Long Term Contracts
Since the Mariners have giant holes in their rotation going into this offseason, there has been a significant amount of talk about the M’s getting two pitchers in free agency to rebuild the rotation around. Ignoring Daisuke Matsuzaka’s situation for a minute, the prominent names mentioned are Jason Schmidt, Barry Zito, and Adam Eaton. Most fans seem to be in favor of breaking the bank and acquiring as many big name pitchers as the team can get, regardless of the years or dollars it takes to sign them.
The purpose of this post is to point out the fact that strategy is a recipe for disaster. For whatever reasons, people have not yet been convinced of the ridiculous risk that is taken when signing a free agent pitcher to a four or five year contract for large amounts of money. The dreams of having an ace dance in the heads of fans and general managers alike, but in most cases, you end up with a crippling contract. The success rate of 4+ year deals for free agent starting pitchers is, to put it bluntly, horrible.
Here’s a look at every current pitcher in MLB who signed a contract of four years or longer that bought out his free agency. Players re-signed one year before they hit the open market count for this purpose.
Bartolo Colon: 4 years, $51 million from 2004-2007.
He was lousy in 2004, good in 2005, lousy and injured in 2006, and it doesn’t look good for 2007. His velocity, and subsequently his strikeout rate, have dropped through the floor, and he’s not the same pitcher he used to be. For $51 million, the Angels got one above average season, one and a half bad years, and are on the hook for $14 million next year to a guy who is unlikely to be very effective.
A.J. Burnett: 5 years, $55 million from 2006-2010.
There’s still time for this story to be written, but after one year, it doesn’t look so hot. They got 100 solid innings out of Burnett this year, but concerns about his arm were well founded, and after several trips to the disabled list, he still doesn’t look like a guy you want to be committing long term to.
Mike Hampton: 8 years, $121 million from 2001-2008.
The contract that keeps on giving. Did you know the Braves paid Hampton $13.5 million this year, owe him $14.5 million next year, and $15 million in 2008? This is one of the worst contracts in professional sports history.
Tim Hudson: 4 years, $47 million from 2006-2009.
Hudson’s pitched better than his ERA suggests, but his peripherals have never been strong beyond his home run rate, and he’s battled injuries the past two years. He’s no longer the 240 inning horse he was in Oakland, and he looks more like a midrotation guy than a frontline starter now. Needless to say, the Braves aren’t looking forward to paying him $32 million for the next three seasons.
Derek Lowe: 4 years, $36 million from 2005-2008.
Finally, a deal that looks good right now. I hated this deal when the Dodgers signed it, but Lowe has pitched far better than I expected. He’s cut his walk rates, maintained his ridiculous groundball dominance, and generally been one of the better starting pitchers in the National League the past two seasons. Despite my initial misgivings, this looks like a bargain in retrospect.
Jason Schmidt: 4 years, $30 million from 2002-2005.
This became a 5 year, $40 million deal when the Giants picked up their option on Schmidt last winter. Despite dealing with injury problems last year, Schmidt’s contract was a steal for the Giants. He gave them three all-star caliber seasons before getting hurt, then has pitched solidly if not spectacularly the past two years. This was a great deal for San Francisco.
Jarrod Washburn: 4 years, $37.5 million from 2006-2009.
We hated this deal when the M’s signed it, and we don’t like it any more now. Washburn’s a back end starter whose only real quality is his durability. They’re paying far too much for a mediocre performer.
Pedro Martinez: 4 years, $53 million from 2005-2008.
This one is tough to evaluate. Pedro was great for the Mets last year, and he’s been solid for them this year when healthy, but long term durability was always the question. He’s only thrown 122 innings this year, and he hasn’t pitched like a frontline starter even when healthy. They got one great year from Pedro, but they’re going to be paying for that one great year for several more. Not a great deal, not a terrible deal.
Chan Ho Park: 5 years, $65 million from 2002-2006.
I don’t think I need to write much here. This contract was a debacle from day one.
Kevin Millwood: 5 years, $60 million from 2006-2010.
Millwood’s pitching almost exactly as he did last year for Cleveland, except his extraordinarily high strand rate has predictably disappeared, and his ERA has risen back into the 4.5 range. Considering the Rangers defense and their home park, that shouldn’t be a big surprise. Millwood’s a better pitcher than most people think, but he’s not a great fit for Texas. They overpaid, and there’s a good chance that they won’t be able to give his contract away by the time its over.
Javier Vazquez: 4 years, $45 million from 2004-2007.
A total failure in New York, then shipped to Arizona, where he spent a mediocre year before demanding another trade and ending up in Chicago. He’s settled in as a career underachiever who is massively overpaid. He’s a decent innings eater, but he’s not worth anything close to his contract.
Jose Contreras: 4 years, $32 million from 2003-2006.
Had half a good year with New York, then was lousy for a year with both NY and Chicago, then was good for Chicago last year, and has been decent for them this year. Not a model of consistency, but there’s been more good than bad with Contreras, and overall, the White Sox have gotten their money’s worth out of him.
Mike Mussina: 6 years, $88.5 million from 2001-2006.
Mussina hasn’t been the same guy he was in Baltimore, but he’s been one of the better, more durable pitchers in the American League, giving the Yankees three legitimately good years and three league average years for their money. He solidified a rotation spot for half a decade, and for that, he’s been worth the money. He’s been worth it.
Carl Pavano: 4 years, $40 millioon from 2005-2008.
He’s thrown 100 innings the past two seasons, angered his teammates and the front office, and is basically out of New York’s plans. Diasaster of a contract.
That’s the list, in its entirity. If we want to break it down by retrospective performance:
Bargain: Schmidt, Lowe
Worth The Money: Mussina, Contreras
Short Term Rewards, Long Term Albatross: Martinez, Colon
Useful but Overpaid: Millwood, Washburn, Vazquez, Hudson, Burnett
Disaster: Park, Hampton, Pavano
That’s 14 pitchers, and the signing team regrets 8 of those. 2 worked out really well for the club, 2 worked out as they had hoped, and 2 gave the team a short term boost, but not one that was worth the total financial payout.
If you gave the signing teams a crystal ball to know what we know now when they did the deal, I’d suggest the only players that still would have been signed would be Jason Schmidt, Derek Lowe, Mike Mussina, Jose Contreras, and Pedro Martinez. The teams would back away from the other nine.
And, keep in mind, these contracts were signed during the period of relative fiscal sanity by the ownership in reaction to the awful Hampton/Neagle deals. Major League clubs went 5 for 14 handing out these kinds of contracts when they were being extraordinarily careful about which pitchers got 4+ year deals.
It’s easy to look at what a pitcher like Barry Zito or Jason Schmidt is right now and say “do whatever it takes to sign him”, thinking you’re getting a pitcher who will anchor your rotation for years to come. We have to remember, though, that guys like Mike Hampton, Tim Hudson, Javier Vazquez, Carl Pavano, Chan Ho Park, and Bartolo Colon were looked at the same way. These guys were Cy Young winners, established playoff heroes, perenniel all-stars, and the best pitchers of their time.
By the years you hit free agency, however, your time is usually running short, and your best days are often behind you. Making a 4+ year commitment to a starting pitcher who has already been worked hard is rarely a good idea.
The Mariners already have one long term albatross contract on their pitching staff. We don’t need another one. There are other ways to build a pitching staff.
Does aceness never fade as some kind of annointed gift that is not subject to the laws of nature?
Yes 🙂
Obviously it doesn’t make sense to spend that way from an intelligent team perspective. But for fans, bad GMs, and much of the media, they certainly think that way. It’s amazing to see to talk and contract numbers concerning Schmidt, who isn’t one of the top 25 starting pitchers, and Zito, who isn’t in the top 50. That a pitcher was great 2 (or more) years ago, seems to entitle him to a contract as if he’s likely to recapture that one time success over the next three seasons. Zito simply isn’t a good starting pitcher right now but wow, look at all the hype.
In part, Washburn was paid for his 3.20 ERA but he was also paid for his success in 2002.
#149 –
Schmidt is less risky, yes. How many starts has he missed over the past 4-5 years? None over the past 4 which I’m aware of… he’s started 29 or more for 5 years running, counting 2006. He’s also on track for over 200IP for 3 out of the last 4 years. Jason Schmidt’s arm surgery is, quite simply, not a factor! He bounced back immediately and never [i]looked[/i] back once.
I like Schmidt’s K-rate. It’s still up at over 7.5 K’s per game… I’m not complaining! What is he right now, 5th in the NL for strikeouts? He’s somewhere in that vicinity… which means I’m not going to get too concerned. To me, it looks like Schmidt is a bit overused and has adjusted well to a little tiredness and a little pain. I really like the prospect of Jason’s next 3 seasons, and I think securing them would be well worth guaranteeing a 4th and holding out a vesting option for the 5th (based on performance and reasonable IP/GS over whatever time period you prefer – perhaps years 3 and 4?). Schmidt is still definitely a legitimate ace – and imagine what Felix could learn from him! I think he may follow Schilling’s career arc, albeit a half-step lower… isn’t Schilling considered a pretty close comp?
Finally, I’m glad you agree with me on the overpaying for the right player side. I just disagree with you as far as whether going after a pitcher, inherent risks taken into account, is worth the trouble. You need guys whom you can ride into the playoffs, use to break up slumps, and generate excitement (and confidence) in the rest of the team – and you don’t get those guys without risk or for free. If a guy like Jason wants to be in Seattle as much as he’s expressed, I’m all for giving him that chance – if he has a year or two of poor performance that’s too bad, but the other years may make all the difference.
Schmidt is less risky, yes. How many starts has he missed over the past 4-5 years? None over the past 4 which I’m aware of… he’s started 29 or more for 5 years running, counting 2006.
29 starts is about 5-7 shy of a full season for a starting pitcher. 5 to 7 starts is 14-20% of a pitcher’s season. That’s equivalent to missing 25-35 games for a position player. That’s not any kind of bellweather of endurance.
Anyways, to answer your question specifically, more than you remember. He missed 14 days in of ’05 with shoulder soreness and 15 days with a groin strain last September. He missed his opening start in 2004 with a sore shoulder, which was supposedly unrelated to the elbow surgery he had in the 2003 offseason. In a two year spain, he had problems with his shoulder, elbow, and groin. Not the picture of perfect health that you’re painting.
I like Schmidt’s K-rate. It’s still up at over 7.5 K’s per game… I’m not complaining!
He’s striking out 20% of the batters he faces, or 8 K/G when adjusted for batters faced. The NL average is 6.6 K/G, so certainly, his strikeout rate isn’t a problem in and of itself. Translated to the AL, his K/G would be 7.63 this year, or basically the same as what Gil Meche is posting.
I’m not saying Schmidt’s strikeout rate is a problem. I’m saying the drastic dropoff in his strikeout rate (and groundball rate) are both signs that his stuff has deteriorated. That’s not something we can ignore.
I really like the prospect of Jason’s next 3 seasons, and I think securing them would be well worth guaranteeing a 4th and holding out a vesting option for the 5th (based on performance and reasonable IP/GS over whatever time period you prefer – perhaps years 3 and 4?). Schmidt is still definitely a legitimate ace – and imagine what Felix could learn from him! I think he may follow Schilling’s career arc, albeit a half-step lower… isn’t Schilling considered a pretty close comp?
Okay, so you like Schmidt as an ace. Why? Because he was an ace from 2002-2004, and you’re willing to overlook the regression he’s taken the past two season and assume that he’s going to hook up to the juvenation machine and party like its 2003 all over again?
And no, Curt Schilling’s not a particularly good comparison for Jason Schmidt. For his career, Schilling has walked 5.4% of the batters he’s faced and has been a pinpoint control artist for the past decade, basically. Schmidt has walked 9% of the batters he’s faced and has struggled with his command the last three years. Since his dominant ’03 season, Schmidt’s ability to put the ball in the strike zone has been inconsistent at best.
Or, to put it another way, Schilling’s career K/BB rate is 4.39, while Schmidt’s is 2.27. Schmidt’s had one year (2003) where his K/BB rate was even close to Schilling’s career average. In 2002, Curt Schilling walked 33 guys in 259 innings. Jason Schmidt has walked less than 70 batters in a season once in the past five years.
They have different skillsets. Schilling’s been consistently better than Schmidt his entire career. They’re both white, right-handed, and throw hard, but they’re not comparable talents. Comparing Schmidt to Schilling is like comparing Rich Aurilia to Cal Ripken Jr.
Finally, I’m glad you agree with me on the overpaying for the right player side. I just disagree with you as far as whether going after a pitcher, inherent risks taken into account, is worth the trouble. You need guys whom you can ride into the playoffs, use to break up slumps, and generate excitement (and confidence) in the rest of the team – and you don’t get those guys without risk or for free. If a guy like Jason wants to be in Seattle as much as he’s expressed, I’m all for giving him that chance – if he has a year or two of poor performance that’s too bad, but the other years may make all the difference.
Have any recent examples of a free agent pitcher carrying his team into the playoffs, breaking up slumps, and generating excitement and confidence in the rest of the team?
Seriously, any examples? At all?
I can think of one – possibly. But he only signs one-year or half-year contracts with his hometown Houston Astros. And Schmidt is no Roger Clemens…
And clearly, if the M’s were presented with the opportunity to sign Roger Clemens, I would be at the head of the class calling for his signing. His one year deals are the things my dreams are made of – superstar talent, short term commitment.
Me too – if every USSM reader chips in and gets a 2nd or 3rd mortgage, maybe we can lure him away. 🙂
But there are no other examples as far as I can see.