Looking Ahead: Francisco Cruceta, sort of
So, last week, I decided to writeup Francisco Cruceta as the next in the Looking Ahead series, but I just hadn’t gotten around to writing it. This morning, when I woke up, I discovered that Jeff Sullivan beat me to it.
Jeff nails Cruceta’s strengths and weaknesses perfectly. Summing up:
Francisco Cruceta is a lesson in why you can’t just automatically apply some general ML translation to minor league statistics and come out with a reliable performance projection. He’s been able to succeed by taking advantage of the one thing minor league batters do significantly worse than their Major League counterparts, and now that he’s in Seattle, he’s having a hell of a time trying to adjust. Obviously he’s not five-runs-in-one-inning bad, but he’s not nine-strikeouts-in-every-game good, either, despite what some people might’ve been hoping for as they tracked his progress in Tacoma this year.
This is the simplest way of putting things: Francisco Cruceta is not a starting pitcher. At least, not a good one, anyway, not in Seattle…
Cruceta is out of options next spring, so he’ll have to stick with the team out of spring training or the M’s will have to attempt to slip him through waivers. So, really, the M’s need to decide pretty soon whether he’s going to get a legitimate chance to make the team next spring, and his best chance to do that is as a reliever. The team is extremely crowded in the bullpen, however, so there’s a decent chance that Cruceta could end up as trade bait.
Anyways, read Jeff’s piece on Cruceta, while I go hunting for someone obscure enough that he can’t steal my thunder. Maybe I’ll do a Looking Ahead: Michael Hrynio. That’ll show him.
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Geeeze…I was all hyped on pinning #1 starter status to Cruceta for next year.
Seriously though, is Hargrove going to try and start him again or will we just see him exclusively out of the bullpen now? He is probably someone you could package in a trade to the right team. I don’t see a Billy Beanesque GM taking a flyer on him but someone would.
Offseason come soon!
My favorite quote from Jeff’s article:
“Francisco Cruceta had “found himself,” so to speak, and Mariner fans were all over him, wondering when the guy with all the K’s would come up and replace one of the seven-figure assclowns starting every five days in Seattle.”
So, after perusing Jeff’s article, I wonder if Cruceta can be fixed? It seems that alot of his problems stem from his stance and release point. If (and thats a big if) they could straighten that out would it be worth keeping him around? Is it something the team could straighten out, or is this something that at this point in his career is un-fixable?
What’s he worth as trade bait? Given the situation, it doesn’t seem much different from where we were with Thornton. Which got us 9 ABs of Joe Borchard.
It seems like the best hope would be to make him part of a package deal. Maybe he can be part of the incentive for someone to take on Sexson’s salary?
ah, the view from outside. Jayson Stark has decided that Johjima can’t call a game in the big leagues, although he seems like a nice guy and is having a nice offensive year.
Re: #2
It’s something you could try and fix, but that’s a pretty significant change to his delivery, and you’d run a decent risk of ending up with a totally different pitcher. Whether or not it’s worth the gamble is really up to personal preference, but I’d rather see what he can do out of the bullpen before I overhaul the way he throws.
What does Jayson Stark know about judging how a catcher calls games?
For the uninitiated, Jayson Stark was on KJR radio this morning. He said that a top major league scout told him that M’s pitchers threw the highest % of curves of any major league team (or words approximately equal to that).
And on Hargrove watch, Stark leaned towards thinking he ans Bavasi will be back in ‘07. He said the execs like how Bavasi has rebuilt the farm system, and Grover os Bill’s guy.
What does Jayson Stark know about judging how a catcher calls games?
He works for the Worldwide Leader, and he talks loud. He must thus be an expert, right?
Cruceta has a lot more value than Thornton. Thornton, essentially, had no success as a professional above A-ball. Cruceta just led the PCL in strikeouts and was one of the better pitchers in Triple-A this season.
You probably wouldn’t move him in a one for one, but he could be the second or third player in a pretty significant trade.
I see Jeff’s point about overhauling Cruceta (especially since you’d have to do it in the majors), but I have to admit, I’d be tempted to hire Carlos Gomez to fix his mechanics.
When was the last time you saw an organization “fix” a player’s mechanics and it actually worked?
Muscle memory isn’t something that can be adjusted overnight. It takes a long, long time to undo years of repetitive motion. By the time a player gets to this stage of his career, he’s pretty much who he is.
The only person I’ve ever heard of that actually had success in “fixing” his mechanics is Roy Halladay and he didn’t do it in the big leagues. He went back to AAA for an extended period to adjust his motion to get more movement on his fastball.
It wasn’t a quick fix, it didn’t happen during a bullpen session and the Jays knew that Halladay had talent before they did this. They changed him from an over the top to a 3/4 delivery.
And on Hargrove watch, Stark leaned towards thinking he ans Bavasi will be back in ‘07. He said the execs like how Bavasi has rebuilt the farm system, and Grover os Bill’s guy.
actually Mitch quoted Larry Stone to that effect. Stark wouldn’t go into why he thought Hargrove would be back. He also mentioned that this is just the 2nd season in 65 years without an in-season firing … and opined that Robinson, Alou & Baker are gone after the year, that Girardi can be fired if he wants to be fired, Gibbons is prob. ok due to his relationship with Ricciardi, Garner is shaky, but prob. safe.
isn’t Noah Lowry another guy that keeps ‘fixing his mechanics’?
The only person I’ve ever heard of that actually had success in “fixing” his mechanics is Roy Halladay and he didn’t do it in the big leagues. He went back to AAA for an extended period to adjust his motion to get more movement on his fastball.
Actually, they started Halladay over completely, sending him all the way back to A-ball and telling him to work his way back up to the majors like any other minor leaguer. They basically hit the reset button on his career.
And on Hargrove watch, Stark leaned towards thinking he ans Bavasi will be back in ‘07. He said the execs like how Bavasi has rebuilt the farm system, and Grover os Bill’s guy.
I keep hearing that Grover wasn’t Bavasi’s pick. Which is it?
If Cruceta can pick up a bit on his fastball going to the ‘pen (like most players do) and work on his splitter a bit…well, that’s fairly close to what JJ Putz’s repertoire is. Obviously, JJ’s the poster child for “best case scenario”, plus he induces more groundballs, but Cruceta could be another version of Julio Mateo (the old one that could strike guys out, not the 2005-2006 version). That’s a useful player in your bullpen (and they could flip Mateo in trade for something useful).
For the uninitiated, Jayson Stark was on KJR radio this morning. He said that a top major league scout told him that M’s pitchers threw the highest % of curves of any major league team (or words approximately equal to that).
Gee, maybe that’s a function of having a rotation of Felix (curveball is out pitch), Meche (curveball is out pitch), Pineiro (curveball is only pitch), and Moyer (every pitch is offspeed for a reason). Perhaps the Mariners’ pitchers are throwing more curveballs because they have more pitchers that feature curveballs than other teams?
Kenji does some things defensively that bother me. His constant stabbing at pitches is just stupid, and that throw yesterday, well, that was pretty brutal. He doesn’t get his body in front of balls well or position himself properly on plays at the plate.
But you know what, all that probably costs the M’s something like 5 runs a year. His offense dwarfs his defensive problems. Despite the media’s stupidity, he’s having a season that Dan Wilson could only have dreamed of.
#16– continuing to wander OT– FWIW, Mitch repeating Stone didn’t say that Hargrove ‘was Bill’s guy’, he mentioned Stone’s note that Bavasi was known for his loyalty.
Mitch’s response to Stark’s inanity was to wonder if maybe they ought to be calling the games from the dugout if it wasn’t something that could be fixed. sigh.
But you know what, all that probably costs the M’s something like 5 runs a year. His offense dwarfs his defensive problems. Despite the media’s stupidity, he’s having a season that Dan Wilson could only have dreamed of.
But pitching and defense wins championships…
OK, now that we’ve all had a good laugh, I’m hoping nobody in the organization starts getting stupid ideas based on what talking heads at ESPN yammer about. OK, fine, so Johjima is closer to Joe Torre or Ted Simmons as a catcher than Johnny Bench. He’s still a net positive to this team.
For the uninitiated, Jayson Stark was on KJR radio this morning. He said that a top major league scout told him that M’s pitchers threw the highest % of curves of any major league team (or words approximately equal to that).
Gee, maybe that’s a function of having a rotation of Felix (curveball is out pitch), Meche (curveball is out pitch), Pineiro (curveball is only pitch), and Moyer (every pitch is offspeed for a reason). Perhaps the Mariners’ pitchers are throwing more curveballs because they have more pitchers that feature curveballs than other teams?
Or that Johjima thinks its smarter for a pitcher to throw his best pitch to get people out?
Judging by Felix’s routine, that may mean the Ms are gonna try to remake Johjima’s pitch calling….
Thornton did have decent numbers in AA when he wasn’t out with arm problems, and there’s some bonus to being lefthanded. He also didn’t get the benefit of multiple shots at AAA like Cruceta, although I’ll concede that his performance there doesn’t live up to even Cruceta’s worst.
But I was mostly focused on the lack of options and what happens when everybody knows you have to trade a player of marginal value. We could have gotten more for Thornton by packaging him too, and not holding out hope that something would change. Unfortunately, this organization seems to wait until its hand is forced most of the time. If we take until the end of March to decide if we want to make Cruceta a reliever and put him on the roster, we’ll have the same lack of negotiating position as usual.
Dave,
Could the next Looking Ahead be Ryan Feierabend? Do you think there’s a possibility of Feierabend being in the rotation out of spring training next year?
Thornton did have decent numbers in AA when he wasn’t out with arm problems
Not really. In 2002, at age 25, he threw 62 IP with a 4.21 BB/9 and 6.39 K/9 in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the Texas League. That’s not good.
But I was mostly focused on the lack of options and what happens when everybody knows you have to trade a player of marginal value.
I wish people would stop believing this, because it’s not true. Several years ago, the Indians designated Milton Bradley for assignment just as the year was about to begin and announced that he would never play for the organization again. A few days later, they sent him to the Dodgers for Franklin Gutierrez and Andrew Brown, two of the Dodgers better prospects.
Why did the Dodgers give up two good young talents when the Indians had made it clear that they were moving Bradley? Because, if they wanted Milton Bradley, they had to. The fact that he was going on waivers didn’t help the Dodgers at all, because one of the many teams in front of them would claim him before he ever got to them.
From the Dodgers perspective, the Indians “lack of leverage” did nothing to help them. They could lowball Cleveland and let them put him on waivers, then watch some club like Tampa Bay claim him, or they could actually make a legitimate offer and end up with the player they wanted. They chose option two like any sensible organization would.
We could have gotten more for Thornton by packaging him too, and not holding out hope that something would change.
No, that’s not really true. Thornton was the epitome of “just a guy”. Every organization in baseball has a guy with velocity and no command.
Unfortunately, this organization seems to wait until its hand is forced most of the time. If we take until the end of March to decide if we want to make Cruceta a reliever and put him on the roster, we’ll have the same lack of negotiating position as usual.
No, we won’t. Supply and demand doesn’t work that way.
Anyways, read Jeff’s piece on Cruceta, while I go hunting for someone obscure enough that he can’t steal my thunder. Maybe I’ll do a Looking Ahead: Michael Hrynio. That’ll show him.
Heh. There’s always Austin Bibens-Dirkx. I know you and I have talked behind the scenes about him, but his stats do sort of stand out a bit and some people are taking notice.
I’m just generally uninterested in minor league relievers. They are literally everywhere. Minor League Relievers are to baseball as skinny slutty blondes are to the entertainment industry. Everyone has 40 of them, and they’re impossible to tell apart.
Jeff at Lookout Landing already posted a little about Feierabend. I’m sure we would all appreciate Dave’s opinion but until then Jeff can surely satisfy you hunger. The link is right at the top of the Cruceta article.
I’m just going to have to get in the entertainment industry then. What your thoughts on Johan Limonta? The 20th round selection is pretty much leading Inland Empire’s charge.
Re #11: Yeah, I realize it’s a huge undertaking. The changes in Mulder’s mechanics that CBW analyzes, and the results they’ve produced, only underscore the point. I also realize that it’s really not something that could be pulled off without sending Cruceta to the minors for a long time, as the Jays did with Halladay, to rebuild him from the ground up — and we couldn’t do that, because somebody would be bound to claim him “as is.” Yes, it would be wildly impracticable; but I’d still be tempted, because from what Jeff Sullivan had to say, it seems to me like there ought to be a heck of a pitcher in there if he could be rebuilt right. Rather a shame he made it this far with those mechanics.
I suspect there may be a reason why the Indians didn’t change Cruceta’s delivery, while they had him in their system for years. If bloggers can tell problems from a video, the coaching staff will be aware of them. Either they tried and failed or for some reason (experience?) they decided that trying was not worthwhile.
Yeah. I suppose Austin is sort of a Jenny McCarthy in a sea of Pamela Andersons. You could steal back Jeff’s thunder, though, with a good article on Cibney Bello, I’m sure…
Yes, it would be wildly impracticable; but I’d still be tempted, because from what Jeff Sullivan had to say, it seems to me like there ought to be a heck of a pitcher in there if he could be rebuilt right. Rather a shame he made it this far with those mechanics.
I think this is probably overstating the case. Yes, you could probably retool Cruceta’s mechanics to get his release point closer to the plate and get a better downward angle on the ball, which would allow him to pitch lower in the zone and reduce his flyball rate, but that would also decrease his strikeout rate. It’s a sliding scale.
Guys who pitch up in the strike zone are trading more flyballs for more strikeouts, generally. Cruceta’s strength, the ability to miss bats, is directly tied to his propensity to pitch up in the zone. If you get him pitching down in the zone, he would become more of a groundball guy.
He’s a two pitch guy with iffy command. You can change his mechanics to give him a different two pitches if you want, but it’s unlikely to have a substantial effect on his overall value.
Really, the ways pitchers take a big leap forward is by adding velocity (Mark Lowe), adding a new pitch (J.J. Putz), or learning to command previously wild stuff (Brandon Webb). Generally, retooling a guy’s mechanics will be more of a lateral movement than a step forward.
I suspect there may be a reason why the Indians didn’t change Cruceta’s delivery, while they had him in their system for years. If bloggers can tell problems from a video, the coaching staff will be aware of them. Either they tried and failed or for some reason (experience?) they decided that trying was not worthwhile.
For what its worth, the Indians did retool his mechanics. When I saw him in Kinston, he was fastball/curveball/changeup, and all three pitches had good potential. The problem was that his armslot on his curve was completely and totally different than on his FB/CH, so you knew exactly when it was coming before the ball even left his hand. He had almost an entirely different throwing motion for the curveball. It was hilarious.
So, the Indians did away with his curve and converted his change into the splitter, because he wasn’t going to make it a FB/CH guy without a breaking ball or better command.
Cruceta’s already been through one pretty massive overhaul of who he was as a pitcher. This is probably as good a skillset as he’s going to get, and messing with him anymore isn’t a great idea.
Like EC, though, I see him as a potentially terrific reliever. If the velo bump with a move to the ‘pen comes through and he’s throwing 93-97 and gets the splitter into the 84-87 range, he could be real tough.
Really, the ways pitchers take a big leap forward is by adding velocity (Mark Lowe), adding a new pitch (J.J. Putz), or learning to command previously wild stuff (Brandon Webb). Generally, retooling a guy’s mechanics will be more of a lateral movement than a step forward.
I think the last two options, in Cruceta’s case, are his best hopes for success in the majors. He seems to have made some decent progress in our system — one would hope that he could continue to progress a little more, by adding another pitch, or getting more control over the arsenal he does have.
I’d have absolutely no problem with him taking the reins from Julio Mateo in the “Mateo Mop-up” low-leverage innings role (not the high-leverage role that Hargrove was using him in this season, however).
Cruceta’s such a baffling pitcher. When he’s on, he’s on. When he’s off, he’s horrible. It can happen in the same inning, as well as in the same game.
he’s Fruto-licious!
Dave, Milton Bradley is absolutely not a comparable situation. He’s not “a player of marginal value.” Bradley’s a good player and has lots of value, we all know that. That has a lot more in common with the Griffey trade situation, which also brought a decent return even though we had to trade him and were stuck with only one negotiating partner.
I’m talking specifically about the situations we’ve gotten into with players who probably could contribute but aren’t going to be stars, and who may not fit into our roster plans very well. If you don’t wait too long, they can sweeten a bigger trade or be exchanged for other, more useful chips. We at least managed the latter with Choo and Cabrera. But when the player isn’t that valuable alone and you leave yourself without the flexibility to figure out a package deal that works, other teams will just wait you out or pursue other options.
So if you think that’s possible, do you take a chance and trade Putz (who presumably would be worth quite a bit to a team looking for a closer) and hope to turn Cruceta into your closer, knowing you have Soriano and Lowe as backup options (assuming you don’t make both of them starters)? Yeah, it’s a scary proposal, but Putz may be at the peak of his value right now as a “proven closer” and it’s bold moves that have the most chance for a big payoff.
Minor League Relievers are to baseball as skinny slutty blondes are to the entertainment industry.
If I never got another damned thing out of this blog, that quote is worth all the charlie horses in my scrolling finger.
Churchill is on KJR saying that he’s had several sources tell him that Hargrove has been told he’s gone at the end of the year (he’s giving it an 80-90% chance), other minor league staff have been given their walking papers and that the next manager will have to keep Chaves & Pentland…
That and that they want a manager with a “pedigree” instead of a “rookie”, and that Howie, Chuck, and co are still looking at this from a PR standpoint. Meh. I can just see them bringing in Dusty Baker to see if he can blow up our pitchers by overusing them.
You guys are never going to let this manager thing go, are you?
We’ll know when the season ends.
You guys are never going to let this manager thing go, are you?
nope. we live in hope
40 – If true, I wonder if keeping those two would dissuade certain candidates from taking over next year. Exactly what did Chaves or Pentland do this year that warrants them keeping their jobs? Or is it a case of the Ms wanting to keep as many former AAA coaches with the big club given the youth of this team? (Or if you prefer, the org’s tendency to rush guys up as fast as possible).
It just seems weird that the org would undergo a purge throughout the minor league levels and then force a new manager to keep a pitching coach and bench coach from the previous, utterly failed regime.
Regarding Chaves & Pentland:
I really have no idea on the impact that pitching (and especially) hitting coaches have, so I wonder what the more knowledgable baseball minds out there think about the return of these two.
I have always thought that those positions have less effect on players than people generally credit them.
44: I can see the pitching coach staying because of the familiarity with Felix and the younger pitchers that are likely going to be on the roster next year. I can see them keeping the hitting coach for no other reason than to actually have continuity from one season to the next. It’s bee what, 5 hitting coaches now in 5 seasons?
Having more decent arms fighting for the bullpen than roster spots in spring training isn’t exactly a bad thing, and, assuming Mateo’s broken hand and Reed’s wrist lets them come back just fine, a package of Mateo/Cruceta + Reed might net you something interesting if you’re willing to wait until late to settle out the roster.
Note that I did NOT specify what you’d get back- and don’t fixate on those names, either, because there are lots of ways Bavasi could move this offseason. That’s one thing Bavasi has done well during his tenure as GM- acquire some additional talent in such a way that we have some surplus. That plus his recognition that we have lots of
slutty blondesdecent bullpen arms in our minors will likely let us rebuild the ‘pen on the cheap, and potentially give us a surplus of “proven talent” to trade- no more spending millions for Eddie and Shiggy.“Kenji does some things defensively that bother me. His constant stabbing at pitches is just stupid, and that throw yesterday, well, that was pretty brutal. He doesn’t get his body in front of balls well or position himself properly on plays at the plate.
But you know what, all that probably costs the M’s something like 5 runs a year.”
I don’t know about runs, but he gives up lots of bases. You’re absolutely correct about your critique. Five runs seems way, way too low. I’ve seen at least a dozen throws that have resulted in guys getting an extra base.
I don’t know about runs, but he gives up lots of bases. You’re absolutely correct about your critique. Five runs seems way, way too low. I’ve seen at least a dozen throws that have resulted in guys getting an extra base.
So the questions then becomes how much does a good catcher depress the opposing offense. Do you know how much? If it’s a large number, then your argument has merit. If it’s a low number, then what Johjima does is pretty irrelevant.
Note: I don’t know the answer. I’d like to learn something on this. But just throwing out this argument about a player is really useless unless we know what the general league average is AND how much variation there is in players.
I’ve seen at least a dozen throws that have resulted in guys getting an extra base.
Among batting title qualified C’s Kenji is in the middle for stolen base percentage, and also in the middle for fielding percentage, and has 6 errors.
No, he’s not I-Rod. But I-Rod’s got a HOF resume on defense AND offense (and even now, down quite a bit offensively from his peak, he’s pretty damn good, because his defense is still stellar).
There have been a lot of studies done on catcher defense. Keith Woolner has written several of them. In general, the best catcher in baseball saves something like 10-15 runs per season over an average catcher, and the worst is something like 10-15 runs below average. So the total spread from best to worst was generally in the 20-30 run range.
Kenji’s not the worst, and no catcher in the AL West is anything close to the best, so its nowhere near 20-30 runs. 5-10, probably.
I’m talking specifically about the situations we’ve gotten into with players who probably could contribute but aren’t going to be stars, and who may not fit into our roster plans very well. If you don’t wait too long, they can sweeten a bigger trade or be exchanged for other, more useful chips. We at least managed the latter with Choo and Cabrera. But when the player isn’t that valuable alone and you leave yourself without the flexibility to figure out a package deal that works, other teams will just wait you out or pursue other options.
You know why they’ll pursue other options? Because guys like Matt Thornton are everywhere, and they don’t have any value.
The M’s didn’t drop the ball on Thornton. He was a worthless player who was exchanged for another worthless player.
I don’t see anything that makes Kenji a glaring weakness. His PB count’s a bit high, but everything else seems tolerable. Is defense his strength? No. That’s fine. You know why? We went from having a .566 OPS from our catchers last year to a .743 OPS, and that’s with Rene Rivera being a complete waste of plate appearances comparable to letting the pitcher bat.
But look at, say…Paul Lo Duca this year. Lousy fielding percentage, lousy CS rate (almost 80% success against him). Wonder why people aren’t saying “gee, he sucks at catching”. Oh, right, it;s because the Mets are likely to be the NL representative in the World Series. Nevermind.
I seem to remember Thornton got off to a good start in Chicago. I’m assuming he reverted back to his old craptastic ways after that?
I seem to remember Thornton got off to a good start in Chicago. I’m assuming he reverted back to his old craptastic ways after that?
No, he’s actually had a pretty solid year. But that year hadn’t happened when the M’s traded him, and trying to give him retroactive trade value because of what he did after he got traded isn’t realistic.
The M’s didn’t drop the ball on Thornton. He was a worthless player who was exchanged for another worthless player.
I wouldn’t say “worthless”. More like “replacement level”. Which isn’t worthless, per se: if you don’t HAVE a lefty guy who meets that description, picking one off of the trash heap from another organization’s not a bad idea. Just don’t get attached and sign them to a three year, 13 million dollar deal if he has a decent season or three.
But seriously:
Mariner Bullpen ERA: 3.73
Matt Thornton’s ERA: 3.48.
In other words- he wasn’t going to add THAT much value to our bullpen, even if he duplicated his 2006 season in our uniform instead of pinstripes. It’s nifty he’s having a decent year in Chicago, but the proper lesson is that assembling a good bullpen’s not that hard, not that “OMG WE GAVE AWAY THORNTON”.
Kenji’s year so far: .298-.339-.457
Dan Wilson’s best seasons
1995: .278-.336-.416
1996: .285-.330-.444
Surprisingly, it’s not all that different. So, yes, Kenji is having the best hitting season ever for a Mariner catcher, it’s only about 10 points in OBA and in slugging.
So, I wouldn’t say “a season Wilson could only dream about”.
Dan Wilson played in the Kingdome.
Adjust for park Paul.
We should bring back Dan Wilson!!!! OMG he’d be just what this team needs!!!! Gritty!
/*sorry. I’ll go back on my sedatives now.
Hey, I stole your thunder again.
I have always thought that those positions [hitting and pitching coach] have less effect on players than people generally credit them.
I tend to think that pitching coaches can be huge difference-makers for some pitchers but that the effects of hitting coaches are almost always overstated. It seems like there are examples every season of a pitcher improving one of his skills with the help of a different pitching coach whereas I have trouble finding examples of hitters who really benefit from different coaching.
For instance, we have Matt Thornton, who couldn’t find the strike zone to save his life last year, and when he did, the ball landed over the outfield fence a lot more than you would like. He did have a solid strikeout rate, though. He gets sent to Don Cooper, a rather good pitching coach over in Chicago, and he cuts his walk and home run rates in half. I wouldn’t credit all of that improvement to Cooper, but I think there’s little chance those improvements would’ve been realized if Thornton stuck with the M’s.
In a similar situation, the Twins picked Dennys Reyes off the scrap heap last winter and gave him an NRI. He was one of the most extreme groundballers out there, could miss bats (7ish career K/9), and was left-handed to boot. His main difficulty was walking hitters too much. Rick Anderson, a solid pitching coach in Minnesota, got a hold of him, and he cut his walk rate in half, and now he’s arguably one of the best situational lefties in baseball. Anderson similarly helped Eddie Guardado and LaTroy Hawkins to lower their walk rates when they were with the Twins.
Anyway, both of those coaches have had difficulties with other pitchers, and a couple of examples doesn’t prove my position, but I tend to think that pitching coaches can have a real effect on a staff, perhaps particularly with bullpen arms.
I think this just goes to show that relievers are kind of like corner outfielders who can hit….they just aren’t as rare as some GMs would have you believe….
58
..and year. The American League posted an ERA of 5.00 in 1996, where as it is closer to 4.50 this year.
People also need to give up on the idea that Johjima is calling the wrong pitches too.
In every game I’ve seen he looks over to the dugout, gets the pitch from there, then relays it back to the pitcher. This is becomming more and more popular with MLB clubs recently.
50 “Among batting title qualified C’s Kenji is in the middle for stolen base percentage, and also in the middle for fielding percentage, and has 6 errors.”
And of the 53 stolen bases a goodly portion are balls that sail towards the right of second and are flagged down by Betancourt.
Mentioning him with Pudge is like bringing Lucy into a discussion about Uma Thurman.
I think this just goes to show that relievers are kind of like corner outfielders who can hit….they just aren’t as rare as some GMs would have you believe….
I would argue that corner outfielders who can hit seem to hit wherever they play, whereas relief pitchers seem to have more (though certainly not all) of their success/failure tied into coaching, but I fully admit that this is just an impression that I have, not something that I can back up with a boatload of evidence.
I definitely agree that there are quite a few GMs who believe good relief pitching is a lot more rare than it really is, but I think that is partly because GMs seem to get tied up too much with relievers’ results like runs scored against the pitcher, big save totals, etc., rather than just evaluating relief pitchers on their skill set.
You know why they’ll pursue other options? Because guys like Matt Thornton are everywhere, and they don’t have any value.
I think that’s a bit of an overstatement, but in any case it’s an overstatement that could be made about Cruceta as well. I didn’t mean to turn this into a Matt Thornton thread, he’s simply an example. I do think we should have looked to trade him earlier than we did.
If we go to spring training with Cruceta, it needs to be because we expect that he can make the roster. If that seems unlikely, we should look to trade him after the season to another team that thinks he can make theirs.
“Among batting title qualified C’s Kenji is in the middle for stolen base percentage, and also in the middle for fielding percentage, and has 6 errors.”
And of the 53 stolen bases a goodly portion are balls that sail towards the right of second and are flagged down by Betancourt.
Mentioning him with Pudge is like bringing Lucy into a discussion about Uma Thurman.
Lucy Liu? Not a bad choice…but I have electic tastes in women…
Do you have something substantive to bring to the table?
Having a hot flash for Lucy Lieu does not demonstrate the eclectic nature of your taste in women. JADP.
Having a hot flash for Lucy Lieu does not demonstrate the eclectic nature of your taste in women.
The guys who have dated both have told me different….
0 “Among batting title qualified C’s Kenji is in the middle for stolen base percentage, and also in the middle for fielding percentage, and has 6 errors.”
And of the 53 stolen bases a goodly portion are balls that sail towards the right of second and are flagged down by Betancourt.
It’s funny that none of this incredible craptasticness of Johjima that makes people hate his defense actually gets caught in the statistics (aside from some passed balls), but that’s the funny thing- stats for guys like Simmons and Torre (who were also much better offensive players than defensive players as catchers, and regularly got flack for their defense) don’t make them look awful compared to their contemporaries. They just don’t look GOOD (Bench clearly blows them away, just like I-Rod’s in a different class of defensive player from Johjima).
So, yeah… love those subjective impressions. So, when do we start Rivera every day so he can bat .220 with no offensive contribution and we can rave about his defense, because that’s what’s required when you have a no-hit catcher?
The American League posted an ERA of 5.00 in 1996, where as it is closer to 4.50 this year.
Actually, the better way would be this: League average runs per game for the AL in 1995/1996: 5.06/5.39.
League average (so far) for 2006: 4.95
So, yeah… you have to adjust for park AND league when doing a comparison.
The quick and dirty comparison:
Dan Wilson’s peak OPS+ (adjusted for park and league as a percentage of league):
2002: 98
1997: 95
1996: 94
Kenji Johjima’s OPS adjusted for league and NOT adjusted for park (because I don’t have Safeco’s park adjustments handy)
2006: 103
I would guess it’s probably at least 105 once you adjust for Safeco. FWIW, Kenji has an .852 OPS on the road.
So, uh, yeah. Johjima > Wilson. By a fair piece, since Wilson NEVER was a league-average hitter, and Johjima’s considerably better than one.
It seems to me that this article by Dave Gassko at THT comes into play in this discussion. (I’d be interested in Dave and Derek’s comments.)
A fair amount of bases got stolen on Johjima?
Um, didn’t we just get through the stats on curve balls called? And isn’t stealing a base easier with curve balls than fast balls?
(Now, that’s something you can fairly pin on him, but it’s offset by the reasoning that you call for your pitcher’s best pitch).
That being, of course, the discussion of Cruceta, not of Johjima.
I agree that Johjima > Wilson (and by extension, any other catcher the Mariners have ever had.
I was just trying to point out that the difference is not as bad as it might seem to some of us at first thought — because we all remember the end of Wilson’s career (when the performance slide just seemed to go on and on and on year after year after year) and forget that for a couple of years he was actually a decent hitter.
Never mind . . . It’s an interesting article, but it’s actually the discussion of it on BBTF that would bear on Cruceta.
I’m heading towards Corco territory, here . . .
TAM, you might want to work on your linking skills.
Anyways, I’ve seen Gassko talk about chaining before, and honestly, I think he makes too big a deal out of it. And, as always, he really needs to learn to make less conclusive statements. He has a bad habit of showing somewhat interesting information and acting as if he’s closed the case. His data work is almost always better than his writing.
Kinda off topic, but thinking about next year are there any Japanese pitchers other than Matsuzaka that the mariners should be looking at? Uehara maybe?
No, I need to work on my thinking skills; or at least, on not posting when half-asleep. Sorry about that.
From the pictures of Cruceta throwing the only real difference I noticed between his Fastball and Splitter (body wise) is that he seems to fall more towards first base on a Fastball delivery. I’m obviously not an expert. I look forward to reading your perspectives every day(if you’re reading this and post daily I mean you.)
I don’t know about him being next years closer, but I have liked the idea of Soriano and agree Woods could be an option. If Bavasi/Other decides to groom a new closer every year, to trade for other needs the next year, I’m all for it. I thought they should have traded Guardado last offseason with the arms available to replace. This year I’d say it’s more of an ‘if’. There’s no certainty that Soriano will ever pitch the same competitively. I mean look at the shot Holman took that he never looked the same after and that was just a HR after 8 2/3 Perfect. At least we had Buhner instead of a perfect game. Most of us know there have been pitchers who got hit by line drives that, though they physically recovered, were never the same on the field. Herb Score is a different example because of the busted eye socket
From an interview with Yogi Berra Was there a pitcher that gave you trouble? Any pitcher you didn’t like?
No. Well, Herb Score. I remember Herb Score was a tough man. I had a tough time with Alex Kellner in Philadelphia, ’til I got the hang of him. But he gave me a little rough time. But Herb Score could have been another Sandy Koufax, I think, if he didn’t get hit in the eye with Gil McDougald’s line drive.
On the Johjima front I’ve been wondering if the idea is to keep him at catcher long enough to ease a Japanese pitcher or 2 in before Rauls contract is up and Clement may be ready for the show. If Clement comes around defensively, and Johjima was happy and productive as a DH this could be a great way to implement both. Having a productive backup catcher at DH is a luxury I’m sure any Manager could enjoy.
Score’s problems had nothing to do with McDougald’s line drive, as he told everybody he could — it was the standard story, arm damage from overwork. The other is one of baseball’s modern myths.
How is it a Myth? I’m not saying Holman was a future HOFer…
No, no, “the other” story of the demise of Score’s career — the idea that Gil MacDougald’s line drive was what ruined him as a pitcher.