Comments on: Game 149, Mariners at Royals

By: Karen

Karen — Mon, 18 Sep 2006 21:46:01 +0000

#44 through #47…

All those stats would improve if Richie would roll his pantsleg up to his knees so the umpires could tell that his knees are TWO-PLUS FEET OFF THE GROUND, not that twelve inches they seem to think is the bottom end of his strike zone…

By: Coach Owens

Coach Owens — Mon, 18 Sep 2006 21:01:40 +0000

49. Sorry about your dad. Happy ex-birthday to him.

By: Josh

Josh — Mon, 18 Sep 2006 08:57:03 +0000

#44: Or an OPS decline from Milwaukee/Arizonaland can be explained by moving to Safeco.

Except that the Arizona one hardly is enough of a sample to qualify as anything, and he’d been hitting the negative direction the last two years in Milwaukee, as well.

By: Graham

Graham — Mon, 18 Sep 2006 08:17:00 +0000

#44: Or an OPS decline from Milwaukee/Arizonaland can be explained by moving to Safeco.

By: DiamondDave

DiamondDave — Mon, 18 Sep 2006 07:10:03 +0000

The JMB birthday discussion reminded to post something here. Today (yesterday, actually) was also my dad’s 64th birthday (cue Beatles music). Or rather, it would have been, but he died in a hiking accident 10 years ago this summer. He was a rabid Ms fan and took me to many games at the Kingdome. Never lived to see Safeco, but he would have been a kid in a candy store there. So, here’s to you Dad. Glad the Ms won on on yer B-Day for ya.

By: argh

argh — Mon, 18 Sep 2006 03:42:04 +0000

Fangraph at:

http://www.fangraphs.com/index.aspx

By: Josh

Josh — Mon, 18 Sep 2006 03:07:08 +0000

Whoops, Re: 44, for BB going down I meant to say OBP. As far as BB going down… it’s a hell of a lot more than 12%!

By: Josh

Josh — Mon, 18 Sep 2006 03:04:56 +0000

Fangraph seems to show the same thing, just glancing through it. Not encouraging.

Where do I find this Fangraph site? Fangraph.com is giving me a parked domain on GoDaddy.

Thanks in advance!

By: argh

argh — Mon, 18 Sep 2006 03:02:48 +0000

Fangraph seems to show the same thing, just glancing through it. Not encouraging.

By: Josh

Josh — Mon, 18 Sep 2006 02:58:45 +0000

I made up a quick little chart on Sexson. It’s only OPS so it’s not as if you get the whole story, but I do think it can prove a point.

For full “disclosure” I left in 2004 even though he only had 90 AB. If you regress to his mean over the time he missed, you’ll see a guy who already hit his peak years ago – 2001. Since then he’s generally been on a downward plane. Last year was certainly better than I expected when they signed him, but it’s not out of the realm of possibilities for a guy headed on the same trajectory.

By the same token, this year’s results may be “slightly” worse than what his abilities should on average allow for, but it’s not off by much. What is really alarming (but not surprising) is that his power and walks are what have been falling this year – down around 12% each in SLG and BB from last year. If you look at ISO instead of SLG it’s down 20%. BA is virtually the same, down a touch – 3.5%.

IMO, the stats going down simultaneously speak volumes about where he is headed.