Comments on: Undervalued Pitcher #2

By: Nate

Nate — Sat, 30 Sep 2006 00:08:37 +0000

Yeah, well, I almost hesitated to use the “name one pitcher..” line because it is so easy to get caught with an exception. Mea culpa. My larger point holds: teams should avoid pitchers with a history of labrum-repair surgeries as much as they should avoid giving out long-term contracts to veteran pitchers. The success rate is atrocious.

Dave, is the main advantage to Guzman (over, say, Meche) that he’s cheap?

By: eponymous coward

eponymous coward — Fri, 29 Sep 2006 16:59:08 +0000

That makes sense- but were Sexson not able to be moved or only able to be moved in a “please take our overpaid crap back or write us a big check” deal that you’d probably want to decline, it wouldn’t kill your plans to upgrade the rotation.

By: Dave

Dave — Fri, 29 Sep 2006 16:06:16 +0000

I’m spending a lot of money on someone else.

By: eponymous coward

eponymous coward — Fri, 29 Sep 2006 15:39:54 +0000

It occurs to me, Dave, that if your 4 and 5 were Lopez and Guzman, you’d only be signing Matsuzaka at the top of the rotation…and thus your need to trade Sexson to fit the roster in the salary budget (as you explained in your previous post) would be diminished. It’s hard for me to see Lopez costing more than 1-2 million, tops.

By: Edgar For Pres

Edgar For Pres — Fri, 29 Sep 2006 05:48:28 +0000

Guess I had it backwards.

By: ConorGlassey

ConorGlassey — Fri, 29 Sep 2006 05:13:54 +0000

Bela – IIRC (from “Saving the Pitcher”), elbow injuries affect control, shoulder injuries affect velocity.

By: BelaXadux

BelaXadux — Fri, 29 Sep 2006 03:45:25 +0000

I’m all in favor of dealing for Guzman. Moves like this—low- to mid-price deal for guys with physical talent but checkered career trajectories—are the actions which net major talent gains. As #30 says, getting the few good ones to be found this way is an art, and Bill B. is pretty artless, but. Labrum surgery and poor command seem to go together; certainly so for Meche. Still, if we got back a cheap Gil Meche clone for a #4 starter with whom we weren’t already totally out of patience, it would be a good-value move. Guzman is ahead of Feierabend who needs time in AAA, is surely better than Woods and Livingston, and offers a contrast in risks to Baek, with good stuff but poor command. I say do it.

By: Adam S

Adam S — Fri, 29 Sep 2006 02:31:45 +0000

I can’t find any extended minor league stats to see what his peripherals were like in Iowa this year. there’s no such resource on the web, is there? Not sure what you're looking for exactly, but Dave's link on Guzman's name as well as The Baseball Cube and Minor League Splits are pretty detailed. As a Cubs fan, I've been pretty frustrated but Guzman too, so I'm encouraged to hear Dave think he may turn the corner.

By: Todd S.

Todd S. — Fri, 29 Sep 2006 02:17:52 +0000

Cubs fan here. Guzman is indeed a fly ball pitcher who would benefit from a move to Safeco (from Wrigley). He’s the former jewel of the system, but injuries have meant that several other prospects have passed him up. I imagine the Cubs would deal him, probably at a low cost. I can assure you that one of this organization’s canny abilities is to sell low. Plus, the Cubbies have multiple young pitchers who may or may not be ready for prime time to compete for the back end of the rotation next year. Marmol, Mateo, Ryu, Gallagher, and Veal to name a few. Everyone seems to be writing Marshall into the starting rotation for 2007, but I’m not so sure he’ll make the cut.

But anyway…Guzman. Never underestimate the power of Dusty Baker to get into a young player’s head and destroy his confidence. Just getting Guzman out of the organization may do wonders for his psyche. I thought Dusty was going to ruin Rich Hill, too, but he seems to have worked things out. I think Guzman is a good guy to take a flyer on; he still has pretty good stuff. Got some questionable 2B prospects to peddle? Jim Hendry loves stocking up on 2B talent.

By: true_slicky

true_slicky — Fri, 29 Sep 2006 00:38:47 +0000

Yes! Let’s get a cheaper Meche!