Game 110, ’27 Yankees at ’62 Mets
RHP Joe Blanton vs. RHP Gil Meche, 1:05pm. FSN.
I’m guessing traffic is pretty fun right now for those on the way to the game.
The end of Carl
I was hoping this would go up on the Mariners’ transaction wire so I could point to the official news, but I’ve waited too long already. Everett cleared waivers and was released on Thursday. He won’t be showing up in Tacoma, if you were worried about that. Unfortunately, it looks like he also won’t be eating playing time for one of our divisional rivals.
I don’t really care about, though. He’s gone. May this debacle serve as yet another example that buying clubhouse leadership, grit, and hustle is a fool’s errand. I hope that this one finally causes the lesson to stick.
Which reminds me, I posted these and then the post got nuked in the great server crash. I present — memories of better days.
Game 109, A’s at M’s
Doh.
Big Board Update
If you’re feeling down about last night’s pathetic effort vs. Oakland, cheer up — there’s a new Big Board in town. I’m sorry it has taken so long, but between extern, school, a new computer, and a new baby I’ve been busy. In any event, here it is. As always, leave a comment if something looks amiss (bad link, wrong handedness, etc.).
If you think the page itself looks a bit off, you’d be right. I’m still playing around with Office for Mac, and I know it doesn’t look quite right in Safari. I suspect that’s going to be the case for other browsers as well. My hope is that you can deal with the minor asthetic issues and focus on the content instead.
Game 108, Athletics at Mariners
LHP Barry Zito v LHP Jarrod Washburn
I’m always leary when the talking heads on ESPN1-4 describe any particular game as a must-win. It’s along season, and there are many games to play. These three games at home against the A’s aren’t must-win games. But they’re certainly close. A sweep of the A’s would put the M’s a game back in the divisional standings and into the thick of it. A sweep at the hand of the A’s would put the M’s six games back of the A’s with two other teams between them and the season running out. 1-2 would be almost as bad: every day that goes by without making up ground is a day the team falls behind.
Win, team, win.
Or, you could always play Bloomquist in center.
Wedded Bliss Awaits
Peter White is alive: I have proof.
Our prodigal author (well, the one who isn’t me) has had his proposal accepted, and the happy couple will be tying the knot next May. If I can go all style pages on you, allow me to point out that Pedro proposed while hiking with his intended in Rocky Mountain National Park.
Congrats to Peter and the future Mrs. Jackie White. Set a course, Mr. Data, for romance.
Future Forty Update for August
The Future Forty has received its monthly update. There are some notable departures in this version, as I’ve decided that its time to give organizational opportunity a little more weight in the rankings than I have in the past. Opportunity is obviously vital to a prospects success, and if the organization isn’t going to give him one, we necessarily have to downgrade the likelyhood that he’s going to become a major league player.
So, with that in mind, Guillermo Quiroz and Bobby Livingston have both been removed from the list. Yes, they’re probably better bets to have major league careers than some of the players listed, but at this point, it’s almost certain that those major league careers won’t come with the Mariners, and neither has any real trade value, making it unlikely that the Mariners will ever get anything of value out of either player. Also departing are Shin-Soo Choo (traded), George Sherrill (established major leaguer), and Michael Saunders (not as good as some other end of list guys).
Replacing them are some new names, as well as a mea culpa. A few months ago, I booted Luis Valbuena from the Future Forty as he hadn’t hit in several years and his defense was nothing to write home about. Well, pretty much starting the day after that, he started to hit, and hit well. He earned a promotion out of the Midwest League, and is now trying to hold his own as a 20-year-old in high-A. So, sorry Luis, I never should have dismissed you in the first place. Welcome back. Joining him as newcomers or returners to the list are Michael Wilson (numbers too good to ignore right now), Kuo-Hui Lo (interesting young OF prospect), Carlos Peguero (Wladimir Balentien part two?), and Anthony Butler (solid arm, showing decent stuff in pro debut).
You’ll notice that the list got quite a bit younger. The top levels of the system are really being thinned out by promotion and trade. This isn’t a problem, as this is exactly what a farm system is for, but the bulk of the talent in the minors is now several years away. Among current minor leaguers, the only ones you could realistically expect to contribute the rest of the year would be Chris Snelling, Eric O’Flaherty, and Francisco Cruceta, and none of them would play major roles for the big club. I’ve categorized only 7 of the 32 minor leaguers on the Future Forty as being in one of the top four tiers of prospects. The guys who are close to the majors are probably role players, and the guys with talent to be everyday players are several years away. The M’s farm system is going to be ranked quite low again this offseason.
However, that shouldn’t cause us to overlook the fact that the farm system is doing its job – stocking the major league club with young, effective, cheap talent. A huge portion of the M’s success this season can be tied directly to the players the farm system promoted in the last 12-18 months. We won’t be seeing another wave of talent like the one we saw get to Seattle in the last year, but we don’t need to.
One player specific comment, since the guy has been generating some buzz lately for his improved play.
I’m a known critic of Wladimir Balentien. In the past, his approach at the plate was so terrible that finding a major leaguer who had succeeded with his mentality and skillset was darn near impossible. I kept comparing him to Hensley “Bam Bam” Muelens, and while we acknowledged the potential was there, kept reminding everyone that the risk was even higher. Until he learned to control the strike zone and make better contact, his ability to hit major league pitching was going to be neutralized.
So, in the last month, Wladimir Balentien apparently got the memo. During July, he drew 24 walks and struck out 25 times in 93 at-bats. This is a guy who drew 33 walks all of last season. His 2005 walk rate was 6.1%. In July, his walk rate was 26%. That’s a ridiculous difference, and there’s no chance it was a fluke. Wlad has clearly worked on his patience at the plate, working counts, and laying off pitches out of the strike zone.
However, it has come at a high cost. Balentien’s calling card has been his power, and that is the one tool he has that projects to the major leagues. He’s going to live and die by how often he crushes the baseball. And while the walks went through the roof, the power took the elevator to the ground floor. In July, just 7 of his 24 wents went for extra bases, or a 29% mark. For the rest of the season, 31 of his 65 hits had gone for extra bases, or 47%. That difference is just as significant as the walk rate. 29% XBH/H in the minors is barely acceptable for a player with a broad base of skills; for a guy whose power is his only plus tool, it’s disaster.
In the last month, we’ve seen Balentien essentially convert himself from being Hensley Muelens into being Rich Becker. While the improved walk rate is an extremely positive development, it’s hard to think that its a coincidence that his power took a nosedive when his approach at the plate changed. I’ve often referred to skillsets as a sliding scale – the more you move one set of skills, other skills are often negatively impacted. Wlad needs to show that he can both walk and hit for power at the same time.
As always, feel free to use this thread as a catch-all for minor league questions, and I’ll try to answer as many as I can.
Off Day Stuff
Brandon Morrow, the M’s recent 1st round pick, worked three more innings yesterday down in Arizona: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K (boxscore). Dave would tell you not to get worked up about stats generated in Arizona, and he’d be right. What’s more important here is that Morrow is pitching, and worked his longest outing since signing. Another familiar name, that of Jorge Campillo, also worked three innings in his attempt to rehab his way back to the majors.
Speaking of Dave, he predicted a few weeks back that the M’s would be in touch with former ESPN broadcaster Harold Reynolds. Sure enough, Finnigan reports today that Randy Adamack (M’s VP for Communications) called Reynolds last week “on a personal level,” but that the subject of future employment did come up.
I also like this quote from Jarrod Washburn, from the News Tribune (and elsewhere, I’m sure):
With temperatures once again hitting triple digits, pitcher Jarrod Washburn wasn’t at all bothered that his Wednesday assignment was charting pitches of the day’s starter, Felix Hernandez.
Why? He got to chart them while watching television in the air-conditioned clubhouse.
“In this kind of heat, we really ought to start Jamie Moyer – he’s older and closer to death, anyway,†Washburn deadpanned.
Finally, the PI reports that Rafael Soriano is ready to come off the DL tomorow. Woo.
Mateo, Bane of the Bullpen; or, Welcome Back, Rafael Soriano
Sometimes people ask me why my blood pressure readings spike when Juio Mateo pitches late in close games.
To understand why, we must have a gander at Mateo’s numbers. But we also must understand that Rafael Soriano is slated to come off the disabled list tomorrow.
Soriano hasn’t pitched since June 28, but with him healthy, the Mariners simply have the best relief corps in a division full of good bullpens. Even without him, the team has some lights-out arms.
Small sample size caveats apply, but look at the strikeouts per nine inning rates of these guys:
J.J. Putz 11.67
Mark Lowe 10.66
Rafael Soriano 9.99
George Sherrill 9.87
Of those four, the highest ERA and WHIP belong to Sherrill, at 2.90 and 1.23 respectively. Lowe and Putz have allowed fewer than one baserunner per inning, with WHIP at .87 and .79 respectively. They miss bats, and hitters miss the feeling of getting on base.
Then there is southpaw Eric O’Flaherty, who is tearing up Double A San Antonio with a 1.02 ERA, a strikeout per inning and a left arm that threatens to replace Jake Woods as the second lefty.
To give some perspective on this, Julio Mateo’s WHIP is 1.62. Compared to Lowe, he’s giving up baserunners at a time-and-a-half rate.
Here’s another fun comparison. Hitters are batting .307 against him, getting on base at a .372 clip and slugging .482, for an OPS of .850.
This means that the average American League hitter, facing Mateo, suddenly becomes roughly equivalent to Mark Teixeira.
Barring injury, the bullpen ought to be a real strength. Julio Mateo ought not have the opportunity to enter one-run ballgames in the eighth inning unless Putz has cholera, Soriano becomes a leper, and Sherrill and Lowe are fistfighting over a girl.
They ask: why does my blood pressure rise when Julio Mateo enters a close game? I ask: doesn’t yours?
Game 107, Mariners at Orioles
Happy Felix Day!
The Boy King takes the hill today against another young pitcher, Erik Bedard, in Bikram Yoga-like conditions. Somebody make sure Felix drinks plenty of fluids, and not those Freddy Garcia-style fluids, either. The M’s went 8-7 against the Yankees, Jays, Red Sox and Indians. They need to make hay against teams like the Orioles to have a shot.
I know it’s too early for scoreboard watching, but I’ll note that Oakland has Esteban Loiaza (who has been atrocious this year) going against the Angels’ Kelvim Esobar. The Rangers are booting Boof Bonser and the Twins around.
I’ll post the lineup when it’s available.
Late edit: Jeff’s such a liar. He never posted the lineup.