also now know that the result of a particular ball in play is also not very consistent. So, when evaluating pitchers talent, we need to adjust for outliar type performances on converting outs on balls in play. If a pitcher has a lot of flyballs that are being caught on the warning track, or groundballs that are going right to infielders, that’s not likely to continue, and we shouldn’t assume that it will.
The other two big factors that we’ve identified that can have a great effect on run scoring are home run rates and stranding runners. In general, flyball pitchers give up more home runs than groundball pitchers, which is why a groundball is a positive event for the pitcher and a flyball is not.
We’ve seen very little evidence that major league pitchers have significant control over how often their flyballs go over the wall, so occassionally you’ll see a wild swing in performance that is not predictive, simply because a pitcher is having more or less flyballs go over the wall than should be expected. Felix Hernandez in April and May of this year was a great example of a guy who allowed a lot of home runs per flyball, and that rate has steadily dropped as the season wore on.
Stranding runners is also a big key, and a bit of a different animal. Naturally, good pitchers will strand more runners than bad pitchers. Since they’re good pitchers, they’re more likely to get an out with men on base than if they weren’t a good pitcher. While the league average Left on Base Percentage is 70%, the bad pitchers often live in the low-to-mid-60% range, and the good pitchers live in the mid-to-high-70% range. This is something of a reflection of skill.
However, it’s not uncommon for bad pitchers to have flukily high strand rates that significantly lower than ERAs, and vice versa. Jarrod Washburn’s 2005 ERA was almost completely due to his high strand rate, as he posted the highest LOB% in the American League. That hasn’t held true in 2006, and we’ve seen his ERA rise a full run because of it. So, when you find a pitcher who is stranding runners at an unexpected rate when compared to his talent derived by BB%, K%, and GB%, it is prudent to expect that rate to regress back towards a more normal rate in the future.
So, looking at this breakdown, we see value in BB%, K%, GB%, HR/FB%, and LOB%. Those five statistics will tell you almost everything you need to know about what goes into how a pitcher is performing. There’s nothing that ERA/WHIP tell you that those component statistics do not, but ERA and WHIP certainly leave a lot of the underlying information out.
In this age of wonderful information, there’s just no reason to use ERA and WHIP for serious analysis of a pitcher’s ability.
I’ll concede. Maybe you have all these stats at your finger tips, but for me when comparing pitchers, the most readily available stats you can find online are era and whip. I never said it was the end all be all for pitcher evaluation. It is a good barometer and easily accessible.
Go to the hardballtimes.com. The site loads faster than ESPN, MLB.com, or whatever site you’re using to get ERA/WHIP, and these “fancy stats” are available for every pitcher in baseball for the last three years. You’ll love it.
Dave…I now believe. This post should be linked when this comes up in a week. Very easy to follow the logic in this post.
It would be nice if in the future these stats meant something to the average fan. Like when someone says .300 hitter, it means something to everyone who watches baseball consistently. Maybe in 10 years, GB% will be stated and we will all nod our heads in understanding.
Any chance post #253 can be put on the front of the next USS Mariner t-shirt?
#233– he’s been wearing the brace since he came back in … was it May?
#241– I believe that was actually a mocking paraphrase of the interesting logic of the ESPN broadcast team covering the As/Sox game
While waiting for the Pirate All-Time webgems on BBTN, I did get to watch Kruk lay out the Phillies’ horrible play around Moyer in that 3rd inning this morning. When they came, the Pirates “top three plays” are a Jack Wilson DP, Dave Parker’s throw in the AS game, and Giles reaching over the wall to bring back a HR. Huh?
Boy, now I can’t wait to see what they deem the top three plays for the Mariners on wednesday.
Dave…I now believe. This post should be linked when this comes up in a week. Very easy to follow the logic in this post.
That’s the plan. The whole goal in writing that comment was to have something I could link to the next time this comes up.
It would be nice if in the future these stats meant something to the average fan. Like when someone says .300 hitter, it means something to everyone who watches baseball consistently. Maybe in 10 years, GB% will be stated and we will all nod our heads in understanding.
Yea, I realize the lack of a baseline can be a little confusing. So, let me throw a few at you, and try to figure out a way to get them into that comment:
BB% – 8% is about average. The AL is a little higher than the NL, thanks to the DH. Anything below 5% is spectacular.
K% – 16% is about average. This time, the NL is a little higher, but its still due to the DH. Anything over 20% is very good.
GB% – 42% is about average. Anything over 50% is very good. The most extreme guys are in the low-to-mid-60% range.
HR/FB% – 11% is the league average, but the more I look into this, the more I believe we need an average for relievers and an average for starters. I don’t have those baselines yet, but the number for relievers will be lower (probably 9% or so) and higher for starters (12%, maybe 13%).
LOB% – 70% is average. This one is a little tricky, because small swings in LOB% can produce big swings in ERA. A 67% LOB% and a 73% LOB% for a pitcher with the same peripherals is probably half a run of ERA, even though its “only” a 3% swing. Anything over 75% or under 65% is probably not a sustainable skill for a major league quality starting pitcher.
And, while I’m still here, I should note that most of this applies to starting pitchers. Relievers are a very weird, very different breed, and they represent a group of very polarized talents. We can still use these statistics to value relievers, but their jobs are different than starters, and the baselines are necessarily different. Since stranding runners is a key requirement for a reliever, LOB% is going to make up a disproportionate amount of their value.
The best way to approach evaluating relief pitching is to admit that they’re notoriously fickle and proceed with caution.
Any chance post #253 can be put on the front of the next USS Mariner t-shirt?
It would probably need to be on a dress instead.
the USS Mariner BBQ Apron…
This was an awesome game to attend. I’ve had great luck in both of my Felix starts this year–today’s game and the game he out-dueled Liriano. When Good Felix is in full effect, good times will abound in Safeco.
Seriously, Felix is pitching, Mr. Ground Ball, and you give Betancourt a night off? Just insane.
I had a similar thought at the beginning of the game. Can we put an asterisk on this start that notes Willie was at short?
#257: #241– I believe that was actually a mocking paraphrase of the interesting logic of the ESPN broadcast team covering the As/Sox game
Ah, that makes more sense. I went out for dinner and missed a big chunk of the games. (I was flipping back and forth before I went out.)
And it’s hard to imagine that the news for the Red Sox can get worse, but David Ortiz is scratched from the series and going back to Boston due to a recurrence of heart trouble.
Re 253.
Beat the shit out of my post. I’m copy / pasta’ing that thing to a .txt file just in case. Hell, maybe a .doc to add some cool borders and fonts. Maybe a few wingdings just to spice up the thing. You said you wrote that so you wont have to again, so pointing out that you should put that in the FAQ, or as an automatic obligatory link at the beginning of every game thread, is unecessary.
I want to ask though, whether we should ever take LOB% seriously. Much in the same way that HR/FB% is skewed against groundball pitchers (since groundball pitchers tend to have a higher percentage of their flyballs go for homeruns, simply because they throw fewer flyballs) LOB% could be skewed heavily one way or the other. Say you allow fewer runners, but more of them score. The LOB% would naturally be higher then someone who allows a lot of baserunners and more runs to score, but their LOB% looks better because of a larger set sample.
I’d also like to go around and test the theory of “getting ahead” in the count. Announcer guys like to say that those pitchers who throw strike one on the first pitch are better. But I’m wondering if there’s any corrolation between consistent first pitch strike throwers and whether they match up with what we observe with the 6 outcomes.
#258: The best way to approach evaluating relief pitching is to admit that they’re notoriously fickle and proceed with caution.
How much of that variance is due to the low IP numbers for relievers? It seems dangerous to divide by small numbers and make rate projections when you are dealing with small denominators.
242: If you’re trying to figure out what a pitcher will do in the future, however, ERA just isn’t very useful. The year to year correlation is quite low, something like .3, if I remember correctly.
246: Dave, I agree with your logic. One question, what is the year to year correlation between FIP and xFIP year to year?
It’s not super high. I can’t find the studies at the moment, but I think it was .52 for FIP and .56 for xFIP or something.
Good discussion and explanation, the one thing that’s missing is the data to support the statements that certain components (GB%) are relatively repeatable by a pitcher whereas others (HR/FB%) are not. E.g. what are the correlations of those components from year to year?
No I’m not actually asking for the data or the correlations, just point us in the direction of who did the studies and where to find them. I’m very familiar with the work that Voros and Tom Tippett did on the low correlations of BABIP from year to year, but I’m not familiar with the studies of the correlations of ERA, FIP, GB%, etc. from year to year. For awhile people liked to talk about the “Three True Outcomes” and look at BB%, HR%, and K% but what you’re describing goes farther, if I’m understanding correctly HR% is not as useful a measure as FB% … and HR/FB% is largely a matter of luck. Those are the results that I’m not familiar with.
#258: That’s the plan. The whole goal in writing that comment was to have something I could link to the next time this comes up.
This kind of analysis is easy to lose at the bottom of 200+ comments in a game thread. I wonder if you’d consider breaking it out into its own post. I expect you’d get a nice discussion going that would educate a lot of readers.
And finally, for anyone who was wondering while reading my long winded rambling above, here are the run values as calculated from 2002-2005 by Dave Studeman in the Hardball Times Annual for each event that can occur in an at-bat. Lumping things into “Good Outcomes” and “Bad Outcomes” makes the explanation simple, but also hides the difference between a great outcome (a strikeout) and a slightly good outcome (a groundball). Not all good or bad outcomes are created equal, and a run value chart helps show the difference in event quality:
Line Drive: .356 – basically, a line drive is worth 35% of one run.
HBP: .342
Non-Intentional Walk: .315
Intentional Walk: .176
Outfield Fly: .035
Groundball: -.101
Bunts: -.103
Infield Fly: -.243
Strikeout: -.287
These run values were taken from real life play-by-play data, so this is an actual representation of events, not some theoretic formula. As you can see, a hit-by-pitch is a better event for the offense than a walk, even though they both simply put the batter on first base. Why? Because a hit-by-pitch correlates pretty well with “struggling pitcher”, and so more struggles are likely to follow.
As you can see, the difference between an outfield fly and a groundball isn’t huge, but its real, and it adds up over the course of the season. This is why, all things equal, a groundball pitcher is better than a flyball pitcher. All things are almost never equal, and flyball pitchers tend to have higher strikeout rates than groundball pitchers, but the theoretical best pitcher alive would be be a groundball pitcher, not a flyball pitcher.
Also, bunting = bad.
Hope this is informative.
Dave, you are on a roll. Do I get any credit for beating this out of you? I’m like the moses to your burning bush. Or more likely, I was the straw that finally broke the camel’s back.
Following your logic, I would expect LOB% to be more variable because it combines multiple outcomes from multiple at bats. Just like a pitcher who strikes out the side with the bases loaded is different from a pitcher who “induces” three consecutive batters to line out.
LOB% seems more like WHIP and ERA than GB% and K%. It shows what occured in the past, but doesn’t seem as robust in identifying future performance.
I want to ask though, whether we should ever take LOB% seriously. Much in the same way that HR/FB% is skewed against groundball pitchers (since groundball pitchers tend to have a higher percentage of their flyballs go for homeruns, simply because they throw fewer flyballs) LOB% could be skewed heavily one way or the other. Say you allow fewer runners, but more of them score. The LOB% would naturally be higher then someone who allows a lot of baserunners and more runs to score, but their LOB% looks better because of a larger set sample.
Absolutely we should take it seriously. It has a significant impact on run scoring. If you wanted to explain to someone why Felix was struggling, his 66.9% LOB% this year would be a great place to start. When he’s put guys on, they’ve scored. That’s been a problem.
Is it predictive? Kind of, but not really. Not any more so than establishing an expected LOB% based on a pitcher’s other component rates, anyways.
How much of that variance is due to the low IP numbers for relievers? It seems dangerous to divide by small numbers and make rate projections when you are dealing with small denominators.
That’s a huge chunk of it, no doubt. Reporters love to quote things like Julio Mateo’s 2.42 ERA in his last 21 outings, but that covers a whopping 22 innings. If he had given up 10 runs instead of 6 during that time, his ERA would be nearly 4.00. Using rate stats in small samples can make the differences look much larger than they really are.
Good discussion and explanation, the one thing that’s missing is the data to support the statements that certain components (GB%) are relatively repeatable by a pitcher whereas others (HR/FB%) are not. E.g. what are the correlations of those components from year to year?
Most of this work has been done by the guys at The Hardball Times. David Gassko and J.C. Bradbury have an article in the 2006 Annual dealing with these issues. You really should buy the book, but here are some year to year correlations for you:
K%: .77
BB%: .69
HR%: .28 (that’s not HR/FB, by the way – thats HR/TBF)
LD%: -.03 (like I said, pretty random)
GB%: .79
FB%: .73
The THT article has a ton of other great stuff, too, including more accurate baselines than I included above and correlations on a bunch of other statistics, plus the analysis that goes along with things like HR/FB rates and outs on balls in play.
if I’m understanding correctly HR% is not as useful a measure as FB% … and HR/FB% is largely a matter of luck.
Right – once you account for FB%, home run rate is almost totally random – .08 year to year correlation.
This kind of analysis is easy to lose at the bottom of 200+ comments in a game thread. I wonder if you’d consider breaking it out into its own post. I expect you’d get a nice discussion going that would educate a lot of readers.
Not a bad idea.
LOB% seems more like WHIP and ERA than GB% and K%. It shows what occured in the past, but doesn’t seem as robust in identifying future performance.
Bingo. It’s still good information to have, because if you’re looking at a guy with a low walk rate, a high strikeout rate, a low home run rate, and a high ERA, you’ll wonder what the heck is going on. That theoretical pitcher almost certainly has a ridiculously low LOB%.
Is it my imagination or does it seem like with each win that the possibility of Grover coming back INCREASES?
270,
I may be going out on a limb here, but I don’t think there’s a snowball’s chance in Hell Grover comes back next year. Bavasi will find a way to get rid of him. I just think that Bill’s had it with Grover’s mindset. I realize Bavasi said that he just provides the pieces and says nothing to the manager about using them, but when the manager never uses them at all, and you’re spending good money to have them there, it can get irritating. Hargrove’s misuse of his bench, bullpen, and other factors warrant his dismisal alone, but “wasting” the company’s money? Bavasi can put that through the FO.
Thanks for the hardballtimes link. I am sure it will provide hours of gazing at numbers for me. As it is very late on the east coast I haven’t gotten through all of your, now several, posts. Hopefully at the end of this I will come to a better understanding. But I do have to say, that all these things are a larger piece of a puzzle, as pointed out. But I don’t understand why GB% is better than FB%. A ground ball has just as much of a chance of finding a whole, as a fly ball does dropping in. Of course a grounder can never “fly” out of the park. And none of it really acconts for a pitchers ability to fool hitters and inducing outs.
Anyway, as I said it is very late and I’ve already stayed up later then I wanted. I will review the rest of the post and hopefully arise at a clearer understanding.
But I don’t understand why GB% is better than FB%. A ground ball has just as much of a chance of finding a whole, as a fly ball does dropping in. Of course a grounder can never “fly” out of the park. And none of it really acconts for a pitchers ability to fool hitters and inducing outs.
A groundball will be turned into an out approximately 61% of the time, while a flyball will be turned into an out approximately 78% of the time. The grounder actually has more of a chance of finding a hole than a flyball does of dropping in.
The issue, though, is that when a groundball “finds a hole”, its a single, which isn’t a huge deal. When a flyball “drops in”, its a double, a triple, or a home run, which is a huge deal. The run value of a home run is 1.45 runs, while the run value of a single is just .45 runs.
So, the groundball pitcher will give up more hits, but less impactful hits, than the flyball pitcher.
That’s why I said “all things being equal, the groundball pitcher is better.” But again, things are almost never equal, so I’m certainly not advocating acquiring a staff full of groundball pitchers and ignoring all the other skills.
RE 272: Ground balls actually go for hits more often than fly balls, but hardly ever for extra bases. Essentially, you’re trading a couple points of opposing OBP for a huge drop in slugging. Then you combine that with higher chances to get a DP ball when you need it, etc…
268: Most of this work has been done by the guys at The Hardball Times. David Gassko and J.C. Bradbury have an article in the 2006 Annual dealing with these issues. You really should buy the book, but here are some year to year correlations for you:
K%: .77
BB%: .69
HR%: .28 (that’s not HR/FB, by the way – thats HR/TBF)
LD%: -.03 (like I said, pretty random)
GB%: .79
FB%: .73
Excellent, thanks for both those answers (the cite and the correlations).
Wow. Nice posts Dave. Glad I checked in tonight.
I appreciate the developed series or posts here, Dave, which put your thinking and the relevant information in a compact context. While you’ve said these things before, these are the numbers _which really count_, and why they count. Numbers aren’t everything, but these numbers are among the best tools going. Knowledge+context+power.