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The Cost of This Team
It seems like, at the moment, the prevailing school of thought on what the Mariners should do this offseason is keep this team almost entirely in tact, but just add two quality starting pitchers to the mix, with most of the general population agreeing that those two pitchers should be Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jason Schmidt. People generally seem to be satisfied with the rest of the roster, and feel that spending the available budget money on starting pitching is the way to go.
Except that it’s not. Assuming the organization don’t raise payroll significantly, the Mariners can’t afford to do that. They can’t even really come close.
The team has spent approximately $81 to $88 million on its 25 man roster the past several years. You’ll hear the team report a higher payroll figure that includes the entirity of the 40 man roster, buyouts and contract bonuses, and a reserve fund for “special circumstances”. But, in reality, the combined yearly salaries of the team’s 25 man roster has been in the $80-90 million range, and there’s no reason to believe that the ownership is going to give management significantly more to work with this offseason. You can argue that they should, but that’s another post entirely. Dealing with the realities of a budget that isn’t likely to increase by much if any, we’re bound by an upper limit of about $85-$90 million for the 25 man roster.
As it stands now, the Mariners have approximately $75-$80 million committed to 2006 contracts for the 23 players that most people assume should return next year. Take a look:
Player 2006 Salary 2007 Salary Richie Sexson $13,000,000.00 $14,000,000.00 Adrian Beltre $12,900,000.00 $13,500,000.00 Ichiro Suzuki $12,530,000.00 $12,530,000.00 Jarrod Washburn $7,450,000.00 $9,500,000.00 Kenji Johjima $5,433,333.00 $5,433,333.00 Raul Ibanez $4,916,667.00 $5,000,000.00 Ben Broussard $2,487,500.00 $4,000,000.00 J.J. Putz $415,000.00 $3,500,000.00 Rafael Soriano $450,000.00 $3,000,000.00 Eduardo Perez $1,750,000.00 $2,000,000.00 Julio Mateo $700,000.00 $1,000,000.00 Willie Bloomquist $650,000.00 $850,000.00 Chris Snelling $328,500.00 $500,000.00 Yuni Betancourt $677,500.00 $450,000.00 Felix Hernandez $340,000.00 $400,000.00 Jose Lopez $335,000.00 $400,000.00 George Sherrill $333,000.00 $400,000.00 Jeremy Reed $375,000.00 $375,000.00 Jake Woods $332,000.00 $332,000.00 Mark Lowe $328,500.00 $328,500.00 Emiliano Fruto $328,500.00 $328,500.00 Rene Rivera $328,500.00 $328,500.00 Total $66,389,000.00 $78,155,833.00
That’s a complete roster, minus two starting pitchers. The salaries for Putz, Soriano, Broussard, and Snelling are estimates, as they are arbitration eligible and we won’t know exactly what they’re going to earn next year until some point this winter. That said, I’m pretty confident that the esimates are pretty close to what they’ll be looking at, salary wise, next year. Some of the names are easily replaced with others; Fruto and Woods could easily be Baek and Huber, but for salary purposes, it doesn’t really matter.
While it’s true that we’re shedding the costs of Pineiro, Meche, Guardado, and Spiezio, we’re also giving out pretty significant raises. Putz, Soriano, and Broussard are going to get large increases in their pay through arbitration, Jarrod Washburn has a $2 million salary bump for 2007, Richie Sexson gets $1 million more, and the salary escalations for Beltre, Mateo, Bloomquist, and Perez total almost $1.5 million combined. As you can see from the total column, it will cost almost $12 million more to field this same roster next year compared to this year.
That leaves the Mariners with approximately $7-12 million (giving the team a payroll range of $85-$90 million for the 25 man roster) in spending money for the offseason, depending on how the arbitration cases go. $7-$12 million for two starting pitchers. That might get you Daisuke Matsuzaka, as long as the posting fee doesn’t count against payroll, but then you’re done. Would you be happy if the Mariners essentially brought back this same team with just Matsuzaka (or Schmidt, or whatever $10 million pitcher you think we’d acquire) added to the rotation to replace Gil Meche?
I don’t think so. I wouldn’t be. This team still has some issues that need to be resolved, and acquiring one starting pitcher and asking the rest of the team to pick up the slack isn’t the kind of offseason that most of us are hoping for.
If you want the Mariners to make significant additions to this roster, you necessarily have to be in favor of significant subtractions. The Mariners are in line to pay Sexson, Beltre, Ichiro, and Washburn $49 million for next season, leaving about $40 million for the other 21 players. When you have 54 percent of your payroll tied up in four players, those guys have to provide a significant contribution to the team. It’s nearly impossible to create a supporting cast good enough to carry those four players to the playoffs. The Big Four, salary wise, have to produce at a higher level for this team to succeed.
Or, alternately, one of them has to go. This team could create significant budget room by trading one of these four players, giving them enough budget room to replace them with a similarly compensated but higher performing player. Considering the team already has significant holes in the rotation, it’s extremely unlikely they would move Jarrod Washburn, and I’m not sure they could even if they wanted to. So, realistically, if you want any kind of serious upgrade this offseason, one of Sexson, Beltre, or Ichiro has to go.
Essentially, the M’s have two options. Keep this team in tact and make just one significant move this offseason, or remove one of the highly paid players that is already here in order to create room for a more complete roster.
Sexson, Beltre, or Ichiro; which one would you trade?
Comments
227 Responses to “The Cost of This Team”
Put me down for Big Richie. I worry about his age and fondness for digesting uncooked meat.
I’d trade Beltre. The reason for this is that he’s overpaid, underachieving and is just plain ugly. I think if we traded him now we could get a couple of pretty good prospects such as a pitcher and maybe a third baseman.
They’re not going to trade Ichiro, so this essentially comes down to a Sexson or Beltre discussion.
I’m not entirely convinced we could deal either of them without taking any salary in return, but assuming you could Sexson seems like the safer bet to have enough trade value to pull that off. A smart organization might be willing to take Beltre off our hands for 75 cents on the dollar, realizing that Safeco’s a big chunk of his problem. But there aren’t really any internal candidates to fill third immediately (or second if you move Pezzer to third), so I don’t see the value there anyway.
It has to be Richie, IMO. Deal Richie, move Benuardo to first, Raul to DH, and split the Sexson savings on starting pitcher #2 and a new left fielder (or cf if you move Ichiro back).
I don’t really think we have any other options.
That’s easy… I don’t believe they would ever trade Ichiro, unless he demanded it. He’s too valuable to the team - both on and off the field. So, that narrows it down to Sexson vs. Beltre, and that’s an easy decision. I would trade Sexson because he’s A)older, B) we already have his replacement and C) he has more trade value, so he could get us more in return.
3. So you’re saying replacing a really good fielding, power hitting first baseman for the older/poor fielding/poor hitting combination of Edurado Perez and Ben Broussard?
It has to be Richie, IMO. Deal Richie, move Benuardo to first, Raul to DH, and split the Sexson savings on starting pitcher #2 and a new left fielder (or cf if you move Ichiro back).
I didn’t put this in the post, because I didn’t want to turn this into a thread just about Sexson, but yea, I agree, this one’s a real easy call. Dealing Sexson wouldn’t be hard at all, as there are a lot of teams that are going to be shopping for a right-handed power bat, and Sexson at 2/28 looks a hell of a lot better than Carlos Lee at 5/75. You wouldn’t have to send any cash with him, thanks to his solid last four months, and I’m pretty sure you could get a B level prospect for him even without eating salary.
Other teams, who haven’t already committed huge money to underperforming players, can fit the last two years of Richie’s deal in their budgets, no problem. The Mariners can’t. They can’t pay him $14 million to not be an all-star. They need to spend that money better. That doesn’t mean that Richie has no value around the league; he just isn’t a good fit for the Mariners anymore.
Trading Sexson is the pretty clear choice, I think.
dnc - we think alike. I don’t think any team would take the salary completely off our hands, either. When the Marlins dealt Carlos Delgado this winter, they paid $5M of his remaining salary and got Petit, Jacobs and Psomas. I don’t think we could get quite that much - but I think we could get something similar. The only question becomes where. Who would need a thumping 1B for next season: SF? Cincy? Baltimore? Pittsburgh? Who else?
If we could pick on Cincy, that would be ideal. As an opposing GM, I’m vehemently in favor of their policy of trading position players for middle relievers.
3. So you’re saying replacing a really good fielding, power hitting first baseman for the older/poor fielding/poor hitting combination of Edurado Perez and Ben Broussard?
What are you talking about? Who is poor hitting?
Three-year splits:
Broussard vs. RHP: .264/.337/.476
Perez vs. LHP: .288/.397/.561
Getting that kind of production for $6M is a lot better than getting Sexson’s production for $14M. And…sorry to break it to you, but Sexson’s no Gold Glover.
Sexson, definitely.
It’s easy to want to trade Beltre considering his (somewhat, the level of it is arguable) disappointing performance since he signed his large contract; but the reality is that we wouldn’t get significant value back for him considering his recent performance and contract status. The upside of the possibility of him turning things around (which is admittedly slim at this point) is bigger than the upside of what we’d get back in trade.
Sexson, on the other hand, could easily bring back something shiny.
9. Well they haven’t done much for us. Perez since the trade, 17-83 hitting .203 with 1 homerun. Broussard, 35-140 hitting .250 with 7 homeruns.
Gotta love what Richie has done, but….Richie has to go.
Broussard is younger, and has been getting progressively better the past 3 years. Further, we can easily find some right handed bat that can put up similar numbers to Perez, if (or when) Perez fades next year.
Better yet would be to trade both Richie and Broussard, if Ben is going to actually make $4M next year…go with Raul at first, Snelling at DH, and get J. Jones from Chicago for LF…but that is beyond the Mariner’s FO abilities…
Dave, you might be looking at different numbers, like using the CBA ones instead of the real budget ones, but some of your salary numbers don’t seem to mesh with this source here
Beltre, simply, would get more in return.
No, simply, he wouldn’t
14 - I think Beltre is more valuable thanks to his position, age and defense, BUT:
a) He is signed for three more years rather than two.
b) A Sexson acquisition would much more likely be embraced by a fan base. He’s a known commodity and isn’t perceived to have been a one year wonder.
I would imagine Sexson has significantly more trade value.
Ooohh, a free pass to rosterbate!
Not only would I deal Sexson (preferably for a young pitcher that could compete for the last rotation spot), I’d talk to Houston about a Beltre for Morgan Ensberg swap considering that Houston over the past few years will make up any excuse to keep Ensberg out of the lineup.
Assuming that move isn’t a pipedream, you’d end up with a lineup of: Ichiro, Snelling, ?????? , Ensberg, Ibanez, Johjima, Benuardo, Lopez, Betancourt.
Who do you get to fill that hole?
Obviously no sane person on a budget would dish out 5/75 for Lee or Soriano. That leaves you with Alou (productive, but subject to attrition), or perhaps Nomar Garciaparra (ditto). And those aren’t really the type of players a rebuilding team should be blowing their allowance on.
It seems unlikely we could contend with Matsuzaka, Felix, Washburn and two spots worth of Replacement Level Fodder, given that our run-production in 2007 is middle of the road.
I think the best route would be to find next year’s Marcus Thames, Josh Williangham or Dan Uggla… Or pray that you win the Miguel Cabrera Sweepstakes, should they be offered. [Who would you trade for Cabrera? I'd give the Marlins pretty much anything but Felix, provided we felt we could ink Miggy to a 7/100 deal (or whatever the market equivalent of that becomes)].
Sexson really isn’t that old since he’ll only be 31 in December. That’s the reason I wouldn’t trade him. He’s hit a lot of homeruns which is the reason we signed him. Beltre was signed because we thought he could hit 25-35 homeruns a year. I would rethink it if we moved the LF fence in but for now I would trade Beltre.
I know everyone is quick to deal Sexson, but if you can look past his batting average , just like you do pitcher’s era, then you’d see that he is only the third right handed batter to do good at Safeco. A-Rod, Bastard, had one good year, other than that it was Edagar and Steroid-Boonie. I say keep Beltre, Sexson, Ichiro, Washburn, and wait one year to do a salary dump on the crap scrappie, middle relief, gritty, buy-them-for a buck players, that you can get in any organization. By the way, Cha Seung Baek is a stud in EAsports MLB 2005, he is the right-handed Moyer, and I’ve got 2 CY Young awards out of him.
My gut would rather move Beltre than Sexson (and whenever Beltre is falling on one knee while hopelessly flailing at an outside pitch, my gut is joined by every other fibre of my body). But my brain says otherwise. Yeah, Richie’s wingspan saves some runs, and when he’s hitting (like last year or the second half of this year) he gets a lot of dingers. However, first basemen — even “power hitting” first baseman — are more fungible than slick-fielding 3rd basemen. There are lots of people who can play a decent 1st base (including a couple already on the team). I know there’s a lot of people disappointed in Beltre because he didn’t equal his walk year in LA, but Beltre’s a bigger upgrade at his position than Sexson is at his, and would be harder to replace. Who would you play in place of Beltre? The Dobber? Morse? Bloomquist?
Something else to consider: you’ve got Raul who can play first, or split time there. The team has a glut of outfielders coming up. We know Snelling can hit. Jones might too, given a bit more time and seasoning. Reed might put up better numbers with a fully-healed wrist. Putting Raul at 1st part of the time opens up a spot for one them, and they don’t cost the team anything extra.
[Pineiro]
Get rid of Sexson, get a starting pitcher for him, and then go and get Seung-Yeop Lee and Matsuzaka.
Beltre: younger, more upside. Any GM would want him anchoring the hot spot. If he could only maintain his second-half for the whole season, then you could understand why he would, simply, get more in return.
The only hiccups would be his contract, and if he were dealt the M’s would be undoubtedly on hook for a good chunk.
By the way, nice with the snappy come-baks David* It’s always nice to have baseball discussions with a good “Snap- aw no you didn’” interspersed!
I would be intensely shocked to see the M’s even consider dealing Ichiro. He’s more the face of this franchise than anyone. With Boone, Wilson, Edgar, and Moyer all gone, he’s probably the only player left on the team that the common, everyday fan comes to the ballpark to see. Sure there’s a few folks that are able to latch on to Raul. A few others have grown an attachment to Willie Bloomquist. Beyond that, though, the kids only talk about Ichiro. Felix isn’t there yet. Neither is Yu-Bet, Jose, Kenji, Doyle, or any of the recent cast of characters. Ichiro is, for many of the money-spending commonfolk M’s fans, the face of the franchise, and the only one they endear themselves to. The ramifications for trading Ichiro would be more negative than positive, even if we were able to land David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Delgado for him.
Beltre — it’s a “damned if you do and damned if you don’t” scenario. He’s too valuable to the M’s and yet too burdensome, too. I will say this, though. Even though he hasn’t been quite the player everyone expected him to be, he hasn’t completely backslidden into oblivion like the other curses we’ve had at third. Even if it’s merely slight, he has improved this year. Let’s not forget that last year he had his career high in doubles, and he broke it this year (and certainly could reach 40 doubles yet this season). His second half of this season, while not spectacular, still has been one of the best for AL 3rd Baseman. He’d probably thrive offensively in a different ballpark, and most certainly would be an offensive force in the NL. If an NL GM offers something crazy stupid for him, you gotta answer the phone. But trading Adrian (especially if you have to thrown in cash) would likely do more harm than good.
Which, of course, leads us to Sexson (as seems to pretty much be consensus around here). I do agree that of these three, Sexson probably is the most tradeable, and would fetch a decent return without us having to send along briefcases full of cash. My only hesitation is that I’m really curious who will give us his production. Certainly it’s reasonable to expect better seasons and more power out of Jose Lopez, Doyle, and Kenji Johjima. But will that cover the 30-40 HRs + 100-130 RBIs? I’m not totally convinced. We’re already one of the bottom feeders in the AL for run production — as much as I’m not really a huge fan of his, how would losing Richie Sexson help this cause? I’m not certain I can answer that.
I agree that we’ll have to shed salary in order to even get some league-average starting pitching to help fill HUGE holes in the rotation. It’s probably going to mean that Sexson will be traded (and he probably should). But I’m not totally convinced our offense will be fine without him. A healthy Doyle would help, certainly. But that’s an awful lot of production that would be removed from an already weak offense.
I know everyone is quick to deal Sexson, but if you can look past his batting average , just like you do pitcher’s era, then you’d see that he is only the third right handed batter to do good at Safeco. A-Rod, Bastard, had one good year, other than that it was Edagar and Steroid-Boonie. I say keep Beltre, Sexson, Ichiro, Washburn, and wait one year to do a salary dump on the crap scrappie, middle relief, gritty, buy-them-for a buck players, that you can get in any organization. By the way, Cha Seung Baek is a stud in EAsports MLB 2005, he is the right-handed Moyer, and I’ve got 2 CY Young awards out of him.
I’m not sure everyone’s looking at BA alone.
I’m assuming what you mean is that one year isn’t enough to count as doing well in Safeco. Wouldn’t that mean Sexson must have done well in both years since you qualify him as doing well at Safeco?
I don’t have home stats for last year, so I’ll just provide the overall and not argue against it for now:
2005 - .910 OPS overall
2006 - .772 OPS at Safeco
.772 isn’t exactly overwhelming. Taking into account $13m this year and his average-at-best defense, it’s pretty nasty. Still, with the point being how well he hits at Safeco, I don’t think he’s had two good years.
To me this seems like a no-brainer. The only one we could deal is Sexson. Our return on Beltre would be a C level prospect or two and we would have to eat about $15 mil of his remaining contract. We already have Sexson’s replacement and could probably deal him for either a defensive LF or a strike out prone DH and a level B pitching prospect.
As bad as it sounds, putting Reed in LF and DH Raul and having Schmidt on the mound is better than Raul in LF with Sexson at first and Piniero on the mound.
I know everyone is quick to deal Sexson, but if you can look past his batting average…
It’s not his batting average that’s the problem: .263 last year is effectively the same as his .259 this year, and we didn’t really have any complaints in 2005. The problem is his drop in OBP (.369 last year, .336 this year) and SLG (.541 last year, .494 this year) which adds up to a huge drop in OPS (.910 last year, .830 this year, well below his .875 career average). His OPS is lower than it’s been since 1999.
By the way, Cha Seung Baek is a stud in EAsports MLB 2005, he is the right-handed Moyer, and I’ve got 2 CY Young awards out of him.
Great. Now if we can convince the rest of MLB to play out the games online instead of actually having human teams play in real stadiums, the Mariners will be on their way to a World Series victory. Bummer that none of us will be able to experience it in person and the trophy is just a bunch of pixels.
Oh wait, the Giants are rolling out 8 virtual cyborg Barry Bonds. We’re screwed.
#22-Forgive me for posting a lineup, but to make my point known, look at this lineup if you had Seung-Yeop Lee in there.
Ichiro-L
Doyle-L
Beltre-R
Ibanez-L
Johjima-R
Lee-L
Lopez-R
Broussard-L
Betancourt-R
5 lefties in your lineup that plays 81 games in a ballpark kindest to left handed hitters, and all 5 of them very good professional hitters. Oh, and also the other 4 guys, Beltre, Lopez, YuBet, and Joh are not half bad last time I checked.
Let’s see, Joh and Betancourt are going to hit .300 this year, we obviously saw in the second half of the season what Beltre is capable of doing as a #2 or #3 hitter, and JoLo was an All-Star this year and could get better over time.
Combine all those factors along with the possibility of the M’s hitters maybe getting more patient at the plate IF Hargrove gets fired and drawing more walks. . .
Need I say more?
Oh, and one more thing in regards to losing Sexson’s production out of the lineup. Certainly no one believes Raul is going to have yet another career year next season? It’s possible, sure — folks have been wrong with him before. But even I, often accused of being an optimist, wouldn’t bet the 2007 season that he’d have another season like he has had in 2006. It’s more likely that he’d suffer a bit of decline, and losing that (however significant it is) production, combined with the loss of Sexson, would decrease our chances, too. Of course, it’s easier to find production at 1B, but how many 30+ HR 125 RBI guys are out there on the cheap?
In order, Ichiro, Sexson, and then Beltre. Sexson’s the most expendable of the three IMO, but Ichiro would most likely yield the most return between the two. Beltre’s too valuable to the team right now, regardless of his contract.
#29-True, but surely he’s not going to go Jeff Cirillo on us and hit .230 next year. Would he?
But Ibanez does have a letdown next year you could just switch S.Y. Lee to the #4 spot and Ibanez down to #6.
Remember too that Adam Jones and T.J. Bohn are coming and should really be Major League ready by 2008 and one of them could always replace Ibanez if he starts to catch “Senior Citizen-itus” and falters at the end of his career.
Can we say Ichiro AND Sexson?
Ichiro would bring at least one A prospect. Sexson, even if to just get rid of his salary, would be worthy of a B prospect.
Ichiro will stay in Seattle for as long as he wants. If he doesn’t get too pissed off at the team, they’ll let him play the outfield from his wheelchair.
Ichiro costs WAY too much for his production. He’s overrated, and would be more valuable to this franchise if we dealt him for prospects. Besides, I’m not convinced he wants to play here past this year.
Ichiro costs WAY too much for his production. He’s overrated, and would be more valuable to this franchise if we dealt him for prospects.
Baseball sense ONLY (and I’m not so sure at that). PR & Marketing is another story…and those are not things to be ignored or scorned. It’s popular for statheads to do that…but a business is not run by statistics alone.
Well, Ichiro’s not going anywhere, so leaving him out of the discussion, I have to say Sexson.
He’s overrated where Adrian is underrated, older, plays a less important position with far inferior defense. We can get more out of a Sexson deal than we could from Beltre, and I highly doubt there’ll be much difference in the value of the two going forward.
Since 2003 Broussard hit 16, 17, 19, and 20 HRs (that 20 is CLE+SEA combined), and he’s a lefty. Note that while Jacobs field has similar RF dimensions to Safeco, in terms of HRs Jacobs field has actually been more of a pitcher’s park than Safeco every one of those years except 2005 (yeah, that surprised me too). Is Broussard equal to Sexson? Of course not, but he doesn’t cost $14M either (he’s half of Sexson’s production at about a quarter the price). If you’re going to pay for pitching, you have to find ways to do more with less everywhere else.
As for Ichiro: he brings in more revenue than any other single player on the team (given the turnover in “names” on the roster I wouldn’t be surprised if he brings in more revenue than all the rest of them combined). And he has a personal relationship with the team’s primary owner. He’s not going anywhere else unless that’s what he wants. Since we have no firm evidence of that, speculating about it is kind of pointless.
22 & 28
Just how attainable is this “Lee” dude? What’s his current status regarding wherever he plays now?
I would say trade Sexson, although if a team that needs a CF badly (Boston comes to mind) offered a boatload of prospects for Ichiro and Ichiro wanted to leave…
I’d put all three of them out there and see what I get offered, and I’d be willing to deal all three if the price was right. It would absolutely kill the fan base, but I’d do it.
But if I only had one to dangle out there… Sexson is clearly the one. Beltre’s hitting problems can be fixed with an adjustment to the leftfield fences. Sexson’s problem is that he’s in decline. Ichiro… he’s not hitting like a $12M player, but he probably pays for himself twice over in international merchandising and TV.
And while I’m rosterbating… I’d try to deal Sexson to Houston or Los Angeles Not Orange County.
Ok, I would love it if we moved Sexson–as I think any intelligent fan would–but truth is, he’s a local boy and I just don’t think ownership will approve a trade. This seems like another situation where bloggers will be gnashing their teeth over what they deem an obvious move, while the politics of the situation will preclude it happening.
#38, Seung-Yeop Lee signed one-year contract with Yomiuri Giants at the end of last season, so once the season is over he will become a Free Agent and can sign with whoever he wants. Lee made no secret about wanting to play in the major league. (Yomiuri owner put on an order to retain Lee, but that seems unlikely. Reports say major league scouts have been scouting him pretty much all season long.) He’s a good left-handed bat that can provide some power as well. His defense on 1B is average: not bad, but not great either.
I agree with everyone here that unless Ichiro demands a trade, either Sexson or Beltre has to go. Since Richie is more tradable, he probably will have to go. Besides we can have Broussard/Perez play 1B (maybe move Doyle or Raul to DH?), whereas we don’t have a clear candidate to replace Beltre if we trade him.
Seung-Yeop Lee
41: Does that mean the M’s won’t trade Willie for ten pounds of catfish?
for all the BrushPrairieisms from Rizzs, does the average fan think of Richie as their hometown boy? I wonder if Raul might be thought of more as the ‘real Mariner’ by the base-level fan ….
so if Benuardo go back to playing 1st where they both feel more comfortable rather than trying to learn to DH fulltime, what could we expect?
They are at 30 HRs now, and if you go by the projected numbers they should come in at about 111 RBI, .332 OBP & .470 SLG. Richie is projected at 33 HR, 107 RBI, .331 OBP & .486 SLG
oh, and if Arte Moreno goes through with his promised ‘major’ move, does that put pressure on the front office, and do they bow to that pressure?
I’d say Ichiro. This won’t happen but it might be the best option. We could get some great SP prospects for him. Betancourt could become our #1 hitter. Reed or Jones would take over CF. This option does probably require Ibanez to play another season in LF which nobody is too happy about.
Sexson is expensive, very expensive and he has a lot of value but I’m not sure that we would be able to fill the hole that this move would make in our lineup. He had a horrible slump but has really turned around his season (.318/.401/.601 since the allstar break). If we are going to be a really good team next year I think we need a hitter in our lineup who really has the ability to hit for 900+ OPS. If you don’t trade Sexson then you probably don’t need Broussard/Perez too much and then you could move Ibanez to DH.
If we trade Washburn, we are basically forced to fill his spot with a replacement player. The mariners probably should trade him and try to bail on the contract as much as possible but we would probably be giving him away (or maybe even pay someone to take him)
Trading Beltre doesn’t make much sense. Right now in other teams’ minds he is probably a 3B with potential that plays good defense but probably won’t take the next big step. I guess it depends on how likely he is to improve. If he doesn’t improve at all then you should have dumped him. I personally think that he is one of the players on the team who could really take us to the next level if he can step up his game (like he could).
Another option would be to trade or not resign the Perez/Broussard tag team. This would save us about 5 million which isn’t as much as a lot of the other options but is enough to get a lower tier SP. Then we would move Ibanez to DH and plug Reed or Jones in LF (or CF if Ichiro moves back). This isn’t as exciting but might work out ok in the end and would avoid any huge moves. It would also give us better depth off the bench since we would remove two guys who can only play 1B or DH. We would lose a little production in LF but get better defense and the better pitching would easily make up for the lost offensive production too.
Put me down for Sexson. First basemen with power always seem to be overrated by the market. It’s really not that hard to find them, but GMs seem to overpay for them fairly often.
I don’t have faith in another GM valuing Beltre such that the Mariners would get fair value in return for him. It’s possible, and given Beltre’s maddening inconsistency (which doesn’t look like it’s going away) I’d certainly listen to offers for Beltre, but I don’t see him declining over the next couple years like I’d expect Sexson to decline, and Beltre’s defense is great.
Ichiro, in CF, is an extremely valuable player. He doesn’t even have a lot of experience out there (yet), and I see him covering ground as one of the rangiest CF around. His OBP of .364 this year would rank him in a virtual tie with Johnny Damon for 4th best OBP amongst CF with 300+ PA this season, according to the positional assignments given by Baseball Prospectus. So that’s great defense at a key defensive position, and above average hitting for that position. All of that for a one-year, $11M deal? Where can I sign up?
Ichiro generates enough revenue via Japanese tourists visiting Safeco to easily justify his salary. He is almost “free money” in that moving him would reduce team revenues by close to the same amount as his salary. (Of course, that doesn’t mean the team puts all of that extra ticket revenue into payroll.)
Sexson’s contract easily makes him more tradable. He has the most value to a team that is a contender right now, but that needs add more power to the linuep. A team such as that can take on Sexson without risking crippling the team financially for years.
I think Broussard might be a big ? if we are going to rely on him to generate a large amount of offense. He’s a decent hitter but suffers from an approach where he hacks at everything and hopes its a fastball. He stikes out a lot and doesn’t walk that much. He is much cheaper than Sexson but frankly if I’m looking to get the best production I’d go with Sexson over Broussard any day of the week. Plus, guys its not like Sexson is in some sort of spiraling decline. Broussard isn’t too much younger and if you look closer at Sexson’s year, he isn’t losing much of anything. He’s basically the same player he was last year but went through a rather dramatic slump. Sexson is prone to slumps because of his swing and approach at the plate but he has recovered and hasn’t shown any signs of falling apart in the second half of the season. It just sounds to me like a lot of people are thinking we can get rid of Sexson and use Broussard to get the same production.
40…totally agree
I think it’s easy to agree with most that trading Sexson is the good route. Without the context of trade specifics including the other players involved I don’t think I could choose between the 3. I would trade Ichiro with his overseas marketing and everything in the right deal. I would trade Ibanez even quicker, but that’s not the debate.
Since June 1, Beltre is slugging .523, tops among AL third baseman. Beltre is far more likely to win a gold glove than Sexson. It’s harder to find a 3b that could than a 1b that could.
19…Beltre is slugging .450 for the season, including .434 at Safeco. His OPS at the Safe is .744 this year. For as much as Sexson hits better than Beltre at the Safe his 2007 SLg% .461 with an OPS of .772. If Sexson is one of the few good right handed hitters at Safeco how is Beltre not? A .028 difference in home park OPS is a very fine line. So is .027 SLG.
I guess the fact that they have matched up pretty closely in overall numbers (aside from HR) and most of us here feel that Sexson’s been far superior to Beltre shows that Sexson’s overrated and/or Beltre’s underrated. If I was a GM of an NL team that needed a 3B or 1B I would look to pry one of the 2 from the M’s. I think that either could have at least a few more productive years in the NL. Beltre would seem to have the bigger upside and longer career left, so I don’t see how he would be so difficult to shop.
great breakdown - in view of salary/value the top priority trade bait must be; 1.Sexton 2.Mateo and then 3.Willy Bloomie as throw-in for combo package, well throw-in Grover too - and hope for solid SP + LH bat… er don’t care about LH, happy with a good OPS bat.
Plus, guys its not like Sexson is in some sort of spiraling decline.
Where are you drawing that conclusion from?
Broussard isn’t too much younger and if you look closer at Sexson’s year, he isn’t losing much of anything.
21 months is a very sizeable difference, especially when you are hitting and passing 30.
Also, different people do take different career paths. Broussard has shown to be steadily improving, while Sexson has been generally declining for years. Could Broussard begin to level off and take steps back? Of course. That said, would you take a (random numbers) 40% shot at improvement or 10%?
There’s no way you can say with a straight face that Sexson isn’t losing much this year.
Since 2003 Broussard hit 16, 17, 19, and 20 HRs (that 20 is CLE+SEA combined), and he’s a lefty. Note that while Jacobs field has similar RF dimensions to Safeco, in terms of HRs Jacobs field has actually been more of a pitcher’s park than Safeco every one of those years except 2005 (yeah, that surprised me too). Is Broussard equal to Sexson? Of course not, but he doesn’t cost $14M either (he’s half of Sexson’s production at about a quarter the price). If you’re going to pay for pitching, you have to find ways to do more with less everywhere else.
ESPN’s park factors are attrocious. They’re not even close to being accurate. So no, Jacobs has not been more pitcher friendly than Safeco.
53: I can say with a straight face that Sexson isn’t losing much this year. Yes, he started slowly, but his post-ASB numbers (when he would be older than his Pre-ASB numbers) are .311/.394/.588…That’s not just all-star caliber, that MVP discussion caliber. Yes, he had a slump early in the year, but I don’t think there’s any evidence here of a “Spiraling decline.” I’d also like to see the evidence that says that power hitters decline in general in their early 30’s. Unfortunately, much of the recent data could be tainted by steroid use (no allegations here, simply a potential influence on the numbers), but many power hitters continue slugging into their mid-late 30’s without a huge drop-off.
Which, of course, leads us to Sexson (as seems to pretty much be consensus around here). I do agree that of these three, Sexson probably is the most tradeable, and would fetch a decent return without us having to send along briefcases full of cash. My only hesitation is that I’m really curious who will give us his production. Certainly it’s reasonable to expect better seasons and more power out of Jose Lopez, Doyle, and Kenji Johjima. But will that cover the 30-40 HRs + 100-130 RBIs? I’m not totally convinced. We’re already one of the bottom feeders in the AL for run production — as much as I’m not really a huge fan of his, how would losing Richie Sexson help this cause? I’m not certain I can answer that.
The offseason plan addresses the issue. It shouldn’t come as a big surprise, considering my noted disdain for spending big money on free agent pitching, but I clear a lot of salary space to provide a pretty significant offensive upgrade.
Don’t worry, I’m not in favor of just removing Sexson from the offense and trying to get by. But I think that by removing Sexson, and replacing him with an even better hitter, the team could be significantly improved moreso than just throwing cash at a pitcher.
53: I can say with a straight face that Sexson isn’t losing much this year. Yes, he started slowly, but his post-ASB numbers (when he would be older than his Pre-ASB numbers) are .311/.394/.588…That’s not just all-star caliber, that MVP discussion caliber. Yes, he had a slump early in the year, but I don’t think there’s any evidence here of a “Spiraling decline.” I’d also like to see the evidence that says that power hitters decline in general in their early 30’s. Unfortunately, much of the recent data could be tainted by steroid use (no allegations here, simply a potential influence on the numbers), but many power hitters continue slugging into their mid-late 30’s without a huge drop-off.
Check out Sexson’s career first half/second half splits. He always hits much, much better when the weather warms up. It wasn’t a fluke that was followed by a regression to his true talent level. His true talent level includes a mediocre first half and a good second half. Which, overall, just isn’t worth $14 million per year.
And really, if you haven’t seen the evidence that sluggers age in their 30s, you haven’t done enough reading. It’s one of the most obvious facts in baseball.
Dave, I’m not saying that Richie’s true talent level is exemplified by his second half, I am only pointing out that there isn’t any evidence of this Spiraling Decline some people are mentioning.
As for sluggers after their 30th birthday, looking through the league HR leaders, we find Ortiz (almost 31), Soriano (30), Dye (32), Berkman (30), and Thome (36) all in the top 10. Of the next 11, 8 of them have seen their 30th birthday. Home run hitters in their 20’s are very rare. And while most of these guys are just over the 30 mark, There are enough (Dye, berkman, thome, delgado, thomas, giambi, ramirez) that are odler tham Richie that I don’t belive he can’t continue to hit right where he has been for the rest of this contract.
Dave, I’m not saying that Richie’s true talent level is exemplified by his second half, I am only pointing out that there isn’t any evidence of this Spiraling Decline some people are mentioning.
Oh, there’s a lot of evidence of decline. You’re just ignoring it. His BB% is 10.5% this year, down from 13.5, 13.9, and 13.8 the last three seasons. His K% is 26.4%, down from last year’s 29.9%, but still well above his previous levels of 23.3% in ‘04 and 24.9% in ‘03. His ISO is .232, down from .276, .344, and .278 the last three years. His HR/FB rate is 18.9%, down from 29.4, 34.6, and 24.5% the last three years.
So, to sum it up, the three year trends are that he’s walking less, striking out more, and the ball isn’t traveling as far when he does make contact. I’m not sure what you want in a decline, but that’s pretty much the trifecta for a hitter right there.
As for sluggers after their 30th birthday, looking through the league HR leaders, we find Ortiz (almost 31), Soriano (30), Dye (32), Berkman (30), and Thome (36) all in the top 10. Of the next 11, 8 of them have seen their 30th birthday. Home run hitters in their 20’s are very rare. And while most of these guys are just over the 30 mark, There are enough (Dye, berkman, thome, delgado, thomas, giambi, ramirez) that are odler tham Richie that I don’t belive he can’t continue to hit right where he has been for the rest of this contract.
You haven’t done enough research on the subject, then. Sluggers decline in their 30s. It’s an indisputable fact.
Dave, its intriguing that you included half of the arbie guys in the figure to determine dollars to spend. You could get nearly as much money from not retaining and/or dealing Broussard, Perez, Mateo as you could by dealing one of the three names you mentioned.
10M$ from the three bit players
11-14M$ from one of the three “name” guys.
Aren’t BPM basically readily available parts through this system or filled easily from the ranks of the Free Agent class? They also have decent but not great value on the market.
Dave, its intriguing that you included half of the arbie guys in the figure to determine dollars to spend. You could get nearly as much money from not retaining and/or dealing Broussard, Perez, Mateo as you could by dealing one of the three names you mentioned.
Broussard, Perez, and Mateo next year should cost about $7 million combined. That’s half of what Sexson makes.
Aren’t BPM basically readily available parts through this system or filled easily from the ranks of the Free Agent class? They also have decent but not great value on the market.
Mateo, yea, he’s easily replaced. Broussard and Perez? No, I don’t think so. Despite his struggles here, Perez has been one of the best mashers of left-handed pitching in the game for the past few years. He’s had a rough few months, but I’m not willing to write him off based on the small sample we’ve seen in Seattle. $2 million for Perez is probably about what the market would bear. Wes Helms, a similarly skilled player coming off a better year, will probably get some kind of deal in that range, I’d imagine.
Broussard at $4 million is undervalued, relative to the free agent market. He’d be good for something like 3/18 as a free agent, I’d imagine. He’s a comparable talent to Jacque Jones, who got 3/15 last offseason.
And no, I don’t think the M’s have internal candidates who could be expected to replace the Broussard/Perez platoon and perform at an acceptable level. Clement might be ready to contribute towards the end of next year, and LaHair is a longshot possibility, but you don’t want to go into the season counting on either one.
All that said, depending on what other moves the M’s make, I’m not married to Benuardo, and I’d be okay with moving both in the right circumstance.
My bad, I would edit if I could. 7M$ not ten. I could quibble over dollar values or the 2M$ of Perez, but still the thrust of the story is sound. There are only three guys that have any potential at freeing up significant money on their own.
I am also in the Sexson camp. Boston, Detroit, and most of the NL would seem to make some sense.
My bad, I would edit if I could. 7M$ not ten. I could quibble over dollar values or the 2M$ of Perez, but still the thrust of the story is sound. There are only three guys that have any potential at freeing up significant money on their own.
He made $1.75 million this year, and the team holds an option for 2007, so it’s probably around $2 million. It’s pretty rare for a player’s contract to be frontloaded, so there’s little reason to think his ‘07 salary would be less than $1.75 million. It might be $1.8, it might be $2.2. So $2m is my best guess.
I am also in the Sexson camp. Boston, Detroit, and most of the NL would seem to make some sense.
San Francisco or Baltimore would be the two main candidates, I would think. San Francisco has Mike Matheny, Omar Viquel, and Randy Winn under contract for next year on offense. The rest of their line-up is free agent eligible. They’ve got a mountain of money, an obvious need for a power hitting first baseman, and have long been interested in Sexson.
#53: Why are ESPN’s park factors attrocious ad which source do you prefer?
59: Alright, so i decided to do some research. I figured, go look at the top 10 or so HR hitters of all time and see when their best seasons occured: Before or after the magical 30 mark.
The top 10 HR hitters of all time are:
Aaron
Bonds
Ruth
Mays
Sosa
Robinson
McGwire
Killebrew
Palmeiro
Jackson
Unfortunately, I don’t seem to have OPS numbers for all these guys, so I’m stuck with BA and HR
Aaron: 1971, at age 37, hit 47 HRs (career high) and hit .327 (career high was .328)
Bonds: I’m not even gonna bother. His best years all came after age 36, for some reason.
Ruth: 1927, at age 32, hit 60 hrs (career high) and batted .356 (career high was .393, only hit 41 Hrs that year)
Mays: 1965, at age 34, hit 52 HRs (career high) and batted .317 (career high was .347, but only 29 HRs that year)
Sosa: 2001, at age 32, hit 64 HRs (66 career high) and batted .328 (career high). Not his best HR season, but he did it in 66 less ABs
Robinson: 1966, turned 31 during the season, hit 49 HRs (career high) and batted .316 (career high .328, only 29 HRs that year)
McGwire: 1998 at age 34, hit 70 HRs (career high) and batted .299 (career high .312 for a full-ish season, hit 52 HRs that year at 32)
Killebrew: 1969, at age 33, hit 49 HRs (career high) and batted .276 (career high .288, 46 HRs that year, this is a close race)
Palmeiro: 1999, at age 34, hit 47 HRs (career high) and batted .324 (career high)
Jackson: 1980 at age 34, hit 41 HRs (career high 47) and batted .300 (career high).
So, I dont ahve the numbers for all hitters considered sluggers and how they did before and after 30, but these guys represent hitters from pretty mich every era of baseball, and all 10 of the top 10 seem to ahve had arguably their best season after turning 30.
Shrug.
So, Dave, important question:
You’re already in favor of a deal including Jake Woods. Can you package Woods and Sexson together, and what’s the likely return? Does that help the deal or hurt it? And is there anyone else you can use to sweeten the deal?
59: Alright, so i decided to do some research. I figured, go look at the top 10 or so HR hitters of all time and see when their best seasons occured:
Um, are you saying that Sexson is one of the top 10 HR of all time? Otherwise, aren’t you kinda cherry picking?
So, I dont ahve the numbers for all hitters considered sluggers and how they did before and after 30, but these guys represent hitters from pretty mich every era of baseball, and all 10 of the top 10 seem to ahve had arguably their best season after turning 30.
This isn’t analysis, and it’s certainly not applicable to Richie Sexson. Try reading this good starting article, this one on components, or or this one on selective sampling. Those will all be good for you.
You’re already in favor of a deal including Jake Woods. Can you package Woods and Sexson together, and what’s the likely return? Does that help the deal or hurt it? And is there anyone else you can use to sweeten the deal?
My offseason plan post is coming in the not too distant future, and that post will address these questions. This post is to help lay the groundwork for my thinking, so that you guys understand what I’m trying to do a little better.
I was listening to the Orioles vs Twins Friday night. The broadcasters were talking about Sexson and picking him up this season as a free agent. They were drooling about what an upgrade he would be.
Then one of their minions corrected them that he wan’t a free agent and had 2 years left. After some stumbling and pauses they said the Orioles should seriosly pursue him in the offseason trading some talent to get his bat.
#53: Why are ESPN’s park factors attrocious ad which source do you prefer?
Because their park factor formula is just screwy.
The best park factor formulas are three year running averages broken down by handedness, since most parks treat RH and LH batters differently. The Bill James Handbook publishes these every year.
Dave, do you think it’s possible for the M’s to deal both Jarrod Washburn and Richie Sexson to the San Francisco Giants — regardless of what is acquired in return for them — without having to pay for any of their remaining salaries?
The Giants, who’ll have a need for both starting pitching and a power-hitting first baseman during the upcoming off-season, should have the financial wherewithal to acquire both players.
For all of Washburn’s warts …. …. ….
No punchline. You assume that San Franscisco management is grossly more incompetent than M’s management. Further, in such a scenario, you are postulating that M’s management is capable of getting mucho for nada, when clearly we should be prepared for nada (or poquito) for muchisimo.
err….my point was that giving away bad contracts for nothing in return would be management at its best. NOT GONNA HAPPEN!!
let’s not overvalue Sexson or any of the other Mariners — with the perceived lack of pitching in both leagues, why would teams be throwing SP at the Mariners for Sexson or anyone else?
Richie is the logical choice simply because the M’s have no replacements available at 3rd base or CF. Ichiro is extremely valuable to the club if he continues to play CF, less valuable in RF. At CF he’s one of the top 3 players in the game and will continue to be valuable even as his offense slips as he ages.
The only way I trade Beltre is if we get back a legitimate starting 3rd baseman in return (no David Bells or Aaron Boones please). I also an intrigued by Morgan Ensberg or Cabrera manning the hot corner.
Trade Richie to an NL team like the Giants, He’ll get back to his 40HR level and both teams will be happy. Considering one of the primary reasons the M’s signed Richie was to convince other free agents that the M’s were players, trading him wouldn’t be a great loss.
I’ve been in favor of dealing Sexson for a while — pretty much since picking up Benuardo, actually — so all of this only confirms me in that conclusion. My hope is that Bavasi can play SF and the O’s (and maybe another team or two, if we get lucky) against each other and work the price up a bit. I’ll be interested to hear who you think we might be able to land — the O’s in particular have a lot of young arms. (The Giants have Merkin Valdez, I know, and they also have Eddy Martinez-Esteve, whom we should have signed, if Gillick hadn’t been so cheap . . . but that’s another story.)
Dave, do you think it’s possible for the M’s to deal both Jarrod Washburn and Richie Sexson to the San Francisco Giants — regardless of what is acquired in return for them — without having to pay for any of their remaining salaries?
The Giants actually don’t need a guy like Washburn. They have Lowry, Cain, Lincecum, and Sanchez all as effective, young, pre-arb. eligible rotation arms. If they were going to spend $9.5 million over three years on a pitcher, they’d just try to bring back Jason Schmidt.
The M’s, on the other, actually do need Washburn around, as much as I dislike the contract. They can’t fill four rotation holes this winter. That’s too much to ask. Considering his negligible trade value and the team’s need for a guy who can throw 200 innings, Washburn probably needs to be retained.
Dave-
You’ve already said several times here that M’s management will see that Raul will retire a Mariner. After the season he has had, one can imagine his stock is as high as its ever been. If you were calling the shots would you at least make Raul available?
I may be a pessimist, but i’m fairly confident that from here on out we will notice a decline in his skills (how rapid, i’m not sure). He is a pretty good bargin right now, so you are really not gaining much capital by moving him. We all know he’ll be with the organization til he retires, so this exercise is pretty meaningless. I was just curious what your thoughts were. Especially since a decline in both Sexson and Raul is inevitable, it would be pretty ugly if there was nobody to help pick up the slack whenever that happens.
Dave - Can I ask why Betancourt would go down in salary in ‘07? (From $677,500 to $450,000)
You’ve already said several times here that M’s management will see that Raul will retire a Mariner. After the season he has had, one can imagine his stock is as high as its ever been. If you were calling the shots would you at least make Raul available?
Honestly, if it was possible, I’d probably trade Ichiro and Ibanez. But I know its not possible, so I generally stay away from that kind of discussion. No Mariner GM is going to have the right to deal those players; not Bavasi, not Beane, not anyone.
Dave - Can I ask why Betancourt would go down in salary in ‘07? (From $677,500 to $450,000)
His salary this year was $350,000. The $677,500 is prorating his signing bonus of $1.3 million out over the four years of the contract. That number is the Annual Average Value number, while my salary numbers above attempt to reproduce the Actual Payout number, or what the players will actually cost the M’s in paychecks next season.
#81 - Ahhh, that makes sense, thanks Dave. My vote (FWIW) goes to getting rid of Sexson as well. My rationale is very similar to what has already been said.
We don’t have a genuine 3B prospect waiting in the wings (in the event of Beltre’s departure). Ichiro still has value to the team and value to the general public since he is the most recognizable player. Sexson can be replaced by the Benuardo platoon at 1B (Raul DH’s) or by Raul at 1B (and Benuardo DH’s). This would loosen up the logjam of OF’s that we have and perhaps we could go with Snelling in LF, Jones in CF, and Ichiro in RF. Or, replace Reed/cheap stopgap FA with Jones in CF if he’s not ready. Or, we could have Ichiro in CF, Snelling in LF or RF, and a cheap stopgap LF or RF until Jones is ready.
Actually - we do have a 3B prospect - Jose Lopez
But, do we have a 2nd base prospect if someone blew us away with an offer for Beltre?
Actually - we do have a 3B prospect - Jose Lopez
Agreed. But he has a ways to go to equal Beltre’s current output at the bat, and I’m not sure he’d equal him with the glove. We really WOULD have to be blown away, to make up for the weakenesses we’d be introducing with a proposed Beltre trade.
Don’t think that’s gonna happen…
And what logjam in the OF do we really have?
Snelling is a keeper. So is Ichiro - especially in CF. Ibanez should retire from LF, and should platoon at DH. We have the RH half the platoon already, so we need a legitimate LFer that is at LEAST equal to Sexson.
That means Morse, Bohn, Reed, etc. are not legitimate candidates.
Reed may be a keeper as a fourth OFer, but even at the top of his projection curve, he isn’t the bat this offense needs to replace someone like Richie. We don’t need any more stinking complimentary pieces.
I agree that we are better off with Beltre at 3rd and Lopez at 2nd. My point was strictly hypothetical and assumes a very nice return for Beltre - such as a big LF bat or a TOR starter. IMHO - that is what Beltre is worth. Although fans may underrate Beltre, I doubt that the league is entirely devoid of savvy GM’s ready to pounce on Beltre’s skill set….
My only fear, regarding Beltre, is that somehow this genius of a management group might underrate Beltre and sell him on the cheap. That would be a travesty, but I don’t think this fear is grounded in reality.
Whoever suggested batting Betancourt leadoff hasn’t looked at his OBP recently. We’d be better off batting Raul or Doyle at the top of the order.
I would like to see the team try really hard to move Washburn this offseason. Trading Washburn and Woods as a pair might work (basically the same pitcher, but only one of them costs money). Clearly trading Sexson is smarter than trading Beltre or Ichiro, but ideally I want to move Washburn to cut salary.
Evan: You want to move Washburn to cut salary? Why not keep Woods, then?
Are you saying the M’s should keep Meche instead of Washburn (assuming Washburn could be traded?)
For the money, I think that is an interesting argument.
Right now we have a lineup with 9 solid players (counting Perez and Broussard as 1) and some reasonable bench players, guys who are good as fill ins or prospects who need to develop. No matter who we trade, we create a hole. Sure we can (and would) shift players around to put the Sexson hole in the OF, but it’s still a hole.
But it’s a lot easier to fill a LF hole (see the post on Everett alternatives) — or live/hope with Jeremy Reed — than it is to fill a 3B hole.
Dave hinted that once we free up $14M, his plan is to add a second pitcher AND fill the hole on offense and that’s a great idea. But a lot of people seem to think we have a logjam and as JAS said right now we don’t given that Reed hasn’t shown he deserves a starting spot.
So from this thread it’s obvious the Mariners have to move salary and it’s obvious it won’t be Ichiro. Dave, do the Mariners understand this and how likely is it they get a deal done?
By the way, Richie turns 32 in December, not 31.
I wonder if the possibility of an Ichiro trade isn’t stronger than we may think. He’ll be 33 soon, 34 at the end of his contract in 2007, and I wouldn’t be surprised if talks on a contract extension didn’t start — and possibly conclude — this winter. Ichiro won’t want contract ambiguity hanging over his head during his walk year, I would imagine.
Part of me wonders how much Ichiro WANTS to come back to the Mariners, whether he’s going to want to squander his remaining few peak-production years on a team he may perceive isn’t headed in the right direction. I wonder if the Mariners may have to obscenely overpay him to keep his agent and the fans happy — and hamstring the team’s spending in other areas as a result. I wonder if between the M’s possible unwillingness to go to $15 to $20 million a year and Ichiro’s possible intransigence, talks might break down or fade away as the season starts. If that happens, I think one of two things will take place — the M’s cave and break the bank for Ichiro for the next 3-4 years, or they decide a deal just isn’t going to happen under any circumstances they can live with — and they abruptly deal Ichiro in midseason.
Seems to me the choice is between Beltre and Sexson, and even then there’s really no choice. The best bet is to trade the guy who is the most likely to be overvalued by your trade partner. No question that’s Richie. He hits HRs, he plays a non-premium position, has mediocre on-base skills, and he’s on the wrong side of the 30. GM’s love to pay too much for that kind of player. Beltre, on the other hand, doesn’t have gaudy HR totals, but derives his value instead from his relative youth and his extraordinary defense. That’s the guy you keep.
On somewhat of a related note, I pointed out during last year’s offseason that the Ms should have been considering trading Sexson then, in the Branch Rickey style. For what it’s worth (nothing), I was right.
Saying that some power hitters had very good seasons after age 30 doesn’t prove that power hitters don’t decline “in their 30’s”. A guy who peaks at 31 or 32 and then declines steadily is declining in his 30s. Sexson had his best year at 28, got hurt and didn’t play much at 29, came back with a good year at 30 and has declined at 31. Is that decline “spiraling”? I don’t even know what that means.
Your research is useless because (1) you cherry-picked guys who had long great careers and left out the many other hitters who started out great and fizzled in their 30s, and (2) you looked only at BA and HR totals, not at better numbers which would actually tell you the trajectory of a guy’s productiveness as a hitter. Even some hall of famers had precipitous declines in their early to mid 30’s (Foxx, Mantle, Gehrig to name a few you left off your list). How about George Bell, George Foster, Dale Murphy, etc. etc. etc.
If homerun hitters decline in their 20s then why did we sign Beltre through 2009? By the time his contract is up he’ll be 31. I think Dave some players are special circumstances such as Larry Walker who hit 26 homeruns well past his 30th birthday.
I agree with most on Richie. As much as I’d hate to see him depart, he seems the easy choice. However, I’ll throw out there that Beltre seemed to have issues with his hammy this year. And before he came to Seattle, didn’t he have some other recurring injury with his legs? Is he injury prone? Or does he have bad luck? Due to that, I would lean back towards Beltre. Richie had the shoulder issue, but that was about it…he’s played all year hasn’t he?
I’d move Sexson for whatever prospects we can get, and try to swap out Mateo for a better reliever as part of the deal.
If Ichiro stays in Center, and we use Benuardonez at 1B/DH, Snelling can play a corner and we would just need to fill Sexson’s lineup hole with a corner OF. Craig Wilson or Jose Guillen could do, with Wilson constantly undervalued (though he now may be regressing towards his perceived value as he ages, and his defense isn’t so hot), and Guillen probably no longer overvalued coming off of TJ surgery (and a better defensive option than Wilson). Or Aubrey Huff to take advantage of his average lefty bat, though he may be a bit overpriced. Huff would also give us an option at third if we want to move Beltre midseason, and can be used to spell Beltre from time to time, cutting into Bloomquists’ at bats.
If we have the cash, we could go after Torii Hunter, moving Ichiro back to right, but he might cost too much money at way too many years, and we would be blocking one of our best prospects. I suppose if we were to sign Hunter, and Jones pans out in the future, Jones could move to left and Snelling could replace Ibanez at DH.
Is Austin Kearns under contract with the Nat’s after this season?
#93 - Coach Owens,
The Mariners’ signings have nothing to do with how players age. It has been well established that in many respects the Mariner’s lack an understanding of player projections, and often sign people expecting them to repeat their best season ad infinitum. That the Mariner’s signed sluggers through their age 30+ season has no connection with whether sluggers decline in their 30s. Further, teams often have to add a year or years to a contract in order to get them to sign. The Red Sox gave Varitek a four year deal in order to get the 2 productive years they could realistically expect; the Mets did the same with Pedro.
As #92 said, picking the players who have had the most career home runs does nothing to disprove the known fact that sluggers generally decline in their thirties. The list you used necessarily is made up of players who continued to hit home runs in their thirties - it is the only way to amass that many HRs. The players to defy the decline phase will top the historical charts. But, as was said, this misses the thousands of players who faded out of the league in their thirties.
Yes, obviously, “some players are special circumstances.” The problem is, it’s impossible to predict with certainty which ones those are; thus it’s necessary to assume (with a few exceptions) that the player with whom one is dealing isn’t. That’s especially true with a player who is already in significant decline, as Richie is. Now’s the time to move the man, if the O’s or Giants will give us worthwhile return; I’m betting one or both will, and I just hope Bavasi makes and takes the best deal he can get.
#90– I wonder if between the M’s possible unwillingness to go to $15 to $20 million a year and Ichiro’s possible intransigence, talks might break down or fade away as the season starts.
where Ichiro is concerned, you also have to factor in Mr Yamauchi and what he want.
oops, the second half of my comment (#96) should be directed towards DarkKnight, not Coach Owens.
While we are on the subject of avoiding big money deals to declining players, I would argue that Jason Schmidt is an accident waiting to happen this off-season. His strikeout rate declined by about 1 per game each of the last two years. The SF beat writers tell me that he’s lost a little zip off his fastball, as well. His numbers look superficially good, but he’s starting to come in for a landing. I wouldn’t bet $40 million on that descent being protracted.
#79 and 96 - I was thinking the same thing re: Raul’s decline. The team will probably assume that he’ll continue to put up close to his 2006 stats from here on out rather than reverting to .280/20/80 or worse.
The sad thing is, it’s almost a foregone conclusion that once he becomes a mediocre/bad player, the team will continue to play him every day for months, months and more months. It’s the same thing we saw with other fan favorites like Olerud, Boone, Edgar, and Wilson. This isn’t exactly the most proactive organization we’re talking about.
definently richie… if you trade ichiro or beltre you just create another hole… You trade Sexson, Broussard can play 1st and we dont’ lose much
As another example of cherry picking hitters and relying solely on HRs, click on this link for a chart of HRs after age 32 by some notable power sluggers. IIRC, the guys on this chart are all players who hit at least 40 HR in their age 31 season.
Putting Sexson into the context of this chart does not augur well for Sexson. The HR output for the hitters on this chart who are most like Sexson - basically pure power hitters with lower BA and higher K rate, such as Buhner, Frank Howard, and Greg Vaughan - generally started plummeting right about Sexon’s age now. The only players who sustained high production into their mid- and late-30’s were all far better overall hitters than Sexson - Ruth, Bonds, Mays. And all of them were clearly declining in their early 30’s. (Bonds later career, of course, has a career trajectory that is totally unlike any other player in basball history. Hence, there is no point to attach any significance to Bonds’ post-35 career as a reference for any player.)
88, JAS - I don’t think Washburn is tradeable without bundling him, and I don’t think Woods is terribly good so I don’t mind losing him.
And I wouldn’t bring back Meche, either. Leaving those spots in the rotation empty allows for some nice bargain hunting.
Whoops. forgot to inster the hyperlink:
chart of HRs after age 32 by some notable power sluggers
Some hitters are special. They have very long careers, hit tonnes of homers and end up in the hall of fame. But as stunning as this may seem, Barry Bonds and Babe Ruth are statistical outliers, and not good indicators of what most players will do. Their success in their dotage is not an argument for stacking your team with guys who sport good power numbers and are moving into their 30s.
Just think of Aurelia, Spezio, Cirillo, the venerable 2004 Mariners.
Or, consider this. Identify the player(s) you want and see what package it would take to get there. For a team with 3 last place place finishes, why chose one guy and try to peddle him? Maybe he doesn’t fit with a teams that have what you need? Well then, who does? Trade him. I am not saying blow the team up or anything close, I just think it is limiting to protect anyone.
Dave - do you think there’s a reasonable chance that the M’s could actually lower the payroll next year?
Also we should expect Schmidt to post significantly worse numbers in the AL; it’s Bronson Arroyo in reverse. I’d be willing to take a chance on a rising young pitcher switching from the NL to the AL, but not a declining vetran (and that’s even before the relative salary differences).
In talking about replacements for Sexson…is there any chance the Royals would trade young Ryan Shealy? They just got him from the rockies at deadline-ish time. Kid is a big first baseman who can hit.
Dave: I knew the ESPN park factors weren’t particularly good but they’re all I can find online (I don’t believe the Bill James numbers are available anywhere electronically, are they?)
And Fox Sports says
Ugh!
At best, Baek and Woods should be competing for one spot along with a Paul Wilson or Sidney Ponson-type veteran
Right idea, wrong names. The guys we should be targeting in the FA market (note: that’s not Matsuzaka) are innings-eating veterans to supplement Washburn in the mid-rotation.
That being said…if you have a spare million or three to put into an incentive-laden deal, maybe a guy like Ponson is fine as a spring traing NRI to compete for a 5th starter spot ala Dave’s idea last year about Kevin Brown. Ponson’s FIP/xFIP numbers seem to indicate he might look better on a team that doesn’t have a craptastic defense.
I would like to see the team try really hard to move Washburn this offseason. Trading Washburn and Woods as a pair might work (basically the same pitcher, but only one of them costs money).
Um…
Washburn: 2.6 BB/G
Woods: 4.6 BB/G
One of these things is not like the other…
I know we all hate the idea of Washburn making $Texas, but he’s not replacement-level talent like Woods is, either. That being said, Woods is the more tradeable player because his salary impact is negligible, and he will have a perceived value that exceeds his real value due to a shiny ERA, whereas Washburn won’t.
And of the guys on Dave’s list, yeah, Sexson’s the one you’d want to target, I think.
Dave - do you think there’s a reasonable chance that the M’s could actually lower the payroll next year?
Yea. Attendance was way down this year, and it’s certainly possible that the M’s give Bavasi less money to spend in ‘07 than he had in ‘06. It’s absolutely the wrong time to be tightening the pursestrings, but it’s possible.
In talking about replacements for Sexson…is there any chance the Royals would trade young Ryan Shealy? They just got him from the rockies at deadline-ish time. Kid is a big first baseman who can hit.
We can do better.
Dave: I knew the ESPN park factors weren’t particularly good but they’re all I can find online (I don’t believe the Bill James numbers are available anywhere electronically, are they?)
Baseball-Reference has park factors for each team/year associated. Those are better than the ESPN numbers, even if they aren’t as good as you want for the kind of analysis you were trying to do.
In talking about replacements for Sexson…is there any chance the Royals would trade young Ryan Shealy? They just got him from the rockies at deadline-ish time. Kid is a big first baseman who can hit.
He’s 27. And that makes me wonder if this last couple of months has been a fluke.
Dave, do you think it’s possible for the M’s to deal both Jarrod Washburn and Richie Sexson to the San Francisco Giants
Why the obsession with dealing Sexson to the Giants? I mean, the Astros will need a SP once Clemens packs it in this fall, and putting Berkman in RF permanently would open 1B up to Sexson in a park where he can kill the ball.
And heck, we could get Mike Lamb back as a better-hitting Bloomquist.
He’s 27. And that makes me wonder if this last couple of months has been a fluke.
Well, he hasn’t even been that good, so probably not. He’s hitting .284/.343/.458 since being traded to KC with a 15/48 BB/K. And, as you mentioned, he’s 27-years-old. He had a great series against the M’s, but he’s nothing like a great player.
If Jake Woods is a litmus test for the Mariners, Ryan Shealy is a litmus test for people who try to evaluate minor league players. If you see someone tell you that Shealy is a fantastic player just waiting to get his shot, you pretty much can ignore anything else they say.
Sabean likes aging sluggers.
Though Sexson probably isn’t old enough to play in SF yet.
113. You mean a guy like Aaron Harang? He’s an older proven innings eater with a good ERA and very good control.
Harang isn’t a free agent, and he’s much better than an innings eater. The Reds know what they have, and they aren’t giving him away.
121. Where’s that list of free agents Dave?
Here.
Thanks Dave.
Dave, silly question, but in your plan what is your targeted result for the 2007 season? I am already operating under the assumption that you intend to build towards prolonged success of some measure, rather than a one year spike.
I agree with the majority here that Sexson is the better choice to trade. however, we should recognize the limits outside observers have in divining what the Mariners can do vis-à-vis trades this offseason.
The problem with trying to determine which player is most likely to be traded (or even the best choice for trading) is the lack of any information regarding other teams’ intentions or evaluations. Baseball trades, like all human action, are not completely rational decisions. Irrational factors – for the perspective of U.S.S.M. readers – can play a role in what happens.
Another team, for example, may covet Adrian Beltre so much that they are willing to give up what we would consider to be excessive compensation. Imagine if the Yankees were willing to give us A-Rod straight up for Beltre and compensate us for the difference in salary. Would Bavasi make that trade? Most probably. I don’t expect such an opportunity will present itself but Bavasi could not let that opportunity slip by if he could. Similarly, if the market for Sexson was minimal then maybe we have to keep the big guy and live with his contract.
From U.S.S.M. perspective, Bavasi may well make, or decline to make, moves that we all agree are necessary for improving the team. We will probably never know what deals are available to Bavasi. Let us all just hope that, if Bavasi can’t get genuine help for the team, he doesn’t compensate by signing money holes like C-Rex.
No question we could do better than Shealy. Heck, we could do better than Shealy just dealing with the Royals, and probably pay less — I’m no great fan of Justin Huber, but I still think he’d be a better option, and the Royals don’t seem to have him anywhere in their future plans. Might not be a bad pickup on the cheap for a bench bat / AAA depth.
121. What about Mike Mussina if the Yankees don’t sign him?
Coach, this isn’t a free agent speculation post.
Oh, and one other thing: The M’s are on pace to score 750-760 runs (which is close to what Derek projected waaaaay back before the season (I think he was guessing 775), despite:
- Safeco absolutely crucifying righties like it always has. This meant that three of the M’s best offensive players, Sexson, Beltre and Johjima, went from being .800-850 OPS players on the road to .725-775 OPS players at home. Ichiro and Ibanez somewhat compensated for this, but the team Really. Needs. To. Fix. This.
- the team getting absolutely BUPKUS from two lineup positions (DH+CF). Hard to believe this, but the Mariners got more out of CF in 2005 (.653 OPS) than 2006 (.627), and got a .666 OPS out of the DH…and that’s INCLUDING Ichiro’s time in CF (.694 OPS), and with Benuardo being worse than Everett (.620/.630 as opposed to .658). I find it hard to believe that this is going to continue in 2007, simply because I find it very hard to believe a CF of either Jones (if he shows any signs of readiness) or Ichiro, or whoever we bring in at DH will hit like WFB.
To sum up- we have a good likelihood of having the best offense in the division (park-adjusted) if we trade Sexson and sign a good FA to replace his bat, as Dave suggests. And the problem this year was the pitching- which was also what DMZ was suggesting could be at issue way back…
Kind of interesting, out of those “free agent” firstbaseman, if Sexson were added to the “available” list, he would easily be the best available first baseman. However, the most expensive depending on how much Seattle would pay on his contract to net a couple of decent prospects.
Dave,
I was wondering where you get your salary figures. I have found different figures on cots and mlb4u’s databases for these guys:
Beltre: you had him down for 13.5 million. All the information I have found says 11-12 million. His contract was backloaded.
Ichiro: you have 12.5 million. The other sources list 11 million. He has incentives, but that should come out of the M’s slush fund of incentives that they always tack onto the payroll.
The difference between those figures adds up to 3-4 million. Not huge, but not chump change either.
Second, I think that your estimates for Soriano and Putz in arbitration are probably the extreme worst case scenario. Guys like Brad Lidge, Joe Nathan, and Francisco Rodriguez - all of whom had been closing for a while before their first abritration year - got around 3.7 million. I would think that that would be the absolute max for a relief pitcher in his first year of arbitration. Putz may get close to that, but Soriano is a setup guy. Obviously, you want to keep those guys happy. And the M’s would be smart to try to resign one or both for a few years. But I would be suprised if the two of them get a total of 6.5 million. Based on what other guys have gotten, I would guess it would be a million less than that.
If the M’s are going into next season with a $90 million payroll, that would leave them with $16 mil to spend.
It will be interesting to see what Bavasi and the front office guys say after the final game of the season. It is possible that they could cut payroll. But while the attendance is down, it is still damn good for a team with three consecutive losing seasons. If I were a front office wank, I would take that as a good sign. If they are competative again, they should rebound quickly.
As you alluded to above, this is the wrong time to cut payroll. During their good years, the M’s were in the top-5 in payroll pretty consistently. But, given inflation and increased revenue, they are ranked around 11 now. Really, to maintain the status quo, they will need to add payroll to keep up.
The M’s roster turnover is pretty much complete. Now is the time to add payroll. Hopefully, Bavasi will come out and commit to keeping the club up near the other big-market clubs. If they just added $10 million to the payroll, it would be essentially getting back to where they used to be. That little extra bump would be a huge difference in what they can do this offseason.
Oh, by the way,
If I were deciding between moving Beltre, Sexson and Ichiro, I would trade Ichiro.
Obviously, it would be best to move Beltre’s contract. And Sexson’s salary is a major drain, especially for a player who plays the easiest defensive position on the diamond.
But there are two big reasons why Ichiro would be a better idea:
First, the M’s have pretty good options to replace him. Snelling could be a really good leadoff hitter. And giving Reed another shot in CF would be worth the risk. I still think that Reed could be an above average player. Plus, the M’s have Adam Jones waiting in the wings. If Reed continues to suck, he should be ready to actually contribute by late 2007.
Second, Ichiro has far more trade value than those other guys. By today’s standards, his contract is reasonable. Lots of veteran clubs would jump at the chance to get him. The Red Sox, White Sox, and Dodgers immediately come to mind. Instead of focusing on just moving a big salary, the M’s would actually be getting some real good players back. Trade Ichiro for one young player, one premium prospect, and a lower-level prospect, and not only do you have $11 million in payroll. You also have filled at least one area of need with a minimum contract guy.
With Sexson, the M’s would probably have to chose between getting an A prospect or moving the entire contract. With Beltre, they would have to eat a huge chunk of his money and/or take on another crap contract.
Everyone keeps saying that the club will never do that, and they are probably right. But it is the smart thing to do.
Player Projected 07 Vorp 2007 Salary
Richie Sexson 30.7 $14,000,000.00
Adrian Beltre 29.8 $13,500,000.00
Ichiro Suzuki 14.2 $12,530,000.00
Just using the three discussed and using BP’s projected VORP of 2007
Sexson 2.19 (Vorp/Million)
Beltre 2.21
Ichiro 1.13
Or using WARP
Sexson (4.7) .36 (WARP/Million)
Beltre (4.9) .36
Ichiro (3.2) .26
BP’s Projected Vorp & WARP are going to change after this season, But i think this isn’t too terrible of a starting point when thinking about smart roster moves.
Ichiro’s cool goes along way, If I were GM I would at least make a few phone calls to see who i could get excited.
#49: Ichiro generates enough revenue via Japanese tourists visiting Safeco to easily justify his salary. He is almost “free money” in that moving him would reduce team revenues by close to the same amount as his salary.
No