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You get what you pay for
When the Mariners signed Jarrod Washburn last winter, they thought they were getting a better pitcher than the one they’ve seen in 2006. Their problem, though, was one of misconception. Take a look at ‘05 vs ‘06 Washburn:
2005: 177 1/3 IP, 184 H, 51 BB, 94 K, 19 HR, 8 HBP
2006: 180 1/3 IP, 184 H, 52 BB, 101 K, 22 HR, 7 HBP
In essentially the same number of innings, he’s given up exactly the same number of hits, one more walk, three more home runs, and struck out 7 more batters while hitting one less. You couldn’t find a more consistent pitcher from last year to this year if you tried.
The rise in ERA, from 3.20 to 4.39, is completely due to amount of baserunners he’s allowed to score. Last year, he had the highest LOB% of any pitcher in the AL at 81.8%. This year, it’s down to a league average 70.2%.
The moral, as always: ERA is useless.
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Wow it’s kind of scary how consistent Washburn is actually. Thanks for the comp.
That’s pretty amazing how similar they are.
I could’ve swore someone made this argument when he was signed… something about how useless ERA was when it came to Washburn
No, ERA is useless unless the guy you’re signing LED THE LEAGUE. Geez.
In this case, it’s “you pay for what you get.”
Alright, I’m slightly confused about how ERA is completely overrated. I read the chapter on it in “Baseball between the numbers” and it kind of made sense, but maybe I’m just conditioned to find ERA impressive.
But, if he has almost identical numbers, and his rise in ERA is due to the number of baserunners he let score, then wouldn’t that make for a slightly worse pitching season? Or is that more of a reflection of the defense and not neccessarily the pitcher (as what I gathered from the chapter)?
Alan (6)
I’m an armchair sabre-rattler. But here’s a lame attempt.
It’s primarily due to luck. The same number of hits are happening, but more of them are coming in bunches this year. People happen to hit right after each other. Voila: more runs.
On another team, the stadium might also be a factor by allowing more pop-ups to become home-runs. But that probably has the reverse affect for Washburn here, i.e. depressing his ERA.
Which means he’s not only been 1.19 worth of ERA unluckier this year than he was last year, but also that he’s been even unluckier than that given that his ERA should have gone UP due to the new park.
Ah, that makes sense. Thanks. I’m an armchair sabre-rattler in training.
To further make the point, remember that the result of balls in play is beyond Jarrod’s control. So, while it happens that he’s allowing roughly the same number of hits on roughly the same number of balls in play, he may well be pitching exactly as well in high leverage situations (guys on base) as he did last year, but the hits are simply falling at different times.
Dave, THT is breaking out defense by OF and IF this year, but I don’t recall seeing that for last year. I do know that the Mariners OF defense has basically been awful (#13 in AL), where as their IF has been quite good (#3). Could some of the Washburn ineffeciency have been due to signing a defense dependent flyball pitcher? If so, is there a way to see how much?
Basically, what I’m getting at is how much value would an inverted Washburn have flipping his gb/fb rate to the opposite of league average? Oddly enough, Wash’s HR/F is basically league average this year.
Alan, there was a long post on this a couple of weeks ago, so just search the site. I think it was called Evaluating Pitcher Talent, and I think there was talk of linking it to the FAQs section. From what I remember, the basic problem with ERA is that the pitcher is only partially responsible for allowing, and consequently preventing, runs. Look at Detroit this year - great ERAs from only OK pitchers. Also, it doesn’t account for dumb luck, which is what helped JW last year (ref. the younger Weaver, whose success is due to a silly HR/FB rate).
Team defense here
Notice as well that Detroit has had the best team defense in the AL this year, best caught stealing and an OMG! they are good infield defense.
Pitcher Evaluating Information.
That’s Dave’s great post explaning a little more, when you have some time check it out.
Dave’s piece on evaluating pitcher talent, and the uselessness of ERA and WHIP as analytical/predictive tools, is permanently linked in the main sidebar of this site, under “Features”.
Dave,
I distinctly remember when Washburn was signed you stated that his 2005 ERA was a result of unbelievably good luck in terms of stranding runners and that the trend was not sustainable. Bingo.
Question is, why didn’t Bill Bavasi, who is paid handsomely to anticipate these types of developments, realize this? Or, even worse, perhaps he did know this but signed Washburn to this ludicrous contract anyway so it would appear he (Bavasi) did something “significant” to address starting pitching this past offseason.
Either way, I’ve lost even more confidence in Bill over this one.
The inability to look at an ERA and know what is does and does not tell you about a pitcher is a colossal failing in a GM or talent scout.
Some of the numbers have predictive value. Some of them don’t. You should only make projections based on the ones that do. How hard is this?
#6, he stranded 82% of his base runners in 2005, that was going to regress, and there was no way he wasn’t going to see his ERA baloon. He’s the same pitcher he was then.
The thing is, the average fan thinks that ERA is the best measuring stick for pitchers, so when teams sign guys with low ERA’s they can sell most of their fans on what a great move it is. The M’s approach wreaks of this. Marketing first, practical baseball moves second.
Washburn with two outs and runners in scoring position:
2005 Opponents hit 183/290/250
2006 Opponents hit 293/369/560
This accounts for maybe 90% of the run differential between the two years.
He was incredibly lucky last season and it made him a lot of money.
Reeks.
The move does wreak havoc on the M’s chances for the postseason, but it reeks of ulterior motives.
On what basis does anyone claim the M’s “thought they were getting a better pitcher than the one they’ve seen in 2006?”
I doubt Bavasi or anyone else thought Washburn would be an ace in the Santana/Halladay/Oswalt mold. It’s more likely they thought they were getting a dependable #2/#3 starter, capable simply of not sucking every five days.
And look at what we got: If you group pitchers by 2006 VORP, consider 1-30 (among starters) to be #1s, 31-60 #2s, 61-90 #3s, etc., Washburn’s 25.4 ranks him #50, solidly among the #2/#3 cohort. If our young ace grows into his role sometime during the duration of Washburn’s contract, we’ll be just fine.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this charts out to be slightly worse than 2005. He has 3 more homeruns with Safeco as his home field. He should be helped by this park since Safeco is usually death to right handed batters and the park adjustment factors are either even or slightly favor Safeco over the Angels home field.
#19, where did those numbers come from, and how many plate appearances are represented in each line?
Baseball Between the Numbers quotes statistical work done by Erik Allen, Arvin Hsu and Tango Tiger to the effect that the outcome on a ball hit into play is controlled 44% by luck, 28% by the pitcher, 17% by the defense and 11% by park factors. That’s in the chapter ‘When Does a Pitcher Earn an Earned Run?’ which is worth reading along with Dave’s analytical piece above if you’re interested in the subject.
These examples (i.e. the Washburn deal) of apparently widespread innumeracy on the part of baseball management continue to fascinate me. After 40 years experience in business, law and life in general I’ve become very reluctant to conclude that people who make apparently irrational decisions are, in fact, ’stupid’. This is particularly the case when you’re speaking of highly accomplished individuals who own and run multi-hundred million dollar sports businesses.
Rather than such people being ’stupid’ I tend to think there are aspects to the situation I’m not fully understanding — and in this case I think it may be that the ‘business of baseball’ may diverge from ‘practical baseball’ in some important ways, i.e, that the acquisition of a pitcher like Washburn creates some measure of fan excitement or expectation that translates into financial benefit at the ballpark even if the acquisition can statistically be predicted to be a disappointment. In this sense, baseball acquisitions can to some degree be seen as marketing come-ons in an annual Ponzi scheme that seeks to entice fans back to the ballpark for each new season — and like any good Ponzi scheme the fact that consumers don’t ultimately get what they thought they were paying for doesn’t mean it wasn’t profitable for the guy that started it.
#22, his park adjusted HR/F was 9.8 in 2005, it’s 10.5 this year. Sure that is “worse”, but it’s normal regression to the mean, and would add 2-3 HR over the course of a full year, which might add a .25 run to his ERA, if he’s unlucky, and .15 under normal circumstance. Dave’s right, having a LOB% 11 points above average was the reason his ERA was so low last year.
What is Wash REALLY worth then? #3 starter money? #4 starter money? Doesn’t this all change depending who was on the market to begin with at the point in time he was signed? As I recall it was a shitty year for FA starters.
I’m not defending the signing, but if he’s getting way to much, what should the M’s have paid?
I think, and this is just a guess, that the Mariner’s are getting just what they expected out of Washburn. We all agree that FA pitching is waaay overpriced, and if we could do it we would build the staff through ways other than free agency, but if you look his contract is inline with what other starting pitchers of his type would get.
88fingers - Given the market for pitchers like Washburn, the correct course of action would have been not to sign him.
I think, and this is just a guess, that the Mariner’s are getting just what they expected out of Washburn. We all agree that FA pitching is waaay overpriced, and if we could do it we would build the staff through ways other than free agency, but if you look his contract is inline with what other starting pitchers of his type would get.
No, it’s not. Esteban Loaiza got one year and $16.5 million less. Paul Byrd got two years and $23.5 million less. Kenny Rogers got two years and $21.5 million less. Brett Tomko got two years and $29.5 million less.
Washburn is a ridiculously overpaid #4 starter.
Dave, THT is breaking out defense by OF and IF this year, but I don’t recall seeing that for last year. I do know that the Mariners OF defense has basically been awful (#13 in AL), where as their IF has been quite good (#3). Could some of the Washburn ineffeciency have been due to signing a defense dependent flyball pitcher? If so, is there a way to see how much?
THT’s defensive breakouts come from the ideas put forth by Studes in last year’s THT annual and John Dewan’s Fielding Bible. You’re right, they weren’t on the site last year, though I’m sure Studes has the data to calculate them (and probably has).
And yes, the Mariners poor outfield defense has harmed Washburn. Unlike in 2001-2003, when the Mariners were running out some of the best outfield defenses in baseball, this Mariners team hasn’t been a great one for a flyball pitcher. Ibanez has the range of a broken shopping cart, Reed has been consistently overrated defensively, and the Bloomquist/Jones pseudo platoon in center really hurt the team’s ability to track down fly balls and turn them into outs.
Given the M’s current crop of position players and their defensive abilities, they’d be better off with a staff of groundball pitchers. However, it might be cheaper to upgrade the defense than to try to figure out how to flip Washburn for a similarly skilled and compensated groundballer. Upgrading the outfield defense actually wouldn’t be a hard task, and it’s part of my offseason plan that I’ll be unveiling at some point in the next few weeks.
Do you think that each of them being older than Washburn played a part?
I agree Dave, I don’t think it was smart, and it wasn’t the type of signing I would have done. However do you think they expected more out of Washburn than they are getting?
It is fair to say that the Washburn signing was a desperation move. As Bavasi has admitted, he knew that if the team was horrible again in 2006, he might lose his job. Bavasi had the money to spend, which was earmarked for a starting pitcher to fill a gaping hole in the rotation. He wanted a seemingly reliable veteran starter who could help stabilize a very questionable rotation. At the time, the rotation consisted of a 20-year-old phenom (Felix), a 43-year-old junkballer (Moyer), and two potential flameouts (Meche and Pineiro), with nothing resembling even replacement level talent in the high minors. As a result, Bavasi decided to play it safe by focusing more on the low risk rather than the high reward side of the spectrum, which limited the pool of players under consideration by ruling out the old, the injury prone, and the wildly inconsistent. Bavasi lost Millwood by not offering (what was essentially) a fifth year. He viewed the left-handed Washburn as another Moyer who could replicate Moyer’s incredible success at Safeco Field. Even with Ibanez in left, he probably counted on Reed and Ichiro providing excellent outfield defense behind Washburn (while not counting on Reed to play worse defensively or Bloomquist, Lawton, and Choo to start 40+ games in center). To get Washburn to sign, Bavasi overpaid and guaranteed the fourth year.
And then two days later, I cancelled my season tickets.
It seems like everyone wants to hate Washburn for signing the contract. Why? He merely took what he was offered, and now is giving 100% to fill the role he signed up for. Yeah he’s quite obviously overpaid. But that’s not really his fault is it? Any one of us would have done the same. More power to him.
Wouldn’t it be more productive to focus on the extended statistical performance of Seattle management and ownership instead of so much effort on Washburn specifically?
Just a thought.
I have never read anyone that blames Washburn, could that be pointed out?
Upgrading the outfield defense actually wouldn’t be a hard task, and it’s part of my offseason plan that I’ll be unveiling at some point in the next few weeks.
It becomes downright easy if Adam Jones looks like he’s taken his game up another notch in spring training. Your OF becomes Doyle/Jones/Ichiro, and you have multiple trade options with Sexson/Ibañez/Benuardo/Reed, potentially. (Yes, I know, Ibañez isn’t going anywhere, having inherited the Veteran Hitter Who The Front Office Wants To Keep To Make Fans Cuddly And Warm mantle from Edgar and Buhner, but a sufficiently ruthless GM would be taking heed of Branch Rickey’s nostrum and considering what he could get for a not-too-expensive LF in his 30’s having a career year.)
Nobody blames Washburn from what I can see. We blame people who put emphasis on ERA and WHIP without looking at any other useful stats.
If I were offered what he was I would take it in a heartbeat. Although I’m obviously a better pitcher.
23 - #19, where did those numbers come from, and how many plate appearances are represented in each line?
These numbers come from split stats on ESPN.com but can be found in countless other places.
Sample size isn’t really an issue here. Over half the runs in MLB are scored with 2 outs and men in scoring position. If I can find a mediocre starter who can consistantly post a 183/290/250 against in this situation then I pay him $9M per season. The problem is that I won’t find one.
ec, upgrading the OF defense has already started - Doyle in RF, Ichiro in CF. I think the key to the OF defense (which would help Wash) is a combination of two of the following three options; Ichiro in CF, Jones being ready to play fulltime and Ibanez moving (DH/1B/another team). Any disagreement that if two of those three happen the OF defense goes from among the worst to at least the top half?
Wash and other flyballers are better off if that is the case, and the finacial cost is rather simple. Improving the pitching (Runs Against) without improving the pitchers. I expect Dave to have two of those on his offseason plan.
An improved OF defense would also make low and mid quality pitching signings more tenable.
It seems like everyone wants to hate Washburn for signing the contract.
Hardly. Thinking the Mariners made a poor move and overpaid =! hating Washburn.
That being said, I think even using advanced statistical analysis to project free agent signings is looking into a glass but darkly (since we are continuing on a theme Dave started yesterday). Imagine a parallel universe where Dave Cameron gets a job in the M’s front office like Keith Law’s in October 2005, and Bill Bavasi puts together the following pitching staff in the 2005-2006 offseason:
King Felix
Esteban Loaiza
Jamie Moyer
Jason Johnson
Kevin Brown
I submit that (assuming Loaiza and Johnson’s ineffectiveness in 2006 carried over into this alternate universe), we’d be just as hosed in our 2006 pennant race as we were with the likes of Piñeiro.
What I just wrote is likely to be interpreted as a shot at Dave, but it’s not- I thought Brown was garbage and am not surprised he’s out of the league (but the 5th starter is the least important part of your rotation, and easiest to work around with replacement-level talent, as MANY good teams have replacement-level 5th starters), but I would have been happy about Loaiza and Johnson possibly coming out to be good bargains for what they signed for- and the xFIP/advanced pitching stats would have supported their signings. It’s only in hindsight that you could see that course of action would have been a disaster for 2006. The takeaway should be that even with more advanced analysis than traditional methods (ERA, W/L, WHIP), free agent pitching can be hard to figure out.
2005: 177 1/3 IP, 184 H, 51 BB, 94 K, 19 HR, 8 HBP
2006: 180 1/3 IP, 184 H, 52 BB, 101 K, 22 HR, 7 HBP
Whoa, that’s freaky.
I assume Dave’s plan involves signing Zito and Schmidt to 8 year deals, retains Meche to the tune of $38m to plug the 5-hole, and fixes the offense by allowing Alfonso Soriano to cash in on his career year to the tune of a $100m contract. Also, he offers Richie Sexson an extension.
It would be tempting to bring back Cameron to fix CF, but I think his offense would probably roll off a cliff by year 2. Cammy, has played all these years in pitchers’ parks, it’d be nice to see him sign with Houston, which has a) a huge CF area for him to cover, (also with the added challenge of that stupid hill), and b) ridiculously short porch to aid him in hitting some dingers! Wily Taveras my ass!
Please excuse me if I say, “Whu?” Never heard that one before. Where did you come by that data?
I think the Geoff Baker era is going to be an improvement….
“A pregame glance at a stats sheet or some video footage of Monday night’s opposing starter, Toronto left-hander Ted Lilly, would have told them he allows base runners (82 in the past 55-2/3 innings) about as often as managers spit.”
It becomes downright easy if Adam Jones looks like he’s taken his game up another notch in spring training. Your OF becomes Doyle/Jones/Ichiro, and you have multiple trade options with Sexson/Ibañez/Benuardo/Reed, potentially.
If you happened to come across a stray version of my offseason plan laying around, please return it. Thanks.
But yea, that’s basically what I have in mind. Sexson, Broussard, Reed, and assorted others go away, with the team revamping the middle of the batting order and improving the outfield defense simultaneously.
Speaking of getting what you pay for…
Mariner offense pre-All Star Break: 426 runs in 89 games: on pace for 775 runs scored over a full season, .267/.322/.422 as a team. In the middle of MLB as offenses go, which means, at Safeco, pretty decent.
Mariner offense post-All Star Break: 213 runs in 54 games: on pace for 639 runs scored over a full season, .265/.315/.399 as a team. Dead freaking last in MLB in runs scored after the All-Star break. Dead last in OBP. Tied for dead last in OPS.
And this, we can’t even blame on Carl Everett (36 AB’s after the break). Eduardo Perez has been Carl Everett redux (.536 OPS). Jones was a trainwreck during his cup of coffee (kind of predictable): .536 OPS. We also now have THREE Willie Bloomquists: One plays RF/CF (Ichiro’s post ASB OPS: 618), one plays second (Lopez’s post ASB OPS: .641), and one is actually Willie Bloomquist (post ASB OPS: .604).
So…basically, adding in Rivera, the M’s are generally fielding a lineup where a third to half the team isn’t hitting at all. Good times.
Concerning Of defense:
How would we quantify ichiro’s defense in center? Is he at the very top of the pack, or is he merely just good?
i know it’s improbable that anybody keeps Line drive/Ground ball/fly ball ratios when runners are on, in scoring position, etc.
but that would probably be really interesting to see if they were out there to explain washburn’s ERA difference from last year to this.
or maybe i’m making it more complicated than it should be.
scraps (#14), I cleaned up that link for you.
42 - Over half the runs in MLB are scored with 2 outs and men in scoring position.
Originally I had calculated the number of runs pitchers had given up in that situation and divided it by the total number of runs scored (11092/20866). However, when I perform the same calculation on the offensive end it comes out to more like 30% (6291/20866). I tend to lean more toward the 30% number.
Holding hitters to a 183/290/250 last year seems to have saved him about 20 runs over the 293/369/560 which they hit this year in that same situation.
Enough already!
Why can’t we be happy that the GM’s are using ERA? Would you rather they examine W-L records? Or, “stuff?”
#50 - Please tell me that you’re being sarcastic.
#50 - I wouldn’t actually mind them evaluating pitchers based wholly on their stuff.
“Stuff” is too subjective, IMHO. “Stuff” combined with command might be a viable way to evaluate pitching talent. But, I’d argue that the only way to really evaluate a pitcher’s command is through the use of appropriate statistics (such as LD%, LOB%, BB%, etc).
JMB, thank you. What was wrong with the link, if I may ask? It looked fine in Firefox.
AQ, I’m not convinced that the numbers we have on pitchers are as predicitive or as accurate as what scouts can tell by watching them.
AQ, I’m not convinced that the numbers we have on pitchers are as predicitive or as accurate as what scouts can tell by watching them.
Maybe so, but I prefer beer AND tacos.
#55 - Oh, I agree. I think that there’s definitely a place and a need for scouting and seeing the stuff of a pitcher. The pitcher also needs command (combined with that stuff) to be truly effective. And a pitcher’s command is best demonstrated in the statistics…
#56 - I think you’re making the same point as me, but in a different way.. lol
Oh, I completely agree with using both. But if they were just using one, I’d lean towards scouting with pitchers.
#59 - With our current front office, I’d probably have to settle for them using scouting alone. I just wish that they could understand the importance of scouting and stats combined.
Oh, I completely agree with using both. But if they were just using one, I’d lean towards scouting with pitchers.
But why would you want to do that- especially since scouts will happily spout baseball nostrums and ignore things that statistics might point out are contrary to assumed belief?
Case in point- the knuckleball. It was a common pitch through a lot of baseball history, with some rather high-profile, successful users of it (Dutch Leonard, Wilhelm, the Niekros Wilbur Wood, Charlie Hough).
Who’s left throwing it now- Tim Wakefield? Why? Scouts hate it. Baseball hates it. Even though there’s a really good statistical record that you can be an effective knuckleball pitcher (and, to boot, pick up a lot of innings without trashing your arm, since you’re not throwing 100+ pitches with full effort and commensurate mechanical strain), do you see teams teaching the knuckler to some of their rubber armed RHPs with 87 MPH mediocre batting practice fastballs and NO shot of being more than a replacement-level arm without another pitch?
(Honestly, if I was a GM who wanted to pull a Beane-style exploitation of hidden value, I’d hire Charlie Hough as a roving minor league instructor and try adding a knuckler to the repetoire of some of my AAAA arms.)
Don’t forget Steve Sparks.
I have always had an irrational liking for the knuckleball.
Knuckleball Quotes
#61, I’ve been saying that for years. The knuckler and the gyroball (OK, since no-one throws it at MLB level, that might not work, but …).
http://www.amazon.com/Knucklebook-Dave-Clark/dp/1566636612 - and make the said AAAA arms read that book. A knuckler is easier to throw (but not necessarily master) than most people think, it’d stick with someone.
The gyroball would be trickier, but it’s real, and someone will take advantage of it someday.
#62, I almost had, why did you remind me?
EC: I didn’t say that the current scouts were the right ones to use. There’s a difference between scouting bias and the actual act of scouting.
Knuckleballers generally take many years to master their craft. You can teach the knuckleball to mediocre young pitchers, but even if you teach one of the ones who eventually pans out, isn’t it likely the investment will pay off for some other team?
I did not write that book…I just want to be clear. I also never set the NL single season record for PH RBI.
The knuckler is effective partly because so few guys throw it.
The minor league numbers suggest that minor league hitters are about as adept at hitting a good knuckler as major leaguers are. The only difference between minor and major league is that one group has been promoted based on its ability to hit pitches that aren’t the knuckler. Since proficiency hitting knuckleballs isn’t used as a criterion for advancement, every professional hitter is basically an unskilled amateur when facing one.
Scouts don’t hate the knuckleball. Where’d you get that idea, EC?
The knuckleballer is rare because it’s so freaking hard to throw.
My favourite story about a knuckleball came in an interview with Doug Mirabelli.
http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/?040517fa_fact1
Once comfortably ensconced in the flourishing community of oddball pitches—spitball, palm ball, shine ball, eephus—the knuckleball has fallen victim, in recent decades, to a prejudice against deception and a fear of the unknown. If a kid throwing ninety-five m.p.h. has a bad outing, scouts chalk it up to growing pains; at least he can bring it. If a knuckleballer flounders, it is proof, somehow, that the craft itself—just look at it—is unreliable.
“Catchers hate it,” Jim Bouton, the author of “Ball Four: My Life and Hard Times Throwing the Knuckleball in the Big Leagues,” said recently. “Nobody likes to warm up with you. Coaches don’t respect it. You can pitch seven good innings with a knuckleball, and as soon as you walk a guy they go, ‘See, there’s that damn knuckleball.’ ”
The pitch is minimally taxing from a physical standpoint, and thus affords its practitioners the ability to pitch in virtually any situation, on any day. Knuckleball pitchers seldom need to ice their arms after working. They lift weights only sparingly, and almost never get injured. The knuckleball favors old age—or at least doesn’t discourage it—and forgives weakness. These are considerable advantages, yet the pitch is, for the same reasons, taken as an affront to the entrenched jock ethic of blood, sweat, and tears.
Now, maybe that’s just wrong- but I find it hard to believe that somehow, it’s more difficult to throw knucklers now than it was 50 years ago, or 20 years ago. There are more baseball teams and more players than then…and less knuckleball pitchers.
Now, maybe scouts don’t hate it- but given the record of the guys I mentioned, why wouldn’t you try it, ESPECIALLY since you can easily throw into your 40’s with the pitch?
Ben McGrath’s evidence is apparently Ben McGrath’s opinion.
There are, off the top of my head, 6-7 knuckleballers in the minor leagues right now. The best of them, Charley Haeger, is likely going to get a prominant spot on the White Sox next year.
I’m not convinced this “downturn” in knuckleballers is evidence of a cause-and-effect opinion of the men in charge any more so than a period of a cycle that will eventually come around.
Well, I’ve read similar stuff over the years- but it could easily be wrong. Happy to change my mind.
Yeah, Washburn is EXACTLY the pitcher he was last season. and this was entirely predictable, and Bavasi really should have (or did, but spent the money anyway) known that this was a bad deal. I agree with all of THOSE statements.
Now, about that final, sweeping (and therefore patently, transparently stupid) conclusion… [clears throat]… shouldn’t that be that “single-season” ERA is “useless without reference to other factors (BIP, Runners Stranded, HR%, Park Factor, etc.)?
The conclusion “ERA is useless” seems pretty fecking overblown to me; near as dumb as the assumption it is some be-all and end-all.
Given “league average” numbers in, say just BIP and RunStrand, isn’t ERA as reliable as any other catagory in measuring the basic value of a pitcher in the following season?
Given someone’s career numbers (very briefly checking for unusual Park/Era Factors), isn’t ERA a decent measure of a pitcher’s career, easily better than Wins, etc.? I look up “Career ERA Leaders” and I find a list that, noting historical changes, is not at all disappointing, and that I think is clearly better than “Wins,” “KOs,” or anything else.
Let’s have some @%’$#&+@* moderation in our pronouncements, eh? Isn’t being correct ABOUT WHAT’S IMPORTANT enough?
I’d love to see another good knuckleballer…what I would REALLY love to see is a pitcher that has Zumaya’s velocity but can also throw a slow-ass knuckler. Can you imagine people’s knees buckling all over the place as the dude throws 103 backed up by 63 and unpredictable?
that’s my dream.
If someone can throw 103, odds are they don’t need to worry about adding a knuckleball.
Isn’t it fairly easy to steal on knuckleballers? It seems to me that could be a major reason for the dearth of pure knucklers. Probabaly mitigated if you can mix in a 88 mph fastball here and there. Just a thought.
I don’t know that a guy who throws hard would have that much success adding a knuckler. A big reason off speed pitches and breaking pitches work is that until the ball is released you have no idea what’s coming. The arm action and windup are the same. When throwing a proper knuckler this isn’t the case. As soon as the windup begins, the hitter is going to know what’s coming, making it no more effective than any other knuckler.
The arm action and windup are the same. When throwing a proper knuckler this isn’t the case. As soon as the windup begins, the hitter is going to know what’s coming, making it no more effective than any other knuckler.
yeah, i would have to imagine that it would be really dangerous to throw a ball with a fastball arm motiong and a knuckle grip
now, if you were to just concede it and work off a 100 mph fastball delivery, and then change arm angle and go down to whatever the ceiling for a fastball coming from the knuckle position, that might be worth something. if just that the batter is gonna have a harder time hitting something in the low 60’s or high 50’s even when they just saw something in the high 90’s or 100’s even seconds before.
it’s probably a really stupid idea. pitching mechanic gods, shoot me down.
That 40 mph speed difference is too big. Players would have too much time to react to the slower pitch.
That 40 mph speed difference is too big. Players would have too much time to react to the slower pitch.
but just the sheer fact that you’re fearing for your life one second, and then the next are basically playing little league baseball, would have to have at least some quantifiable effect. i don’t know.
I would kill for us to get a (good) knuckleballer.
One thing about knuckleballers — they don’t lend themselves to being relievers. At least, not spot relievers: bringing one in to start an inning is fine, but bringing one in with men on base is asking for passed balls and men advancing (and for this reason I doubt stealing on knucklers is a big deal: why test the catcher’s arm when you can just wait for him to go scrambling for a ball off the backstop?) So that would be a knock against them, I would think — fewer options as they’re coming up.
I know this is a bit off topic, but not mentioned elsewhere, but yet another Mariner farm hand has been suspended for 50 games for violating the drug policy. At what point should we start holding the team physicians and trainers responsible, it really seems like the M’s have an overabundance of this type of thing happening compared to other teams.
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The M’s paid a lot of money to sign Wellington Dotel, too. Despite not performing up to expectations, he was a legitimate prospect in their eyes, not some organizational player like most of the guys who have been caught so far.
And Dotel’s the only Mariner to get caught this year. I think they’ve done a good job reacting to the positive tests of the past few years.
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Interesting since So Hough and Wood started their careers as relievers, and remained in the bullpen for many years before the were given the opportunity to start.
oops.
SoDidn’t say it wouldn’t happen; just that it would give most managers pause. Hargrove would consistently bring Mateo in with men on, too, and we know how that generally turns out.
If anything, the complete ‘consistency’ of his performance from last year to this one might be an omen of deteriorating skills. Consider that approximately half his starts will be at The Safe, and certain things like ‘hits’ and ‘home runs’ should be expected to take a slight dip. They didn’t.
Then again, it could just be a slight variation causing the so-called stability. In any case, though, he’s not getting better.
Did I read the in game box correctly?
We got NINE hits in less than three innings off of Marcum (including two dingers) and STILL only got three runs? I’m almost afraid to ask how that must have occured…sigh
Woops…wrong thread, lol
I still don’t understand how you can call Washburn a fourth starter?….What other 4th starters are you refering to? He is a weak 2 or a strong 3. Where is your justification for calling him a 4? Looking over the rosters I can only find a few examaples where he would not be an obvious choice for the top 4 in a rotation and there are a lot of places where he is at least the second best pitcher on the team. I like having him in the rotation, if he has a good offense around him his team will win a lot of games. His durability is almost unmatched and this should be considered when calling him a “4th starter.”
Jarrod Washburn is a #4 starter in the Lake Wobegon League, where all the pitchers are above average.