Finnigan’s replacement, Geoff Baker
Finnigan’s departure date hasn’t been announced, which means Rizzs gets to shower him with compliments every game, but his rumored (confirmed?) replacement is Toronto Star columnist Geoff Baker. Baker’s already off the Star’s list of columnists, which hints it’ll happen soon. That also makes finding past articles harder. At times like this, I wish I had Lexis-Nexis access* but fortunately, the Blue Jays have a lovely blog, the Batter’s Box and I can point to some of their stuff. Here’s a short profile piece.
Baker’s written an anti-stathead screed (everyone was doing it) but this bit with Baker on stat geekery offers a more interesting view.
He may be most famous for the controversy his June 28, 2003 “White Jays” article sparked. Check out “Whitest team in the majors” if you’re interested.
More recently, much of the Shea Hillenbrand coverage (in which his teammates slagged him as a horrible person they were glad to be rid of and praised him as a popular and pleasant guy to have around) was Baker’s.
In any event, I’ll spare everyone a repeat rant on why replacing Finnigan with almost anyone is good for local sports coverage (though it pales compared to the looming 1-paper disaster). I’m happy to hear it’s Baker, though, as he’s written pieces critical of the local team, and Finnigan… uh… has not done that so much as the opposite.
And hey, Geoff, if you’re reading, drop us a line, we can do a Q&A, introduce you to the crowd.
* would have been handy for the book, too. Aren’t they local? Please tell me someone there reads USSM and wants us to use their outstanding research tools. We offer endorsements and frequent credits.
10-27 versus the AL West
Fourteen straight losses against AL West opponents. Or, no wins against the AL West in the second half so far in eight games.
Last win against an AL West team: June 11th, on the Road against the Angels to sweep a three-game series.
1-13 versus Oakland
2-8 versus Texas
7-5 versus Anaheim LA.
Game 119, Mariners at A’s
Pineiro vs Saarloos. I’m not sure why we should bother watching.
Comparing catcher defense: Johjima versus Rivera
I’ve been trying to ignore a Bob Finnigan column since Sunday (M’s notes: Johjima’s defense lags), but it’s not working. So I’m going to take a short break from the book rewrites and tear into this.
Kenji Johjima has done a solid job offensively in his first season of U.S. baseball, and will rate consideration for Rookie of the Year as a result.
But according to the statistics, he has not settled in as well defensively.
(breathlessly) What statistics are those, Bob?
In fact, his defense is considerably less than that of backup catcher Rene Rivera, whose offense isn’t close to Johjima’s.
The biggest disparity is in their respective catching earned-run averages — the ERA of the pitchers they catch.
Oh. Is that it? Really. I don’t expect Finnigan to do serious baseball statistical analysis, but to hang your hat on that is still disappointing. And Johjima’s defense hasn’t as amazing as we’d hoped, so I don’t expect Finnigan to shower with him praise. But this is ridiculous garbage. You might as well quote their respective MPG.
In addition, Rivera had thrown out 31.3 percent (5 of 11) of base stealers, while Johjima has thrown out 26.3 percent. (15 of 42).
Uh huh. Here’s the thing: that’s wrong. Since Saturday’s game: Saturday 1 SB (Moyer/Johjima), Sunday 2 SB (Hernandez,Green/Johjima), no SB yesterday
So when Finnigan wrote this, Johjima was at 42 SB and 21 CS. So of the 63 attempts, 21 were caught = 33% caught stealing.
It looks like he just read the stat lines as SB = attempts, CS = caught stealing, and then still managed to read the stats (or was working off… I’m not sure what he would have had to work off to get those numbers) and do the math both wrong. That takes some doing.
Plus, that’s a ridiculously small sample size.
But back to his basic argument on catcher ERA.
Yet breaking down the ERA by individual pitcher, some of the differences between Johjima and Rivera are stark:
Felix Hernandez: Johjima 4.73, Rivera 2.94; Gil Meche: Johjima 5.21, Rivera 2.17; Jamie Moyer (into Saturday night): Johjima 4.51, Rivera 3.16; J.J. Putz: Johjima 2.88, Rivera 0.00; Jarrod Washburn, Johjima 4.57, Rivera 1.32.
This would be a good way to compare the two catchers if that statistic meant anything, but it doesn’t. It’s the Game-Winning RBI of defensive statistics. Especially given the small sample sizes involved – Rivera catches a guy at Safeco, he’s going to look better than Johjima catching the same dude at Colorado. Glancing over the game logs, I see he had one start at Boston, and that’s pretty much it for severe hitters parks. I’d run the numbers but there’s no point.
There’s no point because catcher ERA is essentially meaningless. Seriously. All that stuff about calling a game and whatnot? Barely matters. It’s something to fill the three hours of broadcast time and, in this case, a couple of column inches. Not only is ERA not a particularly good stat to measure pitcher performance with, but its problems are magnified when you attempt to slice it and assign credit or blame based on the results.
Keith Woolner did a study back in 1999 (“Field General or Backstop?“) and followed that up with a fairly mammoth simulation-based work in 2002.
I’ll summarize the argument over catcher ERA:
Pro-catcher-game-calling: a catcher’s effect on the game is masked because there’s so much noise
Skeptics: okay, but that means it can’t be that huge
It’s a lot like the clutch hitting argument. There are clutch hits, but the traditionally defined clutch hitter – someone who performs better than expected in whatever you define clutch situations as – isn’t a common species of hitter. If there are hitters who have some ability to do better, that ability is lost in the noise.
Woolner’s conclusion is well-stated:
[T]here is very little practical difference between saying there is no ability, and that there is an ability that can’t be reliably detected. Knowing that there’s no way that CERA or similar measures can indicate ability, and that any other test or scouting report can’t be validated against actual results, means that there’s no actionable knowledge to be gained.
Catcher ERA is interesting, but you should regard it in the same way you look at the random stats they display on the scoreboard (“Mike Morse is hitting .417 in home games this year”).
Now, is Rivera a better defensive catcher than Johjima? Sure, why not. But putting Rivera behind the plate doesn’t turn a bad pitcher good. Any catcher who could reliably shave a run off the score every time they got a start would be the best defensive catcher in the history of baseball and would make a kajillion dollars. That catcher doesn’t exist, and never has.
Update: It’s Finnigan, folks. Finn-i-gan. Don’t crack on him for doing crappy research and/or math if you can’t spell his name right.
Loss on loss
Behind Oakland by only a couple of games on the fourth, I wrote
These three games at home against the A’s aren’t must-win games. But they’re certainly close. A sweep of the A’s would put the M’s a game back in the divisional standings and into the thick of it. A sweep at the hand of the A’s would put the M’s six games back of the A’s with two other teams between them and the season running out. 1-2 would be almost as bad: every day that goes by without making up ground is a day the team falls behind.
Win, team, win.
Since then, facing the divisional opponents they needed to knock off to climb up, they’ve gone
Loss, 5-2
Loss, 5-2
Loss, 7-6
Loss, 8-2
Loss, 14-7
Loss, 5-4
Loss, 10-6
Loss, 5-4
Hope’s back has been broken. There’s no way the M’s can compete for a playoff slot if they can’t beat their divisional opponents.
And coming up, we’ve got the Angels, the Yankees, the Angels before another Tampa Bay rest stop. This may hurt.
Game 118, Mariners at Athletics
7:05, another divisional matchup. Oooooh boy.
LHP Washburn v LHP Zito.
Sexson out tonight, at least
Broussard will start today. Times article, which doesn’t have any info.
Word on the street is his wife’s going to deliver twins through emergency c-section so he flew out to be with her. I hope it goes well.
Update: the transaction’s hit the wires, he’s been placed on the bereavement list. As msb notes in the comments, Morse has been called up to take his roster spot.
Looking ahead: Bryan LaHair
Since the major league club is just playing out the string for the last 45 games, I’m going to increase my posting focus on the minor leagues and guys on the farm who are worth discussing. The Future Forty updates give us a chance to talk about these guys, but I’d like to go a little more in depth on a slightly more regular basis for the next few weeks.
Today, we’ll kick this future oriented focus off with a look at a guy who is doing his darndest to make me look like an idiot; Bryan LaHair.
LaHair has bounced on and off the end of the Future Forty the last few years, always hanging around as a guy who did enough to keep his name in the hat but never doing anything well enough to get excited about. He was a 39th round pick in the 2002 draft, and the Mariners signed him a year later as a draft-and-follow, after they allowed him to play a year at Junior College to evaluate his progress. Don’t let the 39th round pick stuff scare you – they liked what they saw in his swing, and paid him like a mid-round draft selection.
He debuted in Everett in 2003 and was, well, not good. He hit .244/.286/.343, struck out in 18.3% of his plate appearances while walking in just 5.2% of his PA. He didn’t counteract the poor approach at the plate with any power, either, hitting just two home runs. Just 20-years-old, a poor showing against college pitchers in a couple hundred at-bats isn’t a big deal, but he didn’t get his pro career off to the best start.
He spent most of 2004 in low-A Wisconsin as a 21-year-old and showed some improvement, hitting .279/.323/.427 in 262 at-bats, but there were positives and negatives. His walk rate edged up to a still bad 5.7%, but that was offset by a skyrocketing K rate, which jumped to 23.6%. He still didn’t show much home run power, and the scouting report on him basically read as a guy who hit the other way the whole time and never turned on fastballs. However, he had learned to hit the ball in the gaps, and 29 of his 73 hits (39%) went for extra bases, suggesting there was untapped power in his swing.
2005 brought him to high-A Inland Empire, and while 22 year olds are often found in the California League, you really need to hit well if you’re a little old for the league and are in a hitters paradise like the Cal League. LaHair responded to the challenge and made significant gains in his game, though perhaps not as much as you’d think looking at his raw numbers. His BB% jumped to 9% and he whacked 22 home runs, showing flashes of real home run power for the first time. However, the jump in home runs coincided with a drop in doubles, and his XBH/H rate was just 33%. More of his well hit balls were leaving the yard, but he was driving the ball less often than he did in Wisconsin. Some of the improvement in his power was real, but the context of the Cal League overstated the power surge.
In 2006, he began the year at Double-A San Antonio and we saw some regression in the power department. He held the BB% steady at a 9.6% level, which is okay but not great, but he again reverted to slapping the ball the other way and hitting a lot of singles. While his .293/.371/.428 line might look solid enough, just 27% of his hits were extra base knocks. That’s just not going to cut it for a first baseman who doesn’t have prodigious walk rates. The M’s, in their notable aggressive fashion, promoted LaHair to Tacoma in June anyways, and he made something of an early splash by hitting for a high average from the day he got off the plane.
Here are his monthly splits for first two months in Tacoma after being promoted:
June: .327/.391/.436, 55 AB, 6 BB, 11 K, 18 H, 3 2B, 1 HR (22% XBH/H)
July: .308/.379/.418, 91 AB, 11 BB, 28 K, 28 H, 7 2B, 1 HR (28% XBH/H)
The high average was nice and he was even posting the best walk rate of his career, so there were definitely things to like from a 23-year-old playing in Triple-A. However, the strikeout rate (26.7%) was also the highest of his career, and his power numbers were very poor. Not only was he not driving the ball with any kind of authority, but the balls he was driving were not clearing the wall, leading to an ISO that would be fine if he were a gold glove middle infielder, but not much else.
I left him off the August update of the Future Forty, and in conversations, the comparisons I’ve been making are to guys like Greg Dobbs, while Jeff Sullivan called him the new John Mabry. That was pretty much the skillset he’d established for himself. Some walks, gap power, average contact rate, struggles vs lefties, and not a great defender at first base. That’s pretty much the definition of a replacement level talent.
Then, August rolled around.
.354/.426/.792, 48 at bats, 6 BB, 8 K, 17 H, 0 2B, 7 HR (42% XBH/H)
After hitting eight home runs in his first 368 at-bats of 2006, he’s gone deep seven times in his last 48 at-bats. He went deep four times over the weekend, and a couple of them were absolute bombs. He’s actually pulling the ball now, and the results are obvious.
However, we have to note that, again, as the home runs have gone up, the doubles have disappeared. A 42% XBH/H rate is good, but its not earth shattering. Most legitimate 1B prospects show similar or better power throughout their minor league careers. The fact that all seven of his XBH in August have cleared the wall is a sign of increased power, but it doesn’t make him the new Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard. He’s still a gap power guy, but if he’s really learned to get around on fastballs, he’s a lot better than I’ve been giving him credit for.
It’s just 48 at-bats, so let’s wait and see how he finishes the season. His overall line at Tacoma is still not fantastic for a 23-year-old first baseman in the PCL, and I still see a lot of similarities between LaHair and Greg Dobbs. However, the criticisms I’m leveling against LaHair are the same ones I was using to explain why I didn’t think Lyle Overbay was going to hit enough to be a major league regular, and he’s more than shown that I was way off the mark where he was concerned.
So yes, LaHair looks to have taken a step forward in the last two weeks, and is projecting better now than I’ve given him credit for. If he continues to pull the ball and doesn’t revert back to his slap-the-other-way approach, there’s a chance he could turn into a Lyle Overbay type of hitter. He has zero star potential, and his weaknesses (including a total inability to hit LHP’s at the moment) are going to make it less likely that he gets a real shot in the majors, but it’d be a big boost to the M’s organization if LaHair’s improvement was real, and they had a near-ready major league average first baseman who could swing the bat from the left side.
He might be Greg Dobbs or John Mabry. Or, he might be Lyle Overbay, Raul Ibanez, or Adam LaRoche. The last two weeks are enough for me to admit that there’s more potential there than I’ve given him credit for.
Game 117, Mariners at Rangers
5:05, radio only, because why would anyone want to watch an evening game featuring Felix Hernandez against Kevin Millwood? Errrghhhh.
RF-L Ichiro
SS-R Betancourt
3B-R Beltre
LF-L Ibanez
1B-R Sexson
DH-L Broussard
C-R Johjima
2B-R Willie “The Ignitor” Bloomquist
CF-R Jones
Texas responds with
CF-B Mathews
SS-R Young
LF-R Lee
1B-B Teixeira
3B-L Blalock
RF-R DeRosa
DH-L Stairs
2B-R Kinsler
C-R Barajas
So let’s play the “swap ’em or not” game: which of the Texas guys would you trade for their Mariner equivalent, contract included? And it’s not Kinsler-Bloomquist, consider Kinsler-Lopez for the sake of having to think at all.
Game 116, Mariners at Rangers
5:05. LHP Moyer vs RHP Volquez. See Dave’s comment for the scoop.
DH-L Ichiro!
2B-R Lopez
3B-R Beltre
LF-L Ibanez
1B-R Sexson
C-R Johjima
SS-R Betancourt
RF-R Willy “The Ignitor” Bloomquist
CF-R Jones
So the bench is DH/1B-L Broussard, DH/1B-R Perez, C-R Rivera, 1B/3B/LF/PH-L Dobbs
Here’s a question for you, good readers. Imagine you’re the manager of the M’s, and Ichiro’s been dragging lately. You’d like to keep him in the lineup, but not have him run around in the heat, so you’ve decided to DH him for a day. What’s the best lineup you can field given the existing Mariner roster as it exists today (no calling up Tacoma players)?