Rafael Soriano, Relief Pitcher
Dave · October 27, 2006 at 7:36 am · Filed Under Mariners
According to John Hickey, who gives Lee Pelekoudas as his source, the Mariners are not considering moving Rafael Soriano to the rotation for 2007.
Because, you know, that would make too much sense.
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think they are fretting about his arm holding up?
Is it difficult for a pitcher to train through the off season & Spring Training to be a starting pitcher and then have to switch to be a reliever if they fail as a SP? If it is easy, then it couldn’t hurt to have Soriano try out for a spot in the rotation. They already know how successful he can be in the pen.
Stupid. He’ll earn too much in arbitration to make sense as a set-up guy, especially on a team (potentially) full of power bullpen arms that earn the league minimum. If he’s not starting, he needs to be flipped, which is sad because I really like him.
Not much the M’s do makes sense these days. My guess is they are either afraid he’ll break down as a starter or they have plans to trade him. I hope they don’t.
I don’t see that it matters at all. Any big trade they make this winter will almost certainly include him. If they don’t make any big trades, well, I just don’t see them patching all their holes with free agents, and then they may as well save his arm for the next year as they won’t be in serious contention anyhow.
Dave:
During the season when Soriano went on the DL with shoulder tightness, I asked then if that meant Soriano would drop out of consideration for the 2007 rotation. IIRC, you said that was likely the case.
So, is there really anything new in Hickey’s little blurb?
So, is there really anything new in Hickey’s little blurb?
This isn’t exactly breaking news, because as you note, this is what we expected all along. But the fact that it’s been confirmed is at least new, and I figured I’d give you guys a new thread this morning.
The new Sporting News hypothesizes a Beltre/Soriano for A-Rod swap as one of the more likely outcomes for the A-Rod theatrics in NYC. My take: Dream on.
always nice to have a new thread, especially when the only thing close to a Mariner rumor out there is Joel Sherman in the Post lumping the Ms into the ‘possible suitors’ list for Gary ‘You won’t want me there if I’m not happy’ Sheffield.
2. It’s far more difficult to switch from a SP to a reliever than the other way around because after pitching for short inning situations like Soriano has been doing for a few years, it’s very hard to get your arm stamina and just your arm to accept pitching around 6-8 innings every 5 days, whereas when your a starting pitching moved to the bullpen where you arm is always ready to pitch a whole bunch. It’s especially easy if you’re a SP to switch to being a long reliever due to being able to pitch for a long time in both roles.
I want healthy Raffy. I love watching him pitch.
I think that it’s interesting to look at Papelbon over in Boston and see the arguments folks are making there. Most interesting, to me, is the argument that by being on more of a schedule, he could develop more of a strengthening routine on off-days that might, in the end, protect his arm more than pitching the extra innings would hurt it.
Sheffield’s a yutz. If he didn’t want them to pick up the option, he shouldn’t have signed a deal with the option year on the end of it. It’s not like this is a surprise.
Think getting hit by a comebacker had anything do with the move? Maybe the M’s thought it would be asking too much from Rafael to change his pitching mentality, considering what happened the last time he was on a mound.
I agree Soriano as a set-up man in 2007 seems a waste– either trade or start him.
Dave, there are 2 other things I’m worried about more right now. Do you think there’s any chance the M’s will foolishly do either of the following?
1. Short-sightedly, and overconservatively, fail to offer arbitration to Meche (thus losing their draft-pick compensation) because they are afraid they would get stuck with him?
2. Keep Benuardo and Sexson, AND add another veteran corner outfielder as keeps being rumored, thus pushing Snelling to the bench?
Sorry if these were covered at the feed-wish I coulda been there.
I really wonder what the M’s offseason plans are. This could be a depressing winter.
1. Short-sightedly, and overconservatively, fail to offer arbitration to Meche (thus losing their draft-pick compensation) because they are afraid they would get stuck with him?
No. They’d take Meche at 1 year, $8 million, or whatever he’d likely get in arbitration. That’d be a very easy contract to move, even if they didn’t want to keep him. Having him accept arbitration would probably be their dream scenario, as they’d likely get more in trade for him on a one year deal than the compensatory draft pick would be worth.
2. Keep Benuardo and Sexson, AND add another veteran corner outfielder as keeps being rumored, thus pushing Snelling to the bench?
This could happen, even if they don’t keep Benuardo. I said at the feed that I think it’s probably 60/40 whether Snelling begins ‘07 as a starter. There’s certainly a pretty good chance that he begins the year as a fourth outfielder.
On the topic of rotation, if you want to get even more excited at the prospect of Matsuzaka, Jason Churchill put up a nice article over at Propsect Insider. I’m drooling.
Dave, have you ever seen any hard numbers comparing the risk of injury between starting and relieving? More innings vs. more frequent appearances? It seems like that would be difficult to quantify, since many guys head to the pen because they are injury prone, while more durable arms end up staying in the rotation (at least, there’s a link). The numbers would also be skewed for various other reasons, but it would still be interesting to find the patterns in a large sampling of pitchers, roles, and injuries.
With all due respect, I don’t understand why everyone is so anxious to turn Soriano into a starter. He only has 2 pitches, really, he has shown himself to be at least somewhat fragile, and his command is average to poor at times. I know this is heresy, but I would much rather see the M’s take a look at Putz as a starter, and try Soriano as a closer. Before you start flaming me, think about it – Putz is strong and apparently durable, and has three legit pitches, two of which are excellent. His command has improved to the point that I think he could get hitters out 3 times through the order, too.
I just read the Churchill article, and I am salivating all over my desk! What a scouting report! I also found it interesting that he mentioned he doesn’t beleive the the “blind” posting process is quite as blind as they say.
I hope and pray that we end up getting him here to the M’s!
So excited about the article that I forgot how to type apparently. Sorry for the typos!
Honestly, I don’t know how you could have watched the M’s in 2006 and come to the conclusion that J.J. Putz has three quality pitches and Rafael Soriano only has two.
20. Why waste a perfect piece like Putz as closer? For all we know (probably not including Dave) the whole reason Putz became a reliever was because he sucked as a starter. Soriano we all know was a fine starter but when he was a rookie the Mariners brought him up because they needed bullpen help. Besides I remember somebody metioned that before and I remember Dave shooting it down for some reason.
I pretty much saw Putz throw two pitches all year. Four-seam, and splitter. I’m sure he threw something else occasionally, but nothing that stood out.
When Soriano started in the big leagues a few seasons ago, wasn’t he thought of as fastball/slider, with a need to develop a good change-up?
Putz has a slider that is admittedly not great, but good enough to show it occasionally. As for Putz sucking as a starter I’m sure that’s true, but he also sucked as a reliever before he learned the splitter, which changed everything. Soriano only has two pitches if you don’t count his bad changeup.
You’re right, he did use a slider occasionally, but it wasn’t what you’d call a “plus” pitch.
Definitely not, but his FB and splitter are so good it doesn’t have to be.
I recall Soriano’s days as a starter, that by the 3rd time through the line-up, and sometimes just the second, the hitters had him all figured out. He may have added a pitch or improved since then, beyond the rookie jitters.
I would just like to go on record as saying Putz should remain a closer, and any thoughts of moving him to the rotation are crazy IMO.
JJ probably used the slider in less than 5% of his pitches this year. For most of the last two months of the season, he abandoned the splitter as well, and was essentially a one-pitch guy, throwing four seam after four seam by people.
J.J. Putz is the prototypical reliever. His success is directly related to the velocity bump he got from moving to the pen and his ability to go max-effort on every pitch. If you moved him into the rotation, he’d be 90-93 with a high fastball and 82-85 with a splitter that he can’t throw for strikes. Basically, he’d be Francisco Cruceta.
Soriano’s change-up is far more advanced as a third pitch than Putz’s slider. Neither of Soriano’s offspeed pitches rely on pure velocity as much as Putz’s do, and he could succeed, and has, with his repertoire in the rotation.
Rafael Soriano is a starting pitcher who is being used in the bullpen. J.J. Putz is a reliever who is being used in the bullpen.
Doesn’t much of what they decide to do with Soriano depend on the health of Mark Lowe?
If Lowe is healthy, why not give Soriano a shot at starting in ST?
Doesn’t much of what they decide to do with Soriano depend on the health of Mark Lowe?
According to Pelekoudas, and confirming what we expected, the decision has already been made.
If Lowe is healthy, why not give Soriano a shot at starting in ST?
Because there aren’t any local, white relievers to sign in free agency this winter?
Damn Pelekoudas!
But hey, if they want a local, white reliever to sign this winter, I’ll volunteer!
I throw righty and have a 72 MPH fastball and no breaking pitch (unless you count the very slight curve I get when I throw more sidearm). But I can hustle like nobody’s business, and I was born and raised locally!
don’t forget, the New & Improved (TM) Jeff Weaver is going to be available unless the Cards tie him up for 2007 ….
Unless you sign Schmidt as a reliever Dave! He’s a local white person! (Just joking).
35. But Weaver isn’t exactly local is he?
Dave,
What do you think Jeff Weaver would cost, and what do you think he’s worth?
Too much, and not a lot. He’s gone back and forth between being overvalued and undervalued about thirty times the past few years; thanks to his post-season performances and this weird belief that Dave Duncan “fixed him”, when all we really saw was natural regression to the mean (as we predicted would occur after the Angels dumped him), he’s going to get a decent contract from someone this offseason. He’s essentially a slightly above replacement level starter. The M’s would do well to fish in other waters.
That’s what I thought. Should be an interesting ST depending on who we sign/trade this winter as far as pitching goes.
Dave, with Soriano out of the picture for a rotation spot, is there anybody on the minor league free agent list (in addition to Tim Redding) who you would sign as a rotation candidate?
He’s essentially a slightly above replacement level starter. The M’s would do well to fish in other waters.
The last time we were presented with that option we signed Jarrod Washburn.
Jarrod Washburn is better than “slightly above replacement level”
The Mariners are dead to me.
you’ve mentioned that before. yet, still you are here.
sigh. Gas is lamenting Guillen again, and this somehow lead to wondering where they’d be if they’d just hung onto Omar all those years ago.
I crave pain.
…and Tino Martinez, and Jeff Nelson the first time, and Jason Varitek, and Derek Lowe…
(if looks could kill —> Mariners “brain trust”)
You could do that with any team though. Every team has the “players that got away”.
Expos/Nats in particular!
Jarrod Washburn is better than “slightly above replacement level”
The generally accepted number for replacement level is 15% below average for a starting pitcher. Jarrod Washburn is probably something like 10% below average for a starting pitcher. That’s pretty much the definition of “slightly above replacement level”.
Jarrod Washburn is better than “slightly above replacement level”
Would you prefer “somewhat below average”?
A pitcher 10% below MLB average can reasonably be expected to post 83 major league wins and over 1300 major league innings through age 32? Cool!
Dont want to turn this into a Washburn thread, but he is not the same pitcher he was when the Angels went to the World Series. His fastball seems to top off at about 89 mph and his off-spead stuff isn’t very good.
Overall I would say he has had a good career, but as of “right now” hes pretty much a slightly above-average pitcher. Maybe if the fatsball comes back a bit..but who knows?
I can’t say im shocked about Soriano not starting next season, im just surprised they made this choice so early. The M’s may likely have to fill 3 holes in the rotation, and you never know what will happen on the free agent market, so I thought they would at least give Soriano a look.
I’ll put it this way: I’m not sure “average” is the right phrase to use when we’re dicussing a distribution that doesn’t resemble a bell curve, but a J.
Probably a better way to put it is if you put Cha Seung Baek out there for 33 starts and Jarrod Washburn for 33 starts, but everything else stays the same (team, park, league, etc.), what should be the approximate difference in runs allowed? That’s what I guess you could call “slightly”.
At least Baek seemed to have some movement on his fastball..
[ot]
#46–
Bash in my brain,
And make me scream with pain,
Then kick me once again,
And say we’ll never part.
At least Baek seemed to have some movement on his fastball..
I’m sure it’s going to move quite nicely when it leaves the park on a regular basis.
The dude’s a Korean version of Ryan Franklin, without the rubber arm (go look at Franklin’s stats in Tacoma if you don’t believe me). I don’t care if he’s the 5th starter because he’s cheap, you don’t win pennants based on your 5th starter. and Jarrod Washburn’s not worth a 8.5 million+ premium over him, but Washburn’s likely to be better over those 33 starts.
Um … why?
Reluctant as I am to disagree with the estimable Dave, I think keeping him in relief does make sense. He doesn’t have good mechanics. He bends his arm too much and puts too much strain on his elbow and shoulder. He can go an inning every other day doing this, but I suspect being a starter would only put him on the injured list.
I think we’ll be saying goodbye to Soriano shortly anyways and trading him in a package for someone like Vernon Wells if I had to guess, and then he’ll become a great closer or a pretty good #5 starter for Toronto.
I just wish we could’ve at least TRIED him as a #5 starter before making the decision of not putting him in that spot in 2007.
Well, I’m torn. On the one hand this looks like another short-sighted dumb M’s move. On the other hand, he does have only two pitches and I remember the last time he was in the rotation. I guess my greatest fear is that the M’s are making the right move for the wrong reasons, which means they will use it as justification for making a lot more wrong moves.
HE DOES NOT HAVE ONLY TWO PITCHES
Jeez. Read the thread.