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Andriesen’s Plan
Cover your eyes, folks, becuase the first of the Suggested Offseason Moves columns has shown up in the P-I today. David Andriesen bats leadoff with his piece today. There will be more coming, surely.
For those who hate following the links, the key paragraphs:
The Nationals will try everything in their power to keep Soriano, and the suitors will be many. It’s estimated he’ll seek $75 million for five years. Give it to him. The Mariners made commitments of $64 million and $50 million, respectively, to Beltre and Sexson when both had major question marks — so how big a risk is $75 million to a five-time All-Star with no such question marks?
Soriano is going to do great things in the next five years, and there’s no reason it shouldn’t be here.
Egads. Paying $15 million per year for ages 31-35 of Alfonso Soriano’s career, then sticking him in Safeco Field, would be a monumental disaster. Since Andriesen likes to focus on things like home runs, RBI’s, and steals, we’ll add a slightly more useful column to the discussion.
Soriano’s OBPs, by year: .304, .332, .338, .324, .309, .355. Yes, just what a team that ranks dead last in MLB in unintentional walks and ahead of only Chicago and Tampa Bay in on-base percentage needs; another swing-at-anything hack whose RH power will be mostly neutralized by Safeco Field. Andriesen tries to downplay the effects of Safeco, since he’s hit well in RFK, but RFK isn’t Safeco. It’s a small sample size, but Soriano’s hit .190/.270/.304 at Safeco in 79 at-bats over the last three years, and it hasn’t been the Mariners tremendous pitching that has been shutting him down.
Soriano is a terrible, terrible idea. Thankfully, we don’t have to worry about it, because the M’s aren’t going to be players in that lottery ticket to hell.
Competition for Matsuzaka’s services will be fierce. The posting price could top $25 million — and that’s before negotiating a contract that should run about $10 million to $12 million a year for at least four years. It would be an extraordinary commitment, but by all accounts Matsuzaka is an extraordinary talent. If he pans out and Hernandez lives up to his potential, it could give the Mariners a phenomenal 1-2 punch for years to come.
At least he’s on board with the most obvious move of the offseason. I don’t know anyone who doesn’t want Daisuke Matsuzaka. It’s like asking kids if they want pie.
Thanks to their raft of young, cheap talent, the Mariners could bring my 25-man roster in at about $95 million. That’s not counting prorated signing bonuses nor money the team is eating on past bad contracts — something fans don’t like to let the team count as payroll, but money that must be paid just the same. And, of course, it doesn’t count the one-time payout to the Seibu Lions. But right about now, Seattle accountants must be keenly aware of the price of being a cellar dweller.
Andriesen’s right. His plan of shipping out Broussard and importing Soriano and Matsuzaka would add about $20 million to the team’s payroll, meaning that the 25 man roster would come in at just under $100 million. And the team still wouldn’t be good enough to win the World Series.
If this is David Andriesen’s dream, let’s all be thrilled we’re not living in it.
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you didn’t mention that we get Nick Rousso, Shane O’Neill & Jason A. Churchill’s wish lists as well!
Sorry, it was easy to overlook since they made it a PDF file. And, to be honest, besides Churchill’s plan (which he and I have talked about a lot the past few weeks), the rest of it isn’t really worth commenting on.
I had just finished reading the article (and the PDF) and thought I would meander over to see if you had commented on them yet. Sure enough you did.
Andriesen did a decent job in thinking about the off-season and tried to come up with a way to add more offense, but I can’t understand why he wants a free swinging RH hitter at Safeco? Unless they change the dimensions of the park it would be akin to giving Superman a kryptonite condom and sending him to the Bunny Ranch.
The others just made me cringe. What is up with the love affair with Carlos Lee? He is not going to be worth the contract he would dictate.
Dave, do you think the M’s are looking at any offense this offseason or is it going to be a strictly pitching oriented manhunt?
Dave, do you think the M’s are looking at any offense this offseason or is it going to be a strictly pitching oriented manhunt?
Bavasi would like to upgrade the offense too, but they’d have to find a good fit, both in the payroll and at a position, since the roster currently has a full offense. The likeliest scenario would be Broussard going away and Ibanez shifting to DH to make room for an LF, but they’re not going to be in the market for a big name hitter.
The bulk of the money is going to pitching.
I just heard Broussard on the 103.7 Mountain Music Lounge, apparently he has an album out and everything. (Proceeds go to charity.) He’s not bad, a bit basic, probably shouldn’t quit his day job. Why would we want to get rid of someone with such multi-versital talent?
Oh, wait, didn’t we already try the musician approach with Sand Frog? (how appropriate was that name, seeing as that’s about how well Spezio hit?)
I wonder if we could find a way to trade Sexson away for pitching. . .
Then that would clear some payroll room for Seung-Yeop Lee and get that 2nd starting pitcher we so desperately need besides Matsuzaka.
USS Mariner….
Great site. I love reading every day.
What about Vernon Wells? He is a RH bat, but do you see his numbers suffering in Safeco the same as Soriano?
Also, I am sure that you have seen it, but Andrew Miller has been called up and pitching for the Tigers. I don’t know what role he will fill in the post-season, but he is getting some innings in the big leagues this year.
(Rhetorical)Didn’t the M’s have a chance to draft this guy???? Sigh.
I’m just glad people are making time to even write these offseason dream rosters in the P-I when everybody is focused on Seahawks coverage, it’s kind of nice for us baseball fans. Although I like football too.
What i find ironic about these articles is that every year these same “sports writers” complain how MIN or OAK always out perform the M’s with a far cheaper budget. Yet everyone of these scenarios increases payroll, and really doesn’t improve the team much compared to what’s on the field today! (Except maybe the addition of Matsuzaka)
Also, I am sure that you have seen it, but Andrew Miller has been called up and pitching for the Tigers. I don’t know what role he will fill in the post-season, but he is getting some innings in the big leagues this year.
That was written into his contract, by the way. Not sure you can read much into that.
That’s because no one out there is as creative as Billy Beane, every fanbase thinks the best way to solve problems is just to throw money at it, but honestly that’s not the case.
You have to be creative sometimes in getting the right players.
That’s why I’ve suggested ideas such as trading Richie Sexson to get a #3 starting pitcher and then turning around and getting Seung-Yeop Lee.
[rosturbation]
Of those 4 possible rosters, at least Churchill’s is realistic. Rousso’s was just flat out awful. And what is this obsession with Carlos Lee, who wants an aging, sure to be overpriced slugger in the lineup.
and just a reminder that the .PDF lists are ‘If I ruled the world’ dream scenarios….
Frankly, I was mildly impressed with Andriessen’s attempt. Replacement-level even made its way into the prose. He may have whiffed on the particular player to chase for LF, but his roster construction theory still demonstrated that his heart is in the right place, even if his head screws it up a bit.
We all probably agree that Soriano’s strengths would be mitigated by Safeco’s dimensions, but I’d like to quibble with Dave on one point:
Say everything worked out just like Andriessen hopes. Not only do we get the superstar players, but they perform according to his expectations.
We have Felix and Matszu pitching like a pair of 1, 1’s. Soriano puts up MVP numbers.
Would we really be unable to contend for a WS title?
I expect Beltre, Lopez, Betancourt, Snelling, and Johjima all to improve. I expect Sexson to continue a mild, but un-catastrophic decline (yes I know, trading him is still a good idea). I also expect a fall-off from Ibanez. How much is anyone’s guess, but let’s assume it also isn’t catastrophic.
If we got anything out of the back of the rotation, and the bullpen gets even better (as it should), why couldn’t the M’s contend?
Ichiro being so consistent, I left him out of my mini-assessment.
Like Jason suggests, I see an ex-Angel or two coming our way in 2007…whether its Edmonds, Erstad, Kennedy, Anderson or even Salmon out of retirement…none of which excite me.
#11, I couldn’t agree more. The M’s 3 year cellar run is not due to how much they spend on payroll, it’s due to the personnel decisions that they make. And overpaying for right handed sluggers just ain’t the way to go in case they haven’t figured that out yet.
#4: Bavasi would like to upgrade the offense too, but they’d have to find a good fit, both in the payroll and at a position, since the roster currently has a full offense. The likeliest scenario would be Broussard going away and Ibanez shifting to DH to make room for an LF, but they’re not going to be in the market for a big name hitter.
Would moving in the left-field fence count as an offensive upgrade?
Can anyone tell me why Ichiro is considered aging and Gary Matthews Jr is considered to be in his prime?
An “MVP season” from Soriano is worth less than an MVP season from almost anyone else. I can’t think of another player whose virtues are so completely tied up in a few glamor statistics. This year, for example, a year in which Soriano is one of the most discussed players in the game and which is expected to be a big payoff year for him because he’s had such a great season — this year, this great year, Soriano is twenty-sixth in baseball in Value Over Replacement Player, and thirty-fourth in Equivalent Average (tied with Juan Rivera). And that’s without taking his defense into account, which I think would not help his case (though I don’t know what the defensive metrics say about him as an outfielder).
Not that Soriano is a bad player — he’s a good player, of course. But he’s about to be the most overpaid position player in the game, even if he plays in a park that’s good for him.
Can’t disagree with scrap’s assessment of Soriano. My point was more about whether the M’s could contend even if Soriano was able to continue his production.
Moving in the LF fences has been discussed, and would be a very good way of maximizing our existing high-priced talent.
If the price for Edmonds wasn’t too high I could get behind that. We’re certainly into his decline phase but I don’t think that means that he won’t bounce back a bit next year since this year was so injury ridden, all his problems with his concussion, etc. It would make it easier to move Sexson and feel secure, IMO.
On the other hand, he does seem like the kind of player who could be immediately become a guy a team like the Mariners wants to keep around for a long time, so it could have other dangers beyond immediate performance.
It’s good to have something to talk about the day after the M’s successfully completed their 2006 playoff plan (that is, being whipping boys for the A’s to keep the Angels out).
The Soriano thing is an obvious fault. Other observations from the 4 lists:
Matsuzaka is unanumpous across the board. I hope the front office and Hamauchi-san decide that they REALLY need to sign DM to sell tickets for next year, especially season packages.
Trade Ichiro, Rousso says? Dream on. Ditching Sexson is fine with me, though.
O’Neill likes James Loney, who, as a lefty, is a lot more interesting to me than any of the possible RH bats anyone mentions. But he says (as I read it) that we should get him from the Dodgers by trading Sexson, but is there a guy named Nomar playing 1B in LA? He also suggests resigning Meche.
Conspicuously absent from any of the lineups: Jeremy Reed. Noted as also absent from any of the rotations: Jamie Moyer.
Nomar was on a one-year deal. The Dodgers don’t have a lock on him next year.
BTW, here’s the list of free agents.
One thing I totally agreed with Andriessen on — I’m totally down with the M’s offering $.25 tickets and free unlimited nachos. That’d lure me into becoming a season ticket holder.
I’m not sure I’d give Mark Redmond or A.J. Pierzynski a lifetime contract, though. Even if it was only for $1.
I’m totally down with the M’s offering $.25 tickets and free unlimited nachos
If there were free unlimited nachos, I’d even pay 75 cents for tickets. mmmmmm cheese-resembling goop.
Would it be bad to make a Ryan Howard joke here?
I’m totally on board with avoiding Soriano though.
25, thanks. I just did a little reading about the Dodgers, Nomar and Loney. I don’t think they’d trade Loney for Sexson.
Haha! I guess the PI doesn’t know that insidethepark.com is so 2005. Geez…
19- Would moving in the left-field fence count as an offensive upgrade?
Absolutely! But it would also count as a downgrade to our pitching staff. This point seems to get ignored sometimes when talking about adjusting the dimensions at Safeco.
I don’t think anyone forgets or ignores this. The fact that it would hurt our pitchers doesn’t mean that it would hurt our pitchers as much as it would help our hitters. It happens that a few of our most important hitters are badly hurt by the park, and it’s likely — not certain, but likely — that the improvement in their fortunes would be a substantially greater effect than the damage it might do to some of our pitchers.
Absolutely! But it would also count as a downgrade to our pitching staff. This point seems to get ignored sometimes when talking about adjusting the dimensions at Safeco.
We’re going to have to make this part of the FAQ or something. No one is asking for them to just move the fences in and make it more hitter friendly. We’re asking them to adjust to move the LF fence in, the RF fence out, and adjust the park (potentially adding a bit more foul territory down the lines) to make it detrimental to LH and RH, rather than having it be a demonstrably favorable park for LH hitters and death to RH hitters.
We’re not ignroing the effects on the pitching staff. We understand the issue. The fact that people misinterpret the discussion as “move the fences in”, well, I don’t know how to help that, because we’ve explained this thing a hundred times.
Alfonso Soriano? Gary Matthews, Jr? Brian Roberts? Yuuuuuuuuurrrrgggh.
I’m not even really down with Jim Edmonds, even. His stats have “DECLINE PHASE” stamped all over them in big red letters. He strikes me as VERY likely to turn into Bernie Williams. a .260/.330/.440 hitter- and to be blunt, Benuardo should be able to beat that. Just say no.
I’m not even really down with Jim Edmonds, even. His stats have “DECLINE PHASE” stamped all over them in big red letters. He strikes me as VERY likely to turn into Bernie Williams. a .260/.330/.440 hitter- and to be blunt, Benuardo should be able to beat that. Just say no.
Take a look at his splits. His numbers vs RHP are basically as good as always. He’s just been completely useless against lefties this year. If that’s a real decline (and it very well could be), than his overall decline could be masked with an easy platoon.
The one thing that I find interesting is the near 100% consensus that Matsuzaka is the way forward.
I couldn’t agree more.
But the bidding for him will be nuts. For the M’s, I think that he is a complete necessity. If the M’s don’t land him, they will have a tough time fixing the club this offseason. This is one of those rare years where one player is the difference between success and failure.
Really, what are the alternatives?
We’re asking them to adjust to move the LF fence in, the RF fence out, and adjust the park to make it detrimental to LH and RH, rather than having it be a demonstrably favorable park for LH hitters and death to RH hitters.
Or, to put it another way, make Safeco more like Dodger Stadium, and less like old Yankee Stadium (with 450 foot Death Valley all the way out to the monuments in LCF, and cheap HRs into RF). Joe DiMaggio was actually a BETTER power hitter than Ted Williams in neutral parks- but you can’t see it in the stats because of Yankee Stadium and Fenway Park.
If the Mariners were like the old Yankees and had a pipeline of LHB they could always throw out there, a highly asymmetrical park might make sense, but they’ve got the majority of their offensive talent as RHB- and they’ve been hosing themselves offensively for a while now.
I wonder if Edmonds would be ready to accept a platoon, though.
So what happens to eveyone’s offseason plans if the Mariners fail to get Matsuzaka?
Is not getting him a death warrant for our playoff hopes next year?
We’re not ignroing the effects on the pitching staff. We understand the issue. The fact that people misinterpret the discussion as “move the fences in”, well, I don’t know how to help that, because we’ve explained this thing a hundred times.
Because people all too often treat it like a binary issue. A move either helps pitchers, or it hurts them. No in-between.
Yeah, a change could hurt the pitchers as well as help our batters. But the possibility that it could help our hitters MORE than it hurts our pitchers seems beyond some folks.
RE Edmonds,
I think that he would be a fantastic addition. If he agreed to play LF, he helps us on defense as well as providing exactly what the offense needs most: lefthanded power and ability to get on base.
I think that a huge part of his statistical decline is due to injuries, particularly at the beginning of the year. It seems like most of his problems have been things like sprains, a problem with a tendon in his foot, and an oblique injury. Now, he has post-consussion problems. But after struggling with those injuries early in the season, he has been putting up his normally excellent numbers: .267/.353/.571 since the break. He hasn’t shown any tendency towards slow starts in the past three, so this seems like an aberration for him.
Even if he is in decline, he could be a great addition for a few seasons.
If the Mariners were like the old Yankees and had a pipeline of LHB they could always throw out there, a highly asymmetrical park might make sense, but they’ve got the majority of their offensive talent as RHB- and they’ve been hosing themselves offensively for a while now.
As a long term strategy, people always want to tailor the team to the park. But I wonder if this is a wise plan…or, at least, it can be a trap when you over-customize a team, as you still have to play nearly half your games (regular season and playoff games) elsewhere, and leaves you somewhat vulnerable to the appropriately handed players.
I don’t see the benefit in making the park less unusual.
With a highly unusual park, you can tailor your team to it and create a genuine advantage. It just so happens, however, that the hitters aided by Safeco happen to be rare and expensive.
34 - We’re not ignroing the effects on the pitching staff. We understand the issue. The fact that people misinterpret the discussion as “move the fences in”, well, I don’t know how to help that, because we’ve explained this thing a hundred times.
I actually have read and do understand your side of that and wasn’t commenting on your specific plan at all. There are comments posted here everyday which specifically talk about moving the left field fences in which in itself is not neccessarily going to help the team.
Incidentally, the “Practically Perfect Backup Catcher” is a free agent.
He’s just been completely useless against lefties this year. If that’s a real decline (and it very well could be), than his overall decline could be masked with an easy platoon.
OK, that’s possible. I suppose you could do some kind of platoon there. Of course, Rauuuuuuul is also starting to look vulnerable to LHP again, so now you need a platoon option for him, too. So that’s two RH OF…
I’m just not sold on loading up on players like Cruz and Edmonds while Sexson’s looking a bit like he might hit a decline phase, too, and Ibañez had a career year and might be ripe for a fallback. It would be one thing if this was a team in the middle of contention, but I’m real reluctant to start loading up on veterans on a team that isn’t even .500 yet.
of course Jim Edmonds did say last time he was heading into free agency that he might quit rather than play in Seattle ….
I think that a huge part of his statistical decline is due to injuries, particularly at the beginning of the year.
Which is part of the decline phase, yeah.
Even if he is in decline, he could be a great addition for a few seasons.
I guess you have a different standard for Jim Edmonds than you do for Ichiro?
f course Jim Edmonds did say last time he was heading into free agency that he might quit rather than play in Seattle ….
Good point, msb. I’ve been very curious myself where all this talk of Jim Edmonds comes from — in light of his very public voicing of having absolutely no desire to ever play in Seattle. Maybe his relationship with Bavasi changes things a little, but I’ve always heard that exact sentiment out of him…
So what happens to eveyone’s offseason plans if the Mariners fail to get Matsuzaka?
Is not getting him a death warrant for our playoff hopes next year?
This is the question of the offseason. While everyone seems to believe that a)Dice-K will be posted and b)Seattle will get him, there’s still enough possibility that either one won’t happen. “Then what…” is really what it’s all about here. I’m nowhere near convinced that the M’s have all-but locked up The Dice.
41- Yeah, a change could hurt the pitchers as well as help our batters. But the possibility that it could help our hitters MORE than it hurts our pitchers seems beyond some folks.
I completely agree. But until we actually do it, we don’t know what that delta will actually be. I’m just not optimistic that the benfits will be as dramatic as some people imply.
While the M’s may not be a prohibitive favourite to win Matsuzaka’s posting, I think they do have to be considered the favourites.
If someone other than Seattle or the Yankees win I’d be really surprised, and I really don’t want the Yankees to win.
Some GM is going to give Edmonds a 3 year deal…and in IMO, that should not be the M’s, for many of the same reasons that Eponymous Coward states above.
Given the current ballpark dimensions and his ability to get lefties out, I believe the M’s should be as big a player in the Willis bidding, as they plan to be in the Matsuzaka sweepstakes.
I think the only way Soriano would be a good fit would be if we traded Ichiro… but you know what no he would still be a horrible fit.
Some GM is going to give Edmonds a 3 year deal…and in IMO, that should not be the M’s, for many of the same reasons that Eponymous Coward states above.
The Cardinals hold a team option for 2007 on Edmonds. If you only want him for one year, you trade for him.
Those comments are generally mindful of all the preceding conversation on this issue. Especially if they talk specifically of moving in the left-field fences, it is likely to be because they remember the arguments for why it would probably help our hitters more than it would hurt our pitchers.
There’s no reason to assume that the issue is being ignored by people just because they don’t go out of their way to say “and yes, we’ve thought about the pitchers, too” every time we talk about it. It’s likelier that people are commenting under the assumption that we all remember the previous conversations.
Given the current ballpark dimensions and his ability to get lefties out, I believe the M’s should be as big a player in the Willis bidding, as they plan to be in the Matsuzaka sweepstakes.
Dontrelle Willis, the new Steve Avery. He’ll be out of baseball in four years.
He certainly has the workload of a short-career pitcher. 530 IP in 2 seasons?
not to mention the NY papers have decided he’s a NY pitcher already
***but they’re not going to be in the market for a big name hitter.*****
Assuming Sexson has a good chance to be moved, are you suggesting that if there was a subsequent chance to replace the homers by getting *left-handed sock* in a trade (even if he was a big, dumb, and slow ex-quarterback with no glove), the M’s would pass?
I’m telling you guys, the Mariners should sign Mike Mussina to a 1 year contract.
I have to say that in reviewing the PDF that Rousso has set a new standard for rosterbation. All we’re missing is “trade Felix to Twins for Johan and Liriano.”
I wonder if Edmonds would be ready to accept a platoon, though.
I think he’d accept a recovery from post-concussion syndrome first. He’s still on a “no-fly” restriction from the doctors, and it doesn’t look like he’ll come off of it soon. It’s something that he’s playing again, but still.
I completely agree. But until we actually do it, we don’t know what that delta will actually be. I’m just not optimistic that the benfits will be as dramatic as some people imply.
This year I’ve seen three Beltre doubles that would have been homers if that 385 sign in LF were moved in 5-10 feet. And that’s before you think about the half a dozen flyouts to that area. All told, I think that corner has robbed as many as 6 HRs from Beltre this year.
That corner punishes right-handed power alley hitters like Beltre. It doesn’t hurt guys who hit 400 foot shots when they hit HRs (e.g. Sexson), but guys like Beltre that hit line shots it does.
The free agent list has some interesting names of pitchers approaching the end of their career, who might be an alternative not requiring too long commitments if Matsusaka doesn’t come. Mussina (xFIP 3.85) is one of them, another one is Smoltz (xFIP 3.58).
Now who’s that ex-quarterback, terry? (not a rhetoric question, I have no idea. It can’t be Mo Vaughn)
Would anybody be interested in Ted Lilly as a third/fourth starter? Seems like we need another arm even if we do get Matsuzaka.
Mussina (aside from being a die-hard NE guy) has a 2007 option that the Yanks are believed to be picking up, and perhaps extending.
Dontrelle Willis, the new Steve Avery. He’ll be out of baseball in four years.
Steve Avery lasted for seven years before he couldn’t pitch (and still resurfaced years later with the Tigers). Dontrelle may not be top-shelf after his rotator cuff explodes next year, but he’s a left-hander, just like Avery, so he’ll keep resurfacing in someone’s bullpen.
Never forget the left hander’s bonus — 25% higher salary, 25% longer career expectancy, 25% greater chance some manager is going to wreck your arm.
Mussina (xFIP 3.85) is one of them, another one is Smoltz (xFIP 3.58).
If I were placing bets, I’d bet on NYY to buyout Mussina’s 17m 2007 option ($1.5m) and sign a new deal for a few more years.
I’d also bet that Atlanta exercises Smoltz’ $8m 2007 option, because a href=”http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/atlanta-braves_15.html”>this says they did it already.
#68: Darn. That’s not a link. Well, anyway, you get the point.
Lilly would be a good fit in Safeco. He’s yet another lefty flyball pitcher, but he has good control and a decent K rate.
Though, he is prone to punching his manager in the mouth.
If Hargrove returns, I’ve gotta say — is that really a drawback?
Of course in the event the manager stays the same, we wouldn’t mind Lilly punching him…
Two brilliant minds think alike…
[Rimshot]
Yep, if Hargrove stays, Lilly becomes target number 1.
Imagine the spin Rizzs would put on that.
Rizzs: Well Ron, it looks as though Hargrove had a huge horsefly on his face, and Lilly nice guy that he is, went ahead and smashed it for him giving him a bloody nose in the process.
Fairly (of course not here): Did I tell you about the time when the catcher and pitcher got in a fight and came out all bloody?
Rizzs: Well yes, Ron, 10 times, but do tell again.
Lilly’s control is not very good. His K/BB rates the last three years are:
7.7/4.1
6.5/3.9
7.5/4.0
He’s Gil Meche, with Lilly’s lower Ground Ball % (37.4%) canceling out his left-handedness.
70 A lefty I think is worth talking about is Pettitte…
Anybody willing to give Randy Wolf or Mark Mulder a shot?
Mulder just had surgery on his rotator cuff. No, thanks.
#77– why? if he does pitch next year, it’ll only be in Houston…
58 - Dontrelle Willis, the new Steve Avery. He’ll be out of baseball in four years.
That’s an interesting comment. Do you feel the same way about Carlos Zambrano? If not, what’s the difference?
re Mulder
Whoops, OK scratch that, I was thinking he was coming back from surgery, not just had surgery.
Isn’t Wolf getting close to being ready?
I’m just kinda throwing LHP names out there that may be cheap.
#64: Cough, Dunn, cough, cough…..
That’s an interesting comment. Do you feel the same way about Carlos Zambrano? If not, what’s the difference?
Jack, if you want to emphasize someone else’s comments to set it apart from your own, set it off with em and /em tags within brackets. There’s an example at the bottom of the screen.
And Zambrano has a significantly better body type for his workloads than Willis does. He’s also a strikeout pitcher, so he accord to lose some stuff and still be effective. Once Dontrelle’s fastball goes, he’s a meatball machine. And I’d estimate his fastball is gone in about two years.
I’ll take Dunn if you’ll tell me how to get him…Ichiro did want to play RF next to Griffey, but otherwise?
[blah blah blah]
Six year contract? I doubt it.
AK where’s that info coming from?
He has no idea.
I’m curious to why Matszuaka’s salary would be so high. Once the team wins the posting battle he has no leverage in contract negotiations. I’d expect him to get something along the lines of 3/$24-$30 at best. Japanese pitchers don’t have a huge success history in the majors, and no japanese player has gotten an outrageous contract to start.
$15 million garanteed for a season,6 years down the road, from a pitcher who has not even thrown a warmup pitch in the MLB>?
arbeck…was wondering the same thing. Ichiro signed for much less in the same process, but for one Ichiro’s success is part of the answer. Ichiro didn’t have Boras as his agent.
Re. #88 & 89:
I used the qualifier “approximately” to indicate that my estimations are just speculation.
But what leverage does Boras have? Is he willing to have the Matszuaka sit out a whole year? I don’t understand the posting process enough to know what happens in that case.
I would think that the proper strategy for Boras to attempt would be to sign a good 2-3 year contract and gamble that he scores big in free agency a few years later just like Matsui and Ichiro did.
41- Yeah, a change could hurt the pitchers as well as help our batters. But the possibility that it could help our hitters MORE than it hurts our pitchers seems beyond some folks.
I completely agree. But until we actually do it, we don’t know what that delta will actually be.
We’re not looking at hit charts? I’da thought it’d give you some idea…
The franchise that acquires the rights to sign Daisuke Matsuzaka will have him under club control for six seasons; thus, I believe that it would be in the best interest in both the player and the organization to agree to a six-year contract.
re 90
I think the posting fee itself will be high enough in this case that it will count as leverage for Matsuzaka. I have no idea what it could be, but 25mil is the number everyone is throwing around. I imagine that any team would want those 25 million to result in something other than failed negotiations, whether they come out of the payroll or not. Yeah, the guy wants to play in the majors, but if he’s not getting what he wants, he could just play in Japan another year and try again the next.
The franchise that acquires the rights to sign Daisuke Matsuzaka will have him under club control for six seasons; thus, I believe that it would be in the best interest in both the player and the organization to agree to a six-year contract.
The Mariners control the rights to Adam Jones for the next 6 years, too. Do you want to give him a 6 year deal?
The best idea, from the team’s perspective, is a 3 year deal that doesn’t grant him free agency at the end of the contract. Basically, the same deal Ichiro signed, just for more money. Boras will almost certainly fight for free agency as soon as he can, though, so that issue - not the yearly salary - will be the huge point of negotiations.
It’s up to the club whether they’re willing to grant free agency before the end of the six years of club control in a contract. The M’s did it for Johjima and Sasaki, the Yankees did it for Matsui, but the M’s didn’t do it for Ichiro. We’ll just have to see, I guess.
I’d like Jeff Supan. GB pitcher good ERA, not bad control.
#96
How about that Kaz Matsui deal….Six years would of been great!
I imagine that any team would want those 25 million to result in something other than failed negotiations…
The posting fee is only paid if the team agrees to a contract. If they don’t, the team keeps the money, and Matsuzaka plays next year in Japan.
DM could remain with his present club for one more season and be a Free Agent at the end of 2007. That’s the leverage Boras has in this situation. If you can’t come to terms with them in the time alotted he might just wait one more year (now that he’s waited, what 3?)
But then the Japanese team loses the posting money, so they clearly want to post him now I would think, and with a weak FA pitching market once again…
Clearly Matsuzaka would be in better position next year regardless of the FA class. The sources I’ve heard say that he doesn’t want to wait, but Boras will play that card.
jp I’m not saying they don’t post him but the ’sealed’ bid winner then negotiates with the player and his team is no longer involved. They would have no say as to whether he signed a contract or not. Yes if he leaves as a FA they’ll get nothing. It would serve them right for not posting him either of the last 2 years.
For those that do not understand the posting process:
In ye olde archives is a valuable description of it (as written by Derek)
Posting Process
#101– which also is the answer #94 was looking for ….
It wasn’t the worst article ever written, just an “anyone not an idiot” (oh, except for the first third about Soriano, of course) space filler.
I believe I have read perhaps six more sensible, and better written, articles about what the Mariners’ plans for 2007 should be, just on the few decent fan blogs.
Sportswriters? Bah! Humbugs!
On Daisuke M.: be careful! The Seibu Lions management seem to have crafty, but have also shown outright crazy tendancies. They especially have some almost feudal notion about their ownership of Matsuzaka, who is the team symbol after all. They may refuse to post him because they are not legally bound to, even given the certainty of losing him the following year without compensation. They might also simply demand a posting fee they believe higher than any MLB team would be likely to offer.
I would also suggest the Mariners look over the Tiger’s Kei Igawa, who also wants a shot at MLB, may demand and recieve posting due to his unhappiness at being turned down last year, and being a quality starter (likely a strong #3) who could be signed at a very reasonable price.
Koji Uehara is also a real possibility, having had a mediocre year with a terrible Giants team. He also is a year away from free agency.
pinball1973 / Deanna / anyone else…
What do you know about Hiroki Kuroda and Hirotoshi Ishii? I have a friend from Japan who says they may also want to come over…
Mmmm… pie.
Edmonds won’t play anywhere but center as long as he can physically man the position. If you look at his splits you’ll see that over the past two he’s actually hit left handers better than right handers, so maybe this year’s slip is an anomaly. The Cardinals would have to be monumentally stupid to let him slip away, especially after watching Juan Encarnacion/Preston Wilson flop around the outfield for the past month.
So yeah, sign Edmonds if he’s available. you won’t regret it.
Assuming Soriano replicates his career year for the next five years in a row, he is worth every penny.
On Daisuke M.: be careful! The Seibu Lions management seem to have crafty, but have also shown outright crazy tendancies. They especially have some almost feudal notion about their ownership of Matsuzaka, who is the team symbol after all. They may refuse to post him because they are not legally bound to, even given the certainty of losing him the following year without compensation.
Too bad the “retirement” loophole has been closed in NPB. I could see Matsuzaka totally doing that.
Buck Martinez was just talking about Pat Gillick on Wednesday Night Baseball. “Pat Gillick was the last GM to win in Toronto, Baltimore and Seattle.” He didn’t mean it as a back-handed compliment but it should make him wonder…I doubt he does though.
Assuming Soriano replicates his career year for the next five years in a row, he is worth every penny.
I assume this is tongue-in-cheek, i.e. you know he won’t, but the sad think is some GM will pay him like he will. Well, not quite $18-20M an 8-9 WARP player is worth, but he’s going to need to defy the aging curve AND (and this is the less likely part for me) turn out that his “true talent level” is the 9 WARP player he was this year not the 4 WARP he’d been the previous two seasons.
At least Soriano has actually been VERY GOOD this year, unlike Carlos Lee who’s simply an average LF and is asking for the same $15M.
We’re asking them to adjust to move the LF fence in, the RF fence out, and adjust the park (potentially adding a bit more foul territory down the lines) to make it detrimental to LH and RH.
This is well up the thread but I’ve been wonder how feasible this is for a while. From a practical standpoint, how would you actually do this? You couldn’t just move the left field fence in and leave a 10-ft gap between the seats/bullpens and the fence, could you? Would you move home plate 10 feet toward where 3B is now and live with foul territory being lopsided and the “best seats in the house” all being further from the action?
I know teams have done this so it must be possible, but what’s the approach that’s asthetic, cost effective, and doesn’t negatively impace the quality of seating along 1B and RF? You do have to move home plate to create more foul ground, right?
Thanks!
116. Usually when you’re doing this you remove seats from where you extending a playing surface. Then you move those seats you removed from before and put them into the area where you’re moving the fence in so you probably don’t move homeplate or any other bases also you can keep the same amount of seats. Well that’s how I’d do it.
Moving home plate would be a nightmare…
Moving home plate would be a nightmare…
They did it in the Kingdome.
Leaving a gap between the old and new fences has been done - I believe KC did it. Safeco has the bullpens in left, so it wouldn’t be bad there, and I’d think they could extend the landing in the LC alley if they wanted to. RF would be more challenging depending upon the construction method it was built with originally.
All that said, I say leave it all as-is. Too many people forget one simple fact: the opponents get to use the same fences that we do. A few more homers for Beltre equate to a passel more for a bunch of our opponents. I think we do better molding a team with left handed power than accomodating the right handers that we have.
I’m sure they have a plan in-hand, even if they have never moved on it; it is a subject that arose even before they moved in….
120. Yeah but each of our opponents don’t play 81 games at Safeco every single year.
We’ve had the fences discussion before, can we please stop rerunning it here? Thanks.
I’d love it if people could actually understand the argument. If I see the “it won’t help, other teams play here too” response one more time, I’m going to throw something.
It’s. about. roster. construction. possibilities.
It’s not an attempt to gain an in-game advantage. It’s about not limiting ourselves to some much smaller subset of possible acquisitions because our home park is so ridiculously tough on the majority of major league hitters.
[goodbye]
It. seems. so. simple. when. you. put. it. that. way.
Seriously, its curious that something most assume is an advantage (home park) could be something that chronically decreases your ability to compete….
It’s a bit unintuitive but mostly its just maddening that it isn’t corrected.
I’ve got the under on #125 being deleted….
127. Yep.
You won’t be seeing posts from that guy anymore.
Moving The Fences In (See # 34 and others)- Does anyone remember SAFECO’s first brochure, the one that trumpeted how exciting the triple was?
Well, they forgot to sign triple-hitters.
Another Strike Against HARGROVE - If you have your choice of going after a good left-handed hitter (Delgado), or a good right-handed hitter (Sexson), given SAFECO’s dimensions, isn’t it obvious which one you’d choose? Not to everyone.
The Mariners preferred Delgado to Sexson. Delgado just wouldn’t sign the M’s offer. Sexson was the backup plan.
The M’s didn’t choose Sexson over Delgado.
Um, for those of us who are naive, can we get a brief explanation again of how tailoring your roster to your (peculiar) home park is a bad thing?
I mean, let’s say that you assemble a roster that wins 70% of its home games. That team only has to win 30% of its road games (plus one game) to have a winning season. Fans at home go home happy a lot. And sometimes all you have to be is good at home — see the 1987 and 1991 Minnesota Twins. If memory serves, both teams won every postseason home game, lost every postseason road game, and took home big trophies at the end of October.
Nobody’s arguing that tailoring your roster to your home park is necessarily bad. The issue is that Safeco is configured in a way which makes putting together a roster that *can* take advantage both difficult and expensive.
Nobody’s arguing that tailoring your roster to your home park is necessarily bad.
Actually, I was questioning that–because I was wondering if you built an extreme park where you win 70% of your games, will you be able to win outside of it? It’s all seemed conventional wisdom-like, and conventional wisdom should either be challeneged or supported by data.
Are there any other teams like the Minnesota Twins that relied on their home park as much? Because their example isn’t worth quite that much if they are the only team who took advantage of their home part like that.
It’s pretty simple, really.
Safeco is built to heavily penalize right handed hitters.
Most hitters (and most people) are right handed.
This means that your options to put together a roster that isn’t overly penalized by Safeco are limited, and thus expensive.
EVERYBODY wants left handed power, so scarcity is involved too inasmuch as the limited resources are heavily competed for.
This is, of course, an oversimplification; but you get the idea.
I wouldn’t use “built”. Somehow, I don’t think the M’s brass thought “hey, let’s screw A-Rod and Edgar while we make it easy for Junior” when Safeco was designed. Certainly it was designed as a pitcher’s park, with a bit of a short RF porch, but I don’t THINK they were trying to replicate Death Valley in LCF.
It seems more like a scenario where, after a few years, the overwhelming data shows the park hoses RHB more than they thought… so the park should be tweaked to make it a more evenly balanced park for RHB/LHB, just like how the batter’s eye was improved a couple years ago to everyone’s satisfaction (so it seems-I’ve heard nothing like the complaints I used to hear in the press since they put in the honeycomb).
Matsuzaka makes a lot of sense though I wouldn’t exactly overpay for his service, the M’s share in the Japanese market is already pretty good, Matz would have far more market effect for teams without big Japanese stars than the Ms (or Yankees) but of course, he’s a great player regardless.
I would think getting a 1B and making Sexon the DH make sense too… that or getting a DH. there are a few things that can go around. for example. they could sign Barry *gasp* Bonds… whom with a year at DH has a good chance of putting up a good healthy season and has no real long term commitments attached. if you can’t find good long term solution, settle for great short term onces. not medicoare mediuem term solutions.
In the 1B market, Lee from Korea might not actually cost THAT much. remember that this is a guy that was turned down by every team last year. if your smart and quick you might be able to get a pretty economic deal on him. and he’s a lefty. which seems to fit the M’s needs. other wise the market gets pretty junky from there own and you probably should just consider getting Barry Bonds….
I don’t think the desire for Matsuzaka is dominated by visions of marketing sugarplums in Japan. I think it’s the fact that they don’t have to negotiatte against any other team if they win the bid, and they end up controlling him for six years; plus, the bid comes out of another pile of money, so in terms of return on payroll investment it makes him by far the best value as far as the M’s are concerned. And the rotation is obviously the highest priority in the offseason.
Barry Bonds isn’t coming here. Well, maybe if the M’s broke the bank to get him, but would you really want to pay ARod money to get one year of Bonds? Bonds is either going to stick around with the Giants while he chases Aaron, or he becomes a DH for the Angels (his family is in SoCal, and Moreno has pledged he’s going to make a big move — and though I seriously doubt that is it, he is willing to cough up the cash if the right opportunity came along). Besides, despite the M’s flailing efforts in recent years, DH is the easiest position to fill on a team. There’s no reason to tie up a big chunk of your payroll there.
There’s a reason every team turned down Lee last year. It’s possible he’s turned a corner, but it’s just as possible he’s had one fluke year. In any case I don’t see what the fascination is — even if you brought his numbers straight across, vs applying the usual translation factors for Japanese league stats, he’s not that amazing. He’s not going to be the next Ichiro. He could be the next Matsui — but which one? You’re taking a big gamble.
I seem to remember an interview with Lincoln or Armstrong (one of the upper-echelon brass, anyway) where he admitted that they screwed up with respect to the winds: they built Safeco so that hitters would benefit from a wind out of the south. And in the central Sound winds are most commonly out of the south when averaged over the year, which was the basis for their decision. The problem is that the stronger winter winds dominate the average, and in the summer the winds are much more likely to be out of the north (which, note, is head-on for a ball hit to left but a cross-wind for a ball hit to right). I keep meaning to ask a friend at the UW Atmospheric Dept about that, because I know they have the data, but from observation that does seem to be the case.