Future Forty 2.5
The Future Forty has been updated for September, and with it comes a minor yet significant change. At the suggestion of one our commenters during last month’s thread, the “Stock” column, which never really filled any useful role, has been replaced by a “Present” column, which shows how valuable that player could be expected to be in the major leagues today.
The goal of the Present column is to show just how close to contributing to the Mariners a player on the farm is, and perhaps help answer some of the questions for why players with high reward rankings aren’t yet considered projected regulars. As you’ll note looking through the list, the Mariners have a significant amount of talented players in the lower levels, but they’re almost all extremely raw, and each are going to need a lot of development before they can contribute to the big league team. Adding in a Present Value column will hopefully help give an idea for where a player is on the development path.
Please keep age in mind when looking at the Present Value column. Jose Lopez is tagged with a current value of 6, but for a 22-year-old, that’s pretty darn good. Despite the fact that he hasn’t hit a home run in about four years, Lopez shouldn’t be viewed as any kind of disappointment. He’s going through the normal growing pains of a young player adjusting to the major leagues.
Beyond the new column, we also welcome three new players at the expense of three well known names. Clint Nageotte, Jesse Foppert, and Scott Atchison bid adieu, and their removal from the Future Forty could be followed by a removal from the organization this winter. Replacing the three pitchers are first baseman Bryan LaHair, who we’ve talked about, and long term projects Alex Liddi and Gerardo Avila.
Liddi and Avila, along with current Future Forty members Carlos Peguero, Greg Halman, and Kuo-Hui Lo represent the next wave of young hitting talent the Mariners have in the lower levels of the organization. All these guys are just kids, many years from Seattle, but all have shown flashes of major league talent. If you’re looking for a lower level hitter to get excited about, you should probably pick one of these five.
However, these guys all have something else in common – they were pushed to levels they weren’t ready to handle, and full season ball pitchers exposed serious flaws in their hitting approach. Take a look at this little chart:
Halman (Everett): 116 AB, 3 BB, 32 K
Peguero (Everett): 93 AB, 2 BB, 34 K
Avila (Wisconsin): 88 AB, 1 BB, 22 K
Liddi (Wisconsin): 38 AB, 1 BB, 8 K
That’s 339 at-bats with a combined 7 walks and 96 strikeouts. Holy Reggie Abercrombie.
Now, it’s pretty easy to dismiss these numbers, since these kids are all very young. Avila is 20, Peguero is 19, Halman just turned 19, and Liddi just turned 18. These were aggressive promotions (shockingly) for kids who had not spent more than a few months playing baseball stateside, and while the results weren’t what you would hope for, it was also fairly predictable.
As we’ve discussed before, Bill Bavasi has instituted a very aggressive approach to pushing minor leaguers through the system, causing them to fail before they reach the major league level. It works in some instances, as the players respond to the hardships and become better for it, but it also runs the risk of slowing a player’s development by creating bad habits, especially in approach at the plate.
The Mariners currently have a line-up full of hitters who attack the ball and don’t wait for their pitch, and with their aggressive promotions, they’re breeding another group of swing-at-anything-hackers. At some point, the Mariners are going to have to admit that a disciplined approach at the plate has tangible value and start taking steps to instill that into their young players. Right now, the organization stresses aggressiveness at the plate, believing that patience will come as a player gains experience, but the team needs to be proactive in helping their players develop an approach at the plate that will lead to successful hitting.
As talented as Peguero, Halman, Liddi, and Avila might be, they’re not going to become major leauge players without a serious improvement in the way they approach hitting. As we saw with Wladimir Balentien this year, that can be much easier to say than to do. If the organization is not willing to help these kids learn how to identify when to swing and when to keep the bat on their shoulder when these kids are teenagers, they’re going to regenerate the offense we see now at the major league level, and that’s not in the best interests of the players or the team.
Somehow, someway, the Mariners are going to have to change their instructional techniques. They can’t keep relying on pure athletic talent to develop major league hitters. These kids need help, and they aren’t getting the instruction they need from the coaching staff.
Does that mean you expect Valbuena to start next year in the Cali league? In considering him a candidate, I was talking about starting him in Double-A next year. Do you think that’s unlikely?
No, I think a a Double-A assignment next year is totally realistic, but also not that aggressive. He turns 21 in a few months, and it’s not at all rare for a 21-year-old to begin a season in the Texas League.
Re: pitchers, the Ms were willing to promote guys all the way from Latin-American summer leagues to full-season ball (Escalona, Blanco) over the past few years. They also had 2 relievers start the year in Inland Empire and end up in the majors. True, they haven’t been aggressive with as many pitchers as hitters, but couldn’t that be more of a personnel issue rather than a philosophical one? There weren’t that many pitchers the organization was really high on coming into this year.
Escalona and Blanco aren’t much in the way of prospects, so I don’t think I’d call their assignments “aggressive promotions” as much as I would “filling a need”. Lowe and O’Flaherty weren’t aggressively promoted until they dominated the levels they were assigned to, and their initial assignments were normal. They earned their promotions. That’s a striking difference from what we’ve seen the club do with its hitting prospects.
Dave, I read a piece earlier this year about teams (notably the Rockies) making extensive use of video i-pods to watch opposing pitchers whenever it’s convenient. Does this represent any kind of leap forward in “learning” pitch recognition? Or is it used mostly to study pitch sequences to improve the hitters’ approach?
It seems to me that pitch recognition is a matter of repetitions.
Fine by me, Dave. I expect that if the M’s Upper Politburo decides that Bavasi needs to be tossed from the Kremlin window, it would be settled by December- so waiting a bit after the season makes sense, anyway.
It seems to me that the “aggressive promotion” strategy MAY contribute to a players tendency to hack away at the plate, but it doesn’t HAVE to be that way – if the coaching staff at every level of the organization would TEACH the patient approach at the plate, and TEACH the players that pitchers at every level have to throw you strikes, then that approach could work it’s way up to the big club. I think the problem isn’t that the players struggle when promoted, it’s that they learn to hack their way out of it.
Dave- Is there a single person responsible for coordination of hitting philosophies throughout the organization? Or do players get taught different approaches toward “patience” at different levels of the system?
Thoughts on Chris Minaker? He started out at Everett and ended up at Wisconsin, not doing too badly, though his sample size is small.
Actually Doug Fister is another one I’d be curious to know your thoughts on. He started out as a starter then got moved to the bullpen.
It seems to me that pitch recognition is a matter of repetitions.
It can be improved upon, but to a large degree, hand-eye coordination and reaction times are a skill that some have more than others.
Dave- Is there a single person responsible for coordination of hitting philosophies throughout the organization? Or do players get taught different approaches toward “patience†at different levels of the system?
Glenn Adams was the hitting coordinator, who travels around and generally makes sure that everyone is on the same page, but he won’t be brought back next year. The M’s don’t have anything in place to insure that all the coaches are teaching the same things, and in many cases, that doesn’t happen.
Thoughts on Chris Minaker? He started out at Everett and ended up at Wisconsin, not doing too badly, though his sample size is small.
Not a prospect.
Actually Doug Fister is another one I’d be curious to know your thoughts on. He started out as a starter then got moved to the bullpen.
Kinda interesting, someone to keep an eye on, but a project more than anything else.
future forty is great concept, how long has this feature been a part of ussm ? can somebody articulate some of the great predictions and not so great prognastications from Forty lists of previous seasons ?
future forty is great concept, how long has this feature been a part of ussm ? can somebody articulate some of the great predictions and not so great prognastications from Forty lists of previous seasons ?
I’ve been doing the Future Forty since before USSM existed, and it’s been a permanent part of the site since our inception 3+ years ago.
I don’t really think the Future Forty gives any prognostications, but if you’re looking for players we’ve identified well before it was popular, I’d say Felix counts. USSM essentially introduced King Felix, including inventing the moniker, to the general public.
As for guys I’ve been wildly wrong about, I was very skeptical of Adam Jones’ ability to hit after he was drafted, including making several references to my belief that his major league career would come as a pitcher, and he’s shown me to be completely wrong on that issue.
Not often that I hope you’re wrong, Dave, but I hope you’re wrong about Minaker.
Not often that I hope you’re wrong, Dave, but I hope you’re wrong about Minaker.
I hope I’m wrong about everyone in the system that I don’t think is going to make it. I hope I’m wrong about Wlad, Valbuena, Johnson, Tui, and Wilson.
Minaker, though, I’m not sure what we’re supposed to like there. He’s like a slow Willie Bloomquist.
Minor point, I know, but I disagree. I think that comparison sells him short. I like his approach at the plate, he’s solid in the field, and he’s got a good deal more power than Willie ever did (perhaps excepting Willie’s first 200 at-bats at Lancaster, but even that was driven by a hell of a lot of doubles). I saw him play a few times in college, and think there’s more there than any scouting report I’ve ever seen gives him credit for. Liked his bat and glove when I saw him in Cedar Rapids this summer, too.
But then again, nobody’s ever called him a prospect, so I’m probably just hoping the Mariners got a minor steal. I was psyched when they drafted him, though.
——I’d still take Morrow over Lincecum. I know I’m in the minority, but Lincecum’s command is a problem, even though his absurd strikeout rate is definitely tantalizing.—–
Doesn’t Morrow also have command issues?
Apologies for needlessly separating this post, but Dave, what’s the deal with Butler’s stuff? You’ve said that he’s a soft-tosser–under 90–and that’s what the reports before the draft said as well. But BA says he’s in the low-nineties now?
I find it encouraging that Butler’s command has really improved his past three starts. Overall, his walk rate will look troublesomely, even with the lenience to very young pitchers, but perhaps something clicked recently and maybe he’ll be able to carry this over into next season.
Doesn’t Morrow also have command issues?
Not nearly to the degree that Lincecum does. Even when Timmy is rolling, he’s walking 4-5 guys a game and throwing 120-130 pitches.
Apologies for needlessly separating this post, but Dave, what’s the deal with Butler’s stuff? You’ve said that he’s a soft-tosser–under 90–and that’s what the reports before the draft said as well. But BA says he’s in the low-nineties now?
I don’t recall saying he’s a soft tosser. The scouting reports on him that I’ve gotten have him at 87-91 with a big curveball that’s an outpitch when it’s on. An 18-year-old who stands 6’7 and already sits at 87-91 isn’t a soft tosser in anyone’s book, including mine.
I find it encouraging that Butler’s command has really improved his past three starts. Overall, his walk rate will look troublesomely, even with the lenience to very young pitchers, but perhaps something clicked recently and maybe he’ll be able to carry this over into next season.
It’s the Northwest League and it’s a really small sample. There’s no reason to let performances dictate your excitement level. That said, Butler got pretty terrific reviews from scouts who saw him, so there are reasons to be excited about his debut. I just wouldn’t get excited based on the numbers. Short-season League stats don’t really mean anything.
Dave,
Didn’t the M’s think they had a SPECIAL personality in Tillman when they drafted him. All you had to do was check out his myspace account. It would be great to see Morrow, Tillman and Butler all at Inland next year at the same time. Fun rotation to watch.
Any thoughts on Michael Garciaparra? He only got in 136 ABs in Tacoma, but did have an OBP of .422.
Any thoughts on Michael Garciaparra?
He’s not a major leaguer. He has zero power, which major league pitchers would exploit by throwing the ball right down the middle and forcing him to swing the bat. A good eye isn’t useful if you can’t hit the ball, and Michael Garciaparra can’t hit the ball.
Speaking of Michael Garciaparra, Ryan Howard went in Round 5 of 2001 We could have had him but picked Garciaparra, Rene Rivera, Laszaro Abreau, Michael Wilson, Tim Merritt and Bobby Livingston, all before the Phillies picked Howard in the fifth round.
I know lots of other teams could say the same, as they could with Pujols, but we sure had a slew of terrible drafts–at least that seems to be turning
Well, JJ isn’t getting overused in these meaningless September games…
Whoops, wrong thread open. *blushes*
We could have had David Wright instead of Garciaparra