Free Agency
With the World Series ending, players are now eligible to file for free agency. They have fifteen days to do so following the last game of the season, so the filing period will end November 12th. So, for the next couple of weeks, you’re going to see headlines of non-news stories such as “Alfonso Soriano files for free agency.” Of course, this is about as newsworthy as “Alfonso Soriano rises from bed and ponders navel.” Players who are eligible for free agency almost always file. They want to test their market value, and in most cases, if they wanted to stay with (or were wanted by) their original team, they’d have already signed an extension.
This is also the period where we begin to hear the rumors of what players are asking for, as teams begin to get a feel for what a player thinks their value should be. A lot of the early numbers are going to be bogus; Alfonso Soriano’s not going to get $18 million a year, but it’s in his agents best interest to get that number out there now as they attempt to get him as much money as humanly possible.
One of the other annual traditions of the beginning of the free agent passage is that people start hauling out the old incorrect cliche that a player “is worth what the market will bear.” In an efficient economic model, this is generally true, but MLB’s salary structure isn’t anything like an efficient economic model, and it’s not supposed to be. Because of the existance of a massive player pool whose salaries aren’t determined by a free market, a rationale floor is created for the value of a certain production level. If a few general managers get together and decide that a 4 win player like Alfonso Soriano is worth $16 million per season, that doesn’t establish his actual value – it establishes that they suck at their jobs.
In general, the free agent market in the last few years has been significantly overheated, as teams have failed to hold a rationale line on market valued salaries, instead chasing after pennants by throwing good money after bad. It’s going to happen again this winter, and this might be the ugliest winter yet in terms of amazingly bad contracts being handed out to mediocre players.
When Randy Wolf starts signing for $30 million over three years, the correct response is not that the Mariners are just going to have to buck it up and get in the game if they want to contend, but instead, a well run organization would see their competitors wasting money and look for values elsewhere. There will be values on the trade market. There are values to be found in minor league free agency. There are often values in the low-end of the free agent pool.
If someone offers Jason Schmidt more than 3 years, $30 million (and they will, by a long shot), the Mariners need to have the stones to walk away. It’s not fear, it’s not a lack of commitment to winning, and it’s not an inability to read the market. Free Agency is a wildly inefficient market and, in general, a terrible way to build a roster. The Mariners would do well to let other teams spend themselves into oblivion. This is the worst free agent crop in recent memory, and it comes at a time when teams are flush with cash.
If the Mariners didn’t sign one free agent this offseason, I wouldn’t cry. There are other ways to build a roster. Better ways.
I honestly don’t think we’d sign a lot of high-priced free agents outside of Matsuzaka anyways.
I’ve always suggested that’s we could sign Seung-Yeop Lee as well, but that would be only if Richie Sexson and Rafael Soriano among others were traded to create payroll space.
The M’s have a good roster already and don’t exactly need to make it over with high-priced free agents, the M’s biggest action outside of the Matsuzaka bidding this offseason will probably be making trades and also signing cheap, veteran free agents such as Geoff Blum, Jose Cruz, Jr. and Greg Zaun.
I agree with you Dave, the last think this franchise, or any franchise for that matter, needs to do is throw money at the problem and sign a highly overpriced guy like Schmidt and then put on this propaganda about how the team is “committed to winning.”
I’d rather have the Mariners be committed to being smart than “winning”.
Because if they were smart, then they’d probably be where the Tigers and Cardinals are right now a long time ago.
In the World Series, and winnning.
last thing*, not last think
I agree with you Dave, but I wonder how much our local radio station (ARE YOU READING THIS, GAS MAN?) will understand when the team takes an intelligent tack and signs, and/or trades for individuals that aren’t “names?”
I’m not even sure that the FO listens to those members of the sports media who hold these views, but it seems counterproductive for them to whip up the fan base with charges that the organization isn’t committed to winning when they don’t bid the moon on players with “names.” If they are doing nothing more than selling ad time on the air, then no harm, no foul. It is the extent that the FO might feel pressure from the fan base because of this “discourse” that is most troubling.
I would hope the FO *is* feeling pressure from the fan base:
Attendance is falling. Playing in a mediocre division, the team played poorly and missed a good opportunity to get to the playoffs and energize fans. And the stadium is no longer a novelty — people won’t buy tickets just to experience a beautiful ballpark.
I’d like to know, Dave, how the “hot seat” mentality in the FO is going to affect the team’s player personnel moves. I worry that the FO is in a desperate times/desperate measures mode, and we’ll see Jason Schmidt (for the next four years) and Ted Lilly.
I’m still interested — when you get around to it — in a who’s who of the Mariner player personnel department. To back up your point about a “well-run organization” finding values in trades and minor leaguers, I’d like to know who exactly is responsible for what around there in terms of managing the baseball product.
Tom @ 1:
Geoff Blum?!? NOOOOOOOO!
There was a story over the weekend that Barry Bonds *may* file for free agency. That’s one that hasn’t even reached the level of “nonstory”.
Out of curiosity, what happens if someone who is eligible for free agency doesn’t file? Does the club get to renew him as if there was no such thing as free agency?
Does the state of the market mean that Jarrod Washburn’s contract is “reasonable” enough that he can be traded?
Gregg Zaun isn’t going anywhere. When Toronto didn’t exercise their option on Bengie Molina, they became committed to Gregg Zaun for 2007. He’s probably too good to be a backup catcher anyway.
If the Mariners didn’t sign one free agent this offseason, I wouldn’t cry.
True, but I’d still like to take a run at Barry Bonds. Imagine Beltre’s numbers with Bonds batting behind him.
That’s the problem: it’s a lot easier to sell a big free-agent name as a “solution” than to try to explain a philosophy of sensible (and slow) building through trades, the farm, and relatively cheap FA “non-names.” The sound bite and the quick-fix mentality both require something much shorter than that, and “Alfonso Soriano” is just about the maximum syllable count either one can tolerate. In a way this is understandable: after all the years of not participating in the offseason market for FA talent in any meaningful way, the team has lately created an expectation. As sensible as it might be, it’s going to seem counter-intuitive to a lot of fans that a 90 win team might dabble higher in the FA market than an 80 win team. And this despite the fact that the past M’s teams that made it to the postseason did so without any big FA names (unless you count Ichiro). Everyone who pays attention to the Yankees (and let’s face it, everyone pays attention to the Yankees) sees a lot of FA dollars chasing talent — and a lot of people conclude that’s a necessary part of doing business. Nevermind the relative practices (and success) of Oakland.
Bavasi has kind of created this problem for himself: to his credit he managed to convince ownership to open the purse strings (how much of that was Bavasi and how much was changed circumstances as perceived by ownership we may never know). But having done that, the fan base expects to see it continue — and the relative disappointment of those high-dollar acquisitions doesn’t blunt that expectation because “everyone” concludes that the problem was in the particular players acquired, not the acquisition strategy itself. Without the dollars to be the Yankees or the brains to be the A’s, the team is left to wander in a rather expensive desert (with the only solace being there are several other teams wandering around there too).
Yeah, it’s depressing. Sorry: the season is over, it’s the first weekday post-DST, and feels like frickin’ winter outside today.
True, but I’d still like to take a run at Barry Bonds. Imagine Beltre’s numbers with Bonds batting behind him.
Good Beltre, or “swing at everything outside and end up with a knee in the dirt” Beltre? Because it seems to a coin flip which one you’re going to get on any given month, night, or at-bat.
The kings of the one-year post-injury deals, Nomah and Thomas, are FAs too (though it sounds like that’s a formality for Thomas, who should be back with the A’s next year). Just saying, since they seem to be linked to Bonds in all the wire stories.
Of course, Dave, Matsuzaka isn’t a free agent, is he?
Personally, I think there’s also value in waiting for everyone to soak up their budgets on the first couple of waves of FA, and go bargain shopping later when the music stops and some free agents are left without chairs.
True, but I’d still like to take a run at Barry Bonds. Imagine Beltre’s numbers with Bonds batting behind him.
I’m going to assume you’re not being sarcastic. If that’s the wrong assumption, replace everything after this point with the appropriate smiley icon.
Well, we don’t have to imagine what Giants #3 hitters hit in 2006: it was .258/.313/.414. So, apparently, it’s quite possible to hit like a bad shortstop with a 1.000 OPS hitter behind you in the batting order. I’ve not seen convincing research that implies that who bats behind you changes your individual batting performance much.
I’m also not convinced Barry will come back in 2007 (and I think if he does, it’s with SF as a part-timer). The Mariners also have a surplus of corner OF/1B/DH types, and adding one who, while still a productive hitter, is clearly fading, has significant injury history and risk, has no defensive value at all, isn’t going to be cheap, gets to switch leagues the first time, oh, and has a freight train full of off-field baggage AND will turn your clubhouse into a media circus, is a peculiar way to address this team’s problems- which are very clearly focussed around pitching and figuring out a way to get rid of the position player logam at the left end of the defensive spectrum at 1B/DH/LF, and only tangentially around offense (the Mariner offense is league-average when you put it in league-neutral context, and I think the Beltre/Betancourt/Lopez/Reed/Doyle group of players will help improve that as a group in 2007, and move it up a notch, even adding in some decline from older players).
The biggest problem is this:
Say you have the choice between a 3 win guy at $5 million/year and a 5 win guy at $15 million/year.
Clearly, the 3 win guy is the better bargain, but when you’re competing with teams that are willing to hire the 5 win guy, you may be “ahead” $10 million/year, but you’re also behind 2 wins. Multiply that by however many moves a team makes, and sure, you can put up a decent, profitable team, but one that probably won’t make the playoffs without an implosions by some other team.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying free agency is always the best way to build a winner, but I do believe there are cases, especially in a tight division like the AL West should be the next few years, where a team can justify “overspending” on a free agent that can push them over the competition.
Personally, if we were to add a circus at DH, I’d far rather it be Manny than Barry.
And Aaron — the thing you’re forgetting is that you can go out and add two 3-win guys, if you have the holes to fill, and still have another $5 mil in the bank account to help you do stuff elsewhere.
It’s going to happen again this winter, and this might be the ugliest winter yet in terms of amazingly bad contracts being handed out to mediocre players.
And in that light, Jayson Stark mentioned on KJR today that revenue-sharing has been restructured in the new labor agreement to act as an INCENTIVE to spend.
Uh-oh.
The good news is that Richie Sexson and Ben Broussard look better as trade fodder in that environment.
I’m just glad that Meche filed for free agency already on the first day. The sooner he gets from his contract with the Mariners the better.
And Aaron — the thing you’re forgetting is that you can go out and add two 3-win guys, if you have the holes to fill, and still have another $5 mil in the bank account to help you do stuff elsewhere.
You can do that up to a point, as you’re taking up 2 roster spaces to replicate the production the other team is getting out of 1 roster space. There’s got to be a happy medium somewhere in there…
Say you have the choice between a 3 win guy at $5 million/year and a 5 win guy at $15 million/year.
You take the 3 win guy, and it’s not even close.
Clearly, the 3 win guy is the better bargain, but when you’re competing with teams that are willing to hire the 5 win guy, you may be “ahead†$10 million/year, but you’re also behind 2 wins. Multiply that by however many moves a team makes, and sure, you can put up a decent, profitable team, but one that probably won’t make the playoffs without an implosions by some other team.
There’s not a team in the world that can afford to “multiply” their 5 win/15 million player many times over. They run out of payroll room very, very quickly.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying free agency is always the best way to build a winner, but I do believe there are cases, especially in a tight division like the AL West should be the next few years, where a team can justify “overspending†on a free agent that can push them over the competition.
Remember, I’m the guy who suggested trading for Manny Ramirez and inheriting his $19 million salary. There’s absolutely a case to be made for spending significant money, above and beyond a $2 million per marginal win plateau, on elite, all-star talent. We’ve been calling for the M’s to do this for years, lobbying for guys like Vladimir Guerrero, Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre, J.D. Drew, Kevin Millwood, and now Daisuke Matsuzaka and Manny Ramirez.
However, if you’re going to spend elite money, it better be on elite talent. And Jason Schmidt and Carlos Lee just don’t fit the bill.
#9–the season is over, it’s the first weekday post-DST, and feels like frickin’ winter outside today.
“The Major All-Stars begin play on Nov. 2 at 4 a.m. ET with an exhibition game against the Yomiuri Giants. The All-Star Series officially begins on Nov. 3 at 4 a.m. at the Tokyo Dome. All of the games can be heard live on MLB Radio.”
Personally, if we were to add a circus at DH, I’d far rather it be Manny than Barry.
For some reason when I saw that I read “cactus” for “circus”… and on further reflection, I still think it’s more appropriate: entirely immobile, and painful to be around. And given the choice of those cacti, I’d take Manny too. He’s the more entertaining — and less hydroponically tainted.
hello world
Dave,
How then do the M’s fill the significant holes in their rotation assuming FA isn’t the way (I think you’re right that the M’s will not offer even close to what other teams will for Schmidt)? It does not look good at the SP position for next year. Do the M’s just say “we’re not overpaying for SP in FA”, admit that they will simply not have a good rotation next year, and then invite a slew of veteran pitchers to spring training and hope for the best from them/their farm system? It just doesn’t look good for next year…..perhaps you can make me feel better.
I agree with basically all of what Dave has to say here. But the question I always am curious about is ‘Where are the undervalued players?’. I mean, everybody wants starting pitching. Everybody wants bullpen help. Everybody wants slugging corner outfielders and 1st and 3rd basemen. Everybody wants up-the-middle players that can actually hit. All of these things will cost dearly in trade or be looking for sterling FA contracts.
On the other hand, we can look at last year and think about where the value was. Frank Thomas and Nomar Garciaparra both worked out brilliantly. Alex Gonzales got 2.7 WRAP3 for Boston on a cheap one-year contract, which I think was one of Boston’s strongest moves last offseason. But other than that, how does a team add cheap wins, other than ‘not have a sucky farm system’?
First of all, Seung-Yeop Lee is no longer available (signed a 4 year extension with the Yomiuri Giants), so he is not an option.
Ms will probably go after Igawa of the Hanshin Tigers, who is a pretty stable SP but unproven in the Majors, but he could be a bargain like Johjima. Other than that, there are too few options the Ms can go after without wasting too much money, but I do not think they do not have the luxury of saving the money and “waiting”…
and of course, leading the way in the fan letters to the editor today:
“
[just think of this as a run-on sentence…]
today:
“Pssst, Bill Bavasi: Want to keep your job? Then quickly sign Alfonso Soriano for right field and Jason Schmidt for the rotation.”
Schmidt will almost inevitably be overpaid. Even in an environment where stable starting pitching is so scarce as to command huge salaries for anybody that can give you 200 innings of 4.50 ERA starting, Schmidt is likely to be overpaid. However, I can almost see it. After all, you can’t just pull 200 innings of 4.50 starting off a tree.
Soriano, however, is just a huge disaster waiting to happen. There’s not actually a massive shortage of corner outfielders that can hit, so when you pay a star or superstar’s salary for a corner outfielder’s bat, you better be getting Manny Ramirez or Vlad Guerrero. And Alfonso Soriano is not Manny or Vlad. Not even a little.
Bonds or Ramirez will hit regardless of who hits behind or in front of them. Therefore get one or both.
Schmidt will be a decent to well above average pitcher for the next couple of years barring injury. Therefore get him if you get Bonds or Ramirez because with one of those two you’re already a contender if you’re the Mariners.
Overpay him if you get Bonds or Ramirez. Overpay him more if you get both Bonds or Ramirez. Don’t get Schmidt at all if you get neither Bonds or Ramirez.
What I’m saying is, depending on what you do before you try to sign Schmidt, Schmidt is either useless or a person you can’t live without.
Make that “overpay him more if you get both Bonds and Ramirez.”
I keep mentioning this guy, and he will be posted: Kei Igawa of the Hanshin Tigers. He will be worth the likely fees and salary (he REALLY has wanted to jump to MLB for the last two years) and he might be better than that, even if he doesn’t have the potential of Matsuzaka.
Another fine Japanese starting pitcher going free agency is Kuroda of the Carp (he had an increadible year, winning the ERA crown with a mediocre defense in an extreme hitter park). He may have as much to offer as anyone.
Check them out: the Mariners’s FO must know something about them both, and have some sort of interest.
a haiku:
Please USSM,
Daisuke Matsuzaka,
Please tell us what gives…
🙂
Kuroda is not a free agent anymore; he resigned with Hiroshima.
From Baseball Prospectus, Nov 5 Week in Quotes:
“We’ve been candid with teams about where we would want to go, or more importantly where we would not want to go. And you’ve probably seen the response to that.”
–Scott Boras, agent of Japanese hurler Daisuke Matsuzaka
——————
“Two things there. The money is ridiculous and Scott Boras represents him.”
–an AL GM who declined to bid on Matsuzaka
But Bavasi likes Boras. They’re friends.
“If the Mariners didn’t sign one free agent this offseason, I wouldn’t cry. There are other ways to build a roster. Better ways.”
Unfortunately, nothing about the organization leads me to believe that they aren’t going to sign SOMEONE from free agency, just to show casual fans that they are ‘doing something’. If even they pull of a couple trades to fill holes, I don’t think they have the guts to not sign any free agents. The situation appears similar to the Beltre-Sexson winter (re: need to make a splash) although perhaps not as desperate.
So if they don’t get Schmidt, Zito or whatever ‘name’ player they’re going after, I imagine we’ll still get a couple of classic Everett-type signings, e.g. Darin Erstad or Luiz Gonzalez (World Series experience baby!)