Carlos Truinfel
I just got home, so I’m sure this has been mentioned in the comments somewhere already, but the Mariners announced today that they’ve signed Carlos Truinfel to a reported $1.3 million deal. Truinfel was one of the more hyped Dominican prospects and is represented by Scott Boras. While good information on 16-year-old kids is hard to come by, this is what we’re told.
He’s 6’2, about 180, and he’s a hitting shortstop. The Mariners didn’t sign him for his flash with the leather; this is one of those kids who can swing the bat from an early age. As with any tall 16-year-old who can hit, there are questions about his defense, but that’s normal, and I wouldn’t worry about it. The fact that the M’s took a shot on a kid who can swing the stick is a positive development, and something we didn’t see near enough of before Bill Bavasi and Bob Fontaine came aboard.
Truinfel was scouted personally by the Mariners top international scout, Bob Engle, who has a pretty solid track record with picking kids like this. He’s reportedly leaving the organization at season’s end, so this may be a pretty nice going away present.
So, basically, the M’s just added a high ceiling hitter to the farm system, which is almost never a bad thing. The success rate of big bonus Dominican hitters isn’t great, but it’s good to see the Mariners investing in their farm system and chasing after guys who can hit the ball above all else. While Truinfel is probably at least 4 years away from the major leagues, this is the kind of thing fans should get behind.
Welcome to the club, Carlos Truinfel.
The Ms haven’t had much presence in the Dominican, so for them to get the inside track on a top prospect there such as Truinfel is new and different. But I’m bummed to hear that Engle is leaving. The Ms international scouting has been _the_ stronpoint of the organization, and anything such as this which enervates that strength is to be lamented.
Thanks for posting this Dave. I was looking forward to hearing your take. Hopefully we’ll learn some more about him, and then the rest will come out in due time.
Until he starts growing into his body, I’m not sure how much more can “come out”. He’s 16. His body is going to change pretty dramatically by the time he hits the show, and there’s just so much development that needs to go on before we actually know what we have, that the possibilities for his career are basically limitless.
This is essentially the same profile Miguel Cabrera had when he signed at 16 for a record bonus as a large, offensive shortstop. But it’s also the same as Joel Guzman had. There’s obviously a pretty big difference between Cabrera, one of the five best players in baseball, and Guzman, one of the five best players who finished their season in Durham.
So why is Engle leaving, do you know? And yes that is good that the m’s are investing in a bat, so to speak. Things may indeed change as far as positions and all when he filters through the farm system. Welcome Carlos Truinfel as our newest Mariner.
I’ll wait until the announcement about Engle is actually made (if the backchannel rumors are true) to talk about the why.
While Truinfel is probably at least 4 years away from the major leagues, this is the kind of thing fans should get behind.
“At least 4 years away”? That would put him at 20. You’re saying that his potential upside is being a major leaguer that early? That’s pretty damned hype-worthy if you ask me.
Even if he makes the majors at 20, the kind of performance he’d need to put up to validate four years of hype would have to be incredible. There’s already been enough griping in the media about Felix not living up to advance billing.
The M’s got Matt Tuiasasopo to Double-A by age 20 despite the fact that they drafted him at 18 and he had very marginal performances. They push their kids hard. Truinfel won’t be an exception.
Assuming he plays in short-season ball next year at age 17, he’ll probably debut in A ball in 2008 at age 18. It’s very conceivable that the M’s could have him split 2008 between low-A and high-A, then begin 2009 as a 19-year-old in Double-A. For elite hitting prospects, this isn’t that unheard of. And if he hits well at all during 2009, you’re almost certain to see him in 2010, when he’ll be 20 years old. The M’s don’t let their kids sit at a level and beat up on the competition. Truinfel’s going to have to fail repeatedly to make the Mariners take it slowly with him.
Honestly, if he doesn’t make it to the show by the time he’s 22, he’s probably a bust. If he’s as good as the Mariners think, he’ll probably be up before he can drink legally.
Early favorite nickname:
Carlos Truinfel signed on the same day that the Navy officially retired one of the most iconic cold war symbols of American power, the F-14.
Carlos “Tomcat” Truinfel has a nice ring to it.
That is what I was thinking 20 yrs old. Juniereque?. It will be fun following him through the farm, will it not???
Is there any reason to still be concerned about bogus ages these days in the Dominican, or is that pretty much a thing of the past?
(Of course, if his age was bogus the same way as another Boras client on our roster, it might be a good thing – except that it would invalidate the contract.)
Immigration has gotten very strict on documents relating to border crossing, and since he’s affiliated with Boras, there’s almost no chance that he’s not really 16.
Dave, my big problem with your hypothesis about him reaching by 20 or being a bust by 22 if he doesn’t is that it assumes no changes at the top of the organization. I agree if Bavasi/Fontaine/et all are still in charge that that’s a solid conclusion. But I think there’s at least a 33% shot we see Bavasi gone after this year, and a very high chance he’s out next year if we’re not a playoff team.
The chances that the guys in charge now are the ones calling the shots for Truinfel’s development aren’t very good, IMO.
12 – unless of course, he’s actually 15. 😉
Dave, my big problem with your hypothesis about him reaching by 20 or being a bust by 22 if he doesn’t is that it assumes no changes at the top of the organization. I agree if Bavasi/Fontaine/et all are still in charge that that’s a solid conclusion. But I think there’s at least a 33% shot we see Bavasi gone after this year, and a very high chance he’s out next year if we’re not a playoff team.
Well, I can tell you that your 33% chance that Bavasi is gone after this year is completely wrong. There’s a 0% chance that Bavasi is gone after this year.
The front office is safer than you think.
Anyways, the progression that I’m talking about isn’t a Bavasi only thing, though obviously, he subscribes to the theory. If you look at the big money international signings, they’ve essentially gone one of two ways; get to the show at an early age or change organizations multiple times. Teams generally feel they have a solid grasp of a player’s skills after 3-4 years in an organization. It’s pretty rare for a player to spend more than 5-6 years with the same club without making the major leagues.
Plus, there’s the logistics of the contract. The M’s signed him to a 2007 contract, so they’ll be required to place him on the 40 man roster after the 2010 season, at which point they’ll have three option years to send him back to the minor leagues. So, essentially, he has to be in the majors for good by 2013 at the latest, which would make him 23 years old. Contractually, the team won’t be able to develop him in the minors past the age of 22.
That’s the risk you take when you sign a kid this young. He has to develop early, or he’s probably not going to make it with your organization. The ones that develop early are generally superstars, and the ones that don’t develop end up with another club.
If Truinfel is still in the minors at 22, he probably has lost some time to injury or has repeated at a level or two…which would make him, ta-da, a bust.
Good players rocket through the minors, plain and simple. Hell, Raffy Soriano debuted at 22 after being CONVERTED from a no-hit OF to a P.
That’s good news Dave. I want Bavasi to stay – I don’t love the guy, but I like what he’s doing at the lower levels (through Fontaine), which is more than I can say for half the guys we’d probably get to replace him.
FO stability is a good thing, I think.
Well, if there’s a semi-purge of organizational people, somebody has to hire new people. And if Bavasi is doing any hiring, well….
Until he starts growing into his body, I’m not sure how much more can “come outâ€.
I agree. Hence in due time. Could be a pleasure to witness.
OK, there’s something else in this article I must have missed earlier this summer.
Who the hell is Mario Martinez?
Dave, in the article you linked Engle says “He’s 16, and he has an advance approach to hitting that really its the first thing that attracted our attention”.
Does “advance approach to hitting” mean that the kid has a clue about the strike zone (as it would it one of us were to use it), or “he hit ball real far”?
If it’s the former, that’s the first time I can ever remember the M’s citing that when acquiring someone, which could bode great for the future.
I’m probably reading too much into it.
Who the hell is Mario Martinez?
Well, not to be lame, but like the quoted part of the article says, he’s a Venezuelan kid they signed on July 20th for $600,000. He was supposedly the top hitting prospect in Venezuela this year. Here is the press release.
The guys I talk to don’t have much to say about him because they haven’t seen him themselves. So it’s all “I heard he’s good” type stuff. So, not much info to share beyond the fact that the M’s like him.
Does “advance approach to hitting†mean that the kid has a clue about the strike zone (as it would it one of us were to use it), or “he hit ball real far�
There’s almost no way to scout what we would consider an “approach to hitting” in a 16-year-old. You don’t get to see these kids in game situations, judging their reactions and pich recognition. Teams sign these kids on raw physical abilities such as bat speed, swing mechanics, size, and athleticism.
So no, Engle doesn’t mean that they think that Truinfel is going to be a walk machine.
This is great news! Does he hit righty, lefty or switch?
Not sure if this is really based on anything, it’s some fantasy roster and Truinfel’s link only goes to Google instead of a profile. It says he bats righty, FWIW. Couldn’t find anything else that mentioned either way.
Good players rocket through the minors, plain and simple.
like that Martinez kid playing in Calgary….
OK, add to that “unless their organizations are terminally stupid about it”.
OK, add to that “unless their organizations are terminally stupid about itâ€.
Well, there’s a good chance that the same folks are still in the organization…
…unless they’ve been included in that semi-purge…
You got to love the fact that the M’s have a great reputation in Latin America.
ESPNdeportes.com polled at least a dozen Latin American scouts who agreed that Venezuelan catcher Jesus Montero is the most coveted international prospect available.
Dominicans Engel Bletre (OF), Angel Villalona (3B), Moises Tejeda (SS), Francisco Pena and Esmeily Gonzalez (SS); Venezuelan pitchers Larry Suarez and Euclides Viloria and Australian Jason Smit are the other players who could get better offers.
“One never knows what each organization is thinking, but as far as San Diego, we think Montero, Beltre, Villalona and Tejeda are the best of the group,” said Francisco.
Hottest prospects
1. Jesus Montero, C, Venezuela (16 years old) (Yankees)
He can hit with power to all fields. He has powerful arms, though he will probably end up playing first base.
2. Engel Beltre, OF, Dominicana (16) (Redsox)
A left-handed hitter with extra-base power. He has a powerful throwing arm and plays great defense in the outfield. There’s a rumor that he has a verbal agreement with the Boston Red Sox.
3. Angel Villalona, 3B, Dominicana (16) (Padres)
A five-tool player (hits for average, hits for power, has speed, fields well and has a good arm). Villalona is 6-foot-2 and weighs 200 pounds.
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.
.
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8. Carlos Triunfel, SS, Dominicana (16)(Mariners)
Somewhat similar to Miguel Tejada when he was signed. He has great power and knows how to hit. Scouts say “he bounces the ball off the bat.”
Trunfiel was the eight best prospect (according to espndeportes.com)
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=2505742
To add to this expansion into the latin FA market, reportedly, we offered Villalona, (#3 on the above list), 3 million to sign with us, but he signed with SF for $2.2.
(http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/chronicle/archive/2006/08/20/SPGKPKM1801.DTL)
That’s a list of highly coveted guys, yes, but trust me, the specific rankings on that list are beyond meaningless. Numerical lists are pretty much meaningless at all levels, but for 16 year old kids years away from physical maturity they’re just silly.
Also, I don’t know how it works in Venezuela, but the DR doesn’t have anything close to the open system we have in the states. Each kid is affiliated with a private trainer, and that trainer will have experience dealing with specific teams. Often, teams reach side deals with trainers before the signing period even begins to shut other teams out of the bidding, or to make sure their offer is the only one the kids receive. There’s no way each of the scouts they polled had seen all of those Dominican kids at the time that article was written.
The “similar to Tejada when he was signed” comment makes absolutely no sense. Tejada was a scrap heap pickup who signed for $2,000 and then developed into a star.
The “similar to Tejada when he was signed†comment makes absolutely no sense. Tejada was a scrap heap pickup who signed for $2,000 and then developed into a star.
huh? what scrap-heap?
the only reason Tejada signed for $2000 was that the A’s could get away with low-balling him. No one in the DR in those days was getting huge bonuses– Sosa was signed for about $3,500. Tejada was signed at 17 by Juan Marichal, sent to the A’s DR academy, two years later was on his way through the A’s minor league system, and playing in the majors two years after that–
There’s a big difference between the time when Sosa signed (1985), and when Tejada signed (1993).
The players who get low-balled now are the guys from small towns in the middle of the island. Tejada’s from Bani, where he had decent representation. Nobody was signing for million dollar bonuses at the time, but $2k was far below average.
Re: the scrap heap, there’s a lot of sketchiness and rumors floating around the DR about the Tejada signing. It would be irresponsible to post anything without hard evidence, but suffice it to say his background isn’t the cleanest of the Dominicans playing in the major leagues.